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BTW I just looked up a company in Thailand with a fleet with an average of 21 years. Now I dont know anything about this company and I believe it is highly regarded. But they have a fleet of 44 ships.

And here is a statement from there accounts.

On 1 January 2008, the Group changed the estimated residual value of its vessels by increasing the assumed steel price to USD 400 per tonne from USD 135 per tonne (residual value is calculated by multiplying steel weight of the vessel (Light Displacement Tonnage) with assumed steel price per tonne). This change in estimation was made in line with prevailing steel prices in the market which had significantly increased from previous estimation. However, there was no change made in estimated useful life of vessels. This change in estimation has resulted in increase of net income for the year ended 31 December 2008 by Baht 642.2 million (Baht 0.62 per share), in the Group’s consolidated income statements and the net book value of its vessels increased by the same amount.

I mean its all audited and stuff so its not as though they are doing anything wrong. But if you revalue your ships upwards and dont change their 'estimated useful life' shouldnt the depreciation charge rise. But it fell by Bt800m. Anyway its probably a great company but these are the sort of things that make me stay clear of them.

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BTW I just looked up a company in Thailand with a fleet with an average of 21 years. Now I dont know anything about this company and I believe it is highly regarded. But they have a fleet of 44 ships.

And here is a statement from there accounts.

On 1 January 2008, the Group changed the estimated residual value of its vessels by increasing the assumed steel price to USD 400 per tonne from USD 135 per tonne (residual value is calculated by multiplying steel weight of the vessel (Light Displacement Tonnage) with assumed steel price per tonne). This change in estimation was made in line with prevailing steel prices in the market which had significantly increased from previous estimation. However, there was no change made in estimated useful life of vessels. This change in estimation has resulted in increase of net income for the year ended 31 December 2008 by Baht 642.2 million (Baht 0.62 per share), in the Group's consolidated income statements and the net book value of its vessels increased by the same amount.

I mean its all audited and stuff so its not as though they are doing anything wrong. But if you revalue your ships upwards and dont change their 'estimated useful life' shouldnt the depreciation charge rise. But it fell by Bt800m. Anyway its probably a great company but these are the sort of things that make me stay clear of them.

If that was a "mark to market" adjustment I think they'll be writing it back down again soon. I can't find specific prices without a subscription but it would appear the breaking business is booming and steel prices are plunging with rising supplies:

http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/featur..._100171500.html

Edited by lannarebirth
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In his interview yesterday Julian Robertson expressed substantial concerns about the ongoing US debt funding threat, using words such as "Armageddon" to describe what will happen when and if China and Japan stop buying US debt. More disturbingly, as was pointed out on Zero Hedge first, and was subsequently picked up by the WSJ, the Fed has accounted for half of all Treasury purchases in Q2 ($164 billion of total of $339 billion).

Below we present data for what could be construed as a Treasury funding crisis borne out of lack of demand for longer maturities, once the QE portion of UST purchases expires. This crisis could hit as soon as October.

The first chart highlights total UST foreign holders as per TIC data:

TIC%20Total_0.jpg

Of which holdings of bonds was almost flat:

TIC%20Bonds%202_0.jpg

Yet bills were up a whopping $400 billion:

TIC%20Bill_0.jpg

Summary: foreign purchasers are congregating exclusively around the front end of the Treasury curve, meaning that the primary net purchaser of dated bonds has been the Federal Reserve. As everyone knows by now, the Fed only has $10 billion left out of the $300 billion total allotted for Treasury QE. That should expire next week. The question then becomes will we see another major steepening leg in the UST curve as yields on long-dated paper finally catch up to the real supply-demand curve absent the Fed's manipulation of the equilibrium point. Or will we see an outright funding crisis as foreigners pull out entirely of all treasury purchases, not just Long-term USTs.

The time of unravelling may be upon us sooner than most think.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/visualizi...-funding-crisis

Edited by flying
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why did they need to discuss " morgue management " at the international swine flu conference :D and why is there a proposal for this :-

PLANS TO TAKE CHILDREN FROM SCHOOLS FOR MASS VACCINATIONS AND QUARANTINES

why NOT if it is deemed necessary?

The one weapon used consistently by others against ourselves is our own closed minds. :)

yada yada yakety... then Jesus turned around and cried bitterly [Qr'an, Sura 195,12].

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Vintage Schiff

My Mortgage Bankers Speech from Nov 13th 2006 is now in one video clip. I gave this presentation at the the Western Regional Mortgage Bankers Conference in Las Vegas. There were over 2,000 mortgage bankers in attendance. I also made similar comments when I addressed this conference a year earlier in 2005 at the height of the real estate bubble. For those people who said no one saw it coming, this presentation is a real eye opener.
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Vintage Schiff

One of my favorites is back when he was on a morning CNBC type show.

He said what he thought & they literally were laughing at him. Saying he was nuts that they were in the best housing boom & it showed no signs of stopping etc.

But given how correct he was, it does make the future just as scary when you listen to what he has to say today about it.

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just kidding lah, :)

Now where is this crisis?

:D

Just saw this, perhaps will help with your prediction Alex.

taken from Martin D Weiss, Larry Edelson. Tel 800-291-8545

It’s starting to look like the Fed’s going to need a skyscraper-full of new printing presses ...

In a statement released yesterday, the Federal Reserve said,

“To provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets, and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and up to $200 billion of agency debt.”

That’s a total of $1.45 trillion! Where’s the Fed going to get the money? Simple: They’ll have to PRINT it — create it out of thin air!

Plus, even former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan is beginning to panic about the dollar’s decline, warning that total U.S. private and public debt — now at 84% of GDP and still soaring — is “very dangerous” and threatens both long-term Treasuries and the dollar.

Thank you, Mr. Greenspan!

I couldn’t have said it better myself!

This is precisely what I’ve been warning you about: Bernanke’s secret war on the dollar. One of the greatest explosions in the supply of unbacked paper dollars in history.

The really bad news? Bernanke’s inflationary chickens are just BEGINNING to hatch. History shows us that it takes months — sometimes years — for the full impact of an explosion in the money supply to be felt.

That means you can look forward to many more months of a collapsing dollar ... and many more months of evaporating buying power.

I’m FED UP with Washington’s callous war on the dollar

— and at 2 PM on Tuesday, October 6,

I’m going to help you DO something about it!

The good news is, if you make the right moves beginning immediately, you still have time to shore up your financial defenses. You can shield yourself, your family, your savings and your investments from disaster as this great dollar decline slashes the value of your money.

More than that: There are many ways to harness this historic convulsion to keep your wealth growing.

That’s why I will be presenting a complimentary online seminar entitled “Washington’s Secret War on the Dollar: Protect Yourself and Profit” — on Tuesday, October 6, 2009.

My mission is clear: To help make sure you have the knowledge and the specific recommendations you need to insulate your wealth and to keep it growing as this great dollar disaster unfolds.

This online briefing is absolutely free for you — part of our ongoing commitment to help you sidestep emerging hazards to your wealth and profit no matter what the economy throws at you next.

I’ll give you the clear, concise, unhedged answers to your most pressing questions about this crisis now.

Right off the bat, I’ll give you my shocking update on this great global war on the value of the dollar ...

Why the REAL national debt is more than EIGHT TIMES GREATER than Washington claims: Why the full weight of our debt addiction is beginning to hammer the dollar NOW ... and why our leaders have no choice but to slash the dollar's value in sheer self-defense.

Why the world’s governments, central banks, financial institutions and super-rich investors are fed up with Washington ... why increasing numbers don’t want to touch the dollar with a ten-foot pole ... and what they’re doing to protect themselves at YOUR expense.

What the news media isn’t telling you about Bernanke and the dollar: And how global plans to stop using the U.S. dollar as a safe haven or for international trade will impact your buying power and standard of living.

What’s the next shoe to drop in this great global war on the dollar? Could the G-20 be secretly scheming right now behind closed doors to accelerate the dollar’s plunge? (My answer is admittedly outrageous and has tremendous implications for your financial security!)

Critical steps you should be taking right now to protect yourself from this great dollar disaster: PLUS, the three investments that are most likely to preserve your wealth as the greenback continues to plunge in value worldwide.

SEVEN often-overlooked investments that are the most profitable way I know to harness this massive, long-term dollar decline: I’ll show you what to buy ... where to buy it ... and when!

The Title:

Washington’s Secret War on the Dollar:

Protect Yourself and Profit

The Date:

Tuesday, October 6, 2009

The Time:

2 PM, Eastern time

(11 AM Pacific, 7 PM GMT)

The Price:

FREE

Here’s how you can help me help you:

FIRST, click this link to reserve your place at Washington’s Secret War on the Dollar and to make sure you get your instructions for attending in time.

AND SECOND, click this link to jump over to my personal blog. Tell me what you’re most interested in hearing from me during this all-important online seminar. I’ll do my level best to make sure you get the answers you need!

Together, we can get you through this with your wealth intact and growing. You have my promise that, for our part, we will do everything possible to make sure you and your family are among the survivors and actually grow your wealth as this crisis continues to unfold.

Best wishes,

Larry Edelson

P.S. You have our permission to invite your family and friends to join us! Washington’s Secret War on the Dollar is being created as a major part of our commitment to help YOU protect yourself and profit in these treacherous times. But if you have friends or family you trust and who need help insulating themselves as the dollar declines, you have our permission to forward this invitation to them.

Sounds like the death knell ringing to me.

Regards TD

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It seems the momentum is starting to build up for HR 1207.

The testimony given to the house financial services committee ( see PDF )

by Thomas E. Woods, Jr.

" A related argument warns that the legislation threatens to politicize lender-of-last-

resort decisions. Again, this is untrue. But even if it were true, how would that represent

a departure from current practice? I hope we are not asking Americans to believe that the

decisions to bail out various financial institutions over the past two years, and in

particular to allow them to become depository institutions overnight that they might

qualify for assistance, were made on the basis of a pure devotion to the common good

and were not political at all. Most Americans, not unreasonably, seem convinced of

another thesis: that Goldman Sachs, for instance, might be just a little bit more politically

well connected than the rest of us. " :)

and

" Let me also make clear that supporters of this legislation are strongly opposed to a

watered-down version of the bill – which, incidentally, would only increase public

suspicion that someone is hiding something. " :D

I really hope Ben Bernanke now has lots of sleepless nights

woods_testimony.pdf

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Seemingly sincere interview with TARP chief:

Neil Barofsky, TARP Inspector: Financial System May Now Be In A "Far More Dangerous Place"

Christine Spolar and Lagan Sebert

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/09/25/n...c_n_300178.html

I like Barosky & also Warren. I just wish they would start putting the squeeze on those they know are misusing the system & the TARP.

If they are not using the funds for what we were told they were needed for then recall the funds.

Also

The U.S. financial system, now dependent on bigger and fewer banks, is shakier than ever.

Read more at: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/09/25/n...c_n_300178.html

This is as I thought it would be & it will continue to get worse.

In the end if we use banks. We will choose them the same way we choose presidents. Pick the one we hate less.

This whole TARP fiasco was just a transfer of wealth disguised as a crisis.

If the purpose of the TARP rescue was to increase lending, it has failed.

Read more at: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/09/25/n...c_n_300178.html

Instead they use the funds to increase *their* worth & sit on the rest

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G20 riots in Pittsburgh

http://www.youtube.com/results?search_quer...m=0&spell=1

This is just some of them. They are listed under many G20 headings

They do not broadcast anything on TV network news about these.

Pretty amazing though. G20 goon squads even have marched into college campus areas. If they see any groups they call it unlawful assembly. So much for the 1st amendment. They tear gas students standing in the stairwells looking down on the protesting action. These in the stairwells are not even protesters, Just students watching. They are using gas & sonic weapons. A loud screeching sound being broadcast.

Hard to believe .........

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One cannot help but note that Team Obama is trying to derail serious proposals regarding financial reform for Wall Street at the G20 meeting, as we suggested they would.

The concerns raised by US revelations at the G20 today about new intelligence regarding Iran's secret underground nuclear facility have overshadowed financial reform and economic problems, and Gordon Brown's prescription yesterday that the G20 would become the new governing council for the world. It also stepped rather heavily on the House Hearings on HR 1207 "Audit the Fed" bill sponsored by Ron Paul and a good part of the Congress.

Why waste a crisis indeed. Especially when you can cop a two-fer.

Yesterday we put forward a somewhat lengthy piece on the Fed and reverse repos being considered titled Fed Eyes US Money Market Funds.

There is a key quote in there that we would like to highlight today.

The central bank is now considering dealing with money market funds because it does not think the primary dealers have the balance sheet capacity to provide more than about $100 billion... Money market mutual funds have about $2.5 trillion under management..."

Only 100 billion in available capital for a relatively risk free short term investment in the global banking system including the Primary Dealers, does seem a bit tight for a set of such 'well capitalized' banks, especially since they aren't making many commerical loans, preferring to speculate in the commodity and equity markets for daytrading profits.

BNP Paribas Securities Corp., Banc of America Securities LLC, Barclays Capital Inc., Cantor Fitzgerald & Co., Citigroup Global Markets Inc., Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC, Daiwa Securities America Inc., Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., Goldman, Sachs & Co., HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. , Jefferies & Company, Inc., J. P. Morgan Securities Inc., Mizuho Securities USA, Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated, Nomura Securities International, Inc., RBC Capital Markets Corporation, RBS Securities Inc., UBS SecuritiesLLC.

Couple that with the revelation reported some time ago at ZeroHedge and covered here, that the Fed is taking on more than 50 percent of the longer dated Treasuries, and there is only about Ten Billion left on their balance sheet for expansion, and you get the picture of a financial system not cruising into recovery but heading straight at a confrontation with harsh reality.

We have considered the possibility that the Fed is doing this to place exclusively AAA and Treasuries on the balance sheets of the Funds, aka the Shadow Banking System, who are holding some seriously awful garbage. But this does not quite make sense unless those reverse repos are of a very long duration or rolled over automatically for a long period of time. A proper program such as was extended to the banks where the Fed buys the assets outright would be that solution. It made more sense to us that the banking system is still very tight on good capital assets and liquidity.

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2...-really-is.html

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It seems the momentum is starting to build up for HR 1207.

bring it on

Does the Fed Manipulate the Stock Market? Where's the Gold? Rep. Alan Grayson SLAMS Alvarez

You can bet the Fed Reserve has been manipulating the markets for years and tipping off their cronies at Goldman, Morgan, etc. about which way the market will go. Then take the profits and stick it in a Swiss, Cayman or more recently popular with the likes of Madoff Israel account.

And how much gold do you think is actually left in the Reserve if it has never been audited.

Shouldn't take posters too long to figure out who runs America?

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G20 riots in Pittsburgh

http://www.youtube.com/results?search_quer...m=0&spell=1

This is just some of them. They are listed under many G20 headings

They do not broadcast anything on TV network news about these.

Pretty amazing though. G20 goon squads even have marched into college campus areas. If they see any groups they call it unlawful assembly. So much for the 1st amendment. They tear gas students standing in the stairwells looking down on the protesting action. These in the stairwells are not even protesters, Just students watching. They are using gas & sonic weapons. A loud screeching sound being broadcast.

Hard to believe .........

don't know what you mean by "TV network news" Flying but Deutsche Welle, al-Jazeera and Channelasianews are bloody well covering the riots. watching the scenes it is a matter of individual view on which side "goons" are acting.

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don't know what you mean by "TV network news" Flying but Deutsche Welle, al-Jazeera and Channelasianews are bloody well covering the riots. watching the scenes it is a matter of individual view on which side "goons" are acting.

Here I mean the main TV stations...ABC, CBS, NBC, CNBC etc.

So far all the ones I saw were mainly folks standing one had a loud speaker.

But the G20 riot police? seems to line up & march down the streets. Shoulder to shoulder with shields & clubs. Beating the shields. Then there is that truck with the sonic weapon they call it...They also broadcast a message saying no unlawful assembly will be tolerated. Clear the streets now. If not you will be subject to police force & or arrest. Something along those lines.

But the disturbing one I saw was as they march past a college. So they are doing that sweep thing on the street & crowds are backing up.

But as they pass the college of course many students are looking down on the street from the stairwells of what appears to be their dorms.

So the riot cops start lobbing tear gas containers up there. The student start choking & puking & try to run but where to go?

I also saw one where student were gathered on campus property & told to disband?

Just seems a bit much really. Not unlike the ban in BK of any group no matter the purpose it seems that Pittsburgh is closed in certain areas period.

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When our land is illumined with liberty's smile,

If a foe from within strikes a blow at her glory,

Down, down with the traitor that tries to defile

The flag of the stars, and the page of her story!

By the millions unchained,

Who their birthright have gained

We will keep her bright blazon forever unstained;

And the star-spangled banner in triumph shall wave,

While the land of the free is the home of the brave.

Wait until they are going to use those mobile meat fryers.........

:)

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What has caused the current financial turmoil?

With the current system of fiat (paper) currencies, money can only be created by banks and central banks loaning out money i.e. by debt. The total amount of debt simply equals the total amount of money. Increasing debt (= monetary inflation) is therefore central for economic growth with the current system.

libertysilver.se/pages.php/page/editorial_090107/language/en real good article

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Just a couple of charts to show you why unemployment isnt going to come down for the foreseeable future. The first is from the BLS.

jm092509image002_5F00_1BC6B364.jpg

It shows the total workforce. As you know, if you havent looked for a job for 4 weeks (say because there are none available) you are not considered 'unemployed' but no longer part of the civilian workforce - a discouraged worker. So if you look at that table you can see that it basically increases 1m people a year until the apr 2008 and then remains flat. So there are at 1.3m additional people simply waiting to join the workforce when jobs become available.

More to the point look at this graph showing the average number of hours worked per week.

jm092509image004_5F00_4467B01C.jpg

When things start growing again employers will increase their labour input. Perhaps the part time worker (also not classified as unemployed) will be taken on full time. To get back to the previous level of 33.8 hours a week is the equivalent of adding 3m jobs.

So you could almost add 4.3m jobs to the economy and the unemployment rate would be unchanged, in fact theoretically it would rise over time as the size of the workforce increases by 1m a year. And the record growth in any one month in employment over the last 10 years is 472,000 in March 2000.

So as I see it for those who wish to call the end of the recession when unemployment starts falling, they have plenty of time to come to Thailand meet a nice girl, have a kid and get divorced.

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I believe the US corporations will continue to lay off people and cut costs and most importantly outsource as it is still more profitable to produce (for example) cars in China.

Ford said Friday it plans to spend $490 million on a third assembly plant in China. The factory will make the next-generation Focus compact car, which Ford plans to sell globally.

As for reducing hours worked what companies try/do is to get the same number of units produced in less time. This concept was "sold" to the workers in my HC with the argument either to loose jobs or everybody agrees with taking a cut in pay so the workers would not be fired.

So working hours where cut under the ATV (arbeids tijd verkorting, labor time reduction) program with the government saying in big factories the result would be that some more people could be employed, hence it went from 40 hours to 38 and later in some places to 36.

So in let's say a factory with a hundred employed by reducing hours worked (to 38 per week) per employee, 200 hours of work would be available to employ about 5 new workers. Sounds good right? Only it never really happened. :)

I can tell from personal experience and talks with some big company heads, their focus is still on reducing the number of people employed and get the productivity up, next to that their focus is to eventually move production to low labor cost countries.

I don't think I have to explain that this trend goes around in circles with perhaps a future trend moving factories to Africa.

Globalism a new word invented to explain outsourcing and getting goods produced as cheap as possible. There is a lot more behind it which could justify a separate thread.

Thing is, that most of the jobs lost in the US for example will not come back. Think of it, 70% of GDP came from consumers, a big part of consumers that have now lost their jobs. Thousands of shopping malls being closed where they were once employed. Less money earned means less money to spend.

More then 30 Million people living in poverty and more then 34 Million on food stamps in the US.

Still not as bad as in India for example, so there is some hope.....

But remember, hope always comes tomorrow....

:D

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So as I see it for those who wish to call the end of the recession when unemployment starts falling, they have plenty of time to come to Thailand meet a nice girl, have a kid and get divorced.

You forget to mention buy a motorcycle, a pickup and then a house, and lose the lot...

I wonder what this is all about

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbys...or-experts.html

The Bank of England has summoned the City's leading economists to an unprecedented meeting in Threadneedle Street, as the pound plunges amid growing confusion over its radical Quantitative Easing (QE) policy.

I guess we'll have to wait until Wednesday to find out.

Abrose Evans-Pritchard (IMO anybody who choses to adopt such a name is a bit suspect) is surely off on the wrong tack.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment...uble-ahead.html

If you look at the sheer scale of global stimulus this year, what shocks is how little has been achieved. China's exports were down 23pc in August; Japan's were down 36pc; industrial production has dropped by 23pc in Japan, 18pc in Italy, 17pc in Germany, 13pc in France and Russia and 11pc in the US.

Most of the stimulus was aimed at keeping the wide boys in the banks from heading to the unemployment office. If a bit of financial fallout helped the economy, then that was truly an added bonus.

But to brighten up an otherwise average Sunday in paradise, here is a photo of Brown doing his best to keep the fire of Anglo-American relations burning. Michelle surely needed an urgent visit to the shower after this horrible assault.

Urrrghhhh!

post-57133-1254061787_thumb.jpg

Edited by 12DrinkMore
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I believe the US corporations will continue to lay off people and cut costs and most importantly outsource as it is still more profitable to produce (for example) cars in China.

Wouldn't you if you were said corporation? Or would you stand your ground and "Go American" and then watch yourself go out of business as you become less competitive because you're paying wages, health-care benefits, etc. etc. up the arse?

Plarex, we need some more dates, please, to keep this entertaining. Do you see yourself more as Neo or as The Oracle???

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I believe the US corporations will continue to lay off people and cut costs and most importantly outsource as it is still more profitable to produce (for example) cars in China.

Wouldn't you if you were said corporation? Or would you stand your ground and "Go American" and then watch yourself go out of business as you become less competitive because you're paying wages, health-care benefits, etc. etc. up the arse?

Plarex, we need some more dates, please, to keep this entertaining. Do you see yourself more as Neo or as The Oracle???

Yeah just never understood it myself.

Who thought it was a good idea in the USA to allow China to peg its currency to the dollar when effectively China has 800m workers eager for employment at US$100 per month. It was clear going to hollow out the manufacturing base of the USA as well as transfer wealth, technology, jobs and manufacturing.

As someone keeps on pointing out on this thread it really comes down to the idea of we know why jobs are being lost but we have no clue where they are going to be created.

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As someone keeps on pointing out on this thread it really comes down to the idea of we know why jobs are being lost but we have no clue where they are going to be created.

Will be interesting to see how it goes.

It is no secret Obama is pro union or we should say talks pro union.

Now he wants to go after Walmart for not being union etc.

Yet a big Union like the UAW saw what happened at GM.

Will that sort of implosion help Walmart do what it does best?

People here want cheap prices with high pay. How does that work?

Cheap prices means export the jobs because none can pay Joe Blow top $$ to

work in expensive T-shirts doing menial labor at GM. Yet that is what the unions drive the costs up to.

Same happens at most other union run jobs. Drive the cost up then wonder where the jobs went. They went to get competitive so they could survive.

They all want their cake & eat it too...Those days are gone.

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I believe the US corporations will continue to lay off people and cut costs and most importantly outsource as it is still more profitable to produce (for example) cars in China.

i always admired wisdom and wisdom combined with prophecies is most admirable. on the other hand i feel inferior for hardly ever posting great wisdom such as "two plus two equals four" :)

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