Financial Crisis

[LaoPo]

The Coming Sovereign Debt Crisis

http://www.forbes.com/2010/01/13/sovereign...tha-bykere.html

LaoPo

what did Roubini say that is not known by every Bill, Buck, Hank and Joe?

The difference is Naam, he gets paid to tell everybody, lots of it, and I've heard rumors that the Ladies are very fond of this chap, so he MUST be doing something good, ain't he?

LaoPo

why is nobody paying us? because we are ugly and they ladies do not like us?

...you think so?

Yes, maybe you're right

This -financial- world is unfair.

LaoPo

[hhgz]

" the published numbers really are what they "seem". I don't believe any of the official numbers from the US, much less China's."

Would you accept the official numbers if they came from Germany?

[cloudhopper]

" the published numbers really are what they "seem". I don't believe any of the official numbers from the US, much less China's."

Would you accept the official numbers if they came from Germany?

I have no idea if the German government massages their official numbers. It's evident to me that the US and China does however in an effort to perpetuate their mutual Ponzi scheme i.e. mercantilist currency pegging enabling a US credit bubble blown by Chinese buying UST with their trade surplus. A good bit of it is going to unwind and both countries are going to suffer political and economic revolutions IMO.

[flying]

Well............

First Shiti Group yesterday

Citigroup Loses $7.6 Billion on Costs to Repay U.S.

Now BOA today........

Bank of America Posts Loss After Firm Repays Bailout

[LaoPo]

" the published numbers really are what they "seem". I don't believe any of the official numbers from the US, much less China's."

Would you accept the official numbers if they came from Germany?

Selbstverständlich = of course, self-evident

Pünktlichkeit = punctuality belongs to the Germans, and I'm not even German

LaoPo

[midas]

Well............

First Shiti Group yesterday

Citigroup Loses $7.6 Billion on Costs to Repay U.S.

Now BOA today........

Bank of America Posts Loss After Firm Repays Bailout

But it could have been worse

And i am pleased after the Massachusetts results that there could be even the smallest chance

the Americans are waking up.

[flying]

And i am pleased after the Massachusetts results that there could be even the smallest chance

the Americans are waking up.

Wish I could say the same.......

It is of course good that the majority be reduced but.....

This is just more of the same. The people just voted their dissension vote.

Which is basically how we ended up with a president with near zero experience.

Yet a smooth talker with tons of *hope & change* look at where that got us....

Pretty much deeper than the village idiot from Texas who preceded him.

As long as the people are given a choice they think the system works....

Never noticing the choice is no choice at all.

They the govt. like to make the people think they have a choice/voice

Politicians both Elephants & Donkeys all controlled by the same ring masters ultimately.

Edited January 21, 2010 by flying

[flying]

Why Not? Of course the ringmasters will never allow it.......

[midas]

Wish I could say the same.......

It is of course good that the majority be reduced but.....

This is just more of the same. The people just voted their dissension vote.

Which is basically how we ended up with a president with near zero experience.

Yet a smooth talker with tons of *hope & change* look at where that got us....

Pretty much deeper than the village idiot from Texas who preceded him.

As long as the people are given a choice they think the system works....

Never noticing the choice is no choice at all.

They the govt. like to make the people think they have a choice/voice

Politicians both Elephants & Donkeys all controlled by the same ring masters ultimately.

I know it’s onlya small step but it surely it’s good a reaction to politicians trying to push people over the line..?

What other means have they got other than at the ballot box to express their dissatisfaction ?

[Abrak]

According to Shadow Government Stats (SGS.com) the 'consensus' forecast for 4Q US GDP growth (to be announced Fri 29th) is annualized +4.2% (with some economists expecting as high as +6.0%.) When the initial number for 3Q was reported (3.3% I think) the consensus number for 4Q was +1.1%, so forecasts have been revised up.

However, there are a number of reasons that the number - assuming it turns out around consensus - is none too exciting.

1) 3Q GDP growth was revised down from +3.3% to +2.2% (after second revision) which means that the actual 4Q number is around +3.0% v. initial 3Q estimate.

2) This, or even the consensus forecast, is hardly spectacular against a backdrop of average quarterly growth over the last 30 years of 3.2% (SGS est.). By the time the 4Q initial figure is revised down, growth is likely to be broadly in line with this figure.

3) More importantly you usually see a very strong 'rebound' especially after a decent recession - really 6-9% GDP growth is usually the norm coming a couple of quarters after a recession.

4) Growth needs to be put in perspective - 4Q '09 real GDP is definitely below 4Q '08 and 4Q '07 GDP.

5) Numbers are being boosted by an 'inventory bounce' and the 'fiscal stimulus'. On a YOY basis this effect will be about +4.5% and QOQ about +1.2%. Both these factors will now be a drag going forward.

As far as I can work out the economic numbers are fairly meaningless at the moment. On the one hand numbers are showing growth and generally improving but, at the same time, they are not really showing a 'serious rebound' that would indicate a sustained recovery and are generally spluttering around somewhere slightly above their lows. So, for instance the SGS economist (generally a bear), sees the GDP growth number turning negative (double dip) again in the next two quarters while some others see the growth number and improving numbers as the start of a sustained recovery. Things like housing starts and car sales are better than they were but they are nowhere near like the sort of levels associated with a healthy economy. Most likely these growth figures will mark a peak.

[flying]

I know it’s only a small step but it surely it’s good a reaction to politicians trying to push people over the line..?

What other means have they got other than at the ballot box to express their dissatisfaction ?

No.....in many ways your correct & like I said to some degree I am also glad for it.

But what it creates is a stop & yes that is better than more forward movement in the wrong direction.

But in the end there will need to be something with more substance than stop & wrong direction.

[midas]

If they floated it would crash.

Actually it's going to crash anyway, along with their bogus economy.????

China seems to have achieved this phenomenal growth of 10.7%, but could someone

with a greater insight than me into the Chinese economy explain how they did this ?

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2010/01/20/...Homepagetopnews

I understood China had reached peak performance in the past mainly acting as the industrial

producer for US consumers, but we all know how muted that is at the moment.

I find it hard to believe that this level of economic activity could be

achieved internally when only 9 months ago there were documentaries showing vast areas of

empty factories and Chinese workers desperately looking for work ?.

Edited January 21, 2010 by midas

[samuibeachcomber]

maybe because they are awash with money and have been lending domestically to manufactures who have produced their goods only to have the chinese authorities store all these unsold goods for them aand so therefore fudge the GDP figures.As sure as night follows day the chinese are in for some crazy times,and i bet you the americans are watching carefully.Right now america and europe are technically bankrupt,except for the printing of money,all these economies would be in reverse gear going over a cliff.The japanese cupboard is bare too.THt leaves australia and korea with some cash,so not alot of people to buy all these chinese goods wasting away in warehouse.Its time for the world to wake up and realise that increased GDP is a furphy,it does nothing to enhance a persons living standards,you cant keep miking the cow when there's nothing left to milk.

[LaoPo]

China seems to have achieved this phenomenal growth of 10.7%, but could someone

with a greater insight than me into the Chinese economy explain how they did this ?

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2010/01/20/...Homepagetopnews

I understood China had reached peak performance in the past mainly acting as the industrial

producer for US consumers, but we all know how muted that is at the moment.

I find it hard to believe that this level of economic activity could be

achieved internally when only 9 months ago there were documentaries showing vast areas of

empty factories and Chinese workers desperately looking for work ?.

It's not black and white if you take exports to the US as a main factor into consideration, discussing China's growth .

China exports in 2009 were down 16 percent from 2008, and imports reached 1.01 trillion U.S. dollars, down 11.2 percent from a year earlier. But that's just one side of the coin since China's GDP rose 8.7 percent in 2009.

Many people forget how huge the local economy is if comparing to other western countries. Many think that China is floating on exports alone.

Of course exports are of enormous importance but not exclusively.

Yes, dozens of millions of workers were laid off and that was big news, worldwide. The point is that a gradually growing local economy also hired many millions of workers, again, but nobody reports about that.

A (minor and small) indicator last year was the sight in the streets and highways of southern Guangdong province (100 million people!); the gigantic stream of trucks with 40' containers diminished to a much smaller stream of trucks but now with just 20' containers.

That has changed to trucks with 40' footers again, meaning that exports are picking up and buyers are buying larger quantities also -again-.

In the same period, China installed enormous stimulus programs to urge the local population to start spending their large savings accounts, instead of sitting on it.

Chinese are no credit card spenders like many countries in the west. They use their money they have in the bank although their income is still far behind their western counterparts. But they still saved many many years and decades of the small incomes they made. 30% of income is the norm for family savings.

The government HAD to do something to make up for decreased exports but maybe the stimulus programs worked too well, resulting in a real estate bubble now since too many people were/are buying real estate, read: new larger houses.

In China there are still dozens of millions of houses (read: apartment buildings) which are over 30 to 40 years old without any owner's home associations; result: bad living conditions, neglected maintenance...I could go on. There are even still many buildings with up to 10 (!) floors WITHOUT elevators; can you imagine in the heat?

All these people see the newly built beautiful apartment buildings and since they had savings enough for a down payment (up to 20-25% in many cases), they want to move and applied for mortgages.

The stimulus plans of the government were too successful and the dragon of inflation showed it's face which could turn out in a nasty monster in this hige country.

To end, answering your question: YES, it was indeed local and internal consumption that made up for lost exports and in fact even more than that since national GDP grew with 8.7% in 2009.

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

maybe because they are awash with money and have been lending domestically to manufactures who have produced their goods only to have the chinese authorities store all these unsold goods for them aand so therefore fudge the GDP figures.As sure as night follows day the chinese are in for some crazy times,and i bet you the americans are watching carefully.Right now america and europe are technically bankrupt,except for the printing of money,all these economies would be in reverse gear going over a cliff.The japanese cupboard is bare too.THt leaves australia and korea with some cash,so not alot of people to buy all these chinese goods wasting away in warehouse.Its time for the world to wake up and realise that increased GDP is a furphy,it does nothing to enhance a persons living standards,you cant keep miking the cow when there's nothing left to milk.

You have quite an imagination. Have you ever been in Chinese factories ? I don't think so and there's no way a Chinese factory owner can load up his truck and drive to some store house to unload his unsold stock and ask for money from the Chinese government.

And if you think the Chinese bank authorities are stupid people, lending to even more stupid factory owners...forget it. They are probably better bookkeepers than most western bankers and rather let a weak factory owner go bankrupt than give him (any more) money.

Next to that China has the largest forex reserves in the world with US $ 2.4 TRILLION; and how much for Korea/Australia ?

Let me enlighten you:

S Korea has US$ 270 Billion, which is around 12,5% of China's and

Australia, far behind many more countries, has a "mere" $ 46,5 Billion which is far behind Thailand in fact, with $ 135,6 Billion (Oct 2009)

Those are facts Samuibeachcomber, not rumors.

LaoPo

[Abrak]

China seems to have achieved this phenomenal growth of 10.7%, but could someone

with a greater insight than me into the Chinese economy explain how they did this ?

Well I wouldnt claim any insight into the Chinese economy but the key to their growth is a massive increase in lending.

Roughly speaking, last year, China increased its private sector borrowing by US$1.4trn - roughly the same amount as say the US increased its private borrowings (as a percentage of GDP) in the previous 4 years 'combined' prior to the financial crisis. Another way to look at it is to consider Thailand - if all the banks increased their loan portfolios by 50% (implying say 1000%+ loan growth over last year) in a single year, you would be a bit disappointed if they didnt generate any decent GDP growth. Or another way - imagine if everyone in China borrowed US$1300 each, in a single year, then GDP is likely to grow pretty well.

[Abrak]

Next to that China has the largest forex reserves in the world with US $ 2.4 TRILLION; and how much for Korea/Australia ?

I believe that Thailand which has US$160bn of forex reserves (including futures commitments) are higher as a percentage of GDP than China, Korea and Australia. (Edit your US$135bn figure is a little out of date and doesnt include forwards/futures.)

Presumably Saudi would be top of the list.

Thailand is also accumulating forex reserves at a much faster rate relative to its GDP (than China) due to its larger C/A surplus (relative to GDP) and pressure on its currency.

(Edit. The problem with China is not tied to its lending to private sector corporations which tend to be pretty efficient - their ROE is both high and even higher than Thailand's. The problem is that the lending goes to quazi private enterprises (or Government controlled entities) who dont even try to make a profit.)

Edited January 21, 2010 by Abrak

[LaoPo]

Next to that China has the largest forex reserves in the world with US $ 2.4 TRILLION; and how much for Korea/Australia ?

I believe that Thailand which has US$160bn of forex reserves (including futures commitments) are higher as a percentage of GDP than China, Korea and Australia.

Presumably Saudi would be top of the list.

Thailand is also accumulating forex reserves at a much faster rate relative to its GDP due to its larger C/A surplus (relative to GDP) and pressure on its currency.

Thailand has, as of October 2009, US$ 139 billion in factual forex reserves and I'm not talking future commitments because NOBODY can guarantee anything for the future.

Saudi tops on the list ? Which list are you referring to?

If you have facts or links please share them because I can't really make any bread from your remarks.

* http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_count...#External_links

* http://www.swfinstitute.org/research/fxr.php

* I have no idea why Saudi Arabia isn't on every list (they're not reporting their forex reserves) since it must have substantial forex reserves -but almost exclusively from oil exports-; Probably between US$ 400-500 Billion if not more.

LaoPo

[flying]

From the Founder CEO of Trim Tabs Investment Research.....

[Naam]

maybe because they are awash with money and have been lending domestically to manufactures who have produced their goods only to have the chinese authorities store all these unsold goods for them aand so therefore fudge the GDP figures.As sure as night follows day the chinese are in for some crazy times,and i bet you the americans are watching carefully.Right now america and europe are technically bankrupt,except for the printing of money,all these economies would be in reverse gear going over a cliff.The japanese cupboard is bare too.THt leaves australia and korea with some cash,so not alot of people to buy all these chinese goods wasting away in warehouse.Its time for the world to wake up and realise that increased GDP is a furphy,it does nothing to enhance a persons living standards,you cant keep miking the cow when there's nothing left to milk.

You have quite an imagination. Have you ever been in Chinese factories ? I don't think so and there's no way a Chinese factory owner can load up his truck and drive to some store house to unload his unsold stock and ask for money from the Chinese government.

LaoPo

why do you spoil an interesting and amusing theory with boring facts LaoPo?

[Abrak]

Next to that China has the largest forex reserves in the world with US $ 2.4 TRILLION; and how much for Korea/Australia ?

I believe that Thailand which has US$160bn of forex reserves (including futures commitments) are higher as a percentage of GDP than China, Korea and Australia.

Presumably Saudi would be top of the list.

Thailand is also accumulating forex reserves at a much faster rate relative to its GDP due to its larger C/A surplus (relative to GDP) and pressure on its currency.

Thailand has, as of October 2009, US$ 139 billion in factual forex reserves and I'm not talking future commitments because NOBODY can guarantee anything for the future.

Saudi tops on the list ? Which list are you referring to?

If you have facts or links please share them because I can't really make any bread from your remarks.

* http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_count...#External_links

* http://www.swfinstitute.org/research/fxr.php

* I have no idea why Saudi Arabia isn't on every list (they're not reporting their forex reserves) since it must have substantial forex reserves -but almost exclusively from oil exports-; Probably between US$ 400-500 Billion if not more.

LaoPo

Sorry...

I tend to use the Bank of Thailand when looking at Thailand's forex reserves - Wiki is a little out of date. The BoT publishes the data on a weekly basis.

http://www.bot.or.th/English/EconomicCondi...ess_weekly.aspx

(If you only look at actual forex reserves rather than future commitments, you would have found that say the BoT had over US$30bn of forex reserves when it devalued its currency in 1997 while it had actually spent the entire country's forex reserves in the futures market.)

Dont know the actual number for Saudi but I suspect it is quite big and probably 'tops the list' of forex reserves relative to GDP.

[midas]

maybe because they are awash with money and have been lending domestically to manufactures who have produced their goods only to have the chinese authorities store all these unsold goods for them aand so therefore fudge the GDP figures. As sure as night follows day the chinese are in for some crazy times,and i bet you the americans are watching carefully.Right now america and europe are technically bankrupt,except for the printing of money,all these economies would be in reverse gear going over a cliff.The japanese cupboard is bare too.THt leaves australia and korea with some cash,so not alot of people to buy all these chinese goods wasting away in warehouse.Its time for the world to wake up and realise that increased GDP is a furphy,it does nothing to enhance a persons living standards,you cant keep miking the cow when there's nothing left to milk.

You have quite an imagination. Have you ever been in Chinese factories ?

And if you think the Chinese bank authorities are stupid people, lending to even more stupid factory owners...forget it. They are probably better bookkeepers than most western bankers and rather let a weak factory owner go bankrupt than give him (any more) money.

Next to that China has the largest forex reserves in the world with US $ 2.4 TRILLION; and how much for Korea/Australia ?

Those are facts Samuibeachcomber, not rumors.

LaoPo

Thank you LaoPo.

You do seem to write authoritatively about this subject. I am just curious, are you located in China ?

I have read some of your posts before and you seem to be open minded.

And as we are all simply trying to get an understanding about what is really happening out there,

to do that I believe we should at least be prepared to consider the views and information from all

suitably qualified commentators.

Gordon Chang I think is in this category being counsel to an American law firm in

Shanghai as well as a freelance journalist with the New York Times and the Asian Wall Street Journal .

He does give cause to be somewhat skeptical ?

Even though you seem to hold a strong belief in the authenticity of China’s growth figures,

I still don’t believe you could entirely dismiss Gordon Chang’s claims in his book which seems to be very well researched ?

Please at take a quick look at the contents of the book at the Amazon link….

http://www.amazon.com/Coming-Collapse-Chin...g/dp/037550477X

Chang says

"Peer beneath the surface, and there is a weak China, one that is in long-term decline and even on the verge of collapse.

The symptoms of decay are to be seen everywhere."

Edited January 22, 2010 by midas

[siamamerican]

China seems to have achieved this phenomenal growth of 10.7%, but could someone

with a greater insight than me into the Chinese economy explain how they did this ?

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2010/01/20/...Homepagetopnews

I understood China had reached peak performance in the past mainly acting as the industrial

producer for US consumers, but we all know how muted that is at the moment.

I find it hard to believe that this level of economic activity could be

achieved internally when only 9 months ago there were documentaries showing vast areas of

empty factories and Chinese workers desperately looking for work ?.

It's not black and white if you take exports to the US as a main factor into consideration, discussing China's growth .

China exports in 2009 were down 16 percent from 2008, and imports reached 1.01 trillion U.S. dollars, down 11.2 percent from a year earlier. But that's just one side of the coin since China's GDP rose 8.7 percent in 2009.

Many people forget how huge the local economy is if comparing to other western countries. Many think that China is floating on exports alone.

Of course exports are of enormous importance but not exclusively.

Yes, dozens of millions of workers were laid off and that was big news, worldwide. The point is that a gradually growing local economy also hired many millions of workers, again, but nobody reports about that.

A (minor and small) indicator last year was the sight in the streets and highways of southern Guangdong province (100 million people!); the gigantic stream of trucks with 40' containers diminished to a much smaller stream of trucks but now with just 20' containers.

That has changed to trucks with 40' footers again, meaning that exports are picking up and buyers are buying larger quantities also -again-.

In the same period, China installed enormous stimulus programs to urge the local population to start spending their large savings accounts, instead of sitting on it.

Chinese are no credit card spenders like many countries in the west. They use their money they have in the bank although their income is still far behind their western counterparts. But they still saved many many years and decades of the small incomes they made. 30% of income is the norm for family savings.

The government HAD to do something to make up for decreased exports but maybe the stimulus programs worked too well, resulting in a real estate bubble now since too many people were/are buying real estate, read: new larger houses.

In China there are still dozens of millions of houses (read: apartment buildings) which are over 30 to 40 years old without any owner's home associations; result: bad living conditions, neglected maintenance...I could go on. There are even still many buildings with up to 10 (!) floors WITHOUT elevators; can you imagine in the heat?

All these people see the newly built beautiful apartment buildings and since they had savings enough for a down payment (up to 20-25% in many cases), they want to move and applied for mortgages.

The stimulus plans of the government were too successful and the dragon of inflation showed it's face which could turn out in a nasty monster in this hige country.

To end, answering your question: YES, it was indeed local and internal consumption that made up for lost exports and in fact even more than that since national GDP grew with 8.7% in 2009.

LaoPo

Also a prediction Marc Faber got dead wrong. He predicted a terrible recession in China and advised investors to get out of Chinese stocks at the beginning of 2009. With that said, he sure nailed some other predictions. Love the doom and gloom stuff. Easy to make high yields for a sane investor. Just increased my Chinese position to 30% of my portfolio because of all the the doom and gloom the last few days. Might lose money the next 30-90 days but I bet at year end I clear 25% on my Chinese investments.

[flying]

Unemployment rose in 43 states last month

Unemployment rises in 43 states as economy fails to generate consistent job growth

[siamamerican]

Unemployment rose in 43 states last month

Unemployment rises in 43 states as economy fails to generate consistent job growth

Not unexpected really. 6 months ago most economists, media...( experts??? - don't think so), thought we would be losing jobs well into 2010. America's loose money policies under Bush created a monster that is now being fed by Obama. Personally I wish Obama would tighten the money supply but aint going to happen anytime soon. What lesson have we learned? Take huge risks and live beyond our means because when things go south, you can pass the responsibility to another party.

This financial crisis will end just as all the prior ones did and the world will keep getting wealthier. Until we choke on that wealth, investors that can see the opportunities through all the doom and gloom are going to make lots of money.

[flying]

Unemployment rose in 43 states last month

Unemployment rises in 43 states as economy fails to generate consistent job growth

Not unexpected really. 6 months ago most economists, media...( experts??? - don't think so), thought we would be losing jobs well into 2010. America's loose money policies under Bush created a monster that is now being fed by Obama. Personally I wish Obama would tighten the money supply but aint going to happen anytime soon. What lesson have we learned? Take huge risks and live beyond our means because when things go south, you can pass the responsibility to another party.

This financial crisis will end just as all the prior ones did and the world will keep getting wealthier. Until we choke on that wealth, investors that can see the opportunities through all the doom and gloom are going to make lots of money.

Agreed ...not unexpected even though they tried to twist the story a bit a month or two ago.

But as to this crisis will end & the world will keep getting wealthier....I'm not sure of the outcome.

Of course though as you said many see opportunities & do well in such times.

[midas]

where is 12 D ?

Dont you think this guy from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) speaks just the same

as Alistair Darling ? Maybe they went to the same school ...

This is the best line ....

"Although the figures are still consistent with a return to positive economic growth, it is clear that any recovery remains fragile and patchy.

Retail undermined by shock Christmas data

Disappointing ONS growth figures spark row with BRC about accuracy of data

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business...ta-1876609.html

[flying]

If even 5 other congressmen/women were as bright as RP Americans would need to wear sunglasses

Ron Paul State of the Republic Address

PS: 9 more banks already this year gone

Edited January 23, 2010 by flying

[12DrinkMore]

Another five US banks hit the wall this week, keeping the average, well, at the average.

http://www.fdic.gov/news/news/press/2010/index.html

There have been two Obamah policies, one is the global war on drugs, kicked off by that actor Reagan, is to be curtailed. And about time to, it has been a huge waste of tax payers' money with no results, except to make the drug barons richer.

And then the little bomb he dropped on the banks this week, finally making a move towards a reincarnation of the Glass-Steagal act. I wonder whether he will be able to get this one through.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbys...0bn-speech.html

The battle is on

Last night, David Viniar, Goldman's chief financial officer, showed the first sign that President Obama faces a fight. "To put rules in place that roll back the financial system by 10 years is going to be a very, very hard thing to do," he said.

I hope that it is not going to be that hard. On the other side of the pond I did not notice Brown making any statement, but the Tories are supporting the move, another reason to vote for them , even if only to get that nutter Brown out.

So it is not yet a done deal with Bernanke's reappointment.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business...ed-1876612.html

Bernanke the Hero emerged as the banking crisis moved into territory familiar from his academic work, namely the ways a financial collapse can lead to devastation in the real economy. As President Obama said in August: "As an expert on the causes of the Great Depression, I'm sure Ben never imagined that he would be part of a team responsible for preventing another. But because of his background, his temperament, his courage, and his creativity, that's exactly what he has helped to achieve." True, but not reason enough to reappoint him.

I am still deeply suspicious that Bernanke (together with that elderly master of the abstruse statement) engineered the mess so he could try out his theories and "unconventional tools".

Years of further pain for the Brits says Merv,

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbys...-says-Bank.html

I am surprised that it has taken so long, but the inflation due to the devaluation of the GBP, which has caused imports to rise in price by some 20% now looks like it is hitting the streets.

Inflation is now rising almost twice as quickly as average earnings

With a huge number of unemployables living off the tax payer, I can't see that there will be any pressure on companies to raise salaries. But, of course, the huge bloated civil service, now an incredible 25% of the "workforce", will continue to increase the burden on the few productive workers left.

A Treasury spokesman insisted that families would soon see an improvement in take-home pay, crediting continued government spending

This spokesman is obviously thinking about his own civil service pay packet, paid out of tax payers taxes.

I cannot see any "V"s or "U"s coming up; it's a ski-jump....

Edited January 23, 2010 by 12DrinkMore

[flying]

Another five US banks hit the wall this week, keeping the average, well, at the average.

There have been two Obamah policies, one is the global war on drugs, kicked off by that actor Reagan, is to be curtailed. And about time to, it has been a huge waste of tax payers' money with no results, except to make the drug barons richer.

So it is not yet a done deal with Bernanke's reappointment.

Yeah how about it 12D...9 banks already for 2010.....Hope the FDIC recharged their batteries.

Yeah the war on drugs waves the white flag......Didn't have much choice eh with all the pictures coming into the US. The ones of the troops walking through all the opium fields in Afghanistan.....

Bernanke? Yeah I just said the same over here

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Stock-Market...59#entry3288059

He looks like a definite maybe now eh? Watch as Timmy Geithner gets the boot or quits soon too.