Financial Crisis

[flying]

Well way back at the start of the crisis the US bank stress test was said to be the same as sending a couple of gerbils across a bridge & then pronouncing it safe

In the aftermath & looking at the FDIC failed bank list we see they were right about the gerbils

[Abrak]

Well way back at the start of the crisis the US bank stress test was said to be the same as sending a couple of gerbils across a bridge & then pronouncing it safe

In the aftermath & looking at the FDIC failed bank list we see they were right about the gerbils

Actually I believe the US stress tests were very productive in terms of getting share prices up which is why the Euro countries are doing them. In the US you can make various assumptions that at least make sense. Personally I do not even understand the logic of making an assumption that you should write down Spanish Sovereign debt by 3%. It would be more logical to actually write up Spanish debt on the basis that higher interest rates from Spanish Sovereign debt result in say good returns for German banks.But that would not really be stress.

[midas]

Well way back at the start of the crisis the US bank stress test was said to be the same as sending a couple of gerbils across a bridge & then pronouncing it safe

In the aftermath & looking at the FDIC failed bank list we see they were right about the gerbils

Hey flying.....roll up roll up and get your free land

" Around the nation, cities and towns facing grim budget circumstances are grasping at unlikely — some would say desperate — means to bolster their shrunken tax bases. Like Beatrice, places like Dayton, Ohio, and Grafton, Ill., are giving away land for nominal fees or for nothing in the hope that it will boost the tax rolls and cut the lawn-mowing bills."

but this is also a classic and maybe the IRS will resort to sending letters

to nonprofit groups asking " whether they would consider paying something " ?

FULL ARTICLE HERE http://www.businessinsider.com/desperate-cities-begin-giving-away-land-taxing-non-profits-2010-7#ixzz0umqkaRHL

[Bizz]

OK, you can ignore the video except for the first ten seconds. Can anyone give me a name for theis Bloomberg babe?

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/61551604/

watch Betty every day.

[ronz28]

Americans are broke and depressed—and also swilling $3 lattes and waiting in line for iPhones. Welcome to the schizophrenic economy

Of course the wealthy taxpayers and those holding the bag high yield bondholders will pay for the excess...right?

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_32/b4190050473272.htm

[jcon]

The hottest CNBC reader is the Aussie stand-in bird they have in Europe, cant recall her name. Im sure Patricia Szarvas would be good fun after a stein or two of ale.

Amanda Drury? I think she was ok, but didn't she skank-out and go to the USA?

Liz Cho used to read in Chicago some 10 years ago - she was hotter then, but still hot:

Sorry I have nothing to add re: the ''financial crisis'' aspect of this thread. But after 200+ pages I suppose the thread could use some women.....

[ronz28]

Betty Liu is in Thailand

http://www.facebook.com/BettyInTheLoop

[12DrinkMore]

Wanna buy a nice house with no neigbours?

The Irish are on the move.

With no jobs around and forecasts of a jobless recovery in Ireland, 70,000 have already left those shores for pastures greener, and another 50,000 forecast to leave in the next few months.

http://irishexaminer.com/ireland/irish-least-likely-to-emigrate-eu-report-finds-125079.html

[flying]

"monkeynomics"

Saw this & thought it was pretty cool

Laurie Santos looks for the roots of human irrationality by watching the way our primate relatives make decisions. A clever series of experiments in "monkeynomics" shows that some of the silly choices we make, monkeys make too.

About Laurie Santos

Laurie Santos studies primate psychology and monkeynomics -- testing problems in human psychology on primates, who (not so surprisingly) have many of the same predictable irrationalities we do.

[BlackJack]

Wanna buy a nice house with no neigbours?

The Irish are on the move.

With no jobs around and forecasts of a jobless recovery in Ireland, 70,000 have already left those shores for pastures greener, and another 50,000 forecast to leave in the next few months.

http://irishexaminer.com/ireland/irish-least-likely-to-emigrate-eu-report-finds-125079.html

plenty of jobs at FOX news - ie O'Reilly, Hannity etc

[AlexLah]

Didn't know before that 12 has a channel on YT, here ya go.

[12DrinkMore]

Didn't know before that 12 has a channel on YT, here ya go.

Oh, found me out, eh?

Apart from the overuse of the "F", he does have a few points. Maybe once the US gov has managed to silence Wikileaks they will start out on a mission to delete YouTube bursts of outrage.

Greeks are on the warpath. Austerity is not going down the Greek throat too well.

http://www.guardian....naries-tourists

"Greece has entered a new phase of political violence by anarchist-oriented organisations that are more murderous, dangerous, capable and nihilistic than ever before," said Athanasios Drougos, a defence and counter-terrorism analyst in Athens.

Although Drougos, as indeed many others like the CIA, MI5, MI6 etc etc have a very big vested interest in keeping various pots simmering gently. Nothing like a bit of "imminent breach of national security" or "potential threat" to loosen up a few budgets.

The threats came from a guerrilla group called the Sect of Revolutionaries, as it claimed credit for the murder of Sokratis Giolas, an investigative journalist. Giolas was shot dead outside his Athenian home on 19 July, in front of his pregant wife.The gang promised to step up attacks on police, businessmen, prison guards and "corrupt" media – and, for the first time, threatened holidaymakers.

"Tourists should learn that Greece is no longer a safe haven of capitalism," its declaration said.

"We intend to turn it into a war zone of revolutionary activity with arson, sabotage, violent demonstrations, bombings and assassinations, and not a country that is a destination for holidays and pleasure."

In an accompanying picture, the group displayed an arsenal that included AK 47 assault rifles, semi-automatic pistols and brass knuckledusters.

[cloudhopper]

Interesting graphic showing that the underground economy exceeds 50% (edit-of official GDP) here in LOS. This does not include illegal or criminal activity, merely transactions that are "off the books".

http://2.bp.blogspot...l+economies.png

[12DrinkMore]

I wonder where this might lead to?

It's a short documentary about Indonesia at the people's level returning to the gold and silver standard. But the figure of 50,000 coins issued seems very small compared to the population. However, large oaks grow from small acorns.

[jcon]

Didn't know before that 12 has a channel on YT, here ya go.

Maybe if that guy would wear a proper shirt somebody would listen....

Actually, I'd hire him as an actor - if he didn't have that annoying lisp.

Funny find Plarex

[ronz28]

Deirdre interviews Marc Faber on his prediction of a China slowdown that is now being confirmed by China.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/08/marc-faber-chinese-economy-stock-market/

Real estate crash needs to happen there to stop the empty cities from being built...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-Ef79KcH0Y&feature=related

[Abrak]

http://www.boeckhinvestmentletter.com/newsletters/Volume%202.9%20Demographics%20Destiny%20and%20Asset%20Markets%20%20July%2013%202010.pdf

Here is a long and rather boring report on the effects of demographics on economies. Where I think demographics is interesting though is that it actually hits where you might least expect it - namely China and South Korea.

[12DrinkMore]

Here is a long and rather boring report on the effects of demographics on economies. Where I think demographics is interesting though is that it actually hits where you might least expect it - namely China and South Korea.

I didn't find it long nor boring.

It addressed the problem of the aging population and how the pensions will be funded.

I have a very simplistic view of pension funding.

Start work at 20 and carry on to 65. That totals 45 years of holding your nose to the grind wheel.

Expect another 20 years of existence after retirement.

Now, IMO, there are very few investments that, over the very long term, have held level with the insidious inflation that the central bankers impose on us. And certainly the vast majority of the UK "pension schemes" have been run to provide maximum benefit for the managers and minimum benefit for the savers, resulting in returns under the rate of inflation.

This leads to the observation that, if you want to continue in the same lifestyle that you are used to, then you need to save, in whatever form, around 25-35% of your annual salary each year.

There are not many people doing that.

Had a small argument with an early retired public servant a year or so ago. He claimed that he had contributed to his pension scheme and was fully entitled to his pension. I pointed out that his contributions of some 3% had already been returned to him in the first two years of his retirement, and now the UK tax payer was coughing up the money. Entitled he may be, but certainly his contributions in no way have paid for the benefits he has already received and will continue to receive for another two decades.

[12DrinkMore]

Modern Monetary Theory, or MMT.

This is a topic that hasn't been touched on here.

http://pragcap.com/the-concept-of-vertical-and-horizontal-money-creation

Is one place to start. And you have to read through all the blog as well as the original stuff.

It has taken a while, but I think I am finally getting my head around the concepts, and am beginning to agree with the mechanics of it. Unfortunately the solutions it provides require that Our Leaderz have a modicum of intelligence in efficiently spending the essentially limitless supply of money available to a fiat based economy so that the "real" productive sector can be kick-started into operation.

Other problems are

- the banks will not appreciate the issuance of debt free money by governments

- the markets (presumably the "too big to fail" bankers) will not understand or maybe will and still punish the government for its profligacy

- the concept of government deficit spending being constraint by tax revenue and borrowing is deeply ingrained

But is it a solution to the problems the western economies are facing? Maybe the public debt mountains could be addressed, but the massive private debt mountains would remain and the manufacturing competition in the "global world" remains as before.

[ronz28]

Deirdre interviews Marc Faber on his prediction of a China slowdown that is now being confirmed by China.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/08/marc-faber-chinese-economy-stock-market/

Real estate crash needs to happen there to stop the empty cities from being built...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-Ef79KcH0Y&feature=related

60% property price drop possible in China...how about the rest of Asia?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-04/chinese-regulator-said-to-tell-banks-to-test-for-60-drop-in-home-prices.html

[AnnyLing]

ronz <deleted>: 60% property price drop possible in China...

bloomberg fact: China’s banking regulator told lenders last month to conduct a new round of stress tests to gauge the impact of residential property prices falling as much as 60 percent

[ronz28]

ronz <deleted>: 60% property price drop possible in China...

bloomberg fact: China’s banking regulator told lenders last month to conduct a new round of stress tests to gauge the impact of residential property prices falling as much as 60 percent

Ghost towns and malls in China, Ireland and elsewhere constructed to make developers rich without regard to the economics of the development will have to be cut in price by 50% or more to sell them or they can just bulldoze the new homes like they have done in the U.S. Lots of videos on the Ghost towns, neighborhoods and malls in the China, Ireland, etc. on Youtube. Any ling can see that. :jap:

[AnnyLing]

Lots of <deleted> on youtube (in Ireland and elsewhere) do not justify <deleted> assumptions and surely not misquoting and falsifying facts.

[badge]

david rosenbear via zerowimp.com

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ever-wondered-how-you-know-you-are-depression-david-rosenberg-explains

[midas]

In the UK last year it was all about the politicians helping themselves to

other peoples money unjustifiably and now its the city bankers and fund managers

Its also interesting to see the readers comments below the article.

£7billion a year skimmed off our savings

" More than £7.3billion a year is being “skimmed off” the value of Britons’ savings by City bankers and fund managers, an investigation by The Daily Telegraph has found

A range of questionable hidden fees and levies are being deducted from investments, making it difficult for a typical saver to make money from the stock market. Britain’s eight million investors are losing an average of £800 a year each to the hidden levies.

An investor putting £50,000 into a fund providing typical returns over 25 years would lose out on £108,000 because of unnecessary charges, said David Norman, a former chief executive of Credit Suisse Asset Management."

full article here :- http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/savings/7919778/7billion-a-year-skimmed-off-our-savings.html

[Abrak]

Here is a long and rather boring report on the effects of demographics on economies. Where I think demographics is interesting though is that it actually hits where you might least expect it - namely China and South Korea.

I didn't find it long nor boring.

It addressed the problem of the aging population and how the pensions will be funded.

I have a very simplistic view of pension funding.

Start work at 20 and carry on to 65. That totals 45 years of holding your nose to the grind wheel.

Expect another 20 years of existence after retirement.

Now, IMO, there are very few investments that, over the very long term, have held level with the insidious inflation that the central bankers impose on us. And certainly the vast majority of the UK "pension schemes" have been run to provide maximum benefit for the managers and minimum benefit for the savers, resulting in returns under the rate of inflation.

This leads to the observation that, if you want to continue in the same lifestyle that you are used to, then you need to save, in whatever form, around 25-35% of your annual salary each year.

There are not many people doing that.

Had a small argument with an early retired public servant a year or so ago. He claimed that he had contributed to his pension scheme and was fully entitled to his pension. I pointed out that his contributions of some 3% had already been returned to him in the first two years of his retirement, and now the UK tax payer was coughing up the money. Entitled he may be, but certainly his contributions in no way have paid for the benefits he has already received and will continue to receive for another two decades.

In some ways I agree with you in others I dont.

To be honest, I think people should effectively write off any state pension they expect and accept that any you receive is a sort of bonus. And 12D I suspect that is exactly what you are effectively doing.

Personally I think medicare is a much bigger issue. I find it difficult to reconcile how much it would cost to keep me alive at 85 with how much I might be worth at 85. Somehow you bump into infinite resources needed to match my finite worth. And I am pretty realistic who wins out on that equation.

I think it is fair to say that it is dubious whether countries can meet their existing liabilities especially at current rates of increasing them. The whole concept of them paying contingent liabilities just seems to me remarkably optimistic. Given that I am at least 30 years away from actually receiving anything, any assumption I make about anything simply seems too heroic to be true.

[12DrinkMore]

In the UK last year it was all about the politicians helping themselves to

other peoples money unjustifiably and now its the city bankers and fund managers

Its also interesting to see the readers comments below the article.

£7billion a year skimmed off our savings

Over the years I have seen how the members of that self-proclaimed "World Centre of Finance", the UK, have consistently screwed the UK customer with charges, bad exchange rates and generally bad service. Now, with the interest rates at well under the inflation rate, it is difficult to justify keeping any cash with this bunch of thieves.

Time to move away to somewhere where we are treated like customers and not some inconvenient nuisance to be taken for a ride.

[ronz28]

Sorry any ling did not read/comprehend the Bloomberg article I linked to indicating a 60% price drop in China properties is possible.

Further information on this condition are included in Tyler Durden's article and responding comments are found here

http://tinyurl.com/3246z63

Any ling, I am only sharing information here so if it doesn't suit you then you may provide your own information to further the discussion. However, read my information provided carefully including the linked article to gain a better understanding of the message before jumping off the deep end. I generally do not repeat lengthy linked articles within a message.

[AnnyLing]

Some people accept when they have lost a case and some are bad losers.

[midas]

Some people accept when they have lost a case and some are bad losers.

AnnyLing if you are referring to ronz28, in what way do you think he has he " lost a case " ?

Like many others on this thread he simply posted information from another source

for readers to consider ?

As to whether some Chinese real estate is 150% over valued or not I dont think you or anyone

else can say with certainty that this would be impossibile and it certainly isn't

" <deleted> " ? just as there are overvalued properties in USA, Canada, Spain, Australia etc etc.