Financial Crisis

[Abrak]

The Trade and Tax Doomsday Clocks

Come on - you are smarter than this!!! If the market repeated 1929's performance after hitting its bottom, I will have much more money than I do today.

Anyway you have got to admit it did fool you.

The entire fit has been achieved by manipulating the modern day time line. Compressing the data to fit if need be and stretching it at other points and not even matching it at others.

[flying]

Anyway you have got to admit it did fool you.

The entire fit has been achieved by manipulating the modern day time line. Compressing the data to fit if need be and stretching it at other points and not even matching it at others.

Actually I never paid it that much mind. I saw it as a link & thought it interesting along the lines of the old 4 bears chart.

http://dshort.com/charts/bear-markets.html?four-bears

But I admit I do not see all the manipulation you claim above. Dont both graphs show roughly 15 months time span?

( in comparison section)

Do you have another graph that you could overlay to show this manipulation? Just curious as always & as i said just something I thought was interesting.

Edited October 11, 2010 by flying

[Abrak]

what this forum needs is for the USA to start QE11

as its running out of steam and its degenerated into slagging each other off

Bring on QE11

Dont worry there is plenty of excitement.

I believe the UK's big austerity experiment gets under way on October 20th whereby the Government is going to announce spending cuts equivalent to nearly 10% of GDP over the next 5 years.

Of course it wont quite seem as high as that because they will also predict the UK economy will buck this trend by growing at 2% real, implying a supercharged underlying growth rate.

The other word that is going to be stretched to its maximum is the word 'fair'. The 'Tories' are spinning the 'harsh but fair' line and the Liberal Democrats are going to 'ensure that the cuts are fair'. But we all know that when you cut virtually 30% off your Government spending it is going to hit the poor, old, underprivileged and disabled rather than the rich and privileged. (They can spin a bit of fairness out of spinning growth - you know, as unemployment falls so does unemployment benefit - etc..)

However good luck explaining the plans to disability allowances. However, 'the work and pensions secretary is expected to save at least GBP2bn after new medical tests which will assess whether people on IB are fit enough to work.' Ok so far so good - I have seen people in wheelchairs just to get to the front row of a football match. But then it goes on. 'Those who pass' (pass being a rather odd choice of word) 'will either move directly into jobs' (those magical jobs) or be put on a jobseekers allowance (jobseeker sounds like a funny spin word too...it is possibly someone who has a job looking for a job as opposed to actually being unemployed). Anyway moving on 'which will result in them losing a third of their payments - or about GBP1,500 a year.'

In short they are going to save GBP2bn a year by declaring people receiving disability allowance as 'fit to work' and 'jobseekers' which will save GBP1,500 a year per person. So they are going to find 1.3m people and reclassify them as unemployed. There are 2.5m unemployed in the UK at the moment.

But it goes on.... 'claimants judged too sick or disabled to work could have their benefits time limited to six months or a year, saving a further GBP2bn.' (Now I assume the UK is not planning to Gas these people after their time limit is up - it has been tried before but it doesnt work out well long term - there are though fantastic additional cost savings such as the lack of need for wheelchair ramps.)

My point is that this is how they are looking to save just GBP4bn of GBP100bn of cuts....And if you think I am taking the piss just wait until 'The Sun' gets into it.

[flying]

Have you read this then ?

Its not a good sign when " salt of the earth " people who used

to do eveything by the book are also saying now " <removed> it " - and joing the ranks of Paulson et al.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gonzalo-lira-coming-middle-class-anarchy

No I had not seen that one.

But I do know a couple just like them.

Exactly the same situation where the husband is insisting they hang in & pay.

Yet he lost his job over a year ago & his unemployment is running out now.

The lady on the other hand has had enough as she is the one who did all the paper work including the hardship letter that needs to be submitted to qualify. She had been run round & round by them in much the same way. In the end they thought ok well we will now get some relief......DENIED

If anyone should qualify these folks should because like the article they are the backbone & not trying to escape even though they realize they are under water & could buy the same house up the street for half what they owe. They are trying to do the right thing with the supposed programs B.O. claims is there to help homeowners like them.

When you look at these cases logically it really makes no sense at all. The banks have them on the hook for more than appraised value yet will not budge to help them.

So if the home owners lose the house the bank will short sell it for what? Half the amount the booted folks would have paid?

Something smells here. Seems like the bank does better or else why would they go this route?

Perhaps they get to claim a loss & also a new sale with all its costs not to mention all the interest they have already collected.

Anyone who looks at a 30 year mortgage knows what is paid in the first few years alone. Also many of these are ARM's that are being reset at higher rates to boot.

Edited October 11, 2010 by flying

[midas]

Have you read this then ?

Its not a good sign when " salt of the earth " people who used

to do eveything by the book are also saying now " <removed> it " - and joing the ranks of Paulson et al.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gonzalo-lira-coming-middle-class-anarchy

No I had not seen that one.

But I do know a couple just like them.

Exactly the same situation where the husband is insisting they hang in & pay.

Yet he lost his job over a year ago & his unemployment is running out now.

The lady on the other hand has had enough as she is the one who did all the paper work including the hardship letter that needs to be submitted to qualify. She had been run round & round by them in much the same way. In the end they thought ok well we will now get some relief......DENIED

If anyone should qualify these folks should because like the article they are the backbone & not trying to escape even though they realize they are under water & could buy the same house up the street for half what they owe. They are trying to do the right thing with the supposed programs B.O. claims is there to help homeowners like them.

When you look at these cases logically it really makes no sense at all. The banks have them on the hook for more than appraised value yet will not budge to help them.

So if the home owners lose the house the bank will short sell it for what? Half the amount the booted folks would have paid?

Something smells here. Seems like the bank does better or else why would they go this route?

Perhaps they get to claim a loss & also a new sale with all its costs not to mention all the interest they have already collected.

Anyone who looks at a 30 year mortgage knows what is paid in the first few years alone. Also many of these are ARM's that are being reset at higher rates to boot.

so i am wondering if this kind of attitude could spread to

money owed to the IRS e.g after the big tax hikes coming in January 2011 ?

That would be fun and games

[Abrak]

what this forum needs is for the USA to start QE11

as its running out of steam and its degenerated into slaggin each other off

Bring on QE11

And on another note about how QE11 (actually I believe it should be QE2, so that people remember to confuse it with a useless ship.)

To step back to QE1, people will remember that there used to be a brilliant and fairly famous economist (now working for a bank) who believed in this idea of QE which essentially was an advanced and experimental monetary experiment about how to avoid deflation (a problem known as the 'liquidity trap' by Keynesians who used to meditate under apple trees for years in the belief that an apple might hit their head and bounce back into a tree in order to solve this problem.)

In the modern era, well known economists have decided to give up on the whole thing and declare everything a disaster that they had predicted at some point over the last ten years and entitles them to large personal fortunes (although they dont think they are terribly good things, gorgious chicks (which we all agree are good things) and often beards (which most people agree are either a bad thing, a sign of an abused childhood, or laziness (I personally rule this last one out, as you can usually persuade the gorgious chick to shave you.))

Anyway, QE1 seemed to me to work incredibly well. It certainly sounded very whacky but it did ok. This man Bernanke was insistent that it could prevent deflation of prices, many doubted him, but prices didnt deflate. Now we come to QE2.

I actually read what this man - Bernanke - wrote (ok not a lot of it but I got the gist.) He never claimed it created growth but he claimed that price deflation could be avoided (maybe at the cost of high inflation.) Now I am not sure if it is the same guy (beard) but now people are saying that if you print money you will create economic growth, jobs, etc.. Now I am not totally convinced there is such a thing as good economics (glad Sokal has disappeared) but there is certainly bad economics.

To some extent, the US$ as a central reserve currency acts like a single currency in Europe. Fundamentals 'need' to converge or else you get instability. (Take China for instance that has undervalued its currency through capital controls, it has resulted in inflation.) Now when the central reserve economy continues on a course of fiscal irresponsibility against currencies reversing theirs, then you are essentially bound to have a monetary tightening which will strengthen those currencies in general (despite the loss of growth). So the responsible will simply be deflated (the Greeks sort of get this concept - in that they are devaluing their local currency which was over valued by deflating.) The UK can 'make' their currency over valued by deflating. (Which would, lead to various very cool and innovative consequences - like food stamps.)

QE2 then becomes the Titanic - monetary irresponsibility against fiscal irresponsibility of the US. I will admit that economists are fairly useless, but if you asked them how to set up a position of hyperinflation, namely no growth and high inflation, they would say they are already doing it. In a world where countries actually pursue fiscal responsibility they almost have a moral responsibility to be monetary irresponsible.

[sarahsbloke]

I took all my money out, and have it in a suitcase under the bed.

After all, the interest rates are so low, not worth bothering with them.

Putting it in other bank accounts is for wimps.

... They almost got me, when they changed the notes!

Edited October 11, 2010 by sarahsbloke

[Naam]

so i am wondering if this kind of attitude could spread to money owed to the IRS e.g after the big tax hikes coming in January 2011 ? That would be fun and games

there's a huge big difference between money owed to the IRS and money owed to a mortgage lender. to the best of my knowledge the Greatest Nation on Earth™ is the only jurisdiction where a mortgage debtor hands over the mortgaged property and walks away free and clear.

on the other hand the Greatest Nation on Earth™ is one of the few jurisdictions where the tax authority can freeze all bank accounts of a tax debtor in the blink of an eye without involving a judge or a court of law. therefore i wonder why to expect any "fun and games".

[Abrak]

so i am wondering if this kind of attitude could spread to

money owed to the IRS e.g after the big tax hikes coming in January 2011 ?

That would be fun and games

Actually Midas, the reason there will be no fun and games, is this.

If you look at the situation, you have a choice between the Government running things who are useless and inefficient (and often corrupt) or the bankers running things (who are inefficient, greedy, corrupt (and often useless)). Now that is the situation and, seriously, it hasnt changed and it will never change - we (meaning me) is not going to turn into a rice farmer in Isaan or collecting gold coins on the basis that one day I will be anointed the Emperor. If you need a business plan, look at Paris Hilton, and get yourself a fluffy dog (preferably one that can lick its own balls.)

[midas]

so i am wondering if this kind of attitude could spread to money owed to the IRS e.g after the big tax hikes coming in January 2011 ? That would be fun and games

there's a huge big difference between money owed to the IRS and money owed to a mortgage lender. to the best of my knowledge the Greatest Nation on Earth™ is the only jurisdiction where a mortgage debtor hands over the mortgaged property and walks away free and clear.

on the other hand the Greatest Nation on Earth™ is one of the few jurisdictions where the tax authority can freeze all bank accounts of a tax debtor in the blink of an eye without involving a judge or a court of law. therefore i wonder why to expect any "fun and games".

Of course I am talking about people who have already drained their bank accounts and have their money

in other " forms " . And if their homes are frozen in the foreclosure mess, how else can

the IRS get at them i mean the USA jails are already overflowing and the courts are full to the brim of " foreclosure " cases

Anyway it's pretty clear some people are thinking this way already..........:-

" Time for law abiding American citizens to stop paying taxes, start a new US government "By David DeGraw,

http://dailycensored.com/2010/06/14/time-for-law-abiding-american-citizens-to-stop-paying-taxes-start-a-new-us-government-13-of-13/

Edited October 11, 2010 by midas

[Naam]

Of course I am talking about people who have already drained their bank accounts and have their money in other " forms " .

in other words extremely poor people who can't take a flight or rent a car because the IRS took their car or spend a weekend in a better accomodation than a single star motel... just to name a few restrictions? besides, what bearing would that have on the "financial crisis" or the folks who sit in the White House, Senate, Congress and the Honourable Gentlemen in Goldilocks Sucks et al?

[Naam]

so i am wondering if this kind of attitude could spread to

money owed to the IRS e.g after the big tax hikes coming in January 2011 ?

That would be fun and games

Actually Midas, the reason there will be no fun and games, is this.

If you look at the situation, you have a choice between the Government running things who are useless and inefficient (and often corrupt) or the bankers running things (who are inefficient, greedy, corrupt (and often useless)). Now that is the situation and, seriously, it hasnt changed and it will never change - we (meaning me) is not going to turn into a rice farmer in Isaan or collecting gold coins on the basis that one day I will be anointed the Emperor. If you need a business plan, look at Paris Hilton, and get yourself a fluffy dog (preferably one that can lick its own balls.)

you seem to be a lazy person Abrak!

[Abrak]

" Time for law abiding American citizens to stop paying taxes, start a new US government "[/b][/size]By David DeGraw,

Oh come on Midas, I am not going to read the post that accompanied such sentiment. It is by definition TOTAL AND UTTER GARBAGE.

Law abiding citizens are going to stop paying for the debts they have accumulated (a bit like old Mr and Mrs USA Nowhere think that the bank should write off their loan to them because they paid to much for their house but they are good people.) And then you are going to elect a new Government that does exactly what? Live within it means? I guarantee you dont want that. At no point has the US even pretended to pay the interest on its debts over the past ten years with taxes - they dont EVER, EVER cover your current costs - your tax charges do not cover your interest payments - so do not pretend in a new America with a new Government. The US is effectively a parasite - admittedly a parasite with the support of the world - whereby the richest nation lives off the poorest at their expense.

Do not get confused. The US is like a King, that says you should give me money which through my own divine rights I will (or possibly will not) repay one day and in return I will wax lyrical about our brilliance and how we should improve the poverty in which we have enslaved you by our own borrowings. So if anybody should stop paying their taxes it is the Thais who spend 10% of their GDP every year loaning back money to the US so they can have a lecture about capitalism and its benefits.

[midas]

" Time for law abiding American citizens to stop paying taxes, start a new US government "[/b][/size]By David DeGraw,

Oh come on Midas, I am not going to read the post that accompanied such sentiment. It is by definition TOTAL AND UTTER GARBAGE.

Law abiding citizens are going to stop paying for the debts they have accumulated (a bit like old Mr and Mrs USA Nowhere think that the bank should write off their loan to them because they paid to much for their house but they are good people.) And then you are going to elect a new Government that does exactly what? Live within it means? I guarantee you dont want that. At no point has the US even pretended to pay the interest on its debts over the past ten years with taxes - they dont EVER, EVER cover your current costs - your tax charges do not cover your interest payments - so do not pretend in a new America with a new Government. The US is effectively a parasite - admittedly a parasite with the support of the world - whereby the richest nation lives off the poorest at their expense.

Do not get confused. The US is like a King, that says you should give me money which through my own divine rights I will (or possibly will not) repay one day and in return I will wax lyrical about our brilliance and how we should improve the poverty in which we have enslaved you by our own borrowings. So if anybody should stop paying their taxes it is the Thais who spend 10% of their GDP every year loaning back money to the US so they can have a lecture about capitalism and its benefits.

" Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me "

" Foreclosure - gate " and their attempt to pass HR3808 is twice.......i

think Homer Simpson just choked on his popcorn as he was watching American Idol

Edited October 11, 2010 by midas

[Abrak]

" Time for law abiding American citizens to stop paying taxes, start a new US government "[/b][/size]By David DeGraw,

Oh come on Midas, I am not going to read the post that accompanied such sentiment. It is by definition TOTAL AND UTTER GARBAGE.

Law abiding citizens are going to stop paying for the debts they have accumulated (a bit like old Mr and Mrs USA Nowhere think that the bank should write off their loan to them because they paid to much for their house but they are good people.) And then you are going to elect a new Government that does exactly what? Live within it means? I guarantee you dont want that. At no point has the US even pretended to pay the interest on its debts over the past ten years with taxes - they dont EVER, EVER cover your current costs - your tax charges do not cover your interest payments - so do not pretend in a new America with a new Government. The US is effectively a parasite - admittedly a parasite with the support of the world - whereby the richest nation lives off the poorest at their expense.

Do not get confused. The US is like a King, that says you should give me money which through my own divine rights I will (or possibly will not) repay one day and in return I will wax lyrical about our brilliance and how we should improve the poverty in which we have enslaved you by our own borrowings. So if anybody should stop paying their taxes it is the Thais who spend 10% of their GDP every year loaning back money to the US so they can have a lecture about capitalism and its benefits.

" Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me "

" Foreclosure - gate " and their attempt to pass HR3808 is twice.......i

think Homer Simpson just choked on his popcorn as he was watching American Idol

Look Midas dont try and confuse issues by quoting Homer Simpson. It just doesnt work like that. My inherent 'laziness' Naam would point out (although possibly not actually true) is based on my belief of the US's belief of everyone else's stupidity.

Homer Simpson CANNOT be used in a case in point because he exemplifies the underlying dichotomy.

Perhaps you should go back a little further and consider another great thinker (although not of the calibre of Homer Simpson), and consider Samuel Johnson '

"The commercial world is very frequently put into confusion by the bankruptcy of merchants, that assumed the splendour of wealth only to obtain the privilege of trading with the stock of other men, and of contracting debts which nothing but lucky casualties could enable them to pay; till after having supported their appearance a while by tumultuary magnificence of boundless traffic, they sink at once, and drag down into poverty those whom their equipages had induced to trust them."

January 7, 1752

[midas]

Homer Simpson CANNOT be used in a case in point because he exemplifies the underlying dichotomy.

The real dichotomy is whether Homer Simpson goes on tax strike now

or by sitting back he risks allowing this scenario to develop ....

And bear in mind several times Barrack Hussein Obama has said

he follows his fathers thinking 100% of the way ( read Dreams from My Father )

" The senior Obama proposed that the state confiscate private land and raise taxes with no upper limit. In fact, he insisted that "theoretically there is nothing that can stop the government from taxing 100% of income so long as the people get benefits from the government commensurate with their income which is taxed."

Benefits .........ha ha ha that is so funny - Obama has just announced they are cutting Social Security payments :cheesy:

[chiang mai]

Benefits .........ha ha ha that is so funny - Obama has just announced they are cutting Social Security payments :cheesy:

I for one missed that, can you privide a link or such?

[Abrak]

" The senior Obama proposed that the state confiscate private land and raise taxes with no upper limit. In fact, he insisted that "theoretically there is nothing that can stop the government from taxing 100% of income so long as the people get benefits from the government commensurate with their income which is taxed."

I am not sure what you are after Midas. If you believe that the Obama Government is essentially a 'communist' one by way they tax everyone 100% of income, then I can see your anger, confiscate private land would be an example. I am not American, so I see that tax or tax reliefs over and above say 50% for people earning over US$250,000 should be rescinded is rationale. I have seen no laws whereby private land should be nationalised or that people earning over US$5m will be taxed at over 70% leaving them US$1.5m minimum to live on. Of course I maybe under some misapprehension on the basis that all the people I know who earn that sort of money are certainly not going to put themselves in the position to be taxed so highly.

But I am still confused by what you actually want. The people to earn a US$1bn a year to keep a US$1bn. The unemployed to say earn US$100,000 a year or to starve. Everyone to build a beautiful house tax free from the Indian or African poor for the American to be rich but unemployed? I mean I know you US guys are pretty special and all that - no higher interest rates and fiscal austerity like a Thai Government that gets into debt problems - but you really cant expect US citizens to have billionaire houses, millionaired unemployees, stop paying taxes because it is inconvenient, 5 maids and a secretary just because you think you have invented the hamburger or the ipod. Life doesnt work like that.

[midas]

Benefits .........ha ha ha that is so funny - Obama has just announced they are cutting Social Security payments :cheesy:

I for one missed that, can you privide a link or such?

sure thing !

Courtesy of Karl Denninger

see halfway down the page - entitled " Social Security Going Down "

http://market-ticker.org/

[siamamerican]

Anyway you have got to admit it did fool you.

The entire fit has been achieved by manipulating the modern day time line. Compressing the data to fit if need be and stretching it at other points and not even matching it at others.

Actually I never paid it that much mind. I saw it as a link & thought it interesting along the lines of the old 4 bears chart.

http://dshort.com/charts/bear-markets.html?four-bears

But I admit I do not see all the manipulation you claim above. Dont both graphs show roughly 15 months time span?

( in comparison section)

Do you have another graph that you could overlay to show this manipulation? Just curious as always & as i said just something I thought was interesting.

Inquisitive minds are wondering how a curious person doesn't look at the prior years and the following years. A person with a love for the dramatic and ridiculous posts this type of banal trash. Just like the last graph Midas posted. Give it up you guys! You both have shown your lack of ability to predict any future outcome.

Oh, and keep telling us you wish for the best but at the same time are utterly determined to forecast doom. I used to get frustrated with Midas and yourself ( I don't include Alex - he irrelevant ) , but now I just laugh at your foolish attempts to show us investors that didn't panick how foolish we are now.

Some of your funniest posts:

April 3, 2009 - I just don't see any way we could even consider a bottom. There has been zero resolution to restore any kind of faith.

May 2, 2009 - couldn't believe the stupidity on CNBC today. Three suits all saying.................Yes looks like what ever we have done is working....Yes we may see another healthy little pull back but that is normal.

August 2, 2009 - Like I said definitely a crossroad but logically I am 99% certain we have nowhere to go but down

February 11, 2009 - As more & more become unemployed there will be increased theft surely. Again the dense pop cities will be a scary place IMHO. Another post that day - For gods sake we have hippies buying 357 mags now

Now if those posts aren't hilarious, you don't have a sense of humor.

[midas]

I am not sure what you are after Midas. If you believe that the Obama Government is essentially a 'communist' one by way they tax everyone 100% of income, then I can see your anger, confiscate private land would be an example. I am not American, so I see that tax or tax reliefs over and above say 50% for people earning over US$250,000 should be rescinded is rationale. I have seen no laws whereby private land should be nationalised or that people earning over US$5m will be taxed at over 70% leaving them US$1.5m minimum to live on. Of course I maybe under some misapprehension on the basis that all the people I know who earn that sort of money are certainly not going to put themselves in the position to be taxed so highly.

But I am still confused by what you actually want.

its not a question of what want or I am after !

12D recently posted an article saying the Inland Revenue in UK is proposing

that salary cheques go direct to them and after deducting your tax

you will get what is left over from them . Now it is revealed just how Obama

thinks........i.e he sees nothing wrong with a taxation rate of 100%.

If Homer Simpson cannot detect a dangerous and worrying trend developing here

then he is delusional.........

Edited October 11, 2010 by midas

[midas]

Anyway you have got to admit it did fool you.

The entire fit has been achieved by manipulating the modern day time line. Compressing the data to fit if need be and stretching it at other points and not even matching it at others.

Actually I never paid it that much mind. I saw it as a link & thought it interesting along the lines of the old 4 bears chart.

http://dshort.com/charts/bear-markets.html?four-bears

But I admit I do not see all the manipulation you claim above. Dont both graphs show roughly 15 months time span?

( in comparison section)

Do you have another graph that you could overlay to show this manipulation? Just curious as always & as i said just something I thought was interesting.

Inquisitive minds are wondering how a curious person doesn't look at the prior years and the following years. A person with a love for the dramatic and ridiculous posts this type of banal trash. Just like the last graph Midas posted. Give it up you guys! You both have shown your lack of ability to predict any future outcome.

Oh, and keep telling us you wish for the best but at the same time are utterly determined to forecast doom. I used to get frustrated with Midas and yourself ( I don't include Alex - he irrelevant ) , but now I just laugh at your foolish attempts to show us investors that didn't panick how foolish we are now.

Some of your funniest posts:

April 3, 2009 - I just don't see any way we could even consider a bottom. There has been zero resolution to restore any kind of faith.

May 2, 2009 - couldn't believe the stupidity on CNBC today. Three suits all saying.................Yes looks like what ever we have done is working....Yes we may see another healthy little pull back but that is normal.

August 2, 2009 - Like I said definitely a crossroad but logically I am 99% certain we have nowhere to go but down

February 11, 2009 - As more & more become unemployed there will be increased theft surely. Again the dense pop cities will be a scary place IMHO. Another post that day - For gods sake we have hippies buying 357 mags now

Now if those posts aren't hilarious, you don't have a sense of humor.

apparently another person in the Stock Market thread toady

seems to think you are also

[Abrak]

Benefits .........ha ha ha that is so funny - Obama has just announced they are cutting Social Security payments :cheesy:

I for one missed that, can you privide a link or such?

sure thing !

Courtesy of Karl Denninger

see halfway down the page - entitled " Social Security Going Down "

http://market-ticker.org/

Again Midas do not live in dream land. You cannot live in the world where it is evil to tax people or it is evil to reduce the benefits of the underprivileged. That tax on success is not a necessity if you feel you should support the less fortunate. You, at you at your heart might not want people to pay taxes, but I suspect you would like to support the disabled disadvantaged uneducated and unemployed. Bt1000 only goes so far - it will never be worth anything else. Dont pretend there is a world where the old, disadvantaged, disabled and less fortunate should suffer unduly due to the rich talented and priveleged.

If you believe that your philosophy is so Darwinian as to make you no more than an animal in which case the conscience and sentience that you have inherited is ill-deserved then you might as well be a cock-croach. While you might feel think this thought is insulting at least consider the cock-croach who has never been given the opportunity of anything else has no other choice.

Do not believe in an imaginary world whereby US taxes can go down, benefits to the unfortunate can go up and it can all be paid for by subservient underprivileged non-Americans. He died of Alzeiheimers.

[Abrak]

Anyway you have got to admit it did fool you.

The entire fit has been achieved by manipulating the modern day time line. Compressing the data to fit if need be and stretching it at other points and not even matching it at others.

Actually I never paid it that much mind. I saw it as a link & thought it interesting along the lines of the old 4 bears chart.

http://dshort.com/charts/bear-markets.html?four-bears

But I admit I do not see all the manipulation you claim above. Dont both graphs show roughly 15 months time span?

( in comparison section)

Do you have another graph that you could overlay to show this manipulation? Just curious as always & as i said just something I thought was interesting.

Inquisitive minds are wondering how a curious person doesn't look at the prior years and the following years. A person with a love for the dramatic and ridiculous posts this type of banal trash. Just like the last graph Midas posted. Give it up you guys! You both have shown your lack of ability to predict any future outcome.

Oh, and keep telling us you wish for the best but at the same time are utterly determined to forecast doom. I used to get frustrated with Midas and yourself ( I don't include Alex - he irrelevant ) , but now I just laugh at your foolish attempts to show us investors that didn't panick how foolish we are now.

Some of your funniest posts:

April 3, 2009 - I just don't see any way we could even consider a bottom. There has been zero resolution to restore any kind of faith.

May 2, 2009 - couldn't believe the stupidity on CNBC today. Three suits all saying.................Yes looks like what ever we have done is working....Yes we may see another healthy little pull back but that is normal.

August 2, 2009 - Like I said definitely a crossroad but logically I am 99% certain we have nowhere to go but down

February 11, 2009 - As more & more become unemployed there will be increased theft surely. Again the dense pop cities will be a scary place IMHO. Another post that day - For gods sake we have hippies buying 357 mags now

Now if those posts aren't hilarious, you don't have a sense of humor.

I would warn against anyone who can predict the future personally. It really is very difficult.

The best statistical analysis (which incidentally people have a huge problem with) is in terms of mapping a historical model. Once you can map a historical model (there is a post on the gold section recently that makes a good attempt) that fits with actual price movement you have a start.

Unfortunately you are starting with historical data which cannot be a reliable resource for future date. Where it is helpful would be if you created a model of the S&P500 based on historical real fundamentals and in year 2000 you could tell that based on historic values the average returns on a ten year year period would be be -1% in real terms (excluding inflation). This sounds good but if real GDP growth was to exceed 6.3% per annum then equities would have actually been fair value. But this had not been exceeded over the past 300 years despite better demographics.

It is not difficult to map returns. Bonds are rather speculative because they have fixed nominal returns and rather unreliable real returns over long periods but I dont invest in that sort of thing.

One thing in terms of returns that people find incredibly difficult is that if a price goes up its expected return goes down. I have no idea why people seem to think the opposite is true. In fact, the opposite is mathematically impossible.

Edited October 11, 2010 by Abrak

[AlexLah]

Thank you so much Siam for saying what you said about me.

I have been saying from the start of this alleged crisis that we were not being told the truth about what really was the problem.

Remember the first thing that was mentioned was that many people where buying houses they could not afford.

Anyway,we have to consider the false ratings from the rating agencies after they (The bankers) bundled up those mortgages, sliced them into pieces and sold them off as MBS, knowing they had a high chance of failure and they bet against them.

AIG was helped to pay off these contracts.

What has been done during QE 1 to resolve those issues?

Nothing!

Some accounting rules were implemented to avoid rating these MBS and mortgages to their true value, so they can just keep them on the books for the original value.

Remember Geithner saying his plan would work and when asking him about plan B he did not have an answer other then: This will work.

This whole title issue will be the start of the final meltdown of the US economy unless OB will sign some kind of rule that will help the bankers to avoid court cases in whatever way.

Take care!

Alex

.

[jcon]

eh not worth it, lanna already summed up my thoughts in another thread.

Edited October 11, 2010 by jcon

[siamamerican]

Come on - you are smarter than this!!! If the market repeated 1929's performance after hitting its bottom, I will have much more money than I do today.

Anyway you have got to admit it did fool you.

The entire fit has been achieved by manipulating the modern day time line. Compressing the data to fit if need be and stretching it at other points and not even matching it at others.

I thought it odd their could be so many similarities until I looked at the dates. Could you imagine the world if Midas and Flying were the norm. Constantly telling everybody they are stupid regardless of history and facts. Complaining about everything and incapable of accepting any view but their own.

[siamamerican]

This whole title issue will be the start of the final meltdown of the US economy unless OB will sign some kind of rule that will help the bankers to avoid court cases in whatever way.

Take care!

Alex

.

and I referred to you as irrelevant. The title issue is now are going to going to cause the final melt down. I'm furiously selling all my equity positions as I type. THANK YOU!

[siamamerican]

This whole title issue will be the start of the final meltdown of the US economy unless OB will sign some kind of rule that will help the bankers to avoid court cases in whatever way.

Take care!

Alex

.

and I referred to you as irrelevant. The title issue is now going to going to cause the final melt down. I'm furiously selling all my equity positions as I type. THANK YOU!

[Abrak]

so i am wondering if this kind of attitude could spread to

money owed to the IRS e.g after the big tax hikes coming in January 2011 ?

That would be fun and games

Actually Midas, the reason there will be no fun and games, is this.

If you look at the situation, you have a choice between the Government running things who are useless and inefficient (and often corrupt) or the bankers running things (who are inefficient, greedy, corrupt (and often useless)). Now that is the situation and, seriously, it hasnt changed and it will never change - we (meaning me) is not going to turn into a rice farmer in Isaan or collecting gold coins on the basis that one day I will be anointed the Emperor. If you need a business plan, look at Paris Hilton, and get yourself a fluffy dog (preferably one that can lick its own balls.)

you seem to be a lazy person Abrak!

Ouch!! Now you get to a subject close to my heart...

Well I do agree that I believe that real work is for losers. I was a disappointment to mother, who gave me a really good education, until she died. I have never done anything productive, like being a Doctor, in my life.

All I can do well is make capital out of capital. Now gold investors will tell you they do that, but they are the really lazy ones.

And really when it comes down to what I do, I can promise you I am far more productive helping out some charity, then if you had me on the ground pretending to be helpful as some NGO.

And while, I cannot claim to be a really hard worker, I can promise you I do put a lot of hard work in. By that I mean I will read a 250 page prospectus (almost for pleasure) in something I have no intention of investing in, simply because I think that learning about what you dont know can help you learn about what you know.