Financial Crisis

[Abrak]

Not wishing to suddenly become a chartist but these 'key reversals' are around quite a bit.

Here is one that fits very nicely. Cotton.

Now as there is a bit of doubt how a key reversal should be defined, I will give you a basic web definition. I am not saying anyone else definition is wrong, often chartists like to increment definitions, so as to make the indicator more reliable.

http://hubpages.com/hub/Key_Reversal

As you can see from the blurb 'key reversals' are 'rare' but 'very reliable'. Also note that 'key reversals' are 'strong' indicators after a long uptrend and dont mean a lot in terms of reversing a two week trend. (Personally they tend also to work best in high volumes but I guess most indicators do.)

The reason you are seeing a lot of them all at once when they dont occur very often is because commodities have been largely tracking one another. On the day the Thai stockmarket peaked on January 6th 1994, the market made a perfect key reversal as did 37 of the underlying stocks.

[midas]

Can somebody explain in plain English what QE is meant to achieve and if it is working as Trichet and Bernanke seem to talk a different language /

'The European Central Bank's crisis support measures are temporary in nature and should not be confused with quantitative easing, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said on Saturday.

"All our non-standard measures help restore a more normal monetary policy transmission mechanism which is necessary to fulfil our primary mandate of accomplishing price stability," Trichet said in a speech at a conference organised by Germany's Political Club.

"It is not to be confused with quantitative easing policies that aim to reduce longer-term interest rates."'

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/trichet-ecb-support-temporary-not-qe-backs-recovery-reuters_molt-424d383b35b5.html?x=0&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

So QE is meant to reduce longer-term interest rates - but in fact they are rising ?

'Since the QE pre-announcement at the end of August, the long bond has gone from below 3.6% to above 4.2%, a huge move. Can owners of large positions get out fast enough? This is PIMCO's nightmare come to life.'

http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2010/11/qe-stumbles-at-the-starting-blocks.html

Yes the thing about the long bond is all a bit embarrassing but really PIMCO is about the only institution who thinks that long term along with future French pensioners. Unfortunately in order to keep Ron Paul and Midas happy, Bernanke thought it would be great and publish his US$150bn buy order so that people would see the Fed is transparent (and make primary dealers wet dreams a reality.) If you look at Lanna's link you can see they have various US$2bn days when they purchase the long end of the curve but it only amounts to about 14% of the total.

Thanks , still seems quite a gamble with so many differing views /

Well this is a pretty simple explanation churchill

People have been giving it a thumbs up.

At 2:14... ....uncomfortable silence...

And as for transparency from the Fed well what was it

Homer Simpson said " it takes two to lie. One to lie and one to listen."

Edited November 14, 2010 by midas

[midas]

" I do not know how the Third World War will be fought, but I can tell you what they will use in the Fourth—rocks! "

Albert Einstein

http://www.veteranstoday.com/2010/11/11/gordon-duff-in-motion-the-plot-to-destroy-the-united-states/

[churchill]

Yes we saw that some time ago on the Gold Thread

The Fed ( Zimbernanke ) is spending( QE -ING ) to keep long term interest rates low ,to try to encourage investment and Obama & Co are increasing spending on Health Care along with everything else / and Now with the latest elections are any bills going to be passed ? The Fed seems to be opposed at this stage to Ron Paul & Co - So how can investors be confident in any positive outcome ?

They say they want to reduce the deficit , where from without growth ? Can they reduce Military spending ? Health Care is going to rise - They say they need to spend more on infrastructure , where are the cuts coming from ? What about the extra money that local governments , pensions need - what about the mortgage foreclosure mess ?

They should have increased spending on Infrastructure to get more back to work and will now probably do so - Tax rates are not going to rise /How is confidence going to increase with falling house prices / Who is going to spend more when the value of their home is going down ?

The UK has made a start - will it work ? who knows but it seems like the only sane option / I don't think printing paper to solve problems can work /

Europe has its own problems with Ireland and ... but I feel they are a step ahead of the US /

and China/Asia need to get their act together - If the US , Europe have problems where are all the exports from China etc going to go /

So where do investors put their cash USD or Euros , EUROS ?

Edited November 14, 2010 by churchill

[churchill]

This explains it pretty well

The Federal Reserve is Laundering Money

[BlackJack]

Can somebody explain in plain English what QE is meant to achieve and if it is working as Trichet and Bernanke seem to talk a different language /

'The European Central Bank's crisis support measures are temporary in nature and should not be confused with quantitative easing, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said on Saturday.

"All our non-standard measures help restore a more normal monetary policy transmission mechanism which is necessary to fulfil our primary mandate of accomplishing price stability," Trichet said in a speech at a conference organised by Germany's Political Club.

"It is not to be confused with quantitative easing policies that aim to reduce longer-term interest rates."'

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/trichet-ecb-support-temporary-not-qe-backs-recovery-reuters_molt-424d383b35b5.html?x=0&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

So QE is meant to reduce longer-term interest rates - but in fact they are rising ?

'Since the QE pre-announcement at the end of August, the long bond has gone from below 3.6% to above 4.2%, a huge move. Can owners of large positions get out fast enough? This is PIMCO's nightmare come to life.'

http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2010/11/qe-stumbles-at-the-starting-blocks.html

Yes the thing about the long bond is all a bit embarrassing but really PIMCO is about the only institution who thinks that long term along with future French pensioners. Unfortunately in order to keep Ron Paul and Midas happy, Bernanke thought it would be great and publish his US$150bn buy order so that people would see the Fed is transparent (and make primary dealers wet dreams a reality.) If you look at Lanna's link you can see they have various US$2bn days when they purchase the long end of the curve but it only amounts to about 14% of the total.

Thanks , still seems quite a gamble with so many differing views /

Well this is a pretty simple explanation churchill

People have been giving it a thumbs up.

At 2:14... ....uncomfortable silence...

And as for transparency from the Fed well what was it

Homer Simpson said " it takes two to lie. One to lie and one to listen."

when you see it as concise and as simply put as this it does seem like the Twilight Zone

[flying]

This explains it pretty well

The Federal Reserve is Laundering Money

Yes not as plain as the other QE video which was quite good for newbies.

But still good

Also just good to see more & more explain it simply for more to hopefully grasp.

Because it is in fact as he said...20% cannot even point out on a map where they live

As more get educated/angry I do wonder though where it will go/end up

[Naam]

unfortunately i haven't seen any useful explanation (whether 'yewtoob' or other) which provides some guidance how to counteract, respectivly to protect interest of us investors. bitching does not lead to results!

:jap:

[Naam]

So where do investors put their cash USD or Euros , EUROS ?

informed investors try hard to stay away from USD and €UR and hold assets in these two currencies only if the risk/reward ratio is rather promising.

[BlackJack]

"Nature decays, but latinum lasts forever."

- 102nd Rule of Acquisition

Latinum is a rare silver liquid used as currency by the Ferengi Alliance and many other worlds. It cannot be replicated. For ease of transaction, latinum is usually suspended within gold to produce "gold-pressed" latinum.

Denominations of gold-pressed latinum, in order of increasing value, include the slip, the strip, the bar and the brick.

IMO collect the brick

Edited November 15, 2010 by BlackJack

[Abrak]

unfortunately i haven't seen any useful explanation (whether 'yewtoob' or other) which provides some guidance how to counteract, respectivly to protect interest of us investors. bitching does not lead to results!

:jap:

Well Mr Bernanke has explained this and doesnt particularly feel you are looking at things very positively. You see he has explained that under the QE the price of things goes up be they bonds, stocks, PMs or rice. As such everyone feels richer (a wealth effect) and the economy enters a virtuous circle whereby everyone spends more and invests more.

Your rather cynical approach that nothing has really gone up but the value of the dollar is simply being crucified and wealth is in fact being eroded (even though it has some support such as negative real yields on TIPs) is not very constructive.

[Naam]

unfortunately i haven't seen any useful explanation (whether 'yewtoob' or other) which provides some guidance how to counteract, respectivly to protect interest of us investors. bitching does not lead to results!

:jap:

Well Mr Bernanke has explained this and doesnt particularly feel you are looking at things very positively. You see he has explained that under the QE the price of things goes up be they bonds, stocks, PMs or rice. As such everyone feels richer (a wealth effect) and the economy enters a virtuous circle whereby everyone spends more and invests more.

Your rather cynical approach that nothing has really gone up but the value of the dollar is simply being crucified and wealth is in fact being eroded (even though it has some support such as negative real yields on TIPs) is not very constructive.

mea culpa! i repent and promise to be more constructive in future as well as refrain from criticising Herrn Bernanke. also i will fight teeth and claws these abominable creatures like M. Idas, Alex L. Ah and my good chinese friend F.L. Ying when they attack Herr Bernanke and Herr Geithner by accusing them of lèse majesté although i have no idea how Queen Elizabeth (GOD save the Queen!) is involved in printing Dollars and money laundering.

[flying]

and my good chinese friend F.L. Ying

[midas]

unfortunately i haven't seen any useful explanation (whether 'yewtoob' or other) which provides some guidance how to counteract, respectivly to protect interest of us investors. bitching does not lead to results!

:jap:

i dont look at it that way - i look at it that the people

are involved in self education regarding a subject which it seems

pretty evident has been hidden from them for a long time

Rome wasnt built....etc etc....

I am more encouraged that more people have temporarily stopped

watching " American Idol " and seem to be asking for more information

such as this.....baby steps

[BlackJack]

so if i click my heals together and say take me home

where will i end up

[BlackJack]

sign of the times

carrefour sells out to Big C

there goes my feta cheese

[midas]

sign of the times

carrefour sells out to Big C

there goes my feta cheese

if you are an Australian citizen ( which i think you are )

i think this is also a sign of the times - this would never

have happened in the good old days -

four times in less than two weeks.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-15/qantas-says-argentina-flight-returns-to-sydney-after-technical-difficulty.html

[badge]

As Oztrailens I think this is a sign of the times too

Some sense here;

Jeremy Grantham 'US Markets Dangerously Overpriced'

http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/archives/1215

[Naam]

sign of the times

carrefour sells out to Big C

there goes my feta cheese

Feta has been promoted and is now called cheese?

[Abrak]

Some sense here;

Jeremy Grantham 'US Markets Dangerously Overpriced'

http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/archives/1215

Great stuff. Spot on. It is amazing how a little bit of common sense goes a long way. He should be on National TV rather than Magic Roundabout.

[LaoPo]

In the meantime there's the Dubai drama where the bubble keeps bubbling due to the megalomaniacal behavior of it's ruler, Sheikh Mohammed, and where Dubai Group missed a payment of $ 1,5bn....

and...

"...UAE-based banker, speaking on condition of anonymity. "This is quite concerning now; we need to show the cash (payment) in our books."

http://ftalphaville....vereign-crisis/

related:

http://www.businessw...ic-finance.html

LaoPo

[12DrinkMore]

Hi, it's me again,

Although I could make more than a few vitriolic comments on "currency wars", Geithner, Bernanke and the Euro-debtors, for the time being I'll refrain and offer you this from the UK.

"Britain's Trillion Pound Horror Story"

I keep hearing "Hazlitt"..... His "Economics in One Lesson" should be required reading for all politwits, econotwits, politwit econotwits, and most importantly for all of the public service leeches, who now account for more than 50% of the UK GDP. In some areas government spending is almost 80% of the local economy. As the documentary points out, if government stimulus worked then Northern Ireland would be the most prosperous country in the universe.

The proposed solution to cut government spending by 50% and get off the back of the private sector, well, there is no way that is going to happen.

Somehow I get the feeling that the Chinese guy at the end chuckling to himself simply knows where the future is..... And it isn't in Tyneside, or Newcastle, or London.. Nope, you have to look at Asia.

[flying]

so if i click my heals together and say take me home

where will i end up

Hopefully somewhere with more food than people

[waza]

sign of the times

carrefour sells out to Big C

there goes my feta cheese

if you are an Australian citizen ( which i think you are )

i think this is also a sign of the times - this would never

have happened in the good old days -

four times in less than two weeks.

http://www.bloomberg...difficulty.html

Yep Quantas hasnt been the same since BA bought in.

[flying]

Anticlimactic

IMF Lowers Dollar, Yen Weights in Its SDR Valuation Basket, Increases Euro

The International Monetary Fund reduced the weighting of the U.S. dollar and the yen and increased that of the euro in its Special Drawing Rights valuation basket after its regular five-year review.

The value of the SDR, which the IMF created in 1969 to supplement its member countries official reserves, will continue to be based on a basket of currencies comprised of the dollar, euro, yen and pound, the fund said in an e-mailed statement. UBS AG, the world’s second-largest foreign-exchange trader, said in June that the fund may include the Australian and Canadian dollars in the SDR basket this year, boosting demand for the commodity-backed currencies.

“There’s a long-term trend towards less U.S. dollars and more euro in terms of where central banks are putting their reserves, and this is consistent with that,” said Joseph Capurso, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney. “There was some talk of the IMF putting in other currencies like the Aussie, but they’ve kept to the big four.”

The greenback’s weighting declined to 41.9 percent compared with 44 percent after a 2005 review, the fund said in its statement dated Nov. 15. The euro’s share rose to 37.4 percent from 34 percent. The yen’s fell to 9.4 percent from 11 percent, while the pound was little changed at 11.3 percent. SDRs are the Washington-based lender’s unit of account.

The new valuations will be effective Jan. 1, the fund said.

Edited November 16, 2010 by flying

[midas]

sign of the times

carrefour sells out to Big C

there goes my feta cheese

if you are an Australian citizen ( which i think you are )

i think this is also a sign of the times - this would never

have happened in the good old days -

four times in less than two weeks.

http://www.bloomberg...difficulty.html

Yep Quantas hasnt been the same since BA bought in.

safety was its number 1 " brand feature " - a great shame if passengers

perceive that has been lost because of cost cutting

Edited November 16, 2010 by midas

[flying]

Kind of fun.............

Budget Puzzle: You Fix the Budget

[lannarebirth]

Kind of fun.............

Budget Puzzle: You Fix the Budget

I got us in the black without working up much of a sweat and I'll still make my dinner appointment.

[teletiger]

I got us in the black without working up much of a sweat and I'll still make my dinner appointment.

How are you going to get past the pitchfork mob outside your house?

Regards.

[AlexLah]

Easy, where can I sign up for the job?