Financial Crisis

[midas]

Marc Faber: Moral Decay Among The Elites Proves America Is A "Failed State"

“A level-headed, knowledgeable, and intelligent American friend of mine (she has been buying gold for years) recently observed that, “Only when the American people insist that sound business practices and moral standards be brought back will we be able to give the people of this country a future.” Unfortunately, I believe that the ongoing moral decay among US politicians and the business elite, the irresponsible fiscal and monetary policies, the decline in educational standards and infrastructure, the trade and current account deficit, the weak US dollar, and the heavy- handed and ambiguous meddling in foreign affairs by US officials, are all pieces in a puzzle, which when assembled reads: Failed State."

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/marc-faber-america-is-a-failed-state-2011-3#ixzz1IC3jELbG

[BlackJack]

Just tossing it out there: RMB-denominated securities will soon be listed on the HKEx (Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing LTD). As I understand from my bank, I can hold RMB without restriction in whatever settlement account I use. That's a bit of a change from the RMB forwards that we (Naam and I?) have discussed either on this thread or another.

yes JCon we discussed non deliverable forwards. but the problem is that (as of today) all offshore CNY denominated securities are illiquid like a granite rock because of their tiny emission volumes. therefore it dose not make to much sense to fill a settlement account (if that is possible without a settlement in sight) with cash if it can't be used.

i am referring of course to bonds which are also available OTC.

i just love the way you say emission volumes

it reminds me of why i came (pun) to live in Thailand

[flying]

Harry Dent: “Major Crash” Coming for Stocks, Commodities Already Topping Out

[midas]

Harry Dent: “Major Crash” Coming for Stocks, Commodities Already Topping Out

I dont believe it anymore ! the powers that be will never allow

the most important psychological indicator that everything is " normal " to fall.

Edited April 2, 2011 by midas

[flying]

Harry Dent: “Major Crash” Coming for Stocks, Commodities Already Topping Out

I dont believe it anymore ! the powers that be will never allow

the most important psychological indicator that everything is " normal " to fall.

I am not banking on anything so it is just curiosity

But.....I found this interesting because some cycle types have also called for a June crash

As always interesting to watch predictions & their reasoning

[Naam]

“I am thinking about buying it [dollar], because if it doesn’t keep going down, then it’s going to have a big rally,” he offered. “If it holds here, it probably could go up 10% or 12%–no, maybe 20%.”

But on the downside, Rogers put the dollar on a short leash, “If it goes down 3% or 4% from here, I would have to sell and get out and hope I’m still solvent. Then it’s going to, you know, multi-decade new lows.”

“Somewhere along the line we’re going to have a tipping point for the dollar, then, it’s all over,” he concluded. “I thought it would happen in a few years; maybe it’s going to happen in a few weeks.”

i always liked and admired gurus like Rogers because of their extremely precise forecasts.

[BlackJack]

“I am thinking about buying it [dollar], because if it doesn’t keep going down, then it’s going to have a big rally,” he offered. “If it holds here, it probably could go up 10% or 12%–no, maybe 20%.”

But on the downside, Rogers put the dollar on a short leash, “If it goes down 3% or 4% from here, I would have to sell and get out and hope I’m still solvent. Then it’s going to, you know, multi-decade new lows.”

“Somewhere along the line we’re going to have a tipping point for the dollar, then, it’s all over,” he concluded. “I thought it would happen in a few years; maybe it’s going to happen in a few weeks.”

i always liked and admired gurus like Rogers because of their extremely precise forecasts.

thinking, if, probably, hope, somewhere, thought, maybe = yes i think maybe youre possible right

[12DrinkMore]

The Observer has picked up on the OBR forecast that household debt will increase by 35% over the next five years.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/apr/02/family-debt-burden-government-figures

The Office for Budget Responsibility has raised its prediction of total household debt in 2015 by a staggering £303bn since late last year, in the belief that families and individuals will respond to straitened times by extra borrowing. Average household debt based on the OBR figures is forecast to rise to £77,309 by 2015, rather than the £66,291 under previous projections.

My head is reeling at this.

In times of boom and optimism I can understand that the peeps will borrow as they feel they can afford it and deserve a slice of tomorrow's wealth today.

But now the OBR reckon that in hard times the peeps will ramp up their borrowing even faster. This does not sit comfortably with the Great Austerity pledge, unless the borrowing is absolutely necessary to provide food and accommodation for the masses.

I wonder what the OBR know that we don't? How did they put together this forecast?

One possibility is that they have "assumed" a steady increase in GDP, subtracted the government's planned contribution to it and then planted the remaining number across all households, which in some Great Nationalistic Sacrifice will load themselves up with debt to prevent the GDP from slipping below the nice 2% or so growth. Thereby allowing the Cameron and Osborne to claim an economic success.

There are also implications for the BoE and interest rates. Staring at this forecast, is Merv likely to ramp up interest rates, an action which would cause even more impoverishment? Don't forget that Merv has two responsibilities

1. To keep a stable finance system running

2. To maintain a 2% inflation rate

As we have seen over the last couple of years, his focus is on number 1. I will not be surprised to see a string of letters from Merv "the current rate of inflation is above target due to short term temporary fluctuations, I confidently expect to see inflation fall to within the target range in the next two years".

(Hey Merv! You can even copy and paste it from here!)

The can is being kicked down the road for the next five years.

1. I wonder what happens then?

2. Will the UK population play ball?

Edited April 3, 2011 by 12DrinkMore

[Naam]

“I am thinking about buying it [dollar], because if it doesn’t keep going down, then it’s going to have a big rally,” he offered. “If it holds here, it probably could go up 10% or 12%–no, maybe 20%.”

But on the downside, Rogers put the dollar on a short leash, “If it goes down 3% or 4% from here, I would have to sell and get out and hope I’m still solvent. Then it’s going to, you know, multi-decade new lows.”

“Somewhere along the line we’re going to have a tipping point for the dollar, then, it’s all over,” he concluded. “I thought it would happen in a few years; maybe it’s going to happen in a few weeks.”

i always liked and admired gurus like Rogers because of their extremely precise forecasts.

thinking, if, probably, hope, somewhere, thought, maybe = yes i think maybe youre possible right

if anybody would claim on Bloomberg or CNBC "two plus two equals four" he'd never be invited again

[12DrinkMore]

Here's an amusing Schiff vid on what is counterfeit money and what is not.

http://www.europac.net/media/video_blog/jobs_report_important_schiff_radio_interview

And I hope that they Liberty Dollar guy does not end up in a prison. That's where all the real counterfeiters, frauds and deceivers should be. And we all know who they are.

[flying]

It’s Time For A Government Shutdown

Should be interesting....Also of interest from the article

a new Rasmussen poll indicates that 57% of Americans like the idea if it is the only way to get deeper budget cuts.

[12DrinkMore]

Here we go, and this is a good'un from Geithner

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/04/us-usa-budget-debt-idUSTRE7335BY20110404?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews

The United States will hit the legal limit on its ability to borrow no later than May 16, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on Monday, ramping up pressure on Congress to act to avoid a debt default. "The longer Congress fails to act, the more we risk that investors here and around the world will lose confidence in our ability to meet our commitments and our obligations," Geithner said in a letter to congressional leaders.

"Default by the United States is unthinkable."

Raise the limit, will they or won't they? We know the answer, but at what level will they set the new ceiling? Might as well accept the facts and have done with it.

"Infinite Debt forever"

"Yeah!", cry the bankers, we've got you all firmly by the cobblers now.

[lannarebirth]

Here we go, and this is a good'un from Geithner

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/04/us-usa-budget-debt-idUSTRE7335BY20110404?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews

The United States will hit the legal limit on its ability to borrow no later than May 16, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on Monday, ramping up pressure on Congress to act to avoid a debt default. "The longer Congress fails to act, the more we risk that investors here and around the world will lose confidence in our ability to meet our commitments and our obligations," Geithner said in a letter to congressional leaders.

"Default by the United States is unthinkable."

Raise the limit, will they or won't they? We know the answer, but at what level will they set the new ceiling? Might as well accept the facts and have done with it.

"Infinite Debt forever"

"Yeah!", cry the bankers, we've got you all firmly by the cobblers now.

"Neither a borrower nor a lender be; For loan oft loses both itself and friend, and borrowing dulls the edge of husbandry" What an ignorant SOB Shakespeare was. No wonder no one remembers anything he ever wrote. If only he'd met Tim Geithner and Jim Cramer.

[12DrinkMore]

"Neither a borrower nor a lender be; For loan oft loses both itself and friend, and borrowing dulls the edge of husbandry" What an ignorant SOB Shakespeare was. No wonder no one remembers anything he ever wrote. If only he'd met Tim Geithner and Jim Cramer.

They don't need to venture so far from their own shores.

Jefferson, (who probably did not utter these words in this form, but no reason for the US government to ignore the message.

If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered...I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies... The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs.

[midas]

If this happens surely all bets are off around the world ?

And King Abdullah is 86 ... what happens when he passes on ?

UPDATE 2-Oil could hit $200-$300 on Saudi unrest-Yamani

http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFLDE7340MU20110405

[churchill]

March Madness: U.S. Gov't Spent More Than Eight Times Its Monthly Revenue

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/march-madness-feds-spent-more-eight-time

[flying]

March Madness: U.S. Gov't Spent More Than Eight Times Its Monthly Revenue

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/march-madness-feds-spent-more-eight-time

Yep....funny the tighter & tighter they claim to be on budget the more & more they spend like drunken sailors.

I dont care if it is just a right vs left standoff.....I hope they hold tight & let the Federal Government take a no pay vacation.

We will see

[Naam]

If this happens surely all bets are off around the world ?

And King Abdullah is 86 ... what happens when he passes on ?

UPDATE 2-Oil could hit $200-$300 on Saudi unrest-Yamani

http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFLDE7340MU20110405

Ahmed Zaki should not be trusted on anything he says about Saudi Arabia and/or oil. since he was kicked out of the Kingdom end of 1986 (for reasons other than those mentioned in biographies and wikipedia) he is a disgruntled man with negative views on Saudi Arabia.

[flying]

"We Don't Need A Bailout... We Don't Need A Bailout...Uh, We Need A Bailout": Portugal Admits To Needing EU Rescue

Update: It's Official. Portugal is Bankrupt: Portuguese finance minister says the country will have to use European Union mechanisms to resolve its debt problems, to make announcement at 8PM.

In the biggest shocker to come out just hours before the ECB's announcement tomorrow, which many see is a guaranteed rate hike, Journal de Negocios has just announced that according to the Portuguese Finance Minister, the country needs a bailout, after weeks and weeks of Greece-style denials. And yes, nobody could have foreseen this, and all that jazz.

From Negocios:

The Minister of Finance considers that Portugal has already asked for help. In a written response to questions raised by the Business, Fernando Teixeira dos Santos said that "it is necessary to refer to available funding mechanisms in the European framework".

and more:

Fernando Teixeira dos Santos believes that Portugal needs to ask for help, a set of questions in writing.

Business: Portugal must now ask for help as they appeal the bankers and economists in general? The debt that you have to pay in a year do not worry you?

Fernando Teixeira dos Santos: "The country has irresponsibly pushed a very difficult situation in financial markets. Given this difficult situation, which could have been avoided, I think it is necessary to refer to available funding mechanisms in the European context as appropriate to the current political situation. This will require also the involvement and commitment of major forces and political institutions."

Greece...Ireland... Portugal... Hello Spain.

[jcon]

2 years.... this thread..... two. t.w.o. Do you see the initials for ''world order'' in there? Yes, it's a conspiracy. A conspiracy to waste 2 years of your life, that is.

I do hope that all of you have improved your situations (financial or otherwise) in this time frame. In two years a person could:

a) help a lot of people,

b ) fall in love,

c) spend time with family,

d) get super-fit,

e) build something,

f) get pretty darn good at a hobby,

g) make a shit-ton of cash,

f) have a whole ass-load of fun,

g) laugh. A lot. For 2 years.

.....and the list goes on. Hopefully, this section of TV is doing relatively well on those fronts as it's not like we're in the "general", aka "I-hate-myself-and-everything-around-me" section.

I see that I left music out of the list above, well go ahead and add it in there somewhere though there is no accounting for taste when it comes to music/art, so who knows what your preferences are.....a quick guess (have I done this before?):

Lannarebirth: Bob Dylan and CCR?

Naam: Simon and Garfunkel? Maybe Bruno e Marrone from Brasil?

Abrak: The Beatles and if you're super-cool, Hot Chip?

Flying: Bruce Springsteen (the <deleted>' BOSS!)?

Alexlah: ABBA and Cyndi Lauper.

If you don't feel something at 3:26-onwards above, you should not worry about any ''financial crisis'' as perhaps there is a bigger problem - you may not have a soul.... I'm pretty sure The Boss doesn't complain on internet forums. The Boss is 60+ years old and he can sell out stadiums and rock it for 2+ hours straight. The Boss has my respect. Max Weinberg on the drums is a machine. Look at that massive crowd..... I can only hope that I can rock it as hard as those dudes when I'm older :jap:

Back on (zzzzzzzzz) kind-of-topic, I bought EGCO today (Thai - and no I did not buy the entire company). Yes I know TEPCO (everybody's favorite current anti-christ) owns her, but TEPCO had just recently bought her from a HK conglomerate, and will probably lose her to another (Thai?) conglomerate....... doesn't matter much to me, as it's a long-term deal.

P.S. <deleted> the government. That just has to be said - again. And again.

P.P.S. What I just said.

[12DrinkMore]

2 years.... this thread..... two. t.w.o. Do you see the initials for ''world order'' in there? Yes, it's a conspiracy. A conspiracy to waste 2 years of your life, that is.

.....

.....

Blimey, what's up today jcon?

Obviously got a few minutes to spare away from all those things that keep you so busy otherwise

a) help a lot of people,

b ) fall in love,

c) spend time with family,

d) get super-fit,

e) build something,

f) get pretty darn good at a hobby,

g) make a shit-ton of cash,

f) have a whole ass-load of fun,

g) laugh. A lot. For 2 years.

h) listening to Bruce

Edited April 7, 2011 by 12DrinkMore

[flying]

A conspiracy to waste 2 years of your life, that is.

Actually I see only the government has wasted 2 years in their inability to fix what they broke.

Instead they have kicked the can nearer to the end of the road or if you will pushed the snowball into an impressive sized boulder now

I do hope that all of you have improved your situations (financial or otherwise) in this time frame.

Yes thank you I have done quite well, actually better than the tech boom of the late 90's , funny how a form of prepping has been so profitable

I see that I left music out of the list above, well go ahead and add it in there somewhere though there is no accounting for taste when it comes to music/art, so who knows what your preferences are.....a quick guess (have I done this before?):

Flying: Bruce Springsteen (the <deleted>' BOSS!)?

Oh Gawd no.......Springsteen?..... I am more in line with Joe Satriani, Stevie Ray Vaughan,etc.

But probably the song that loosely fits what has gone down & folks who claim we should not worry about the collapse that is well underway is Ritchie Kotzens "you can't save me" due to the one line in the song

Save me, but don’t worry about it now Better save your-<deleted>-self

The lines

<deleted> your money... <deleted> your fame

Dont hurt either

Edited April 7, 2011 by flying

[Naam]

jcon: I see that I left music out of the list above, well go ahead and add it in there somewhere though there is no accounting for taste when it comes to music/art, so who knows what your preferences are.....a quick guess (have I done this before?):

Lannarebirth: Bob Dylan and CCR?

Naam: Simon and Garfunkel? Maybe Bruno e Marrone from Brasil?

Abrak: The Beatles and if you're super-cool, Hot Chip?

Flying: Bruce Springsteen (the <deleted>' BOSS!)?

Alexlah: ABBA and Cyndi Lauper.

Simon and Garfunkel

Bruno e Marrone

CCR

[lannarebirth]

CCR

The scales have fallen from my eyes:

Down on the corner, out in the street

Wally and the Poorboys are playin'

Bring a nickel, tap your feet

[lannarebirth]

I'd call her an idiot if I didn't know she wasn't a corporate water carrier. Maybe evil is more appropriate.

http://finance.yahoo...045249-959.html

Edited April 8, 2011 by lannarebirth

[Naam]

CCR

The scales have fallen from my eyes

Some folks are born silver spoon in hand

Lord, don't they help themselves

It ain't me, it ain't me, I ain't no millionaire's son, no

It ain't me, it ain't me; I ain't no fortunate one, no

[flying]

Some folks are born silver spoon in hand

Lord, don't they help themselves

It ain't me, it ain't me, I ain't no millionaire's son, no

It ain't me, it ain't me; I ain't no fortunate one, no

My personal CCR favorite

[Naam]

My personal CCR favorite

for me the lyrics have a very special meaning and will be always a reminder

[jcon]

My personal CCR favorite

for me the lyrics have a very special meaning and will be always a reminder

Sorry about that, Naam. Everything works out in the end though, I'd say (and as you've probably experienced).

On a happier note, I'm picturing Naam smoking Reds and rockin' some Sennheiser HD800s while the wife brings a drink. That's not a bad life.....

12Drink, my post was a positive post. Save the first and last 2 lines (which were sarcastic and sarcastirogatory toward the gov't, respectively (yes I created that word myself, just now)), everything else was meant to be light-hearted. Apologies if it read differently.

Incidentally, I do rather enjoy CCR, and the song that has been referenced here. Unfortunately, in today's warped popular culture, it has come to represent what I believe is the opposite of the original meaning. Strange irony.

Flying - Satriani rocks the guitar with style. He's good at what he does so thumbs up! Anybody who is good at what they do deserves respect.

Sorry I hijacked he thread for 1 page.....

[Naam]

Sorry I hijacked he thread for 1 page...

sometimes a small change like the one you initiated is very refreshing!