Financial Crisis

[cheeryble]

There, I arrived at the missus house out in the peace and quiet here's the Roubini record.

My mistake it's the INDU not the SPY. In case you're unaware it's now over 13,500. What was it at the last Roubini call of doom? Oh yeah......9750.

BTW I have communicated with Nadeem Walayat and have given him constructive criticism of his grammar which can mess up his message occasionally and picked him up on a bad mistake in numbers once (he was civil and grateful for the corrections). However to give him his due right through the post crash period in question he was unequivocal that bear calls like Roubini's were utterly wrong. No-one's perfect of course and his meta-picture of much higher inflation is asking it's time, though I'm not unhappy to have moved 60% into solid assets and counting.

Edited September 25, 2012 by cheeryble

[Naam]

the references to the usual doom&gloomer suspects are most of the time quite amusing:

"the famous economist, lecturer, investor, hedge fund CEO <delete not applicable profession and insert name> who forecasted shortly after World WarII the <insert crisis> and who aires his views and prophecies quite often on <insert TV channels> declared yesterday "the sky will be falling any time from now!"

[midas]

the references to the usual doom&gloomer suspects are most of the time quite amusing:

"the famous economist, lecturer, investor, hedge fund CEO <delete not applicable profession and insert name> who forecasted shortly after World WarII the <insert crisis> and who aires his views and prophecies quite often on <insert TV channels> declared yesterday "the sky will be falling any time from now!"

the references to the usual doom&gloomer suspects are most of the time quite amusing:

so are the sublime optimists who encourage taking on even more debt such as the infamous quote

“We Have To Spend Money To Keep From Going Bankrupt “

all I can say is thank goodness they have a more responsible President in the United States otherwise where would we be then?

The fact that we are here today to debate raising America's debt limit is a sign of leadership failure. America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better. I, therefore, intend to oppose the effort to increase America's debt.

Barack Obama

Edited September 26, 2012 by midas

[yoshiwara]

OK I'm here to directly confront the gloomers.

Actually I'm quite sure some, like Nouriel Roubini, are in some sort of depressive state. He certainly puts me into one, though happily I can mentally mock his poor calls as medication.

Nouriel is not too gloomy. He recently forked out $5M for a Manhattan apartment. Doom and gloom is now his music hall act unfortunately.

Recently ? That was reported in

December 2010

-not so recent?

and then he said this

Roubini Already Regrets $5.5 Million Condo Purchase

NYU Professor Nouriel Roubini, on the other hand, is pretty confident that housing prices have nowhere to go but down.

$5.5 Million Condo Owner Nouriel Roubini is also in negative equity but isn’t considering walking away from his home

http://www.insidermo...-purchase-1649/

I'm sure he does. But he isn't selling so he must be optimistic.

[mccw]

Naam - you've said the big crash will come sooner or later but think it'll most likely be later. I'm genuinely interested , how you would position yourself if you thought I was going to happen before the end of the year? This for any one else also like to answer please;

Also any thoughts on what happens to interest rates and property values.

I'm personally of the opinion that inflation will be masked by statistics and governments will accept it; they can not raise interest rates with out bankrupting everyone,; they wish to inflate away the debts.

[yoshiwara]

Naam - you've said the big crash will come sooner or later but think it'll most likely be later. I'm genuinely interested , how you would position yourself if you thought I was going to happen before the end of the year? This for any one else also like to answer please;

Also any thoughts on what happens to interest rates and property values.

I'm personally of the opinion that inflation will be masked by statistics and governments will accept it; they can not raise interest rates with out bankrupting everyone,; they wish to inflate away the debts.

I don't think you are going to happen before the end of the year.

Gold bugs love to give themselves a little frisson with the 'oh what would you do if the world ended tomorrow, next week, next month, Halloween etc.

And then they throw a little swoon.

[midas]

Naam - you've said the big crash will come sooner or later but think it'll most likely be later. I'm genuinely interested , how you would position yourself if you thought I was going to happen before the end of the year? This for any one else also like to answer please;

Also any thoughts on what happens to interest rates and property values.

I'm personally of the opinion that inflation will be masked by statistics and governments will accept it; they can not raise interest rates with out bankrupting everyone,; they wish to inflate away the debts.

what is your definition of later?

Many believe if Israel attacks Iran it will be any time between now and March 2013.

I keep asking myself could there be a link? Do those in power consider the real financial situation is so bad they have nothing to lose by plunging the world into total chaos with China and Russia promising to join in and maybe even Pakistan . Six months isn't particularly ' later ' .

. It doesn't take much to realise the potential domino effect of this.

Israel-Iran conflict now the biggest danger to global financial markets this autumn

If Israel insists on making its attack on Iran then the price of crude will soar to levels beyond the peak of $147 a barrel in July 2008 that brought on the global financial crisis of that autumn after the failure of Lehman Brothers.

http://www.arabianmo...ets-this-autumn

Edited September 26, 2012 by midas

[yoshiwara]

Many believe if Israel attacks Iran it will be any time between now and March 2013.

I keep asking myself could there be a link? Do those in power consider the real financial situation is so bad they have nothing to lose by plunging the world into total chaos with China and Russia promising to join in and maybe even Pakistan .

Hello its Wednesday, so must be time for our mid-week conspiracy 'what if'.

When you ask yourself, do you give good odds on getting something sensible in reply?

[midas]

Many believe if Israel attacks Iran it will be any time between now and March 2013.

I keep asking myself could there be a link? Do those in power consider the real financial situation is so bad they have nothing to lose by plunging the world into total chaos with China and Russia promising to join in and maybe even Pakistan .

Hello its Wednesday, so must be time for our mid-week conspiracy 'what if'.

When you ask yourself, do you give good odds on getting something sensible in reply?

well at least I would get a more sensible reply by even asking the wall than asking you

Former Goldman Sachs Analyst Charles Nenner Joins Marc Faber and Gerald Celente in Predicting Major War

• “The next thing the government will do to distract the attention of the people on bad economic conditions is they’ll start a war somewhere.”
  

• “If the global economy doesn’t recover, usually people go to war.”
  

http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2011/03/former-goldman-sachs-analyst-charles-nenner-joins-marc-faber-and-gerald-celente-in-predicting-major-war.html

Edited September 26, 2012 by midas

[Naam]

Naam - you've said the big crash will come sooner or later but think it'll most likely be later. I'm genuinely interested , how you would position yourself if you thought I was going to happen before the end of the year? This for any one else also like to answer please;

Also any thoughts on what happens to interest rates and property values.

I'm personally of the opinion that inflation will be masked by statistics and governments will accept it; they can not raise interest rates with out bankrupting everyone,; they wish to inflate away the debts.

i think it was misleading when i mentioned "big crash" without elaborating. adding whatever information is available i have arrived at the conclusion that a sudden crash, as we experienced four years ago, is unlikely. but my conclusion is based on the assumption that the political clowns in power avoid a severe confrontation in and around the Arabian Gulf (aka Persian Gulf).

the crash i envisage is a prolonged one, stretching not only over years but will perhaps last a couple of decades or more. of course i have tried to position myself for a sudden crash which is worse than the 2008 one which was the igniting reason for my positioning. to be honest, in this respect i just yielded to the pushing of Mrs Naam who handles since decades our tangible assets and is a fan of real estate, gold and since 2007 agricultural land to which i added easily accessible cash in various currencies. unfortunately there is no "one size fits all advice" because any diversification where one asset group ensures a modest financial survival requires a substantial total asset value which can't be met by most people.

what i expect for the future is inflation without the possibility to beat it by investing at higher yields as was the case until recently. fact is that already today inflation (on a global scale) is higher than what any "safe" investment yields.

[yoshiwara]

Many believe if Israel attacks Iran it will be any time between now and March 2013.

I keep asking myself could there be a link? Do those in power consider the real financial situation is so bad they have nothing to lose by plunging the world into total chaos with China and Russia promising to join in and maybe even Pakistan .

Hello its Wednesday, so must be time for our mid-week conspiracy 'what if'.

When you ask yourself, do you give good odds on getting something sensible in reply?

well at least I would get a more sensible reply by even asking the wall than asking you

Well talking to the wall is some sort of progress over 'I keep asking myself', but maybe not.

[midas]

Many believe if Israel attacks Iran it will be any time between now and March 2013.

I keep asking myself could there be a link? Do those in power consider the real financial situation is so bad they have nothing to lose by plunging the world into total chaos with China and Russia promising to join in and maybe even Pakistan .

Hello its Wednesday, so must be time for our mid-week conspiracy 'what if'.

When you ask yourself, do you give good odds on getting something sensible in reply?

well at least I would get a more sensible reply by even asking the wall than asking you

Well talking to the wall is some sort of progress over 'I keep asking myself', but maybe not.

Yes because the Wall came up with a very good strategy………………………

it said whenever yoshiwara gives any form of " advice " in this forum,

in so many threads just do the direct opposite and you won't go wrong

Edited September 26, 2012 by midas

[mccw]

Naam - you've said the big crash will come sooner or later but think it'll most likely be later. I'm genuinely interested , how you would position yourself if you thought I was going to happen before the end of the year? This for any one else also like to answer please;

Also any thoughts on what happens to interest rates and property values.

I'm personally of the opinion that inflation will be masked by statistics and governments will accept it; they can not raise interest rates with out bankrupting everyone,; they wish to inflate away the debts.

what is your definition of later?

Many believe if Israel attacks Iran it will be any time between now and March 2013.

I keep asking myself could there be a link? Do those in power consider the real financial situation is so bad they have nothing to lose by plunging the world into total chaos with China and Russia promising to join in and maybe even Pakistan . Six months isn't particularly ' later ' .

. It doesn't take much to realise the potential domino effect of this.

Israel-Iran conflict now the biggest danger to global financial markets this autumn

If Israel insists on making its attack on Iran then the price of crude will soar to levels beyond the peak of $147 a barrel in July 2008 that brought on the global financial crisis of that autumn after the failure of Lehman Brothers.

http://www.arabianmo...ets-this-autumn

Not sure if you we're addressing me or not but ill throw my opinions in anyway, off topic and to all.

Basically I expect and hope for a best case scenario of continuing stagflation in the real economy, low interest rates and continuing volatility in the "markets". 10+ years like this.

But I also think there could be a major event leading to differing degrees of mayhem.

I'm taking on more debt to expand my property business since I don't think interest rates will be rising and think stagflation most likely. However I've also got about a house worths amount of money in PMs in case of major Shizer on the fan/ banking system collapse.

The event could happen any time from now due to a multitude of factors; so I'm ready with about 2years food for my family of 4, weapons, traps, fresh water sufficiency system, log burner, house defences such as iron bars and gates, razor wire and such.

Just thinking about adding a back up power system and/ or to buy some more gold. ( while still expanding the biz for the hoped for best case of continued stagflation. I'm not all about total doom, i just take the risks seriously).

When I talk gold silver it's physical. I have zero paper market "assets".

Really I think the biggest risk for anyone to take is stick head in the sand kinda attitude "government will take care of us", "nothing so terrible ever happen" and not prepare back up supply's. all the chat about investments up down clever clogs - if you haven't taken basic emergency scenario self reliance steps you are a complete idiot.

(You I mean the non taker of steps - not you in particular who's post I'm rambling this reply to)

Cheers

[mccw]

Cheers for the sensible response to the older post of mine.

The gambler in me thinks a punt on the oil price could be worth a shot if buying in bellow a ton. Could easily pop up to 125 or so without an actual war breaking out.

Opinions? What instrument would one use for this?

Price of pork too but no idea how to do this.

I'll probably not do either since I'm not much of a gambler but interested to see how my theories turn out all the same.

Cheers

[yoshiwara]

Cheers for the sensible response to the older post of mine.

The gambler in me thinks a punt on the oil price could be worth a shot if buying in bellow a ton. Could easily pop up to 125 or so without an actual war breaking out.

Opinions? What instrument would one use for this?

Price of pork too but no idea how to do this.

I'll probably not do either since I'm not much of a gambler but interested to see how my theories turn out all the same.

Cheers

If it is a theory you are not going to back then it is a theory you don't believe in too much. Just idle speculation.

[JSixpack]

Cheers for the sensible response to the older post of mine.

The gambler in me thinks a punt on the oil price could be worth a shot if buying in bellow a ton. Could easily pop up to 125 or so without an actual war breaking out.

Opinions? What instrument would one use for this?

Price of pork too but no idea how to do this.

I'll probably not do either since I'm not much of a gambler but interested to see how my theories turn out all the same.

Cheers

If it is a theory you are not going to back then it is a theory you don't believe in too much. Just idle speculation.

True. A lot of people around here just have too much time on their hands.

[mccw]

Cheers for the sensible response to the older post of mine.

The gambler in me thinks a punt on the oil price could be worth a shot if buying in bellow a ton. Could easily pop up to 125 or so without an actual war breaking out.

Opinions? What instrument would one use for this?

Price of pork too but no idea how to do this.

I'll probably not do either since I'm not much of a gambler but interested to see how my theories turn out all the same.

Cheers

If it is a theory you are not going to back then it is a theory you don't believe in too much. Just idle speculation.

True. A lot of people around here just have too much time on their hands.

I write down my theoretical trades and see how I'm doing. It's not long since I actually started to think about gambling for real and want to test myself. I'm not aware of all the codes for the various instruments to use so ask for advise is part of my research.

Jumping in to something with out good research first is not very smart.

(2 weeks now I'm no day off- I've renovated a house and rented 9 units- this is most busy time of year for me because students arriving. I post more now since I have spare 5-10 minutes here and there while waiting for prospective tenants and it passes the time. U and yoshi on the other hand I expect are the bored retired type to be commenting baiting nothings on others posts rather add anything useful or interesting

[Naam]

I write down my theoretical trades and see how I'm doing.

not a bad idea, not at all! it's like pilots doing their first hours of "flying" in a simulator.

[yoshiwara]

I write down my theoretical trades and see how I'm doing.

not a bad idea, not at all! it's like pilots doing their first hours of "flying" in a simulator.

Many FX online services offer a simulator facility and both yahoo, google, FT etc allow one to set up a 'fake' portfolio.

But there is a world of difference asking 'what if' and actually pressing a button to make an actual trade.

Hey! I made a fortune on my 'parallel' portfolio! does not quite cut it

[midas]

Not sure if you we're addressing me or not but ill throw my opinions in anyway, off topic and to all.

Basically I expect and hope for a best case scenario of continuing stagflation in the real economy, low interest rates and continuing volatility in the "markets". 10+ years like this.

But I also think there could be a major event leading to differing degrees of mayhem.

I'm taking on more debt to expand my property business since I don't think interest rates will be rising and think stagflation most likely. However I've also got about a house worths amount of money in PMs in case of major Shizer on the fan/ banking system collapse.

The event could happen any time from now due to a multitude of factors; so I'm ready with about 2years food for my family of 4, weapons, traps, fresh water sufficiency system, log burner, house defences such as iron bars and gates, razor wire and such.

Just thinking about adding a back up power system and/ or to buy some more gold. ( while still expanding the biz for the hoped for best case of continued stagflation. I'm not all about total doom, i just take the risks seriously).

When I talk gold silver it's physical. I have zero paper market "assets".

Really I think the biggest risk for anyone to take is stick head in the sand kinda attitude "government will take care of us", "nothing so terrible ever happen" and not prepare back up supply's. all the chat about investments up down clever clogs - if you haven't taken basic emergency scenario self reliance steps you are a complete idiot.

(You I mean the non taker of steps - not you in particular who's post I'm rambling this reply to)

Cheers

Its interesting what you say about stagflation. do you think this because of what has

happened in Japan for the last 20 years?

Forgetting about the risk of world War and concentrating purely on economics, I still believe

it's too much to expect things to play out in the rest of the world for the next 10

years as they have done in Japan over the past 20.

Through their crisis Japan has had huge advantages such as being

able to sell bonds to its own citizens because they have

thea good savings rate plus Japan exported more than they imported.

Eurozone countries on the other hand have huge budget deficits and look at

USA with more than $1 trillion ? And to make matters worse, there it is citizens have

astonishingly low savings rates.

And nobody in particular the politicians can ever say exactly where are the jobs

going to come from in Europe and USA in the future? In fact as factories

in China even want to cut costs through robotics, USA and Europe have an even more compelling

case to do so in its manufacturing plants.

With regards to your comments about the government taking care of everyone I always remember this infamous quote

“The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help.”

― Ronald Reagan

Edited September 27, 2012 by midas

[Naam]

I write down my theoretical trades and see how I'm doing.

not a bad idea, not at all! it's like pilots doing their first hours of "flying" in a simulator.

Many FX online services offer a simulator facility and both yahoo, google, FT etc allow one to set up a 'fake' portfolio.

But there is a world of difference asking 'what if' and actually pressing a button to make an actual trade.

Hey! I made a fortune on my 'parallel' portfolio! does not quite cut it

there's a German proverb "a master doesn't fall from the sky, he started as an apprentice!"

[mccw]

Not sure if you we're addressing me or not but ill throw my opinions in anyway, off topic and to all.

Basically I expect and hope for a best case scenario of continuing stagflation in the real economy, low interest rates and continuing volatility in the "markets". 10+ years like this.

But I also think there could be a major event leading to differing degrees of mayhem.

I'm taking on more debt to expand my property business since I don't think interest rates will be rising and think stagflation most likely. However I've also got about a house worths amount of money in PMs in case of major Shizer on the fan/ banking system collapse.

The event could happen any time from now due to a multitude of factors; so I'm ready with about 2years food for my family of 4, weapons, traps, fresh water sufficiency system, log burner, house defences such as iron bars and gates, razor wire and such.

Just thinking about adding a back up power system and/ or to buy some more gold. ( while still expanding the biz for the hoped for best case of continued stagflation. I'm not all about total doom, i just take the risks seriously).

When I talk gold silver it's physical. I have zero paper market "assets".

Really I think the biggest risk for anyone to take is stick head in the sand kinda attitude "government will take care of us", "nothing so terrible ever happen" and not prepare back up supply's. all the chat about investments up down clever clogs - if you haven't taken basic emergency scenario self reliance steps you are a complete idiot.

(You I mean the non taker of steps - not you in particular who's post I'm rambling this reply to)

Cheers

Its interesting what you say about stagflation. do you think this because of what has

happened in Japan for the last 20 years?

Forgetting about the risk of world War and concentrating purely on economics, I still believe

it's too much to expect things to play out in the rest of the world for the next 10

years as they have done in Japan over the past 20.

Through their crisis Japan has had huge advantages such as being

able to sell bonds to its own citizens because they have

thea good savings rate plus Japan exported more than they imported.

Eurozone countries on the other hand have huge budget deficits and look at

USA with more than $1 trillion ? And to make matters worse, there it is citizens have

astonishingly low savings rates.

And nobody in particular the politicians can ever say exactly where are the jobs

going to come from in Europe and USA in the future? In fact as factories

in China even want to cut costs through robotics, USA and Europe have an even more compelling

case to do so in its manufacturing plants.

With regards to your comments about the government taking care of everyone I always remember this infamous quote

“The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help.”

― Ronald Reagan

I say stagflation as a "best case" assuming it can be held together by central banks buying their own governments bonds, continued bailouts of banks and regions where needed. Not much of this comes through to the real economy, indeed it most likely restrains or shrinks it, but it does stop it collapsing completely. The dilution of currency coupled with increased population and extreme weather + peak oil etc resources leads to mid to long term inflating prices despite continued recession and mass unemployment. I don't see any recovery at all. Maybe big sell offs and buys in the paper markets but real economy bumps along or gradually worsens as everyone gets poorer.

What do you think best case and/ or most likely scenario is?

Big deflationary crash unavoidable? With QE to infinity I'd think hyperinflation more of a risk.

[cloudhopper]

Big deflationary crash unavoidable? With QE to infinity I'd think hyperinflation more of a risk.

You might find this interesting -

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-09-27/guest-post-why-qe-wont-create-inflation-quite-expected

[sunjunkie56]

So, that's it. I've now reached the point where I am ready to join up.

Bring on the revolution. I have had enough of

Politicians - who were given the trust and responsibility to represent and protect us, paying themselves millions in the process.

Bankers - who accepted our money and gamboled it away, paying themselves billions in the process.

I have been through

- the denial phase (surely it will be over soon)

- the logical phase (move money around looking for somewhere safe)

- jesus phase (is it really now this bad?)

- acceptance phase (yes is dam_n well is)

so now I am in the Kill The Responsible phase.

Really, I am very angry about this.

These governments have presided over populations who they know are not always going to make the right personal decisions. That is why we have laws and politicians to make them, codes of conduct, FSA's to prevent your average George, Joe or John from himself. So what happened? They have FAILED.

Now I am one of the most passive people I know. But I am now very angry that my trust has been proven to be misplaced, and I have been let down.

If I now feel this way, then, once the immensity of what is about to hit the UK in particular, including all the 1,000,000 ex pat pensioners and their families, where will it lead to? The Icelandic government is besieged, in Greece there have been riots. The Brits can take a lot, but once they get riled then the fighting becomes very bitter.

Sent from my HTC Desire HD A9191 using Thaivisa Connect App

[midas]

Not sure if you we're addressing me or not but ill throw my opinions in anyway, off topic and to all.

Basically I expect and hope for a best case scenario of continuing stagflation in the real economy, low interest rates and continuing volatility in the "markets". 10+ years like this.

But I also think there could be a major event leading to differing degrees of mayhem.

I'm taking on more debt to expand my property business since I don't think interest rates will be rising and think stagflation most likely. However I've also got about a house worths amount of money in PMs in case of major Shizer on the fan/ banking system collapse.

The event could happen any time from now due to a multitude of factors; so I'm ready with about 2years food for my family of 4, weapons, traps, fresh water sufficiency system, log burner, house defences such as iron bars and gates, razor wire and such.

Just thinking about adding a back up power system and/ or to buy some more gold. ( while still expanding the biz for the hoped for best case of continued stagflation. I'm not all about total doom, i just take the risks seriously).

When I talk gold silver it's physical. I have zero paper market "assets".

Really I think the biggest risk for anyone to take is stick head in the sand kinda attitude "government will take care of us", "nothing so terrible ever happen" and not prepare back up supply's. all the chat about investments up down clever clogs - if you haven't taken basic emergency scenario self reliance steps you are a complete idiot.

(You I mean the non taker of steps - not you in particular who's post I'm rambling this reply to)

Cheers

Its interesting what you say about stagflation. do you think this because of what has

happened in Japan for the last 20 years?

Forgetting about the risk of world War and concentrating purely on economics, I still believe

it's too much to expect things to play out in the rest of the world for the next 10

years as they have done in Japan over the past 20.

Through their crisis Japan has had huge advantages such as being

able to sell bonds to its own citizens because they have

thea good savings rate plus Japan exported more than they imported.

Eurozone countries on the other hand have huge budget deficits and look at

USA with more than $1 trillion ? And to make matters worse, there it is citizens have

astonishingly low savings rates.

And nobody in particular the politicians can ever say exactly where are the jobs

going to come from in Europe and USA in the future? In fact as factories

in China even want to cut costs through robotics, USA and Europe have an even more compelling

case to do so in its manufacturing plants.

With regards to your comments about the government taking care of everyone I always remember this infamous quote

"The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help."

― Ronald Reagan

I say stagflation as a "best case" assuming it can be held together by central banks buying their own governments bonds, continued bailouts of banks and regions where needed. Not much of this comes through to the real economy, indeed it most likely restrains or shrinks it, but it does stop it collapsing completely. The dilution of currency coupled with increased population and extreme weather + peak oil etc resources leads to mid to long term inflating prices despite continued recession and mass unemployment. I don't see any recovery at all. Maybe big sell offs and buys in the paper markets but real economy bumps along or gradually worsens as everyone gets poorer.

What do you think best case and/ or most likely scenario is?

Big deflationary crash unavoidable? With QE to infinity I'd think hyperinflation more of a risk.

excluding the possibility of world War three from the equation (then all bets are off !), I don't believe in either extreme

i.e.a deflationary crash or hyperinflation. I expect serious inflation to continue on commodities such as oil which

will negatively affect food prices. Because surely if they keep printing money to infinity whether it's then

buried in the ground or not (as referred to in the zero hedge article cloudhopper posted ) the oil cartel will

still consider they are losing out by continually depreciating dollarand will want to keep increasing their prices to compensate for this ?

but equally I see serious deflationary forces continuing to slowly and agonisingly

drive down some other asset values such as real estate until the loan to value ratios

are at a more realistic level and don't forget real incomes are falling now so surely the

amount the people can borrow will keep being adjusted downwards?

and at some point I can't see how equities even can stop

a slow steady decline as happened in Japan after 1990

Edited September 28, 2012 by midas

[cloudhopper]

Consumption simply cannot exceed production in the long term. A temporary excess in consumption created through credit that was not used to finance productivity can only and will only result in a period during which consumption is less than production. Regardless of the monetary system in use and attempts to manipulate its nominal value.

[yoshiwara]

Consumption simply cannot exceed production in the long term. A temporary excess in consumption created through credit that was not used to finance productivity can only and will only result in a period during which consumption is less than production. Regardless of the monetary system in use and attempts to manipulate its nominal value.

Too vague.

[midas]

And nobody in particular the politicians can ever say exactly where are the jobs

going to come from in Europe and USA in the future? In fact as factories

in China even want to cut costs through robotics, USA and Europe have an even more compelling

case to do so in its manufacturing plants.

Managing the Transition to a Workerless Society

"There are 3 and a half million truck drivers and they will be impacted by this technology. .... We are going to transition into an economy that is very productive and just does not need a lot of human workers. Managing that transition is going to be the greatest challenge that our society faces" says McAfee.

"If these predictions are accurate, that gap is not going to close. The problem is I do not think these predictions are accurate. In particular, I think my projection is way too optimistic. ... Because when I look around I think we ain't seen nothing yet when it comes to technology."

http://globaleconomi...win-apples.html

Edited September 28, 2012 by midas

[churchill]

Not sure if this has been posted previously .. but an interesting presentation ...

'In this video Chris Martenson, economic analyst at http://chrismartenson.comand author of 'The Crash Course', explains why he thinks that the coming 20 years are going to look completely unlike the last 20 years. In his presentation he focuses on the so-called three "Es": Economy, Energy and Environment. He argues that at this point in time it is no longer possible to view either one of those topics separately from one another.'

[Naam]

Managing the Transition to a Workerless Society

"There are 3 and a half million truck drivers and they will be impacted by this technology. .... We are going to transition into an economy that is very productive and just does not need a lot of human workers. Managing that transition is going to be the greatest challenge that our society faces" says McAfee.

"If these predictions are accurate, that gap is not going to close. The problem is I do not think these predictions are accurate. In particular, I think my projection is way too optimistic. ... Because when I look around I think we ain't seen nothing yet when it comes to technology."

http://globaleconomi...win-apples.html

The study paper -- 'Skills Gaps in the Indian Logistics Sector' -- estimates that currently India has only some 3 million truck drivers for medium and heavy commercial vehicles. numbers as of 2007.

http://www.rediff.co.../17truckers.htm

Commercial Drivers USA 4,801,733

http://ai.fmcsa.dot....ct=GenStats.asp

Edited September 29, 2012 by Naam