Financial Crisis

[midas]

In Hong Kong we just love to go Shop-Ping.

yes but Hong Kong isn't struggling to keep up appearances for the sake of the so-called “ world's reserve currency “and Hong Kong doesn't rely on 70% of its GDP coming from this source ?

[SheungWan]

In Hong Kong we just love to go Shop-Ping.

yes but Hong Kong isn't struggling to keep up appearances for the sake of the so-called “ world's reserve currency “and Hong Kong doesn't rely on 70% of its GDP coming from this source ?

The only one struggling would probably be you if you wanted to rent one of my apartments. Sorry, not accepting bitcoins, gold coins or any of the other junk in your Thailand condo safe.

Edited January 21, 2014 by SheungWan

[MJP]

In Hong Kong we just love to go Shop-Ping.

You don't know an American, Michael Hampton in HK by any chance?

[SheungWan]

In Hong Kong we just love to go Shop-Ping.

You don't know an American, Michael Hampton in HK by any chance?

sorry, no.

[mccw]

"""

For the first time since 1999 oil demand in the US overtook that of China, the International Energy Agency (IEA) says. The US shale revolution has largely contributed, and analysts agree higher fuel consumption means the American economy is recovering.

According the IEA US oil demand grew by 390,000 barrels a day, showing a 2 percent increase after years of decline. In contrast, Chinese demand growth was the weakest in 6 years having added only 295,000 barrels per day.

Higher oil demand in the US reflects stronger activity by both American companies and people, as fuels such as gasoline and diesel are a primary source of energy.

The boost in US consumption came as a surprise to many analysts. Many who predicted a decline in demand in 2014 are now forecasting a second consecutive year of growth.

"""

Excerpt from RT app

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

[midas]

""" For the first time since 1999 oil demand in the US overtook that of China, the International Energy Agency (IEA) says. The US shale revolution has largely contributed, and analysts agree higher fuel consumption means the American economy is recovering. According the IEA US oil demand grew by 390,000 barrels a day, showing a 2 percent increase after years of decline. In contrast, Chinese demand growth was the weakest in 6 years having added only 295,000 barrels per day. Higher oil demand in the US reflects stronger activity by both American companies and people, as fuels such as gasoline and diesel are a primary source of energy. The boost in US consumption came as a surprise to many analysts. Many who predicted a decline in demand in 2014 are now forecasting a second consecutive year of growth. """ Excerpt from RT app Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

mccw didn't this particularly bullish account of the oil market and the US economy stick out a bit like a sore thumb to you compared to so many other economic indicators that are nowhere near as upbeat? It did to me.It's like these days we have to have check out every story to see if there is some kind of hidden agenda behind the scenes.

Coincidentally zerohedge also covered this story last night as well after your post.

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2014-01-21/oil-set-rocket#comment-4354583

It's also worth reading some of the comments after the article itself

it may be not so much that , the International Energy Agency (IEA) deliberately tells " porkies " but it seems some don't believe IEA has a particularly good track record regarding analysis?

Will the International Energy Agency's oil forecast be wrong again?

the agency doesn't seem to remember what it said in its last forecast.

http://www.resilience.org/stories/2013-05-19/will-the-international-ener...

Edited January 22, 2014 by midas

[midas]

US Commercial Real Estate: The Present Position and Future Prospects

The fundamentals of demographics, stagnant household income and an overbuilt retail sector eroded by eCommerce support only one conclusion: commercial real estate in the U.S. will implode as retail sales and profits weaken.

Sears is widely expected to lose one billion dollars in 2014. J.C. Penney meanwhile is currently reporting ttm losses of -$7.32 per share.

One or both of these chains will be in bankruptcy by 2015 even if the current “recovery” continues. And outright liquidation of one or both companies is at least as likely as reorganization. There is little reason to believe either of these companies would be more viable following mere debt reduction.

http://www.oftwominds.com/blogjan14/CRE1-14.html

[MJP]

US Commercial Real Estate: The Present Position and Future Prospects

The fundamentals of demographics, stagnant household income and an overbuilt retail sector eroded by eCommerce support only one conclusion: commercial real estate in the U.S. will implode as retail sales and profits weaken.

Sears is widely expected to lose one billion dollars in 2014. J.C. Penney meanwhile is currently reporting ttm losses of -$7.32 per share.

One or both of these chains will be in bankruptcy by 2015 even if the current “recovery” continues. And outright liquidation of one or both companies is at least as likely as reorganization. There is little reason to believe either of these companies would be more viable following mere debt reduction.

http://www.oftwominds.com/blogjan14/CRE1-14.html

One word . . . Amazon.

The other year me and bunch of other blokes built the first ever combined John Lewis/Waitrose development in the UK. At the time, the Chairman of that group publicly stated that Amazon would eventually finish them. Now this is the model of a decent firm in a decent society, John Lewis that is. The employees own the firm. Working conditions are excellent, employment contracts fair and the stores and products first class.

But they can't compete with online shopping.

The costs are too great. Business rates for one, good employee benefits another, the fact they actually pay tax another.

By contrast Amazon is a warehouse that 'employs' people on zero hour contracts, thrashes them to near death when they do get some hours, has a small floor area to turnover and seems to not bother with corporation tax in Blighty. HMRC are terrified of them and others like them.

[midas]

US Commercial Real Estate: The Present Position and Future Prospects

The fundamentals of demographics, stagnant household income and an overbuilt retail sector eroded by eCommerce support only one conclusion: commercial real estate in the U.S. will implode as retail sales and profits weaken.

Sears is widely expected to lose one billion dollars in 2014. J.C. Penney meanwhile is currently reporting ttm losses of -$7.32 per share.

One or both of these chains will be in bankruptcy by 2015 even if the current “recovery” continues. And outright liquidation of one or both companies is at least as likely as reorganization. There is little reason to believe either of these companies would be more viable following mere debt reduction.

http://www.oftwominds.com/blogjan14/CRE1-14.html

One word . . . Amazon.

The other year me and bunch of other blokes built the first ever combined John Lewis/Waitrose development in the UK. At the time, the Chairman of that group publicly stated that Amazon would eventually finish them. Now this is the model of a decent firm in a decent society, John Lewis that is. The employees own the firm. Working conditions are excellent, employment contracts fair and the stores and products first class.

But they can't compete with online shopping.

The costs are too great. Business rates for one, good employee benefits another, the fact they actually pay tax another.

By contrast Amazon is a warehouse that 'employs' people on zero hour contracts, thrashes them to near death when they do get some hours, has a small floor area to turnover and seems to not bother with corporation tax in Blighty. HMRC are terrified of them and others like them.

It is a nightmare and nothing less than slave labour in 2014.

http://www.channel4.com/news/anger-at-amazon-working-conditions

[MJP]

US Commercial Real Estate: The Present Position and Future Prospects

The fundamentals of demographics, stagnant household income and an overbuilt retail sector eroded by eCommerce support only one conclusion: commercial real estate in the U.S. will implode as retail sales and profits weaken.

Sears is widely expected to lose one billion dollars in 2014. J.C. Penney meanwhile is currently reporting ttm losses of -$7.32 per share.

One or both of these chains will be in bankruptcy by 2015 even if the current “recovery” continues. And outright liquidation of one or both companies is at least as likely as reorganization. There is little reason to believe either of these companies would be more viable following mere debt reduction.

http://www.oftwominds.com/blogjan14/CRE1-14.html

One word . . . Amazon.

The other year me and bunch of other blokes built the first ever combined John Lewis/Waitrose development in the UK. At the time, the Chairman of that group publicly stated that Amazon would eventually finish them. Now this is the model of a decent firm in a decent society, John Lewis that is. The employees own the firm. Working conditions are excellent, employment contracts fair and the stores and products first class.

But they can't compete with online shopping.

The costs are too great. Business rates for one, good employee benefits another, the fact they actually pay tax another.

By contrast Amazon is a warehouse that 'employs' people on zero hour contracts, thrashes them to near death when they do get some hours, has a small floor area to turnover and seems to not bother with corporation tax in Blighty. HMRC are terrified of them and others like them.

It is a nightmare and nothing less than slave labour in 2014.

http://www.channel4.com/news/anger-at-amazon-working-conditions

Keeps the unemployment statistic down, good for the government.

Yes, it's a nightmare. Left unchecked, most circumstances end up at extremes and although I hate government intervention unless you have some rules to protect your citizens from various depredations then eventually it all falls apart.

Edited January 22, 2014 by MJP

[midas]

US Commercial Real Estate: The Present Position and Future Prospects

http://www.oftwominds.com/blogjan14/CRE1-14.html

One word . . . Amazon.

The other year me and bunch of other blokes built the first ever combined John Lewis/Waitrose development in the UK. At the time, the Chairman of that group publicly stated that Amazon would eventually finish them. Now this is the model of a decent firm in a decent society, John Lewis that is. The employees own the firm. Working conditions are excellent, employment contracts fair and the stores and products first class.

But they can't compete with online shopping.

The costs are too great. Business rates for one, good employee benefits another, the fact they actually pay tax another.

By contrast Amazon is a warehouse that 'employs' people on zero hour contracts, thrashes them to near death when they do get some hours, has a small floor area to turnover and seems to not bother with corporation tax in Blighty. HMRC are terrified of them and others like them.

It is a nightmare and nothing less than slave labour in 2014.

http://www.channel4.com/news/anger-at-amazon-working-conditions

Keeps the unemployment statistic down, good for the government.

Yes, it's a nightmare. Left unchecked, most circumstances end up at extremes and although I hate government intervention unless you have some rules to protect your citizens from various depredations then eventually it all falls apart.

My god, it's almost surreal how lucky I was for the luxury that my " work " was so much fun and I couldn't wait to get out of bed in the morning to get back to it

Edited January 22, 2014 by midas

[MJP]

^^ Wish I could say the same. It's a when needs must is digging and refilling holes. Luckily it pays okay but I can't say I can't wait to get out of bed for it.

Any career advice welcome.

[midas]

^^ Wish I could say the same. It's a when needs must is digging and refilling holes. Luckily it pays okay but I can't say I can't wait to get out of bed for it.

Any career advice welcome.

Because I can honestly say I probably had as much enthusiasm and passionate fun for what i was doing then as for example a young Thai or South Korean person today who can't wait to get back to the video game parlour.

Life is too short not do something you absolutely love

[MJP]

^^ Wish I could say the same. It's a when needs must is digging and refilling holes. Luckily it pays okay but I can't say I can't wait to get out of bed for it.

Any career advice welcome.

Because I can honestly say I probably had as much enthusiasm and passionate fun for what i was doing then as for example a young Thai or South Korean person today who can't wait to get back to the video game parlour.

Life is too short not do something you absolutely love

Life's also too short to do something you absolutely hate. Going to make 2015 my last year in the muck cleaning business.

Dunno after that, but the misery has to come to an end.

[midas]

^^ Wish I could say the same. It's a when needs must is digging and refilling holes. Luckily it pays okay but I can't say I can't wait to get out of bed for it.

Any career advice welcome.

Because I can honestly say I probably had as much enthusiasm and passionate fun for what i was doing then as for example a young Thai or South Korean person today who can't wait to get back to the video game parlour.

Life is too short not do something you absolutely love

Life's also too short to do something you absolutely hate. Going to make 2015 my last year in the muck cleaning business.

Dunno after that, but the misery has to come to an end.

oh no !

But what happened to the old saying “ where there's muck, there's money” ?

But at least you have not had the physical and mental stress that these poor young buggers at Amazon are faced with working for a pittance?

And what about the unemployed cleaning up Fukushima and still ending up in debt

Edited January 22, 2014 by midas

[MJP]

^^ It's pretty grim, believe me.

[midas]

^^ It's pretty grim, believe me.

MJP

it would be interesting to hear your views on this new article today?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-22/britains-recovery-too-good-be-true

(Recommend you also read some of the comments. Someone named Lord Peter Pipsqueak wrote a comment in about post number 10 after the article claiming “This recovery is a total mirage based on the housing market which in the case of the UK economy is the tail wagging the dog “ )

[MJP]

^^ It's pretty grim, believe me.

MJP

it would be interesting to hear your views on this new article today?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-22/britains-recovery-too-good-be-true

(Recommend you also read some of the comments. Someone named Lord Peter Pipsqueak wrote a comment in about post number 10 after the article claiming “This recovery is a total mirage based on the housing market which in the case of the UK economy is the tail wagging the dog “ )

Watching the vid. Yes, I would. Definitely.

Edited January 22, 2014 by MJP

[SheungWan]

^^ It's pretty grim, believe me.

MJP

it would be interesting to hear your views on this new article today?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-22/britains-recovery-too-good-be-true

(Recommend you also read some of the comments. Someone named Lord Peter Pipsqueak wrote a comment in about post number 10 after the article claiming “This recovery is a total mirage based on the housing market which in the case of the UK economy is the tail wagging the dog “ )

Watching the vid. Yes, I would. Definitely.

She must be the tail. Where's the dog?

Edited January 22, 2014 by SheungWan

[mccw]

This from RT app

Perhaps a truer off public indicator:

As the White House proclaims a recovery is occurring, and the stock market has a head of steam, millions of Americans and their dependents are being left out of the recovery, according to a set of economic indicators.

Perhaps the most worrying yet least reported aspect of the so-called US recovery involves the national labor picture. Although the official US unemployment rate is 6.7 percent, this figure obscures the reality, according to an influential Wall Street adviser.

In a leaked memo to clients, David John Marotta calculates the actual unemployment rate of Americans out of work at an astronomic 37.2 percent, as opposed to the 6.7 percent claimed by the Federal Reserve.

The unemployment rate only describes people who are currently working or looking for work, he said.

Unemployment in its truest definition, meaning the portion of people who do not have any job, is 37.2 percent. This number obviously includes some people who are not or never plan to seek employment. But it does describe how many people are not able to, do not want to or cannot find a way to work, he and colleague Megan Russell reveal in their client report, which was leaked to the Washington Examiner.

Contrary to expectations, a drop in the unemployment rate, Marotta argues, is presently a sign that the unemployed are simply dropping out of the job market.

""" For the first time since 1999 oil demand in the US overtook that of China, the International Energy Agency (IEA) says. The US shale revolution has largely contributed, and analysts agree higher fuel consumption means the American economy is recovering. According the IEA US oil demand grew by 390,000 barrels a day, showing a 2 percent increase after years of decline. In contrast, Chinese demand growth was the weakest in 6 years having added only 295,000 barrels per day. Higher oil demand in the US reflects stronger activity by both American companies and people, as fuels such as gasoline and diesel are a primary source of energy. The boost in US consumption came as a surprise to many analysts. Many who predicted a decline in demand in 2014 are now forecasting a second consecutive year of growth. """ Excerpt from RT app Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

mccw didn't this particularly bullish account of the oil market and the US economy stick out a bit like a sore thumb to you compared to so many other economic indicators that are nowhere near as upbeat? It did to me.It's like these days we have to have check out every story to see if there is some kind of hidden agenda behind the scenes.

Coincidentally zerohedge also covered this story last night as well after your post.

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2014-01-21/oil-set-rocket#comment-4354583

It's also worth reading some of the comments after the article itself

it may be not so much that , the International Energy Agency (IEA) deliberately tells " porkies " but it seems some don't believe IEA has a particularly good track record regarding analysis?

Will the International Energy Agency's oil forecast be wrong again?

the agency doesn't seem to remember what it said in its last forecast.

http://www.resilience.org/stories/2013-05-19/will-the-international-ener...

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

[midas]

This from RT app

Perhaps a truer off public indicator:

As the White House proclaims a recovery is occurring, and the stock market has a head of steam, millions of Americans and their dependents are being left out of the recovery, according to a set of economic indicators.

Perhaps the most worrying yet least reported aspect of the so-called US recovery involves the national labor picture. Although the official US unemployment rate is 6.7 percent, this figure obscures the reality, according to an influential Wall Street adviser.

In a leaked memo to clients, David John Marotta calculates the actual unemployment rate of Americans out of work at an astronomic 37.2 percent, as opposed to the 6.7 percent claimed by the Federal Reserve.

The unemployment rate only describes people who are currently working or looking for work, he said.

Unemployment in its truest definition, meaning the portion of people who do not have any job, is 37.2 percent. This number obviously includes some people who are not or never plan to seek employment. But it does describe how many people are not able to, do not want to or cannot find a way to work, he and colleague Megan Russell reveal in their client report, which was leaked to the Washington Examiner.

Contrary to expectations, a drop in the unemployment rate, Marotta argues, is presently a sign that the unemployed are simply dropping out of the job market.

""" For the first time since 1999 oil demand in the US overtook that of China, the International Energy Agency (IEA) says. The US shale revolution has largely contributed, and analysts agree higher fuel consumption means the American economy is recovering. According the IEA US oil demand grew by 390,000 barrels a day, showing a 2 percent increase after years of decline. In contrast, Chinese demand growth was the weakest in 6 years having added only 295,000 barrels per day. Higher oil demand in the US reflects stronger activity by both American companies and people, as fuels such as gasoline and diesel are a primary source of energy. The boost in US consumption came as a surprise to many analysts. Many who predicted a decline in demand in 2014 are now forecasting a second consecutive year of growth. """ Excerpt from RT app Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

mccw didn't this particularly bullish account of the oil market and the US economy stick out a bit like a sore thumb to you compared to so many other economic indicators that are nowhere near as upbeat? It did to me.It's like these days we have to have check out every story to see if there is some kind of hidden agenda behind the scenes.

Coincidentally zerohedge also covered this story last night as well after your post.

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2014-01-21/oil-set-rocket#comment-4354583

It's also worth reading some of the comments after the article itself

it may be not so much that , the International Energy Agency (IEA) deliberately tells " porkies " but it seems some don't believe IEA has a particularly good track record regarding analysis?

Will the International Energy Agency's oil forecast be wrong again?

the agency doesn't seem to remember what it said in its last forecast.

http://www.resilience.org/stories/2013-05-19/will-the-international-ener...

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

the no spin zone

[MJP]

When the UK stops borrowing, runs a current account in the black with interest rates at more normal levels, has a healthy and sustainable mortgage market based on stable employment and income and maintains steady growth through more exports, then we'll know all is well.

Until then . . .

[midas]

hey SheungWan

this is the antithesis of your continual end of the world and doom gloom name calling

Scaremongering that deflation would be bad for the ordinary person is the biggest con out there

In order to justify our current monetary and fiscal policies, in which governments refuse to reign in runaway deficits while central banks furiously expand the money supply, economists must convince us that inflation, which results in rising prices, is vital for economic growth.

Simultaneously they make the case that falling prices are bad. This is a difficult proposition to make because most people have long suspected that inflation is a sign of economic distress and that high prices qualify as a problem not a solution. But the absurdity of the position has not stopped our top economists, and their acolytes in the media, from making the case.

http://www.europac.net/commentaries/deflation_menace

[midas]

this just has to be you SheungWan .......................

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/expat-banker-who-mocked-stench-of-poor-on-public-transport-faces-fury-of-singapore-9077127.html

Edited January 23, 2014 by midas

[SheungWan]

this just has to be you SheungWan .......................

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/expat-banker-who-mocked-stench-of-poor-on-public-transport-faces-fury-of-singapore-9077127.html

Out of touch as usual. Haven't owned a car this century. Love to use public transport and certainly can recommend the Singapore MRT as well as the Hong Kong MTR. The guy involved in the incident a bozo.

[mccw]

This from Sky app.

That'd a celebration?! And the target is only 40% ; no wonder the UK is said to "need" immigration with such low standards of eduction on top of the dismal work ethic

"""

A quarter of a million fewer children have been lifted out of failing secondary school in a result the Education Secretary has claimed a victory for "hard-working teachers".

According to figures in new performance tables, the number of schools that do not meet the Government's target of 40% getting five GCSEs, including English and maths, at grade C or higher has more than halved since 2010.

However, there are still 154 schools in the country, which educate around 117,000 children in total, are not hitting this benchmark. In 2010 244,000 children were being taught in failing schools.

Michael Gove, the Education Secretary, said that the figures were "a credit to the professionalism and hard work of teachers".

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

[midas]

Global Economy Risks Jobless Recovery

GENEVA — A new report finds global unemployment rates are continuing to rise, despite modest growth in the world economy. The International Labor Organization’s just-issued 2014 Global Employment Trends report says young people are particularly disadvantaged, with youth unemployment double the overall global unemployment rate.

ILO Director-General Guy Ryder says worse is to come. He says current trends indicate the number of unemployed will increase in coming years and is expected to reach 215 million by 2018.

http://www.voanews.com/content/ilo-weak-global-recovery-has-curtailed-job-growth/1833672.html

When the ILO’s spokesman was interviewed on BBC world business at lunchtime, he said there is ” too much money going into the financial markets and not enough going into real investments which create jobs “

voilà. It's just one great big Ponzi casino

a similar view from Charles Smith

The Fed's Solution to Income Stagnation: Make Everyone a Speculator

The elimination of low-risk interest income in favor of risky speculative credit/asset bubbles has led to a monumental misallocation of capital and the institutionalization of perverse and highly corrosive incentives.

http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2014/01/the-feds-solution-to-income-stagnation.html

[MJP]

Global Economy Risks Jobless Recovery

GENEVA — A new report finds global unemployment rates are continuing to rise, despite modest growth in the world economy. The International Labor Organization’s just-issued 2014 Global Employment Trends report says young people are particularly disadvantaged, with youth unemployment double the overall global unemployment rate.

ILO Director-General Guy Ryder says worse is to come. He says current trends indicate the number of unemployed will increase in coming years and is expected to reach 215 million by 2018.

http://www.voanews.com/content/ilo-weak-global-recovery-has-curtailed-job-growth/1833672.html

When the ILO’s spokesman was interviewed on BBC world business at lunchtime, he said there is ” too much money going into the financial markets and not enough going into real investments which create jobs “

voilà. It's just one great big Ponzi casino

a similar view from Charles Smith

The Fed's Solution to Income Stagnation: Make Everyone a Speculator

The elimination of low-risk interest income in favor of risky speculative credit/asset bubbles has led to a monumental misallocation of capital and the institutionalization of perverse and highly corrosive incentives.

http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2014/01/the-feds-solution-to-income-stagnation.html

Half the World's unemployed. Even when I make myself unemployed I'm not registered as unemployed.

I like periods of self-imposed unemployment and exile.

I beats working.

[midas]

a similar view from Charles Smith

The Fed's Solution to Income Stagnation: Make Everyone a Speculator

The elimination of low-risk interest income in favor of risky speculative credit/asset bubbles has led to a monumental misallocation of capital and the institutionalization of perverse and highly corrosive incentives.

http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2014/01/the-feds-solution-to-income-stagnation.html

Half the World's unemployed. Even when I make myself unemployed I'm not registered as unemployed.

I like periods of self-imposed unemployment and exile.

I beats working.

Talking about work ………… You remember how other day we were discussing the poor working conditions at Amazon UK?

But they may not seem so bad after all , compared to this ……………………..?

Centre of planning and Economic Research in Greece has proposed a controversial measure in order to deal with the problem of increasing unemployment in the country.

The measure includes unpaid work for the young and unemployed up to 24 years old, so that companies would have a strong motive to hire young employees. Practically, what is proposed is the abolition of the basic salary for a year

http://greece.greekreporter.com/2014/01/24/controversial-proposal-for-tackling-unemployment/

[MJP]

^^ The old formula has reached its terminus. Need to find a new formula. To achieve this it may take revolution, but change it must.

Oxfam: 85 people 'own half of global wealth'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25810277