Thailand Ignored Disaster Warning

[george]

Thailand ignored disaster warning

BANGKOK: -- The Thai Government was officially warned seven years ago that tsunamis stemming from an earthquake on the seabed could hit southwest Thailand, but the warning was ignored for fear of frightening off tourists and investors.

The veteran meteorologist who issued the warning, Samith Dhamasaroj, was called "crazy" by some, and sidelined to an inactive position from which he later resigned.

But now, after the Boxing Day catastrophe – which by yesterday had cost 4812 lives in Thailand, half of them foreign tourists, and huge destruction of property – he has been vindicated, and put in charge of establishing a nationwide early-warning system for all natural disasters.

He said yesterday that such a system would have saved 10to 50 per cent of the lives lost. Mr Samith, the former director general of the Thai Meteorological Department, told The Australian: "Seven years ago, as chief meteorological official, I predicted the possibility of an earthquake and tsunami in the Bay of Bengal, the Andaman Sea or around Sarawak.

"I suggested an early-warning system be put in place for tidal waves, such as alarm sirens at beachside hotels in Phuket, Phang Nga and Krabi, the three provinces which have now been hit. I alerted senior officials in these provinces, but no one paid any attention."

He said some provinces had even banned him from entering their territories because "they said I was damaging their image with foreign tourists". Thai sources said some senior provincial officials had dismissed him as "crazy".

The sources noted Mr Samith had been sidelined after his earlier warnings, the last issued in 1998. Mr Samith had stipulated at the time no hotels should be built closer than 300m from the sea, a recommendation that would have angered powerful economic forces in the region, the sources added.

But last Thursday, Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra put Mr Samith in charge of establishing an advanced seismic and tsunami warning system for the whole nation. The brief would also take in other calamities such as storms and floods. He was named a vice-minister reporting directly to Mr Thaksin.

Mr Samith said that, after he felt the tremors in Phuket on December 26, he tried to get through to his successor at the Meteorological Department, an old friend, to ask that a tsunami warning be urgently issued – but he was unable to reach him, and other weather bureau lines were blocked.

He said meteorological officials would not make a decision because they were afraid that, if they made a wrong forecast, someone would blame them. He said there would have been enough time for warnings after the earthquake struck at 8am, followed by the tsunamis about 9.15am.

"Even half an hour should have been enough," he said.

"Now we have this tragedy, and I am very sad, because 50 per cent, or at least 10 per cent, of the people who died could have been saved if there had been warnings."

Mr Samith said he had issued his alert seven years ago after studying information on the twin dangers of earthquakes and tsunamis, after studying material published in China, Japan and the US over the previous 25 years.

In announcing Mr Samith's appointment, Mr Thaksin, who faces an election on February 6, said: "Some may say we are putting up fences after the cows have gone.

"But there are still some cows left, and more will be coming, and we need to have a strong fence."

--news.com.au

[califdann]

The whistle blowers always get shafted. Happens every time.

[harpman88]

Yet another chilling example of

it isn't until the "sh-- hits the fan that it gets splattered on to the wall".....Well,looks like now,(albeit after the horrible fact)

at least the man will get his just due......

[lukamar]

I remember some time ago watching a documentary on Mt Pinatubo in the Philippines. The jist of the thing was how the volcanologists struggled before they finally gave the evacuation warning because they if they were wrong, no one would head another warning.

It's defiantly "Peter and the Wolf" for the people that have to issue a warning. A job I would not envy anyone without the proper information. If you issue a warning to evacuate and nothing happens it causes a severe loss of confidence in the system. When the warning does need to be issued possibly few will listen and then the outcome could be the same as now.

If the Thai government does go with the installation of a sensor warning system I hope they also go the extra mile and get the information about it to the locals through education. For the tourists it is important that every hotel room have information on the system as well and in multiple languages. For some reason I, probably ignorance, I did not think about the large multinational nature of the Thai tourist industry, especially from northern European countries.

[RDN]

.....But last Thursday, Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra put Mr Samith in charge of establishing an advanced seismic and tsunami warning system for the whole nation. ....

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Toxin is very clever. "Keep your friends close, but your enemies closer." Election time soon.

[Rhys]

Well came you blame them ... yes.. so the Astromony Professor up in Khon Kaen who has predicted that a meteor well hit the earth.. will be given his due..

Well TAXSIN and the rest of TRT.. are grads of Cork Soaker U... does it get any better..

[sonnyjc7]

Nothing ever applies to anyone here except the farangs. Don't do anything that would interfer with the making of money. Haven't I read that there are hotels boasting they are up and running. Even as they finish picking up the bodies on the beach!

[lemon]

He said some provinces had even banned him from entering their territories because "they said I was damaging their image with foreign tourists". Thai sources said some senior provincial officials had dismissed him as "crazy".

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

oh dear dear dear surely foreign tourists would have felt reassured by knowing that the locals were fully aware of the situation and well prepared with emergency measures put in place...wouldnt it have inspired foreign tourists' confidence in the thai authorities by their recognition of a risk and them showing that they are ready to deal with a situation instead of this very short-sighted ridiculing of an obviously competent expert and sweeping the whole matter under the carpet...

[Whitey]

I think that after a big disaster like this, most people will heed warnings even if they prove to be false, at least for awhile...as long as this memory remains.

[Zoltan]

If this happened in North America someone would be getting sued!

[ayakiawe]

here is a web site with more truth for you about the situation possibly?

www.globalresearch.ca/articles/CHO412C.html

The US Military and the State Department were given advanced warning. America's Navy base on the island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean was notified.

Why were fishermen in India, Sri Lanka and Thailand not provided with the same warnings as the US Navy and the US State Department?

Why did the US State Department remain mum on the existence of an impending catastrophe?

With a modern communications

check out the web site if you want!

[fire and ice]

Two points to make here:

1. I'm surprised they have actually given the guy a job now - I would have expected them to hide their past mistakes by pretending he never existed & trying even harder to cover up & keep him quiet.

Or was he already fairly well publicised in years gone by??

I take note about the comment of keeping your enemies closer. Then again Thaksin wasn't in charge 7 years ago so it doesn't make him look that silly re-hiring the guy when he wasn't the one to get rid of him previously.

2. Reportedly a bunch of Thais were deciding whether to issue a warning immediately after the earthquake & decided not to essentially so they didn’t look

stupid & damage tourism if no waves came. - Clearly this is a case of Thais not understanding farang. They seem to think we have the same concept of "losing face" as they do! I’m sure almost all farangs like myself are very well accustomed to fire drills at school and all sorts of false alarms - the fire alarm in my apartment building (16 floors 64 flats) goes off all the time for example. Whilst it is annoying I cannot conceive that many farangs would think poorly if a warning was issued, the beaches cleared & nothing happened. Maybe the Thais would think they were idiots but farangs would just view this sort of thing as normal & would not make the tourist industry look bad (for issuing false alarms).

The Thais seem to think they can lose face with farangs when the concept doesn’t even exist for us.

I guess having just typed this I now realise that they do this all the time, its just more obvious when it is done on an official level.

[camerata]

Then again Thaksin wasn't in charge 7 years ago so it doesn't make him look that silly re-hiring the guy when he wasn't the one to get rid of him previously.

Exactly. It emphasizes how wrong the previous government was to ignore his warnings.

2. Reportedly a bunch of Thais were deciding whether to issue a warning immediately after the earthquake & decided not to essentially so they didn’t look

stupid & damage tourism if no waves came. - Clearly this is a case of Thais not understanding farang. They seem to think we have the same concept of "losing face" as they do!

I think it was more a case of not wanting to lose their jobs (as the previous head of the department did) than not wanting to lose face.

[The_Moog]

Agreed - Samith's re-appointment bashes the Government of the day, could have been Democrat, could have been New Aspiration.

Now the pendulum will swing in the opposite direction, with a proliferation of warnings and beach evacuations. (plus a few drunken jackasses, amusing themselves by running around screaming 'wave')

[sbk]

here is a web site with more truth for you about the situation possibly?

www.globalresearch.ca/articles/CHO412C.html

The US Military and the State Department were given advanced warning. America's Navy base on the island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean was notified.

Why were fishermen in India, Sri Lanka and Thailand not provided with the same warnings as the US Navy and the US State Department?

Why did the US State Department remain mum on the existence of an impending catastrophe?

With a modern communications

check out the web site if you want!

Actually I do remember reading that the Tsunami warning ctr in LA tried to warn Thailand and other countries that a tsunami was coming and couldn't find anyone who understood them when they did call.

[RDN]

here is a web site with more truth for you about the situation possibly?

www.globalresearch.ca/articles/CHO412C.html.....

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Thanks for the link. I recommend all to read it: http://www.globalresearch.ca/articles/CHO412C.html

Two points to make here:

1. I'm surprised they have actually given the guy a job now - I would have expected them to hide their past mistakes by pretending he never existed ...

Too late for that - what he said is in the public domain.

....I take note about the comment of keeping your enemies closer. Then again Thaksin wasn't in charge 7 years ago so it doesn't make him look that silly re-hiring the guy when he wasn't the one to get rid of him previously.

True - this isn't Thaksin's fault and doesn't make him look bad personally. But if he hadn't hired the guy, he would have had little control over him. When it comes to scientists versus politicians, scientists will win in the long term - "The truth will out."

......Maybe the Thais would think they were idiots but farangs would just view this sort of thing as normal ...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Interesting point - was this disaster partly caused by the Thais concern with "face"?

[tonybuxton]

no-one has mentioned that a lot 0f people were injured and killed by all the flying chairs tables umbrellas and massage couches crammed everywhere on the beach, these items also obstructed people from making a quick exit. Efforts may be made no prohibit these things on the beach, but since they are a profitable rental income of influential Thais, this is highly unlikely. They will claim they are giving employment to a lot of locals, who collect the fees, but they give them a pittance for doing so, keeping about 90% of the proceeds themselves!!

[RDN]

....Efforts may be made to prohibit these things on the beach, ...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

If only! The only good thing to come out of this disaster is that the beaches look like beaches now - not like a giant hotel swimming pool.

Before:

After:

Edited January 3, 2005 by RDN

[bkk_mike]

If this happened in North America someone would be getting sued!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

If a person catches a cold in North America, someone gets sued...

[kat]

here is a web site with more truth for you about the situation possibly?

www.globalresearch.ca/articles/CHO412C.html

The US Military and the State Department were given advanced warning. America's Navy base on the island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean was notified.

Why were fishermen in India, Sri Lanka and Thailand not provided with the same warnings as the US Navy and the US State Department?

Why did the US State Department remain mum on the existence of an impending catastrophe?

With a modern communications

check out the web site if you want!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

This website is interesting as a collection of different bullentins and timelines, but it is not a source of objective information. The author of the article clearly presents data in a very biased manner. He is not really collecting data to reach a conclusion, but rather has collected and presented data that helps him reach his own conclusion. I wonder if he will publish the copy of the Thai Meterological's contact information slip, which gives no contact information other than an address.

Secondly, he seems to have an issue that they revised the magnitude of the quake; this is not an anomaly when it comes to very large quakes.

Thirdly, what is with the dramatized, ominious tone that it was not a tsunami warning? The tsunami warning center and network was explicitly for the Pacific network countries. Duh?

Fourthly, there are counter reports circulating that they actually did try to warn government officials and embassies before the tsunami occurred. I support an investigation into the matter, but will withhold my judgements until I know the FACTS, not some nimrod's conspiratorial and bigoted political rantings. We already have plenty of substantiated FACTS that for one Thailand's meterological professionals were unreachable, even by those in Thailand, and even after previous warnings years before. In fact, they were reprimanded for previous warnings years before. Tell me, this is all America's fault as well, isn't it?

And lastly, if you are going to go on a lynch-hunt for American geologists and geophyicists as a sign of our moral decrepitude in this diaster, at least be consistent and question why Japanese officials and Australian officials - who were also warned by the way, and are much closer to the region - didn't contact their regional neighbors as well. But perhaps that puts a strain on your sloganeering approach to reason.

Edited for clarity of typos and spelling.

Edited January 3, 2005 by kat

[farangnoi]

The Dutch minister Remkes of foreign affairs, who was on Kho Samui during boxingday, didn't care about his nationals.

He didn't want to be disturbed on his holliday.

After our P.M. that this was absurbt, mr Remkes went on Jan the 3th to Phuket.

[george]

Opposition blames govt negligence for scale of damage

BANGKOK: -- The Opposition yesterday fired the opening salvoes in a political war over last week's tsunamis, blaming the government’s ‘negligence of public safety’ for the scale of the damage.

Speaking in response to the transfer of Meteorological Department head Suparerk Tansriratanawong, Deputy Democrat Spokesman Narit Chamnurak said that it was typical of the government to deflect the blame onto civil servants without bearing any of the responsibility itself.

Noting that a cabinet declaration issued in February 2001 had pledged to ensure the safety of the public, he said that the tsunami damage showed that the government had failed to honour its manifesto promises.

The government, he said, had not invested in money or equipment which could have helped save lives.

Accusing the government of making a scapegoat of the Meteorological Department head out of fear that it might, otherwise, be blamed, he said that the government was yet again simply trying to let itself off the hook.

--TNA 2005-01-06