Military Biggest Winner In Political Conflict

[Gravelrash]

The Nation

THE BIG WINNER from the political chaos of the last three years has been the Thai military. Possibly, the generals are now more powerful than at any time over the past twenty years. Under coup rule, they might seem more powerful but in truth are a little limited by being fully exposed. In present circumstances, they have a discrete cover. It is hard to recall the last change of government when the army chief played such a prominent role. The publicity-shy General Anupong has a higher profile in day-to-day news than his publicity-hogging predecessor General Sonthi a year ago.

The most spectacular evidence of the military's success is in the national budget. Over three budget cycles, the allocation for defence has almost doubled from Bt85 billion in 2006 to Bt167 billion in 2009. The allocation for internal security has also soared from Bt77 billion to Bt114 billion over the same period. No other segment of the budget has grown in the same way, and indeed most have been shaved down to accommodate this growth in security spending. The scale of this budget boost has to be measured against what preceded it. The defence share of the budget had slumped steadily from 19 per cent in 1991 down to 6.3 per cent in 2006. It was no coincidence that this decline in the defence share coincided with the long period of parliamentary rule, and that the upturn (now back to 9.1 percent) has come after a coup. Buying weapons is back on the agenda. The navy wants to add submarines to park beside its aircraft carrier.

But the budget is only one sign of the military's recent success. The military also has three trophies from the frenzy of legislation in the dying days of the coup-appointed parliament.

The most important is the Internal Security Act. This legislation reconfirms the military's role in internal security, which seemed in peril after the Democrats reviewed the anti-communist law in the late 1990s. In the first, extremely ambitious draft of the law, the army head was to become head of the revived Isoc, and beholden to virtually nobody. The parliament amended this to make the prime minister the titular head of Isoc, but in effect the operational power remains with the army chief. The boundaries of internal security are not defined in the law and hence are open to wide interpretation. The act is the charter for the army to reclaim the guardianship role in Thai politics that it developed in the Cold War era and lost over the past two decades. This guardianship is not just about putting governments in power but extends down the administrative pyramid. The army policy document leaked a year ago stated that "kamnan, village heads, and local government bodies must be in our hands", and army personnel should take over duties such as suppressing drugs, controlling illegal migration, combating drought and flood, and alleviating poverty. The Isoc chief in each province is to spearhead this policy, mobilising help from reservists and former cadet school students.

The Broadcasting Act is another triumph. Ever since 1992, there has been public pressure for reform and liberalisation of the media. The 1997 Constitution mandated a new regulatory structure under which broadcasting frequencies would be treated as public goods. This structure was never implemented because of sabotage by old vested interests. The new Broadcasting Act is a brilliant pre-emptive move that puts all the intentions of the 1997 Constitution firmly in the past. The Act creates a new regulatory structure but offers absolutely no threat to the old system of broadcasting concessions. Thailand is probably the only purported democracy where the military owns two free-to-air television channels, one directly managed, and many radio stations. These broadcast outlets are channels for propaganda and sources of non-transparent flows of income.

The Defence Ministry Act is a direct response to Thaksin's interventions in the military promotion lists. In the past the promotion lists were prepared by the service chiefs then passed to the defence minister and prime minister before submission for the royal signature. Generally any disagreements had to be resolved among the parties before the final submission. In 2005, Thaksin seems to have altered the final list, provoking a crisis. The new bill changes the system. The list is vetted by a committee made up of the three service chiefs, permanent secretary for defence, prime minister, and defence minister. Any dispute is to be decided by a vote. The service chiefs have a built-in majority. As long as they are united, the prime minister is out of it.

In July 2006, General Prem famously said, "soldiers belong to His Majesty the King, not to a government. A government is like a jockey. It supervises soldiers, but the real owners are the country, and the King." During the long stand-off between the PAD and the Samak-Somchai governments, General Anupong repeatedly insisted on remaining "independent" and being "on the side of the people", which essentially meant refusing to act as the security arm of the elected government. When a State of Emergency was declared, he mobilised troops but kept them inside the barracks. When the airports were seized, he stood aside. At one point Anupong stated, "I am not a soldier of the government. The army belongs to the Thai public. I can't channel it to serve as anybody's private army."

Under the Constitution, the monarch is the head of the armed forces. The working relationship between the executive and military has always been a matter of delicate negotiation. After 1992, the pendulum seemed to be swinging away from the generals. Parliament demanded more transparency in the budget. Chuan and Samak disrupted the "convention" that the defence minister should be a military man. Thaksin exerted influence on promotions. Now the pendulum has swung firmly back. The military is more a power unto itself. The prime minister seems to be a spokesman defending the military against accusations of abuse.

Edited February 3, 2009 by Gravelrash

[londonthai]

army created the political mess in the last few years to it's own benefit, not to benefit of people or even the country. Because of it thailand is in a deep political crisis, which might end up badly to everybody, including the military - political class might loose the popular mandate to represent the majority

[geeky]

sad but true ... even worse: those PAD supporters have no clue what they have done ... which means they'll most likely do it again ... well, what to say? TiT

[Gravelrash]

To use an old analogy Thailand is like an onion, keep peeling away the layers and nothing is what it appears to be, certainly the local press for the most part offers few glimpses. Sadly we still get those cheering for things they think they are seeing, when in reality they have no idea what is going on. There again even when matters start to crystallize they will invent another comfortable non-reality to soothe their denial.

"In religion and politics, people's beliefs and convictions are in almost every case gotten at second hand, and without examination." Mark Twain.

[Lickey]

I have the idea that Thailand military [army police whatever] have seen what has happened in Burma, and can see themselves doing the same,

I really do smell a rat in the way they did nothing when the airport was closed down for 8 days, anybody any ideas if a military junta ruled Thailand??

[dee123]

yes it appears now there is a "Puppet Goverment"......and more importantly they are not afraid to admit it!

[sriracha john]

Duplicate thread.

Article previously posted and discussed here on earlier thread:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?s=...t&p=2505612

[jumnien]

To use an old analogy Thailand is like an onion, keep peeling away the layers and nothing is what it appears to be, certainly the local press for the most part offers few glimpses. Sadly we still get those cheering for things they think they are seeing, when in reality they have no idea what is going on. There again even when matters start to crystallize they will invent another comfortable non-reality to soothe their denial.

"In religion and politics, people's beliefs and convictions are in almost every case gotten at second hand, and without examination." Mark Twain.

The Military has become so entrenched in Thai politics since 2005 it is hard to imagine it being any other way now. The Thaksin era is like a dream now, far away. Is their someone to take his place in establishing a non-military option? Not without a fight, that is for sure! In the meantime, let's hope the PAD-Demo's run the country into the ground and at least make the exchange rate more favorable to TV members! People should not be in such a rush to get rid of Abhisit...

[DP25]

The Thaksin era is like a dream now, far away.

Yes, a bad dream. Full of corruption and mass murder of thousands of innocent people without trail.

[jumnien]

The Thaksin era is like a dream now, far away.

Yes, a bad dream. Full of corruption and mass murder of thousands of innocent people without trail.

We are not in total disagreement. But, while the US is guilty of slaughtering hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians in the Muslim world, I am not in favor of a military takeover. This is as much a psychological issue as a political one. Some people just don't trust militaries and some people can't surrender enough of their lives to militaries. Whatever floats your boat (some people like sail boats, some like destroyers).

[geriatrickid]

We are not in total disagreement. But, while the US is guilty of slaughtering hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians in the Muslim world, I am not in favor of a military takeover. This is as much a psychological issue as a political one. Some people just don't trust militaries and some people can't surrender enough of their lives to militaries. Whatever floats your boat (some people like sail boats, some like destroyers).

Thanks for using this thread to push your unsubstantiated allegation. Slaughter. Nice word. If the USA is responsible then they certainly will be at the back of the line, behind the Muslim world. Mr. Assad didn't think twice when he bulldozed a town burying his people........bah, not worth the digits to refute your nonsense. What's next, blaming the US for the price of toilet tissue at Tesco?

back to Thailand. he military is its own self contained world and looks out for itself. Period. They pretend to have the nation's interest at heart, but they day they actually respect the electoral process is the day they put words into action.

[Briggsy]

The Thai military. A state within a state with all the organs of a state and power structures required for it not to be in any way dependent on the wider country whilst it feeds on the wider country becoming bloated whilst the civilians toil on its behalf.