£ Nudging 52 Bht

[Naam]

Ive never seen such profitable trading positions re Sterling/Dollar as they are currently. No point in stating how much profit Ive personally made as anyone could pluck figures out of the air but if you need direction dont hesitate to ask :D

i don't deny that but i focus and trade once in a while USD/EUR. as for needed directions... thank you, but no thank you

[12DrinkMore]

Expect in the short term some more pain but long term the average Englishman will still be relatively affluent on the world stage.

I agree.

I also think that 12DrinkMore is causing more harm/panic than good with his continual OTT comments. People are not dying in the streets, life goes on and the economic cycle will go round. I believe that we are somewhere near the bottom and things in 2010 will be better than 2009.

Oh come on. My little voice isn't affecting anybody, but try the VASTLY MORE INFLUENTIAL GOB of Mervyn King speaking yesterday.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/finance...ce-the-war.html

Mervyn King said Britain would face its deepest and most painful economic slide in the post-war era, as he unveiled a stark assessment of the nation’s fate this year.

In the most pessimistic assessment of Britain’s prospects in the modern era, Mr King said:

The economy faces its deepest recession since the post-war years of 1945 and 1946, and its worst peace time decline since 1931.

The Bank is likely to reduce interest rates further, perhaps to as low as zero, in an attempt to prevent the downturn becoming worse than the depression in the 1930s.

It will resort to new drastic measures to pump extra cash into the economy as soon as this week.

Unemployment – which hit 1.97 million yesterday – will rise further and house prices will continue to fall in the coming months.

Mr King also warned that unless the Government, and politicians around the world, succeeded in bringing the banking crisis to an end, the consequences for the economy could be even more severe.

Now THAT will influence MILLIONS of people and create EVEN more pessimism and continue the downward spiral.

King's words make all my postings look like utter optimism.

the average Englishman will still be relatively affluent on the world stage

Wealth in the UK simply does not exists anymore, there are only debts left, it was all an illusion. Try and sell your house. Try and get a loan to buy a house, there is no money available. Everything abroad is now 35% more expensive, try talking to a few pensioners living in Thailand. They do NOT feel affluent AT ALL. Wait for imported inflation to hit the supermarket shelves.

Presumably you mean affluent relative to the average Zimbabwean?

:D :D

[Chaimai]

Expect in the short term some more pain but long term the average Englishman will still be relatively affluent on the world stage.

I agree.

I also think that 12DrinkMore is causing more harm/panic than good with his continual OTT comments. People are not dying in the streets, life goes on and the economic cycle will go round. I believe that we are somewhere near the bottom and things in 2010 will be better than 2009.

Oh come on. My little voice isn't affecting anybody, but try the VASTLY MORE INFLUENTIAL GOB of Mervyn King speaking yesterday.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/finance...ce-the-war.html

Mervyn King said Britain would face its deepest and most painful economic slide in the post-war era, as he unveiled a stark assessment of the nation's fate this year.

In the most pessimistic assessment of Britain's prospects in the modern era, Mr King said:

The economy faces its deepest recession since the post-war years of 1945 and 1946, and its worst peace time decline since 1931.

The Bank is likely to reduce interest rates further, perhaps to as low as zero, in an attempt to prevent the downturn becoming worse than the depression in the 1930s.

It will resort to new drastic measures to pump extra cash into the economy as soon as this week.

Unemployment – which hit 1.97 million yesterday – will rise further and house prices will continue to fall in the coming months.

Mr King also warned that unless the Government, and politicians around the world, succeeded in bringing the banking crisis to an end, the consequences for the economy could be even more severe.

Now THAT will influence MILLIONS of people and create EVEN more pessimism and continue the downward spiral.

Once again you are taking a sensationalist view. What King has said is not news, it is stating the blindingly obvious - it also true of almost every country in the world.

One of the pies in which I have a finger is mortgage broking. Yes, mortgage broking - in about as much demand as selling ice in Alaska. However, I can report a number of things:-

Buyers are drifting back to the market and we have seen greater activity in the last 4 weeks.

This was probably partly on the back of Nationwide reporting a 1.9% increase in prices.

We can now get 90% Loan to Value products for some customers.

Fixed rates are just about getting low enough to be an attractive option vs the contrived low Base/Standard Variable rates.

Property investors are starting to come out of the woodwork - necessary components in the buying chain at the lower end.

Locally, prices have not dropped more than 15% and estate agents are reporting increased sales. Realistic asking prices will eventually find a buyer.

Very small green shoots which will no doubt result in the usual false start - however, these sort of signs are an integral part of the recovery stage, albeit the early stages. That is what has happened in previous recessions and that is what will happen in this one.

The banks will continue to sit on their ar5es and I have personal examples that show that they are taking no notice of Brown's call to support the business community. They will take the opportunity to be exceedingly selective in the supply of credit and they will seek to increase pricing, on a take it or leave it basis, to try and recover their losses asap - deja vue - it happened in the early 1990's as well. Give it a couple of years and the lemming principle will ensure that the banks will return to fighting for market share. Couple this with the previous inherent demand for housing returning and you could see the biggest boom in property prices for a decade - admittedly from a lower base.

The last 2 sentences are as optimstic as 12Drinkmore's are negative - however, you cannot argue that the picture is at least as plausible as 12D's Armageddon scenario.

Edited February 13, 2009 by Chaimai

[chiang mai]

When the sensationalism of the British Press combines with new increasingly scary financial stories daily, it's easy to lose sight of the fact that there are large parts of the British population that are totally unaffected by the current recession. Some 45% of UK homeowners have no mortgage and own their homes outright, that same group is likely to have savings and/or be in secure employment. The people who are or will be affected by the recession are those that sit on the other end of the spectrum - folks who over extended and loaded up their credit cards, people who dabbled in buy to let "investments" and those without secure long term employment. Dare I say, there will even be a large group of people who reckon that this whole business of recession is just background noise and don't believe it is real and it will not affect them in any negative way. During the recession of the early 1990's I was in such a group and I had my head down, working hard and making money. I bought and sold houses during that time and I never spent more than five minutes in total thinking about the economy. Those people out there today are real so when someone says, "wealth in the UK doesn't exist anymore", I say rubbish, simply not true at all. As for pensioners in Thailand not feeling affluent: sorry, but that's just not true either. There will be those expats who are getting hurt by a low exchange rate and a lack of interest income but frankly, many of those people are probably from the same UK group described above and are probably the ones who thought that the Pound would always be worth at least 70 Baht.

[Chaimai]

When the sensationalism of the British Press combines with new increasingly scary financial stories daily, it's easy to lose sight of the fact that there are large parts of the British population that are totally unaffected by the current recession. Some 45% of UK homeowners have no mortgage and own their homes outright, that same group is likely to have savings and/or be in secure employment. The people who are or will be affected by the recession are those that sit on the other end of the spectrum - folks who over extended and loaded up their credit cards, people who dabbled in buy to let "investments" and those without secure long term employment. Dare I say, there will even be a large group of people who reckon that this whole business of recession is just background noise and don't believe it is real and it will not affect them in any negative way. During the recession of the early 1990's I was in such a group and I had my head down, working hard and making money. I bought and sold houses during that time and I never spent more than five minutes in total thinking about the economy. Those people out there today are real so when someone says, "wealth in the UK doesn't exist anymore", I say rubbish, simply not true at all. As for pensioners in Thailand not feeling affluent: sorry, but that's just not true either. There will be those expats who are getting hurt by a low exchange rate and a lack of interest income but frankly, many of those people are probably from the same UK group described above and are probably the ones who thought that the Pound would always be worth at least 70 Baht.

Hurrah ! - a voice in the wilderness, a beacon

Thank you Chiang Mai for balancing the argument. There are a number of mitigating factors against the serity of this recession:-

Interest rates - virtually zero in the UK. This will be the salvation of those, like me, who are in debt - my mortgage payments have reduced from £870 to £190. I was a banker in the 1990's when interest rates were in double digits and went to 15%.

Inflation - dropping like a stone. was also in double digits in the last recession

CMai - I don't even want to start about the British press but they have done NOTHING to help.

[chiang mai]

Expect in the short term some more pain but long term the average Englishman will still be relatively affluent on the world stage.

I agree.

I also think that 12DrinkMore is causing more harm/panic than good with his continual OTT comments. People are not dying in the streets, life goes on and the economic cycle will go round. I believe that we are somewhere near the bottom and things in 2010 will be better than 2009.

Oh come on. My little voice isn't affecting anybody, but try the VASTLY MORE INFLUENTIAL GOB of Mervyn King speaking yesterday.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/finance...ce-the-war.html

Mervyn King said Britain would face its deepest and most painful economic slide in the post-war era, as he unveiled a stark assessment of the nation's fate this year.

In the most pessimistic assessment of Britain's prospects in the modern era, Mr King said:

The economy faces its deepest recession since the post-war years of 1945 and 1946, and its worst peace time decline since 1931.

The Bank is likely to reduce interest rates further, perhaps to as low as zero, in an attempt to prevent the downturn becoming worse than the depression in the 1930s.

It will resort to new drastic measures to pump extra cash into the economy as soon as this week.

Unemployment – which hit 1.97 million yesterday – will rise further and house prices will continue to fall in the coming months.

Mr King also warned that unless the Government, and politicians around the world, succeeded in bringing the banking crisis to an end, the consequences for the economy could be even more severe.

Now THAT will influence MILLIONS of people and create EVEN more pessimism and continue the downward spiral.

Once again you are taking a sensationalist view. What King has said is not news, it is stating the blindingly obvious - it also true of almost every country in the world.

One of the pies in which I have a finger is mortgage broking. Yes, mortgage broking - in about as much demand as selling ice in Alaska. However, I can report a number of things:-

Buyers are drifting back to the market and we have seen greater activity in the last 4 weeks.

This was probably partly on the back of Nationwide reporting a 1.9% increase in prices.

We can now get 90% Loan to Value products for some customers.

Fixed rates are just about getting low enough to be an attractive option vs the contrived low Base/Standard Variable rates.

Property investors are starting to come out of the woodwork - necessary components in the buying chain at the lower end.

Locally, prices have not dropped more than 15% and estate agents are reporting increased sales. Realistic asking prices will eventually find a buyer.

Very small green shoots which will no doubt result in the usual false start - however, these sort of signs are an integral part of the recovery stage, albeit the early stages. That is what has happened in previous recessions and that is what will happen in this one.

The banks will continue to sit on their ar5es and I have personal examples that show that they are taking no notice of Brown's call to support the business community. They will take the opportunity to be exceedingly selective in the supply of credit and they will seek to increase pricing, on a take it or leave it basis, to try and recover their losses asap - deja vue - it happened in the early 1990's as well. Give it a couple of years and the lemming principle will ensure that the banks will return to fighting for market share. Couple this with the previous inherent demand for housing returning and you could see the biggest boom in property prices for a decade - admittedly from a lower base.

The last 2 sentences are as optimstic as 12Drinkmore's are negative - however, you cannot argue that the picture is at least as plausible as 12D's Armageddon scenario.

Whilst I agree with the spirit of the things you wrote, just a couple of points on the detail.

I think that anyone who believes that the UK housing market is starting to recover at this point is either serving a vested interest in that they are a builder, estate agent or similar, else they are very short sighted. The housing downturn has at least another year to run and more probably, eighteen months. Thereafter the market will remain flat for a couple of years and future growth is much more likely to be limited to sensible levels.

[12DrinkMore]

Once again you are taking a sensationalist view. What King has said is not news, it is stating the blindingly obvious - it also true of almost every country in the world.

One of the pies in which I have a finger is mortgage broking. Yes, mortgage broking - in about as much demand as selling ice in Alaska. However, I can report a number of things:-

Buyers are drifting back to the market and we have seen greater activity in the last 4 weeks.

This was probably partly on the back of Nationwide reporting a 1.9% increase in prices.

We can now get 90% Loan to Value products for some customers.

Fixed rates are just about getting low enough to be an attractive option vs the contrived low Base/Standard Variable rates.

Property investors are starting to come out of the woodwork - necessary components in the buying chain at the lower end.

Locally, prices have not dropped more than 15% and estate agents are reporting increased sales. Realistic asking prices will eventually find a buyer.

go on, give us a link, just like I do. Or is it just your hope, which as our Alex points out, will kill you.

Very small green shoots which will no doubt result in the usual false start - however, these sort of signs are an integral part of the recovery stage, albeit the early stages. That is what has happened in previous recessions and that is what will happen in this one.

How can you be talking about recovery when out man Merv, the man who should know exactly how bad it is, even if he doesn't know how bad it will get, is still stating that it will get worse?

The banks will continue to sit on their ar5es and I have personal examples that show that they are taking no notice of Brown's call to support the business community. They will take the opportunity to be exceedingly selective in the supply of credit and they will seek to increase pricing, on a take it or leave it basis, to try and recover their losses asap - deja vue - it happened in the early 1990's as well. Give it a couple of years and the lemming principle will ensure that the banks will return to fighting for market share. Couple this with the previous inherent demand for housing returning and you could see the biggest boom in property prices for a decade - admittedly from a lower base.

Oh God, another BOOM! You are in dreamland, my man, there will never be such a thing again. Lessons have been learned, never again will we see self-certified mortgages at 5 times a fantasy salary. The depression is here, property prices will return to 1997 levels.

How about the commercial property market crash which is now on the way? All those vacant high street shops that nobody will rent or buy? All this cr4p has yet to hit the banks.

The last 2 sentences are as optimstic as 12Drinkmore's are negative - however, you cannot argue that the picture is at least as plausible as 12D's Armageddon scenario.

I am only relating to what I see, hear and read from the politicians, analysts and newspapers.

Hey and get this, you want to save for a mortgage and get the at least 20% deposit required?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/persona...rates-fall.html

Mr King expressed sympathy for savers, but indicated that they will be sacrificed as interest rates are cut further in a bid to revive the economy.

Maybe you have not personally lost money already? And you have also stated that you have a vested interest in getting the property market booming again.

But to get back to your point that the housing market is back on a boom, just give me a single fundamental reason why.

And its not

- a current booming market

- a vibrant and optimistic economy

- available and cheap credit

- decreasing unemployment

- a general optimistic mood that things will get better

Armageddon? Maybe not, but massive reduction in living standards certainly.

[chiang mai]

On the housing recovery (or lack of) issues, we can agree.

[thaimate]

Expect in the short term some more pain but long term the average Englishman will still be relatively affluent on the world stage.

I agree.

I also think that 12DrinkMore is causing more harm/panic than good with his continual OTT comments. People are not dying in the streets, life goes on and the economic cycle will go round. I believe that we are somewhere near the bottom and things in 2010 will be better than 2009.

Oh come on. My little voice isn't affecting anybody, but try the VASTLY MORE INFLUENTIAL GOB of Mervyn King speaking yesterday.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/finance...ce-the-war.html

Mervyn King said Britain would face its deepest and most painful economic slide in the post-war era, as he unveiled a stark assessment of the nation's fate this year.

In the most pessimistic assessment of Britain's prospects in the modern era, Mr King said:

The economy faces its deepest recession since the post-war years of 1945 and 1946, and its worst peace time decline since 1931.

The Bank is likely to reduce interest rates further, perhaps to as low as zero, in an attempt to prevent the downturn becoming worse than the depression in the 1930s.

It will resort to new drastic measures to pump extra cash into the economy as soon as this week.

Unemployment – which hit 1.97 million yesterday – will rise further and house prices will continue to fall in the coming months.

Mr King also warned that unless the Government, and politicians around the world, succeeded in bringing the banking crisis to an end, the consequences for the economy could be even more severe.

Now THAT will influence MILLIONS of people and create EVEN more pessimism and continue the downward spiral.

Once again you are taking a sensationalist view. What King has said is not news, it is stating the blindingly obvious - it also true of almost every country in the world.

One of the pies in which I have a finger is mortgage broking. Yes, mortgage broking - in about as much demand as selling ice in Alaska. However, I can report a number of things:-

Buyers are drifting back to the market and we have seen greater activity in the last 4 weeks.

This was probably partly on the back of Nationwide reporting a 1.9% increase in prices.

We can now get 90% Loan to Value products for some customers.

Fixed rates are just about getting low enough to be an attractive option vs the contrived low Base/Standard Variable rates.

Property investors are starting to come out of the woodwork - necessary components in the buying chain at the lower end.

Locally, prices have not dropped more than 15% and estate agents are reporting increased sales. Realistic asking prices will eventually find a buyer.

Very small green shoots which will no doubt result in the usual false start - however, these sort of signs are an integral part of the recovery stage, albeit the early stages. That is what has happened in previous recessions and that is what will happen in this one.

The banks will continue to sit on their ar5es and I have personal examples that show that they are taking no notice of Brown's call to support the business community. They will take the opportunity to be exceedingly selective in the supply of credit and they will seek to increase pricing, on a take it or leave it basis, to try and recover their losses asap - deja vue - it happened in the early 1990's as well. Give it a couple of years and the lemming principle will ensure that the banks will return to fighting for market share. Couple this with the previous inherent demand for housing returning and you could see the biggest boom in property prices for a decade - admittedly from a lower base.

The last 2 sentences are as optimstic as 12Drinkmore's are negative - however, you cannot argue that the picture is at least as plausible as 12D's Armageddon scenario.

dear sir

with regard to your green shoots and the rise in house prices,can i have some of what your smoking,i was a property developer in the 90s and indeed made money that is not happening now ,my ex, a conveyancer has no clients my friends ,estate agents are selling zilch and prices have a long way to fall yet .

ps your name isnt Alister orGordon is it?

[12DrinkMore]

When the sensationalism of the British Press combines with new increasingly scary financial stories daily, it's easy to lose sight of the fact that there are large parts of the British population that are totally unaffected by the current recession. Some 45% of UK homeowners have no mortgage and own their homes outright, that same group is likely to have savings and/or be in secure employment. The people who are or will be affected by the recession are those that sit on the other end of the spectrum - folks who over extended and loaded up their credit cards, people who dabbled in buy to let "investments" and those without secure long term employment. Dare I say, there will even be a large group of people who reckon that this whole business of recession is just background noise and don't believe it is real and it will not affect them in any negative way. During the recession of the early 1990's I was in such a group and I had my head down, working hard and making money. I bought and sold houses during that time and I never spent more than five minutes in total thinking about the economy. Those people out there today are real so when someone says, "wealth in the UK doesn't exist anymore", I say rubbish, simply not true at all. As for pensioners in Thailand not feeling affluent: sorry, but that's just not true either. There will be those expats who are getting hurt by a low exchange rate and a lack of interest income but frankly, many of those people are probably from the same UK group described above and are probably the ones who thought that the Pound would always be worth at least 70 Baht.

Good on yer! But maybe we can review this in a year?

There are massive differences between the last recession and this depression.

- the overall level of debt is much much bigger

- the creators of wealth, the manufacturers, who could help a recovery, have substantially relocated to cheaper countries. Look at the most recent example, Dell.

- the word "globalisation" was unknown

And to address a few specific points

- I doubt whether you will be dabbling in the property market and making money. The "buy to lets" lot are now in the "buy and lose it" group.

- if 45% are financially OK, how about the other 55% of profligate bsatrds now requiring YOU to pay their debts? How much of your "secure stash" will remain after Brown has introduced hyperinflation? And don't forget, all these bankrupt gits can no longer afford to buy goods other than the basics, so how many of the 45% jobs are secure?

- and now add in all the underfunded pension schemes, and the national pension, and the civil service pensions which are all to be funded by YOUR tax money.

- and then add in the bailouts to keep the banks running. This is all YOUR money heading down the pan.

- and then add in the 25% of the workforce employed in the civil service. You have 1/4 of a civil servant on your back for the rest of your life.

This is now a totally different situation. It is a GLOBAL crisis, not some itsy bitsy UK recession of the 70's. You only have to look at the figures being bandied around, we are now up to trillions.

And all those who reckon that it is some "background noise" are in for a HUGE awakening, as 150 decibels of FINANCIAL CRISIS hits them.

[russianrobert]

Here's an article today in the Telegraph that supports what i posted earlier about a weaker pound being an advantage to the UK. So much so the other finance ministers of Europe are complaining the pound is too low and likely to take business away from them.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economi...ings-slide.html

[12DrinkMore]

Here's an article today in the Telegraph that supports what i posted earlier about a weaker pound being an advantage to the UK. So much so the other finance ministers of Europe are complaining the pound is too low and likely to take business away from them.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economi...ings-slide.html

Sorry to carry on.

What does this really mean? I suggest

- it will lessen the chances of the UK being able to raise finance on the international markets. The Europeans are pi55ed off by Brown's "fukc you lot, I will go it alone"

- it will reduce the chance of joining the Euro, which could save further devaluation of the GBP and stabilise things a bit.

- the UK does not really have any substantial manufactured exports that, in a world depression, will be bought anyway. Luxury goods are not going to be in demand.

- ALL UK manufactured goods rely on imports for basic materials, due to the devaluation of the GBP, these are all now 35% more expensive, which will filter through to the final factory gate price.

Globalisation has negated the possibility of a nation devaluing its currency to maintain exports. It is now down to efficiency and producing a product at a price that is globally competitive. Give me an example of a UK product that meets that requirement.

We will now see a surge of protectionism, "buy British", "employ Britains". But in the end, to pay the import bills, we have to compete with everybody else in the world, unless some huge sponsor can be found to fund the UK. Who will that be? With Brown's zero interest rate policy and the increasing possibility of hyperinflation, there is NOBODY ON THIS PLANET who will buy UK government bonds.

Edited February 13, 2009 by 12DrinkMore

[russianrobert]

Here's an article today in the Telegraph that supports what i posted earlier about a weaker pound being an advantage to the UK. So much so the other finance ministers of Europe are complaining the pound is too low and likely to take business away from them.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economi...ings-slide.html

Sorry to carry on.

What does this really mean? I suggest

- it will lessen the chances of the UK being able to raise finance on the international markets. The Europeans are pi55ed off by Brown's "fukc you lot, I will go it alone"

- it will reduce the chance of joining the Euro, which could save further devaluation of the GBP and stabilise things a bit.

- the UK does not really have any substantial manufactured exports that, in a world depression, will be bought anyway. Luxury goods are not going to be in demand.

- ALL UK manufactured goods rely on imports for basic materials, due to the devaluation of the GBP, these are all now 35% more expensive, which will filter through to the final factory gate price.

Globalisation has negated the possibility of a nation devaluing its currency to maintain exports. It is now down to efficiency and producing a product at a price that is globally competitive. Give me an example of a UK product that meets that requirement.

We will now see a surge of protectionism, "buy British", "employ Britains". But in the end, to pay the import bills, we have to compete with everybody else in the world, unless some huge sponsor can be found to fund the UK. Who will that be? With Brown's zero interest rate policy and the increasing possibility of hyperinflation, there is NOBODY ON THIS PLANET who will buy UK government bonds.

A low pound can be a plus for UK so could be easier for UK to raise funds on int. markets.

It wasn't the UK that sold the pound and drove it down.

The rest of Europe would never agree to Uk joining the Euro at these low exchange rates. Too much of an advantage for us.

If the UK is such a basket case what the hel_l are the finance ministers of Europe worried about?

Like everyone else the UK will be shopping around for the cheapest imports and be in a position to negotiate price.

Globalisation and efficiency? Give me ONE example of Indian efficiency.

A cheaper pound will help UK to compete. Uk is not alone in this financial crisis. Who's going to fund Europe and the US for example?

[Merangue]

Here's an article today in the Telegraph that supports what i posted earlier about a weaker pound being an advantage to the UK. So much so the other finance ministers of Europe are complaining the pound is too low and likely to take business away from them.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economi...ings-slide.html

Sorry to carry on.

What does this really mean? I suggest

- it will lessen the chances of the UK being able to raise finance on the international markets. The Europeans are pi55ed off by Brown's "fukc you lot, I will go it alone"

- it will reduce the chance of joining the Euro, which could save further devaluation of the GBP and stabilise things a bit.

- the UK does not really have any substantial manufactured exports that, in a world depression, will be bought anyway. Luxury goods are not going to be in demand.

- ALL UK manufactured goods rely on imports for basic materials, due to the devaluation of the GBP, these are all now 35% more expensive, which will filter through to the final factory gate price.

Globalisation has negated the possibility of a nation devaluing its currency to maintain exports. It is now down to efficiency and producing a product at a price that is globally competitive. Give me an example of a UK product that meets that requirement.

We will now see a surge of protectionism, "buy British", "employ Britains". But in the end, to pay the import bills, we have to compete with everybody else in the world, unless some huge sponsor can be found to fund the UK. Who will that be? With Brown's zero interest rate policy and the increasing possibility of hyperinflation, there is NOBODY ON THIS PLANET who will buy UK government bonds.

A low pound can be a plus for UK so could be easier for UK to raise funds on int. markets.

It wasn't the UK that sold the pound and drove it down.

The rest of Europe would never agree to Uk joining the Euro at these low exchange rates. Too much of an advantage for us.

If the UK is such a basket case what the hel_l are the finance ministers of Europe worried about?

Like everyone else the UK will be shopping around for the cheapest imports and be in a position to negotiate price.

Globalisation and efficiency? Give me ONE example of Indian efficiency.

A cheaper pound will help UK to compete. Uk is not alone in this financial crisis. Who's going to fund Europe and the US for example?

Well said Russianrobert.

I have come to the conclusion that 12drinkmore's unstoppably negativity, he actually WANTS the £ to collapse. He actively seems to campaign for it and for the £ to crumble and i can only think he has an ulterior motive.

[Chaimai]

Locally, prices have not dropped more than 15% and estate agents are reporting increased sales. Realistic asking prices will eventually find a buyer

go on, give us a link, just like I do. Or is it just your hope, which as our Alex points out, will kill you.

I cannot give you a link for local knowledge/observation/fact. Providing to regurgitated press comment only puts you in the Bingobongo land

Very small green shoots which will no doubt result in the usual false start - however, these sort of signs are an integral part of the recovery stage, albeit the early stages. That is what has happened in previous recessions and that is what will happen in this one.

How can you be talking about recovery when out man Merv, the man who should know exactly how bad it is, even if he doesn't know how bad it will get, is still stating that it will get worse?

There is always a recovery and it usually starts a long way back (as did the recession). If Merv (and government leaders) was/were so smart they would have seen the Northern Rock debacle coming and handled it better, seen the economic crisis coming sooner and not persisted with an inflation driven interest rate strategy when what was needed was some stimulus.

Give it a couple of years and the lemming principle will ensure that the banks will return to fighting for market share. Couple this with the previous inherent demand for housing returning and you could see the biggest boom in property prices for a decade - admittedly from a lower base.

Oh God, another BOOM! You are in dreamland, my man, there will never be such a thing again. Lessons have been learned, never again will we see self-certified mortgages at 5 times a fantasy salary. The depression is here, property prices will return to 1997 levels.

A 'boom' in relative terms is part of all cycles. There WILL be one again because there has always been one. "Lessons have been learned" - <deleted>, lenders do not learn they follow the herd. I hope that we do not see self-cert 5x salary cases, certainly at some of the LTV's that were available. However, I would be happy with a 5x salary self cert mortgage at, say, 50/60% LTV for someone with a sound credit rating. It is common sense that such a person is less likely to default. Property prices WILL NOT return to 1997 levels. You are clearly a subscriber to housepricedrop.com - I wonder what angle they are coming in at ??

Properties in my area are moving at 15% below early 2008 values - the evidence will show up on Rightmove in due course.

How about the commercial property market crash which is now on the way? All those vacant high street shops that nobody will rent or buy? All this cr4p has yet to hit the banks.

The banks will have those positions covered and Provisions already allocated. Lloyds did not show a £9bn loss in HBOS without first clearing out all the crap.. The pendulum with these banks usually swings from £xx loss to £xx profit in the following year.

The last 2 sentences are as optimstic as 12Drinkmore's are negative - however, you cannot argue that the picture is at least as plausible as 12D's Armageddon scenario.

I am only relating to what I see, hear and read from the politicians, analysts and newspapers.

That is 100% credible then

Maybe you have not personally lost money already? And you have also stated that you have a vested interest in getting the property market booming again.

But to get back to your point that the housing market is back on a boom, just give me a single fundamental reason why.

And its not

- a current booming market

- a vibrant and optimistic economy

- available and cheap credit

- decreasing unemployment

- a general optimistic mood that things will get better

Armageddon? Maybe not, but massive reduction in living standards certainly.

Please read what was written. We are nowhere near a boom - I am simply suggesting that 'boom' is part of every economic cycle. Another year or so may see conditions that support a relative 'boom'. I also fully admit to a vested interest - I have 2 unsold new houses that will probably break-even at best. I have had to close 2 broker shops and make 4 people redundant - I didn't like that one bit. We are having to adapt a trench mentality and survival budget to salvage a remaining shop. We will achieve that but, YES, I will look for green shoots wherever they exist and whilst difficult times lay ahead I look forward to those better times and will not wallow in depressive analysis of how much worse it COULD if this or that were to happen. I would rather be part of a drive forward to better times even if it feels like wading through treacle at times.

[chiang mai]

When the sensationalism of the British Press combines with new increasingly scary financial stories daily, it's easy to lose sight of the fact that there are large parts of the British population that are totally unaffected by the current recession. Some 45% of UK homeowners have no mortgage and own their homes outright, that same group is likely to have savings and/or be in secure employment. The people who are or will be affected by the recession are those that sit on the other end of the spectrum - folks who over extended and loaded up their credit cards, people who dabbled in buy to let "investments" and those without secure long term employment. Dare I say, there will even be a large group of people who reckon that this whole business of recession is just background noise and don't believe it is real and it will not affect them in any negative way. During the recession of the early 1990's I was in such a group and I had my head down, working hard and making money. I bought and sold houses during that time and I never spent more than five minutes in total thinking about the economy. Those people out there today are real so when someone says, "wealth in the UK doesn't exist anymore", I say rubbish, simply not true at all. As for pensioners in Thailand not feeling affluent: sorry, but that's just not true either. There will be those expats who are getting hurt by a low exchange rate and a lack of interest income but frankly, many of those people are probably from the same UK group described above and are probably the ones who thought that the Pound would always be worth at least 70 Baht.

Good on yer! But maybe we can review this in a year?

There are massive differences between the last recession and this depression.

- the overall level of debt is much much bigger

- the creators of wealth, the manufacturers, who could help a recovery, have substantially relocated to cheaper countries. Look at the most recent example, Dell.

- the word "globalisation" was unknown

And to address a few specific points

- I doubt whether you will be dabbling in the property market and making money. The "buy to lets" lot are now in the "buy and lose it" group.

- if 45% are financially OK, how about the other 55% of profligate bsatrds now requiring YOU to pay their debts? How much of your "secure stash" will remain after Brown has introduced hyperinflation? And don't forget, all these bankrupt gits can no longer afford to buy goods other than the basics, so how many of the 45% jobs are secure?

- and now add in all the underfunded pension schemes, and the national pension, and the civil service pensions which are all to be funded by YOUR tax money.

- and then add in the bailouts to keep the banks running. This is all YOUR money heading down the pan.

- and then add in the 25% of the workforce employed in the civil service. You have 1/4 of a civil servant on your back for the rest of your life.

This is now a totally different situation. It is a GLOBAL crisis, not some itsy bitsy UK recession of the 70's. You only have to look at the figures being bandied around, we are now up to trillions.

And all those who reckon that it is some "background noise" are in for a HUGE awakening, as 150 decibels of FINANCIAL CRISIS hits them.

Just a point of clarification, I have never been in that group that dabbled in buy to let, I always preferred to make my money in other ways - that's an important distinction to make here because it further characterizes the two groups.

The fact that scale and scope of this recession is larger than anything most of us have witnessed in our lives doesn't change much for me, neither does the fact that it's a global recession, it simply means that all the global bubbles are going to deflate at around the same time rather than in the past where one bubble deflated and then quickly re inflated to continue the race! Maybe this time the dam_n bubble will remain flat! Think about the depression in the US in the 1930's, what happened then was that large parts of American society continued to function well and indeed, many people actually thrived - I expect something similar in the UK.

But in order to dismiss your arguments let's look at a case study, me: I'm going to continue to sit here in Thailand with my few years of Thai Baht in the bank and I'm going to continue to enjoy life and to do all I can to avoid a heart attack caused by worrying about these things. In the meantime, my savings will continue to sit in a range of banks, earning reasonable interest at present and in a range of currencies. Within a year my interest income will be reduced and I may have to settle for 2% or similar or indeed, I may have to start to eat into my capital - but in Thailand that's not going to cost me very much. At some point in the next two/three years interest rates will increase again and/or other investment opportunities will become apparent - my pensions from the UK, US and private funds will kick in at various points over the next seven years so I will have new income streams, so what if the payouts on these funds turn out to be less than I thought, my principle is still in tact. At some point in the next two years UK property will bottom and I will almost certainly buy a home in the UK, not as an investment but as a place to live for six months each year - that should be a UK that is a much cheaper place to live than it is now. In a nutshell, I'm feeling pretty robust about my financial future because I have diversified, I have saved, I have been prudent and I have not taken risks with my retirement (which is looming) - most importantly I think, I have not speculated and I have always had a backup plan. If it seems that I'm bragging or gloating here I am not - I've set all of this out because I want you to consider how many people there are who are in a similar situation to me, there are loads, statistically at least 45% of the UK population and more likely something approaching 80/90%. All the noise we hear on the subject of recession is from people feeling pain or those who are afraid, you rarely hear noise from those people who are not affected.

[12DrinkMore]

But in order to dismiss your arguments let's look at a case study, me: I'm going to continue to sit here in Thailand with my few years of Thai Baht in the bank and I'm going to continue to enjoy life and to do all I can to avoid a heart attack caused by worrying about these things. In the meantime, my savings will continue to sit in a range of banks, earning reasonable interest at present and in a range of currencies. Within a year my interest income will be reduced and I may have to settle for 2% or similar or indeed, I may have to start to eat into my capital - but in Thailand that's not going to cost me very much. At some point in the next two/three years interest rates will increase again and/or other investment opportunities will become apparent - my pensions from the UK, US and private funds will kick in at various points over the next seven years so I will have new income streams, so what if the payouts on these funds turn out to be less than I thought, my principle is still in tact. At some point in the next two years UK property will bottom and I will almost certainly buy a home in the UK, not as an investment but as a place to live for six months each year - that should be a UK that is a much cheaper place to live than it is now. In a nutshell, I'm feeling pretty robust about my financial future because I have diversified, I have saved, I have been prudent and I have not taken risks with my retirement (which is looming) - most importantly I think, I have not speculated and I have always had a backup plan. If it seems that I'm bragging or gloating here I am not - I've set all of this out because I want you to consider how many people there are who are in a similar situation to me, there are loads, statistically at least 45% of the UK population and more likely something approaching 80/90%. All the noise we hear on the subject of recession is from people feeling pain or those who are afraid, you rarely hear noise from those people who are not affected.

I am in exactly the same position. In fact, I thought I must have written that!

Doesn't stop me watching and worrying though.

[chiang mai]

But in order to dismiss your arguments let's look at a case study, me: I'm going to continue to sit here in Thailand with my few years of Thai Baht in the bank and I'm going to continue to enjoy life and to do all I can to avoid a heart attack caused by worrying about these things. In the meantime, my savings will continue to sit in a range of banks, earning reasonable interest at present and in a range of currencies. Within a year my interest income will be reduced and I may have to settle for 2% or similar or indeed, I may have to start to eat into my capital - but in Thailand that's not going to cost me very much. At some point in the next two/three years interest rates will increase again and/or other investment opportunities will become apparent - my pensions from the UK, US and private funds will kick in at various points over the next seven years so I will have new income streams, so what if the payouts on these funds turn out to be less than I thought, my principle is still in tact. At some point in the next two years UK property will bottom and I will almost certainly buy a home in the UK, not as an investment but as a place to live for six months each year - that should be a UK that is a much cheaper place to live than it is now. In a nutshell, I'm feeling pretty robust about my financial future because I have diversified, I have saved, I have been prudent and I have not taken risks with my retirement (which is looming) - most importantly I think, I have not speculated and I have always had a backup plan. If it seems that I'm bragging or gloating here I am not - I've set all of this out because I want you to consider how many people there are who are in a similar situation to me, there are loads, statistically at least 45% of the UK population and more likely something approaching 80/90%. All the noise we hear on the subject of recession is from people feeling pain or those who are afraid, you rarely hear noise from those people who are not affected.

I am in exactly the same position. In fact, I thought I must have written that!

Doesn't stop me watching and worrying though.

OK, I understand where you're coming from much better now. I'd got the idea previously that you were viewing yourself as being hard done by by the system whereas you, like all of us, are simply very nervous of what could happen, that's makes the answer much easier. If you've taken all the sensible steps to protect yourself thus far, realize there's not too much more you can do, you therefore need to keep watching but worrying? It's not worth it.

[ArranP]

I am a buy-to-let investor with a number of properties and I'm not so sure its as bad as some people are making it out to be, but I suppose it depends on what your time-horizon is. I have all my properties on BOE base rate trackers which are doing very well at the moment from a monthly income perspective as you can imagine with interest rates where they are.

From a capital appreciation perspective, I do not plan to sell any of them for at least 20 years from now, when they probably will be worth more than they are now or a year or so ago.

That said the only concern I have is if interest rates rise sufficiently so that the rents no longer cover the interest payments or tenants loose their job and can no longer pay their rent.

Regards diversifcation I am invested in other areas which provide a significant return and have an income from contracting.

Edited February 14, 2009 by ArranP

[Chaimai]

Doesn't stop me watching and worrying though.

Yes it does !

If your position is as secure as you suggest then you are serving no use to yourself, or others, by giving the impression that you ARE concerned and adding fuel to the flames of fear.

Enjoy your position and do more meaningful things with your time. In some ways your guilt is worse than others because you can say "Oh look the sky is falling in.....BUT, I am OK"

[ace]

Globalisation has negated the possibility of a nation devaluing its currency to maintain exports. It is now down to efficiency and producing a product at a price that is globally competitive. Give me an example of a UK product that meets that requirement.

GSK, RR

But there's not much true. I think the UK government bonds are selling quite well, better than a lot of EU member's.

FWIW I think Uk will do quite well. In about 10 years time.

[ace]

Globalisation has negated the possibility of a nation devaluing its currency to maintain exports. It is now down to efficiency and producing a product at a price that is globally competitive. Give me an example of a UK product that meets that requirement.

GSK, RR

But there's not much true. I think the UK government bonds are selling quite well, better than a lot of EU member's.

FWIW I think Uk will do quite well. In about 10 years time.

[chiang mai]

Doesn't stop me watching and worrying though.

Yes it does !

If your position is as secure as you suggest then you are serving no use to yourself, or others, by giving the impression that you ARE concerned and adding fuel to the flames of fear.

Enjoy your position and do more meaningful things with your time. In some ways your guilt is worse than others because you can say "Oh look the sky is falling in.....BUT, I am OK"

Nunc est bibendum

[BigSnake]

Sounds crazy but I would mind the Baht a 52 to the dollars, yeah right SWEET dreams

[Chaimai]

Nunc est bibendum

CM - the full quote is probably more appropriate:-

Nunc est bibendum, nunc pede libero pulsanda tellus.

[chiang mai]

Nunc est bibendum

CM - the full quote is probably more appropriate:-

Nunc est bibendum, nunc pede libero pulsanda tellus.

I like your sister but she has snails on her bum?

[12DrinkMore]

Doesn't stop me watching and worrying though.

Yes it does !

If your position is as secure as you suggest then you are serving no use to yourself, or others, by giving the impression that you ARE concerned and adding fuel to the flames of fear.

Enjoy your position and do more meaningful things with your time. In some ways your guilt is worse than others because you can say "Oh look the sky is falling in.....BUT, I am OK"

Actually I don't know if my position is secure. And that is the big worry.

I have money with a number of banks. But as far as I can tell, only the Thai banks are looking solid

I have money in several countries. But they are all massively into deficit budgets and bailouts :D Will they default? Will hyperinflation take off, destroying our savings with it?

Money that was invested in Icelandic banks is now in limbo and probably lost :jerk:

18 months ago all was very fine. Now the future is uncertain. And I reckon the best way of spending a few hours every day is to read the news, follow up on economics and try to understand how this will all pan out. The crisis is developing INCREDIBLY quickly, and I need to be able to move fast. I probably have much more stress than somebody with property and an income stream from a pension, because in that situation there is not much more to do than sit back, enjoy the moment and pray a bit.

And what guilt am I supposed to have? All my life I have been very cautious with my money, the only debt I had was a mortgage in the UK at 2.5 times my salary, and only then after saving every penny to put up the 10% deposit that the bank required. The guilt lies with all the greedy bankers, politicians and credit junkies, who needed everything today and pay on the never never. I can remember saving up my pocket money for week after week in order to buy an LP to play on my hi-fi system which had taken me some six months to save for.

So, I am very concerned about this whole mess, in which I, personally, have played no part in creating. Indeed I have suffered substantial losses, wiping out several years of savings, money which I will never have again. I feel very angry about this.

The guilt lies with the politicians and bankers of the last eight years, who have issued credit at far too cheap rates and allowed the banks to create the biggest roulette wheel in the universe, using our money as bets and taking huge bonuses because they have made a few lucky rolls.

And am I really adding fuel to the flames of fear? All I am doing is posting a few links and drawing conclusions. Maybe you could try to put a a few links with some optimism, which I will be very happy to read, as I cannot find anything at the moment. And then give us an alternative option to discuss?

[Chaimai]

Doesn't stop me watching and worrying though.

Yes it does !

If your position is as secure as you suggest then you are serving no use to yourself, or others, by giving the impression that you ARE concerned and adding fuel to the flames of fear.

Enjoy your position and do more meaningful things with your time. In some ways your guilt is worse than others because you can say "Oh look the sky is falling in.....BUT, I am OK"

Actually I don't know if my position is secure. And that is the big worry.

I have money with a number of banks. But as far as I can tell, only the Thai banks are looking solid

I have money in several countries. But they are all massively into deficit budgets and bailouts Will they default? Will hyperinflation take off, destroying our savings with it?

Money that was invested in Icelandic banks is now in limbo and probably lost :jerk:

18 months ago all was very fine. Now the future is uncertain. And I reckon the best way of spending a few hours every day is to read the news, follow up on economics and try to understand how this will all pan out. The crisis is developing INCREDIBLY quickly, and I need to be able to move fast. I probably have much more stress than somebody with property and an income stream from a pension, because in that situation there is not much more to do than sit back, enjoy the moment and pray a bit.

And what guilt am I supposed to have? All my life I have been very cautious with my money, the only debt I had was a mortgage in the UK at 2.5 times my salary, and only then after saving every penny to put up the 10% deposit that the bank required. The guilt lies with all the greedy bankers, politicians and credit junkies, who needed everything today and pay on the never never. I can remember saving up my pocket money for week after week in order to buy an LP to play on my hi-fi system which had taken me some six months to save for.

So, I am very concerned about this whole mess, in which I, personally, have played no part in creating. Indeed I have suffered substantial losses, wiping out several years of savings, money which I will never have again. I feel very angry about this.

The guilt lies with the politicians and bankers of the last eight years, who have issued credit at far too cheap rates and allowed the banks to create the biggest roulette wheel in the universe, using our money as bets and taking huge bonuses because they have made a few lucky rolls.

And am I really adding fuel to the flames of fear? All I am doing is posting a few links and drawing conclusions. Maybe you could try to put a a few links with some optimism, which I will be very happy to read, as I cannot find anything at the moment. And then give us an alternative option to discuss?

I firmly agree with you where the blame lies. However, if you are reading a balanced view of what is happening - and I doubt very much that you are - then you will observe Chiang Mai's point that a large part of the world still goes on and many people are unaffected or relatively unaffected by all this cr4p.

You need to decide exactly which camp you are in. You previously said that you were in exactly the same position as Chiang Mai - now you are saying that you have suffered substantial losses. If you have been as prudent as you suggest then your deposits will be covered by government guarantees so I am not sure where your savings have been 'wiped out' ?

Can't give you any links for optimism - as I said, the recovery is some way off. But, rest assured, it will be there. The light at the end of the tunnel is at an unquantifiable distance, but it is there. Believe in it and bring some cheer into your life. My own plans have been set back 2 years but there <deleted> all I can do about that other than work hard and look out for genuine opportunities that might replenish the pot. I am certainly not going to waste my time reading sensationalist (mis)reporting of events.

[Chaimai]

Nunc est bibendum

CM - the full quote is probably more appropriate:-

Nunc est bibendum, nunc pede libero pulsanda tellus.

I like your sister but she has snails on her bum?

The one I read said "Now is the time for drinking, now is the time for dancing footloose upon the earth!"

[12DrinkMore]

I firmly agree with you where the blame lies. However, if you are reading a balanced view of what is happening - and I doubt very much that you are - then you will observe Chiang Mai's point that a large part of the world still goes on and many people are unaffected or relatively unaffected by all this cr4p.

Although there may be many people unaffected by it, I think it is naive to think that the problem is not incredibly vast and getting worse on a daily basis. Lloyds is bankrupt, the Royal Bank of Scotland is bankrupt, Northern Rock is bankrupt, Iceland is bankrupt, Lehman no longer exists, Madoff, former chairman of NASDAQ takes 50,000,000,000 USD down the pan in his Ponzi scheme. Just a few examples of unprecedented failures that have occured in the last 18 months.

If you can point me to a balanced view that shows me where companies are starting up and making successes instead of reading everyday about new lay-offs, or even just one report that is not INCREASING the forecast contraction in GDP then please give it to me.

You need to decide exactly which camp you are in. You previously said that you were in exactly the same position as Chiang Mai - now you are saying that you have suffered substantial losses. If you have been as prudent as you suggest then your deposits will be covered by government guarantees so I am not sure where your savings have been 'wiped out' ?

Try looking at Landsbanki, Guernsey. These depositors have lost 70% of their savings with nobody bailing them out.

http://info.landsbankiaction.org.gg/

Can't give you any links for optimism

come on, just one, please. Here is another from the long list of gloomy forecasts that I can give you.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle5728797.ece

Alistair Darling, the Chancellor, defended his role in helping to push through the takeover, saying: “We had a matter of days and then hours to stop the entire banking system collapsing

so catch that one, Darling, the MAN AT THE TOP, is stating that they were just HOURS away from the entire banking system collapsing.

or try this one

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle5728797.ece

Jon Moulton, the private equity chief, warned a City lunch this week that he feared serious civil unrest. There was, he said, a 25 per cent chance of one of the 15 member countries of the eurozone pulling out of the currency club. That, he said, would be a catastrophic shock leading to a “far greater financial crisis” than the current one.

- as I said, the recovery is some way off. But, rest assured, it will be there. The light at the end of the tunnel is at an unquantifiable distance, but it is there. Believe in it and bring some cheer into your life. My own plans have been set back 2 years but there <deleted> all I can do about that other than work hard and look out for genuine opportunities that might replenish the pot.

Many many people have had their dreams destroyed and many more will. Note that Brown has made moves to remove the legal retirement age, so that you can't be forced into retirement at 64. Why? Surely he is not thinking that the pension schemes cannot pay out?

I am certainly not going to waste my time reading sensationalist (mis)reporting of events.

I can only repeat the above quote from the Chancellor.

Alistair Darling, the Chancellor, defended his role in helping to push through the takeover, saying: “We had a matter of days and then hours to stop the entire banking system collapsing

When is the next time he will say that?

Or worse, is it possible that he will stand up and say that it has finally collapsed?

Sorry, but there is no smoke without fire, as they say, and in this case I can see the flames raging and the extinguishers are not functioning.