Us Dollar Came To The Gunfight With A Knife

[expatinasia]

In the June 27, 2005 issue of “Newsweek”, Jeffrey E. Garten (dean of the Yale School of Management) provided his opinion in the article “The Almighty Dollar is Back”. Too, the article gives a very clear summary of how the global economy works...

“Until a few weeks ago, the dollar bull was a rare animal. Most currency watchers thought the dollar was in long-term decline, due to rising U.S. trade and budget deficits. The only question the majority seriously entertained was whether the decline could become a crash, if foreign financiers began to tire of supporting U.S. borrowing, and did so in a stampede.

“Yet since January the dollar has risen 12 percent against the euro, and 7 percent against the yen. A growing number of dollar bears are turning bullish, and I'm one of them. This may be the start of something big. For three reasons, we may be seeing a fundamental shift with enormous implications for the United States and the world.

“First, for global investors looking for long-term value and security, there is now no real alternative to the dollar. The euro used to be the key option, but after the recent French and Dutch vetos of the proposed constitution for the European Union, there is talk among financial officers that the agreements that underlie the euro itself may be shaky. Neither the Japanese yen nor the Chinese renmenbi is even close to being a major alternative to the dollar. The truth about these Asian giants is that their stock and bond markets are too weak to attract major funds from around the world.

“Second, France, Germany, and Italy have been stuck fro years with anemic growth and double-digit employment. They have demonstrated no political will to restructure their economies for global competition, and there is a good chance that the European Central Bank will be strong-armed into lowering interest rates. This could occur at the same time as the U.S. Fed continues to increase American rates. The differential will make America much more attractive to foreign lenders.

“Third, Asian governments are unlikely to give up their mercantilist policies, which rely on cheap currencies to stimulate exports. Asians use their enormous savings, denominated in their own currencies, to buy dollars. This drives down the value of the yen and the won, and holds up the greenback. They accumulate billions of dollars, which they then lend to the United States so Americans can buy Asian exports. It's increasingly clear that Asian lenders - particularly central banks that now account for about 70 percent of foreign loans to the United States --- don't sem to mind holding U.S. debt as long as the American economy is expanding, which seems likely for the foreseeable future.

“An ever stronger dollar would delay the arrival of a global monetary system with two or three major currencies at its center. This has been the prediction of most international economists ever since the post World War II recovery of Japan and Germany. Now there is likely to be a totally different model - a world dominated by the dollar in ways not seen since the early 1950s. At first, with confidence in the dollar mounting, more foreigners would invest in U.S. bonds and stocks, pushing the greenback even higher. It would keep interest rates low, possibly encouraging another long business boom. American firms would be on the prowl for acquisitions abroad, because they would be cheap.

“But a strong dollar would also undercut U.S. exports, increase U.S. imports and therefore widen the trade deficit - now approaching $700 billion a year - and run up the foreign debt, already close to $3 trillion. U.S. firms could well accelerate the outsourcing of jobs abroad, where costs would be falling in dollar terms.

“The increase in purchasing power would make America a richer and more powerful nation. Because the U.S. would be borrowing in dollars, and repaying those debts in dollars, it would occur no currency risk, as every other country does. This privileged position means that America could become an even more undisciplined debtor - a scary thought.

“In a world where the dollar is supreme, Uncle Sam should be more responsible for international financial stability, not less. There would be an increasingly compelling argument that the Federal Reserve should see itself as a global central bank, and the Congress and White House should see U.S. trade and financial policy as keys to global stability, not tools to further U.S. interests. On a recent visit to Yale, the mayor of Beijing said - only half jokingly - that it would make sense if the whole world had a vote in American elections, because U.S. decisions have so large an impact worldwide.

“When historians look back on this period they may well give more weight to the power that a one-currency wotld conferred on the United States than that granted by our men and women in uniform, serving in Afghanistan and Iraq. But whether Washington will recognize the responsibility that comes with this power - well, that will be the big question.

[TokyoT]

On a recent visit to Yale, the mayor of Beijing said - only half jokingly - that it would make sense if the whole world had a vote in American elections, because U.S. decisions have so large an impact worldwide.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Off topic a bit but I have to comment.

Oh that’s a classic - the mayor of Beijing commenting in anyway about anyone getting the right to vote anywhere.

[MattFS218]

I highly doubt the USD is going to remain the king of currencies. One interesting note about the current rise in the Dollar is the parellel rise in gold. Historically gold is a safe haven for a shaky reserve currency...when the dollar falls, gold rises and visa-versa.

However this time around gold is also rising with the dollar...leading me to believe the dollar is no longer supreme...Gold is rising because of the shakyness of the euro...

[simcity]

I highly doubt the USD is going to remain the king of currencies. One interesting note about the current rise in the Dollar is the parellel rise in gold. Historically gold is a safe haven for a shaky reserve currency...when the dollar falls, gold rises and visa-versa.

However this time around gold is also rising with the dollar...leading me to believe the dollar is no longer supreme...Gold is rising because of the shakyness of the euro...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That must be because so many people think the rise of the dollar is factice and manipulated.

The dollar start to fire when the talk about the revaluation of the Chinese Yuan start and when the NO of the Europe happen the value increase a lot.

Many currencies as been the same against the US dollar.

The Thai bath are at lost , and the euro .

The Thai economy are waking up , with problem about low tourist / cost of the petrol / south killing / dengue fever and more .

The Euro was to high anyway !

[Harmonica]

Look Ma, now the dummies are hating the euro -- aren't they just plain fickle?

Euro is widely blamed for the EU’s troubles, and Italians & other cats in Euroland (or is it Lalaland?) even want to go off the euro altogether.

[Maka]

Look Ma, now the dummies are hating the euro -- aren't they just plain fickle?

Euro is widely blamed for the EU’s troubles, and  Italians & other cats in Euroland (or is it Lalaland?) even want to go off the euro altogether. 

 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yes they are ..fickle

Nothing better when your in a fight (especially if you dont got a knife) than have the enemy fighting among themselves. Helps achieve your objectives a lot quicker.

Of course a savy warrior would have anticiated this sort of behavior before even getting into the fight huh?

[Harmonica]

Just visiting ..... visit #1:

This has been the weaponry used by the Dollar since December 30th, when he rose from the ashes, revisited his resolve, put on his armor, ate breakfast and went to battle.

-------------------------------------------

But now we are at a new plateau, a new transition phase -- new weaponry is required for the 2nd half of this year; here is a scene that only I was privy to -- it has not happened yet; its in the future -- but he's my friend and he showed it to me.

He is the  lone gunfighter towards the rear of the picture.  Standing before him are the Euro, the Australian dollar and the Swiss franc.

The 3 currencies rode in to the scene on horseback.

He (USD) asks the Euro, "did you bring a horse for me?"

Chuckling and scoffing, the Euro replies, "no, looks like we're shy one horse!"

Shaking his head in disagreement USD replies, "no, you've brought two too many!"

The draw starts and all 3 get taken out!

God help me, but isn't that picture just sheer poetry? Sybaritic splendor exponentialized!

Ahhhhhhhhh!!! Lord, if you're going to open the floodgates, kindly remember that I was quite content with just a trickle-- I live in LOS and have already given up the "heady" stuff I used to revel in -- besides, you don't want to drown me in wherewithal now, do you?

Don't answer that, Lord!

[Harmonica]

Just in case you fellas have not been paying attention, the Dollar has been correcting since July 8th. The USD Index hit a high of 90.66 on that day & then reversed into correction mode.

On my Dollar chart I had market out the 89.27 level as being its first test. It has arrived and run smack into it and is battling the forces that comprise that resistance.

Supremely interesting and coincidence-laden (Technical analysis does provide such in abundance) is the fact that he ran into this trouble @ exactly the 23.6% retracement level (of the entire drop from 2001).

I'm just thoughting here, OK -- see that red arrow in the lower right hand of the bottom panel? Also note the black uptrendline and the light orange line.

As momentum (the light blue line) is descending towards these lines, it will be interesting to see whether there is ignition and USD, in the top panel, therefore rockets upwards?

Just speculating?

[~G~]

I assume that the dotted red line in the lower panel is a short term moving average of the momentum?

And the orange line - a resistence/support for the momentum?

Why did you place it on the 2 peaks of the moving average rather then on the peaks of the momentum itself?

Placed on top of the momentum means it needs to struggle with this line sooner, isn't it?

Edited July 19, 2005 by ~G~

[Harmonica]

I assume that the dotted red line in the lower panel is a short term moving average of the momentum?

And the orange line - a resistence/support for the momentum?

Why did you place it on the 2 peaks of the moving average rather then on the peaks of the momentum itself?

Placed on top of the momentum means it needs to struggle with this line sooner, isn't it?

The indicator shown is the MACD (12,26,9).

Correct, the dotted red line in the lower panel is the 9 period MA of the MACD.

The orange line touches the tops of 3 or 4 peaks of the MACD and not the signal line (dotted red line) to the extreme left of the graph (not visible) -- this line, when extended to the right then gets penetrated by the 2 peaks shown before the breakout. It does touch the red dotted line, but that is by coincidence only (unless of course I discover some further hidden meaning therein )

Just to confirm, yes the line should be drawn to touch the MACD and not the signal line.

[Harmonica]

I assume that the dotted red line in the lower panel is a short term moving average of the momentum?

And the orange line - a resistence/support for the momentum?

Why did you place it on the 2 peaks of the moving average rather then on the peaks of the momentum itself?

Placed on top of the momentum means it needs to struggle with this line sooner, isn't it?

The indicator shown is the MACD (12,26,9).

Correct, the dotted red line in the lower panel is the 9 period MA of the MACD.

The orange line touches the tops of 3 or 4 peaks of the MACD and not the signal line (dotted red line) to the extreme left of the graph (not visible) -- this line, when extended to the right then gets penetrated by the 2 peaks shown before the breakout. It does touch the red dotted line, but that is by coincidence only (unless of course I discover some further hidden meaning therein )

Just to confirm, yes the line should be drawn to touch the MACD and not the signal line.

US Dollar Index's correction continues and the momentum line shown above is still descending en route to making contact with the orange line!

Hehehehe, the suspense is deafening, eh?

[Harmonica]

Get your tickets early for the next show -- battle #2 is either in motion or will get underway soon.

The United States Dollar has been in a correction since July 8 -- a few more days of action will confirm whether this current correction is a short-term one or whether we are going into deeper southern territory.

But the whiff and clamour of MORONS has already started!

So I am getting ready for phase 2 -- more experts are going to get killed -- but this time they will get whipsawed magnificently! When the big correction starts/completes I will be there once again to call the next big northbound surge! Count on it!

Place your bets now! Send the checks to George!

[Harmonica]

But first, for entertainment purposes only, remember this? .......

back in December last year,

The consensus among investors and economists was bearish the Dollar to the point that nearly every commentator took further dollar collapse for granted, as if it were a fact of nature. Never have so many among the US public placed so many aggressive bets against the dollar . After the fact everyone seems to forget the intensity of the erroneous general conviction at the turn.

Bearish sentiment against the $ was so entrenched that on april 5th, 4 whole months after the bottom and a few weeks after the test of the low in March, The New York Times ran an unsigned editorial -- meaning that it was the opinion of the newspaper's board -- saying, "The recent rally of the United States Dollar notwithstanding, the greenback has nowhere to go but down. The dollar's current uptick is just a breather in its overall downward trajectory. The dollar is heading down, no matter what" That is some emphatic language! This type of extreme commentary was all over the magazines, newspapers, the Internet etc.

And Warren Buffet made at least 3 appearances wherein he badmouthed the economy and the dollar to such an extent that he scared the daylights out of any sane person listening.

But all I hoy-d was Bobby's song,

And take me disappearing thru' the smoke rings of my mind

Down the foggy ruins of time

Far past the frozen leaves

The haunted, frightened trees

Up to the windy beach

Silhouetted by the sea

Circled by the circus sands

Far from the twisted reach of crazy sorrow!

[Butterfly]

Not so fast. Dead cat bouncing ? technical rebound ?

With the Iraq mess getting nowhere, the US credibility and credit rating is not improving.

I think the recent rally of the dollars is due to a stop of the EURO speculative growth. Things are not so rosy over in Europe, and things are not so bad over in the US. However, things could get worse in the US and then if the dollar crash, there will be no end to it.

Didn't China just stop supporting the dollar with his new "basket of currency" policy ?

[britmaveric]

Harmonica = all these scare tactics are amusing. I hope they keep it up - dollar is growing stronger. Perhaps there is a method in their madness?

Butterfy - trust me $ isnt going to crash, if it does the whole world will be deep shi*e. China is moving away from currency control - probably take decades. However that being said this is good - means chinese goods will be back in line with the rest of the world.

[Butterfly]

Harmonica = all these scare tactics are amusing. I hope they keep it up - dollar is growing stronger. Perhaps there is a method in their madness?

Butterfy - trust me $ isnt going to crash, if it does the whole world will be deep shi*e. China is moving away from currency control - probably take decades. However that being said this is good - means chinese goods will be back in line with the rest of the world.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Wishful thinking? I am paid in dollars so obviously I don't want it to sink. However, I do think it's inevitable. Wait until OPEC start quoting barrels in Euro and we are doomed.

The dollar is being maitained artificially. We are in 1997 scenario with the Thai Baht. When it's going to happen, it's not getting to be pretty, and yes everybody will loose. Even the Euro fags with their mighty Euros. Their export will stop unless everyone switch to the EURO.

[Blake7]

Good to see the butterfly back - where have you been?

[britmaveric]

Butterfy - Opec doesnt have the &lt;deleted&gt; to do that. Remember Yanks can pressure in other ways and Opec knows this.

[Butterfly]

Butterfy - Opec doesnt have the &lt;deleted&gt; to do that. Remember Yanks can pressure in other ways and Opec knows this.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Agree. With the Bush admin so deep in Saudi Arabia panties, you bet it's not going to happen anytime soon. But, some events could speed things up, some extraordinaire event (drastic change of power in SA ?). SA is a powerful member of OPEC. But Iran and Venezuela would love to boycott Uncle Sam and provoke another 1970s style oil crisis. We are not there yet, but the possibility could be there. The only good news is that the Bush admin is so weak and so entrenched into Domestic and International trouble, there is not much they can do to piss off the wrong people. They pissed off 99% of the planet already. So I think it's safe to say that everything has been priced in already.

Edited July 26, 2005 by Butterfly

[britmaveric]

Yanks have tremendous amounts of oil - easily stop selling abroad and use it for domestic use.

Better yet - stop using oil all together. Make oil worthless - which in any event will come at some point in the near future.

[Butterfly]

Yanks have tremendous amounts of oil - easily stop selling abroad and use it for domestic use.

Better yet - stop using oil all together. Make oil worthless - which in any event will come at some point in the near future.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Actually it's more complex than that. Oil from ME is cheaper and of better quality and easier to process.

Same as the Thais. They have oil but they export it to their poor neighboors and import the better quality one for their internal consumption.

World peace could be achieved by finding real alternatives to oil. Not going to happen with a corrupt administration. Oh well, we could always keep dreaming.

[Harmonica]

Just a reminder to all you geniuses

China got a taste of "worthlessness" on the 21st when the Dollar sank on the release of the news about the Yuan -- but then promptly came back up like a bat out of ######.

Then the Dollar whacked both the Yen and his old mistress, the Baht -- clearly visible today.

Let's give it a few more days to see if the Yuan effect has any residual surprise?

As for the Saudis and the oil region, Uncle George has already stolen Iraq's stash. If he gets in a bad mood on any given day, he might just invade Saudi Arabia and make it the 53rd ( ) state.

Butterfly, what is AE? .... American Express?

[britmaveric]

EOS - Witty as usual!!

[Harmonica]

Get your tickets early for the next show -- battle #2 is either in motion or will get underway soon.

The United States Dollar has been in a correction since July 8 -- a few more days of action will confirm whether this current correction is a short-term one or whether we are going into deeper southern territory.

But the whiff and clamour of MORONS has already started!   

So I am getting ready for phase 2 -- more experts are going to get killed -- but this time they will get whipsawed magnificently!  When the big correction starts/completes I will be there once again to call the next big northbound surge!  Count on it!   

Place your bets now!  Send the checks to George!     

Get ready for sparks!

He was overheard chiding his gal, Miss Thai Baht ...

People’d call, say, beware doll, you’re bound to fall

You thought they were all kiddin’ you

You used to laugh about

Everybody that was hangin’ out

Now you don’t talk so loud

Now you don’t seem so proud

About having to be scrounging for your next meal .

You’ve gone to the finest school all right, miss lonely

But you know you only used to get juiced in it

And nobody has ever taught you how to live on the street

And now you find out you’re gonna have to get used to it

You said you’d never compromise

With the mystery tramp, but now you realize

He’s not selling any alibis

As you stare into the vacuum of his eyes

And ask him do you want to make a deal?

You never turned around to see the frowns on the jugglers and the clowns

When they all come down and did tricks for you in 1997

You never understood that it ain’t no good

You shouldn’t let other people get your kicks for you

You used to ride on the chrome horse with your diplomat

Who carried on his shoulder a siamese cat

Ain’t it hard when you discover that

He really wasn’t where it’s at

After he took from you everything he could steal .

When you ain't got nothing, you got nothing to lose

You’re invisible now, you've got no secrets to conceal.

[Harmonica]

Give credit where and when it is due -- Euro put on a dazling show yesterday when he shot past 1.23 and closed @ 1.2361. Heck, he even jumped past a trendline.

He has courage, I'll give him that -- and he is a good fighter to boot.

I respect him but will not go against my buddy, the $.

[quiggs]

The only people I hear talking about quoting barrels of oil in Euros, is Europeans.

Harmonica = all these scare tactics are amusing. I hope they keep it up - dollar is growing stronger. Perhaps there is a method in their madness?

Butterfy - trust me $ isnt going to crash, if it does the whole world will be deep shi*e. China is moving away from currency control - probably take decades. However that being said this is good - means chinese goods will be back in line with the rest of the world.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Wishful thinking? I am paid in dollars so obviously I don't want it to sink. However, I do think it's inevitable. Wait until OPEC start quoting barrels in Euro and we are doomed.

The dollar is being maitained artificially. We are in 1997 scenario with the Thai Baht. When it's going to happen, it's not getting to be pretty, and yes everybody will loose. Even the Euro fags with their mighty Euros. Their export will stop unless everyone switch to the EURO.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

[Harmonica]

Get your tickets early for the next show -- battle #2 is either in motion or will get underway soon.

The United States Dollar has been in a correction since July 8 -- a few more days of action will confirm whether this current correction is a short-term one or whether we are going into deeper southern territory.

But the whiff and clamour of MORONS has already started!   

So I am getting ready for phase 2 -- more experts are going to get killed -- but this time they will get whipsawed magnificently!  When the big correction starts/completes I will be there once again to call the next big northbound surge!  Count on it!   

Place your bets now!  Send the checks to George!     

Unless 90.40 is taken out by the Dollar Index, we are still in correction mode -- and as mentioned in the quote above, it is turning out to be a long duration (relatively) type correction.

Doesn't matter really because I'm still holding only USD and waiting for the dominant trend to return.

I've added another dimension though; I'm trading Euro vs Dollar and Dollar vs Yen on a shorter term basis, sometimes holding for 5-10 days; playing LONG & SHORT. But the bulk remains in USD for a medium-term hold, only this time, from now henceforth, it is earning the differential Interest rate inherent to currencies.

But it is easy to see how, even in correction mode, the Dollar continues to confound, thwart and mock expert fundamental analysts by the thousands, hehehe.

God, do I love it so!

[susah_sih]

Standard Chartered Advises Investors to Sell Baht (Update1)

2005-12-06 00:50 (New York)

(Updates baht prices against rupiah in fourth paragraph.)

By Christina Soon

Dec. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Standard Chartered Bank's Callum

Henderson recommends investors sell the Thai baht against the

Indonesian rupiah after Thailand's export growth slowed.

The baht fell 4.5 percent against the dollar in the first 10

months of the year amid a widening deficit in the current account,

which is a broad measure of trade that includes income from

investment and services. The country had a trade shortfall in

October as exports grew the least since February.

``Potentially, the Thai baht in the very short term has room

to weaken,'' Henderson, head of currency strategy at Standard

Chartered in Singapore, said in an interview yesterday.

``Thailand's recent trade number was worse than expected. It was

clearly a negative surprise.''

Each baht bought 239.85 rupiah at 12:42 p.m. in Bangkok and

may fetch 220.82 rupiah in six months, Henderson said.

By contrast, expectations that Indonesia will keep increasing

interest rates may draw investors seeking higher returns,

Henderson said. Raising borrowing costs will deter spending and

investment, keeping inflation at bay.

Bank Indonesia will today increase its benchmark interest

rate by a quarter-percentage point, the sixth time it has boosted

rates in four months, after inflation jumped to a six-year high in

November, according to a Bloomberg News survey.

The BI rate, a reference for bill sales, may be shifted to

13.25 percent from 12.25 percent, according to the median forecast

of 10 economists.

`Some Carry'

Thailand's central bank on Oct. 19 increased the 14-day bond

repurchase rate to 3.75 percent from 3.25 percent, the highest

since the bank adopted an inflation-targeting policy in May 2000.

``You can gain some carry by being long the rupiah'' against

the baht, Henderson said. ``Inflation remains high and continues

to strengthen. Further policy tightening is needed.'' A long

position is one that bets on a currency rising and carry is the

cost of financing positions with borrowed funds.

Indonesia's key rate may rise to 14.25 percent by the first

quarter of 2006, he said.

Inflation in Indonesia accelerated a more-than-expected 18.4

percent from a year ago in November, the fastest since June 1999,

Choiril Maksum, director at the Central Statistics Office, said on

Dec. 1.

Standard Chartered joined Merrill Lynch & Co. in its call for

investors to sell the baht amid concern the Southeast Asian

country will next year fail to address the growing current-account

deficit.

``We no longer like the baht,'' Singapore-based Simon Flint,

head of emerging Asia currency strategy at Merrill Lynch, said in

an interview on Dec. 1. ``Emerging markets with current-account

deficits will tend to do relatively badly.''

Oil Prices

A record shortfall of $14 billion in 1996 forced Thailand

within a year to abandon the baht's peg to the dollar and allow

the currency to float, triggering the 1997-1998 Asian financial

crisis, when the baht lost 60 percent of its value.

Thai exports in October rose 7.7 percent to $9.4 billion,

decelerating from a 24 percent gain in September, and imports

increased 19.7 percent to $9.78 billion, the Bank of Thailand said

on Nov. 30. That left a trade deficit of $372 million.

The October current-account surplus shrank to $68.6 million

from $877 million in September, Suchada Kirakul, senior director

at the central bank's economics department, said on Nov. 30.

The central bank on Oct. 28 left its full-year deficit

forecast at between $3 billion and $4 billion, its first shortfall

since 1997. Thailand recorded a deficit of $4.99 billion for the

first 10 months of this year.

Further gains in crude oil prices may worsen Thailand's trade

and current-account positions, Henderson said. The country imports

almost all its oil needs.

``Higher oil prices are a terms-of-trade shock,'' he said.

``A comparison of the baht with the Thai terms of trade suggests

we may see further relative baht weakness in the near term.''

--Editors: Harvey (nnh)

Story illustration: To track the Thai baht's performance, click

on {THB <Crncy> HCP <GO>}. Click on {NI THAI BN <GO>} for news

on Thailand. To track the Indonesian rupiah's performance, click

on {IDR <Crncy> HCP <GO>}.

To contact the reporter on this story:

Christina Soon in Singapore (65) 6212-1169 or at

[email protected];

To contact the editor responsible for this story:

Beth Thomas at (81) (3) 3201-3466 or

[email protected];

Dan Moss at (44)(20) 7330-7719 or

[email protected].

[TAGINFO]

NI THAI

NI INDO

NI ASIA

NI ASIAX

NI SEASIA

NI EM

NI FRX

NI GFX

NI FX

NI FXVOICE

NI ANAFX

[Harmonica]

Here's my post from December 23rd:

Fellas,

As softly as ever, with just a shhhh, may I humbly, oh, ever so gently, coax you, guide you and urge you to

start ACCUMULATING Dollars (USD).

Do it "saaalowwleee" every week, a "leeetle beet" at a time.

Do this while every mothers' son is negative the Dollar.

Sentiment plays a huge role in overall market success and I believe we are at a dramatic, historical turning point. A bottom is being formed currently. No. no, not that kind of bottom!

There is not ONE dude who's +ve the Dollar--that's why I'm hiding and am only just whispering to you. I've taken too many bullets in the past and I'm a wee bit gunshy. The shooters later came back to cuddle & fondle me, but I'm not into that sort of thing.

Four years in Thailand and I'm getting very lonely making decent money in the markets. No office required, no overhead, just Tech. analysis, a computer, 4 Brokerage accounts, and guts to go against the HERD. The CNBC (and other)experts will ruin you! I've already told them to "piss off", the lying, BS mothers.

It hurts & torments me to see that so many wildebeast are just going to jump into the river full of hungry crocs with narry a thought that it is a classic bear-trap.

It is dangerous to be different and go against the multitude, the crowd, for in the end it is only a teeeeeny-weeeeny %age of cats that profit. These profits come from the herd's losses.

Give it some thought my friends. Just think about it, thats all I ask.

God bless you all for you've opened a door to a vista (this topic) I just plain love and by all measures, it loves me.

Adios

Harmonica

------------------------------------------------

This thread was nice profit for anybody that took my cue on the US Dollar right from day 1 to the day of my departure from Thaivisa.

Unfortunately I had to leave before the Nov 2005 Dollar top.

Alot has happened since then.

[Harmonica]

Here's my post from December 23rd:

Fellas,

As softly as ever, with just a shhhh, may I humbly, oh, ever so gently, coax you, guide you and urge you to

start ACCUMULATING Dollars (USD).

Do it "saaalowwleee" every week, a "leeetle beet" at a time.

Do this while every mothers' son is negative the Dollar.

Sentiment plays a huge role in overall market success and I believe we are at a dramatic, historical turning point. A bottom is being formed currently. No. no, not that kind of bottom!

There is not ONE dude who's +ve the Dollar--that's why I'm hiding and am only just whispering to you. I've taken too many bullets in the past and I'm a wee bit gunshy. The shooters later came back to cuddle & fondle me, but I'm not into that sort of thing.

Four years in Thailand and I'm getting very lonely making decent money in the markets. No office required, no overhead, just Tech. analysis, a computer, 4 Brokerage accounts, and guts to go against the HERD. The CNBC (and other)experts will ruin you! I've already told them to "piss off", the lying, BS mothers.

It hurts & torments me to see that so many wildebeast are just going to jump into the river full of hungry crocs with narry a thought that it is a classic bear-trap.

It is dangerous to be different and go against the multitude, the crowd, for in the end it is only a teeeeeny-weeeeny %age of cats that profit. These profits come from the herd's losses.

Give it some thought my friends. Just think about it, thats all I ask.

God bless you all for you've opened a door to a vista (this topic) I just plain love and by all measures, it loves me.

Adios

Harmonica

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This thread was nice profit for anybody that took my cue on the US Dollar right from day 1 to the day of my departure from Thaivisa.

Unfortunately I had to leave before the Nov 2005 Dollar top.

Alot has happened since then.

Fast forward to now, Feb 2009.

Remember all the geniuses in this thread who kept saying the $ would go to zero? Their reasons? Huge trade deficit, balance of payments, unrelenting printing of more and more useless paper US $, the US losing its manufacturing base left and right, taking on monstrous debts, the Chinese and other foreigners owing the US. The list of reasons was endless. Like I said, every mother's son was anti-US Dollar.

Not I.

And I'm still not.

In reality the $ has generated beautiful trends, perfectly normal behaviour, even acknowledged by both Easy Al and Gentle Ben. The complaints of the Chinese, Koreans et al was just noise.

Conclusion: If "fundamentals" were the reason for the expectation of the demise of the $, then just by virtue of the fact that the $ has done the opposite of what was expected we can safely conclude, "fundamentals ain't it"