World Economic Crash Phase Ii?

[stumonster]

horrendous font and colour makes people less inclined to read

You have to remember the main cause of the recession was sub-prime loans.

I don't think the main cause was "sub prime house loans" - these were the first to be exposed because the people with them do not have recourse to any other fancy financial aid that would have allowed them to ponzi on for longer

Don't underestimate the brain power of the financial and economic experts in the USA. If their ingenuity and fancy financial products contributed to the current financial collapse they certainly are intelligent enough to devise financial remedies to get the country out of it.

the financial brain power manufactured paper credit via leverage on overpriced assets and then this credit was used to purchase ipods made in China - the Chinese are not going to buy the ipods back.

Look for signs of the recovery to start in late summer or early fall. As more newer and more efficient industries emerge, hiring will increase, credit will be restored and the housing industry will recover since housing will be needed for those who lost homes due to subprime loans.

the only way the USA will recover is by learning to be less flamboyant and learn to live within their means - no more paying 5 dollars for a 50 cent cup of coffee at starbucks.

the Chinese will be hoping they are able to get some of the money owned to them , they will be rational enough to realise that they will not get every cent in the dollar.

the real possibility is if the American massed throw the toys out of the pram because they think they deserve that hollywood inspired lifestyle.

the basic servant jobs dry up

there will be massive unemployment in the USA as the basic servant jobs dry up - real education will have to come back so they can work in the industries that the US still has

http://www.iht.com/articles/2009/02/20/business/wbmake.php

this will not be over for a few years yet.

[PeaceBlondie]

Not to be arguing hard Q1 2009 data, but major car companies are reporting 30% declines in sales, worldwide. If that is an indicator of economic decline, it is very painful for Q1

[AlexLah]

Peace B, could you please point us to the "Hard Q1 2009 Data"

[Naam]

Not to be arguing hard Q1 2009 data, but major car companies are reporting 30% declines in sales, worldwide. If that is an indicator of economic decline, it is very painful for Q1

of course it is an indicator. no doubt that Q1/09 will be worse than Q4/08, not only in Thailand but globally and not only cars but most non essential products.

[parryhandy]

I honestly believe that the world/society could go back 100 years + before the end to this crisis appears.If this was a baseball game I would put us somewhere near the end of the second innings.

[tjo o tjim]

The scary thing now is the number of people ready to just throw in the towel. There has always been a good group of people to cash out early and sit on the sidelines, but a lot of people are starting to give up now.

In the US, third and fourth round layoffs are starting for some (well managed) companies. (First round is trimming the fat, second round sharpens the business... third round is triage, and fourth is survival.) Employment prospects for people laid off are bleak. Government doesn't have money to pay unemployment benefits, and is running out of money for other "welfare" programs. When we hit 10% unemployment, things go from really bad to dangerous, as few businesses can handle the fallout.

Making matters worse, you have a whole lot of politicking about "morality" and "ethics" of bailouts and government spending: People cutting their own throats but just too dumb to realize it.

For Thailand, the market for consumption of exports is down at least 15-20%. I can't tell real numbers on tourism, but it is hard to believe it isn't down at least 25%.

[ilyushin]

Interesting presentation

[midas]

The rampant rumors of the imminent decline of the USA are well, exaggerated.

Are you a speechwriter for the current Administration?

It is impossible for the decline of the USA to be a rampant rumor because evidence of its actual decline which has already been in process for years

is clearly visible in so many aspects of its society. As a country whose only engine of growth is to rely on its overweight citizens wandering through

Walmart munching McDonalds with Apple ipods blaring away in their ears, they have been iretrievably left behind by their Asian counterparts

who not only have an equal amount of brainpower, but far more fiscal discipline.

One of the biggest challenges facing the very existence of USA is not the threat of Islamic terrorism but a rampant social decay

from within its own borders. How to stop the disease of complete lawlessness caused by armed and dangerous drug cartels

spreading over its border and infecting its own society. You dont believe me? Look at what is happening in Arizona, Texas etc.

One of the most respected followers of social and economic trends in USA warns of the dangers of a prolific growth in armed gangs

in its biggest cities and with cash-strapped law-enforcement authorities unable to do a thing about it.

If that isn't decline of the USA -what is ?

[lannarebirth]

last week there was an interresting discussion on Television aboiut the economical and financial crisis.

One historian said that the 1904 financial crisis took 15 years before recovering, the 1929 crash took the same amount if time and so did the 1976 oil crisis, so why it should be different now.

There was general consensus that the industry could recover in 1 or 2 years but the losses on the stock market and the financial crisis would take much longer;

Another interesting point was that countries who have an social security system will be better protected against deflation because there was a bottom line, while countries who didn't have such system the deflation could go on without stop. so more and more people will have no income and therefore could not spend and this will create even an more rapid deflation. so in fact a lack of a social security system would create a down spiral who can not be stopped.

So in this view countries like the US, China and Thailand are less protected against deflation.

But not all is bad. last week the 4 biggest employers in my country announced that they will hire 12000 extra jobs this year. And AUDI will raise there production with 47000 units of the model A3 this year. Due to the fact that the German government give a scrap premium to everybody who replace a 9 year old car by a smaller low emission car. France is planning to do the same.

Also the European labour unions, German and Flemish governments and the management of GM Europe have a business plan to make OPEL independent from GM America. They are prepared to give guarantees on loans up to 5 Billion Euro for this. This week they will be negotiating this in Detroit. Because the OPEL plants are profitable and have high performance and productivity and also have new models in the pipeline for 2010 and 2011. Some automotive production is coming back from Eastern Europe and Asia.

The expression "whistling past the graveyard" comes to mind.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/gallery...cture=341883529

Edited February 23, 2009 by lannarebirth

[lannarebirth]

I honestly believe that the world/society could go back 100 years + before the end to this crisis appears.If this was a baseball game I would put us somewhere near the end of the second innings.

How about a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement? Anyhow, to extend the baseball analogy further, I'd like to go back just far enough, to where people could more readily recite a baseball players batting average than their salary and no one ever heard of "performance enhancing drugs".

[henryalleman]

The expression "whistling past the graveyard" comes to mind.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/gallery...cture=341883529

maybe its depend on which car is wanted by the consumer of the future.

http://usnews.rankingsandreviews.com/cars-trucks/Audi_A3/

[lannarebirth]

The expression "whistling past the graveyard" comes to mind.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/gallery...cture=341883529

maybe its depend on which car is wanted by the consumer of the future.

http://usnews.rankingsandreviews.com/cars-trucks/Audi_A3/

Or who will work cheapest, or who's gvernment will offer greater subsidies, or if the parent company can remain solvent. Lots of considerations I suppose. The fact is, right now, there is shockingly rapid loss of demand for all classes of vehicles and it is likely that governments themselves will have to stinulate demand through fleet purchases, if they can.

http://www.globalinsight.com/SDA/SDADetail7687.htm