Gold ... Safe-haven Or Ultimate Bear-trap

[AlexLah]

I just had a talk again with my Gold bars and they said again they wanna go through the roof.

[WilliamCave]

Hi, was noticing the thais that have had some gold to sell if hard times hit are now selling privatly, they are trying to find buyers. My wife and I have bought gold from ,,wouldnt say friends but people who know that we have a bit of money have been coming to us to buy there gold so they dont have to sell it to a pon shop and risk lousing it for good. We are paying less than the pon shops and are going to hold the gold for them until they can buy it back from us, but chances are they will not be able to. We bought 100,000 baht one day from people and my wife bought 70,000 baht the week before. So the deals are out there for gold. The reason they are coming to us is in the hope of buying it back some day

It is almost like a loan, with the gold as colataral, and I tell them they do not get it back until it is 100% payed back not monthly payments and give it back to them on a payment plan...some tried my wife said NO to them. amasing how some think I am that dumb to give it back to them and recieve a monthly payment from them hahaha.

And if they do come up with the money I will give it back to them, with out question.

So has anyone else noticed that thais are starting to get sell the gold they have? Or use it for colataral for something?

So....you are loaning out money for free?? If you will give it all back, then whats in it for you? It is a loan, if you have to give it back, but I ask again, whats in it for you. Why would you loan interest free money to someone that is not your friend?? What am I missing?

To be honest they really dont have the money to pay it back. the gold was from ex boyfriends or such.. they dont have the money to buy gold like this on a 5000 baht a month salary.

[BlackJack]

yes

very clear

keep up the good work

do you also have a chart for the CDS's about to bring down the market

It is funny to see peeps fly in, make a statement and never back up their claims.

Think of BingoBongo and Harmonica.

Below a picture of the model I use, I think it is very clear what the trend for Gold will be.

I put a chart of Gold price of the last ten years and you can clearly see where lines are crossing and trends in price.

[AlexLah]

I find your nickname highly suspicious, are you the writer of this sequel?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/4613223...-5.html?image=7

About cds, the question is: What will that market bring down.

[ScienceGuy]

<br />

I have never understood the exuberance in gold. Maybe I would lose out on seemingly very attractive<br />rallies but what's the ultimate attraction? As an alternative to conventional investments I would<br />rather own a warehouse full of rice or non perishable other foodstuff - not futures or other paper instruments -but<br />physical commodity. At least I know I always have something to eat in these uncertain times whether the price<br />goes up or down and I always know there will always be someone I can sell it to?

<br />To a major extent the price of gold is dependent on an agreement between the various national banks not to sell tons of the stuff into the market, thereby preserving the "value" it is perceived to have by just about every person on the globe.<br /><br />Gold does not have any utility value, it only has a "rarity value" and the combined belief that it is worth something on a weight for weight basis more than say rice. But if you were starving sitting on 2 tons of gold, then surely you would be prepared to swap a ton of gold for a ton of rice?<br /><br />In the end with gold it is only belief that it has a value and the hope that there will not be a mass of sellers on the market to destroy that value. The fact that it looks quite pretty, feels substantial and doesn't corrode or fade away contributes to its attraction.<br /><br />I am by no means an expert in this, but at the moment there are more buyers than sellers, so the price is stable or rising. Now, why are they buying? Because they consider it to be a store of value. Now, what is going to happen when<br /><br />a. they need to release this value to buy food?<br /><br />or<br /><br />b. we are recovering from the economic crisis and they all want a bit of liquid cash to spend on all the deflated assets that are around?<br /><br />IMO gold will hold its value and maybe even climb until there are some signs of economic recovery, and then there could be a big rush to sell the yellow metal, as, basically you can't eat the stuff and you can't drink the stuff and you can't live in or even produce anything with it except teeth fillings. And people will want to realise its value.<br /><br />Holding the stuff has its risks and it will DEFINITELY lose value once an economic recovery is in sight.<br /><br />

<br /><br /><br />

Actually gold is an excellent conductor and is widely used in electronics. There is lower demand for electronics and hence less demand for gold now. As soon as the consumer price index is adjusted to reflect lower prices of houses, you'll be able to buy more gold with less dollars. Right now gold is artificially kept high by people dumping currencies and looking for safe-havens. As soon as they find a new safe-haven, they'll dump gold and prices will come down. I'd be looking to pick up gold at the bottom and when the CPI is lowered. Just guessing here, but the lowest I've ever seen gold is $400/oz so at that price-point or near there would be a good time to buy.

Remember, gold is always a gamble. If somebody makes a big find and floods the market with cheap gold, you're screwed. If many mines runs dry you could be sitting on a very valuable asset.

[ray08]

Dot-com Bubble - Burst

Housing bubble - Burst

Oil bubble - Burst

GOLD BUBBLE - Still to Burst

Lets not kid ourselves ,Gold is overvalued ,and as we have learnt from the past ,Bubbles burst, if you have gold from $400-$800 great time to take a profit ,buying at around $ 1000 , much more risk ,it will burst ,but when ?who knows? could go to $1250 ,but dangerous territory ,Oil was almost $ 150 not to long ago and we know how fast and far it fell.

[Naam]

As soon as the consumer price index is adjusted to reflect lower prices of houses, you'll be able to buy more gold with less dollars. Right now gold is artificially kept high by people dumping currencies and looking for safe-havens. As soon as they find a new safe-haven, they'll dump gold and prices will come down. I'd be looking to pick up gold at the bottom and when the CPI is lowered. Just guessing here, but the lowest I've ever seen gold is $400/oz so at that price-point or near there would be a good time to buy.

another genius who walks among us common mortals but he can't be blamed for being not old enough to have experienced a gold price of 42.- (FORTY-TWO) dollars an ounce

[bkk_mike]

It's a Bear trap. (Gold pays no coupon, or dividends, so is only going to go up in value while people are worried about investing in other things.)

ie. I wouldn't be surprised if it goes up for a while, as people put money in gold while it seems to be a safe haven.

However, it's only a safe haven. As soon as some other asset class (that has an income stream - i.e. does pay coupons or dividends) seems safe again, money will move back out of gold very quickly.

[Naam]

It's a Bear trap. (Gold pays no coupon, or dividends, so is only going to go up in value while people are worried about investing in other things.)

ie. I wouldn't be surprised if it goes up for a while, as people put money in gold while it seems to be a safe haven.

However, it's only a safe haven. As soon as some other asset class (that has an income stream - i.e. does pay coupons or dividends) seems safe again, money will move back out of gold very quickly.

unfortunately the problem is that nobody knows how soon other asset classes can be deemed safe again.

[gregb]

However, it's only a safe haven. As soon as some other asset class (that has an income stream - i.e. does pay coupons or dividends) seems safe again, money will move back out of gold very quickly.

That is of course the conventional logic. And if there were any reasonable way to return to business as usual I would agree with you. Unfortunately, I am not convinced any such way exists. To try and explain the current price rise in gold using such simplistic logic ignores the much bigger physical reality.

For anyone who is reading, before you believe a statement like this taken straight from the modern economic hymn book, ask yourself exactly how business as usual will be restored. First, you need a massive reset in the debt level of the US. How is this going to happen? A debt jubilee? Hyperinflation? What is going to bring the debt level down to something manageable, as it was say 50 years ago, so that we have a few decades of normalcy to play with?

Next, where is the energy going to come from to allow business as usual growth? Oil production has quite clearly peaked, and you can't run a modern industrial society without exponentially increasing amounts of it. It took over 100 years to build our current oil based infrastructure. If you want to build a new infrastructure on something else, you better have a vision at least that long.

There are so many problems facing the industrial world right now, that it is extremely difficult to believe business as usual will be restored in the next few decades, if ever. In fact, it would appear much more likely that our society is going the way of the Romans, or the Mayans, or countless other complex societies that crashed because of diminishing returns on complexity and resource depletion.

If this is the case, and I believe it is, gold will be a better currency than any fiat currency from this point forward for the rest of our lives and that of our children and grandchildren. This comes from just looking at the physics of the problem and the historical parallels. There may be relative periods of calm where gold will weaken against other currencies, but they will be short lived.

This isn't a bear trap unfortunately. This is simply the expected outcome of a society facing decline.

[Hairy]

Will it be the Chinese, with their longterm view, conservatism and solid trading practices?

With the Chinese, and don't forget that the economies and businesses in Asia are run by the Chinese, they do NOT try and destroy each other. They want a cooperative and mutually beneficial long term arrangement.

You just don't understand Chinese culture.

Seriously. If you honestly believe what you wrote above, you have absolutely no clue about it.

The only way you're going to learn is if you go to China and live there for a while. I don't have the time or energy to explain all the ways in which you are wrong.

As soon as the consumer price index is adjusted to reflect lower prices of houses, you'll be able to buy more gold with less dollars. Right now gold is artificially kept high by people dumping currencies and looking for safe-havens. As soon as they find a new safe-haven, they'll dump gold and prices will come down. I'd be looking to pick up gold at the bottom and when the CPI is lowered. Just guessing here, but the lowest I've ever seen gold is $400/oz so at that price-point or near there would be a good time to buy.

another genius who walks among us common mortals but he can't be blamed for being not old enough to have experienced a gold price of 42.- (FORTY-TWO) dollars an ounce

He must be less than ten years old, since gold was US$250/oz as recently as, oh, I think 2002? Some time between 2000-2004 at any rate.

[fire and ice]

Tha't why I hold Yen and US Dollar and Thai Baht.

You're kidding aren't you? You think gold might be an already overpriced trap but yet you are holding onto tthe 3 most overpriced currencies in the world?

With the baht basically dirty-pegged to the yen or dollar, these currencies are only going to head south. There is no more room for them to go up any more. The only reason the US$ didn’t go down (instead of up) over the past 6-8 months is because people think of it as some kind of 'safe haven’. It’s nonsense based on nothing really - once supply & demand catches up with such ridiculous sentiment those currencies will come crashing down to earth.

Best bet is to buy A$ NOW - it won't go down anymore*, it will be back to 75-80c US within months, possibly higher.

* I don't mean it wont go down a tiny bit but it won't drop significantly, and will be heading north soon if not already begun.

[bensalu]

I was quoted 82500 for 5 baht bar today in a mbk gold shop how much would there fees be in this price ?

[AlexLah]

100 THB per Baht gold, holy crab, so that indicates a Monday opening of 16500?

[Sunbelt Asia]

if I am wrong and this is the beginning of a new bullmarket, which means that I will want to add Gold to my current holdings of paper currencies, I will wait for the downwave - this will come as sure as night follows day. That will give me plenty of new information about GOLD's bone structure. Until then I don't play. I stay out of Gold totally, no Long no Short. Just flat.

Bonus for SST traders: protect your LONG profits with a stop a notch under $968 (closing basis on 240-min. timeframe) - even tighter with a trendline on 240-min.

Some Elliott Traders feel different on other sites.

They feel we are in Wave I from 24 Oct 2008

From To Days Wave # From To $ Change % Change

4/6/2001-5/25/2001=49 1 $256 $291 $35 13.7%

5/25/2001-7/6/2001=42 2 $291 $265 ($26) -8.9%

7/6/2001 5/31/2002=329 3 $265 $327 $62 23.4%

5/31/2002-8/1/2002=62 4 $327 $302 ($25) -7.6%

8/1/2002-2/5/2003 188= 5 $302 $382 $80 26.5%

4/6/2001 2/5/2003 670= WAVE I $256 $382 $126 49.2%

2/5/2003-2/18/2003=13 A $382 $344 ($38) -9.9%

2/18/2003-2/25/2003=7 B $344 $358 $14 4.1%

2/25/2003-4/7/2003=41 C $358 $320 ($38) -10.6%

2/5/2003 4/7/2003=61 WAVE II $382 $320 ($62) -16.2%

4/7/2003-5/27/2003=50 1 $320 $371 $51 15.9%

5/27/2003-7/17/2003=51 2 $371 $343 ($28) -7.5%

7/17/2003-1/13/2004=180 3 $343 $426 $83 24.2%

1/13/2004-5/10/2004=118 4 $426 $375 ($51) -12.0%

5/10/2004-5/12/2006=732 5 $375 $725 $350 93.3%

4/7/2003-5/12/2006=1131 WAVE III $320 $725 $405 126.6%

5/12/2006-10/6/2006=147 WAVE IV $725 $560 ($165) -22.8%

10/6/2006-4/20/2007=196 1 $560 $691 $131 23.4%

4/20/2007-6/27/2007=68 2 $691 $642 ($49) -7%

6/27/2007-11/8/2007=134 3 $642 $841 $199 31%

11/8/2007-11/30/2007=22 4 $841 $783 ($58) -7%

11/30/2007-3/17/2008=108 5 $783 $1,015 $232 30%

10/6/2006-3/17/2008=528 WAVE V $560 $1,015 $455 81%

4/6/2001-3/17/2008=2537 MAJOR ONE$256 $1,015 $755 295%

3/17/2008-9/11/2008=178 A $1,011 $741 ($270) -26.71%

9/11/2008-10/10/2008=29 B $741 $918 $177 23.89%

10/10/2008-10/24/2008=14 C $918 $699 ($219) -23.86%

3/17/2008-10/24/2008=221 MAJOR TWO$1,015 $699 ($316) -31%

Some feel we are now completing subwave 3 of Wave I of Major THREE

Next short term resistance is around 1020-1030 ( or slight new high at 1050.) If its really strong at that time, the new high could go into 1150-1250 by March.

I’ve been taking contracts off on Thursday and Friday as I had big returns that I wanted to lock in. Still long enough that I'm happy if it goes higher. No regrets on what I left on the table as the name of the game is money management. Over 50% return on my trading account in two weeks is cool.

You are right, the count could be a giant "B" but either way the correct play was long on the primary or alternate counts till now. As we are getting close to the old highs just wanted to lighten the load because of either the end of subwave 3 of Wave I of Major THREE as the primary or "B" wave.

But we could skyrocket from here. This week or next will tell lots.

By the way...most big banks are toast. If we get to 1150 the next couple weeks it will because of the banks.

Cramer says "We're on the verge of something that could take down America, and the world, and change your life forever. All wealth gone. People fighting in the streets. Governments overthrown. Money worthless."

http://www.thestreet.com/video/10465193/cr...sh-america.html

Please do your own due dilgence. This is NOT investment advice.

Edited February 22, 2009 by Sunbelt Asia

[Sunbelt Asia]

I was quoted 82500 for 5 baht bar today in a mbk gold shop how much would there fees be in this price ?

100 Baht per Gold Baht or 500 Baht for 5 Baht of gold,

http://www.goldtraders.or.th/index_en.php

You would be buying underneath fair value of spot.

http://www.ranthong.com/

993 x (15.24400 / 31.1035) x (0.965 / 0.995) x 35.70 = 16 850.445

[bensalu]

well thats seems reasonable i think it is time for a small piece of gold

Edited February 22, 2009 by bensalu

[lannarebirth]

A couple of points. Neither a bear trap nor a bull trap has yet occurred with Gold. Even if it had most of the posters here seem to have the definitions reversed. I wouldn't call Gold in a buble yet, but I think it's reasonable to say it is certainly highly valued given what one might otherwise be able to purchase with the same amount of funds.

[lannarebirth]

if I am wrong and this is the beginning of a new bullmarket, which means that I will want to add Gold to my current holdings of paper currencies, I will wait for the downwave - this will come as sure as night follows day. That will give me plenty of new information about GOLD's bone structure. Until then I don't play. I stay out of Gold totally, no Long no Short. Just flat.

Bonus for SST traders: protect your LONG profits with a stop a notch under $968 (closing basis on 240-min. timeframe) - even tighter with a trendline on 240-min.

Some Elliott Traders feel different on other sites.

They feel we are in Wave I from 24 Oct 2008

From To Days Wave # From To $ Change % Change

4/6/2001-5/25/2001=49 1 $256 $291 $35 13.7%

5/25/2001-7/6/2001=42 2 $291 $265 ($26) -8.9%

7/6/2001 5/31/2002=329 3 $265 $327 $62 23.4%

5/31/2002-8/1/2002=62 4 $327 $302 ($25) -7.6%

8/1/2002-2/5/2003 188= 5 $302 $382 $80 26.5%

4/6/2001 2/5/2003 670= WAVE I $256 $382 $126 49.2%

2/5/2003-2/18/2003=13 A $382 $344 ($38) -9.9%

2/18/2003-2/25/2003=7 B $344 $358 $14 4.1%

2/25/2003-4/7/2003=41 C $358 $320 ($38) -10.6%

2/5/2003 4/7/2003=61 WAVE II $382 $320 ($62) -16.2%

4/7/2003-5/27/2003=50 1 $320 $371 $51 15.9%

5/27/2003-7/17/2003=51 2 $371 $343 ($28) -7.5%

7/17/2003-1/13/2004=180 3 $343 $426 $83 24.2%

1/13/2004-5/10/2004=118 4 $426 $375 ($51) -12.0%

5/10/2004-5/12/2006=732 5 $375 $725 $350 93.3%

4/7/2003-5/12/2006=1131 WAVE III $320 $725 $405 126.6%

5/12/2006-10/6/2006=147 WAVE IV $725 $560 ($165) -22.8%

10/6/2006-4/20/2007=196 1 $560 $691 $131 23.4%

4/20/2007-6/27/2007=68 2 $691 $642 ($49) -7%

6/27/2007-11/8/2007=134 3 $642 $841 $199 31%

11/8/2007-11/30/2007=22 4 $841 $783 ($58) -7%

11/30/2007-3/17/2008=108 5 $783 $1,015 $232 30%

10/6/2006-3/17/2008=528 WAVE V $560 $1,015 $455 81%

4/6/2001-3/17/2008=2537 MAJOR ONE$256 $1,015 $755 295%

3/17/2008-9/11/2008=178 A $1,011 $741 ($270) -26.71%

9/11/2008-10/10/2008=29 B $741 $918 $177 23.89%

10/10/2008-10/24/2008=14 C $918 $699 ($219) -23.86%

3/17/2008-10/24/2008=221 MAJOR TWO$1,015 $699 ($316) -31%

Some feel we are now completing subwave 3 of Wave I of Major THREE

Next short term resistance is around 1020-1030 ( or slight new high at 1050.) If its really strong at that time, the new high could go into 1150-1250 by March.

I've been taking contracts off on Thursday and Friday as I had big returns that I wanted to lock in. Still long enough that I'm happy if it goes higher. No regrets on what I left on the table as the name of the game is money management. Over 50% return on my trading account in two weeks is cool.

You are right, the count could be a giant "B" but either way the correct play was long on the primary or alternate counts till now. As we are getting close to the old highs just wanted to lighten the load because of either the end of subwave 3 of Wave I of Major THREE as the primary or "B" wave.

But we could skyrocket from here. This week or next will tell lots.

By the way...most big banks are toast. If we get to 1150 the next couple weeks it will because of the banks.

Cramer says "We're on the verge of something that could take down America, and the world, and change your life forever. All wealth gone. People fighting in the streets. Governments overthrown. Money worthless."

http://www.thestreet.com/video/10465193/cr...sh-america.html

Please do your own due dilgence. This is NOT investment advice.

I've known ALOT of traders. Among them I've only know 2 who could utilize Eliot Waves in a predictive way to make money. One of those two is dead and the other made 6,410% returns last year. Eliot Waves are a great way to look back at what happened in the past, and even that count will be subjective and differ from the next guys. That said, if you're going to utilize this tool, only use what you have generated from your own effort. No surer way to penury than followinng someone elses EW count. Just ask any former Eliot Wave International subscriber.

[bartender100]

Only 161,000 tons of gold have ever been mined in the world, as countries and wealthy hoard its only going up, there is less coming out now, hench the reason small gold mining companies in the last few months are starting to rocket $1500 an onch this time next year IMHO.

Want a tip? GEX 3.95p as of 20th Feb (UK Aim Market)

[Naam]

hench the reason small gold mining companies in the last few months are starting to rocket $1500 an onch this time next year IMHO.

what does that mean in a language i understand?

[Chaimai]

hench the reason small gold mining companies in the last few months are starting to rocket $1500 an onch this time next year IMHO.

what does that mean in a language i understand?

My attempt to interpret would be:-

"hence the reason small gold mining companies in the last few months are starting to rocket.(full stop) $1,500 an ounce this time next year.. "

[bartender100]

That's what i said. LOL, got y H's and C's the wrong way round

[unforgiven]

Everone bullish GOLD and so far they are correct. Trend is UP.

Dennis Gartman of The Gartman Letter just announced continuation bullmarket in Gold.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

This is just the kind of scene that turns BEAR on, namely, "everyone is on board" - then reverse course and bankrupt the lot of them.

I'm NOT buying Gold .... I believe Gold will go to 650, and possibly 525 or 500 and maybe lower. When complete that will be the time to load up on Gold, not now.

Tha't why I hold Yen and US Dollar and Thai Baht.

Reason: Gold's correction from March 17, 2008 top might not be complete at the Oct 2008 low but just wave A down. We are in wave B up. Yet to come is wave C down. Alternate could be a long-drawn-out sideways triangle stretching for years.

Wave Bs are sucker waves, draw them all in type waves.

Wave C down will send 'em all to the promised land.

-----------------------------------------------

The Russians are notorious for dumping on the market just when it crests .W atch with oil so low the ruskys are just timing it right!!!

[Sunbelt Asia]

I've known ALOT of traders. Among them I've only know 2 who could utilize Eliot Waves in a predictive way to make money. One of those two is dead and the other made 6,410% returns last year. Eliot Waves are a great way to look back at what happened in the past, and even that count will be subjective and differ from the next guys. That said, if you're going to utilize this tool, only use what you have generated from your own effort. No surer way to penury than followinng someone elses EW count. Just ask any former Eliot Wave International subscriber.

I would agree. Elliott is a good tool but not the only tool in your toolbox you should use as a trader or investor. I made over around $300,000 back in 87 with puts and close to a million dollars in 2001. But sure tried to give the same amount back in the years 1995 to 1998 and year of 2002. The problem with newsletters is you can suck in as the mkt goes again you, the newsletter will go to lengths telling you, they were right and the trend will reverse.

After looking back, came to realize its better to have money management and don't increase your bets when you are wrong. An opinion is worth only so much. I have found Elliott is good at entering trades on breakouts after small corrections on the general trend.

The trend on gold is up till the mkt says different. Look how gold as done in other currencies.

http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/upload...s-2-20-2009.pdf

[LivinLOS]

Right now gold is artificially kept high by people dumping currencies and looking for safe-havens. As soon as they find a new safe-haven, they'll dump gold and prices will come down. I'd be looking to pick up gold at the bottom and when the CPI is lowered. Just guessing here, but the lowest I've ever seen gold is $400/oz so at that price-point or near there would be a good time to buy.

Remember, gold is always a gamble. If somebody makes a big find and floods the market with cheap gold, you're screwed. If many mines runs dry you could be sitting on a very valuable asset.

Well I bet the farm on gold at 380 and silver at 6.80..

As for the big find, getting gold out of the ground is a long slow process, its labour and energy intensive... Part of what keeps it scarce.

Whats more worrying is the rapid rise in the ETF's.. That paper gold (and I struggle to believe its real gold held on deposit, close reading of the prospectus is full of mealy mouthed lawyer speak, so its a gold derivative) is easy to short, stop loss, trade and triggers and that additional mechanism makes gold liable to nasty downswings if a rush to the exits happens, much moreso that the pysical holders.

[LivinLOS]

It's a Bear trap. (Gold pays no coupon, or dividends, so is only going to go up in value while people are worried about investing in other things.)

ie. I wouldn't be surprised if it goes up for a while, as people put money in gold while it seems to be a safe haven.

However, it's only a safe haven. As soon as some other asset class (that has an income stream - i.e. does pay coupons or dividends) seems safe again, money will move back out of gold very quickly.

unfortunately the problem is that nobody knows how soon other asset classes can be deemed safe again.

Or if paper currencies will be worth anything by then either !!

I promise to pay the bearer doesnt work well for me, and I have less liability than uncle Sam

[BlackJack]

if I am wrong and this is the beginning of a new bullmarket, which means that I will want to add Gold to my current holdings of paper currencies, I will wait for the downwave - this will come as sure as night follows day. That will give me plenty of new information about GOLD's bone structure. Until then I don't play. I stay out of Gold totally, no Long no Short. Just flat.

Bonus for SST traders: protect your LONG profits with a stop a notch under $968 (closing basis on 240-min. timeframe) - even tighter with a trendline on 240-min.

Some Elliott Traders feel different on other sites.

They feel we are in Wave I from 24 Oct 2008

From To Days Wave # From To $ Change % Change

4/6/2001-5/25/2001=49 1 $256 $291 $35 13.7%

5/25/2001-7/6/2001=42 2 $291 $265 ($26) -8.9%

7/6/2001 5/31/2002=329 3 $265 $327 $62 23.4%

5/31/2002-8/1/2002=62 4 $327 $302 ($25) -7.6%

8/1/2002-2/5/2003 188= 5 $302 $382 $80 26.5%

4/6/2001 2/5/2003 670= WAVE I $256 $382 $126 49.2%

2/5/2003-2/18/2003=13 A $382 $344 ($38) -9.9%

2/18/2003-2/25/2003=7 B $344 $358 $14 4.1%

2/25/2003-4/7/2003=41 C $358 $320 ($38) -10.6%

2/5/2003 4/7/2003=61 WAVE II $382 $320 ($62) -16.2%

4/7/2003-5/27/2003=50 1 $320 $371 $51 15.9%

5/27/2003-7/17/2003=51 2 $371 $343 ($28) -7.5%

7/17/2003-1/13/2004=180 3 $343 $426 $83 24.2%

1/13/2004-5/10/2004=118 4 $426 $375 ($51) -12.0%

5/10/2004-5/12/2006=732 5 $375 $725 $350 93.3%

4/7/2003-5/12/2006=1131 WAVE III $320 $725 $405 126.6%

5/12/2006-10/6/2006=147 WAVE IV $725 $560 ($165) -22.8%

10/6/2006-4/20/2007=196 1 $560 $691 $131 23.4%

4/20/2007-6/27/2007=68 2 $691 $642 ($49) -7%

6/27/2007-11/8/2007=134 3 $642 $841 $199 31%

11/8/2007-11/30/2007=22 4 $841 $783 ($58) -7%

11/30/2007-3/17/2008=108 5 $783 $1,015 $232 30%

10/6/2006-3/17/2008=528 WAVE V $560 $1,015 $455 81%

4/6/2001-3/17/2008=2537 MAJOR ONE$256 $1,015 $755 295%

3/17/2008-9/11/2008=178 A $1,011 $741 ($270) -26.71%

9/11/2008-10/10/2008=29 B $741 $918 $177 23.89%

10/10/2008-10/24/2008=14 C $918 $699 ($219) -23.86%

3/17/2008-10/24/2008=221 MAJOR TWO$1,015 $699 ($316) -31%

Some feel we are now completing subwave 3 of Wave I of Major THREE

Next short term resistance is around 1020-1030 ( or slight new high at 1050.) If its really strong at that time, the new high could go into 1150-1250 by March.

I've been taking contracts off on Thursday and Friday as I had big returns that I wanted to lock in. Still long enough that I'm happy if it goes higher. No regrets on what I left on the table as the name of the game is money management. Over 50% return on my trading account in two weeks is cool.

You are right, the count could be a giant "B" but either way the correct play was long on the primary or alternate counts till now. As we are getting close to the old highs just wanted to lighten the load because of either the end of subwave 3 of Wave I of Major THREE as the primary or "B" wave.

But we could skyrocket from here. This week or next will tell lots.

By the way...most big banks are toast. If we get to 1150 the next couple weeks it will because of the banks.

Cramer says "We're on the verge of something that could take down America, and the world, and change your life forever. All wealth gone. People fighting in the streets. Governments overthrown. Money worthless."

http://www.thestreet.com/video/10465193/cr...sh-america.html

Please do your own due dilgence. This is NOT investment advice.

I've known ALOT of traders. Among them I've only know 2 who could utilize Eliot Waves in a predictive way to make money. One of those two is dead and the other made 6,410% returns last year. Eliot Waves are a great way to look back at what happened in the past, and even that count will be subjective and differ from the next guys. That said, if you're going to utilize this tool, only use what you have generated from your own effort. No surer way to penury than followinng someone elses EW count. Just ask any former Eliot Wave International subscriber.

All i can say guys is use your brains and

diversify

diversify

diversify

[Harmonica]

An impulse wave (5-wave) down has just showed up on the 60-min. timeframe.

It is followed by a 3-wave move up.

I've been waiting for something like this.

But until $980 (60-min) and $968 (240-min.) break, LONG is the way to be.

Hasta manana

[HardenedSoul]

Actually gold is an excellent conductor and is widely used in electronics. There is lower demand for electronics and hence less demand for gold now. As soon as the consumer price index is adjusted to reflect lower prices of houses, you'll be able to buy more gold with less dollars. Right now gold is artificially kept high by people dumping currencies and looking for safe-havens. As soon as they find a new safe-haven, they'll dump gold and prices will come down. I'd be looking to pick up gold at the bottom and when the CPI is lowered. Just guessing here, but the lowest I've ever seen gold is $400/oz so at that price-point or near there would be a good time to buy.

Remember, gold is always a gamble. If somebody makes a big find and floods the market with cheap gold, you're screwed. If many mines runs dry you could be sitting on a very valuable asset.

Utter drivel

What on earth are you on about ? " If somebody makes a big find and floods the market with cheap gold, you're screwed."

Someone call this guy a medic, sharpish . . .