Thai Bhat

[Merangue]

Give us a link.

http://<URL Automatically Removed>/2...nder-democrats/

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/artic...uKJFWsuPociBEAw

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=asia

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=new...id=a6WOwlZtZOq4

[Merangue]

Another thing to remember that Thai news has a tendency to ........ be upbeat about things when other countries news agencies prefer to hype any and all bad news to sell more copy.

There appears to be a blanket refusal to report much of anything that is bad at the moment. Anything that can be against the Government is tamed and reduced to the least offensive wording it can find.

This would mean that anyone talking down the economy had better be a very very brave man.

In the UK a Headline that reads

'Catastrophic crash as the economy goes into melt down!!!!!!!!!!!!!....... Is this the end of the world????????????'

Would read more like

'Exports figures suggest a slight lessening of orders may possibly be due in Thailand if things go really really badly'

were the same story to be printed in Thailand.

In reality it should probably look more like.

'Economy outlook bleak for the short term but will probably be OK over a couple of years. '

Edited February 20, 2009 by Merangue

[Naam]

THB is not falling, just the opposite, it is rising like crazy against most of the world currencies, which ahve depreciated between 15% and 100% against the USD in the past months.

THB is now about the same (slightly stronger indeed) compared to the USD than it was on December 1st, whilst other asian currencies are falling like stones.

Not suprise that:

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/econom...26-5-in-january

January exports fell 26%, this is just the antipasto, Thai ecomomy is set to crush in a terrible way and Tarisa and her crazy policy to keep the Baht amongst the strongest currencies in the world will be one of the culprit.

In these days THB is losing ground against the USD but it is rising against the other asian currencies -which are falling much sharply vs the USD

That means THB is losing competitivness more and more....just the opposite of what it needs right now.

Dozens of thousands of future jobless Thais will have to "thank" Miss tarisa.

Ms. Tarisa begs to differ and has in my view valid points. she claims that the drop in exports is not caused by the strong Baht but by the global economic situation. checking a dozen other countries (even industrialised ones) backs up her claim.

but looking at her explanation and opinions one has to take into consideration that she is only a rather uneducated Thai lady who -by sheer coincidence- was appointed Governor of the Bank of Thailand. what does she know about economy, globalisation, domestic inflation, currencies and handling reserves? isn't it time that she reads in Thaivisa the valuable advice of those who are educated, possess extensive knowledge how to run a Central Bank and steer a country's economy? i mean what's her stopping to ask us retired Brits, American, Germans, Aussies and Kiwis for clear instructions how to run her business? i can only shake my head about Ms. Tarisa being that stubborn!

[12DrinkMore]

http://<URL Automatically Removed>/2...nder-democrats/

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/artic...uKJFWsuPociBEAw

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=asia

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=new...id=a6WOwlZtZOq4

Thanks for the links. But I was looking for Ricardo to justify his statement

Sorry, but there were a reported half-million factory jobs lost, in the 4th Qtr of last year, not just several thousand. Which rather changes the overall picture.

[12DrinkMore]

but looking at her explanation and opinions one has to take into consideration that she is only a rather uneducated Thai lady who -by sheer coincidence- was appointed Governor of the Bank of Thailand. what does she know about economy, globalisation, domestic inflation, currencies and handling reserves? isn't it time that she reads in Thaivisa the valuable advice of those who are educated, possess extensive knowledge how to run a Central Bank and steer a country's economy? i mean what's her stopping to ask us retired Brits, American, Germans, Aussies and Kiwis for clear instructions how to run her business? i can only shake my head about Ms. Tarisa being that stubborn!

But in the case of Brown, Darling, Bush, Greenspan etc. I am sure that we would no way near as deep in the <deleted> if they had taken the trouble to read carefully through this forum and take on board some of the comments made here.............

:D :D

[johnefallis]

Maybe the Thais should have been as stupid as the idiots in the west and bankrupted the country.

And I'm sure the OP is really concerned about the welfare of the Thai people, nothing to do with his own currency being total crap.

Why can't the west be more like Thaialnd, they may also have a strong currency....lol

Your right maigo6

BUT

me myself would love it if the baht weaken back to 70 against the pound. Not gonna happen but im hoping. Got a family to look after.

Ps its spelt thailand not thaialand!!!

P.P.S. He didn't spell it Thaialand, he spelt it Thaialnd.

Time for Thaivisa to include...oh, wait, there is a spellchecker built in!

[chiang mai]

THB is not falling, just the opposite, it is rising like crazy against most of the world currencies, which ahve depreciated between 15% and 100% against the USD in the past months.

THB is now about the same (slightly stronger indeed) compared to the USD than it was on December 1st, whilst other asian currencies are falling like stones.

Not suprise that:

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/econom...26-5-in-january

January exports fell 26%, this is just the antipasto, Thai ecomomy is set to crush in a terrible way and Tarisa and her crazy policy to keep the Baht amongst the strongest currencies in the world will be one of the culprit.

In these days THB is losing ground against the USD but it is rising against the other asian currencies -which are falling much sharply vs the USD

That means THB is losing competitivness more and more....just the opposite of what it needs right now.

Dozens of thousands of future jobless Thais will have to "thank" Miss tarisa.

That's a very entertaining post, the information in it is mostly all incorrect but it is a funny post nevertheless.

[chiang mai]

THB is not falling, just the opposite, it is rising like crazy against most of the world currencies, which ahve depreciated between 15% and 100% against the USD in the past months.

THB is now about the same (slightly stronger indeed) compared to the USD than it was on December 1st, whilst other asian currencies are falling like stones.

Not suprise that:

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/econom...26-5-in-january

January exports fell 26%, this is just the antipasto, Thai ecomomy is set to crush in a terrible way and Tarisa and her crazy policy to keep the Baht amongst the strongest currencies in the world will be one of the culprit.

In these days THB is losing ground against the USD but it is rising against the other asian currencies -which are falling much sharply vs the USD

That means THB is losing competitivness more and more....just the opposite of what it needs right now.

Dozens of thousands of future jobless Thais will have to "thank" Miss tarisa.

I've just looked at http://www.x-rates.com/ and taken the 120 day history

So the THB against

HKD Lost 3%

CNY Lost 2%

MYR Gained 2%

SGD Gained 2%

TWD Gained 5%

more or less even Stevens, as a couple of percent fluctuation is normal

Then the THB marked gains against

INR Gained 8%

IDR Gained 70% (no idea what happened there, maybe time to take a holiday in Bali)

KRW Gained 30%

But against the Japanese

JPY Lost 20%

The THB and other Asian currencies in the first group seem to be tracking the USD, with small fluctuations.

"it is rising like crazy against most of the world currencies, which ahve depreciated between 15% and 100% against the USD in the past months."

Presumably you are mainly considering all the other Western currencies that personally affect you, which have fallen substantially against the USD.

Personally I would go with Tarisa's statement saying that the THB is not way out of line with the other Asian currencies, and not your "rising like crazy against most of the world currencies" blanket opinion.

Thank god we have a level headed woman running the Thai economy, otherwise the wildly gyrating testosterone powered Western males such as Brown, Darling, Greenspan, Bush etc would screw it up here as well.

Against the basket of twenty regional currencies that it is measured against (by the BOT), the Baht remains right in the middle.

[Marvo]

Against the basket of twenty regional currencies that it is measured against (by the BOT), the Baht remains right in the middle.

Surely the significant fact, when discussing the Baht Vs other currencies, is that over 80% (YES 80%!) of Thailand's export trade is conveyed in US dollars. The position of the Thai Baht Vs U$D must carry a bit of weight in decision making - whichever crazy way the BoT decisions are made.

[sorensen]

It is starting to become obvious in what direction the Thai Baht is moving:

[Naam]

It is starting to become obvious in what direction the Thai Baht is moving:

your graph shows Baht vs. one currency Sorensen and that distorts the picture. moreover the graph provides an optically misleading picture which at first sight indicates strength vs. USD (for the layman).

[thaihome]

Against the basket of twenty regional currencies that it is measured against (by the BOT), the Baht remains right in the middle.

Surely the significant fact, when discussing the Baht Vs other currencies, is that over 80% (YES 80%!) of Thailand's export trade is conveyed in US dollars. The position of the Thai Baht Vs U$D must carry a bit of weight in decision making - whichever crazy way the BoT decisions are made.

Just as important is the fact that the largest import, oil, is in USD, and a weakening baht against the USD causes fuel cost in Thailand to increase. And make no mistake, every part of the economy runs on diesel fuel. Recall last summer when fuel prices went through the roof and the government tried to subsidize diesel, it almost broke them.

I think the Baht is just about were it needs to be (against the USD) and it should continue its gradual weakening against the USD over the rest of the year, assuming oil cost stays at current levels. What it does against other western currencies doesn’t matter.

TH

[thaihome]

It is starting to become obvious in what direction the Thai Baht is moving:

your graph shows Baht vs. one currency Sorensen and that distorts the picture. moreover the graph provides an optically misleading picture which at first sight indicates strength vs. USD (for the layman).

I think it is appropriate to only show against the USD as it is really the only one that matters to Thailand. But it might be good to show also the USD index, which I understand show the relative strength/weakness of the dollar against a basket of major currencies. I don’t have that data. Maybe someone else could try.

Anyway, here is the THB/USD graph with reverse values so the weakening goes down.

TH

[12DrinkMore]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

Feb. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Japan, China, South Korea and 10 Southeast Asian nations agreed to form a $120 billion pool of foreign-exchange reserves that can be used by countries to defend their currencies amid the deepening global recession.

Looks like the Asians are preparing themselves against any fallout from the Western banking mess.

In the years since, Japan, China and South Korea together with the Asean economies have amassed more than $3.6 trillion of foreign-exchange reserves, about half of the global total.

Well, that IS a different story to the Western mess.

Will any of that money be used to bail out the Westerners? No I don't think so. It will be used to bolster the Asian economy. Makes Obamah's 800 Billion of extra debt look a feeble, doesn't it?

Anybody still think that Asia is going to suffer worse than the West? And does anybody REALLY still think that your GBP will be up there at 72 Baht ever again? More like 35 in six months.

[xbusman]

I still think its going to be worse in Asia than the west.

I also think that you will see the GBP at 72 again, maybe not in my lifetime, but I think it will see daylight after the night.

[cclub75]

Will any of that money be used to bail out the Westerners? No I don't think so. It will be used to bolster the Asian economy. Makes Obamah's 800 Billion of extra debt look a feeble, doesn't it?

The asian money... has been already used to bail out westerners... I mean the USA.

Japan and China are the biggest holders of US treasury securities !

http://www.treas.gov/tic/mfh.txt

They are trapped with this mountain of USD... What can they do ? Dump them ? If they do, they will loose everything. Quicker.

So tell me : what can they do ?

[AlexLah]

Could they buy up assets in the US in exchange?

[cclub75]

Could they buy up assets in the US in exchange?

Sure. They could. But that's not the urgent issue...

Here is the burning danger :

China urged to keep buying US Treasuries

Beijing - Hillary Clinton urged China on Sunday to continue buying US Treasuries, saying it would help get the American economy moving again and stimulate imports of Chinese goods.

"By continuing to support American Treasury instruments the Chinese are recognising our interconnection. We are truly going to rise or fall together," Clinton said at the US embassy shortly before leaving Beijing.

Bangkok Post

It's an astonishing statement, at the border of... black mail... !

"Rise or fall together"...

Voila the problem : the question is not to know what they can do with the mountain they already have... the question is : they can't stop.. buying more !

Even if they slow the pace... that could endanger the whole structure.

It's scary to hear Clinton repeating the idea that has fueled the mania of the previous years (china buys US securities... with the money they earn by selling stuff to USA... aka giving money to a customer so he can buy from you)...

It's madness.

We are really fxxx.

[Lasic1]

Your response doesn't make any sense. Thailand's economy is based on tourism, exported agricultural and manufactured products and foreign investment. The Yen has not fallen, the dollar is still stable and the Euro is holding it's own. Those in power advocate a strong baht which I suspect is being propped up to increase profits from foreign investment. However these hedge funds who invested in emerging markets are drying up. The consequence; less foreign investment, unpaid commercial loans, less exports and more people out of work. The baht is starting to weaken already and will inevitably start to float to make exports less expensive in the short term and may increase tourism. Long term, this is a bubble economy and relapse into the IMF crisis of 97-98 is certainly possible. Commercial real estate is already pulling back creating an unpaid balance of massive banking debts.

You must understand that it is not the Baht that is high / strong, it is the foreign currencies that are weak!

"When to lower it like most western countries have done, would make Thai goods so much cheaper to the outside world"

Surely you are not suggesting that the government manipulate the value of the baht??

[Naam]

Your response doesn't make any sense.

your selection of font size makes even less sense!

[Lasic1]

But size does matter!

LMAO,

Laser

[Naam]

But size does matter!

sure, it matters for people who have nothing to say

[AlexLah]

Lasik,can you use standard font? and size and color ?

[loong]

The problem is not the Thai economy it is the economy of their export partners.

I believe that though exports have fallen, Thailand is still a net exporter. Correct me if I'm wrong

In an ideal world the value of exports and imports should be roughly the same, so the western economies should be looking at how this can be done.

The western countries need to start exporting to Asia, but what? I don't know.

[12DrinkMore]

China urged to keep buying US Treasuries

Beijing - Hillary Clinton urged China on Sunday to continue buying US Treasuries, saying it would help get the American economy moving again and stimulate imports of Chinese goods.

Voila the problem : the question is not to know what they can do with the mountain they already have... the question is : they can't stop.. buying more !

Even if they slow the pace... that could endanger the whole structure.

It's scary to hear Clinton repeating the idea that has fueled the mania of the previous years (china buys US securities... with the money they earn by selling stuff to USA... aka giving money to a customer so he can buy from you)...

The Chinese have already stated that they do not like this situation, which is basically blackmail. They will now be looking for a long term solution to get out of it, as indeed anybody would. The "either you play ball or we will take you down with us" arrogant attitude of Clinton will have sent more than a few top Chinese brains into overdrive looking for a solution.

I think we are heading towards a slow reduction in the coupling of the Western and the Eastern economies. The Asians have already established a fund to support the Asian currencies, the Yuan is being allowed to be used in limited Asian transactions, but this will surely increase. And the tourist industry is increasingly being marketed more to other Asian countries.

I don't know if anyone has thought about it, or maybe it is blindingly obvious, but after a bit of thought the answer to the question "Could the Chinese Dollar mountain actually be used to bail out the USA?" is really no. Because it is mostly based on IOU's from the States. So its a bit like handing back an IOU for all the Chinese goods that have been sold to America, reducing the debt the States has with China, but leaving China empty handed after manufacturing all those goodies.

And in effect the only benefit to the States is that they would have to pay less USD in interest to China for holding the T-Notes, Treasuries etc.

It's a bit like I do business with a widget seller, but as I don't have any cash I give him 1,000 12Dollars in the form of a piece of paper. He accepts this because he stupidly thinks that these 12Dollars are worth something, but he does want some interest for holding them. So I pay him 60 12Dollars every year. After a couple of years he now has say 1,300 12Dollars, but I now have to find some finance for a crumbling bank.

Now it seems pretty obvious that I can't go the widget seller, because all he has are my 12Dollar debts, so how can I borrow my own debts? And even if he gives me all the IOUs back, I STILL don't have any money. So what's the best plan? I print another load of 12Dollars for the crumbly bank. And as I still want to buy widgets but have nothing to trade in exchange, then off I trot to the widget seller and give him another load of printed 12Dollars.

If I was the widget seller, I would be having the heeby jeebies at seeing all these 12Dollars being printed as if there was no end to them.

So I guess the Chinese are having the mother of heeby jeebies at the moment, as they could be left with holding nothing but worthless US Dollars.

Anybody in TV want a few 12Dollars in exchange for something useful like Chang? I have a very good "made in China" HP printer.

Edited February 23, 2009 by 12DrinkMore

[binnsy]

if and when they devalue the Thai Baht which wont be far away all those thai companies can start exporting again

[sorensen]

China urged to keep buying US Treasuries

Beijing - Hillary Clinton urged China on Sunday to continue buying US Treasuries, saying it would help get the American economy moving again and stimulate imports of Chinese goods.

Voila the problem : the question is not to know what they can do with the mountain they already have... the question is : they can't stop.. buying more !

Even if they slow the pace... that could endanger the whole structure.

It's scary to hear Clinton repeating the idea that has fueled the mania of the previous years (china buys US securities... with the money they earn by selling stuff to USA... aka giving money to a customer so he can buy from you)...

The Chinese have already stated that they do not like this situation, which is basically blackmail. They will now be looking for a long term solution to get out of it, as indeed anybody would. The "either you play ball or we will take you down with us" arrogant attitude of Clinton will have sent more than a few top Chinese brains into overdrive looking for a solution.

I think we are heading towards a slow reduction in the coupling of the Western and the Eastern economies. The Asians have already established a fund to support the Asian currencies, the Yuan is being allowed to be used in limited Asian transactions, but this will surely increase. And the tourist industry is increasingly being marketed more to other Asian countries.

I don't know if anyone has thought about it, or maybe it is blindingly obvious, but after a bit of thought the answer to the question "Could the Chinese Dollar mountain actually be used to bail out the USA?" is really no. Because it is mostly based on IOU's from the States. So its a bit like handing back an IOU for all the Chinese goods that have been sold to America, reducing the debt the States has with China, but leaving China empty handed after manufacturing all those goodies.

And in effect the only benefit to the States is that they would have to pay less USD in interest to China for holding the T-Notes, Treasuries etc.

It's a bit like I do business with a widget seller, but as I don't have any cash I give him 1,000 12Dollars in the form of a piece of paper. He accepts this because he stupidly thinks that these 12Dollars are worth something, but he does want some interest for holding them. So I pay him 60 12Dollars every year. After a couple of years he now has say 1,300 12Dollars, but I now have to find some finance for a crumbling bank.

Now it seems pretty obvious that I can't go the widget seller, because all he has are my 12Dollar debts, so how can I borrow my own debts? And even if he gives me all the IOUs back, I STILL don't have any money. So what's the best plan? I print another load of 12Dollars for the crumbly bank. And as I still want to buy widgets but have nothing to trade in exchange, then off I trot to the widget seller and give him another load of printed 12Dollars.

If I was the widget seller, I would be having the heeby jeebies at seeing all these 12Dollars being printed as if there was no end to them.

So I guess the Chinese are having the mother of heeby jeebies at the moment, as they could be left with holding nothing but worthless US Dollars.

Anybody in TV want a few 12Dollars in exchange for something useful like Chang? I have a very good "made in China" HP printer.

It doesn't have to be an one sided trade. Your widget seller could buy some product or service from you and pay in 12Dollars, same as China could buy US made products boosting the US economy and equalizing the trade deficit.

[OiOiOi]

They say that Thais aren't affected by the strong baht. I know one who's suffering and who goes ballistic every time someone even mentions the Bot. My girlfriend! The 150 pounds pocket money I give her every month has gone down from 10500 last year to 7500 baht now.

Hey, all non-Americans contributing "pocket money" to our TG's are feeling the squeeze both home and in Thailand. I choose to maintain the BAHT pocket money, at my expense. You have taken the easy way and are making it harder for your TG. Have you considered cutting the losses and compromising? Suggestion....is 200 pounds too hard on you? If so imagine the effect on your G/F?

So what if you split the difference and increased the pocket money to 175 pounds??

Seems fair.

[Groongthep]

It's a bit like I do business with a widget seller, but as I don't have any cash I give him 1,000 12Dollars in the form of a piece of paper. He accepts this because he stupidly thinks that these 12Dollars are worth something, but he does want some interest for holding them. So I pay him 60 12Dollars every year. After a couple of years he now has say 1,300 12Dollars, but I now have to find some finance for a crumbling bank.

No, it's nothing like that. Remember, US companies bought Chinese goods with cash not treasury securities. Chinese private companies and the Chinese government who acquired US dollars through taxes and state owned companies bought the US Treasury Bills by their own free will. All investments involve some risk. The US government backs up the treasury securities so the only way they will become worthless is if the US government goes broke which is very unlikely. The risk to the Chinese in this case is that the US dollar will crash and the treasuries will be greatly devalued. Something the Chinese should have thought about all these years when they were keeping the yuan artificially weak and causing the gigantic trade imbalance not just with the US but with most of the rest of the world as well.

Clinton and some economists believe that helping the US economy recover by asking the Chinese to continue to buy T-Bills (and thus help finance the Obama stimulus plans) the economic system which fueled the enormous growth in the Chinese economy over the last 15 years will be (at least somewhat) restored. This is nothing like "blackmail". Just exactly what does the US have to blackmail the Chinese with anyway? The situation was created by greed on both sides of the Pacific. The US banks made easy credit too available to the consumer and the Chinese kept the yuan disproportionately weak. The US is not threatening the Chinese, in fact by all news accounts the Clinton visit was well received by the Chinese who also fear that if nothing is done then both the US and the Chinese economies will tank. The Chinese are quite aware that if the rest of the world cannot afford to buy their exports then they themselves will suffer as much as anyone else. Clinton and the Obama administration deserve credit for trying to find a pragmatic mutually acceptable solution to a very complicated situation.

Edited February 23, 2009 by Groongthep

[loong]

<br />

They say that Thais aren't affected by the strong baht. I know one who's suffering and who goes ballistic every time someone even mentions the Bot. My girlfriend! The 150 pounds pocket money I give her every month has gone down from 10500 last year to 7500 baht now.

<br /><br />Hey, all non-Americans contributing "pocket money" to our TG's are feeling the squeeze both home and in Thailand. I choose to maintain the BAHT pocket money, at my expense. You have taken the easy way and are making it harder for your TG. Have you considered cutting the losses and compromising? Suggestion....is 200 pounds too hard on you? If so imagine the effect on your G/F?<br />So what if you split the difference and increased the pocket money to 175 pounds?? <br />Seems fair.<br /> <img src="style_emoticons/default/rolleyes.gif" style="vertical-align:middle" emoid="" border="0" alt="rolleyes.gif" /><br />

<br /><br /><br />

All depends on his situation don't you think?

If it is 7,500 Baht pocket money, ie not for essentials like caring for the children, she should be preapared to cut back a little.

After all many Thai family units do not even have 5000 Baht per month income.