Property Over The Next Two Years Let Us Forecast.

[mjohnson282]

In good old Mission Impossible Style - this thread will self destruct in two years (plus a little time to debate and hopfully allow us to start up a new thread )

In two years from this date

2009-02-19 10:31:50

Deleveraging, deflation, over supply, collapse of demand, down is the trend. Oh yeah, and what should matter most values that are not sustainable at current income levels.

The Orleander may look finished but it is not really close. I assume the developer is either out of money or come to grips with economic reality. The building is probably 10% occupied and the remainder of the units are vanilla shell condition. They have not even completed the common areas on some floors. Feel sorry for the people that bought there. They cannot even keep the pool clean!

I am still trying to find an class A building in Bangkok as most of the finish work appears to fall considerably short. Makes me wonder about the quality of structure. I am sure they are for the most part OK but if you think it cannot happen google Harmon las vegas construction defect. How to turn 49 stories into 29 or less. Well at least they caught this one. Cash strapped developers seeing negative returns will go cheap and cut costs when possible. Sometimes legally and sometimes not. As a rule I would not buy anything currently under construction now as I am not at all familiar with construction defect laws in Thailand but I would assume they are not strong.

Is this you bingobongo?

This "new member" sounds exactly like you, same old doom and gloom you have been posting for years

It is isn't it? its you in disguise.

Same old doom and gloom? Have you bothered to read any measure of economic activity in the last year? Sorry to disappoint but I am a new member. And you apparently have your head in the sand!

[bingobongo]

In good old Mission Impossible Style - this thread will self destruct in two years (plus a little time to debate and hopfully allow us to start up a new thread )

In two years from this date

2009-02-19 10:31:50

Deleveraging, deflation, over supply, collapse of demand, down is the trend. Oh yeah, and what should matter most values that are not sustainable at current income levels.

The Orleander may look finished but it is not really close. I assume the developer is either out of money or come to grips with economic reality. The building is probably 10% occupied and the remainder of the units are vanilla shell condition. They have not even completed the common areas on some floors. Feel sorry for the people that bought there. They cannot even keep the pool clean!

I am still trying to find an class A building in Bangkok as most of the finish work appears to fall considerably short. Makes me wonder about the quality of structure. I am sure they are for the most part OK but if you think it cannot happen google Harmon las vegas construction defect. How to turn 49 stories into 29 or less. Well at least they caught this one. Cash strapped developers seeing negative returns will go cheap and cut costs when possible. Sometimes legally and sometimes not. As a rule I would not buy anything currently under construction now as I am not at all familiar with construction defect laws in Thailand but I would assume they are not strong.

Is this you bingobongo?

This "new member" sounds exactly like you, same old doom and gloom you have been posting for years

It is isn't it? its you in disguise.

sorry there a**hat, no alias from me, i was right in 2007 when i called the 50% haircut on the SET and made more money in the past 2 years than you made in your last 10, doom and gloom? no, i just call it like it is and made a bundle (sorry your denial made you poorer)

aren't you the same clown who wanted to invest 3 million baht on another thread? here is a business idea, why dont you sell front row seats from all those empty Bangkok condo balconies so that way folks can get a front row seat of the red and yellow "parade" about to begin.........that should be a selling point in your glossy brochure

oh well, you will soon be seprated from that as well, either by a lack of business or the baht about to head over the cliff

by the way, how will you spin the evacuation of ASEAN members via helicopter? spin monkey, spin

don't hate me livinginthethirdworld becasue i know how to play the stupidity of LOS whereas you (and your family) are a victim of it

Edited April 12, 2009 by bingobongo

[JR Texas]

In good old Mission Impossible Style - this thread will self destruct in two years (plus a little time to debate and hopfully allow us to start up a new thread )

In two years from this date

2009-02-19 10:31:50

Deleveraging, deflation, over supply, collapse of demand, down is the trend. Oh yeah, and what should matter most values that are not sustainable at current income levels.

The Orleander may look finished but it is not really close. I assume the developer is either out of money or come to grips with economic reality. The building is probably 10% occupied and the remainder of the units are vanilla shell condition. They have not even completed the common areas on some floors. Feel sorry for the people that bought there. They cannot even keep the pool clean!

I am still trying to find an class A building in Bangkok as most of the finish work appears to fall considerably short. Makes me wonder about the quality of structure. I am sure they are for the most part OK but if you think it cannot happen google Harmon las vegas construction defect. How to turn 49 stories into 29 or less. Well at least they caught this one. Cash strapped developers seeing negative returns will go cheap and cut costs when possible. Sometimes legally and sometimes not. As a rule I would not buy anything currently under construction now as I am not at all familiar with construction defect laws in Thailand but I would assume they are not strong.

Is this you bingobongo?

This "new member" sounds exactly like you, same old doom and gloom you have been posting for years

It is isn't it? its you in disguise.

sorry there a**hat, no alias from me, i was right in 2007 when i called the 50% haircut on the SET and made more money in the past 2 years than you made in your last 10, doom and gloom? no, i just call it like it is and made a bundle (sorry your denial made you poorer)

aren't you the same clown who wanted to invest 3 million baht on another thread? here is a business idea, why dont you sell front row seats from all those empty Bangkok condo balconies so that way folks can get a front row seat of the red and yellow "parade" about to begin.........that should be a selling point in your glossy brochure

oh well, you will soon be seprated from that as well, either by a lack of business or the baht about to head over the cliff

by the way, how will you spin the evacuation of ASEAN members via helicopter? spin monkey, spin

don't hate me livinginthethirdworld becasue i know how to play the stupidity of LOS whereas you (and your family) are a victim of it

:jerk: Thailand is a sinking ship! Attention real estate hounds........your worst nightmare is about to come true. I have no sympathy for you.

[Heng]

Curiously, does the 'anti-buy' crowd at least give folks (total strangers) "permission" to buy one piece of property to live in? Or is that against their best interests as well?

[donx]

Curiously, does the 'anti-buy' crowd at least give folks (total strangers) "permission" to buy one piece of property to live in? Or is that against their best interests as well?

Come on, Heng. We all know that bingobongo is HOMELESS!

[Heng]

It's like their whole argument is:

"I gotta take a leak. I think you should too."

[trogers]

Thailand is a sinking ship! Attention real estate hounds........your worst nightmare is about to come true. I have no sympathy for you.

Hmmm...and I wonder why such a person still remain in Thailand...since it is a sinking ship?

From comments in this forum, I can weed out the herd followers and the smart investors - those who cannot see beyond their noses, and those of who see decades ahead.

I have been here since 1983, and have been though 6 political upheavels. And I do not state my trust in the future of this country through words, but through actions. Those who can see through the smoke, now is the time to pick and choose investments. There are opportunities - but they are long term. If you only invest in bubbles, good luck.

[VegasVic]

In two years from this date

2009-02-19 10:31:50

Deleveraging, deflation, over supply, collapse of demand, down is the trend. Oh yeah, and what should matter most values that are not sustainable at current income levels.

The Orleander may look finished but it is not really close. I assume the developer is either out of money or come to grips with economic reality. The building is probably 10% occupied and the remainder of the units are vanilla shell condition. They have not even completed the common areas on some floors. Feel sorry for the people that bought there. They cannot even keep the pool clean!

I am still trying to find an class A building in Bangkok as most of the finish work appears to fall considerably short. Makes me wonder about the quality of structure. I am sure they are for the most part OK but if you think it cannot happen google Harmon las vegas construction defect. How to turn 49 stories into 29 or less. Well at least they caught this one. Cash strapped developers seeing negative returns will go cheap and cut costs when possible. Sometimes legally and sometimes not. As a rule I would not buy anything currently under construction now as I am not at all familiar with construction defect laws in Thailand but I would assume they are not strong.

Is this you bingobongo?

This "new member" sounds exactly like you, same old doom and gloom you have been posting for years

It is isn't it? its you in disguise.

sorry there a**hat, no alias from me, i was right in 2007 when i called the 50% haircut on the SET and made more money in the past 2 years than you made in your last 10, doom and gloom? no, i just call it like it is and made a bundle (sorry your denial made you poorer)

aren't you the same clown who wanted to invest 3 million baht on another thread? here is a business idea, why dont you sell front row seats from all those empty Bangkok condo balconies so that way folks can get a front row seat of the red and yellow "parade" about to begin.........that should be a selling point in your glossy brochure

oh well, you will soon be seprated from that as well, either by a lack of business or the baht about to head over the cliff

by the way, how will you spin the evacuation of ASEAN members via helicopter? spin monkey, spin

don't hate me livinginthethirdworld becasue i know how to play the stupidity of LOS whereas you (and your family) are a victim of it

:jerk: Thailand is a sinking ship! Attention real estate hounds........your worst nightmare is about to come true. I have no sympathy for you.

J.R. While I agree with you that any foriegner thinking of buying a house or condo in Thailand right now needs to get their head examined, I do think that purchasing farm land (at a fair price) in Thailand could prove to be a very good long term investment

[bingobongo]

hi livinginexile, now that the red "parade" has begun, i was thinking of some business options for all those empty Bangkok condos, please feel free to add....

1) weapons storage

2) longterm stay for redshirt protestors who need a place to freshen up

3) longterm stay for soldiers who will are unable to get rest in their tanks, personnel carriers etc

4) stunning views for foreigners hoping to get a glimpse of the colorful and mechanized "parade"

5) place for tourists who are unable to leave once the airport is closed again

6) access to heliopads for state/foreign digniatries for helicopter rides

7) storage for fuel drums once the price of oil/gas begins climbing again

8) storage for all the hard curency/gold/silver once the capital flight begins

9) rental of tank and armored personnel carrier parking spaces subsidized by the government

let me know of any other condo investment ideas so i can be sure to write a check.

thanks, your humble bongo

[midas]

Thailand is a sinking ship! Attention real estate hounds........your worst nightmare is about to come true. I have no sympathy for you.

Hmmm...and I wonder why such a person still remain in Thailand...since it is a sinking ship?

From comments in this forum, I can weed out the herd followers and the smart investors - those who cannot see beyond their noses, and those of who see decades ahead.

I have been here since 1983, and have been though 6 political upheavels. And I do not state my trust in the future of this country through words, but through actions. Those who can see through the smoke, now is the time to pick and choose investments. There are opportunities - but they are long term. If you only invest in bubbles, good luck.

trogers it's you can't see beyond your nose because you have so much tunnel vision

regarding Thailand and its supposed potential.!

You may have been here since 1983 and back then maybe Thailand did offer something

which very few of its neighboring Southeast Asian countries could do. But

that has all changed now and as time goes on you'll see far more focused and STABLE

countries like Vietnam, Laos and even Cambodia starting to compete

very favorably for would be foreign investors and entrepreneurs.

Yes I live here an it's a very fun place to live

and just enjoy it- but I certainly wouldn't invest

one satang here and that was before the current crisis.

What is so damned special about this place that you put up with all the

crap to qualify for work permits, very unfair rules of ownership etc etc anyway?

take off your rose tinted glasses.

[think_too_mut]

Curiously, does the 'anti-buy' crowd at least give folks (total strangers) "permission" to buy one piece of property to live in? Or is that against their best interests as well?

Come on, Heng. We all know that bingobongo is HOMELESS!

I am not, I bought.

What I agree with Bingobongo is - an investment in Thai property market is a dud.

I expect nothing from my 2BR/2Bath + parking + a resort style pool, in the outskirts - other than to have a pad there, probably never to live in, unless I find myself jobless and retract into Thailand to sit the crisis out, on the cheap.

The condo is sitting dormant.

With the recent developments, I even doubt we'll go there this year at all. I don't care who closes the airport or how justified the state of emergency is or what shirt colors are winning. If they could force ASEAN leaders into evacuation by military choppers, they can make much more trouble to me and my family if they went there and wanted to return to Japan.

[hhgz]

"I bought...an investment in Thai property market is a dud...I expect nothing from my 2BR/2Bat...The condo is sitting dormant."

You bought it, refuse to live in it, and you complain the the political unrest has made the investment worthless. Since you refuse to use it, YOU made it a bad investment. I hardly understand why you think you can offer intelligent investment advice.

[think_too_mut]

"I bought...an investment in Thai property market is a dud...I expect nothing from my 2BR/2Bat...The condo is sitting dormant."

You bought it, refuse to live in it, and you complain the the political unrest has made the investment worthless. Since you refuse to use it, YOU made it a bad investment. I hardly understand why you think you can offer intelligent investment advice.

Of course I refuse to live in it. It's in a wrong country. That country may tolerate me, submit me into their humiliating visa rules but still no sleeping under the bridges.

I can only be gratefull if they tolerate me while I am recomposing after (hopefully not) job loss. Make money out of it? get lost.

What "intelligent" investment advice in Thai property you want? That does not exist. Apart from a few who got lucky, there is no system.

Even where the system was "house prices never go down", it has all but crashed.

Unrests or not.

[trogers]

I expect nothing from my 2BR/2Bath + parking + a resort style pool, in the outskirts - other than to have a pad there, probably never to live in, unless I find myself jobless and retract into Thailand to sit the crisis out, on the cheap.

The condo is sitting dormant.

Sounds like Floraville.

You fell in love with the concept, but made the mistake on location if you had the intention on leasing the property for a reasonable yield.

For instance, I would not buy any property along Phahonyothin road though condos there are 10% cheaper than those along Sukhumvit. I cannot identify demand for accommodation from any specific foreign customers.

[trogers]

But that has all changed now and as time goes on you'll see far more focused and STABLE

countries like Vietnam, Laos and even Cambodia starting to compete

very favorably for would be foreign investors and entrepreneurs.

Good for you if you can buy freehold properties in these countries. And may I add, they have very trustworthy lawyers and law enforcement...

[TexasRanger]

I just finished our family home but am thinking it might be nice to buy a condo in Bangkok as we currently rent. I don't see it as an investment of course, but at the moment it seems better than putting money in savings. I'll say one thing though, they don't seem to be getting any cheaper

[trogers]

I just finished our family home but am thinking it might be nice to buy a condo in Bangkok as we currently rent. I don't see it as an investment of course, but at the moment it seems better than putting money in savings. I'll say one thing though, they don't seem to be getting any cheaper

There are a few condo units at President Park Sukhumvit (Soi 24) that will be up in forclosure auction by the Legal Execution Department. Go to their office to get more details. You may get lucky and secure a unit 15-20% below market prices. Present market price is about Bt55,000/m2.

The units there are over 200m2 and too large for my investment portfolio. But for residence, it may suit you.

Edited April 12, 2009 by trogers

[pkrv]

But that has all changed now and as time goes on you'll see far more focused and STABLE

countries like Vietnam, Laos and even Cambodia starting to compete

very favorably for would be foreign investors and entrepreneurs.

Good for you if you can buy freehold properties in these countries. And may I add, they have very trustworthy lawyers and law enforcement...

To the very best of my knowledge as a foreigner you cannot buy freehold in these countries. For Vietnam I think if you are married to a Vietnamese you are allowed to buy some sort of 30 year leasehold that you are not allowed to make profit on and must surrender/sell if you leave the country. There was an interesting thread on this that I seem unable to find via a quick search.

midas can you point us at your research on freehold property ownership (of any form) in Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia? I do have an active interest.

[johnnyk]

For those who do want to buy in Thailand (for a variety of reasons) I would be sniffing around properties owned by falangs who want to bail out of the current situation.

Snarkers, don't bother posting that people who want to buy are fools. Everyone has their reasons.

[trogers]

But that has all changed now and as time goes on you'll see far more focused and STABLE

countries like Vietnam, Laos and even Cambodia starting to compete

very favorably for would be foreign investors and entrepreneurs.

Good for you if you can buy freehold properties in these countries. And may I add, they have very trustworthy lawyers and law enforcement...

To the very best of my knowledge as a foreigner you cannot buy freehold in these countries. For Vietnam I think if you are married to a Vietnamese you are allowed to buy some sort of 30 year leasehold that you are not allowed to make profit on and must surrender/sell if you leave the country. There was an interesting thread on this that I seem unable to find via a quick search.

midas can you point us at your research on freehold property ownership (of any form) in Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia? I do have an active interest.

Here is one for Cambodia:

http://www.angkorrealestate.com/index.php?...vice_for_buyers

[think_too_mut]

I expect nothing from my 2BR/2Bath + parking + a resort style pool, in the outskirts - other than to have a pad there, probably never to live in, unless I find myself jobless and retract into Thailand to sit the crisis out, on the cheap.

The condo is sitting dormant.

Sounds like Floraville.

You fell in love with the concept, but made the mistake on location if you had the intention on leasing the property for a reasonable yield.

No, not Floraville. it's Parkland Srinakarin

No mistake with location: I have no need to ever set my foot into Bangkok city again. Everything that Bangkok has (except western fine dining at western prices but I am not coming to Thailand for that), the nearby shopping malls would have too. It's on the right side of the airport and eastern seaboard.

For instance, I would not buy any property along Phahonyothin road though condos there are 10% cheaper than those along Sukhumvit. I cannot identify demand for accommodation from any specific foreign customers.

It's actually very easy to rent out. Prices are 14-16K baht per month. Many factories, hospitals, schools, shopping malls around. Not much but the unit was 2.25Mil only, not 5-6 mil or more.

In that price range, it will always rent, that market is foreigner insensitive. I just don't want anyone there as we want to have it ready whenever we want or can go.

It also poses as an insurance: if something happened, easy renting would support family living upcountry. While unrentable and unsellable 6-8 mil (where asking price for rent is 60-80K) condo at Thong Lor would just make them walk away and never admint they have anything to do with it.

[trogers]

I expect nothing from my 2BR/2Bath + parking + a resort style pool, in the outskirts - other than to have a pad there, probably never to live in, unless I find myself jobless and retract into Thailand to sit the crisis out, on the cheap.

The condo is sitting dormant.

Sounds like Floraville.

You fell in love with the concept, but made the mistake on location if you had the intention on leasing the property for a reasonable yield.

No, not Floraville. it's Parkland Srinakarin

No mistake with location: I have no need to ever set my foot into Bangkok city again. Everything that Bangkok has (except western fine dining at western prices but I am not coming to Thailand for that), the nearby shopping malls would have too. It's on the right side of the airport and eastern seaboard.

For instance, I would not buy any property along Phahonyothin road though condos there are 10% cheaper than those along Sukhumvit. I cannot identify demand for accommodation from any specific foreign customers.

It's actually very easy to rent out. Prices are 14-16K baht per month. Many factories, hospitals, schools, shopping malls around. Not much but the unit was 2.25Mil only, not 5-6 mil or more.

In that price range, it will always rent, that market is foreigner insensitive. I just don't want anyone there as we want to have it ready whenever we want or can go.

It also poses as an insurance: if something happened, easy renting would support family living upcountry. While unrentable and unsellable 6-8 mil (where asking price for rent is 60-80K) condo at Thong Lor would just make them walk away and never admint they have anything to do with it.

Thong Lor is a fashion thing. Used to be "The Place" for foreign CEOs with company car and driver. I cannot imagine the difficulty of the average expat walking 1-2 km to get to the BTS, and still pay Bt60,000 a month for a 2-bedroom condo there.

I have a 2-bedroom at Prakhanong renting out at Bt20,000/mth. Bought it for Bt2.45m (70m2). It is 600m from BTS.

Edited April 13, 2009 by trogers

[think_too_mut]

Thong Lor is a fashion thing. Used to be "The Place" for foreign CEOs with company car and driver. I cannot imagine the difficulty of the average expat walking 1-2 km to get to the BTS, and still pay Bt60,000 a month for a 2-bedroom condo there.

I have a 2-bedroom at Prakhanong renting out at Bt20,000/mth. Bought it for Bt2.45m (70m2). It is 600m from BTS.

Foreign CEOs are in the 100K+ baht a month market as they have housing allowance.

Foreigners (or well off Thais) would hardly pay more than 40K baht out of their own pocket.

That leaves the properties in between in a limbo, harder to rent than lower and highest end of the market.

Last 2 years in Bangkok we were at Phrakhanong (Suhumvit Plus) where 2BR were renting for 30-40K. Our 1BR was 20K.

I was thinking of buying in there but it would be too expensive to let it idle and (then) returns were lower than simple money in the Oz bank.

2 BR (73sqm 2 baths) were 5.5 mil and renting for 40K when we left. Real estate at the ground floor showed us 4 that lost their tenants after initial 2 years and were still idling 4 months later.

Edited April 13, 2009 by think_too_mut

[trogers]

Thong Lor is a fashion thing. Used to be "The Place" for foreign CEOs with company car and driver. I cannot imagine the difficulty of the average expat walking 1-2 km to get to the BTS, and still pay Bt60,000 a month for a 2-bedroom condo there.

I have a 2-bedroom at Prakhanong renting out at Bt20,000/mth. Bought it for Bt2.45m (70m2). It is 600m from BTS.

Foreign CEOs are in the 100K+ baht a month market as they have housing allowance.

Foreigners (or well off Thais) would hardly pay more than 40K baht out of their own pocket.

That leaves the properties in between in a limbo, harder to rent than lower and highest end of the market.

Last 2 years in Bangkok we were at Phrakhanong (Suhumvit Plus) where 2BR were renting for 30-40K. Our 1BR was 20K.

I was thinking of buying in there but it would be too expensive to let it idle and (then) returns were lower than simple money in the Oz bank.

2 BR (73sqm 2 baths) were 5.5 mil and renting for 40K when we left. Real estate at the ground floor showed us 4 that lost their tenants after initial 2 years and were still idling 4 months later.

Yup, quite a few former tenants in Sukhumvit Plus moved into where my unit is, Waterford Rama 4. Similar floor area at almost half the rental rates.

[VegasVic]

Given the current state of civil unrest in Thailand, it looks as though those who voted that property values would be lower two years from now will be correct

[trogers]

Given the current state of civil unrest in Thailand, it looks as though those who voted that property values would be lower two years from now will be correct

Have seen this emotional reaction back in 1991 - just before the showdown between protesters and Gen Suchinda along Ramkhampang road. I was staying next to the Mall 3 then, and had to pass through road blocks manned by the protesters to get home.

Edited April 13, 2009 by trogers

[think_too_mut]

"I bought...an investment in Thai property market is a dud...I expect nothing from my 2BR/2Bat...The condo is sitting dormant."

You bought it, refuse to live in it, and you complain the the political unrest has made the investment worthless. Since you refuse to use it, YOU made it a bad investment. I hardly understand why you think you can offer intelligent investment advice.

No, no, backflip....it is your "investment" of 6 mil that is worth it's weight in shit, even before the coup.

Mine is not an investment, what is not an investment can not be "bad investment".

As a rentable safety net it may be enough for family to survive living off it upcountry. Yours is useless, unsellabe and unrentable. Look how big your problem is since you have been stumbling from site to site, banning after banning, just to scream out your frustration.

[pkrv]

But that has all changed now and as time goes on you'll see far more focused and STABLE

countries like Vietnam, Laos and even Cambodia starting to compete

very favorably for would be foreign investors and entrepreneurs.

Good for you if you can buy freehold properties in these countries. And may I add, they have very trustworthy lawyers and law enforcement...

To the very best of my knowledge as a foreigner you cannot buy freehold in these countries. For Vietnam I think if you are married to a Vietnamese you are allowed to buy some sort of 30 year leasehold that you are not allowed to make profit on and must surrender/sell if you leave the country. There was an interesting thread on this that I seem unable to find via a quick search.

midas can you point us at your research on freehold property ownership (of any form) in Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia? I do have an active interest.

Here is one for Cambodia:

http://www.angkorrealestate.com/index.php?...vice_for_buyers

So as I said no freehold.

[midas]

To the very best of my knowledge as a foreigner you cannot buy freehold in these countries. For Vietnam I think if you are married to a Vietnamese you are allowed to buy some sort of 30 year leasehold that you are not allowed to make profit on and must surrender/sell if you leave the country. There was an interesting thread on this that I seem unable to find via a quick search.

midas can you point us at your research on freehold property ownership (of any form) in Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia? I do have an active interest.

I wasn't just talking about condominium ownership in those countries

when I talked about investment.

I was talking about those countries being an increasingly

better option for business investment such as manufacturing but of course

this will also indirectly negatively impact the Bangkok condominium

market even further. If I was a manufacturer Thailand right now

would be the last place I would ever to choose to set up a facility.

Not just because of the riots on the streets but because

I could open a factory or other business in Vietnam or even Cambodia

and I would have a much more enthusiastic young workforce

with far better English language skills. There is no comparison

to the attitude of the young people in these other neighboring countries.

The recent ASEAN summit cancellation I think will be the last straw

for many would be investors. Another thing is that

ifyou read some of the threads in the news section over the past two days you'll be astonished

to see just how many farangs are skeptical about their long-term visa status.

[Heng]

Sorted. Buying a home to live in need not be an investment.