Property Over The Next Two Years Let Us Forecast.

[Abrak]

Havent read the whole thread but interested that someone is bullish on Phuket with some condos for sale at Bt180k/sqm.

Wow I have some bargains for him.

In Bkk where you might find semi-prime at Bt35k/sqm I dont you will go wrong but middle high - say Bt100k+ is bound to come down even on the simple principle that building costs have fallen 25%.

Of course there is the usual Thailand problem of 'we didnt sell anything before the crash' and 'we havent sold anything after' so many prices will take 5 years to adjust. There are companies in BKK (not Phuket) that are adjusting prices (not enough in my opinion) like LPN so there maybe bargains about.

Funny thing to me about the poll was the currency dependency - there is clearly a feeling that the baht is overvalued which I would disagree with and to the extent I am wrong I would consider it insignificant to the direction of property prices which will go down.

[trogers]

Havent read the whole thread but interested that someone is bullish on Phuket with some condos for sale at Bt180k/sqm.

Wow I have some bargains for him.

In Bkk where you might find semi-prime at Bt35k/sqm I dont you will go wrong but middle high - say Bt100k+ is bound to come down even on the simple principle that building costs have fallen 25%.

Of course there is the usual Thailand problem of 'we didnt sell anything before the crash' and 'we havent sold anything after' so many prices will take 5 years to adjust. There are companies in BKK (not Phuket) that are adjusting prices (not enough in my opinion) like LPN so there maybe bargains about.

Funny thing to me about the poll was the currency dependency - there is clearly a feeling that the baht is overvalued which I would disagree with and to the extent I am wrong I would consider it insignificant to the direction of property prices which will go down.

Projects launched in 2007 and after belong to the third wave of development with prices Bt90,000/m2 and above. These are the overpriced units that were fully booked within a short period of time and are now facing no-show during transfers. Will prices fall? Ask the developers.

[Abrak]

Projects launched in 2007 and after belong to the third wave of development with prices Bt90,000/m2 and above. These are the overpriced units that were fully booked within a short period of time and are now facing no-show during transfers. Will prices fall? Ask the developers.

Whatever you do dont ask the developers (and 50% of farangs in Phuket are 'developers'). My neighbour (a brit) had a plan to build 8 storey condos up to the edge of his chanote which was on the coastline at Bt150k/sqm - he could at least have spent 5 minutes reading the planning regulations.

High end developments havent sold anything for months - Trisara not a villa in a year, Yamu maybe one plot in a year. The only place that might have sold say 10 units is Andara. Kata Gardens restaurant is now closed. I dont know much about the low end, suspect it has held up much better, but for how long?

[pkrv]

Funny thing to me about the poll was the currency dependency - there is clearly a feeling that the baht is overvalued which I would disagree with and to the extent I am wrong I would consider it insignificant to the direction of property prices which will go down.

Hi Abrak - Same with me. The FX side was interesting. However I don't interpret this in the same way you do. For some reason the term 'Caution on the wind' comes to mind. I think people wish to buy/rent/lease, but are having to reconsider, due to exchange rates. But are going to throw everything they have got at a new life - that too could be causing problems. Those remaining in the UK might not for example be able to afford our UK MP's or Royalties’ expense claims. Where would we be there then?

[merlion]

Manhattan chidlom condo fire sale in Singapore! Just read the papers today, and the price for the high end 1 bedroom units are advertised at 70,000 baht psm! That's a bargain, and from what I reckon, the property price in Bangkok is definitely coming down. I am so fortunate to have gotten rid of my units at a much higher price last year.

[jdrake72]

I think property in Thailand if overvalued simply because it has not fallen like in other countries and the Thai Baht is extremely overvalued too.

So for the next 2 years I see no growth in prices , maybe some correction in some areas, and stable in other areas.

Rents are already going down, too many empty units around (thousands, thousands, thousands...) looking for a rich tenant....no way...rents will need to go down in some areas for sure...

I don t see a sharp drop of the prices, just a correction and 2009-2010 without any recovering (except in few sectors)

[MJo]

Manhattan chidlom condo fire sale in Singapore! Just read the papers today, and the price for the high end 1 bedroom units are advertised at 70,000 baht psm! That's a bargain, and from what I reckon, the property price in Bangkok is definitely coming down. I am so fortunate to have gotten rid of my units at a much higher price last year.

Manhattan is one these buildings difficult to sell. Chidlom in the name is bit misleadin, should read Pratunam or Petchaburi instead. Building sits in small plot of land and traffic is terrible there and when you come out of the gate you are in the middle of Petchaburi road. I visited the building couple of years ago when they were starting to transfer the units and the quality was crap IMO. New units and in instant need of redoing the finishing. Needless to say at the time they were all sold out

But sure, prices are coming down at least in second hand market. Recently i've seen units in Royal Castle in soi 39 asking 55k per sqm and several others in Sukhmvit for 60k to 65k. Question is how low they go and where is the bottom ?

[trogers]

Recently i've seen units in Royal Castle in soi 39 asking 55k per sqm

Probable reason for falling prices in Royal Castle is the unheated indoor swimming pool.

Edited June 20, 2009 by trogers

[MJo]

Recently i've seen units in Royal Castle in soi 39 asking 55k per sqm

Probable reason for falling prices in Royal Castle is the unheated indoor swimming pool.

The pool has been there for years so i doubt it. New construction around the building blocking views perhaps ?

[pkrv]

Manhattan chidlom condo fire sale in Singapore! Just read the papers today, and the price for the high end 1 bedroom units are advertised at 70,000 baht psm! That's a bargain, and from what I reckon, the property price in Bangkok is definitely coming down. I am so fortunate to have gotten rid of my units at a much higher price last year.

A fire sale indicates the developer does it not? Please correct me if I am wrong. I think there were just 5-10 units left and the developer had no intention of providing things like Klong access, what a bone idle stupid thing to do! It would have achieved sales and promoted the property and Bangkok and its water ways! Green space in the project, almost non existant (which is reqired by Thai Law etc)

However I believe some 5-10 unsold units were left for sale and on the developers books. Is this what you are referring to?

Edited June 22, 2009 by pkrv

[trogers]

Recently i've seen units in Royal Castle in soi 39 asking 55k per sqm

Probable reason for falling prices in Royal Castle is the unheated indoor swimming pool.

The pool has been there for years so i doubt it. New construction around the building blocking views perhaps ?

The project mentioned is Royal Castle in Sukhumvit 39, not the other at Pattanakarn. Tower blocks are built on all 4 sides of the pool. A neighbouring high-rise building project would have to be at least 12m away from the side of the pool deck.

[MJo]

The project mentioned is Royal Castle in Sukhumvit 39, not the other at Pattanakarn. Tower blocks are built on all 4 sides of the pool. A neighbouring high-rise building project would have to be at least 12m away from the side of the pool deck.

Yes that's the one. I mean the view from the units, i.e. buildings next door blocking the view from living room or master bedrooms ? Surely the view from living room can not be to the couryard with the pool ?

I have visited the building couple of times and it is nicely maintained (at least the lobby and other public areas) and location is pretty good although there is some traffic in soi 39 55k per sqm sounds low when other buildings nearby are asking way more.

[Benjie]

Projects launched in 2007 and after belong to the third wave of development with prices Bt90,000/m2 and above. These are the overpriced units that were fully booked within a short period of time and are now facing no-show during transfers. Will prices fall? Ask the developers.

Whatever you do dont ask the developers (and 50% of farangs in Phuket are 'developers'). My neighbour (a brit) had a plan to build 8 storey condos up to the edge of his chanote which was on the coastline at Bt150k/sqm - he could at least have spent 5 minutes reading the planning regulations.

High end developments havent sold anything for months - Trisara not a villa in a year, Yamu maybe one plot in a year. The only place that might have sold say 10 units is Andara. Kata Gardens restaurant is now closed. I dont know much about the low end, suspect it has held up much better, but for how long?

Where did you hear those figures?

I personally know of two guys who bought in Trisara in that time frame, both houses due to finish later on in the year.

[trogers]

The project mentioned is Royal Castle in Sukhumvit 39, not the other at Pattanakarn. Tower blocks are built on all 4 sides of the pool. A neighbouring high-rise building project would have to be at least 12m away from the side of the pool deck.

Yes that's the one. I mean the view from the units, i.e. buildings next door blocking the view from living room or master bedrooms ? Surely the view from living room can not be to the couryard with the pool ?

I have visited the building couple of times and it is nicely maintained (at least the lobby and other public areas) and location is pretty good although there is some traffic in soi 39 55k per sqm sounds low when other buildings nearby are asking way more.

I do not think view from the external facade of the towers are seriously blocked by nearby high-rise.

The issue is the main swimming pool, being enclosed by the project's own high-rise tower on all 4 sides resulting in sunlight shining down on to the pool only when the sun is overhead (11.30am-1pm), resulting in cold water of the pool. In addition, the chimney effect will cause humidity buildup over the pool to rise and circulate up the sides of the tower as low pressure created by passing wind at the top of the tower induces airflow from pool area upwards. A third problem is that sound generated at pool level will be trapped by the enclosing tower and reverberates internally.

[MJo]

I do not think view from the external facade of the towers are seriously blocked by nearby high-rise.

The issue is the main swimming pool, being enclosed by the project's own high-rise tower on all 4 sides resulting in sunlight shining down on to the pool only when the sun is overhead (11.30am-1pm), resulting in cold water of the pool. In addition, the chimney effect will cause humidity buildup over the pool to rise and circulate up the sides of the tower as low pressure created by passing wind at the top of the tower induces airflow from pool area upwards. A third problem is that sound generated at pool level will be trapped by the enclosing tower and reverberates internally.

I do agree with you that the pools is not nice inside. However the building is nicely maintained and looks much better maintained than anything around so just wondering why asking prices there are not low but lower than other buildings in the area.

Surely it just can not be due to the pool or you live there and it creates noise to the units ?

[trogers]

I do not think view from the external facade of the towers are seriously blocked by nearby high-rise.

The issue is the main swimming pool, being enclosed by the project's own high-rise tower on all 4 sides resulting in sunlight shining down on to the pool only when the sun is overhead (11.30am-1pm), resulting in cold water of the pool. In addition, the chimney effect will cause humidity buildup over the pool to rise and circulate up the sides of the tower as low pressure created by passing wind at the top of the tower induces airflow from pool area upwards. A third problem is that sound generated at pool level will be trapped by the enclosing tower and reverberates internally.

I do agree with you that the pools is not nice inside. However the building is nicely maintained and looks much better maintained than anything around so just wondering why asking prices there are not low but lower than other buildings in the area.

Surely it just can not be due to the pool or you live there and it creates noise to the units ?

The way a project has been designed, and how functional space is laid out, both inside an individual condo unit, or the project as a whole will have an impact on property value. Do not just look at classy finishes, or the standard of maintainence.

Have a look at this 30m2 studio unit:

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/classified...um=1&type=1

The project comprises of two 18-storey (18x70m) rectangular blocks, positioned just 9m apart.

[MJo]

The way a project has been designed, and how functional space is laid out, both inside an individual condo unit, or the project as a whole will have an impact on property value. Do not just look at classy finishes, or the standard of maintainence.

Have a look at this 30m2 studio unit:

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/classified...um=1&type=1

The project comprises of two 18-storey (18x70m) rectangular blocks, positioned just 9m apart.

No s..t sherlock

My first guess was that the views of the units are blocked. But i believe the studio unit in your link is not from RC or is it ?

What i was looking is does someone actually know what is the case with RC soi39 ?

Is there units where views are blocked by other towers ? Is the layout of the units fcuked up etc ???

What i already know the building is nicely managed and kept in shape so it must be something else...

[trogers]

The way a project has been designed, and how functional space is laid out, both inside an individual condo unit, or the project as a whole will have an impact on property value. Do not just look at classy finishes, or the standard of maintainence.

Have a look at this 30m2 studio unit:

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/classified...um=1&type=1

The project comprises of two 18-storey (18x70m) rectangular blocks, positioned just 9m apart.

No s..t sherlock

My first guess was that the views of the units are blocked. But i believe the studio unit in your link is not from RC or is it ?

What i was looking is does someone actually know what is the case with RC soi39 ?

Is there units where views are blocked by other towers ? Is the layout of the units fcuked up etc ???

What i already know the building is nicely managed and kept in shape so it must be something else...

In the example that I have given, the alternative is not to select a unit with a better view. When a project is designed in this manner, it means 50% of the saleable space in the project faces each other. The fall in value of these units will drag down the units with better view due to the social class willing to occupy the cheaper space.

[Johnty]

The real estate sales trend in Thailand is clear:<br /><br />

I wonder how much of that graph was due to speculators click searching to source out projects, book and attempt selling their booking papers. Seems there is a strong correlation to the number of new projects launched per year as well.

I do not consider putting down a deposit for an unbuilt or incomplete condo a sales. That's why I have said, property professional will do themselves a big favour when they separate newly launched projects with those that have already been constructed and transferred. The latter is definitely a sales, but the former action is just a booking.

I agree 100%... There is a development here in Jomtien called Park Lane Residence. An agent 3 weeks ago told me almost 90% sold, then I happen to see it last week and now drive past every day. I swear that not a brick has been laid / wall plastered during that time. It is just like a grey ghost town.....scary and definitely not getting a deposit from me

[lannarebirth]

"Are your folks in farangland laughing at you?"

No, but they're laughing at you. You bought a home which you thought was going to decrease in value, with no intention of living in it. Although it makes sense to you, it doesn't seem to be a brilliant investment strategy. Why would you save a home for your family? Why wouldn't you live in it? Is there any timeframe of your family returning to you, or is it just your hoping that your family will come back to papa?

"The property prices have not corrected themselves - they ZEROED themselves."

I think that comment clearly indicates you're confusing reality with fantasy. You now think that all property in Thailand is worthless. The rest of the TVers can now judge your perception and intelligence.

What an...

Have you heard of people having more than 1 home? I have 4.

Why would I not live in it? Because I don't want to live in 3rd world country unless I am forced to (like global slump where everything stops and nice place to live somewhere on the cheap).

Your property is worth shit, you know that, unsellable, unrentable and that's where your madness is - you think that's not true.

Especially YOUR property, in that price range, is worthless.

The real estate sales trend in Thailand is clear:

Wouldn't your graph need some kind of values on its "Y" axis to be meaningful?

[hhgz]

"Have you heard of people having more than 1 home? I have 4."

OK. You bought 4 homes, and you refuse to either live in them or sell them, because you are emotionally distraught that your wife left you. That has nothing to do with me, but Im beginning to understand why your wife took off.

"Why would I not live in it? Because I don't want to live in 3rd world country unless I am forced to"

So, you bought 4 homes just to watch them depreciate. Now that's an investment scheme I'd rather not follow.

"Your property is worth shit, you know that, unsellable, unrentable and that's where your madness is - you think that's not true. Especially YOUR property, in that price range, is worthless."

Since you know neither where I live nor what I paid for it, you haven't a clue of what you are talking about. Here's one thing that I am doing that you are not: I'm living in my home - whether its worth something or not - and I love it.

[pkrv]

"Have you heard of people having more than 1 home? I have 4."

OK. You bought 4 homes, and you refuse to either live in them or sell them, because you are emotionally distraught that your wife left you. That has nothing to do with me, but Im beginning to understand why your wife took off.

"Why would I not live in it? Because I don't want to live in 3rd world country unless I am forced to"

So, you bought 4 homes just to watch them depreciate. Now that's an investment scheme I'd rather not follow.

"Your property is worth shit, you know that, unsellable, unrentable and that's where your madness is - you think that's not true. Especially YOUR property, in that price range, is worthless."

Since you know neither where I live nor what I paid for it, you haven't a clue of what you are talking about. Here's one thing that I am doing that you are not: I'm living in my home - whether its worth something or not - and I love it.

This is not to my knowledge a quote from this tread. Where did this come from? It is simple to quote people, just hit the quote button, towards the bottom right of this post. IMO It helps all of us work things out.

Edited July 2, 2009 by pkrv

[hhgz]

pkrv,

The quoted references are part of this thread. Except for my latest reply, the posts are a month old. I apologize for any confusion.

But there's no confusion that anyone buying an investment expecting it to drop in value, as think to mut did, is not playing with a full deck of cards.

[pkrv]

pkrv,

The quoted references are part of this thread. Except for my latest reply, the posts are a month old. I apologize for any confusion.

But there's no confusion that anyone buying an investment expecting it to drop in value, as think to mut did, is not playing with a full deck of cards.

IMO - A part of the rich tapestry of life. You both own condos in Bangkok don't you ];-) Thais emphasise the word by repeating he word twice, for me 'Same Same'.

[earthpig]

bkk luxury condo prices appreciated more in bkk in 2008 than any other city in the world. in fact, in few cities of the world did condo prices appreciate at all in 2208.

and now? condo oversupply, severe world wide economic downturn, thai tourism and exports both falling thru the floor, a thai baht that is not adjusting sufficiently. political instability with an aging and critically important monarch, uncertain future for property ownership laws for foreigners...

condo prices are moving down now and very possibly in 2010 will crash.

pick up the pieces in 2012?

[merlion]

bkk luxury condo prices appreciated more in bkk in 2008 than any other city in the world. in fact, in few cities of the world did condo prices appreciate at all in 2208.

and now? condo oversupply, severe world wide economic downturn, thai tourism and exports both falling thru the floor, a thai baht that is not adjusting sufficiently. political instability with an aging and critically important monarch, uncertain future for property ownership laws for foreigners...

condo prices are moving down now and very possibly in 2010 will crash.

pick up the pieces in 2012?

In Singapore, there is a boom in property sales. People from Singapore, to Indonesia, Malaysia, China, India, Europe and many others, are snapping up units at condo launches. Amazing and baffling! But definitely good news to property owners.

[pkrv]

We are about six months into our prediction. Start date of this thread - 2009-02-19 11:31:50.

So where are we up/down, no change, or all over the place ?

[craigt3365]

I can give a quick observation. I have been looking for the past few weeks in Phuket, Bangkok and now Pattaya. I am trying to figure out where I want to live, and surveying the market seems a good way to go.

Outside of a few developments in prime locations in Bangkok, the market is definitely not up. In Phuket and Pattaya, high end properties are not selling at all. Good developments seem to be doing pretty good. I have seen several that are either sold out, or close to it. But then I have seen many, many that are struggling....and several that have just shut down.

On the resale front, there are deals, but you really have to look around. Kind of a hit and miss thing. I am guessing it is due to the fact there are no mortgages...so people can just sit until they get what they want, or rent it until then.

I have seen a few deals from people who are having to deal with the "final" payment and offering their unit for what they have into it...or sometimes, even less. Especially foreigners who were looking to make a quick buck and have seen their currency devalued vs. the baht as well as economic troubles in their home country (UK, Germany, USA, Russia, etc.).

So, I have seen all that you have mentioned!!!

[zorro1]

housing prices are starting a recovery in the USA according to CNBC. They never really dropped much in Asia in general, good time for buying now. There are a multitidue of resasons as to why BKK is stable and the holidays spots are not. Do you want to buy to live?that's okay anywhere will do. Buy to rent? I would avoid holiday renters like the plague. Buy to flip? BKK near a BTs and a top quality developer will put you in the box seat. However dreamers will always buy in Pattaya , why bother when you can live in BKK and 800bht will get you to pattaya where you can rent any of the 1 million rooms for peanuts. If you want Capitol growth the odds favor BKK

[pkrv]

We are now almost a year into our predictions - From my perspective things have sold out and are ticking over in the CBD, Bangkok.

From some preliminary investigations Pattaya does not seem to be doing so well even the high end seems to have taken a small hit.

Do you know I think that once again we are going to be all over the place (no pun intended) with our forecast!