Money!

[srisatch]

I keep reading little snippets/rumours that this year the Chinese might unpeg the Yuan from the Dollar. And that if they did the other Asian currencies would follow. Maybe as much as 30% ie. $1=30Baht/£1=50Baht 1Euro=33 or so Baht?

Now that might make one sit up. Chavalit come back please. Not as bad as 1990 but still…

Does anyone have a view on this? Or preferably all you retired FOREX dealers, a bit of knowledge as to the likelihood of this?

Actually I think land, houses in BKK but not elsewhere, cars, drink, stereos! are not cheap already .. though food, clothes, DVDs/TVs, petrol-still, hotels in normal places-not Phuket!.. are…

Boring na? But Make a difference..particularly that guy I read somewhere said his girl making 9,000B a month in a department store in Udon…. Must be offering services I have yet to encounter officially. 3,000B is the going rate in Seven and maybe 5,000B if you have a degree(required) to sell mobile phones in Telewiz!

Edited January 17, 2005 by Darknight

[LaoPo]

I keep reading little snippets/rumours that this year the Chinese might unpeg the Yuan from the Dollar. And that if they did the other Asian currencies would follow. Maybe as much as 30% ie. $1=30Baht/£1=50Baht 1Euro=33 or so Baht?

Now that might make one sit up. Chavalit come back please. Not as bad as 1990 but still…

Does anyone have a view on this? Or preferably all you retired FOREX dealers, a bit of knowledge as to the likelihood of this?

Actually I think land, houses in BKK but not elsewhere, cars, drink, stereos! are not cheap already .. though food, clothes, DVDs/TVs, petrol-still, hotels in normal places-not Phuket!.. are…

Boring na? But Make a difference..particularly that guy I read somewhere said his girl making 9,000B a month in a department store in Udon…. Must be offering services I have yet to encounter officially. 3,000B is the going rate in Seven and maybe 5,000B if you have a degree(required) to sell mobile phones in Telewiz!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Nobody knows what 'Beijing' will do about the Yuan, but the pressure from the USA and Europe is immense. The Yuan is definitely too low now and yes there is a big chance that the government will do something about it, but when, how, if and how much nobody knows.

I had a meeting yesterday with 4 Chinese businesspeople from Beijing and Shanghai area who are BUYING in Europe...the amounts are staggering and they would welcome a change (...).

The Chinese are tempering the growth by all means and at the moment it is very difficult for Businesses AND private people to get extra credit/loans with their banks. House-prices (read: mortgages) are stabalizing or going down; carsales are down. The growth in the past years of 8-9% per annum was too high and the economy is overheated.

What the other Asian currencies will do....don't know but I fear they have to do something, whatever that will be.

But a percentage of as much of 30% would be a Tsunami in economics in Asia, so let's hope it will not be that bad.

[srisatch]

Yes.

I hear the Thais are buying in London, too...lucky them, as well as in PRC.. We were in the right place when lovely K.Yonchayudh came along..don't want to be in the wrong place this time...keep us posted!

[kreon]

I keep reading little snippets/rumours that this year the Chinese might unpeg the Yuan from the Dollar. And that if they did the other Asian currencies would follow. Maybe as much as 30% ie. $1=30Baht/£1=50Baht 1Euro=33 or so Baht?

Now that might make one sit up. Chavalit come back please. Not as bad as 1990 but still…

Does anyone have a view on this? Or preferably all you retired FOREX dealers, a bit of knowledge as to the likelihood of this?

Actually I think land, houses in BKK but not elsewhere, cars, drink, stereos! are not cheap already .. though food, clothes, DVDs/TVs, petrol-still, hotels in normal places-not Phuket!.. are…

Boring na? But Make a difference..particularly that guy I read somewhere said his girl making 9,000B a month in a department store in Udon…. Must be offering services I have yet to encounter officially. 3,000B is the going rate in Seven and maybe 5,000B if you have a degree(required) to sell mobile phones in Telewiz!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

as always, dont put all your eggs in one basket

a smart thing to do would be stocking up on yuan and hkd$, because sooner or later something is going to give. the usd has already lost 30% of its value since bush came on board, its going to get worse still, swappedmy usd for euro's a long time ago, although will be hit too, if the yuan goes to maybe rmb10=usd 1

[~G~]

I keep reading little snippets/rumours that this year the Chinese might unpeg the Yuan from the Dollar. And that if they did the other Asian currencies would follow. Maybe as much as 30% ie. $1=30Baht/£1=50Baht 1Euro=33 or so Baht?

Now that might make one sit up. Chavalit come back please. Not as bad as 1990 but still…

Does anyone have a view on this? Or preferably all you retired FOREX dealers, a bit of knowledge as to the likelihood of this?

Actually I think land, houses in BKK but not elsewhere, cars, drink, stereos! are not cheap already .. though food, clothes, DVDs/TVs, petrol-still, hotels in normal places-not Phuket!.. are…

Boring na? But Make a difference..particularly that guy I read somewhere said his girl making 9,000B a month in a department store in Udon…. Must be offering services I have yet to encounter officially. 3,000B is the going rate in Seven and maybe 5,000B if you have a degree(required) to sell mobile phones in Telewiz!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

as always, dont put all your eggs in one basket

a smart thing to do would be stocking up on yuan and hkd$, because sooner or later something is going to give. the usd has already lost 30% of its value since bush came on board, its going to get worse still, swappedmy usd for euro's a long time ago, although will be hit too, if the yuan goes to maybe rmb10=usd 1

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yes, for all those who spend in asia and have income in other currecnies, its will be very wise to keep some money in asian currencies.

[johnnyk]

IMHO, only the Chinese will decide what China will do.

Except for a brief period of 200 years they always have.

US and British pressure is effall to them.

Thai baht rising against sterling and the dollar?

It's monopoly (unintended joke) money, Thai dingbhat, maybe.

[srisatch]

as always, dont put all your eggs in one basket

a smart thing to do would be stocking up on yuan and hkd$, because sooner or later something is going to give. the usd has already lost 30% of its value since bush came on board, its going to get worse still, swappedmy usd for euro's a long time ago, although will be hit too, if the yuan goes to maybe rmb10=usd 1

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The USD has lost 30% of it's 'percieved' value, and in my opinion is 'undervalued'. I think also that the Euro is 'overvalued'. So I have kept mine 50/50 in those two currencies. Not sure that China will keep up the pace of its 'up to now' progress... and may burn out some... India is marching forwards much more surely and steadily... The USA being the only world superpower will always have an Ace up it's sleeve...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

There is stuff about this in Asia Times Online..a paper I quite like! Not like Bangkok Post!

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/FL21Ad03.html

Edited January 18, 2005 by srisatch

[stumonster]

China to free up currency: report

From correspondents in Beijing

January 19, 2005

CHINA is preparing new steps to partially free-up its strictly controlled currency, state media reported today.

The Chinese central bank has reportedly said it wants to make the yuan 'exchangeable'.

"One consideration to improve financial services this year is to gradually make the local currency exchangeable in order to clear up some of the economic restrictions in terms of convertibility of different currencies," the official China Securities Journal quoted central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan as saying.

Zhou, however, remained elusive on the timing and the details of the long-awaited adjustment to its forex regime under which the yuan is currently pegged at around 8.28 to the US dollar.

The process of making the yuan convertible would be "comparatively stable," Zhou said. He said that "we'll have to wait and see" on other potential economic policies and measures Beijing may consider.

Zhou also said the growth rate in China's foreign exchange reserves in 2004 was "a little bit faster" than the year before "but not unreasonable".

"Mounting forex reserves have brought about some difficulty in carrying out monetary policy but has not caused too much difficulty," Zhou said.

He further insisted that foreign currency flowing through the capital account was not the main reason for the sharp increase in foreign reserves and denied that "hot money" was entering China through the capital account.

China's foreign exchange reserves in 2004 amounted to $US609.9 billion $805.74 billion, up from $US403.3 billion at end-2003.

Some observers have said much of the increase reflects inflows of speculative funds betting on a revaluation of the yuan against the dollar.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/commo...55E1702,00.html

[srisatch]

China to free up currency: report

From correspondents in Beijing

January 19, 2005

CHINA is preparing new steps to partially free-up its strictly controlled currency, state media reported today.

The Chinese central bank has reportedly said it wants to make the yuan 'exchangeable'.

"One consideration to improve financial services this year is to gradually make the local currency exchangeable in order to clear up some of the economic restrictions in terms of convertibility of different currencies," the official China Securities Journal quoted central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan as saying.

Zhou, however, remained elusive on the timing and the details of the long-awaited adjustment to its forex regime under which the yuan is currently pegged at around 8.28 to the US dollar.

The process of making the yuan convertible would be "comparatively stable," Zhou said. He said that "we'll have to wait and see" on other potential economic policies and measures Beijing may consider.

Zhou also said the growth rate in China's foreign exchange reserves in 2004 was "a little bit faster" than the year before "but not unreasonable".

"Mounting forex reserves have brought about some difficulty in carrying out monetary policy but has not caused too much difficulty," Zhou said.

He further insisted that foreign currency flowing through the capital account was not the main reason for the sharp increase in foreign reserves and denied that "hot money" was entering China through the capital account.

China's foreign exchange reserves in 2004 amounted to $US609.9 billion $805.74 billion, up from $US403.3 billion at end-2003.

Some observers have said much of the increase reflects inflows of speculative funds betting on a revaluation of the yuan against the dollar.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/commo...55E1702,00.html

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I like the 'some observers' bit...that is real journalism...but thanks for the link..Why would I have been reading breaking news in The Australian otherwise!!?