Nam Kao Posted October 28, 2005 Share Posted October 28, 2005 8:22AM EST Bounce here 10-28-05 BMO In today’s world market round up only one word comes to mind and its not up. We start with the Asian region and we see most of the indexes including Japan suffered losses of over 1% and a few over 2%. Looking to Europe, the trading day is young but we see heavy losses mounting there as well. The big three are all down, the CAC is down 1%, and the DAX is not far behind down currently six tenths of a percent. The FTSE seems the strongest of the big three, currently down 20 points or one third of a percent. Here in the US Dow futures are down but not to bad currently, showing a loss of 8 points, SPX 2 and the NDX 5. As is always the case these numbers are likely to change as we move closer to the bell, we have our first look at Q3 GDP due out at 8:30 AM and you can be sure that number will drive the open up or down, the current forecast is 3.8 % growth rate in the Q. OK what do the charts have to say about the day? I have listed below a chart of the Q’s showing the current count in the micro degree; in red I have an alternate count that is much more bullish then the count in blue. As you will see when you look at the chart we closed yesterday in five down and should see an ABC counter trend rally start early this morning, that is assuming the much more bullish count in red is not in control which would suggest a larger decline before a even larger advance arrives. I assume that the reaction to GDP not the number itself will tell us which is correct. What I did not list on the chart is the gloom and doom count that may be coming our way, before I list this crash wave scenario it would be my desire to have at least three confirmations. At the moment we have just one, but I will be watching it as we move forward. I did not label the wave on the chart because it is a primary degree count and would have been too confusing to have the three subcounts running on one chart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nam Kao Posted October 28, 2005 Share Posted October 28, 2005 PTE, >>>McHugh is very bearish and he does use wave theories, so we may see a divergence of opinion about thursday testing credibility between McHugh and t-wave? McHugh has wider spaced trades than Twave/Ewave. All are med term bears. Twaves made 7 ticks on the ES overnight. Its gonna get interesting nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opothai Posted October 28, 2005 Share Posted October 28, 2005 as i am posting 13.37 america has just released consumer spending and the markets have risen ftse now 5206 so doubled my money now closing and will go short later this afternoon nam we can see the crash, do you think before xmas [as i do] or later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nam Kao Posted October 28, 2005 Share Posted October 28, 2005 Hi opothai, I take 1-3 days at a time, I try to absorb as much of the wave as possible. Say the Qs drop 3$, there is probably 6-8$ of movement to grab, nothing goes in a straight line. Also how fast is your internet connection? Important for Twaves. regards nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A. BOOZER Posted October 28, 2005 Share Posted October 28, 2005 nuclear physics is easier to understand . I'm glad that I still rely on my Post Office Savings Account! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opothai Posted October 28, 2005 Share Posted October 28, 2005 Hi opothai,I take 1-3 days at a time, I try to absorb as much of the wave as possible. Say the Qs drop 3$, there is probably 6-8$ of movement to grab, nothing goes in a straight line. Also how fast is your internet connection? Important for Twaves. regards nam <{POST_SNAPBACK}> nam i have tried www.twaves.net and i am always getting 'page under construction' and have not been able to access. i have broadband on two computers so connection very fast. at the momment i run a carpentry and joinery company 50% partnership, so i am in the office 4 days out of 5 so trading no problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nam Kao Posted October 28, 2005 Share Posted October 28, 2005 (edited) opathai, Try this http://twaves.net/ I am in there right now, works fine. I am up 1400 w/ ES so far, no bad trades, like shooting fish in a barrel or finding a mint TG Glad to hear you have good internet, you are on your way to $$$ plus a solid education, Earn while you learn take care nam http://twaves.net/PastPerformance.asp Edited October 28, 2005 by Nam Kao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nam Kao Posted October 28, 2005 Share Posted October 28, 2005 ES Trades Today Futures: Trades Profiled & Suggested During Market Hours & Pre-Market (10/27/2005) 1. (11:49 am) I'm SHORT the ES at 1191.75 SL=1.50+/- 2. OUT FLAT (11:31 am) I'm SHORT the ES at 1189.00 SL=1.50+/- 3. P/S triggered @ $1187.75 booked 3-ticks(11:16 am) I'm SHORT the ES at 1188.50 SL=1.50+/- 4. P/S triggered @ $1184.00 booked 2.25 points Looking to reload at 1188.50 (10:31 am) I'm SHORT the ES at 1186.25 SL=1.00+/- (Room-CALL) 5. P/S triggered booked 2-Ticks reloading at 1191.75 (10:06 am) I'm SHORT the ES at 1187.25 SL=1.00+/- (Room-CALL) 6. P/S triggered booked 1.50 points (09:55 am) I'm SHORT the ES at 1190.00 SL=1.00-1.50+/- 7. BOOKED 1.25 -points (09:45 am) I'm SHORT the ES at 1189.25 SL=1.00-1.50+/- 8. P/S triggered at 1186.50 booked 5-points will look to reload (03:57 pm) I'm LONG the ES @ 1181.50 SL=2.50-2.75 an Overnight hold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opothai Posted October 28, 2005 Share Posted October 28, 2005 (edited) opathai,Try this http://twaves.net/ I am in there right now, works fine. I am up 1400 w/ ES so far, no bad trades, like shooting fish in a barrel or finding a mint TG Glad to hear you have good internet, you are on your way to $$$ plus a solid education, Earn while you learn take care nam http://twaves.net/PastPerformance.asp <{POST_SNAPBACK}> yep i'm in thx nam which package would you suggest regards steve Edited October 28, 2005 by opothai Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nam Kao Posted October 28, 2005 Share Posted October 28, 2005 Diamond - thats what i have They'll give you a 2 week free trial, trade it on paper at first to get used to the stops. You'll need Yahoo IM and Paltalk, The Paltalk is great listening to the action! They start at 7am EST most days. Make sure you can trade pre-market with your trading acct. Alot of action 7 to 11 so you can sleep. regards nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nam Kao Posted October 28, 2005 Share Posted October 28, 2005 They are ramping her, window dressing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Firefan Posted October 29, 2005 Share Posted October 29, 2005 Agree. Hard to find any other good explanation than window dressing to yesterdays rally. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nam Kao Posted October 29, 2005 Share Posted October 29, 2005 I picked a bad week to cut down on the demerol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nam Kao Posted October 29, 2005 Share Posted October 29, 2005 firefan, r u a trader? -nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opothai Posted October 29, 2005 Share Posted October 29, 2005 monday end of year for fund managera so market up, must have the portfolios looking good. mid week to week end market sell off ftse 4800 before xmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Firefan Posted October 30, 2005 Share Posted October 30, 2005 Hi Nam, More of an investor really. Most is in a globally and asset class wise well diversified, mostly indexed, portfolio but I DO have a bit of play/risk money I consider my "gambling" money (which I can afford to lose). It keeps the testosterone from doing stupid things with the base portfolio. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmonica Posted February 16, 2009 Author Share Posted February 16, 2009 If you're not out yet, reconsider @ QQQQ=$36.4 and/or DIA=102.9 and/or SPY=113.7-- if the 200-day gets taken out convincingly, consider SHORT positions on QQQQ, SPY, DIA or your individual stocks that show similar high volume declines.Intermediate-term rally from Aug 13 uptrendlines broken on QQQQ, Diamonds & Spiders. Downside volume increasing on all three -- bad sign for optimists & bulls. I got out in December when the Macd uptrendline violation was confirmed by a similar likelihood in the RSI. The highest Nasdaq close was 2178 and my average exit was 2160 -- just 18 points shy of the top .... if indeed Jan 3 turns out to be the actual TOP. For those still in the market and in luscious optimism there might be a reprieve soon if/when the 200-day gets touched. If the bounce is feeble and on low volume, that will be the cue to say Adios! --------------------------------- My exit was early, like I stated in the Deflation thread. Method has been improved upon considerably so next time I think I'll be able to ride the trend to its natural death with just minor mistakes, aka exits here and there. That's the plan. So anyway, let's get to the present and look at the future for the US by viewing S&P500 and if PTE is still alive and well and not ascended to heaven yet, we can take up QQQQ again - but only in the context of the continuous SHORT and timing the ultimate bottom for the BEAR. I'm neither LONG nor SHORT, totally on sidelines as I wait to see if Microsoft can hold support. If it does not then my decision to hold cash even in this shortsellers paradise will be justified because I expect huge bankruptcies of brokerages etc. if this support line fails. For further reference look at the giant double-top on S&P500 monthly - we are close to the neckline. The double-top does NOT go into effect unless and until the neckline is decisively broken. If it holds firm, the US has a chance of recovery. If however, the neckline breaks, we go into a panic wave southwards. On the Daily chart, S&P500 TREND is down. However shortie traders should be alert for the fact that the market is dying to generate an upwave - the upwave from Nov 21 so far is a dud - but watch for a close above Jan 28 and then Jan 6. Take trader short profits if the first one occurs and get ready to reverse course if the 2nd one occurs. Otherwise SHORT is the only way to be for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thaihome Posted February 16, 2009 Share Posted February 16, 2009 Nothing more amusing then someone digging up a 3 years old thread and claiming “See I was right”. TH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmonica Posted February 16, 2009 Author Share Posted February 16, 2009 Ha,ha,ha You need to go to a casino and play the colors black or red. Thats the only thing you are doing playing the Q's. Your a trader not an informed investor. I met very few traders that ever made a profit. Here is the site again of guy that worked the on the stock exchange for over 20 years and is a harvard grad. He plays the options professionaly. You can pick a few of his programs and depending how risky you want to be he will trade for you as he trades. http://www.terrystips.com/stock_leaps.shtml PXD is up about 20% this month for a good reason. I expect a 20% gain on PXD this year. Do your own research. Khun ?, PXD could go to $40-41 or thereabouts; regardless, wherever it ends up, that will be the high for the DECADE!-- crash and burn thereafter! Will go belly-up in the next 2 years or so. Take profit now or SOON -- that's my advice -- no need for recrimination etc. -- its only advice, that's all --take the input in the spirit it is given, OK? ---------------------------------------------------------------- What do you have to say for yourself now, Khun ? ? PXD has crashed and burned. Maybe you were alert enough to get out near the top. But more importantly, the Harvard Univ. genius you were recommending .... well dig this then about your Harvard guru: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=55017 (read the whole thread ) but here's just a gist from one client of his: He absolutely hammered his followers with gigantic account-closing losses. Lalaland personified! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmonica Posted February 16, 2009 Author Share Posted February 16, 2009 Combine your QQQQ analysis with the support/R study of the Nasdaq composite -- The Qs are 100 top Nas companies -- the composite is the whole shabang; far more reliable for estimating -- therefore use both. Use the numbers I gave you on the Qs, then correlate the following.Nasdaq composite major support band from 2,030 - 1,930 = 100 point spread where the fall could be arrested -- the core level of this support structure is @ 1932. This core level is like a concrete floor -- to break it is possible, of course and if so, that means big trouble for the prior uptrend. 200-day MA @ 1976 currently. The odds that Nasdaq will deliver a rally starting somewhere between 2,030 and 1930 are 90%+ The odds that Nas will deliver a rally between now (2034) & 1976 are 30%. The odds that Nas will deliver a rally @ 1976 are 50%. The odds that Nas will deliver a rally @ 1950-1976 are 75%. The 200-day is well known to slingshot a market after being penetrated by a reasonable amount -- call it elasticity or whatever, but from market to market and stock to stock this is readily noticeable. I know that tomorrow is a big day for you. Best of luck! What a load of horses##t. If I want to lose all my cash I will be the first to contract you Mr.Harmonica. For goodness sake why can you not see that your odds/analysis are no more meaningful than tea leaves.Do you also consult them??? Anybody serious about making money with the financial markets would do far better with CAREFUL stock selection.This involves taking lots of time poring over companies balance sheets, learning about future prospects and using data such as P/E ratios etc to discover whether a stock is cheap or overvalued.To let a computer tell you when to buy or sell is just amazing.Hang on. Baaahaaahaahaa. In short dont follow this Harmonica mans advise.He will lose you your money. Fundamentals,fundamentals and fundamentals.The 3 keys to making money. As for me I retired at 25 and moved to LOS.Not by reading ####### tealeaves!!!! ------------------------------------ >>>> Fundamentals,fundamentals and fundamentals.The 3 keys to making money. <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< George Bush ... Oct 2007 ...... "The fundamentals of our economy are strong. We are in excellent shape" Henry Paulson (US Treasury Secy) .. August 2007 .. "I promise you our fundamentals are very strong, like a pillar, there is no danger to our economy" there are hundreds more of these guys, thousands perhaps and if you want more about "fundamentals" just look at the total trillion dollar bailouts. All the fundamental gurus in America are now without exception visiting their favorite proctologists and having every orifice rubbed and sealed for the pain and wrath of the public is deafening. The only ones who could have seen this giant fiasco coming were technicians. Not all, just a handfull. I was one of them and proud to be so. Nothing like hindsight to flush out the dummies. Note: If you want to take a swing at me again, I suggest you use my trades on Crude Oil. Remember the Crude oil thread where I said we were going to $10? We were at $70 and I never in my wildest dreams would have imagined Crude would go to $147. So here I was dead wrong. This was colossal stupidity on my part. Use this, chief. As for my $10 target on Crude, heck we're almost there. Give it time and I'll review the whole shabang in present time. No hard feelings :jerk: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmonica Posted February 16, 2009 Author Share Posted February 16, 2009 Not big money earned but have bought lots of GM bonds. Only going out 3 to 4 years. Yes "junk" but they pay 7 to 9% and you get your money back.Risk sure but I do not feel GM will go bankrup in 4 years, never really. Don't fall asleep at the wheel! Besides having its bonds downgraded to junk status, keep this in mind: "GM has 302 billion in debt. and is the 2nd biggest in-hock outfit in history" Other than that life continues to be sweet in LOS! ---------------------------------------------- I liked this fellow, so I'm going to restrain myself here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lannarebirth Posted February 16, 2009 Share Posted February 16, 2009 Not big money earned but have bought lots of GM bonds. Only going out 3 to 4 years. Yes "junk" but they pay 7 to 9% and you get your money back.Risk sure but I do not feel GM will go bankrup in 4 years, never really. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Don't fall asleep at the wheel! Besides having its bonds downgraded to junk status, keep this in mind: "GM has 302 billion in debt. and is the 2nd biggest in-hock outfit in history" Other than that life continues to be sweet in LOS! ---------------------------------------------- I liked this fellow, so I'm going to restrain myself here. Looks like he's collected all his coupons given the dates posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmonica Posted February 18, 2009 Author Share Posted February 18, 2009 Lots of Media hoopla about Dow Jones and S&P500 revisiting the Nov 21 lows for a retest. Too much speculation and too many things to consider. But cutting to the chase as a technician whose only job is to turn Lead into Gold and pinpointing only what's important to a medium-term TREND trader who is currently on the correct side of the market, namely SHORT, -------------------------------------------------------------------- STAY SHORT ..... unless ... S&P500, Dow Jones Jan 28 close and VIX Jan 6 close Nasdaq Comp., Transports Feb 6 close London Footsie and Germany DAX .. Feb 9 close are taken out on a closing basis. Look for confirmation by getting the majority here. If these levels remain untrammeled, STAY SHORT!!!!! If they are taken out close shorty and retreat to bear cave to feast on spoils. Then reload and wait to short from higher. A twofer. ------------------------------------------------------------------ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmonica Posted February 23, 2009 Author Share Posted February 23, 2009 Lots of Media hoopla about Dow Jones and S&P500 revisiting the Nov 21 lows for a retest. Too much speculation and too many things to consider.But cutting to the chase as a technician whose only job is to turn Lead into Gold and pinpointing only what's important to a medium-term TREND trader who is currently on the correct side of the market, namely SHORT, -------------------------------------------------------------------- STAY SHORT ..... unless ... S&P500, Dow Jones Jan 28 close and VIX Jan 6 close Nasdaq Comp., Transports Feb 6 close London Footsie and Germany DAX .. Feb 9 close are taken out on a closing basis. Look for confirmation by getting the majority here. If these levels remain untrammeled, STAY SHORT!!!!! If they are taken out close shorty and retreat to bear cave to feast on spoils. Then reload and wait to short from higher. A twofer. ------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------- Continue to stay SHORT but lean towards tightening your STOP to protect your SHORT profits by going into the 30-min. timeframe. Why the sudden urge to tighten? Nasdaq not confirming Dow's crash below lows and Nasdaq versus S&P500 is actually breaking out northbound (Technology leads ... ). In Asia there are many not confirming Dow's ugliness. Also, VIX not breaking out north. But most importantly, the once mighty and perhaps still mighty Dow Jones is just 20-50 points shy of the 50% retracement support dating all the way back to the 1800s. Furthermore, I have a sneaking suspicion that we need a mini wave c up to finish the current weird looking a-b-c. If, ..... and only if this support ignites, the northbound launch rate will be measured in miles/sec. Hence the urge to tighten the STOP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmonica Posted February 27, 2009 Author Share Posted February 27, 2009 Lots of Media hoopla about Dow Jones and S&P500 revisiting the Nov 21 lows for a retest. Too much speculation and too many things to consider.But cutting to the chase as a technician whose only job is to turn Lead into Gold and pinpointing only what's important to a medium-term TREND trader who is currently on the correct side of the market, namely SHORT, -------------------------------------------------------------------- STAY SHORT ..... unless ... S&P500, Dow Jones Jan 28 close and VIX Jan 6 close Nasdaq Comp., Transports Feb 6 close London Footsie and Germany DAX .. Feb 9 close are taken out on a closing basis. Look for confirmation by getting the majority here. If these levels remain untrammeled, STAY SHORT!!!!! If they are taken out close shorty and retreat to bear cave to feast on spoils. Then reload and wait to short from higher. A twofer. ------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------- Continue to stay SHORT but lean towards tightening your STOP to protect your SHORT profits by going into the 30-min. timeframe. Why the sudden urge to tighten? Nasdaq not confirming Dow's crash below lows and Nasdaq versus S&P500 is actually breaking out northbound (Technology leads ... ). In Asia there are many not confirming Dow's ugliness. Also, VIX not breaking out north. But most importantly, the once mighty and perhaps still mighty Dow Jones is just 20-50 points shy of the 50% retracement support dating all the way back to the 1800s. Furthermore, I have a sneaking suspicion that we need a mini wave c up to finish the current weird looking a-b-c. If, ..... and only if this support ignites, the northbound launch rate will be measured in miles/sec. Hence the urge to tighten the STOP ----------------------------------------------- Close ALL SHORT positions and go to 100% CASH - withdraw your cash from brokerage accounts, then put it anywhere but a bank. Then just become a spectator, hide and watch. Preservation and protection of Capital is our creed. Greed kills and maims, be satisfied and happy with your spoils. If the market rallies north you'll be happy you took SHORT profits. If it however crashes further and you feel you should have continued to be SHORT, resist the temptation to re-enter - you might not get paid neither winnings nor your capital. Hasta la vista Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmonica Posted March 17, 2009 Author Share Posted March 17, 2009 Lots of Media hoopla about Dow Jones and S&P500 revisiting the Nov 21 lows for a retest. Too much speculation and too many things to consider.But cutting to the chase as a technician whose only job is to turn Lead into Gold and pinpointing only what's important to a medium-term TREND trader who is currently on the correct side of the market, namely SHORT, -------------------------------------------------------------------- STAY SHORT ..... unless ... S&P500, Dow Jones Jan 28 close and VIX Jan 6 close Nasdaq Comp., Transports Feb 6 close London Footsie and Germany DAX .. Feb 9 close are taken out on a closing basis. Look for confirmation by getting the majority here. If these levels remain untrammeled, STAY SHORT!!!!! If they are taken out close shorty and retreat to bear cave to feast on spoils. Then reload and wait to short from higher. A twofer. ------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------- Continue to stay SHORT but lean towards tightening your STOP to protect your SHORT profits by going into the 30-min. timeframe. Why the sudden urge to tighten? Nasdaq not confirming Dow's crash below lows and Nasdaq versus S&P500 is actually breaking out northbound (Technology leads ... ). In Asia there are many not confirming Dow's ugliness. Also, VIX not breaking out north. But most importantly, the once mighty and perhaps still mighty Dow Jones is just 20-50 points shy of the 50% retracement support dating all the way back to the 1800s. Furthermore, I have a sneaking suspicion that we need a mini wave c up to finish the current weird looking a-b-c. If, ..... and only if this support ignites, the northbound launch rate will be measured in miles/sec. Hence the urge to tighten the STOP ----------------------------------------------- Close ALL SHORT positions and go to 100% CASH - withdraw your cash from brokerage accounts, then put it anywhere but a bank. Then just become a spectator, hide and watch. Preservation and protection of Capital is our creed. Greed kills and maims, be satisfied and happy with your spoils. If the market rallies north you'll be happy you took SHORT profits. If it however crashes further and you feel you should have continued to be SHORT, resist the temptation to re-enter - you might not get paid neither winnings nor your capital. Hasta la vista --------------------------------------- The call to take profit is shown on the S&P500 (taken here as the world proxy) chart as the arrow - 5 days before the bottom (if this is indeed the bottom). Anyway, moving on, the chart shows my current wavecount. The TREND is DOWN! .. until further notice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bel Mondo Posted March 18, 2009 Share Posted March 18, 2009 Harmonica - I enjoyed your postings and found them incisive. How about starting a new thread and commenting on the market? It would be helpful to many of us who are not really trained in this area -- and would be alot more helpful than most brokers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmonica Posted March 18, 2009 Author Share Posted March 18, 2009 Harmonica - I enjoyed your postings and found them incisive.How about starting a new thread and commenting on the market? It would be helpful to many of us who are not really trained in this area -- and would be alot more helpful than most brokers. ---------------------------------- Thanks. We might have to stick to this thread for now as there are just too many oldtimers who have become cops here and they're just itching to send me back to the joint for another 4 years. All I did was kiss the girl. See chart of S&P500 - 60-min. realtime analysis taking into account upto yesterdays action. Alternative count shown in red. Any trendline break should be taken seriously by short-term traders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nouf Posted March 18, 2009 Share Posted March 18, 2009 (edited) Lots of Media hoopla about Dow Jones and S&P500 revisiting the Nov 21 lows for a retest. Too much speculation and too many things to consider.But cutting to the chase as a technician whose only job is to turn Lead into Gold and pinpointing only what's important to a medium-term TREND trader who is currently on the correct side of the market, namely SHORT, -------------------------------------------------------------------- STAY SHORT ..... unless ... S&P500, Dow Jones Jan 28 close and VIX Jan 6 close Nasdaq Comp., Transports Feb 6 close London Footsie and Germany DAX .. Feb 9 close are taken out on a closing basis. Look for confirmation by getting the majority here. If these levels remain untrammeled, STAY SHORT!!!!! If they are taken out close shorty and retreat to bear cave to feast on spoils. Then reload and wait to short from higher. A twofer. ------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------- Continue to stay SHORT but lean towards tightening your STOP to protect your SHORT profits by going into the 30-min. timeframe. Why the sudden urge to tighten? Nasdaq not confirming Dow's crash below lows and Nasdaq versus S&P500 is actually breaking out northbound (Technology leads ... ). In Asia there are many not confirming Dow's ugliness. Also, VIX not breaking out north. But most importantly, the once mighty and perhaps still mighty Dow Jones is just 20-50 points shy of the 50% retracement support dating all the way back to the 1800s. Furthermore, I have a sneaking suspicion that we need a mini wave c up to finish the current weird looking a-b-c. If, ..... and only if this support ignites, the northbound launch rate will be measured in miles/sec. Hence the urge to tighten the STOP ----------------------------------------------- Close ALL SHORT positions and go to 100% CASH - withdraw your cash from brokerage accounts, then put it anywhere but a bank. Then just become a spectator, hide and watch. Preservation and protection of Capital is our creed. Greed kills and maims, be satisfied and happy with your spoils. If the market rallies north you'll be happy you took SHORT profits. If it however crashes further and you feel you should have continued to be SHORT, resist the temptation to re-enter - you might not get paid neither winnings nor your capital. Hasta la vista --------------------------------------- The call to take profit is shown on the S&P500 (taken here as the world proxy) chart as the arrow - 5 days before the bottom (if this is indeed the bottom). Anyway, moving on, the chart shows my current wavecount. The TREND is DOWN! .. until further notice Funny that because where i was looking the trend has been UP for the past few days, and my account shows real money as the bears have been throwing themselves in front of a train like all dumb traders they want to short the lows after a decline that started in Jan 09, looking for Armageddon Numbers, and get forced out, once they capitulate then we will have a meaningful top in place All i see is fear, not fear from the bulls fear from the Bears that got roasted the past week Unless it was a mirage Ask the bears what happens if we violate the 780 and the 805 area on the SPX are they going to summise that we are still in a wave 4 of (5)??? ala EWI count I think you will find the trend has indeed changed if we pass 805, and i am expecting a multi-week/month rally back towards the 950 area or higher, as many bears get forced out and a short squeeze gets momentum market does this time and time again, it never changes, too many on to one particular count and too many geared to one side regarding your EW count, i can see why you post the "end is nigh" talk, as your count has got to be the most bearish count on the planet good luck with that count, but if you want to leave 100+ point rallies alone, be my guest, but money is money, and right now we ARE very near a confirmed trend change on the SPX needs a little more upside but confirmation is near, and pullbacks can be bought as the trend will likely be UP over the Spring/Summer ( that`s not to say when this move that started from 666 eventually tops out there wont be a retracement,) but key support in the SPX is now 715 and 734 Sentiment was ripe at the recent low and for a change of trend and too many Bears looking for lower lows of 600 or lower, when the market has other ideas The NDX has confirmed the trend change, (nothing is certain like the market never is) but i will take my chances on a trend change, for the next few weeks/months of a substanial rally with a move likely to be back to 950 Hopefully the Bears will keep shorting this market and adding further fuel for higher prices i have no doubt that eventually the market will be heading alot lower over the coming months, but is that after we rally another 100 points ??? Edited March 18, 2009 by Nouf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmonica Posted March 19, 2009 Author Share Posted March 19, 2009 Harmonica - I enjoyed your postings and found them incisive.How about starting a new thread and commenting on the market? It would be helpful to many of us who are not really trained in this area -- and would be alot more helpful than most brokers. ---------------------------------- Thanks. We might have to stick to this thread for now as there are just too many oldtimers who have become cops here and they're just itching to send me back to the joint for another 4 years. All I did was kiss the girl. See chart of S&P500 - 60-min. realtime analysis taking into account upto yesterdays action. Alternative count shown in red. Any trendline break should be taken seriously by short-term traders. ------------------------------------------------------ Trendline still the guide. Current resistance level @ 61.8% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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