Caution! Nasdaq, Dow, Sp, Nikkei, Hang Seng

[Firefan]

PTE/Harmonica; I have been reading this whole thread like a novel and very pleased with the (sofar! ) happy ending of PTE back to breaking even! Congrats!

PTE you are at break even but fully invested/on margin. That at the upper range of the 52 wk range. Would it be prudent to at least limit/remove the margin debt before doing your trailing stop loss method with the rest?

Just a thought. Cheers!

[Slingblade333]

It's strange to think that someone would invest using technical tools like moving averages, I think this one in particular has been flogged to death. Triangles, head and shoulders, wedges, the list goes on. They don't work, unless everyone believes in them and then it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy, I suppose this is why people think they work. Imagine 10,000 people drawing a triangle, overlap them and you'll end up with a quantum triangle, this is where you get your movement, based on each persons perception and technical drawing skills, I guess this is technicals too. I have a friend who has been using stochastics for the last 10 years on the US bond market, he considers himself a technical analysist but after observing him for many years, I watch him factor in fundamentals and an uncanny knack to anticipate what Alan Greenspan has to say, add his strange preminitions in the middle of the night that usually serves him well, I'm beginning to think if he had of thrown a dead chicken over his shoulder for the last 30 years it might help him also.

I think most technical analysis is antiquated these days, the guys at the top, know your patterns better than you do. They are using alogratmic and crud AI, you can't beat it and if you are doing well, call it luck and the historical curve of the market. For $29.95, I'll guarantee you'll make 1000% on your money, say in the next hundred years, I'll even write an option to this effect!

[ProThaiExpat]

PTE/Harmonica; I have been reading this whole thread like a novel and very pleased with the (sofar! ) happy ending of PTE back to breaking even! Congrats! 

PTE you are at break even but fully invested/on margin. That at the upper range of the 52 wk range. Would it be prudent to at least limit/remove the margin debt before doing your trailing stop loss method with the rest?

Just a thought. Cheers! 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You must have misread one of my posts as I haven't been on margin since 2002. That was the way I lost a lot of my fortune. Margin calls did me in and I am now firmly entrenched with the notion that you don't lose money until you sell. I have also extended my window of opportunity to make five or ten percent to a year. Thus, I have waited for six months, so far, to get where I am here. Admiiedly, I entered the market at a very high point based on some bad advice from "timing experts".

My "read" on QQQQ is that it will hit 40 or more this calendar year, perhaps as many have prognosticated, in the second half of the year. That is when I will beging my exit strategy in preparation for being short next year.

I am counting on continued IT replacement and investment to push the Nasdaq to old highs or new ones this year. If it doesn't happen, I will bail after the Christmas rally.

[Firefan]

Slingblade; I do not really disagree. The 200 day moving avg does seem to have some value at back tests, but as they say in the mutual fund ads; "historical returns does not guarentee future returns".

I am mostly a buy and holder; but I DO have my "play money" trying out all kinds of exotic stuff (while being beating by my buy and hold portfolio ).

PTE seems to have biggest part of his nest egg in QQQQ and trying to trade in and out if it which would make me a bit nervous no matter what system/rules/stop losses being used.

Cheers!

[Harmonica]

I have exited Wave C -- @ approx. $39.79 average exit intraday.

Its been a good run & I'm satisfied!

Adios amigos, nos vemos en la proxima vida!

[OxfordWill]

So what's gonna happen next, expert? (no..seriously)

[ProThaiExpat]

So what's gonna happen next, expert? (no..seriously)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I did not sell with a measly 1K$ profit at the top of Harmoica's "C" wave as I was looking to make more and was counting on the balance of the year performance of the Naxdaq that many have touted as very favorable for techs.

AmericanBulls.com has a QQQQ timing page which I follow and I was quite surprised to see they did not post a "Sell" signal, which they usually do when you see a decling price level throghout the day, as occured on Thrusday.

Perhaps they agree with me that we are in some form of a bull market and that Thrursday was a "profit taking" event and nothing more in a bull upswing.

I loved to hear one market strategist opine on CNBC that if Nasdaq breaks the resistence level at 2200, 2350 is possible in this enviroment.

I post AmericanBulls.com page here:

BUY-IF

39.575

-0.3350 -0.84%

Candlestick Analysis

Today’s Candlestick Patterns:

Black Candlestick

Bullish Upside Gap Three Methods

Today a Black Candlestick was formed. This represents normal selling pressure.

For more about this candlestick click here.

The last three candlesticks formed a Bullish Upside Gap Three Methods Pattern . This is a bullish continuation pattern that confirms the current uptrend. However, its reliability is not very high and it requires confirmation

[Nam Kao]

QQQQ

The day ends headed down and I was hoping as I watched it we would see some support lines broken but none were visible on the charts I looked at. The wave can count either as an ABC or a 123 with the day not seeing C or 3 complete, this will send us down on the open to test our trendline supports on Monday, if we bounce them it will lead to new highs at the same time if they fail we very well could be headed down for the next week or two at a minimum.

The levels we have reached and the wave counts here have both bull and bear and we are at a crossroads. We are either moving in a 3rd wave of 5 up after a double zig zag in the colossal degree or we are finishing a 32C and getting ready for a grand decline. It's super bull or super bear, the bear case is supported by charts that need a serious decline from here, the bull case is supported by the proximity of and or the setting of new highs on the indexes.

[Firefan]

So it is either going UP or DOWN.... or maybe it will just linger around for a while..? I find this technical stuff entertaining, but hard to use in real life. Cheers!

QQQQ

The day ends headed down and I was hoping as I watched it we would see some support lines broken but none were visible on the charts I looked at. The wave can count either as an ABC or a 123 with the day not seeing C or 3 complete, this will send us down on the open to test our trendline supports on Monday, if we bounce them it will lead to new highs at the same time if they fail we very well could be headed down for the next week or two at a minimum.

  The levels we have reached and the wave counts here have both bull and bear and we are at a crossroads. We are either moving in a 3rd wave of 5 up after a double zig zag in the colossal degree or we are finishing a 32C and getting ready for a grand decline.  It's super bull or super bear, the bear case is supported by charts that need a serious decline from here, the bull case is supported by the proximity of and or the setting of new highs on the indexes.

[OxfordWill]

And what about the LSE and FTSE?

Edited July 30, 2005 by OxfordWill

[Harmonica]

So it is either going UP or DOWN.... or maybe it will just linger around for a while..?    I find this technical stuff entertaining , but hard to use in real life. Cheers!

QQQQ

The day ends headed down and I was hoping as I watched it we would see some support lines broken but none were visible on the charts I looked at. The wave can count either as an ABC or a 123 with the day not seeing C or 3 complete, this will send us down on the open to test our trendline supports on Monday, if we bounce them it will lead to new highs at the same time if they fail we very well could be headed down for the next week or two at a minimum.

   The levels we have reached and the wave counts here have both bull and bear and we are at a crossroads. We are either moving in a 3rd wave of 5 up after a double zig zag in the colossal degree or we are finishing a 32C and getting ready for a grand decline.  It's super bull or super bear, the bear case is supported by charts that need a serious decline from here, the bull case is supported by the proximity of and or the setting of new highs on the indexes.

Rough guesstimate -- I count 20 out of your 150 posts wherein you've stated pretty much the same opinion about Technical Analysis -- "entertaining, but hard to use in real life!" Women say NO, NO, NO but they mean Yes, Yes, Yes -- if you are like this please get a book and start learning -- if you are not like this, well then please continue -- you are doing a good job of convincing yourself!

[Firefan]

Hi Harmonica!

I think there might be maybe 3-5 posts from me commenting on it - don't take it personal I am still studying it to see if I can see any proof of efficiency... - so far not convinced, and posts saying "it will go up or down" does not really convince me .

Cheers!

[Harmonica]

Hi Harmonica!

I think there might be maybe 3-5 posts from me commenting on it - don't take it personal I am still studying it to see if I can see any proof of efficiency... - so far not convinced, and posts saying "it will go up or down" does not really convince me .

Cheers!

Besides sideways, is there any other direction other than UP or DOWN?

And by sideways I mean to the right; or perhaps in your case, to the left?

Technical Analysis is not your problem, son!

[sendbaht]

Not big money earned but have bought lots of GM bonds. Only going out 3 to 4 years. Yes "junk" but they pay 7 to 9% and you get your money back.

Risk sure but I do not feel GM will go bankrup in 4 years, never really.

[Nam Kao]

>>> I find this technical stuff entertaining

This technical &lt;deleted&gt; is no good, i am only up 42% from 1/1/05

[Braccobaldo]

>>> I find this technical stuff entertaining

This technical &lt;deleted&gt; is no good, i am only up 42% from 1/1/05

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

..not enough??

[Firefan]

42%! Impressive! Congrats! Cheers!

[sendbaht]

>>> I find this technical stuff entertaining

This technical &lt;deleted&gt; is no good, i am only up 42% from 1/1/05

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Nice!!!!!! much better then my 7 to 9% for sure. Keep it going....

[Harmonica]

Shortsellers candy    -- for the intrepid, don't ignore General Motors -- confirmed downtrend and dangerous to play LONG -- but there are terrific odds that if the stateside rally starts in the next several days, GM will shoot up to and past her 20-day Moving Average -- for a quick, sweet $3-6 supercharged  blast ...

but its a very dangerous play; I'm mentioning it because it keeps me on my toes and I just love its cataclysmic drops into the dark side.

A technician's paradise of study -- is our beautiful GM .

The relentless audit continues.

This call was made on March 24th and less than 1 month later, on April 19th General Motors woke up and charged northwards.

This is a $13 charge or 50% gain in 2 months thus far for the intrepid player.

For sendbaht,

Only old ladies who drive Cadillacs and Continentals buy GM bonds -- whiz kids like you who drive Porshes, especially the turbo versions should play GM stock!

What would Steve Taub say if he saw you being so untrue to your "playboy" side?

Here's the call I made on General Motors (GM) on March 24th. For proper perspective on this call you will note that GM had been dropping like a stone for quite a while and there was not a single analyst or reporter that was not convinced it would go straight to H*ll.

Against this backdrop I made the call for a rally. I mentioned the high risk level clearly.

Refer to the chart below -- the red arrow shows where I made the call and the # 1 at the lower part of the graph shows where the bottom occurred and the rally started.

I am now advising/suggesting that one should lock in profits (a range of $12) -- looks like we will be heading down soon.

Give my regards to Steve Taub & Peter Morris -- if they are still there on Santa Monica & 11th.

[Harmonica]

Not big money earned but have bought lots of GM bonds. Only going out 3 to 4 years. Yes "junk" but they pay 7 to 9% and you get your money back.

Risk sure but I do not feel GM will go bankrup in 4 years, never really.

Don't fall asleep at the wheel!

Besides having its bonds downgraded to junk status, keep this in mind:

"GM has 302 billion in debt. and is the 2nd biggest in-hock outfit in history"

Other than that life continues to be sweet in LOS!

[Harmonica]

Shortsellers candy   -- for the intrepid, don't ignore General Motors -- confirmed downtrend and dangerous to play LONG -- but there are terrific odds that if the stateside rally starts in the next several days, GM will shoot up to and past her 20-day Moving Average -- for a quick, sweet $3-6 supercharged  blast ...

but its a very dangerous play; I'm mentioning it because it keeps me on my toes and I just love its cataclysmic drops into the dark side.

A technician's paradise of study -- is our beautiful GM .

The relentless audit continues.

This call was made on March 24th and less than 1 month later, on April 19th General Motors woke up and charged northwards.

This is a $13 charge or 50% gain in 2 months thus far for the intrepid player.

For sendbaht,

Only old ladies who drive Cadillacs and Continentals buy GM bonds -- whiz kids like you who drive Porshes, especially the turbo versions should play GM stock!

What would Steve Taub say if he saw you being so untrue to your "playboy" side?

Here's the call I made on General Motors (GM) on March 24th. For proper perspective on this call you will note that GM had been dropping like a stone for quite a while and there was not a single analyst or reporter that was not convinced it would go straight to H*ll.

Against this backdrop I made the call for a rally. I mentioned the high risk level clearly.

Refer to the chart below -- the red arrow shows where I made the call and the # 1 at the lower part of the graph shows where the bottom occurred and the rally started.

I am now advising/suggesting that one should lock in profits (a range of $12) -- looks like we will be heading down soon.

Give my regards to Steve Taub & Peter Morris -- if they are still there on Santa Monica & 11th.

+10 on a scale of 1-10

My exit call was one day before the avalanche. How prescient is that?

The call was a perfect call; nothing short of a "miraculous intervention".

I will pat myself on the back because I'm a self-sufficient unit; & because I live in a land where personal dislikes preclude professional courtesy -- the only time the herd has something to say is when the predator is WRONG, in which case he gets lambasted with torrents of ignorance -- when correct, he is, at best, ignored!

See the chart below for the 2 red arrows showing both entry and exit. The entry was several days early and had some drawdown; the exit was P-oy-fect!

[Harmonica]

I have exited Wave C -- @ approx. $39.79 average exit intraday.

Its been a good run & I'm satisfied!

Adios amigos, nos vemos en la proxima vida!   

+10 .... another perfect call!

I waited this long to post this because we did not have a new LOW the QQQQ. We now do! This therefore completes the call.

The cycle of action is therefore complete.

Whether QQQQ reverses and heads back up is irrelevant; I am not making a call at this time.

Further thoughts/Analysis on the move gone by:

Its difficult to accurately gauge/grade an Elliottwave Analysis call while the move is still in motion. Why? Because even the foremost authority on Elliotwave, Robert Prechter has been wrong since October 2002. Why? I don't know. I have profound respect for his tech. skills, but he has been off for a long time. That saddens me greatly for I enjoy his articles and books immensely.

[Harmonica]

Some final thoughts and review/grading of my call on the title of this thread:

The thread was started in January at a TOP. As you can see clearly, we have gone nowhere; just up and down, down and up and then down again. That is called a TRADING RANGE.

The Nikkei however has made a new High. Flunk on this!

I take a giant FLUNK for not seeing that coming back in 2004.

But then, in my defense, NOBODY else did either!

So even though money is being made TRADING the the range, it is absolutely disgusting for me. I don't like it at all.

My call for the thread still holds LONG-TERM .

My overall grade for this thread call is therefore no better than a +5 .

If the market breaks out topside and blows past 11,751 for the Dow, I will revise my grade to ZERO -- unless I see it before the breakout!

[ProThaiExpat]

Dear Harmonica: By your definition, I am not one of the herd as I have never lambasted you.

Do let me know when the downtrend in QQQQ has reached its zenith.

I rode QQQQ past my high purchase level once and then back down again trying to make some meaningful profit until it dawned on me that I was trying to make money at the top of the range, dumb huh. Also, I realized that if I made half my expectations on the upside and half on the downside, a lot easier and the money is the same. Duh.

Anyway, having learned the foregoing, I sold at breakeven 95.55 and went short at that price. I am now approaching 5% profit on the down side and so would really like to bail out if you see a rally comming.

With all the bad news and the year end rally a long way off, I have felt the "rough" October had a couple of weeks to go. What do you think. I certainly will start stop loss positions every 25 cents on the way down below 38. I have always been partial to your "sling shot" theory when it comes to the 200 day moving average, so I was thinking there was a good chance that there wouldn't be a rally until we got to about 37.8 or lower. Help!!!

[Harmonica]

Cannot advise at this time.

Why?

All markets are at a critical level.

For a serious headache take a look at the Dow Jones Transportation Index. It is clearly showing a H&S pattern. This pattern is one of the most reliable technical patterns (85%+ accuracy). If the neckline gets taken out, we have the scenario for my "thread title" call. If not, we don't have doodly squat, just more of the same exasperating sideways movement.

As for your taking a shine to the 200-day moving average and its charms, kindly note that he has once again delivered the mail on time and as per his character, when he supported and carried the QQQQ yesterday for a hefty gain while other markets showed zip. The 200-day for the Nasdaq versus S&P also shows a good bounce yesterday.

QQQQ is at a strong weekly support.

I have no stock positions, neither LONG nor SHORT.

[ProThaiExpat]

The bounce continues in early trading on Friday, but I am hoping for what most consider an inevitable turnaround and return to bearish behavior before the end of trade on Friday.

The latest doublespeak that the core inflation figure is what we should pay attention to when the CPI rose more than in twenty years,

is so much bull.

The pass through of inflation into prices and Fed intrest raising into next year is what I think will affect the markets the most in the near term.

Plan on shifting from short to long in the middle of December or just before year end.

[ProThaiExpat]

The bounce continues in early trading on Friday, but I am hoping for what most consider an inevitable turnaround and return to bearish behavior before the end of trade on Friday.

The latest doublespeak that the core inflation figure is what we should pay attention to when the CPI rose more than in twenty years,

is so much bull.

The pass through of inflation into prices and Fed intrest raising into next year is what I think will affect the markets the most in the near term.

Plan on shifting from short to long in the middle of December or just before year end.

A lot sooner if I hit my 10% short gain before then.

[Harmonica]

Cannot advise at this time.

Why?

All markets are at a critical level. 

For a serious headache take a look at the Dow Jones Transportation Index.  It is clearly showing a H&S pattern.  This pattern is one of the most reliable technical patterns (85%+ accuracy).  If the neckline gets taken out, we have the scenario for my "thread title" call.  If not, we don't have doodly squat, just more of the same exasperating sideways movement.

As for your taking a shine to the 200-day moving average and its charms, kindly note that he has once again delivered the mail on time and as per his character , when he supported and carried the QQQQ yesterday for a hefty gain while other markets showed zip.  The 200-day for the Nasdaq versus S&P also shows a good bounce yesterday.

QQQQ is at a strong weekly support. 

I have no stock positions, neither LONG nor SHORT.

PTE,

The 200-day gives yet another day of gains.

Looking @ its track record, perhaps it would be wise to start a new religion with the 200-day as the chief priest/priestess?

[Nam Kao]

Qs Fri

It appears today's action was a corrective fourth wave, if true we are going to see a large decline come Monday. Fifth waves like to gap up then reverse hard, day traders should plan to short a large gap up Monday

[ProThaiExpat]

Harmonica: A 'new religion" is what it would be as I was quite apprehensive when whe got down to the 200 day this week, my being short. As you have previously advised, the depth of the penetration often indicates the amount of the "slingshot" effect. A half dollar was more than enough for me.

The last post warms my heart.

There have been two 200 day breaches, one very severe, which resulted in the bull rally that took us to the top again. Hopefully, I will be out with my 10% before the bottom is reached so I can relax. A long position anywhere around 35 makes me sanguine, assumming the downtrend levels off there.