Why Did Thaksin Opt For Violent Confrontation At This Time?

[Steely Dan]

I think it went out of control. I doubt he expected the Red Shirts to be burning buses, threatening to blow up Din Deang with a tanker full of petrol, beating the residents of DinDeang when they told the Red Shirts to bugger off or the army to move in.

So a miscalculation, an undiscipline mob that alienated and frightened the masses. So no massive up rising by the people. Hence he is not here "to lead the revolution".

I think the Redshirts are escalating the violence because they probably took Toxin's money and headed down to Bangkok for some alternative Songkran fun armed with sticks bottles and ya-ba tablets. I suspect the ya-ba hangovers are resulting in more psychotic behavior, which is kind of ironic considering Toxin's war on drugs. At the end of the day if anyone puts the life of other citizens in immediate danger the authorities are within their rights to shoot to kill.

They need to end this now before Songkran is over and more hotheads from the North try and reinforce these mercenary psychopaths.

[marell]

I have been watching the news on tv as well as reading it online and am not sure I understand why Thaksin chose this moment to go for broke and push for violent confrontation?

Possibly the original idea was to disrupt the ASEAN summit. If only to embarrass the current government. Apparently this proved much easier to accomplish than might have been anticipated. I believe at that point he could have perceived a ‘window of opportunity’ and decided to push the issue and call for ‘revolution’. It would seem, however, that the ‘window of opportunity’ may be closing…or may have never been there in the first place. So he is now perhaps backpedaling somewhat and calling for peaceful demonstrations. Either way the meter is running and time is not on his side. Just a thought…time may tell.

[PeaceBlondie]

I do not believe Thaksin (can we cut out the crappy puns, please?) was forced to follow the example of the yellows. He made a lot of errors in judgment and tactics, and he lost the battle which he should have known would go very violently. He either did not know who his thugs were, or knew full well. He is bright enough to have known better, but is more likely insane now.

[Ricardo]

Why at this time ?

Because he has seen the new Democrat-led coalition-government continue with his populist policies, and knows that they will gain credit for this, as the realisation sinks in that Thaksin/TRT are not the only people who can help the poor ?

Because he sees his influence declining. as time passes, and especially when he has now been found guilty in a court, and his lawyers have failed in an attempt to buy justice. His reputation is becoming increasingly tarnished ?

Because he knows that the share of the vote he or his nominees would get has been falling, which is why he didn't order his brother-in-law to call a new election, while he still could ?

Because he is becoming increasingly isolated, Newin & his own wife have both abandoned him, this is having an effect on him mentally, and he feels it is 'now or never'. His power is drifting away from him ?

Because the recent black-magic ceremonies ensure that this time he cannot lose ?

Tick any/all of the above.

[h90]

I do not believe Thaksin (can we cut out the crappy puns, please?) was forced to follow the example of the yellows. He made a lot of errors in judgment and tactics, and he lost the battle which he should have known would go very violently. He either did not know who his thugs were, or knew full well. He is bright enough to have known better, but is more likely insane now.

I think people around him took a lot of money and made him believe that all Thai people love Thaksin. So they are the messenger of good news and he opens his wallet.

Based on that he made some wrong decisions. Most probably he thought all the people would uprise and fight for him.

Something like the Fuehrer in his Bunker ordering armys which don't exist anymore....

[h90]

Comments in red

Why at this time ?

Because he has seen the new Democrat-led coalition-government continue with his populist policies, and knows that they will gain credit for this, as the realisation sinks in that Thaksin/TRT are not the only people who can help the poor ?

Because he sees his influence declining. as time passes, and especially when he has now been found guilty in a court, and his lawyers have failed in an attempt to buy justice. His reputation is becoming increasingly tarnished ?

Because he knows that the share of the vote he or his nominees would get has been falling, which is why he didn't order his brother-in-law to call a new election, while he still could ?

Because he is becoming increasingly isolated, Newin & his own wife have both abandoned him, this is having an effect on him mentally, and he feels it is 'now or never'. His power is drifting away from him ?

I am not sure about his wife or which game she is playing.

Because the recent black-magic ceremonies ensure that this time he cannot lose ?

He told something from now is the "golden time". But most probable his enemys had the better magic again. (I recall when Sondhi scared him to hel_l with his magic ideas)

Tick any/all of the above.

[Publicus]

It seems the past several posts have, as a whole, summed up the why now question. Moreover, I too think he's insane.

People in China ask me what's going on in Thailand. I advise my Chinese colleagues that after 10 years in Thailand I know less now than when I'd arrived in LoS in 1998. The Chinese of course tend to like the Sino-Thai Thaksin because of his People's Republic of Thailand idea. Fascism is alive and well in China too.

All the same, however, the educated class of Chinese I work and associate with here on the mainland truly look down on Thailand culturally and civilizationally. The Taipei Chinese, who know their democracy isn't perfect, wonder why the Thais just can't seem to find some way to make their democracy even appear to work.

I myself have come to see Thailand as a failed 3rd world state of Africa transported to SouthEast Asia. Right alongside Burma/Myanmar.

Edited April 14, 2009 by Publicus

[zaphodbeeblebrox]

All the same, however, the educated class of Chinese I work and associate with here on the mainland truly look down on Thailand culturally and civilizationally.

As do the Thais with respect to the Chinese, especially commercially.

[stevenl]

I think it went out of control. I doubt he expected the Red Shirts to be burning buses, threatening to blow up Din Deang with a tanker full of petrol, beating the residents of DinDeang when they told the Red Shirts to bugger off or the army to move in.

So a miscalculation, an undiscipline mob that alienated and frightened the masses. So no massive up rising by the people. Hence he is not here "to lead the revolution".

No, he knew this was coming, which is why he sent his whole family away from Thailand.

His assets are frozen and he was losing influence, even in the areas that have been very supportive of him, which showed in the by elections that were held recently. This was his last gasp, he now has lost all credibility with hit main voices in Thailand.

[Publicus]

All the same, however, the educated class of Chinese I work and associate with here on the mainland truly look down on Thailand culturally and civilizationally.

As do the Thais with respect to the Chinese, especially commercially.

True. Rama VI openly referred to the Chinese-Thais and the Chinese in Thailand as the "Jews of Asia." The view was held especially in a sharp contrast to the want-nothing Buddhists of Thailand and of SE Asia in general.

Edited April 14, 2009 by Publicus

[Publicus]

I think it went out of control. I doubt he expected the Red Shirts to be burning buses, threatening to blow up Din Deang with a tanker full of petrol, beating the residents of DinDeang when they told the Red Shirts to bugger off or the army to move in.

So a miscalculation, an undiscipline mob that alienated and frightened the masses. So no massive up rising by the people. Hence he is not here "to lead the revolution".

No, he knew this was coming, which is why he sent his whole family away from Thailand.

His assets are frozen and he was losing influence, even in the areas that have been very supportive of him, which showed in the by elections that were held recently. This was his last gasp, he now has lost all credibility with hit main voices in Thailand.

Thaksin is a man without a country.

I'd agree with the view that once the situation at the ASEAN+6 meeting so easily got out of hand, Thaksin and the Reds thought they'd found a hole so big in Abishit's government they could drive a revolution through it.

Good thing Toxin and the Reds were proved wrong. Indeed, now that Toxin knows he can't get even by destroying Thailand itself, I suspect he's becoming a completely broken man.

[gaipad]

Get real guys! Thaksin did not explicitly say stop the violence to the red shirts instead he called for a revolution and that more people join the red shirts. That was at a point in time when there were already fights...

So you believe he really wanted this to be peaceful? He probably would have liked to get things his way in a peaceful manner but first and foremost he wanted to get things his way no matter how. All gas tankers came from a company owned by Thaksins brother by the way.

[Cayenne]

I think people around him took a lot of money and made him believe that all Thai people love Thaksin. So they are the messenger of good news and he opens his wallet.

Based on that he made some wrong decisions. Most probably he thought all the people would uprise and fight for him.

Something like the Fuehrer in his Bunker ordering armys which don't exist anymore....

Quite a few of the "educated" red shirts obviously despise Thaksin but can't ignore his money, so they thought that they might as well take him (and his generous wallet) along for the ride to further their cause. But they forgot that his money also pays for his thugs and goons who did most of the damage this past weekend.

[zaphodbeeblebrox]

I'd agree with the view that once the situation at the ASEAN+6 meeting so easily got out of hand, Thaksin and the Reds thought they'd found a hole so big in Abishit's government they could drive a revolution through it.

Well said. A peaceful protest turned into a violent rebellion. Fortunately, the army was up to the task, after the police failed miserably in Pattaya, both at the battle between the red shirts and blue shirts, and in protecting the Royal Beach Hotel and PEACH conference center.

Edited April 14, 2009 by zaphodbeeblebrox

[seri thai]

The protests started off peaceful. The ASEAN summit invasion showed signs of thuggishness. Thaksin then urged the red shirts to engage in a revolt. He egged them on with his poor choice of words. Maybe he didn't specifically tell them to resort to violence, but his interview denial doesn't erase the fact that he incited the red shirts to riot. That's an additional criminal offense on his part.

Reasons I listed on another thread:

1)ASEAN

2)Songkran

3)Recession

4)Revenge for Oct last year

5) Waning finances & influence

5)Astrological signs

6)Perceived public disaffection with government

7)Perceived welfare/weakness of high institutions

Personally I think he'd have had better luck 1-2 years down the line with items 3, 6 & 7 but items 1, 2, 4 and 5 pre-empted him.

p.s. If 7 is deleted by the mods, you can guess what it might have referred to!

Edited April 15, 2009 by seri thai

[BigSnake]

He has run out of Options, plain and simple.

[MiG16]

please use this thread to discuss your political views.

if we can try not to start too many threads to discuss the same topic from different angles, it would be very helpful.

I know everyone has different angles they would like to approach when discussing politics. However, there are more than 10 threads running in the general forum alone.

Please use this thread to discuss the pros/cons, parties, people of thai politics. Hopefully this will facilitate discussions better by having a comprehensive exchange in one thread.

please continue to contribute here, as each of your input and views are valued.

thanks so much for your understanding and patience

[Old Man River]

Why now? Lannarebirth's reasons that his frozen asset court cases are around the corner and that the Democratic Party is making gains as shown in the recent by elections along with:

The failure of a secret mediation process with the palace and military led by a European interlocutor to find a compromise solution to the country's political impasse (according to Jakrapob) and Prem's recent publicly stated support for the establishment of a new army command to oversee the northeastern region's internal security, which the 88-year-old former army commander characterized as his "last dream", according to news reports.

Summarizing, Thaksin is close to losing his money, the Democrats are making political gains, former loyal supporters are switching sides, and the military is moving towards a tighter control on the northeastern region's internal security.

In other words, he finally is seeing the writing on the wall.

[lannarebirth]

Why now? Lannarebirth's reasons that his frozen asset court cases are around the corner and that the Democratic Party is making gains as shown in the recent by elections along with:

The failure of a secret mediation process with the palace and military led by a European interlocutor to find a compromise solution to the country's political impasse (according to Jakrapob) and Prem's recent publicly stated support for the establishment of a new army command to oversee the northeastern region's internal security, which the 88-year-old former army commander characterized as his "last dream", according to news reports.

Summarizing, Thaksin is close to losing his money, the Democrats are making political gains, former loyal supporters are switching sides, and the military is moving towards a tighter control on the northeastern region's internal security.

In other words, he finally is seeing the writing on the wall.

Thaksin keeps losing battles, but far from making him more impotent, it is making him more desperate and more willing to shed his followers blood. As long as Jakropob remains free, all manner of atrocites remain possible. A truly soulless man.

[johna]

The military commander in charge of security for the Asean Summit is a relative of Taxsin

The owner of the LPG tankers shown in BKK is a relative of Taxsin

Taxsin's family depart Thailand before the demonstrations escalate.

Taxsin intervewied on CNN claiming the army had shot many Red Shirts, and their body's secretly removed.

Yes I would say Taxsin is deeply involved, and of course he will deny it.

[Old Man River]

Why now? Lannarebirth's reasons that his frozen asset court cases are around the corner and that the Democratic Party is making gains as shown in the recent by elections along with:

The failure of a secret mediation process with the palace and military led by a European interlocutor to find a compromise solution to the country's political impasse (according to Jakrapob) and Prem's recent publicly stated support for the establishment of a new army command to oversee the northeastern region's internal security, which the 88-year-old former army commander characterized as his "last dream", according to news reports.

Summarizing, Thaksin is close to losing his money, the Democrats are making political gains, former loyal supporters are switching sides, and the military is moving towards a tighter control on the northeastern region's internal security.

In other words, he finally is seeing the writing on the wall.

Thaksin keeps losing battles, but far from making him more impotent, it is making him more desperate and more willing to shed his followers blood. As long as Jakropob remains free, all manner of atrocites remain possible. A truly soulless man.

Agreed, Jakropob has moved up the list of the most dangerous people to Thailand, topped only by Thaksin himself. Soon, Jakropob will head the list.

[antony77]

Beause court cases concerning his frozen assets have been moving forward and are due to begin soon. Also his former party has been losing seats to the Democrats in recent by-elections held in the north and northeast. He was becoming irrelevant.

very true. Taksin realised that even if parliament was disolved his party (Peue Thai) would probably get less seats and there would be stronger democractic party led coalition. But after what has now happened no other parties will join Peur Thai to form a goverment.

[KireB]

Why now?

Because the Dems are cleaning up the corruptional mess he left behind. The money flow is being diverted or halted.

There's a lot of unhappy Thaksin cronies around these days,who invested fortunes in their money grabbing positions!

You dont think cronyism is a free ride dont you!

[antony77]

I have been watching the news on tv as well as reading it online and am not sure I understand why Thaksin chose this moment to go for broke and push for violent confrontation?

Taksin's stratergy was to have at least 300,000 red shirt demonstrators protest and force the government to resign and have new elections, However only about 30,000 of his supporters turned up at first. Then they were joined by another 70,000 who were paid to do so. He underestimated his support and realised that in a new election the democrat led coalition would get into power again with an increased majority. Also rather than supporting the red shitts people in Bangkok turned agaist them. So he changed tactics. He got his ex-wife to dole out millions of Baht to his hard core supporters to cause riots, fires and sabotage and then quickly leave the country for thier own safetry. Then get his pals in the police and army to stage a coup and bring him back to Thailand. But Abhsit outsmarted him.

[bungy007]

He is not stupid. He sees that these tactics worked for PAD and the Democrats. Now he is using their own tactics against them. The difference is that the Army refused to help the Taksin governments but they are helping the current Democrat government.

OP asked why now, not for an analysis of Thaksin's intelligence.

Why now?

That's an easy one.

Because the time is ripe.

Read - desperate times call for desperate measures!

[AsiaMB]

I have been watching the news on tv as well as reading it online and am not sure I understand why Thaksin chose this moment to go for broke and push for violent confrontation?

Thaksin didnt opt for violence, the head of the RED Shirts siad this was not a Thaksin innitiative, and Thaksin said that if violence was used, he would return to stop it.... it was pretty clear what he said on CNN and BBC

[Jingthing]

Its fun to watch the red heads try to rewrite history. It is totally clear criminal fugitive Thaksin was inciting violent chaos and anarchy so he could return as savior/dictator. His bold gamble failed miserably. Get over it. Your red hero, who has as much in common with Che and Mandela as I do with Brad Pitt, is a miserable exposed has been. You will never see him in power in Thailand again, even with his dastardly call ins.

[bertlamar]

I have been watching the news on tv as well as reading it online and am not sure I understand why Thaksin chose this moment to go for broke and push for violent confrontation?

Thaksin didnt opt for violence, the head of the RED Shirts siad this was not a Thaksin innitiative, and Thaksin said that if violence was used, he would return to stop it.... it was pretty clear what he said on CNN and BBC

truth or dare, did he say if the army came out to clamp down, that he would return to support and lead the country?

So.....did he turn up?

And did you listen in Thai to ANYTHING the leaders of the red shitrs were saying?

Mate, you are perhaps the most naive of all the Thaksin cheersquad (other than perhaps MC2 and Koo82) to think he isn't directly involved in the decisions made all along the way by the redshirts.

none of this happened by accident, and the thuggery which started as early as Friday morning (at least for those passing the blocked roads at Suthisarn) and threats etc were surely condoned right from the beginning.

As someone wiser than me said earlier, he overestimated his support, he overestimated how much the police would help him and his connections in the army to force a state of emergency either unacceptable to the general population or a climate that was so unstable that he could clami to be the only one to come back to fix.

He was outsmarted.

Jingthing - say hi to Angelina for us :-)

Edited April 22, 2009 by bertlamar

[Ricardo]

I have been watching the news on tv as well as reading it online and am not sure I understand why Thaksin chose this moment to go for broke and push for violent confrontation?

Thaksin didnt opt for violence, the head of the RED Shirts siad this was not a Thaksin innitiative, and Thaksin said that if violence was used, he would return to stop it.... it was pretty clear what he said on CNN and BBC

Slight correction there, Thaksin didn't say he would return to stop violence on-the-streets, he said that he would return to lead it, a pretty fundamental difference !

Unfortunately he then failed to show up, no doubt a disappointment to his loyal followers, who might now be justified in feeling somewhat betrayed by their former hero ?

But at least his family were here, to share their risks & join in the competition to see who could throw a molotov-cocktail the furthest, oh ... sorry, no my mistake, they all coincidentally took foreign-holidays just-in-time.