Stronger Baht/usd

[simcity]

The Thai economy has been weak from the last recession; the import good are costing a lot more as the Thai baht lost value.

Subsidy was not the answer.

The Chinese are into an industrial revolution, many factories in Thailand doing low cost product can not compete with them now.

It is sad to see Thailand with so many factors against them; the moving of the canons facing the grand palace was not the solution!

Sad to see vultures regarding with pleasure what will inevitable happen.

[Harmonica]

Harmonica, thanks.  There was a big rally yesterday and as of lunch time today its sitting on 690!  I have a couple of really good tips and if your willing to play you can pm me.

You're welcome, dude. Yeah I am well aware of that big rally and am also quite pleased that you are making money and doing well!

I'm staying out for now.

Dude, you naughty boy -- trying to get me to enter SET Index exactly @ a TOP! ..... see the red arrow in the chart below. Also note the red arrow in the lower window showing the big volume bars towards the right hand side of the chart -- all but one of those large bars are "downside" volume. Just something for you to take note of, not get discouraged, amigo. Battle lost, but you'll win the war.

Lucky for me, I declined your invitation, don't you think?

But, don't let this bother you -- your invitations are always welcome and so is your SET insight, right or wrong. We do our work and we call it -- if wrong, so what! At least we called it!

I hope you didn't get caught in the mini-crash?

But, again just to cheer you up, don't panic -- there is a wave C rally coming up in the near future, just as soon as this current downleg (wave ends.

So don't fret.

But next time try to pay attention to the Baht -- SET will not happily go against her distress calls. They are loving twins and I would not bet against them!

And now with today's further losses, SET has now given up ALL the gains of the previous rally.

And it gets even worse -- SET was down a whopping 15 points in trading today. Don't know whether she will climb back up and reduce her losses today or not.

The point however, is quite clear. Some would state that Crude Oil is doing the damage. It is quite possible that Crude is playing into the psyche of SET players, but SET's primary driver is the currency & the Baht is weakening. The correlation between Oil and SET is nowhere near as good an indicator as the Baht/SET combo.

When Dude pointed out that SET was going against the Baht, possibly indicating that their relationship is now different -- I believe that perhaps condo also mentioned something to this effect and that it is OK to climb back into the SET and buy!

But to me such an occurrence is a distinct red light, a warning signal to be on high alert for danger!

And DANGER has been with us for several days and has today poured on the coal!

Tomorrow is a new day however. Things could change. One day at a time for SET, then!

[kreon]

I'll leave it to you to desire. Keep up the good discussion.

What about the strange rumors around that the Thai Baht could rise to 100 to the dollar within 6 months. Just <deleted>, or?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

well it could happen, we just don't when, but it will be sooner rather than later.

last time it went from 25 to 60 if i remember correctly, the thai economy is getting weaker as the oil crises is making exports and cost of living more expensive, property market is starting to get overheated, corruption is rife, banks are over extended with bad loans, tourism is down, european and us economy's are going down the tube, all the fundamentals are there, especially more so as china is to start to devalue the yuan.

i predict another crash ala 1997 and then play will the set again, far too overpriced for my liking today.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Always pleased to see my buddy, kreon.

Baht reached a High of 56.50 and a Closing High of 55.5 on January 12th, 1998.

Good, solid points raised by kreon -- I'm expecting the same and agree that the next SET bottom will be OUR "gates of Paradise" for it will be the time to convert sidelined CASH into stocks and HOLD!

But, like I said before, one step at a time and we then have the ability to turn on a dime if something unforeseen occurs and proves we are likely wrong. A backup plan, so to speak.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

back-up plan, is what we do by using trailing stop loss orders at 25 points, ALWAYS!

never play by emotion, always cut your losses, even its only 25%

Edited July 7, 2005 by kreon

[chippendalesam]

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/currencie...currencies.html

For those who desire instant Thai Baht, Japanese Yen and other regional currency action,  check out the link above, courtesy of Bloomberg.  They say it gets updated every 15 mins., but I have found it to be much more frequent than that.  It is my homepage currently.

Maka's Universal Currency link is also outstanding and  gives instant, real-time currency quotes.  But the Bloomberg page gives you ALL the currencies at a glance @ reasonably close to real-time view.

And where is Miss Baht now?

41.717 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Shall the baht cross 42 today, July8,2005? YES, for the weekend play money.

[chippendalesam]

Harmonica, thanks.  There was a big rally yesterday and as of lunch time today its sitting on 690!  I have a couple of really good tips and if your willing to play you can pm me.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You're welcome, dude. Yeah I am well aware of that big rally and am also quite pleased that you are making money and doing well!

I'm staying out for now.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Dude, you naughty boy -- trying to get me to enter SET Index exactly @ a TOP! ..... see the red arrow in the chart below. Also note the red arrow in the lower window showing the big volume bars towards the right hand side of the chart -- all but one of those large bars are "downside" volume. Just something for you to take note of, not get discouraged, amigo. Battle lost, but you'll win the war.

Lucky for me, I declined your invitation, don't you think?

But, don't let this bother you -- your invitations are always welcome and so is your SET insight, right or wrong. We do our work and we call it -- if wrong, so what! At least we called it!

I hope you didn't get caught in the mini-crash?

But, again just to cheer you up, don't panic -- there is a wave C rally coming up in the near future, just as soon as this current downleg (wave ends.

So don't fret.

But next time try to pay attention to the Baht -- SET will not happily go against her distress calls. They are loving twins and I would not bet against them!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

And now with today's further losses, SET has now given up ALL the gains of the previous rally.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

And it gets even worse -- SET was down a whopping 15 points in trading today. Don't know whether she will climb back up and reduce her losses today or not.

The point however, is quite clear. Some would state that Crude Oil is doing the damage. It is quite possible that Crude is playing into the psyche of SET players, but SET's primary driver is the currency & the Baht is weakening. The correlation between Oil and SET is nowhere near as good an indicator as the Baht/SET combo.

When Dude pointed out that SET was going against the Baht, possibly indicating that their relationship is now different -- I believe that perhaps condo also mentioned something to this effect and that it is OK to climb back into the SET and buy!

But to me such an occurrence is a distinct red light, a warning signal to be on high alert for danger!

And DANGER has been with us for several days and has today poured on the coal!

Tomorrow is a new day however. Things could change. One day at a time for SET, then!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

SET closed at it LOW today July7,05-638.31. Will it go lower in the NEAR(1 or 2 weeks) future? YES! I will seriously look to go long around the 600 mark. Look at that downtrend line the last week or so!!!!! What do others thinlk??????

[Harmonica]

Thai Baht has kissed the 42 level already. Japanese Yen @ 112.34 after correcting yesterday to the 111 region. Foreigners were massive net sellers yesterday.

The London incident did not appear to have had any effect on the SET yesterday as the news came out very late.

Consequently I think it was just plain and simply the $ continuing to do his thing!

The distance from 38 to 50 Baht to the Dollar is only 12 miles -- the Baht/Dollar has covered 33.33% of that range thus far already. Wicked!

Question is: when is he (the Dollar, that is) going to dive lower to recoup, regroup, gather more fortification, sustenance, food, drink, rest & recreation before he goes for the next upward blast towards 50. He does need to catch up on some sleep, methinks.

But hey, I ain't complaining, amigo. You go as far as you want to go. I'll just watch in awe and amazement and cheer you on. But I'll also be waiting for your message that the time has come to retreat!

[george]

Thai baht weakest in 10 months

BANGKOK, July 8 (TNA) - The Thai currency depreciated to its weakest level in 10 months on Thursday due to hefty selling out by foreign investors.

The Thai baht closed at Bt41.68-41.71 a US dollar yesterday after opening at Bt41.58-41.62 in the morning, according to financial executives.

"The 10-month weakest record of the Thai currency was due to hefty selling out by foreign investors who feared that risk factors, including continuing oil price hikes, could affect Thailand's economic prospects and performances of listed firms on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET)", they pointed out.

However, the depreciation of the Thai baht was in line with other currencies in the region, including the Japanese yen, the commercial banks' executives disclosed.

"It is possible that the Thai currency could weaken to Bt42 a US dollar", they said.

--TNA 2005-07-08

[Harmonica]

At 11:00 AM Friday morning, July 8th, I am hereby

raising level of alertness to Defcon 4 -- 5 being the highest!

For what, you ask?

For SET to register a bottom and rocket out of the abyss with all cylinders firing on high octane fuel! I am NOT calling the bottom @ this moment but stating clearly that it is highly probable that we are in the vicinity of one! Hence the high alert status. Check ammunition and clean barrels before loading. Wipe sweat off trigger finger! Then just wait patiently !

Expected direction of trajectory ..... North!

Ultimate Target .... 680-720 zone! Can be narrowed after its set in motion, not now!

Caveats:

(1) Conservative players, novices -- i.e. 99.9% of SET players -- here are your instructions: Hide and Watch! You don't have to be the first one to get in! There's plenty to be had even if you get in a couple days late. Relax. Don't be greedy!

(2) Experienced players and m*otherf*ckers: You know what to do! Your STOP, judiciously placed, is your insurance! Don't you forget that!

As for me, I'm going swimming and then shopping for presents for my gal's birthday, which is tomorrow. I would love to stay and watch but a man's got to know who or what comes first -- right, amigos?

Adios!

[thedude]

Harmonica, sorry to have missed so many of your earlier messeges directed at me. As you recall, you were not sure why the SET was drifting away from the Baht when i mentioned it. You decided to stay away but i stayed on, however i restructured my holdings. The last time i wrote i was in the midst of exiting speculative positions on the SET with the exception of one very good tip, which you declined to take up. I am still in the red now even after having consolidated in time to certain favourite defensive stocks, but the damage is not bad and i'm not too concerned based on the ridiculous dividend yields at these price levels

As to the one very good tip i had for you, perhaps i should have clarified that it was not based on technicals nor fundamentals....it hardly lost any ground throughout this period except for yesterday, and its back up again today. Its resilience places it well for another rally which should see it gain another 20% at least.

I am very much encouraged by your latest prediction for a 680-720 run.

[Harmonica]

Harmonica, sorry to have missed so many of your earlier messeges directed at me.  As you recall, you were not sure why the SET was drifting away from the Baht when i mentioned it.  You decided to stay away but i stayed on, however i restructured my holdings.  The last time i wrote i was in the midst of exiting speculative positions on the SET with the exception of one very good tip, which you declined to take up.  I am still in the red now even after having consolidated in time to certain favourite defensive stocks, but the damage is not bad and i'm not too concerned based on the ridiculous dividend yields at these price levels

As to the one very good tip i had for you, perhaps i should have clarified that it was not based on technicals nor fundamentals....it hardly lost any ground throughout this period except for yesterday, and its back up again today.  Its resilience places it well for another rally which should see it gain another 20% at least. 

I am very much encouraged by your latest prediction for a 680-720 run.

Firstly I am pleased to hear that your losses, if any, were limited and that your key stock held its ground. That is indeed good news. I was worried about you there for a while because SET gave up considerable ground.

Secondly, my apologies if I didn't seem enthusiastic to hear your stock tip -- its just that I was not ready to buy or enter the market. That is the sole reason. Nothing personal, I can assure you.

Thirdly, you are absolutely correct in recalling that I had mentioned I didn't know why the SET and Baht drifted apart. Frankly I still don't know the reason. But sooner or later it will come to me. My main point was that when such a disparity occurs, it can rarely be a good sign; mostly it reflects some form of rupture. More on this when I've got concrete explanations!

Have a good weekend!

[george]

Posted in the News Clippings forum, but post it here as well FYI:

Set index likely to recover in 1-2 weeks

BANGKOK: -- The Stock Exchange of Thailand’s index is expected to recover and become more stable in the next 1-2 weeks following a plunge by more than 21 points in yesterday’s trading due to mounting investor concern on many negative factors engulfing the market, according to a top securities analyst.

Kongkiat Opaswongkarn, President of the Securities Analysts’ Association, attributed the plunge in the SET index to the investor concern on rising oil prices, accounting fraud of Picnic Corporation Plc, and high speculations on some small stocks.

As well, some investors were also forced to cut loss by selling some stocks by brokerage houses and other dumped shares to hold cash to reduce risks

He viewed the continued sale of shares by foreign investors are just a short-term adjustment to their investment portfolios so that they could transfer some cash to invest in the secondary market.

He believed most foreign investors still maintained an overweight investment outlook for the Thai bourse because they remained confident of the country’s economy. However, they had begun to slow investment since they had already invested a lot.

“The investment sentiment in the stock market is expected to improve in the next 1-2 weeks when the dust settles. Now, many negative factors engulfing the market such as forced sale by some brokers and high speculations on some small stocks have begun to ease,” he said.

Dr. Kongkiat conceded brokerage houses had revised downward performances of listed companies, except those in the energy sector, in the second quarter of this year since they experienced higher costs upon rising fuel prices.

However, most companies remained in a position to pay dividend at a higher rate than interest rates offered by commercial banks, he said.

--TNA 2005-07-08

[chippendalesam]

Harmonica, sorry to have missed so many of your earlier messeges directed at me.  As you recall, you were not sure why the SET was drifting away from the Baht when i mentioned it.  You decided to stay away but i stayed on, however i restructured my holdings.  The last time i wrote i was in the midst of exiting speculative positions on the SET with the exception of one very good tip, which you declined to take up.  I am still in the red now even after having consolidated in time to certain favourite defensive stocks, but the damage is not bad and i'm not too concerned based on the ridiculous dividend yields at these price levels

As to the one very good tip i had for you, perhaps i should have clarified that it was not based on technicals nor fundamentals....it hardly lost any ground throughout this period except for yesterday, and its back up again today.  Its resilience places it well for another rally which should see it gain another 20% at least. 

I am very much encouraged by your latest prediction for a 680-720 run.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Firstly I am pleased to hear that your losses, if any, were limited and that your key stock held its ground. That is indeed good news. I was worried about you there for a while because SET gave up considerable ground.

Secondly, my apologies if I didn't seem enthusiastic to hear your stock tip -- its just that I was not ready to buy or enter the market. That is the sole reason. Nothing personal, I can assure you.

Thirdly, you are absolutely correct in recalling that I had mentioned I didn't know why the SET and Baht drifted apart. Frankly I still don't know the reason. But sooner or later it will come to me. My main point was that when such a disparity occurs, it can rarely be a good sign; mostly it reflects some form of rupture. More on this when I've got concrete explanations!

Have a good weekend!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

" holy shit Batman" the baht closed at 42.40- US dollar today! Even I didn't think it(the baht) would close that weak. Very good for those in Thailand with the US dollar, a little more fun than usual this week-end for them in the "land of smiles". Sam out.

[Harmonica]

At 11:00 AM Friday morning, July 8th, I am hereby

raising level of alertness to Defcon 4 -- 5 being the highest!

For what, you ask?

For SET to register a bottom and rocket out of the abyss with all cylinders firing on high octane fuel!  I am NOT calling the bottom @ this moment but stating clearly that it is highly probable that we are in the vicinity of one!  Hence the high alert status. Check ammunition and clean barrels before loading.  Wipe  sweat off trigger finger!  Then just wait patiently !

Expected direction of trajectory .....  North! 

Ultimate Target ....  680-720 zone!  Can be narrowed after its set in motion, not now!

Caveats:

(1) Conservative players, novices -- i.e. 99.9% of SET players -- here are your instructions:  Hide and Watch!  You don't have to be the first one to get in!  There's plenty to be had even if you get in a couple days late.  Relax.  Don't be greedy! 

(2) Experienced players and m*otherf*ckers:  You know what to do!  Your STOP, judiciously placed, is your insurance!  Don't you forget that!

As for me,  I'm going swimming and then shopping for presents for my gal's birthday, which is tomorrow.  I would love to stay and watch but a man's got to know who or what comes first -- right, amigos?

Adios!   

Fellas I'm writing this in haste before the 4:30 PM market buzzer sounds for the Stock Exchange of Thailand. If you read this in time kindly make your own decision. See reason/action below.

I have closed all my positions and taken profit for the rally thus far .

I repeat: ALL positions closed today !

Reason: Dangerous crossroad. Could be wrong with my assessment, but the price of folly @ this current juncture could be deadly.

The rally, as I have called it in the quote above is therefore on HOLD as far as my call is concerned. Wait and see and/or postponed!

I prefer to sideline myself and observe the action one day at a time to see how dangerous the tiger-in-the-backdoor really is.

Best of luck!

[Harmonica]

There was a vibration today! It was deep, and local Thais thought there was more trouble from the southerners. But actually it was only the Yen crossing 112.60.

And then out of the corner of my eye I saw the Thai Baht whack 41.99 -- not a single Thai saw that!

[Harmonica]

There was a vibration today!  It was deep,  and local Thais thought there was more trouble from the southerners.  But actually it was only the Yen crossing 112.60.

And then out of the corner of my eye I saw the Thai Baht whack 41.99 -- not a single Thai saw that!

Yen just shy of 113 -- so close that he can wink @ that level.

Baht reciprocating by moving up past the 42 resistance into golden territory.

I like it -- got to pay some bills tomorrow -- more golden Dollars will be changed to Baht. Yeah, I like it!

[ray23]

There was a vibration today!  It was deep,  and local Thais thought there was more trouble from the southerners.  But actually it was only the Yen crossing 112.60.

And then out of the corner of my eye I saw the Thai Baht whack 41.99 -- not a single Thai saw that!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yen just shy of 113 -- so close that he can wink @ that level.

Baht reciprocating by moving up past the 42 resistance into golden territory.

I like it -- got to pay some bills tomorrow -- more golden Dollars will be changed to Baht. Yeah, I like it!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Whats the best guess on where the baht is heading?

[dr_Pat_Pong]

ummmmmmmm down ?

[Jeff1]

ummmmmmmm  down ?

Thats what I like about you Doc .

[dr_Pat_Pong]

Someone has to like me Jeff

[Harmonica]

This is not the way a husband should treat his wife. I don't like it!

What am I talking about?

Japanese Yen is making Miss Thai Baht go cuckoo and loco!

Yesterday he took out 113+ and today he's dived back below it to around 112.60.

This has caused his wife to drop down into the 41.9 region after reaching well over 42.10 yesterday.

I'm going to have to call Social Services and file a complaint against this menace!

[Harmonica]

This is not the way a husband should treat his wife.  I don't like it!   

What am I talking about?

Japanese Yen is making Miss Thai Baht go cuckoo and loco!

Yesterday he took out 113+ and today he's dived back below it to around 112.60.

This has caused his wife to drop down into the 41.9 region after reaching well over 42.10 yesterday.

I'm going to have to call Social Services and file a complaint against this menace!

With all this commotion in the exchange rate going on, SET Index might just take this opportunity to add on a few points.

But I don't want to play -- the tiger is still in the back room!

[Harmonica]

There was a vibration today!  It was deep,  and local Thais thought there was more trouble from the southerners.  But actually it was only the Yen crossing 112.60.

And then out of the corner of my eye I saw the Thai Baht whack 41.99 -- not a single Thai saw that!

Yen just shy of 113 -- so close that he can wink @ that level.

Baht reciprocating by moving up past the 42 resistance into golden territory.

I like it -- got to pay some bills tomorrow -- more golden Dollars will be changed to Baht. Yeah, I like it!

Whats the best guess on where the baht is heading?

Ray, she started out from Haad Yai railway station and she has an open ticket to Chiang Mai.

She winked at me when I was in Phuket as her train sped past toward Surat Thani a few weeks ago.

She is currently in nomansland on the stretch between Chumphon and BKK.

No communication at this time.

What we have to watch for is when she might disembark and reverse course to visit the Nature Resort just outside Chumphon. This will be backtracking -- but there is a possibility that the British Pound might try to steal her away from the $. Misery loves company, therefore such nefarious activities have a high likelihood of occurring.

It is not likely that she will confide in me -- but the $, my buddy, certainly will!

I am waiting for his telephone call!

[ray23]

There was a vibration today!  It was deep,  and local Thais thought there was more trouble from the southerners.  But actually it was only the Yen crossing 112.60.

And then out of the corner of my eye I saw the Thai Baht whack 41.99 -- not a single Thai saw that!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yen just shy of 113 -- so close that he can wink @ that level.

Baht reciprocating by moving up past the 42 resistance into golden territory.

I like it -- got to pay some bills tomorrow -- more golden Dollars will be changed to Baht. Yeah, I like it!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Whats the best guess on where the baht is heading?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Ray, she started out from Haad Yai railway station and she has an open ticket to Chiang Mai.

She winked at me when I was in Phuket as her train sped past toward Surat Thani a few weeks ago.

She is currently in nomansland on the stretch between Chumphon and BKK.

No communication at this time.

What we have to watch for is when she might disembark and reverse course to visit the Nature Resort just outside Chumphon. This will be backtracking -- but there is a possibility that the British Pound might try to steal her away from the $. Misery loves company, therefore such nefarious activities have a high likelihood of occurring.

It is not likely that she will confide in me -- but the $, my buddy, certainly will!

I am waiting for his telephone call!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

OK I asked for that just wanted to follow the thread and had nothing to add. LAUGHTER

But I am curious about one thing why is this so different then the past few years during the non tuorist season, seem to happen each year and then change as the tourist come back?

[Harmonica]

There was a vibration today!  It was deep,  and local Thais thought there was more trouble from the southerners.  But actually it was only the Yen crossing 112.60.

And then out of the corner of my eye I saw the Thai Baht whack 41.99 -- not a single Thai saw that!

Yen just shy of 113 -- so close that he can wink @ that level.

Baht reciprocating by moving up past the 42 resistance into golden territory.

I like it -- got to pay some bills tomorrow -- more golden Dollars will be changed to Baht. Yeah, I like it!

Whats the best guess on where the baht is heading?

Ray, she started out from Haad Yai railway station and she has an open ticket to Chiang Mai.

She winked at me when I was in Phuket as her train sped past toward Surat Thani a few weeks ago.

She is currently in nomansland on the stretch between Chumphon and BKK.

No communication at this time.

What we have to watch for is when she might disembark and reverse course to visit the Nature Resort just outside Chumphon. This will be backtracking -- but there is a possibility that the British Pound might try to steal her away from the $. Misery loves company, therefore such nefarious activities have a high likelihood of occurring.

It is not likely that she will confide in me -- but the $, my buddy, certainly will!

I am waiting for his telephone call!

OK I asked for that just wanted to follow the thread and had nothing to add. LAUGHTER

But I am curious about one thing why is this so different then the past few years during the non tuorist season, seem to happen each year and then change as the tourist come back?

You're right, Ray -- Baht is weakening during pretty much the same period each year.

But now that you're the 2nd fella in Thailand to have spotted this, welcome to the club.

But will this continue or will the pattern break this year? I'm watching, but really don't have an answer just yet. The tsunami has certainly done its damage sentimentwise and my recent visit to Phuket confirms that something is deeply amiss. But do I understand all of the implications? ..... I am not related to Moses!

One month at a time, Ray!

By the way, if you ever get down to Phuket, go check out the Mexican restaurant, Los Amigos in Nai Harn. You will be astonished by the simplicity of the idea and the quality of the food! The salsa is also outstanding! Quesadillas? Even el magnifico himself couldn't do better!

[ray23]

There was a vibration today!  It was deep,  and local Thais thought there was more trouble from the southerners.  But actually it was only the Yen crossing 112.60.

And then out of the corner of my eye I saw the Thai Baht whack 41.99 -- not a single Thai saw that!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yen just shy of 113 -- so close that he can wink @ that level.

Baht reciprocating by moving up past the 42 resistance into golden territory.

I like it -- got to pay some bills tomorrow -- more golden Dollars will be changed to Baht. Yeah, I like it!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Whats the best guess on where the baht is heading?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Ray, she started out from Haad Yai railway station and she has an open ticket to Chiang Mai.

She winked at me when I was in Phuket as her train sped past toward Surat Thani a few weeks ago.

She is currently in nomansland on the stretch between Chumphon and BKK.

No communication at this time.

What we have to watch for is when she might disembark and reverse course to visit the Nature Resort just outside Chumphon. This will be backtracking -- but there is a possibility that the British Pound might try to steal her away from the $. Misery loves company, therefore such nefarious activities have a high likelihood of occurring.

It is not likely that she will confide in me -- but the $, my buddy, certainly will!

I am waiting for his telephone call!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

OK I asked for that just wanted to follow the thread and had nothing to add. LAUGHTER

But I am curious about one thing why is this so different then the past few years during the non tuorist season, seem to happen each year and then change as the tourist come back?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You're right, Ray -- Baht is weakening during pretty much the same period each year.

But now that you're the 2nd fella in Thailand to have spotted this, welcome to the club.

But will this continue or will the pattern break this year? I'm watching, but really don't have an answer just yet. The tsunami has certainly done its damage sentimentwise and my recent visit to Phuket confirms that something is deeply amiss. But do I understand all of the implications? ..... I am not related to Moses!

One month at a time, Ray!

By the way, if you ever get down to Phuket, go check out the Mexican restaurant, Los Amigos in Nai Harn. You will be astonished by the simplicity of the idea and the quality of the food! The salsa is also outstanding! Quesadillas? Even el magnifico himself couldn't do better!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yes I tried it, it wouldn't be hard to duplicate, but the truth is I'm just Kikeack (Lazy) A fellow American is opening a Mexican resturant in Udon tomoorow and I'm hoping for the best.

Right now I'm really trying to be patient about buying land or any big tickets items to see what happens wiht the economy. If it doesn't go the norm I think cash will be a great thing to have in the future here and you just might get more bang for your buck. The asking prices I see around Udon today is more then you would pay for farm land in California. There seem to be enough newbies in the area to day that some of it is selling.

[thedude]

Harmy, its happened again. Massive net foreign buying propping up the SET today while the Baht continued to slide.....wh wh whats happening!

[Erwin1011]

There seems to be a cycle in the THB. Each around this time in the year (give and take a month or so) the THB weakens against the USD. Stocks become then more attractive to foreign buyers. around Oct Nov the cycle swings and the freign investors cash in double : more $ for the THB and a SET on a high.

[pnustedt]

I'm no expert but when the Baht was at this level in the late '90s I was advised that the SET was undervalued and a good buy, so I bought Thai Mutual Funds - at that time the SET was at around 300-400.

I stopped buying when the SET reached 700, and have been quite happy with the investment. I'm thinking whether to start buying Thai funds again - now that the Yuan has been revalued Thailand is looking like a better value exporter which should benefit many Thai companys.

Edited July 29, 2005 by pnustedt

[Harmonica]

Harmy, its happened again.  Massive net foreign buying propping up the SET today while the Baht continued to slide.....wh wh whats happening!    

I am still out, my friend and will continue to stay out!

I don't have any Baht left anyway.

But here's my take, IMHO that is:

Refer to the chart below .. top panel is the SET and bottom panel is the Baht. Focus on the action to the right of the vertical dashed line. This line is July 8. Observe that Baht has been lazily strengthening since July 8? And therefore SET is rallying with Foreigners supporting her nicely. Tech. Analysis 101 in it's native glory, amigo!

Baht is nicely following both Yen and the US Dollar Index -- USD started a correction on July 8 . This weakness in the $ is allowing Baht to flaunt her goodies.

Why am I not excited?

Because even though Baht might strengthen to 41.2 to 41.35 again, thereby encouraging SET to rally some more -- the TIGER is still in the backroom -- who/what is he?

He is a wave 5 blast out of the morass and confusion of the current wave 4 (since July 8). When this occurs and it can occur anytime, Baht will fly past 42 like a bullet train & SET will plunge taking hundreds of thousands of traders into the abyss, where most of these folk generally reside anyways -- free transportation for them back home!

SET is always interesting, never boring and I do love her so -- but when she is not smiling easily, I don't ask her out on a date!

Goodluck to you and the rest of the players still in!

[Butterfly]

Thanks H for the nice chart. Very informative