Pad Leader Sondhi Limthongkul Shot

[Plus]

Occam's razor, people, Occam's razor.

Red paramilitaries feel pissed off that their rebelion was crashed while Sondhi walked away without any serious charges. They decided to take justice in their own hands and shoot the bastard.

>>>

Sae Daeng comment printed in the Nation was interesting - it must the government's work because the assassings used a pickup truck - it's difficult to navigate in traffic and you need government cover to escape safely.

Motorcycles are less conspicuous, of course, unless you carry machine guns and grenade launchers. Also at 5AM traffic is pretty thin and there's no police to mount any serious chase.

[Insight]

Lots of eggsperts in TV as usual.

1. Not too long before Thaksin got removed, he armed his thugs from the forestry department with M16 rifles and set a plan in place for them to visit some PAD rallies - how fast you all forget. Like most countries in the world it's pretty darned easy to acquire an "illegal" firearm here just like other illegal things, all it takes is a little money.

2. Obviously different weapons were utilized here and the shooters were again obviously not professional - the vehicle was sprayed and the occupants were not individually targeted from the pictures posted in the various outlets. Most likely they were highly excited, nervous, scared and full of themselves, and as noted failed to get the job done - thankfully - this act is not the answer.

3. 5.56 and 7.62 rounds will shred the snot out of an unarmored vehicle at close range - basic physics people. Maybe you should watch Myth Busters?

4. There has been numerous cases documented where an individual has taken some type of projectile (bullet, nails, arrows, etc..) to the head and has demonstrated normal competence and faculty control.

5. The struggle here is fairly old and lame, its the old money versus the new money. On a deeper more historical level it's Chang Mai versus Bangkok. And unfortuanately its the poor who are stuck in the middle and getting the short end of the stick.

These activities and events sadden me. I love Thailand and its culture, these people only care about themselves and evenless about this wonderful land and its warm and caring people. Unfortunately it will take a long time to get rid of the old mind set of the power players and the tradition of patronage.

Thanks for that perspective - it's the first time I've seen it spelt out. Wondering if anybody else agrees?

[webfact]

Sondhi recovering well following lucky escape

By The Nation

Published on April 18, 2009

After surviving an assassination attempt, People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) founder Sondhi Limthongkul is now receiving medical treatment at Chulalongkorn Hospital.

"He's in safe condition and fully conscious," hospital deputy director Dr Dhiraphongs Charoenvidhya said at a press conference yesterday evening.

Dhiraphongs said Sondhi would remain under medical supervision over the next 24 hours. If his condition did not worsen during this period, he looked set to recover satisfactorily.

Earlier in the day, Sondhi sustained a wound in his right temple when heavily armed gunmen opened fire on his vehicle at dawn.

The incident took place while Sondhi was heading to his ASTV office in the heart of Bangkok.

His aide Wayuphak Mangkalasin and his driver Adul Daengpradab were also injured.

Sondhi and his aide were rushed to Vajira Hospital.

A medical team there successfully performed an operation to remove several tiny metal pieces from Sondhi's skull.

"We believe the tiny metal pieces are from a bullet. They pierced his right temple and the outer part of his skull," hospital director Dr Chaiwan Charoenchoktawee said. "They also pressed the inner part of the skull against brain membrane".

Following the operation, Chaiwan announced that no membrane had been removed and Sondhi's brain had received no permanent damage

Sondhi left Vajira Hospital at 3.30pm.

His aide and his driver were transferred to Chulalongkorn Hospital as well.

"They are transferred here at the request of their relatives," Dhiraphongs said.

Wayuphak was referred from Vajira Hospital, while Adul was referred from Mission Hospital.

Dhiraphongs said Wayuphak had no fatal injuries, although he had many bullet wounds in his upper arm.

The driver, Adul, was the most seriously injured.

"He's in the intensive care unit but he's conscious," Dhiraphongs said.

Adul, 27, had surgery on his brain, chest and right arm at Mission Hospital earlier in the day.

Dr Harpreet Singh Grover, who works at Mission Hospital, said the operation took four to five hours.

"The most serious injury is around his upper occiput. A part of his brain was damaged," the doctor said.

When Sondhi was at Vajira Hospital, a number of high-profile figures showed up to offer him moral support. They included his TV co-host Sarocha Porn-udomsak, actor-turned PAD co-leader Saranyu Wongkrachang and Thai Journalist Association representative Wassayos Ngamkham.

- THE NATION -

[samgrowth]

My Nana gf say "Som Nam Na". I wonder what that mean?

[catmac]

The rumour going around among Thais I know is that it's Suthep Tueksuban the deputy prime minister behind the attempted hit. Sondi 'outed' him as the power behind Abhisit. Sondi calls Abhisit the puppet of Suthep.

No suprise. Suthep and Newin were humiliated in Pattaya and both of them are unfit to be leading lights in a democratic political party. In politics you are just as likely to be bumped off by people supposedly on the same side as you. Stalin/Trotsky, Castro/Che, etc., etc. Even Gandhi was killed not by a Muslim extremist fighting to divide India, but by a fellow Hindu.

Both reds and yellows have their violent minority, and both have killed opponents, but they did that in the heat of battle, so to speak. Neither side has engaged in this kind of cold-blooded assassination, nor is there any credible evidence that the reds possess the kind of weaponry used here, but there sure are those behind the scenes in the ruling elite who would dearly love to see Sondhi eliminated. After all, they financed and facilitated PAD's activities to remove Thaksin, not to criticise the Dems and name the powers behind the coup. Time to dispose of him.

[Indra]

And all the American's votes were really counted in 2000 and the guy who got the most popular votes became President !!! You Americans can be so holier that thou ! You think that only your system of government works, even when it doesn't.

As to violent demonstrations you seem to completely forget the Vietnam war protest and demonstrations, the 1968 Democratic National Convention, the murder of students at Kent State by the National Guard and so much more in your history even the more recent release by the Obama administration (yesterday) of documents from the Bush administration authorizing torture by the CIA

So you think this is all about Thaksin? Whatever. Southeast asia, right or wrong, when the "peasants" get upset things happen, the ruling party gets hurt -- remember laos, cambodia, vietnam? If people don't understand this, have fun for the next few years. "Som na mun.." is this the correct saying?

Well, I can agree and disagree at the same time.

Leaders in Southeast Asia cannot accept their lost, they must win at any cost; When they lost, they don't like the winner.

Meanwhile, the peasants just want to have a lighter burden (economic) than what they are having now, and leader who can prove that he/she can ease the burden, will have closest place to their heart. And the peasants will do anything to support the leader, not for the sake of the leader but merely for their own life and their gratitude.

[Insight]

If some of you would stop believing the media bias and start using your own Brain's, you might get closer to the truth. Sondhi has been public enemy no 1 since he went on his crusade to topple the Previous Government and ultimately divide the country. When the Government fell, Sondhi walked to freedom and his new (promised?) media group. Check out his history and close links to Taksin in the past.

Mr Sonthi recently criticized this government and specific individuals for being cowardly and not owning up to their full role in the coup. Sonthi knows a lot of secrets about what really happened and was getting agitated about his recent treatment (broken promises??).

Who has more to gain about killing him? The red shirts who know it would lead to more clashes, bloodshed and harsher measures on them including retaliation, or somebody in government who knows the damage he can do and wants him shut up for good, and at the same time damage the Reds even more????

If the Reds had really wanted Sonthi dead, they would surely have done it a long time ago. The Reds fought the Army and Police (who were fully armed) with sticks, stones and lipo bottles filled with petrol. Does it sound like this bunch who followed their target, pulled in front of the vehicle and shot the tyres out and then got out of the pick up and opened fire with automatic weapons? Not very amateur sounding to me. Unfortunately for his aide and driver, most of the assault was from the front of the vehicle which also probably saved Sondhi's life as he was in the back. Rag tag madmen who want revenge blood do not operate like that. This was a finely planned execution that was thankfully unsuccessful.

As a foreigner living in Thailand i do not support Red or Yellow or any other color. Ive lived in violent countries all my life and i just want peace and stability. We will never know the facts behind all accusations, but we can read between the lines and figure it out for ourselves if we remain un biased. The Bangkok Post and Nation newspapers are shockingly biased and only serve to create divisions. Look for yourselves.

Common sense at last!

I'm afraid that using their brains is too much to ask of some who would blame Thaksin for every evil under the sun. Their sheer hatred of one man makes them unable to see reason, or read between the lines.

There are so many factions who would dearly like to see Sondhi out of the way, my betting is on those behind the coup who are scared of Sondhi spilling the beans and naming names. He has recently become very critical of this Government and its failings. Thaksin has started the ball rolling. Could a certain Privy Council member not be suspected?

Then the Government now has a glorious excuse to prolong the SOE for as long as it likes, how convenient.

But let's not think, just jerk our knees and blame Thaksin personally, so much easier for small minds to accomodate.

Nice try.

If it was anybody from his "own side" (PAD, Dems, Military etc), surely it would of been so much more convenient for it to happen over the weekend? Leave a few red shirts on the scene and say he got ambushed.

Instead it's happened a few days later after the red shirt/Thaksin side faced numerous repercussions of a failed "revolution" attempt.

An expression about wood and trees comes to mind. And if you're going to accuse people of having small minds perhaps you should spell "accommodate" correctly.

[klikster]

Re: the M79 grenade...can anyone explain what they mean by the firing range being to close?

That round arms at a certain distance from the weapon .. protection for the shooter. I'm sure they have changed a bit, but back eons ago, a stalk of elephant grass was enough for a burst.

[cat5]

Not entirely unexpected, really. After all, the yellow shirts are an unelected group who got into government against the will of the majority by using thug tactics themselves. With such a huge insult against democracy, it's not surprising this shooting happened. I expect there will be several more before the matter is finally resolved. It's just a shame they (the yellow shirts) can't take the one fair way out of this: CALL A NEW ELECTION!

[Indra]

This is just my theory, based on my imagination:

The shooting is intended to kill Sondhi by a group of people. The group has use Sondhi to the dirty job, and has promise him that they will reward him with .... you name it, could be be wealth, own TV station, power, even the PM chair?

However, now Sondhi is demanding payment, which the group have to intiontion to pay in the first place. Sondhi treaten to disclose the deal, so the small group will have to hire someone (possible with previous military trainning) to silent him.

As for the identity of the small group, I don't think it is UDD/UAAD/Thaksin/RED as the situation is too hot on them now. This group is using the opportunity to lay blame to Thaksin.

Sounds like a movie's synopsis to me.

Let's have it further, the ammos are from three assault riffles, and all guys have the same chance to shower it, but why ammos from M16 are only 3?

Is it possible that somebody simply spread it without actually shot it at the scene? Perhaps to add some more dramatic effect? Or simply because doesn't know the difference among ammo?

[animatic]

This Thai news report shows (at the 44 second mark) a picture of Sonthi walking around after being shot and shows his various injuries while in hospital.

Wow. Walking to the hospital entrance from his car, with a bullet in his head? I'm not so sure this wasn't planned anymore.

And his doctor seems to be laughing while his patient supposedly has a bullet in his head.

They were happy AFTER the operation and he survived.

[toybits]

It could have been a dud.

Have you seen the movie, "Hunt for the Red October (or April in Thailand)". The russian sub fire a topedo, Sean order the Red October to head directly toward the topedo and strike it head on. The todepo did not go off, because it impact the Red October sooner/nearer than the topedo was programed to hit (safety distance). When the russian sub fire a second time, he make sure that the safety feature was removed. This caused the topedo to go off, even thouse it hit it's own (the russian) sub.

[animatic]

If we just take Taksin out of the equation for 5 minutes, what is the real reason why thousands of people turn up in red shirts. Its not to help T get his money back and they certainly are not facing bullets for 500 baht a day. Its bcos they have spent many generations being shat on by the ruling classes and sensed an opputunity to vent their feelings.

For the genuine people in red, not the agitators, we should stand and applaud them for at last finding the balls to do something about their dire life of poverty. The little sideshows of T and Sondhi are clouding the picture. I am not in agreement with any violence and if the the reds take to the streets again and protest with no trouble I would personally applaud every last one of them. How many people making comments about the evil reds could survive on 1000 baht a month. They just want to share in the countrys wealth.

The army cannot protect the elite for ever and if T (new money)succeeds and sets foot back on home soil you will not be able to get a seat on any plane flying to China, Singapore and Hong Kong. Now that sight would make great tv. All the big boys stabbing each other in the back to get the last seat

One of the best posts that I have read on the situation so far!!

It might be except it's fantasy. Thaksin cannot be rehabilitated at this point. The question now is, who is he going to try to take down with him.

Take Thaksin down.. Whatever.. if Thaksin were to be killed tomorrow, the majority of people will still feel disenfranchised. What they need is a new election. This time follow through with democracy. Everyone must respect the vote. I live in the United States of American. It is how its done here. Even though there are people who do not like Obama, people feel like their vote counted and people aren't so unset as to start a civil war. Gaming the system so that your party always wins -- we'll there's a saying in the USA, "don't tread on me"... Trust me, if people's votes didn't count in the USA, there will be blood here too. But lucky for Americans, our votes count :-)

Except in 2000...

Many people do not believe their vote was properly used and counted in Bush 1

The supreme court should NOT have intervened as it did.

Bush's crew gamed the system big time. And we will pay the price for decades.

I am registered republican too.... to vote against that party's idiot fringe.

Second, I do know people today that are still wound up about a 'CNN coup of the USA' in the last election.

They just can't get their head around Obama being president. They don't believe their vote was counted.

The feel 100% disenfranchised. They are also ideologically foolish, but they can't see that.

There periodically IS blood in the streets in America

because of this EXACT sense of group disenfranchisement.

Or don't you read the papers?

[Indra]

Just an update for the doubters about bullet wounds to the head & the ability to walk around.....

From The Age newspaper.....

Woman has cuppa after being shot in the head

April 18, 2009 - 10:47AM

A woman who was shot in the head not only survived but made herself tea and offered an astonished deputy something to drink.

Authorities said on Friday that Tammy Sexton, 47, remained hospitalised three days after being wounded by her husband, who killed himself after he shot her.

A bullet struck her squarely in the forehead, passed through her skull and exited through the back of her head. She is expected to fully recover........

Full story here http://www.theage.com.au/world/woman-has-c...90418-aaj9.html

An ironic joke from Indonesia: In that case, you have to shoot the knee in order to kill that kind of person.

A common insult in Indonesia: Do you have your brain in your knee?

[humfurry]

And all the American's votes were really counted in 2000 and the guy who got the most popular votes became President !!! You Americans can be so holier that thou ! You think that only your system of government works, even when it doesn't.

As to violent demonstrations you seem to completely forget the Vietnam war protest and demonstrations, the 1968 Democratic National Convention, the murder of students at Kent State by the National Guard and so much more in your history even the more recent release by the Obama administration (yesterday) of documents from the Bush administration authorizing torture by the CIA

So you think this is all about Thaksin? Whatever. Southeast asia, right or wrong, when the "peasants" get upset things happen, the ruling party gets hurt -- remember laos, cambodia, vietnam? If people don't understand this, have fun for the next few years. "Som na mun.." is this the correct saying?

Well, I can agree and disagree at the same time.

Leaders in Southeast Asia cannot accept their lost, they must win at any cost; When they lost, they don't like the winner.

Meanwhile, the peasants just want to have a lighter burden (economic) than what they are having now, and leader who can prove that he/she can ease the burden, will have closest place to their heart. And the peasants will do anything to support the leader, not for the sake of the leader but merely for their own life and their gratitude.

I suppose what bothers me the most about the Red's message was the lack of a message, same with the Yellows.

I didn't hear cries for social, educational, police anti-corruption, judicial or political reforms...all I heard was "Get the other guys out of office".

It's maybe due to the fact that I'm not fluent in Thai...and am still learning the culture. Did anyone else get this impression?

Edited April 18, 2009 by humfurry

[lannarebirth]

If we just take Taksin out of the equation for 5 minutes, what is the real reason why thousands of people turn up in red shirts. Its not to help T get his money back and they certainly are not facing bullets for 500 baht a day. Its bcos they have spent many generations being shat on by the ruling classes and sensed an opputunity to vent their feelings.

For the genuine people in red, not the agitators, we should stand and applaud them for at last finding the balls to do something about their dire life of poverty. The little sideshows of T and Sondhi are clouding the picture. I am not in agreement with any violence and if the the reds take to the streets again and protest with no trouble I would personally applaud every last one of them. How many people making comments about the evil reds could survive on 1000 baht a month. They just want to share in the countrys wealth.

The army cannot protect the elite for ever and if T (new money)succeeds and sets foot back on home soil you will not be able to get a seat on any plane flying to China, Singapore and Hong Kong. Now that sight would make great tv. All the big boys stabbing each other in the back to get the last seat

One of the best posts that I have read on the situation so far!!

It might be except it's fantasy. Thaksin cannot be rehabilitated at this point. The question now is, who is he going to try to take down with him.

Take Thaksin down.. Whatever.. if Thaksin were to be killed tomorrow, the majority of people will still feel disenfranchised. What they need is a new election. This time follow through with democracy. Everyone must respect the vote. I live in the United States of American. It is how its done here. Even though there are people who do not like Obama, people feel like their vote counted and people aren't so unset as to start a civil war. Gaming the system so that your party always wins -- we'll there's a saying in the USA, "don't tread on me"... Trust me, if people's votes didn't count in the USA, there will be blood here too. But lucky for Americans, our votes count :-)

You people calling for new elections all the time need to understand one thing. There is no democracy without the rule of law. It's an illusion that creates the same outcome over and over no matter who wins. Just like you can't build a house that will remain standing without a foundation, you cannot hope to have free and fair elections till people trust that the law enforcement and judicial systems are somewhat fair.

[webfact]

I didn't hear cries for social, educational, police anti-corruption, judicial or political reforms...all I heard was "Get the other guys out of office".

It's maybe due to the fact that I'm not fluent in Thai...and am still learning the culture. Did anyone else get this impression?

humfurry, the system did not allow me to respond with reply. So I need to do it this way.

You are (almost) right with your impression. Sad but true 95% is "Get the other guys out..."

I agree with you

Edited April 18, 2009 by webfact

[lannarebirth]

Very easy to jump on the 'blame it on Thaksin' bandwagon but there are many competing interests that have very strong motivation.

Here is a brief & by no way extensive list of possible suspects & their possible motives greatly simplified.

Thaksin + Red shirt faction 1 - motive well known, create further instability to enable his return & all it involves.

Red shirt faction 2 - 'mainstream'supporters ex TRT, the banned etc. previous/apparent public supporters of Thaksin. Willing to piggyback on Thaksin as a route to power but disposable once they have achieved their aims. Thaksin now seems to be 'yesterday's man', so motive is to focus blame on Thaksin & ultimately remove him from the picture before the next stage.

Red shirt faction 3 - left wing, ex CPT types - currently in a marriage of convenience with 'mainstream' Red shirts. Motive is to cause increased instability allowing them to fill the vacuum left by a completely marginalized Thaksin & mainstream Reds.

Red shirt faction 4 - small group of 'hotheads' smarting from recent humiliations taking matters into their own hands.

Military /Pr. Cl. etc. - remove a critic. Could be seen as the loose cannon on the deck of the good ship PAD. Not only do they remove an undesirable but the resulting mayhem would enable them to consolidate their position of power by the means they know best.

Democrats/Abhisit - motive would be same as above but think not likely involved as they are essentially 'out of the loop' & most likely irrelevant to the true behind the scenes power play. Indivdual members may be involved but as part of military/Pr. Cl grouping.

Newin faction - motive to marginalize Thaksin, destabilize & consolidate his position in NW & wherever he can whore his influence.

Business rival - ideal time to bump him off. Blame gets deflected elsewhere.

Any combination of the above.

I think the failure of the assination will make little difference to the outcome if instigated by a Red shirt faction, but for the others it may prove problematical.

The point to note is that in all scenarios Thaksin seems to be the loser (as well as the Thai people).

Hasta la vista Senor Taco-sin.

Most thais believe its Sae Daeng behind the attack and they may be right. As you say lots of other candidates too. My Thaksin theory is only based on his change of tactics to create mayhem and desire to get large groups of people in violent confrontation. I believe that he believed that assinating Sondhi might accomplish that. We'll see. As Old Man River pointed out, watch to see who Sondhi goes after.

[TAWP]

From The Nation:

"Apart from 84 spent cartridges from three types of automatic rifles found at the scene, police also found a dud M79 grenade on Bus No 30, which was travelling in the reverse lane. No police theory as to whether that was meant to hit Sondhi's car or fired at the bus to create a diversion was immediately available.

Initial crime-scene reports said the M79 failed to explode because the firing range was too close. Found at the scene were 64 cartridges fired from an AK-47, 17 from an HK33 and three from an M16."

Re: the M79 grenade...can anyone explain what they mean by the firing range being to close?

Grenades (shelled) fired from the M79 and M203 grenade launcher all have a safety distance incorporated in them. The rumor it was added was due to GIs firing the grenades into the bunker-walls in 'nam due to letting the rifle rest just ahead of the M203 launcher as per usual, and not thinking about that the grenade wasn't launched from the primary barrel. An urban legend most likely, but all forms of grenades, missiles, rockets and bombs used in the military have timed safeties to disallow accidental friendly deaths.

[Thai at Heart]

Lots of eggsperts in TV as usual.

1. Not too long before Thaksin got removed, he armed his thugs from the forestry department with M16 rifles and set a plan in place for them to visit some PAD rallies - how fast you all forget. Like most countries in the world it's pretty darned easy to acquire an "illegal" firearm here just like other illegal things, all it takes is a little money.

2. Obviously different weapons were utilized here and the shooters were again obviously not professional - the vehicle was sprayed and the occupants were not individually targeted from the pictures posted in the various outlets. Most likely they were highly excited, nervous, scared and full of themselves, and as noted failed to get the job done - thankfully - this act is not the answer.

3. 5.56 and 7.62 rounds will shred the snot out of an unarmored vehicle at close range - basic physics people. Maybe you should watch Myth Busters?

4. There has been numerous cases documented where an individual has taken some type of projectile (bullet, nails, arrows, etc..) to the head and has demonstrated normal competence and faculty control.

5. The struggle here is fairly old and lame, its the old money versus the new money. On a deeper more historical level it's Chang Mai versus Bangkok. And unfortuanately its the poor who are stuck in the middle and getting the short end of the stick.

These activities and events sadden me. I love Thailand and its culture, these people only care about themselves and evenless about this wonderful land and its warm and caring people. Unfortunately it will take a long time to get rid of the old mind set of the power players and the tradition of patronage.

Thanks for that perspective - it's the first time I've seen it spelt out. Wondering if anybody else agrees?

Of course that is part of it. It's still considered ban nork. Then throw in supporters from Isaan who are supposedly completely ban nork.

[catmac]

so much easier for small minds to accomodate[/b].

And if you're going to accuse people of having small minds perhaps you should spell "accommodate" correctly.

As I said , small minds jerk their knees; even smaller minds think that pointing out a simple spelling mistake advances their cause!

[hammered]

I wouldnt be surprised if who did this is known. Doesnt mean they will end up jailed though. All kinds of behind the scenes things will be going on.

It is worth rememebring that several dynamcis are in play here. The big one right now is a vicious intra-power group power game for control. This is now out in the open.

At the same time there is a politcal awakening of many more people and a desire for some change and a desire among others not for change. This however is not the main motivation. If it were a deal wouldbe easily struck and evolution would take its course. The vicious power struggle is using people on sides of this debate as cannon fodder and justification for their now not at all hidden power goals.

In the power struggle one side has just made a play to win but it has gone horribly wrong with their local image wrecked both in terms of what they were meant to be and also in terms of machoness (important in power plays), and their carefully crafted international image has been wrecked too by easily seen lies. On top of this the second rung leadership is divided and to some extent neutered and the main leadership too far away. This creates an atmosphere where there aremany local players form that side lashing out, trying to do deals and change sides back, trying to increase their own power in the organisation and some no doubt still carrying through previously arranged plans or newly arrange ones but without any real overall direction. This means in the short term all kinds of odd things can happen and will continue to do so until either the side that won this round cements its position and does the necessary deals to create a temporary or permannent truce or until the winning side manages to fritter away its advatage and the losing side are prepared for the next round, or very possibly some combination ofthe both.

While this powerplay is going on the other dynamic will still rumble on in the background

[Thai at Heart]

I wouldnt be surprised if who did this is known. Doesnt mean they will end up jailed though. All kinds of behind the scenes things will be going on.

I have very little doubt that it is known. It would have been logistically too risky to perform such an act in the centre of Bangkok under a SOE without having a lot of pull. The issue may well be, is it expedient to publicly declare who did it and in doing so will it inflame the situation more.

You are, I believe absolutely correct in surmising that there are many power groups scrabbling for deals and connections right now. Various bits of the army messed up in Pattaya, Newin screwed up, certain people have openly criticised the current government for losing control, the police are completely neutered at the moment and the PM apparently went from hero to zero and back again in the space of a few days and then starts talk of an amnesty for the banned TRT guys. From some, the silence is deafening, from others they do protest much too much.

No one wants to back the losing horse in this situation and I think we can all say that loyalty in Thailand politics and business is a very fickle thing.

We get to see only the smallest part of the story, and lots of strings are being pulled in all directions. Trying to predict what may happen is harder than working out "who shot JR?.

[Plus]

I don't think it's as simple as a power play.

Thai state has great many "players" involved, all organically meshed up, interdendent yet vocal in pursuit of their own goals.There's no central brain behind it, no coordination, they just share the same value structures that make them appear indentical at times.

Just look at a long list of red enemies - privy council, elites, military, businesmen, bureaucrats, civil service, media, Democracts, PAD, middle classes, urban population - the whole country conspired to crash their democracy.

Surely some entities within the "state" want to assert their power, but nothing extraordinary, all within their boundaries - the army is not going to control the government, for example, and PAD is not going to impose new politics. They just ruffle their feathers but still stay inside their nests.

>>>

Note that on their side the reds claim politicians and police - two most corrupt and despised entities by their enemies.

Of course they also claim the poor, but only poor from regions controlled by their politicians. Poor in the South, East and Central Thailand are excluded.

[Plus]

It would have been logistically too risky to perform such an act in the centre of Bangkok under a SOE without having a lot of pull.

Not at all.

All they have to do is to avoid running into army patrols after the shooting, and at that time of the day, 5AM, in ten minutes they could have been somewhere in Buddhamonton if they took elevated road at Pinklao.

[webfact]

Well,I know it is hard to lose, nobody want to lose but IMHO it would be honored by the voter if losers have the guts to admit it!

Of course there will be elections. Nobody knows the day. But it is not a form of true democracy to get an "election day on the agenda" by using brute force or violence.

This applies to every color who want to run this country in future! Period

[Insight]

so much easier for small minds to accomodate[/b].

And if you're going to accuse people of having small minds perhaps you should spell "accommodate" correctly.

As I said , small minds jerk their knees; even smaller minds think that pointing out a simple spelling mistake advances their cause!

I'm hardly astounded into your point of view, but keep trying.

[Thai at Heart]

It would have been logistically too risky to perform such an act in the centre of Bangkok under a SOE without having a lot of pull.

Not at all.

All they have to do is to avoid running into army patrols after the shooting, and at that time of the day, 5AM, in ten minutes they could have been somewhere in Buddhamonton if they took elevated road at Pinklao.

Don't you think there would probably have been logistically easier and probably more successful ways than trying to stop his car in a city famous for it's traffic jams? The drive by is a traditional way of doing things in Thailand, but without some help to guarantee getting there and getting away, extremely risky.

Of course it would help, if for one day, the cameras go off and everyone turns a blind eye.

[scotbeve]

The rumour going around among Thais I know is that it's Suthep Tueksuban the deputy prime minister behind the attempted hit. Sondi 'outed' him as the power behind Abhisit. Sondi calls Abhisit the puppet of Suthep.

Except that info is not worth the bandwidth of saying it.

I could add something, but that would cause that I get warned again for being cynical.....

If there would be the smallest probability ASTV would fire at Suthep already...

Suthep, in general, isn't loved very much by the general public....

[MILT]

This is exactly the ratcheting up of instability that I was hoping for - the Thai Baht must now surely begin to decline as foreign investors get cold feet. Let´s get back to 60b = 1 UK pound... sooner rather than later. Coup now please...

By all means, lets kill people so you can enjoy a declining baht. What a sorry ass you are.

Despite the way Oldexplorer worded his post, I bet most farangs living here have one eye on the exchange rate whenever there is civil unrest. It takes guys like Oldexplorer to be honest enough to admit it. He didn't mention any wish for anyone to get killed, and the latest round of unrest hasn't led to many deaths. Wishful thinking hasn't led to the deaths so 'let's kill people' is irrelevant.

Most but not all! Sometimes ones honesty is not always worth spewing out to others. To me it is this mentality and other things that lead to the suffering of others. Money Money Money. There should have not been even one death! Sometimes peoples emotions get set on fire and more times than not, it's all about being in a mob and expressing pent up anger just from day to day life and nothing to do with the topics of the protest. I get that impression just from watching the TV here on the people attacking various targets. When the Thai Govt. moniters this thread (and you can bet your arse that they are) These remarks help in shaping thier "FARANGS" policies and ex-pats living here.And just to let anyone know how long I have lived here, it was well before there was tarmac on the road to Mae Sai. It is not my country so I have nothing to say about the current political situation here other than " all things will pass" good and bad it's just the nature of this world....