Gbp Rate On The Rise?

[MJP]

The pound is now certain to rise as I have just transferred a sizeable sum into Thailand after putting it off as long as possible.

As my dad says, 'it's only money'.

Oh you went to the MJP School of Investment too?!

Best thing to do. Set up a GBP holding FOREX account with Bangkok Bank. You'll need a Non'O' and a letter from the British Consulate confirming you are a Brit and you want to set up a bank account. This costs the ridiculous sum of 1750 Baht, but then you are dealing with the British Government here.

Minimum first sum to open the account is £2500. They give you a month to transfer the money. Minimum to keep in account after that is £250.

There's a 2% fee for withdrawing pound notes, but no fee for transfering into THB.

I still think Sterling is screwed mind you.

[micky44]

Well, if anyone really considers that the pound will not rise against the bt (save for short term corrections) then more fool them!

Well maybe I'm a fool then because I see GBP strengthening marginally against THB in the short term but my medium and long term view is that GBP will weaken quite substantially and as discussed elsewhere in this forum previously, 35 Baht per GBP during the next five to seven years is entirely probable if not very likely. As for the poster who estimates 80 baht per Pound, do you have any logiv to support this claim and did you get confused when trying to post in the jokes section!

No maybe about it. But go on give us your theory.

Wow 35!!!!

Guess you took the blue pills then!!

Maybe the guy who predicted 80 can give you a few of his uppers.

What a nut!

When Western economies recover then so too will Asian economies but Asian economies will not have the overhang of Quantitative Easing, thus true growth and progress will be more easily achieved.

The Thai economy is export led but less than 50% of that market is in the West, the remainder is regional - dependence on Western markets is not as huge and all inclusive as people may think. In going forward though, Thai exports will recover more fully as the economies in the West recover.

Tourism represents around 7% of GDP and is not a serious factor in the recovery process since shortfalls in the numbers from Western tourists will likely be replaced by those from other countries.

The longer term historic norm in the GBP/THB exchange rate is around 35 and this only changed as a result of the Asian crisis in 1997 - During the following twelve years Thailand borrowed and repaid its loans to the IMF and now has substantial foreign reserves, in excess of 110 bill. In the years since '97 Thailand has done much to put its financial house in order and its financial system, under the auspices of the BOT, is well regarded. One of the benefits of that progress is that Thai financial institutions were hardly suffered any Sub Prime losses directly.

In recent years GBP/THB hovered around 70 and expats and frequent tourists became accustomed to this level because it made living in Thailand cost effective for holders of GBP. It's easy to forget however that 35 Baht per Pound is not the anomaly, 70 Baht is however.

Thailand is unlikely to suffer the same problems of social unrest resulting from the economic downturn as the West - the population is not so heavily dependent on social financial support as say the UK or Europe. The return to work factor is therefore likely to be shorter and stronger in Asia than in the West and without the associated overhead.

Finally, BOT has moved away from linking THB solely to USD and now manages its currency against a basket of regional currencies, BOT has also moved away from keeping its reserves solely in USD - currency dependency on USD is therefore not such a huge factor today as previously albeit all export bills are still settled by the Bank in USD.

Chiang Mai, i follow your posts quite closeley, and beleive you have a fair and informend view of of this situation at the moment. know here is the question ! in your opioion, wait for it !! what would you do if you were holding £ ? but ultamately wanted bht to finnace the new life in LOS, i can not get my head around changing at the 52 mark, not when having 70 before, or is this just me being pig headed, should i bite the bullet? or wait it out? oh that question is aimed at chaing Mai !

Edited May 13, 2009 by micky44

[mommysboy]

Well, if anyone really considers that the pound will not rise against the bt (save for short term corrections) then more fool them!

Well maybe I'm a fool then because I see GBP strengthening marginally against THB in the short term but my medium and long term view is that GBP will weaken quite substantially and as discussed elsewhere in this forum previously, 35 Baht per GBP during the next five to seven years is entirely probable if not very likely. As for the poster who estimates 80 baht per Pound, do you have any logiv to support this claim and did you get confused when trying to post in the jokes section!

No maybe about it. But go on give us your theory.

Wow 35!!!!

Guess you took the blue pills then!!

Maybe the guy who predicted 80 can give you a few of his uppers.

What a nut!

When Western economies recover then so too will Asian economies but Asian economies will not have the overhang of Quantitative Easing, thus true growth and progress will be more easily achieved.

The Thai economy is export led but less than 50% of that market is in the West, the remainder is regional - dependence on Western markets is not as huge and all inclusive as people may think. In going forward though, Thai exports will recover more fully as the economies in the West recover.

Tourism represents around 7% of GDP and is not a serious factor in the recovery process since shortfalls in the numbers from Western tourists will likely be replaced by those from other countries.

The longer term historic norm in the GBP/THB exchange rate is around 35 and this only changed as a result of the Asian crisis in 1997 - During the following twelve years Thailand borrowed and repaid its loans to the IMF and now has substantial foreign reserves, in excess of 110 bill. In the years since '97 Thailand has done much to put its financial house in order and its financial system, under the auspices of the BOT, is well regarded. One of the benefits of that progress is that Thai financial institutions were hardly suffered any Sub Prime losses directly.

In recent years GBP/THB hovered around 70 and expats and frequent tourists became accustomed to this level because it made living in Thailand cost effective for holders of GBP. It's easy to forget however that 35 Baht per Pound is not the anomaly, 70 Baht is however.

Thailand is unlikely to suffer the same problems of social unrest resulting from the economic downturn as the West - the population is not so heavily dependent on social financial support as say the UK or Europe. The return to work factor is therefore likely to be shorter and stronger in Asia than in the West and without the associated overhead.

Finally, BOT has moved away from linking THB solely to USD and now manages its currency against a basket of regional currencies, BOT has also moved away from keeping its reserves solely in USD - currency dependency on USD is therefore not such a huge factor today as previously albeit all export bills are still settled by the Bank in USD.

Chiang Mai, regarding the sentence highlighted in green.

I googled/yahooeded, and bahooed to find yearly rates pound to bt. without success. You seem to be in the know, so is there any chance of providing a table or graph? I mean you must know as you are quoting facts on the subject.!

What I did find was a statement that the Thai bt was fixed at a rate of 20 to the dollar for a number of years (I assume 30-40 to the pound), but that the rate was so removed from reality that a collapse was inevitable which duly happened in the mid 70's. I hope you are not using these figures in your assertions.

It's a crucial point because as your rhetoric has already been challenged, it would be something of an 'early bath' if the figures were found to be lacking too.

I feel it's more than a joke because people appear to be looking up to you for advice in real life situations.

[12DrinkMore]

Chiang Mai, regarding the sentence highlighted in green.

I googled/yahooeded, and bahooed to find yearly rates pound to bt. without success. You seem to be in the know, so is there any chance of providing a table or graph? I mean you must know as you are quoting facts on the subject.!

What I did find was a statement that the Thai bt was fixed at a rate of 20 to the dollar for a number of years (I assume 30-40 to the pound), but that the rate was so removed from reality that a collapse was inevitable which duly happened in the mid 70's. I hope you are not using these figures in your assertions.

It's a crucial point because as your rhetoric has already been challenged, it would be something of an 'early bath' if the figures were found to be lacking too.

I feel it's more than a joke because people appear to be looking up to you for advice in real life situations.

The Baht was at 20 to the USD from at least 1948 to 1988, then there was a spell at 25 until the Asian crisis. After that it has been yo-yo time.

The GBP was around 38 to 40 from 1993 to 1997, and then the yo-yo started.

You can find data here

http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/etc/USDpages.pdf for the USD historic rates against a lot of currencies.

and for the GBP try

http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/data.html

and put in the parameters, only seems to go back as far as 1993, but that is probably about as far as is useful

I wish we could go back to those nice stable times, before the introduction of "innovative financial instruments" and "investment banks" and "hedge funds" who rely on the chaos they cause to make profits.

And with all respect to Chiang Mai and the rest of TV, please do not make any serious investment decisions based on posting here. The forex markets are pretty much impossible to predict. You can loose your shirt and more in this game. And historic rates are, IMO, not something to base decisions on. The whole ball game has changed with this nasty experiment of "quantitative easing", so far in the US, UK, Europe (maybe) and Japan, which debases the currencies and must surely lead to further devaluation and inflation. But there are so many opposing views that it is really impossible to know how it will all turn out. I am not optimistic....

[MJP]

Have a look at this.

http://www.oanda.com/convert/fxhistory

It was 39-40 during the 1990's UK recession/Asian Tiger boom. Then in the Asian crash hit 97, then fell back over the years to around 60, climbing with UK fundaMENTALS to 76 (I bought loads then) now back to 50.

Now with the West truly in the toilet, ChiangMai is probably right. Especially with printy, printy!

However, Hugh hendry (hedge fund manager in London) reckons emerging market currencies could crash some 400%.

Who knows?

I given up.

[mommysboy]

Poster Chiang Mai writes 'Tourism represents around 7% of GDP and is not a serious factor in the recovery process since shortfalls in the numbers from Western tourists will likely be replaced by those from other countries.'

Chiang Mai, sorry one more thing, yesterday I posted a piece from The Nation about the number of tourists having halved. In that report it specifically stated that Asian tourist numbers were well down, I guess they are feeling the pinch too. How then can you justify the above? In short from which destinations will the others come from?

[MJP]

DrinkMore,

Do you reckon on a fundamental shift, west to east?

[mommysboy]

Chiang Mai, regarding the sentence highlighted in green.

I googled/yahooeded, and bahooed to find yearly rates pound to bt. without success. You seem to be in the know, so is there any chance of providing a table or graph? I mean you must know as you are quoting facts on the subject.!

What I did find was a statement that the Thai bt was fixed at a rate of 20 to the dollar for a number of years (I assume 30-40 to the pound), but that the rate was so removed from reality that a collapse was inevitable which duly happened in the mid 70's. I hope you are not using these figures in your assertions.

It's a crucial point because as your rhetoric has already been challenged, it would be something of an 'early bath' if the figures were found to be lacking too.

I feel it's more than a joke because people appear to be looking up to you for advice in real life situations.

The Baht was at 20 to the USD from at least 1948 to 1988, then there was a spell at 25 until the Asian crisis. After that it has been yo-yo time.

The GBP was around 38 to 40 from 1993 to 1997, and then the yo-yo started.

You can find data here

http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/etc/USDpages.pdf for the USD historic rates against a lot of currencies.

and for the GBP try

http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/data.html

and put in the parameters, only seems to go back as far as 1993, but that is probably about as far as is useful

I wish we could go back to those nice stable times, before the introduction of "innovative financial instruments" and "investment banks" and "hedge funds" who rely on the chaos they cause to make profits.

And with all respect to Chiang Mai and the rest of TV, please do not make any serious investment decisions based on posting here. The forex markets are pretty much impossible to predict. You can loose your shirt and more in this game. And historic rates are, IMO, not something to base decisions on. The whole ball game has changed with this nasty experiment of "quantitative easing", so far in the US, UK, Europe (maybe) and Japan, which debases the currencies and must surely lead to further devaluation and inflation. But there are so many opposing views that it is really impossible to know how it will all turn out. I am not optimistic....

I second that.

Is it possible though to suggest a good general ploy ?: averaging out!

Quite simple, you just change a bit at a time, and thus avoid the highs and the lows.

[mommysboy]

Have a look at this.

http://www.oanda.com/convert/fxhistory

It was 39-40 during the 1990's UK recession/Asian Tiger boom. Then in the Asian crash hit 97, then fell back over the years to around 60, climbing with UK fundaMENTALS to 76 (I bought loads then) now back to 50.

Now with the West truly in the toilet, ChiangMai is probably right. Especially with printy, printy!

However, Hugh hendry (hedge fund manager in London) reckons emerging market currencies could crash some 400%.

Who knows?

I given up.

From what I can gather 39, which is still a good 10% above the predicted 35%, appears to be an extreme rather than a norm. 35 would also represent a further 30% fall from the pound's present position and possibly suggest a valuation of near parity with the dollar.

Any chance of running a betting school ?. Count me in please.

[MJP]

Have a look at this.

http://www.oanda.com/convert/fxhistory

It was 39-40 during the 1990's UK recession/Asian Tiger boom. Then in the Asian crash hit 97, then fell back over the years to around 60, climbing with UK fundaMENTALS to 76 (I bought loads then) now back to 50.

Now with the West truly in the toilet, ChiangMai is probably right. Especially with printy, printy!

However, Hugh hendry (hedge fund manager in London) reckons emerging market currencies could crash some 400%.

Who knows?

I given up.

From what I can gather 39, which is still a good 10% above the predicted 35%, appears to be an extreme rather than a norm. 35 would also represent a further 30% fall from the pound's present position and possibly suggest a valuation of near parity with the dollar.

Any chance of running a betting school ?. Count me in please.

Well, many think GBP could fall to 90 cents USD!!!

Who knows?

Two things that would make this happen,

1. Gilts strike

2. Brown goes to the IMF

I believe that this is likely to happen.

What you can do is transfer enough GBP to live here for say a year at 50 Baht to 1 GBP now. Sit it out.

Don't think the Pound will rise from here, so you are unlikely to lose.

[BygonKeaw]

The U.K. economy is in better shape than the European Union. As with the dollar, the £ will recover...... to approx 63 Baht in the next 5 months as interest rates also rise within the U.K. to counteract inflation. With Spain, Ireland, Greece it will be at the expense of the Euro which can expect to see about September as 37/38 baht. Dollar still strong at 35/36...

prophets are not an extinct species!

prophets have never been but its not hard to predict the future if you educate yourself.

[BygonKeaw]

Well, if anyone really considers that the pound will not rise against the bt (save for short term corrections) then more fool them!

Well maybe I'm a fool then because I see GBP strengthening marginally against THB in the short term but my medium and long term view is that GBP will weaken quite substantially and as discussed elsewhere in this forum previously, 35 Baht per GBP during the next five to seven years is entirely probable if not very likely. As for the poster who estimates 80 baht per Pound, do you have any logiv to support this claim and did you get confused when trying to post in the jokes section!

No maybe about it. But go on give us your theory.

Wow 35!!!!

Guess you took the blue pills then!!

Maybe the guy who predicted 80 can give you a few of his uppers.

What a nut!

In the next 5 - 7 years i predict one world currency with a one world central bank controlling the planet.

Give it another 5 - 7 years and 85% of the planet will have been depopulated. Remaining 15% RFID chipped.

So the real concern shouldnt be GBP - THB

[MJP]

Well, if anyone really considers that the pound will not rise against the bt (save for short term corrections) then more fool them!

Well maybe I'm a fool then because I see GBP strengthening marginally against THB in the short term but my medium and long term view is that GBP will weaken quite substantially and as discussed elsewhere in this forum previously, 35 Baht per GBP during the next five to seven years is entirely probable if not very likely. As for the poster who estimates 80 baht per Pound, do you have any logiv to support this claim and did you get confused when trying to post in the jokes section!

No maybe about it. But go on give us your theory.

Wow 35!!!!

Guess you took the blue pills then!!

Maybe the guy who predicted 80 can give you a few of his uppers.

What a nut!

In the next 5 - 7 years i predict one world currency with a one world central bank controlling the planet.

Give it another 5 - 7 years and 85% of the planet will have been depopulated. Remaining 15% RFID chipped.

So the real concern shouldnt be GBP - THB

I don't think so.

It's like the end of the Soviet Union. People ended up ignoring and laughing. They lost control and Yeltsin declared Communism over.

[PCA]

Well, if anyone really considers that the pound will not rise against the bt (save for short term corrections) then more fool them!

Well maybe I'm a fool then because I see GBP strengthening marginally against THB in the short term but my medium and long term view is that GBP will weaken quite substantially and as discussed elsewhere in this forum previously, 35 Baht per GBP during the next five to seven years is entirely probable if not very likely. As for the poster who estimates 80 baht per Pound, do you have any logiv to support this claim and did you get confused when trying to post in the jokes section!

No maybe about it. But go on give us your theory.

Wow 35!!!!

Guess you took the blue pills then!!

Maybe the guy who predicted 80 can give you a few of his uppers.

What a nut!

In the next 5 - 7 years i predict one world currency with a one world central bank controlling the planet.

Give it another 5 - 7 years and 85% of the planet will have been depopulated. Remaining 15% RFID chipped.

So the real concern shouldnt be GBP - THB

I buy the theory behind it but doubt that it will happen within the next 30 to 50 years. Governments across the "developed" world are so highly indebted that repayment based on currently available options is impossible. Should a world currency quickly get established it would mean an immediate crash of whole Europe and the US. The time is not ripe and it takes other forms of constitutions first. People are brainwashed and educated to swallow but they will not blindly take everything with a fingersnip, not yet.

Referring to the pound versus baht it is a clear hold and wait for increasing rates from here in my books though a monthly closing rate below 50 (end of May or end of June) would indicate a further drop towards 40 and possibly lower making life in and trips to thailand a venture of luxury for most Brits.

[thaimate]

i read all the posts about the exchange rates here ,and the only thing i can deduce is that like the bankers who got us into this mess none of you ,or me have a clue its all just fancy guesswork.The only certainty is that nothing is certain.

[MJP]

i read all the posts about the exchange rates here ,and the only thing i can deduce is that like the bankers who got us into this mess none of you ,or me have a clue its all just fancy guesswork.The only certainty is that nothing is certain.

Same as that.

Chaos needs chaos theory.

Carnage needs carnage theory.

Anyone's guess from here.

[chiang mai]

I've glanced a these posts and note several people asking for confirmation on various points and for advice - I'm travelling currently but will respond to all queries when I return home on Friday. But let's be perfectly clear here, I'm not an expert on these matters, just an interested party who takes the time to read and study up on THB/GBP because it affects my income and my life style here in Thailand. Any views I put forth here are simply my opinions and should not be viewed as expert advice.

[BygonKeaw]

i read all the posts about the exchange rates here ,and the only thing i can deduce is that like the bankers who got us into this mess none of you ,or me have a clue its all just fancy guesswork.The only certainty is that nothing is certain.

I myself believe that the mess that we're in has been manipulated into place.

So therefore in my opinion i dont believe its fancy guess work, Infact i know its not.

If you research down the correct path then you'll find out what the people that have orchestrated this mess's real agenda is.

[MJP]

i read all the posts about the exchange rates here ,and the only thing i can deduce is that like the bankers who got us into this mess none of you ,or me have a clue its all just fancy guesswork.The only certainty is that nothing is certain.

I myself believe that the mess that we're in has been manipulated into place.

So therefore in my opinion i dont believe its fancy guess work, Infact i know its not.

If you research down the correct path then you'll find out what the people that have orchestrated this mess's real agenda is.

More . . .

Go on . . .

[BygonKeaw]

i read all the posts about the exchange rates here ,and the only thing i can deduce is that like the bankers who got us into this mess none of you ,or me have a clue its all just fancy guesswork.The only certainty is that nothing is certain.

I myself believe that the mess that we're in has been manipulated into place.

So therefore in my opinion i dont believe its fancy guess work, Infact i know its not.

If you research down the correct path then you'll find out what the people that have orchestrated this mess's real agenda is.

More . . .

Go on . . .

Pm me and ill direct you to everything you need to know about the so called secret agenda.

To be honest there is to much to explain, better than you spend a few hours of documentaries and expand your mind to find out whats really going on who is really hiding behind the curtians.

Once you have a basic understanding your realise why world affairs are currently happening, Yep it'll make u mad but also it should free yourself from future enslavery.

btw its not such a big secret millions of people know what i do, The great thing is people are starting to wake up to this.

[mommysboy]

i read all the posts about the exchange rates here ,and the only thing i can deduce is that like the bankers who got us into this mess none of you ,or me have a clue its all just fancy guesswork.The only certainty is that nothing is certain.

I myself believe that the mess that we're in has been manipulated into place.

So therefore in my opinion i dont believe its fancy guess work, Infact i know its not.

If you research down the correct path then you'll find out what the people that have orchestrated this mess's real agenda is.

More . . .

Go on . . .

Pm me and ill direct you to everything you need to know about the so called secret agenda.

To be honest there is to much to explain, better than you spend a few hours of documentaries and expand your mind to find out whats really going on who is really hiding behind the curtians.

Once you have a basic understanding your realise why world affairs are currently happening, Yep it'll make u mad but also it should free yourself from future enslavery.

btw its not such a big secret millions of people know what i do, The great thing is people are starting to wake up to this.

I believe naam is part of all of this too! He doesn't fool me.

[barrella]

i read all the posts about the exchange rates here ,and the only thing i can deduce is that like the bankers who got us into this mess none of you ,or me have a clue its all just fancy guesswork.The only certainty is that nothing is certain.

I myself believe that the mess that we're in has been manipulated into place.

So therefore in my opinion i dont believe its fancy guess work, Infact i know its not.

If you research down the correct path then you'll find out what the people that have orchestrated this mess's real agenda is.

More . . .

Go on . . .

Pm me and ill direct you to everything you need to know about the so called secret agenda.

To be honest there is to much to explain, better than you spend a few hours of documentaries and expand your mind to find out whats really going on who is really hiding behind the curtians.

Once you have a basic understanding your realise why world affairs are currently happening, Yep it'll make u mad but also it should free yourself from future enslavery.

btw its not such a big secret millions of people know what i do, The great thing is people are starting to wake up to this.

Post us a few links, lets us look at these theories.

[MJP]

This is the sort of thing to watch for. Anything that suggests more PRINTY, PRINTY (Quantitative Easing).

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/finance...land-warns.html

Mervyn King said although banks' survival had been assured by recent bail-outs, they would not start lending freely unless more capital was pumped into their balance sheets.

Mr King said: "There is a big difference in practice between the levels of capital banks need to be stabilised... and those required to persuade banks to exhibit normal levels of risk-aversion. How big that gap is is impossible to say... but it looks as if it will be quite big.

"If the banks are going to continue as private sector entities they will naturally behave in a risk-averse way for a while... [The state] could put in more public sector capital but that has ramifications for the Governments' shareholdings in banks."

[Naam]

I believe naam is part of all of this too! He doesn't fool me.

sshhhhhh...!

[Jungian]

I have been a big fan of English TV since I was about 7 years old starting with my first Brit sitcom Are You Being Served? I guess that is odd for an American child but.... In any event as I got older I wanted to know what the exchange rate was on the Pound so I could compare prices as I watched my BBC America, at the time it was about $2.50=1 Pound. About 2 days ago when I was watching QI I decided to go on the web and check the exchange rate as I had not in many years just to get a more accurate idea to see the Pound was only $1.60 my question is what the heck happened? Here I have been saying for the past I don't know how many years dam_n, stuff is sooooo expensive in the UK.

[cmsally]

I am not a big one for conspiracy theories, well not those large universal world encompassing ones anyway.

But has anyone else noticed how the blame for spending/ unearned wealth/bonuses etc. has suddenly shifted drastically and almost instantaneously to the politicians.

It started I believe just after the ex head of RBS had his house almost trashed. There was suddenly this great swing of publicity that went towards leaked expense notes of politicians. Now when you tune in to the media, instead of seeing various heads of financial institutions being shamed, it is the politicians. It seems the blame game has shifted.

Part of a two pronged attack to remove the present government it would seem. Opposition and financial bodies joining hands? Past articles by FT and Reuters would seem to back this up about the joining of hands against Brown and his compulsion to spend.

It would seem there should be great resistance to hit the printing presses and that would entail the departure of this govt. If that happens and to a certain extent puts the brakes on the pounds downward slide, it could also tie in with Jim Rogers theory about a US$ crisis in 2010; as Obama seems to be happily spending trying to extricate the US out of the problem.

[chiang mai]

When Western economies recover then so too will Asian economies but Asian economies will not have the overhang of Quantitative Easing, thus true growth and progress will be more easily achieved.

The Thai economy is export led but less than 50% of that market is in the West, the remainder is regional - dependence on Western markets is not as huge and all inclusive as people may think. In going forward though, Thai exports will recover more fully as the economies in the West recover.

Tourism represents around 7% of GDP and is not a serious factor in the recovery process since shortfalls in the numbers from Western tourists will likely be replaced by those from other countries.

The longer term historic norm in the GBP/THB exchange rate is around 35 and this only changed as a result of the Asian crisis in 1997 - During the following twelve years Thailand borrowed and repaid its loans to the IMF and now has substantial foreign reserves, in excess of 110 bill. In the years since '97 Thailand has done much to put its financial house in order and its financial system, under the auspices of the BOT, is well regarded. One of the benefits of that progress is that Thai financial institutions were hardly suffered any Sub Prime losses directly.

In recent years GBP/THB hovered around 70 and expats and frequent tourists became accustomed to this level because it made living in Thailand cost effective for holders of GBP. It's easy to forget however that 35 Baht per Pound is not the anomaly, 70 Baht is however.

Thailand is unlikely to suffer the same problems of social unrest resulting from the economic downturn as the West - the population is not so heavily dependent on social financial support as say the UK or Europe. The return to work factor is therefore likely to be shorter and stronger in Asia than in the West and without the associated overhead.

Finally, BOT has moved away from linking THB solely to USD and now manages its currency against a basket of regional currencies, BOT has also moved away from keeping its reserves solely in USD - currency dependency on USD is therefore not such a huge factor today as previously albeit all export bills are still settled by the Bank in USD.

Brave New World then!. I'd certainly agree 70 was never a norm. Must admit I can't comment on the figures yet, but less social unrest, are you kidding? where have you been?

I rather think the effects of quantitiative easing have been and gone as a major impact. You make it sound as if Thailand has no economic woes???? We're just seeing time lag that's all. In a year's time foreign reserves may have dwindled to zero, and Gov't borrowing soared. Yes it's so fiscally sound that leading brokers downgraded it's credit rating!

What we've seen is the pound at it's lowest ebb, as investment picks up, so will the demand for sterling, we are seeing it now, it's about in line with the bt.

What about inflation though? I'd imagine Thailand outstripped the west on this over say the last 20 years! wouldn't this erode value and move the average to 40-45 as a minimum?

Love the way you dismiss 7% (min) GDP as seemingly inconsequential- do you realise that multiple millions are employed by tourism and it's spin offs and Thailand has seen a 50% reduction in numbers.? Aren't you aware of the multiplier effect?

Not linked to the dollar??

Yes Thailand is very export driven, as are many of it's trading partners, don't just assume demand will suddenly just appear from elsewhere. Asia as a whole is very heavily dependent on the west.

Brave New World then!. I'd certainly agree 70 was never a norm. Must admit I can't comment on the figures yet, but less social unrest, are you kidding? where have you been?

What I mean by this is that local people who become unemployed will most likely return to their villages and families where they will have support and would I guess return to farming as a mainstay. I don't believe I have seen any social unrest in Thailand resulting from the economic downturn.

I rather think the effects of quantitiative easing have been and gone as a major impact. You make it sound as if Thailand has no economic woes???? We're just seeing time lag that's all. In a year's time foreign reserves may have dwindled to zero, and Gov't borrowing soared. Yes it's so fiscally sound that leading brokers downgraded it's credit rating!

And I don't think we have even begun to see the negative effects of QE in the West as yet!

Certainly Thailand has economic issues to deal with but it has thus far been able to do so with loans from the domestic banks and loans linked to capital projects via its major trading partners, ie, Japan. What Thailand has not done is to print money.

What we've seen is the pound at it's lowest ebb, as investment picks up, so will the demand for sterling, we are seeing it now, it's about in line with the bt.

What about inflation though? I'd imagine Thailand outstripped the west on this over say the last 20 years! wouldn't this erode value and move the average to 40-45 as a minimum?

Why?

Love the way you dismiss 7% (min) GDP as seemingly inconsequential- do you realise that multiple millions are employed by tourism and it's spin offs and Thailand has seen a 50% reduction in numbers.? Aren't you aware of the multiplier effect?

I dismiss 7% as a small number because in the context of overall GDP it is a small number. For the number to be meaningful it would need to go away completely and that it will not do. Certainly tourist arrivals wered won 50% last quarter but that's just one month - if arrivals stayed down by that ammount for twelve months then the impact on GDP would be minus 3.5%, not a big deal really.

Not linked to the dollar??

THB is not pegged to USD, as is say the HK Dollar. The linkage with USD is that BOT export bills are settled in USD, that's all.

Yes Thailand is very export driven, as are many of it's trading partners, don't just assume demand will suddenly just appear from elsewhere. Asia as a whole is very heavily dependent on the west.

One more note on exports: the loss in exports results from losses in electronics and automobiles, agricultural exports to the West remain bouyant.

[chiang mai]

Chiang Mai, regarding the sentence highlighted in green.

I googled/yahooeded, and bahooed to find yearly rates pound to bt. without success. You seem to be in the know, so is there any chance of providing a table or graph? I mean you must know as you are quoting facts on the subject.!

What I did find was a statement that the Thai bt was fixed at a rate of 20 to the dollar for a number of years (I assume 30-40 to the pound), but that the rate was so removed from reality that a collapse was inevitable which duly happened in the mid 70's. I hope you are not using these figures in your assertions.

It's a crucial point because as your rhetoric has already been challenged, it would be something of an 'early bath' if the figures were found to be lacking too.

I feel it's more than a joke because people appear to be looking up to you for advice in real life situations.

No I don't have a graph, just going from memory, although the numbers should be fairly easy to verify via Oanda or similar - I believe the USD/THB at 20 Baht sounds about right.

[chiang mai]

Chiang Mai, i follow your posts quite closeley, and beleive you have a fair and informend view of of this situation at the moment. know here is the question ! in your opioion, wait for it !! what would you do if you were holding £ ? but ultamately wanted bht to finnace the new life in LOS, i can not get my head around changing at the 52 mark, not when having 70 before, or is this just me being pig headed, should i bite the bullet? or wait it out? oh that question is aimed at chaing Mai !

I can't tell you what you should do but since I am holding GBP and I do live in Thailand, this is what I am doing/have done:

I have bought enough THB to cover my living expenses for the next twelve months and if/when I see THB get close to 54 I will likely buy some more, probably only about one years worth however - by doing those things I have covered off my short term strategy. Over the next twelve months I will firm up my view as to where I think currencies will be in three, five and ten years time and I will act once I feel comfortable. My view at present is that the ten year view suggests GBP/THB will be somewhere around 35 or 40, what will happen in the meantime however remains unclear. The BOE is now suggesting that the economic downturn in the UK may last for four or five years and I reckon that is likely - unless the effects of QE generate hyper inflation (and I think this unlikely) there is no reason to believe that UK interest rates will exceed 5% hence I expect GBP to remain weak (or closer to its true value) over that period. I also expect the Thai economy to come out of this downturn much sooner than the UK hence my bullish view on THB over the longer term. If I had to guess at what I might do over the next five years I will likely buy property in Thailand so that I have THB in a fixed asset form.

[chiang mai]

Chiang Mai, regarding the sentence highlighted in green.

I googled/yahooeded, and bahooed to find yearly rates pound to bt. without success. You seem to be in the know, so is there any chance of providing a table or graph? I mean you must know as you are quoting facts on the subject.!

What I did find was a statement that the Thai bt was fixed at a rate of 20 to the dollar for a number of years (I assume 30-40 to the pound), but that the rate was so removed from reality that a collapse was inevitable which duly happened in the mid 70's. I hope you are not using these figures in your assertions.

It's a crucial point because as your rhetoric has already been challenged, it would be something of an 'early bath' if the figures were found to be lacking too.

I feel it's more than a joke because people appear to be looking up to you for advice in real life situations.

The Baht was at 20 to the USD from at least 1948 to 1988, then there was a spell at 25 until the Asian crisis. After that it has been yo-yo time.

The GBP was around 38 to 40 from 1993 to 1997, and then the yo-yo started.

You can find data here

http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/etc/USDpages.pdf for the USD historic rates against a lot of currencies.

and for the GBP try

http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/data.html

and put in the parameters, only seems to go back as far as 1993, but that is probably about as far as is useful

I wish we could go back to those nice stable times, before the introduction of "innovative financial instruments" and "investment banks" and "hedge funds" who rely on the chaos they cause to make profits.

And with all respect to Chiang Mai and the rest of TV, please do not make any serious investment decisions based on posting here. The forex markets are pretty much impossible to predict. You can loose your shirt and more in this game. And historic rates are, IMO, not something to base decisions on. The whole ball game has changed with this nasty experiment of "quantitative easing", so far in the US, UK, Europe (maybe) and Japan, which debases the currencies and must surely lead to further devaluation and inflation. But there are so many opposing views that it is really impossible to know how it will all turn out. I am not optimistic....

I second that.

Is it possible though to suggest a good general ploy ?: averaging out!

Quite simple, you just change a bit at a time, and thus avoid the highs and the lows.

One more time with feeling:

In no way shape or form am I offering advice on any of this, I am simply giving my view, my personal opinion and stating what I may do and why. If others disagree I am most happy to be challenged as long as it is a sensible and polite challenge.