Baht-uk Pound

[Naam]

What if countries just keep devaluing their currency's one after another to remain competitive?

I mean the Pound, Swiss franc and some others have been devalued lately?

Not an expert, just writing down some thoughts.

you are correct in claiming you are not an expert. posting rubbish such as "Pound, Swiss Franc and others devalued lately..." proofs your claim as there was no devaluation but a considerable strengthening of these currencies "lately". besides... try to educate yourself concerning the definition of "devaluation/revaluation" and "exchange rate fluctuations". this are different animals.

i suggest you look for a youtube clip or a self-explanatory picture

[GuestHouse]

What's all this GBP/Bht nonsense ??

check this

Against This

[chiang mai]

What's all this GBP/Bht nonsense ??

check this

Against This

As noted in post #128 previously, but a picture is worth ....

[mommysboy]

Bit to soon for the back slapping and circle jerk off i think.

Risk appetite is back and money is pouring out of the Dollar for now. Dollar showing signs of oversold and due a correction.

Obviously these are on your preferred activities list.

Personally, my comments were said with a little irony as I don't see for one moment how a housing crisis like this can be reversed in a month or 2.

Correction! not sure.

[neil324]

Bit to soon for the back slapping and circle jerk off i think.

Risk appetite is back and money is pouring out of the Dollar for now. Dollar showing signs of oversold and due a correction.

Obviously these are on your preferred activities list.

Personally, my comments were said with a little irony as I don't see for one moment how a housing crisis like this can be reversed in a month or 2.

Correction! not sure.

Ya did'nt see me in the original circle did ya.

Correction,rebound,reversal,retracement take ya pick m8.

[Lancelot]

Beats me where the exchange rates are heading.

In general I'd say the Baht is weakening against most major curriencies except the USD; while the US$ is losing power all around. Just too many USD floating around and the (US) governement is probably happy to have imports be a bit more expensive, helping to narrow the trade gap.

Good for the Brits; hope you guys get to 60

[AlexLah]

Naam, I just meant that it might be better to look at what one Pound or one Dollar will buy you. If today I can buy a kilo of rice for one Pound but next year I can buy only half a kilo, what has happened? The price of rice went up or did the Pound lost its value? Exchange rate could still remain the same between Pound and Dollar.

Swiss Franc has been devalued or do you deny that this happened?

http://www.rferl.org/content/Switzerland_B...cy/1509618.html

[mommysboy]

Bit to soon for the back slapping and circle jerk off i think.

Risk appetite is back and money is pouring out of the Dollar for now. Dollar showing signs of oversold and due a correction.

Obviously these are on your preferred activities list.

Personally, my comments were said with a little irony as I don't see for one moment how a housing crisis like this can be reversed in a month or 2.

Correction! not sure.

Ya did'nt see me in the original circle did ya.

Correction,rebound,reversal,retracement take ya pick m8.

Thing is 1.60 is about normal all things being equal, and things are pretty much even when you compare the 2 economies. I think both currencies are likely to strengthen against

[ChiangMaiFun]

At the end of the day... when all's said and done most people were predicting a constant fall of GBP/THB when it was 49/50/51 and it has risen (phoenix like) to 55 - someone actually suggested to me to transfer anywhere near 50 as that's was the peak - I held off and did so at 54 ish (still below today's peak) and gained 100,000s (mostly luck I know)

I'd like to know what the current predictions are? more gains? or falls? one thing this has proved to me (the obvious) that no one but no one has a clue...

I think anyone who asks the question in a forum like this, "when is the best time to exchange money", or, "will the Baht rise or fall soon", must be prepared to live with the replies they receive without complaint.

Who's complaining CM? not me... just commenting and reflecting

[neil324]

Bit to soon for the back slapping and circle jerk off i think.

Risk appetite is back and money is pouring out of the Dollar for now. Dollar showing signs of oversold and due a correction.

Obviously these are on your preferred activities list.

Personally, my comments were said with a little irony as I don't see for one moment how a housing crisis like this can be reversed in a month or 2.

Correction! not sure.

Ya did'nt see me in the original circle did ya.

Correction,rebound,reversal,retracement take ya pick m8.

Thing is 1.60 is about normal all things being equal, and things are pretty much even when you compare the 2 economies. I think both currencies are likely to strengthen against

But things arent equal are they. The safe haven thing comes into play.

What the baht will do in its own right is another story.

All i'm saying is the recent rise in the GBP/Baht is down to the unwinding Dollar and nothing to do with Sterling strength. Maybe the worst is over and stocks will carry on rising or maybe its a bull trap before another leg down. Time will tell.

[chiang mai]

Bit to soon for the back slapping and circle jerk off i think.

Risk appetite is back and money is pouring out of the Dollar for now. Dollar showing signs of oversold and due a correction.

Obviously these are on your preferred activities list.

Personally, my comments were said with a little irony as I don't see for one moment how a housing crisis like this can be reversed in a month or 2.

Correction! not sure.

Ya did'nt see me in the original circle did ya.

Correction,rebound,reversal,retracement take ya pick m8.

Thing is 1.60 is about normal all things being equal, and things are pretty much even when you compare the 2 economies. I think both currencies are likely to strengthen against

Your comments frustrate me because they are so lose and so vague - "1.60 is about normal", whatever does that mean, 1.60 hasn't been the norm for quite a few years! "And things are pretty much even when you compare the 2 economies", are you actually suggesting that the US and UK economies are the same size, shape, debt levels, composition or what! "I think that both currencies are likely to strengthen against" (presumably the Baht), why, how, on what basis, is that because the coin has now finally dropped with you that GBP/THB tracks GBP/USD! Earlier you suggested that GBP/THB would exist in a range of 45/60 and I said that wasn't a range it was the Outback - now you suggest that 55 is about right, for goodness sake, why not just say, I don't know.

Sorry Mommysboy I'm not trying to be argumentative but I find your posts on this subject to mostly uninformed, unimaginative and mostly rubbish.

[chiang mai]

At the end of the day... when all's said and done most people were predicting a constant fall of GBP/THB when it was 49/50/51 and it has risen (phoenix like) to 55 - someone actually suggested to me to transfer anywhere near 50 as that's was the peak - I held off and did so at 54 ish (still below today's peak) and gained 100,000s (mostly luck I know)

I'd like to know what the current predictions are? more gains? or falls? one thing this has proved to me (the obvious) that no one but no one has a clue...

I think anyone who asks the question in a forum like this, "when is the best time to exchange money", or, "will the Baht rise or fall soon", must be prepared to live with the replies they receive without complaint.

Who's complaining CM? not me... just commenting and reflecting

I'm aware and am not taking a dig, mostly just making a point for the benefit of others.

[PCA]

But things arent equal are they. The safe haven thing comes into play.

What the baht will do in its own right is another story.

All i'm saying is the recent rise in the GBP/Baht is down to the unwinding Dollar and nothing to do with Sterling strength.

USD/THB is a mother/baby relationship and of course the recent rise in GBP/THB has its roots in the dollar weakness as a matter of fact that there is no free trading float. Any big scale intervention from outside would result holding $ in hand when selling baht which - you might not be surprised - is not desired.

Regardless currency valuations across the board have been showing GBP strength not only versus USD but as well against EUR, JPY and (CHF). This thread so far I understand is a discussion about pound-baht exchange rates its historical fluctuations and possible price projections over the medium term. Should for example America see sense and use in devalueing the baht you could all see the baht with trousers down to the knees from as fast as Monday. But that is not intended simply because of the reason that other powers would march in there (economically) kicking the US out and milking our beautiful banana republic for their own purpose (modern colonisation).

Conclusion: the baht pound relation as handled hundreds of times on this board is a pure reflexion of USD/THB rates and therewith open for a similar price manipulation like 1997 anytime to be born in the USA.

[chiang mai]

Finally, some common sense appears.

[mommysboy]

Well I don't know nor do you!! the difference is I don't advise with conviction on the back of it. I was commenting on the supposition that the pound would suffer a reversal against the dollar.

For someone not trying to be argumentative you seem to be doing a good job, particularly as it was you that requested we stop any discourse between ourselves .

As to the main question, well what is the norm between the bt and the dollar then?, I'd hazard a guess at 1.50 -170.

Comparing the economies in a relative manner (something you haven't quite got to grips with viz a viz the state of the world economy vs UK, and relative size of GDPs - see your earlier postings), then indeed it's ab for dab- in fact there are some remarkable similarities.

You don't need to be a weather forecaster to know which way the wind is blowing CM!!

[Naam]

Swiss Franc has been devalued or do you deny that this happened?

yes i deny that and you can shove your obscure unprofessional websites (which quote rubbish such as "devaluation") were the moon doesn't shine. as already mentioned, you and the websites you visit have no freaking idea what a devaluation is, moreover, referring to a report from march 13 during a period of crisis and calling it "lately" is ridiculous. "lately" = recent events and here are the undeniable recent facts e.g. CHF/USD referring to

quote: "The franc lost 2.6 percent of its value against the euro and 3.2 percent against the dollar."

one can't deny that the Franc lost against USD and EUR if one picks a certain period. much more important is to look at a period of several years how a currency pair faired. but "lately" (15. march 2009 till today) CHF gained 12% vs. USD and over a period of five years the gain was 16%. here are the relevant graphs:

[chiang mai]

Well I don't know nor do you!! the difference is I don't advise with conviction on the back of it. I was commenting on the supposition that the pound would suffer a reversal against the dollar.

For someone not trying to be argumentative you seem to be doing a good job, particularly as it was you that requested we stop any discourse between ourselves .

As to the main question, well what is the norm between the bt and the dollar then?, I'd hazard a guess at 1.50 -170.

Comparing the economies in a relative manner (something you haven't quite got to grips with viz a viz the state of the world economy vs UK, and relative size of GDPs - see your earlier postings), then indeed it's ab for dab- in fact there are some remarkable similarities.

You don't need to be a weather forecaster to know which way the wind is blowing CM!!

You see yet again, very lose verbiage and misdirection. I don't ADVISE, never have and never will, I offer my opinion and let people know what I intend to do or indeed have done and look for feed back on that basis, why sometimes I even change my mind as a result but only when the argument is sufficiently compelling, yours have not been so! When GBP/USD started to fall in 4Q08 I said that I was selling GBP in favor of USD and one or two people took me to task because the yield difference between the two currencies was significant and many people saw it as a loss leader. I felt very strongly at that time that GBP was in decline but I never once advised on that subject, despite making a substantial amount of money as a result. So did I offer my OPINION with conviction, I hope so because if I didn't then I probably wouldn't have believed it myself.

But let's talk about wind direction for a moment, which way is it blowing. Well if we look at the financial papers it tells us that GBP/USD is at 1.61 so you coming up with a range of 1.50 to 1.70 comes as no surprise and I commend you on your vision in this respect! But the issue is where will it be in three, five, seven and ten years time, for me that's what the interesting and analytical part of this thread is about and taking a snap shot solely as of today and commenting on that picture doesn't help answer those questions - answering those questions involves looking at the history and considering a range of issues and forming an opinion, testing it and then if you're brave enough, putting it up for public scrutiny - answering those questions is not about looking at todays numbers and putting them exactly in the middle of a range, like a baby cushioned between two very soft pillows and then justifying the result with statements such as there could be a run on the Baht or reporting that the Thai economy fell by 7.1%, those things are just not enough unless all you are trying to do is to confirm the state of play as of today.

[cmsally]

An interesting bit of reading (or maybe rubbish) about China - US. In as much as it affects US$ would have a relation to GBP.

Only read it as I saw other articles (Faber + guy in bowtie) about a possible US$ crash end of 2009 - beg. 2010.

Anyone with more knowledge about US-China economies feel free to comment.

Possible Hyperinflation in China

[chiang mai]

An interesting bit of reading (or maybe rubbish) about China - US. In as much as it affects US$ would have a relation to GBP.

Only read it as I saw other articles (Faber + guy in bowtie) about a possible US$ crash end of 2009 - beg. 2010.

Anyone with more knowledge about US-China economies feel free to comment.

Possible Hyperinflation in China

It's a complex piece that I have read twice now without truly understanding it so I'll let the economists and China watchers comment. But this is not the first time the collapse of USD has been raised in articles with a forecast for similar timescales.

[mommysboy]

Well I don't know nor do you!! the difference is I don't advise with conviction on the back of it. I was commenting on the supposition that the pound would suffer a reversal against the dollar.

For someone not trying to be argumentative you seem to be doing a good job, particularly as it was you that requested we stop any discourse between ourselves .

As to the main question, well what is the norm between the bt and the dollar then?, I'd hazard a guess at 1.50 -170.

Comparing the economies in a relative manner (something you haven't quite got to grips with viz a viz the state of the world economy vs UK, and relative size of GDPs - see your earlier postings), then indeed it's ab for dab- in fact there are some remarkable similarities.

You don't need to be a weather forecaster to know which way the wind is blowing CM!!

You see yet again, very lose verbiage and misdirection. I don't ADVISE, never have and never will, I offer my opinion and let people know what I intend to do or indeed have done and look for feed back on that basis, why sometimes I even change my mind as a result but only when the argument is sufficiently compelling, yours have not been so! When GBP/USD started to fall in 4Q08 I said that I was selling GBP in favor of USD and one or two people took me to task because the yield difference between the two currencies was significant and many people saw it as a loss leader. I felt very strongly at that time that GBP was in decline but I never once advised on that subject, despite making a substantial amount of money as a result. So did I offer my OPINION with conviction, I hope so because if I didn't then I probably wouldn't have believed it myself.

But let's talk about wind direction for a moment, which way is it blowing. Well if we look at the financial papers it tells us that GBP/USD is at 1.61 so you coming up with a range of 1.50 to 1.70 comes as no surprise and I commend you on your vision in this respect! But the issue is where will it be in three, five, seven and ten years time, for me that's what the interesting and analytical part of this thread is about and taking a snap shot solely as of today and commenting on that picture doesn't help answer those questions - answering those questions involves looking at the history and considering a range of issues and forming an opinion, testing it and then if you're brave enough, putting it up for public scrutiny - answering those questions is not about looking at todays numbers and putting them exactly in the middle of a range, like a baby cushioned between two very soft pillows and then justifying the result with statements such as there could be a run on the Baht or reporting that the Thai economy fell by 7.1%, those things are just not enough unless all you are trying to do is to confirm the state of play as of today.

Middle of the range is where I see the major currencies being in the short to mid, and long term. In the short term it means some currencies still have to gain significantly against others and vice versa, eg, Pound to Euro. So yes get out whatever text book is used, look for a mean/median value and that's where it will be in 3, 5 or 7 years time. I think the pound is around that mark against the dollar already but may stengthen a little.

Against the Thai bt, I have to admit no idea anymore, and if I was a betting man it's a race I'd avoid. But ok, as a sporting bet I'll go with a short term of 45 -60, 1 year 55 -75, 3 year 60 -65, 5 year 60-65. It's really impossible to tell just how far the bt will fall, but weaken it must and that will be 'engineered' one way or another, and I suspect the economy is going to be in such a state that there will be a devaluation anyway. But let me stress, it's a rider less horse and who knows.

[cocopops]

An interesting bit of reading (or maybe rubbish) about China - US. In as much as it affects US$ would have a relation to GBP.

Only read it as I saw other articles (Faber + guy in bowtie) about a possible US$ crash end of 2009 - beg. 2010.

Anyone with more knowledge about US-China economies feel free to comment.

Possible Hyperinflation in China

It's a complex piece that I have read twice now without truly understanding it so I'll let the economists and China watchers comment. But this is not the first time the collapse of USD has been raised in articles with a forecast for similar timescales.

Worth noting that the sheer number of commentators predicting the death of the dollar makes this true for any timeframe, past or present!

[Naam]

An interesting bit of reading (or maybe rubbish) about China - US. In as much as it affects US$ would have a relation to GBP. Only read it as I saw other articles (Faber + guy in bowtie) about a possible US$ crash end of 2009 - beg. 2010. Anyone with more knowledge about US-China economies feel free to comment.

most of the stated facts are not rubbish but the conclusions are rather far-fetched.

[churchill]

Do you have any conclusions Naam ?

[cmsally]

If hyperinflation and the Chinese initiated drop of the US$ theory is feasible. (So far no one seems to think complete rubbish.) What would be the outcome at the other end of the scale ie the more modest ending?

[chiang mai]

Well I don't know nor do you!! the difference is I don't advise with conviction on the back of it. I was commenting on the supposition that the pound would suffer a reversal against the dollar.

For someone not trying to be argumentative you seem to be doing a good job, particularly as it was you that requested we stop any discourse between ourselves .

As to the main question, well what is the norm between the bt and the dollar then?, I'd hazard a guess at 1.50 -170.

Comparing the economies in a relative manner (something you haven't quite got to grips with viz a viz the state of the world economy vs UK, and relative size of GDPs - see your earlier postings), then indeed it's ab for dab- in fact there are some remarkable similarities.

You don't need to be a weather forecaster to know which way the wind is blowing CM!!

You see yet again, very lose verbiage and misdirection. I don't ADVISE, never have and never will, I offer my opinion and let people know what I intend to do or indeed have done and look for feed back on that basis, why sometimes I even change my mind as a result but only when the argument is sufficiently compelling, yours have not been so! When GBP/USD started to fall in 4Q08 I said that I was selling GBP in favor of USD and one or two people took me to task because the yield difference between the two currencies was significant and many people saw it as a loss leader. I felt very strongly at that time that GBP was in decline but I never once advised on that subject, despite making a substantial amount of money as a result. So did I offer my OPINION with conviction, I hope so because if I didn't then I probably wouldn't have believed it myself.

But let's talk about wind direction for a moment, which way is it blowing. Well if we look at the financial papers it tells us that GBP/USD is at 1.61 so you coming up with a range of 1.50 to 1.70 comes as no surprise and I commend you on your vision in this respect! But the issue is where will it be in three, five, seven and ten years time, for me that's what the interesting and analytical part of this thread is about and taking a snap shot solely as of today and commenting on that picture doesn't help answer those questions - answering those questions involves looking at the history and considering a range of issues and forming an opinion, testing it and then if you're brave enough, putting it up for public scrutiny - answering those questions is not about looking at todays numbers and putting them exactly in the middle of a range, like a baby cushioned between two very soft pillows and then justifying the result with statements such as there could be a run on the Baht or reporting that the Thai economy fell by 7.1%, those things are just not enough unless all you are trying to do is to confirm the state of play as of today.

Middle of the range is where I see the major currencies being in the short to mid, and long term. In the short term it means some currencies still have to gain significantly against others and vice versa, eg, Pound to Euro. So yes get out whatever text book is used, look for a mean/median value and that's where it will be in 3, 5 or 7 years time. I think the pound is around that mark against the dollar already but may stengthen a little.

Against the Thai bt, I have to admit no idea anymore, and if I was a betting man it's a race I'd avoid. But ok, as a sporting bet I'll go with a short term of 45 -60, 1 year 55 -75, 3 year 60 -65, 5 year 60-65. It's really impossible to tell just how far the bt will fall, but weaken it must and that will be 'engineered' one way or another, and I suspect the economy is going to be in such a state that there will be a devaluation anyway. But let me stress, it's a rider less horse and who knows.

That's excellent, now we're getting somewhere. OK, since you've shown me yours I'll show you mine!

If you look at one year USD/THB, the THB is clearly heading South again which is why GBP appears to be gaining on THB as USD weakens - I also note that BOT Foreign Reserves have now increased to 120 bill. I think that THB could continue or at least hold around its current levels in the short term and I'll give it a ceiling against GBP of no more than the high 50's, (that's my original number of 55 with a 10% margin for error) I dismiss entirely the idea that The BOT will devalue their currency.

Going into the medium term my bet remains that UK recovery will be long and slow and I see GBP falling against USD later this year and beyond and heading to around 1.45 by 2010 - what that means tyo the GBP/THB relationship is not clear since UK inflation and the Thai political situation remain very wild cards. But looking beyond those things to seven years I continue to see the effects of QE being a drag on the UK and baring something akin to the removal of USD as the worlds reserve currency, I think that means that THB will strengthen hence I continue to see THB in the 35/40 range at that time.

So all of the above is guesswork of course but it does have a basis to be broadly correct in the short term at least, the further out we go in time the less correct it is likely to be. But I think the important message is that the direction of GBP/THB over time is down and not up.

[Rinrada]

Just got 54.5 /pound for cash at K bank Secon Sq....getting better...stuff the 150 bt fees ....bai hae pon even ....ting so...

[Merangue]

Well I don't know nor do you!! the difference is I don't advise with conviction on the back of it. I was commenting on the supposition that the pound would suffer a reversal against the dollar.

For someone not trying to be argumentative you seem to be doing a good job, particularly as it was you that requested we stop any discourse between ourselves .

As to the main question, well what is the norm between the bt and the dollar then?, I'd hazard a guess at 1.50 -170.

Comparing the economies in a relative manner (something you haven't quite got to grips with viz a viz the state of the world economy vs UK, and relative size of GDPs - see your earlier postings), then indeed it's ab for dab- in fact there are some remarkable similarities.

You don't need to be a weather forecaster to know which way the wind is blowing CM!!

You see yet again, very lose verbiage and misdirection. I don't ADVISE, never have and never will, I offer my opinion and let people know what I intend to do or indeed have done and look for feed back on that basis, why sometimes I even change my mind as a result but only when the argument is sufficiently compelling, yours have not been so! When GBP/USD started to fall in 4Q08 I said that I was selling GBP in favor of USD and one or two people took me to task because the yield difference between the two currencies was significant and many people saw it as a loss leader. I felt very strongly at that time that GBP was in decline but I never once advised on that subject, despite making a substantial amount of money as a result. So did I offer my OPINION with conviction, I hope so because if I didn't then I probably wouldn't have believed it myself.

But let's talk about wind direction for a moment, which way is it blowing. Well if we look at the financial papers it tells us that GBP/USD is at 1.61 so you coming up with a range of 1.50 to 1.70 comes as no surprise and I commend you on your vision in this respect! But the issue is where will it be in three, five, seven and ten years time, for me that's what the interesting and analytical part of this thread is about and taking a snap shot solely as of today and commenting on that picture doesn't help answer those questions - answering those questions involves looking at the history and considering a range of issues and forming an opinion, testing it and then if you're brave enough, putting it up for public scrutiny - answering those questions is not about looking at todays numbers and putting them exactly in the middle of a range, like a baby cushioned between two very soft pillows and then justifying the result with statements such as there could be a run on the Baht or reporting that the Thai economy fell by 7.1%, those things are just not enough unless all you are trying to do is to confirm the state of play as of today.

Middle of the range is where I see the major currencies being in the short to mid, and long term. In the short term it means some currencies still have to gain significantly against others and vice versa, eg, Pound to Euro. So yes get out whatever text book is used, look for a mean/median value and that's where it will be in 3, 5 or 7 years time. I think the pound is around that mark against the dollar already but may stengthen a little.

Against the Thai bt, I have to admit no idea anymore, and if I was a betting man it's a race I'd avoid. But ok, as a sporting bet I'll go with a short term of 45 -60, 1 year 55 -75, 3 year 60 -65, 5 year 60-65. It's really impossible to tell just how far the bt will fall, but weaken it must and that will be 'engineered' one way or another, and I suspect the economy is going to be in such a state that there will be a devaluation anyway. But let me stress, it's a rider less horse and who knows.

That's excellent, now we're getting somewhere. OK, since you've shown me yours I'll show you mine!

If you look at one year USD/THB, the THB is clearly heading South again which is why GBP appears to be gaining on THB as USD weakens - I also note that BOT Foreign Reserves have now increased to 120 bill. I think that THB could continue or at least hold around its current levels in the short term and I'll give it a ceiling against GBP of no more than the high 50's, (that's my original number of 55 with a 10% margin for error) I dismiss entirely the idea that The BOT will devalue their currency.

Going into the medium term my bet remains that UK recovery will be long and slow and I see GBP falling against USD later this year and beyond and heading to around 1.45 by 2010 - what that means tyo the GBP/THB relationship is not clear since UK inflation and the Thai political situation remain very wild cards. But looking beyond those things to seven years I continue to see the effects of QE being a drag on the UK and baring something akin to the removal of USD as the worlds reserve currency, I think that means that THB will strengthen hence I continue to see THB in the 35/40 range at that time.

So all of the above is guesswork of course but it does have a basis to be broadly correct in the short term at least, the further out we go in time the less correct it is likely to be. But I think the important message is that the direction of GBP/THB over time is down and not up.

Reading the above it would seem you are linking the rise of Thai baht value to the Dollar becoming stronger against the pound, in part due to the QE being a long term factor.

If i am correct in this then have you factored in the QE that is in place on the American Dollar? Or are you also stating that the Baht is likely to rise dramatically against the dollar as well?

So far the UK is looking at 150 billion or so QE. America on the other hand is talking about more than a trillion.

Admitted my understanding is limited. I do not have the time or the interest to read overmuch from the financial reports on a daily basis.

[neil324]

Well I don't know nor do you!! the difference is I don't advise with conviction on the back of it. I was commenting on the supposition that the pound would suffer a reversal against the dollar.

For someone not trying to be argumentative you seem to be doing a good job, particularly as it was you that requested we stop any discourse between ourselves .

As to the main question, well what is the norm between the bt and the dollar then?, I'd hazard a guess at 1.50 -170.

Comparing the economies in a relative manner (something you haven't quite got to grips with viz a viz the state of the world economy vs UK, and relative size of GDPs - see your earlier postings), then indeed it's ab for dab- in fact there are some remarkable similarities.

You don't need to be a weather forecaster to know which way the wind is blowing CM!!

You see yet again, very lose verbiage and misdirection. I don't ADVISE, never have and never will, I offer my opinion and let people know what I intend to do or indeed have done and look for feed back on that basis, why sometimes I even change my mind as a result but only when the argument is sufficiently compelling, yours have not been so! When GBP/USD started to fall in 4Q08 I said that I was selling GBP in favor of USD and one or two people took me to task because the yield difference between the two currencies was significant and many people saw it as a loss leader. I felt very strongly at that time that GBP was in decline but I never once advised on that subject, despite making a substantial amount of money as a result. So did I offer my OPINION with conviction, I hope so because if I didn't then I probably wouldn't have believed it myself.

But let's talk about wind direction for a moment, which way is it blowing. Well if we look at the financial papers it tells us that GBP/USD is at 1.61 so you coming up with a range of 1.50 to 1.70 comes as no surprise and I commend you on your vision in this respect! But the issue is where will it be in three, five, seven and ten years time, for me that's what the interesting and analytical part of this thread is about and taking a snap shot solely as of today and commenting on that picture doesn't help answer those questions - answering those questions involves looking at the history and considering a range of issues and forming an opinion, testing it and then if you're brave enough, putting it up for public scrutiny - answering those questions is not about looking at todays numbers and putting them exactly in the middle of a range, like a baby cushioned between two very soft pillows and then justifying the result with statements such as there could be a run on the Baht or reporting that the Thai economy fell by 7.1%, those things are just not enough unless all you are trying to do is to confirm the state of play as of today.

Middle of the range is where I see the major currencies being in the short to mid, and long term. In the short term it means some currencies still have to gain significantly against others and vice versa, eg, Pound to Euro. So yes get out whatever text book is used, look for a mean/median value and that's where it will be in 3, 5 or 7 years time. I think the pound is around that mark against the dollar already but may stengthen a little.

Against the Thai bt, I have to admit no idea anymore, and if I was a betting man it's a race I'd avoid. But ok, as a sporting bet I'll go with a short term of 45 -60, 1 year 55 -75, 3 year 60 -65, 5 year 60-65. It's really impossible to tell just how far the bt will fall, but weaken it must and that will be 'engineered' one way or another, and I suspect the economy is going to be in such a state that there will be a devaluation anyway. But let me stress, it's a rider less horse and who knows.

That's excellent, now we're getting somewhere. OK, since you've shown me yours I'll show you mine!

If you look at one year USD/THB, the THB is clearly heading South again which is why GBP appears to be gaining on THB as USD weakens - I also note that BOT Foreign Reserves have now increased to 120 bill. I think that THB could continue or at least hold around its current levels in the short term and I'll give it a ceiling against GBP of no more than the high 50's, (that's my original number of 55 with a 10% margin for error) I dismiss entirely the idea that The BOT will devalue their currency.

Going into the medium term my bet remains that UK recovery will be long and slow and I see GBP falling against USD later this year and beyond and heading to around 1.45 by 2010 - what that means tyo the GBP/THB relationship is not clear since UK inflation and the Thai political situation remain very wild cards. But looking beyond those things to seven years I continue to see the effects of QE being a drag on the UK and baring something akin to the removal of USD as the worlds reserve currency, I think that means that THB will strengthen hence I continue to see THB in the 35/40 range at that time.

So all of the above is guesswork of course but it does have a basis to be broadly correct in the short term at least, the further out we go in time the less correct it is likely to be. But I think the important message is that the direction of GBP/THB over time is down and not up.

So your saying the THB will strengthen agaisnt just GBP. Or also USD,EUR etc. The problem i have with such a strong THB index is the effect on exports,investment and tourism will be devastating.

Edited May 31, 2009 by neil324

[mommysboy]

CM-

I enjoy a bit of banter, as does neil and merangue, so let's confirm :

YOU ARE HAVING A LAUGH AREN'T YOU?

[chiang mai]

With not much time left this morning (I'm off on holiday today) I seem to be having problems posting for some unexplained reason - I will however reply more fully when I get to where I'm going and will not leave this hanging. But in a nutshell, I see THB gaining against USD and GBP over time but not necessarily by similar amounts. If you look at the history of USD/THB it has gone from the peg level of 1.25 in 1997 its current 1.34, that's a gain of only 9 cents, expecting a strengthening of say 5 Baht to 1.30 over the next seven to ten years is entirely likely given the QE taking place in the US - that would put USD/THB in shooting distance of its old peg level. As for the balance needed to reach a 35 Baht Pound: well clearly the debt overhang from the current crisis will leave the Pound weakened - prior to the crash USD/GBP traded at 1.50, not too far away from where RBS predicts it will be at the end of this year!

As for the effects on tourism and exports: Thailand has shifted its focus away from USD over the past few years and in light of recent events I see them continuing along that course, as indeed will many other countries in the region - I also think that Thailand is likely to shift its export focus over time as the Asian market matures further. Let's not forget also we are talking about a time frame of seven to ten years and change over time is easy to absorb.

Edited May 31, 2009 by chiang mai