Impeachment Threat Over Buses

[Plus]

Senators have been digging it for a year and still haven't come up with any substantial proof of corruption. Either the deal is clean or they just want a cut so won't expose it.

There are plenty of people who'd love to paint Democrats corrupt, but Suthep should drill in people's minds over and over - either tell the public what is wrong or just shut up.

So far it's a lot of noise and half baked conspiracies over nothing.

I'd like to see what Pridiyathorn has to say on the matter. He wants to scrap the deal, afaik, but the reasons and details are not published yet. Even if he has something, he just made a lot of fuss over rice pledging scheme and put Democrats in a really tight place as they are going to be sued for billions if they don't follow through despite his very sound objections to the policy, and that's not even counting political problems of stepping on Bhum Jai's toes.

[filingaccount]

Oh, and don't confuse retail cars with wholesale purchases of buses.

Yet you yourself confuse buying MB buses with renting Chinese ones.

Senators who oppose this deal want to trim the cost on petty things like electronic ticketing and cctv cameras and rigging TOR to favour certain Chinese suppliers.

But what do they know! One alibaba search can give them some real ammunition. Thank god there's internet and all kinds of expert advice on it.

Really, do you want me to offer you a full report?

I have my opinion, facts and experience to back it up. Do you?

Someone asked for proof of cost of buses, mentioned Chinese ones, so yeah, a quick search yields results that are significantly lower priced that what has been proposed with the Thai deal. With a bit of time, research and putting it all together, the results will be even more competitive. If I can shoot holes into the 69 billion deal in a coupe of minutes, imagine what can be done by a team in a few weeks...

And if you think politicians (senators or otherwise) are savvy business people you are sorely mistaken. If you think this deal is graft free, think again. If you think that Thailand *needs* high end buses as opposed to low cost alternatives, please explain your reasoning.

And YES, thank god there ARE people who CRITICALLY look at things and not just say "oh well, since they do it, it must be proper/graft free/and completely transparent".

The price is FOB China. Internet price showing 30K to 80K us.

If you pay 30K, I don't think it comes with an engine. You will be paying closer to 80K for a useable bus.

Also, have you forgotten the import tax. Correct me if I am wrong, that is a few hundred percents.

It is said that 70% of the assembly is done in Thailand. I believe that tax is not a few hundred percent on spare parts (and yes should one import a whole bus into Thailand, one should import spare parts and do the assembly here). Do they pay more than maybe the excise tax? I'm sure someone who is familiar with motor vehicle import can figure it out.

Also 30k to 80k is a price per bus at 1 bus orders. Negotiations should yield a reduction in price with the volumes talked about (4,000 buses).

In closing I'd like to offer this thought.

Why would one have to show corruption for any deal? It would be simple to undercut the prices offered and that way there is no need for a "big investigation". Someone could easily just show up with a quote, in this case, for 4,000 buses at a (hypothetical) price of 20 billion Baht, make is very detailed and very public, et voila.

[hammered]

On the day this all rumbles on to the cabinet, the PAD launch their new party with the name "New Politics". It ios hardly coincidence they launch as the Dems get embroiled in a very unsavoury deal that had its roots in the Thaksin administration and tried hard to see light of day through Samak. Old politics at its worst. The PAD geezers know a thing or two about PR and working media.

[Plus]

Really, do you want me to offer you a full report?

I have my opinion, facts and experience to back it up.

So far I see irrelevant opinion - comments on buying instead of leasing, one Internet search passing as a fact, and experience of talking about something without even trying to get acquainted with the subject.

Someone asked for proof of cost of buses, mentioned Chinese ones, so yeah, a quick search yields results that are significantly lower priced that what has been proposed with the Thai deal.

There's no Thai deal to buy buses. You are comparing apples and oranges.

I think a locally built tour coach costs around 6-7 mil, btw. Just as a point of reference.

If I can shoot holes into the 69 billion deal in a coupe of minutes, imagine what can be done by a team in a few weeks...

There were several teams working out details of this project for years. You feel proud you can shoot holes in some imaginary bus purchase in two minutes. I can only imagine how much you can come with in a few weeks.

If some of it is relevant to bus leasing deal, please post it in this thread.

>>>

As Hammered said, all this fighting harms the political system as a whole. I, personally, think it's hopeless and they seriously need to overhaul completely.

I also think Bangkok needs buses. Now.

[filingaccount]

So far I see irrelevant opinion - comments on buying instead of leasing, one Internet search passing as a fact, and experience of talking about something without even trying to get acquainted with the subject.

And your argument is to argue that I am wrong... based on what?

And guess what? This is a discussion forum, ergo, it's open for discussion. So please stay on topic and refrain from personal attacks (veiled or otherwise).

And yes, someone has to buy the buses and lease them out. The buyer of the buses would pay in round numbers US$ 80,000 per bus. Even with full import taxes that comes to aprox. 8.5 million Baht. Then to lease out for a value of 17.25 million Baht sounds like a very profitable business.

Should I further detail this or are you able to follow the train of thought now?

There's no Thai deal to buy buses. You are comparing apples and oranges.

See above.

There were several teams working out details of this project for years. You feel proud you can shoot holes in some imaginary bus purchase in two minutes. I can only imagine how much you can come with in a few weeks.

And that's the best they can come up with? Please... it doesn't take a genius to figure out what is going on. If one was to completely hide or distort a deal of this magnitude it would most likely require a lot of work and great timing.

Then again, there is no need to prove anything one way or the other. One could work out a whole deal and present it properly to the public and government at a much much lower leasing rate than the 17.25 million value per bus (or alternatively offer the very latest hybrid buses fully kitted out with cash to spare) currently offered.

Make a basic and simple break down of the cost.

Right now the public has to pay 4,780 baht per day per bus. Or 143,400 per 30 day period for a full 10 years. With a passenger rate of 500 persons (10 full bus loads) using the bus per day per 30 day period, that means an average payment of 10 baht is needed just to cover costs of the leasing. Then you'd need to add insurance, fuel, staff, and basic maintenance. I'll let anyone who is interested work out the cost for the daily running of the bus.

If you think these costs are normal, then please inform yourself correctly.

I also think Bangkok needs buses. Now.

This I can agree with, but Bangkok does not need "high end" buses, and more importantly Bangkok needs cleaner air. Graft free hybrid buses would get 2 things done at the same time.

Oh, before you start asking me to prove <item>, or ask me to give accurate quotes of prices, or pointing out flaws in my English or pointing out a wrong choice of words, please consider the general message I am giving. The per bus price, leasing or not, is valued way too high. 17.25 million per bus is outrageous.

[xbusman]

I have friends building chinese busses in LA from knocked down kits. Using high end US seating (a major cost item in a coach) a US chassis and diesel engine, they are out the door at around $130k. Thats all US labor, pretty close to 2000 hours.

There is no good reason to pay the added expense of a monocoque style coach. A simple body on chassis will do the trick and properly maintained should have a 10 to 12 year life before the maintenance costs overcome the depreciation advantage.

The proposed coaches are NGV, that adds a lot of cost to a coach. Most of my work was in LPG as alternative fuel but I think NGV is better option here. It is less cost and significantly safer than LPG. That system could run up the cost significantly and for that many busses I would guess they are going to need new fueling stations. A fueling station to handle 2000 busses might run 15 million or so. For a coach, it takes about all night to fuel it with NGV. Faster is a problem which they might have made progress on over the past five years since I looked at it last.

So, considering the reduction in labor costs and shipping, also there is a coach seating industry here which will also greatly reduce costs, I would guesstimate a 13 meter coach with transit seating for about 35, NGV powered, automatic transmission (good reasons for this), jake brake, two axle six wheel, thermoking roof air, to be around 100K out the door. Maybe as high as 150K depending on options. Really you should have a great transit bus for under 500,000 baht out the door.

Spare stocking should run about 5% so about 25,000 baht per bus. I could build a pretty good operating inventory for around 1.5 million US.

I dont know how much other is built in. NGV fueling stations run about 15 million, I think you would need two or three of those if they dont exist. Does BMT have an engine shop for rebuilds? Those will run a few million with no dyno. Do they have a paint booth? Do they have a seat shop? You can meander through 100 million US setting up a complete support network but I would bet most of that is in place.

So at 4800 baht per bus per day, you pay the bus off in about 1000 days or under three years. Then pay seven years of interest. You financial types can plug in the numbers but it looks to me as thought they are paying an interest rate well in excess of 20%. Considering the risk involved with doing business with the Thai government, that might be about right. Only have to ask King Power about that.

Regards the maintenance, someone said about 8 million per bus over the life of the vehicle or about 50 billion baht. Thats about 1 billion dollars, for ten years. Given that 100 million should build the facility, thats around 900,000 million in labor and parts over 10 years, or 90 million budget per year, breaks down further to about 7.5 million dollars per month. Thats very very steep considering the cost of labor in Thailand.

My question is, what will the BMT do if they build an entire new transit system and support network. Hire and train drivers? They are pretty expensive for that and none too successful if driving on Ramkhamhaeng is any indication.

The costs are really over the top. I know how that stuff gets justified to people who have no idea what is involved but someone is being taken for a ride here. The dems know it but have not done their homework to know how.

[hammered]

This deal is about filling party coffers and fast and all the politcos know this. Anyone pulling it off will be well advantaged in buying a bunch of unbeatable MPs come next election. These MPs will run in constituencies and for parties where a bit of corruption wont affect their votes.

The plan goes back to TRT and then raised its head again when Samak wanted it and now has popped up as part of the baggage Newin has brought to the new coalition. Somewhere there is an irony in that. The party that will suffer most from it going through will be the Dems who rely more on voters who care about corruption. They are also the party that wont benefit from it as it is not under their portfolio. A normal manouver by the Democrats now would be to remove a coalition parner and replace them with an opposition party. However, that means Peau Thai and that means normal coalition politcs as we knew it before in the 90's isnt functioning. Another irony. The political system is becoming so compromised it is hardly working at all. That may be the aim of some.

PAD will be having a laugh at this as will Peau Thai although if it goes through the PAD will continue to laugh buit Peau Thai may not be so happy as the cash flows into BJT coffers and MPs start to need a bit of contract renegotiation.

[Journalist]

Senators have been digging it for a year and still haven't come up with any substantial proof of corruption. Either the deal is clean or they just want a cut so won't expose it.

There are plenty of people who'd love to paint Democrats corrupt, but Suthep should drill in people's minds over and over - either tell the public what is wrong or just shut up.

So far it's a lot of noise and half baked conspiracies over nothing.

Presumably there's no actual corruption yet, as the funds and kickbacks haven't started flowing.

And secondly, even Thai politicians aren't brazen enough to put it in writing in order to provide someone with convenient evidence. These things are done by word of mouth.

Do you really think there isn't any significant amount of leakage in this deal, Plus? On the basis of what you know about Thai politicians, nothwithstanding the lack of an incriminating paper trail.

If there is an element, then at what point does it become impossible to simply turn a blind eye to the leakage, millions of baht? tens of millions? I'd guess at probably the latter number.

[brahmburgers]

has this deal been opened up for bidding?

I've seen first hand where Thai municipal expenditures are not always well thought out, and messy fixes are required later. A couple examples:

A. several years ago the city fathers decided most of C.Rai downtown should have polished granite sidewalks. It goes without saying the granite supplier was probably a buddy of the governor. After it was installed, and the first rain came, it was found that polished granite is as slippery as glass when wet. The same contractor was hired to send workers out with hand-held grinders to scuff up the rock surfaces.

B. The city fathers decided recently that a new water supply system was needed. Ok, fair enough. However, the pipe appeared to be rather exotic flex pipe. The diameters seemed excessive (16" diameter to feed one regular soi was not uncommon), and the water tower was built tall, even though it was sited near a municipal-owned hill, which would have negated the need for such a tall tower (it could have been a reservoir tank sitting at ground level at the top of the hill).

I guess it's easy to be a 'Monday night quarterback' or 'second guesser', but the reason I'm mentioning these things is to shed light on the oft-times faulty planning that can happen in this fair land.

In the bus debate, I side with the folks who advocate searching for the smartest solution - taking in to account real costs and quality of product. The currently proposed plan appears way too expensive.

[Plus]

They trimmed the total cost by half already. Politicians who thought it would be gravy train for life had to be disappointed.

>>>

Daily rent has been trimmed by about 20% and now they are talking about little things, basically making sure buses won't be "high-end". Three teams were working on the costs - BMTA, Nesdac, and senators. Everybody complained about high costs but no one has found any way to reduce them, apart from proposing local production.

They are leasing the buses and don't have to pay for maintanance and service costs, which should be significant over ten years of daily use, that has to be done by the supplier.

The contract will be up for auction and any company that can deliver and maintain 4,000 buses for ten years can enter. Some say that the TOR are rigged in favour of particular Chinese suppliers but the job is not a small one, if you think about it.

They decided to lease because there's no way BMTA with 60 billion in debth can afford buying outright.

[Plus]

even Thai politicians aren't brazen enough to put it in writing in order to provide someone with convenient evidence. These things are done by word of mouth.

You mean to say that PTP and Red Truth are holding out some corruption charges that could damange the Democrats? Has it been snowing in Pattaya, too?

Newin was in still in PTP himself when the deal first came up. They know all the details.

[Crushdepth]

Peanut politics. When will Thai politicians take an interest in the welfare of their own bloody country? Makes me sick.

[Plus]

Now House panel on corruption decided to study the issue, too.

I wish someone would just come out and explained all the details, especiall why they need to pay 17million per bus, albeit over ten years. It's silly to speculate over this without any numbers, and it's the only matter that really bothers people, they don't need to dwell on NGV stations and bus conductors, just break down 17 mil, that's all.

And that goes for both parties - those in favour and against the project.

[brahmburgers]

Peanut politics. When will Thai politicians take an interest in the welfare of their own bloody country? Makes me sick.

Agreed. It's like arranging for polished granite sidewalks for a city where tens of thousands of outlying people still don't have their basic needs met. All Thai officialdom need to take a week-long seminar titled 'living within your means' led by a group of Scandinavians. If money was no object, then sure, the spiffiest buses in the catalog would be way cool. But thrift should be a key factor, thereby necessitating the most bang for the baht - and seriously looking at modest options for the supplying Bkk with buses for the next twenty years. A good quality product for 9 million baht per item, is smarter than a deluxe product for 17 million baht. Thailand is not Singapore. Reality needs to take a front seat.

[Plus]

We already have those orange Euro buses. Why the new ones should be worse than that?

I don't know if some of the new buses will be non-aircon. Maybe not.

Today there's a mention of an independent study that say they could pay 40% less. No details.

Abhisit says all the details should be made public (he's in Korea now).

Govt parties push the deal to benefit from corruption, opposition party wants to scrap it to slap the govt on the face. Dems want to preserve their clean image and not piss off BJ party (nice abbreviation).

Then there are senators and other independents. Too many cooks can always spoil the soup.

BMTA wants the bloody buses on the streets asap. Me too.

[animatic]

This deal is about filling party coffers and fast and all the politcos know this. Anyone pulling it off will be well advantaged in buying a bunch of unbeatable MPs come next election. These MPs will run in constituencies and for parties where a bit of corruption wont affect their votes.

The plan goes back to TRT and then raised its head again when Samak wanted it and now has popped up as part of the baggage Newin has brought to the new coalition. Somewhere there is an irony in that. The party that will suffer most from it going through will be the Dems who rely more on voters who care about corruption. They are also the party that wont benefit from it as it is not under their portfolio. A normal manouver by the Democrats now would be to remove a coalition parner and replace them with an opposition party. However, that means Peau Thai and that means normal coalition politcs as we knew it before in the 90's isnt functioning. Another irony. The political system is becoming so compromised it is hardly working at all. That may be the aim of some.

PAD will be having a laugh at this as will Peau Thai although if it goes through the PAD will continue to laugh buit Peau Thai may not be so happy as the cash flows into BJT coffers and MPs start to need a bit of contract renegotiation.

Yes coffer filling before the next election, ANY election...

he who pulls it off likely WINS the next election or at least is coalition leader...

If the bus cost is 8.5 million baht per,

that is the cost of buying a nice little 2 bedroom house with swimming pool

in a resort area like Samui or Phuket. Certainly seems like an over the top price

for a single transit bus...

Edited June 3, 2009 by animatic

[DaleBlue]

Peanut politics. When will Thai politicians take an interest in the welfare of their own bloody country? Makes me sick.

Agreed. It's like arranging for polished granite sidewalks for a city where tens of thousands of outlying people still don't have their basic needs met. All Thai officialdom need to take a week-long seminar titled 'living within your means' led by a group of Scandinavians. If money was no object, then sure, the spiffiest buses in the catalog would be way cool. But thrift should be a key factor, thereby necessitating the most bang for the baht - and seriously looking at modest options for the supplying Bkk with buses for the next twenty years. A good quality product for 9 million baht per item, is smarter than a deluxe product for 17 million baht. Thailand is not Singapore. Reality needs to take a front seat.

You are right.

Thailand is one of the poorest country in the world.

Yet, it also top the ranking when it come to rank the world richest.

I mean Thaksin, DON'T GET ME WRONG.

[Old Man River]

This deal is about filling party coffers and fast and all the politcos know this. Anyone pulling it off will be well advantaged in buying a bunch of unbeatable MPs come next election. These MPs will run in constituencies and for parties where a bit of corruption wont affect their votes.

The plan goes back to TRT and then raised its head again when Samak wanted it and now has popped up as part of the baggage Newin has brought to the new coalition. Somewhere there is an irony in that. The party that will suffer most from it going through will be the Dems who rely more on voters who care about corruption. They are also the party that wont benefit from it as it is not under their portfolio. A normal manouver by the Democrats now would be to remove a coalition parner and replace them with an opposition party. However, that means Peau Thai and that means normal coalition politcs as we knew it before in the 90's isnt functioning. Another irony. The political system is becoming so compromised it is hardly working at all. That may be the aim of some.

PAD will be having a laugh at this as will Peau Thai although if it goes through the PAD will continue to laugh buit Peau Thai may not be so happy as the cash flows into BJT coffers and MPs start to need a bit of contract renegotiation.

Yes coffer filling before the next election, ANY election...

he who pulls it off likely WINS the next election or at least is coalition leader...

If the bus cost is 8.5 million baht per,

that is the cost of buying a nice little 2 bedroom house with swimming pool

in a resort area like Samui or Phuket. Certainly seems like an over the top price

for a single transit bus...

The money is in the maintenance. 4,000 buses @ over THB 2,000 per bus per day. That is in excess of THB 8 million PER DAY for just the maintenance. That will buy a lot of politicians loyalty. No wonder the former PTP loved this project.

[hammered]

This deal is about filling party coffers and fast and all the politcos know this. Anyone pulling it off will be well advantaged in buying a bunch of unbeatable MPs come next election. These MPs will run in constituencies and for parties where a bit of corruption wont affect their votes.

The plan goes back to TRT and then raised its head again when Samak wanted it and now has popped up as part of the baggage Newin has brought to the new coalition. Somewhere there is an irony in that. The party that will suffer most from it going through will be the Dems who rely more on voters who care about corruption. They are also the party that wont benefit from it as it is not under their portfolio. A normal manouver by the Democrats now would be to remove a coalition parner and replace them with an opposition party. However, that means Peau Thai and that means normal coalition politcs as we knew it before in the 90's isnt functioning. Another irony. The political system is becoming so compromised it is hardly working at all. That may be the aim of some.

PAD will be having a laugh at this as will Peau Thai although if it goes through the PAD will continue to laugh buit Peau Thai may not be so happy as the cash flows into BJT coffers and MPs start to need a bit of contract renegotiation.

Yes coffer filling before the next election, ANY election...

he who pulls it off likely WINS the next election or at least is coalition leader...

If the bus cost is 8.5 million baht per,

that is the cost of buying a nice little 2 bedroom house with swimming pool

in a resort area like Samui or Phuket. Certainly seems like an over the top price

for a single transit bus...

The money is in the maintenance. 4,000 buses @ over THB 2,000 per bus per day. That is in excess of THB 8 million PER DAY for just the maintenance. That will buy a lot of politicians loyalty. No wonder the former PTP loved this project.

Many forget this goes goes back to TRT days wher eit was designed as a coffer filler. Then was pushed hard by Samak when he was relying on Newin. Now Abhisit is linked to Newin can he really stop it. Irony that PTP now oppose that which they tried to push through at the old high price and irony that Abhisit now may have to OK what he rightly called corrupt when in opposition. Nobody in opposition wants a government member to get such an advantage. BJT with huge funds could rip rural MPs from the ranks of PTP while the Dems would suffer electorally in their more urban areas where corruption tends to affect votes more than in the tied provincial constituencies. Interesting politics.

[Old Man River]

This deal is about filling party coffers and fast and all the politcos know this. Anyone pulling it off will be well advantaged in buying a bunch of unbeatable MPs come next election. These MPs will run in constituencies and for parties where a bit of corruption wont affect their votes.

The plan goes back to TRT and then raised its head again when Samak wanted it and now has popped up as part of the baggage Newin has brought to the new coalition. Somewhere there is an irony in that. The party that will suffer most from it going through will be the Dems who rely more on voters who care about corruption. They are also the party that wont benefit from it as it is not under their portfolio. A normal manouver by the Democrats now would be to remove a coalition parner and replace them with an opposition party. However, that means Peau Thai and that means normal coalition politcs as we knew it before in the 90's isnt functioning. Another irony. The political system is becoming so compromised it is hardly working at all. That may be the aim of some.

PAD will be having a laugh at this as will Peau Thai although if it goes through the PAD will continue to laugh buit Peau Thai may not be so happy as the cash flows into BJT coffers and MPs start to need a bit of contract renegotiation.

Yes coffer filling before the next election, ANY election...

he who pulls it off likely WINS the next election or at least is coalition leader...

If the bus cost is 8.5 million baht per,

that is the cost of buying a nice little 2 bedroom house with swimming pool

in a resort area like Samui or Phuket. Certainly seems like an over the top price

for a single transit bus...

The money is in the maintenance. 4,000 buses @ over THB 2,000 per bus per day. That is in excess of THB 8 million PER DAY for just the maintenance. That will buy a lot of politicians loyalty. No wonder the former PTP loved this project.

Many forget this goes goes back to TRT days wher eit was designed as a coffer filler. Then was pushed hard by Samak when he was relying on Newin. Now Abhisit is linked to Newin can he really stop it. Irony that PTP now oppose that which they tried to push through at the old high price and irony that Abhisit now may have to OK what he rightly called corrupt when in opposition. Nobody in opposition wants a government member to get such an advantage. BJT with huge funds could rip rural MPs from the ranks of PTP while the Dems would suffer electorally in their more urban areas where corruption tends to affect votes more than in the tied provincial constituencies. Interesting politics.

Thanks. I meant PPP (and did forget it was a TRT project), but wrote PTP. Anyway, same same.

[Plus]

The reality is that they have to buy the buses one way or another and this particular project can be cleaned up, if there is a will.

At some point it's either accept it or put up with another ten years on Vietnam war era buses.

BMTA licensed bus operators offered about half of the rent price, but the English media doesn't mention if it's for new buses or the ones they operate now and are ready to provide for the new scheme.

All in all it's a perfect examle how "old politics" cannot function at all when it comes to governing.

[hammered]

The reality is that they have to buy the buses one way or another and this particular project can be cleaned up, if there is a will.

At some point it's either accept it or put up with another ten years on Vietnam war era buses.

BMTA licensed bus operators offered about half of the rent price, but the English media doesn't mention if it's for new buses or the ones they operate now and are ready to provide for the new scheme.

All in all it's a perfect examle how "old politics" cannot function at all when it comes to governing.

Yes. At some point polticians have to show they can do something that is in the national interest but doesnt actually result in them getting a pocket full of cash. That might not be quite yet however.

[Plus]

The country can't wait.

[hammered]

The country can't wait.

The people will probably be willing to wait. They have pretty much voted in corrupt politician after corrupt poltician for aeons as long as they get a nicer road, a loan, debt forgiveness etc. The country and everyone in it would I agree benefit a lot more without corruption. Maybe the only thing to bring it to a point where it wont be tolerated will be for it to gwet utterly out of control first. However, maybe it already is and yet still the same robber barons get reelected and seize control of more wealth creation schemes for themselves while disbursing the odd pitance to those who return them to office repeatedly. They sure aint going to allow those peopel to have any better education or real change in economic circumstance. That would wreck the up country feudal system where robber baron MPs who control whoel swathes of people lord it over everyone.

Until those provincial barons power is totally broken nothing will change for the better in Thailand. That is one reason why the red movement will not benfit anyone upcountry in any meaningful way until they make a formal break with PTP which is stacked full of these provincial baron kinds. Not that Im saying any of the other parties are necessarily any better.

[brahmburgers]

Is it about to go to a bidding process?

Tell me if I'm wrong, but the nature of bidding is: the gov't (or its authority) details what it needs. Then it opens the bidding process to qualified contractors.

It sounds like the hogs are ambling up to the trough with the project cost amounts already having been hammered out beforehand. If it's a no-bid contract (like many of Halliburton's for the Iraqi war effort) then perhaps the cost fixation makes better sense - though it's all a bit non-sensical - considering the estimated 8 million baht per day maintenance allowance. Is that 7 days per week, or just work-days? What happens if the maintenance program fails, and the buses are grounded - because they can't be fixed (lack of expertise/parts, or a mechanic's strike, etc). Will taxpayers get a refund? ha ha.

Also, it's known that bkk's current fleets of buses are in sad shape, but is that reason in itself that they're bleeding billions of baht? They're keeping old buses running - which obviously have high maintenance costs - though the parts and labor should be relatively cheap. Yet, BTA should be saving some dough by by not having bought new vehicles in past years.

Are there plentiful paying customers? Will there continue to be plentiful paying customers when new buses come on line, and fares increase? They say now there'll be a ceiling of 30 baht, but how reliable is that assertion by the bosses - especially as the years roll by - and it's found that customer revenue is not paying enough for the overpriced leased buses?

And what happens when half of Bkk is under a meter of standing water? ...in 12 years(?)

[DaleBlue]

How can you expect the poor Thai public to pay the 30 Baht bus fare?

Right now, even at 5 Baht, the poor Thai people still cannot afford to pay. The tax payer have been paying for their 5 Baht fare since Somak was the PM.

[Plus]

The people will probably be willing to wait

That's why I said "the country can't wait".

I don't care about political correctness, but "people" do not always keep the big picture in their minds. Infrastructure projects like this are absolutely necessary in the rat race that is globalisation.

Current bus fleet is an eyesore that permanently fixes the image of a third world country in anybody's eyes, from investors to tourists, and it's not the third world charm that they think about.

And if the can't buy a bunch of buses, what hope there is for 200km of skytrain/mrt extentions? What kind of message does it send to companies and countries that want to participate in that?

Pattaya fiasco was a one off political failure but here we are talking about structural incompetence of Thai state.

[Journalist]

Current bus fleet is an eyesore that permanently fixes the image of a third world country in anybody's eyes, from investors to tourists, and it's not the third world charm that they think about.

And if the can't buy a bunch of buses, what hope there is for 200km of skytrain/mrt extentions? What kind of message does it send to companies and countries that want to participate in that?

The state of the buses are probably one of the least things that fix investor's idea that Thailand is third world. There's a whole list of other third world issues preceding the buses.

Top of that list is......poor corporate governance. (And the bus issue is symbolic of that)

The investors don't carer about the buses. They use hotel Mercedes to get around.

The problem isn't that the country can't buy buses. It can, and it can afford to do so. What it doesn't have to do is procure a bus fleet and also enrich the politicians who sign the deal.

How do western conglomerates feel about Thailand wrestling with its corruption issues to the extent that they may not have to bribe Thai managers so much and breach the FCPA (or their country's equivalent Law)?....I don't think they object to that.

I'm not sure what you're saying. But you seem to be saying that the physical need for the buses is more important than the principle of an element of embezzlement related to their purchase. Is that correct?

Edited June 4, 2009 by Journalist

[Plus]

I'm saying that they can't buy a bunch of bloody buses. Don't care what the reasons.

>>>

I don't want to speak on behalf of the investors. Generally they are prepared for some level of corruption, as long as things move alone. Guys who wanted to sell these buses have been waiting for over a year and now we are back to square one - thirty days to study wether to buy or to lease.

I bet the bus company thinks "could somebody just take the money and make it happen?"

Companies that want to invest in mass transit rail projects can't be very happy with this endless saga either. Perhaps they also look at case studies of Germans who built Don Mueang tollway or Chinese who built Hopewell pillars.

The next argument I expect is that "Thaksin made things happen". Yes, he did. Unfortunately the way they "happened" brought his downfall, too, so that didn't work even in the mid term - he had less than five productive years before everything went south.

Edited June 4, 2009 by Plus

[catmac]

I'm saying that they can't buy a bunch of bloody buses. Don't care what the reasons.

Of course they can "buy a bunch of bloody buses" if they wanted to, there's no law against it, is there?

What you are arguing in favour of, is that we should close our eyes to the blatant corruption underlying this deal. Dear Plus, for years you have exposed the corruption that was happening under Thaksin, sad that just because your colour of snouts are now at the trough, you have lost your enthusiasm for honesty and decency. Just close our eyes for the sake of expediency!