G B P Warning For Brits; Possible Sterling Crisis !

[bungy007]

I've listened to various expats forecast a slump of the baht for the past three years. They claimed its being propped artificially by this method or that institution.

It really hasn't done anything but strengthen in that period. I'm not convinced the baht is weak at all. I'm not optimistic it'll do anything but strengthen vis a vis the buck or pound.

Have to say that I agree with you. The Uk has been seriously flawed in its financial stratergy for many years. Exporting jobs and technology to the third world was always a short term bounce with a long term throat cutting in the offing! Shame

[TAWP]

Less British tourists = I'm happy.

I love British pubs, if only half of the people visiting them...didn't.

Are you sure you are spelling your name right, I think you are missing a T

With a quote like that "TAWP" I'd stay away from the Brit pubs if I were you. We are all affected by the economic downturn in one way or another and 'Bullshit" like that is not needed.

Hey, I'm just calling it as I see it.

And many of the staff in the places around here would agree, far too many drunken slobs that are very touchy-feely from the two island nation...

Add to that that the only people every to try to pick a fight with me or friends in all these years...have been British.

Some are great, have British friends. But they can be here even if the GBP crumbles.

[skinnygoat]

dont worry!!!!!!! the thai baht is going nowhere but down the drain too, with the state of tourism and the greedy thais putting prices up and not down! so all will level out. the british pound has got a lot better chance of recovering than the thai baht will have in the future for sure!!!!

[roamer]

If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians.

Warren Buffet.

[BusyBee123]

'Add to that that the only people every to try to pick a fight with me or friends in all these years...have been British'

yawn, funny i've never had anyone try to pick a fight with me maybe it's just your attitude? just a thought

[Scott]

Let's try to keep this thread on track. It's about the Pound, not about the Brits as people.

Like someone mentioned, I too, like British Pubs and I sometimes wish there were less PEOPLE there, since sometimes it's hard to get a place to sit.

The significance of the value of the Pound has an impact on a lot of people in Thailand and a lot of them on ThaiVisa.

[Oberkommando]

But the stats that caught my eye this past week were the two "awards", one for being the most prolific users of cocaine in Europe and second for being the country with the highest rate of violence, staggering. All of that suggests to me...

Thailand has its own "awards". Biggest methamphetamine users, one of the worst road traffic fatality rates in the World, gun violence and murder etc.

So let's not get carried away with fantasies of the decline of British society when other countries, including this one, have their fair share of problems but seem to be getting along.

[chiang mai]

dont worry!!!!!!! the thai baht is going nowhere but down the drain too, with the state of tourism and the greedy thais putting prices up and not down! so all will level out. the british pound has got a lot better chance of recovering than the thai baht will have in the future for sure!!!!

Hmm, and my pig is waiting in the hanger with it's engines idling, almost ready for take off!

[chiang mai]

But the stats that caught my eye this past week were the two "awards", one for being the most prolific users of cocaine in Europe and second for being the country with the highest rate of violence, staggering. All of that suggests to me...

Thailand has its own "awards". Biggest methamphetamine users, one of the worst road traffic fatality rates in the World, gun violence and murder etc.

So let's not get carried away with fantasies of the decline of British society when other countries, including this one, have their fair share of problems but seem to be getting along.

Absolutely agreed, the difference is that Thailand has had a massive narcotics problem ever since the late 1960's, the drug usage issue in the UK is a relatively new phenomenon by comparison. Whilst I expect Thai statistics to be relatively comparable with its neighbors in respect of road deaths, gun violence and murder etc, I also expect that the UK would do the same. But it has not, it has elevated its standing to near the top of the poor performance league.

[Thai at Heart]

dont worry!!!!!!! the thai baht is going nowhere but down the drain too, with the state of tourism and the greedy thais putting prices up and not down! so all will level out. the british pound has got a lot better chance of recovering than the thai baht will have in the future for sure!!!!

Without wanting to be glib, this statement only deserves one word in response. "Why?"

[PatinBKk]

Pensions are screwed, which is going to screw the retired so they claim social security which in turn goes to screw that system. The fundamental haven't added up for years and the writing was on the wall well before this crisis.

The fact is that you cannot have people spending so long in education and so long in retirement which leaves only a limited time in the productive working environment. People are not going to start dying younger nor are they going to start going to work younger, so the only two options are either to tax them more or make them work longer, in terms of raising the retirement age. The answer is simple, higher taxes and a higher retirement age.

Indeed.

Tens of thousands of Brits who own a second- or retirement home overseas, whether on Europe's mainland, Thailand or elsewhere are in deep trouble. In Spain thousands of Brits don't know how to cope with the situation, especially also because real estate is way down and there are no buyers.

The Spanish coast and islands are filled with apartments and villas for sale, totaling more than a million houses.

Personally I know of a couple who had to sell their villa. Asking price was € 580.000.-. They sold for € 300K

And that's just one example; most stories aren't even known or told...

LaoPo

Obviously the asking price was way out of line....how much did they pay for it is the important factor...lets assume somewhere in the middle at 440,000 and they were then on £=1.6 euro...now they sell at 300,000 and convert back at 1.1euro=£ almost no loss...of course except for legal fees etc, but less not forget properties in the U.K have tumbled 30% so a £275,000 property 4 years ago cou;ld be snapped up for 180,000.....so with this in mind, that couple have faired very well and saved a large sum of money....

[chiang mai]

Pensions are screwed, which is going to screw the retired so they claim social security which in turn goes to screw that system. The fundamental haven't added up for years and the writing was on the wall well before this crisis.

The fact is that you cannot have people spending so long in education and so long in retirement which leaves only a limited time in the productive working environment. People are not going to start dying younger nor are they going to start going to work younger, so the only two options are either to tax them more or make them work longer, in terms of raising the retirement age. The answer is simple, higher taxes and a higher retirement age.

Indeed.

Tens of thousands of Brits who own a second- or retirement home overseas, whether on Europe's mainland, Thailand or elsewhere are in deep trouble. In Spain thousands of Brits don't know how to cope with the situation, especially also because real estate is way down and there are no buyers.

The Spanish coast and islands are filled with apartments and villas for sale, totaling more than a million houses.

Personally I know of a couple who had to sell their villa. Asking price was € 580.000.-. They sold for € 300K

And that's just one example; most stories aren't even known or told...

LaoPo

Obviously the asking price was way out of line....how much did they pay for it is the important factor...lets assume somewhere in the middle at 440,000 and they were then on £=1.6 euro...now they sell at 300,000 and convert back at 1.1euro=£ almost no loss...of course except for legal fees etc, but less not forget properties in the U.K have tumbled 30% so a £275,000 property 4 years ago cou;ld be snapped up for 180,000.....so with this in mind, that couple have faired very well and saved a large sum of money....

The math is correct but the practicalities of your example are rubbish. But none of this relates to the potential failure of Sterling so let's move on.

[johnwills]

Well According to the IMF, the recession in the UK will be over by Christmas, so that bodes well for Sterling. So I guess it all depends on who you want to believe.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle6670277.ece

[TAWP]

yawn, funny i've never had anyone try to pick a fight with me maybe it's just your attitude? just a thought

Sure, that would be an excellent observation, if you then fail to realize that people from another 184 didn't have a problem with my attitude.

And I didn't say all British people, I said some drunken slobs that happened to be British.

Cutting out the lowest 10% isn't a bad thing...and keeping the good. Anyway, off-topic...

[astral]

Not surprising after Gordon Brown sold the family jewels (gold reserves) when he was Chancellor..

[roamer]

Sterling may well be in for a rough time but there are also other currencies with an uncertain future and certainly I would suggest that the Thai baht is one of those. Granted Thailand has strong foreign reserves at present but one thing we can be sure of is that this economic crisis has bought with it the wind of change. For example, many multinational companies will have been using this period to reassess their manufacturing plans for the future. Whereas once Thailand attracted a lot of investment for manufacturing especially in the heavy engineering and automotive businesses, this may no longer continue to be the case. Not least is the cost of production in Thailand quite high, but other nations have emerged that that may prove far more attractive to investors than Thailand. The high baht is only one factor, the continuing political instability won't have gone unnoticed by those multinationals who are continually reassessing their options. The simple fact is Thailand is no longer an attractive investment for many industries, but one that is subject to increasing bureaucracy and corruption and higher costs, also the skills base does not appear to be getting any wider and certainly the English skills are not becoming any more proficient.

Given the the over reliance of the importance of exports to Thailand's GDP there may be times ahead when Thailand is going to start to struggle, nothing stays the same forever and this country and its successive failed governments and policies, lack of forward planning, innovative thinking, inadequate education and social divisions hardly leads me to believe that the foundations for its continued success are any stronger or cohesive than the foundations of the crumbling condominiums one sees around the country.

As poor as the present outlook might be for Sterling it nevertheless has the foundations and institutions that will ensure its survival, its been there before and will no doubt come out the other end, bruised and battered but intact. I think Thailand is too much of the new kid on the block to be able to make the same assumptions about the strength of the Thai baht.

[Mai Krap]

I for one will be avoiding all English Pubs and Breakfasts till the Pound gets better. Its not like the Brits weren't already crying in their beers and teas about the exchange rate before any of this. I already have to avoid a few people who do not seem to realize I don't give a hoot about the English economy nor do I care to listen to another piss artist bitch and moan about America.

[quiksilva]

So for those us who get paid in THB and are looking at a Christmas trip back to Blighty, when should we be changing our cash?

[chiang mai]

Sterling may well be in for a rough time but there are also other currencies with an uncertain future and certainly I would suggest that the Thai baht is one of those. Granted Thailand has strong foreign reserves at present but one thing we can be sure of is that this economic crisis has bought with it the wind of change. For example, many multinational companies will have been using this period to reassess their manufacturing plans for the future. Whereas once Thailand attracted a lot of investment for manufacturing especially in the heavy engineering and automotive businesses, this may no longer continue to be the case. Not least is the cost of production in Thailand quite high, but other nations have emerged that that may prove far more attractive to investors than Thailand. The high baht is only one factor, the continuing political instability won't have gone unnoticed by those multinationals who are continually reassessing their options. The simple fact is Thailand is no longer an attractive investment for many industries, but one that is subject to increasing bureaucracy and corruption and higher costs, also the skills base does not appear to be getting any wider and certainly the English skills are not becoming any more proficient.

Given the the over reliance of the importance of exports to Thailand's GDP there may be times ahead when Thailand is going to start to struggle, nothing stays the same forever and this country and its successive failed governments and policies, lack of forward planning, innovative thinking, inadequate education and social divisions hardly leads me to believe that the foundations for its continued success are any stronger or cohesive than the foundations of the crumbling condominiums one sees around the country.

As poor as the present outlook might be for Sterling it nevertheless has the foundations and institutions that will ensure its survival, its been there before and will no doubt come out the other end, bruised and battered but intact. I think Thailand is too much of the new kid on the block to be able to make the same assumptions about the strength of the Thai baht.

A good post.

[LaoPo]

Let's try to keep this thread on track. It's about the Pound, not about the Brits as people.

Like someone mentioned, I too, like British Pubs and I sometimes wish there were less PEOPLE there, since sometimes it's hard to get a place to sit.

The significance of the value of the Pound has an impact on a lot of people in Thailand and a lot of them on ThaiVisa.

Indeed it will:

In 2007: around 750.000 tourists from the UK.

This number consisted of ca. 514.000 males and 233.000 females

They staid on average 14,77 days in Thailand

INTERNATIONAL TOURIST ARRIVALS.

Year 1998-2007

click on:

International Tourist Arrivals by Country of Residence - year 2007

and/or:

Profile of International Tourist Arrivals

and/or:

Average Length of Stay of International Tourist Arrivals

From: http://www.tourism.go.th/index.php?option=...0&Itemid=25

LaoPo

[Chunkton]

Well According to the IMF, the recession in the UK will be over by Christmas, so that bodes well for Sterling. So I guess it all depends on who you want to believe.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle6670277.ece

Hmm, and who owns the IMF then? Where were their predictions when the crash started...nowhere just like their credibility. They were the twits that stuffed up Asia back in the currency crash, in fact that idiot Geitner was involved in that mess as well.

Most of what I'm reading is predicting an even bigger crash this year. So where will the useless stimulus money come from then? Out of thin air with more QE, all that extra money floating around should get the inflation rolling eventually.

The fundamentals just aren't good with rising unemployment, crushing government debt, no local industry, the housing crash etc. I understand the next wave of bankster suss loans will start to come into play next year as the interest rates get all hiked up whch should lead to a bigger property crash, this time with commercial as well.

Would suggest keep away from both dollars and pounds. Brown and Obama have done a magnificent job of bankrupting their countries. The obedient populations just sit back and let them. And of course when Brown sold off the UK gold the twit even sold it cheap.

If you really want to get confident have a look at who owns the Bank of England and the Federal Reserse, institutions neck deep in the current mess. Yjey are not government, they are private institutions. Google who the real operators and power behind the scenes are.

Cheers...

[Orac]

If you really want to get confident have a look at who owns the Bank of England and the Federal Reserse, institutions neck deep in the current mess. Yjey are not government, they are private institutions. Google who the real operators and power behind the scenes are.

Cheers...

Chunkton,

Having just googled as suggested in am a bit confused but think i will go with the Bank of Englands own position on who they are owned by:

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/about/parliament/index.htm

Cheers

Orac

[roamer]

If I had to go to bed and place a suitcase underneath that bed, filled with the currency of my choice, that would be all I had when I woke up in five years time I would say that sterling would be pretty much high on my list of choices, as would be yen or the dollar. It certainly wouldn't be the Thai baht.

So come on then what would you like to have in your suitcase ?

[KevinBloodyWilson]

If I had to go to bed and place a suitcase underneath that bed, filled with the currency of my choice, that would be all I had when I woke up in five years time I would say that sterling would be pretty much high on my list of choices, as would be yen or the dollar. It certainly wouldn't be the Thai baht.

So come on then what would you like to have in your suitcase ?

I may live to regret it, but I just moved some dosh offshore for a long-term investment. I chose 40% UKP and 60% USD.

If the OP is right (and I don't think he is), and you hear a scream from the general direction of Bangkok, it might be me.

Kev

[chiang mai]

If I had to go to bed and place a suitcase underneath that bed, filled with the currency of my choice, that would be all I had when I woke up in five years time I would say that sterling would be pretty much high on my list of choices, as would be yen or the dollar. It certainly wouldn't be the Thai baht.

So come on then what would you like to have in your suitcase ?

Waking up in say seven to ten years time, I would be very happy with a suitcase full of Thai Baht.

[Oberkommando]

If I had to go to bed and place a suitcase underneath that bed, filled with the currency of my choice, that would be all I had when I woke up in five years time I would say that sterling would be pretty much high on my list of choices, as would be yen or the dollar. It certainly wouldn't be the Thai baht.

So come on then what would you like to have in your suitcase ?

Waking up in say seven to ten years time, I would be very happy with a suitcase full of Thai Baht.

There may not even be a Thailand in seven to ten years time.

Pessimistic I know, but the writing is on the wall.

[mommysboy]

Bloomberg: Britain Currency to Crumble

Tuesday, July 7, 2009 3:33 PM

By: Elaine Barr

Harvard professor Niall Ferguson sees the handwriting on the wall with Britain's currency, and he doesn't like what he sees.

"The probability of a real sterling crisis is around one in three, and the probability of major tax hikes and cuts in public spending is roughly one in one," the British financial historian told Bloomberg Markets.

The deterioration of the U.K.'s public finances already has prompted Standard & Poor's to warn on May 21 that the country could lose its AAA rating.

Another ominous sign: Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling said the government's 2009 deficit would hit 12.4 percent of GDP.

Nigel Lawson, former chancellor of the Exchequer under Margaret Thatcher from 1983 to 1989, agreed with Fergueson's outlook. He said Britons can expect to face spending cuts in coming years in all areas, including Social Security and healthcare.

"Our public finances are easily the worst we've ever had in peacetime. The amount of borrowing the government will have to do as a result of the deficit is very worrying," Lawson said.

Andrew Bosomworth of Pacific Investment Management Co. goes even further with his prediction. "In a worst-case scenario, there could be a run on the currency."

To head off a crisis, Lawson urged Britain's next leaders to make deep cuts in government spending right away.

Ferguson sees no alternative to severe cuts.

"It has to happen. This kind of red ink implies both spending cuts and tax hikes that could make the 1980s look like a teddy bear's picnic," he said.

Source: Bloomberg/Moneynews.com

http://moneynews.newsmax.com/financenews/s.../07/232876.html

LaoPo

Good reading but rather oddly patched together , and the headline is misleading, it's not probable at all.

S+P placed it on watch for a while, and indicated a downgrade is possible unless there are stringent cuts and these are clearly going to happen.

A downgrade wouldn't have much impact anyway, Thailand has one already, and looks set to pick up another.

As usual the fact that all major economies are up the creek goes by the wayside!

[mommysboy]

If I had to go to bed and place a suitcase underneath that bed, filled with the currency of my choice, that would be all I had when I woke up in five years time I would say that sterling would be pretty much high on my list of choices, as would be yen or the dollar. It certainly wouldn't be the Thai baht.

So come on then what would you like to have in your suitcase ?

Waking up in say seven to ten years time, I would be very happy with a suitcase full of Thai Baht.

There may not even be a Thailand in seven to ten years time.

Pessimistic I know, but the writing is on the wall.

Pessimistic! Doomsday I'd say- I don't think the weight of the world's economic woes could result in the land being submerged.

In a sense I have that suitcase of sterling, in the shape of travellers cheques, and am quite happy with this. I think sterling will sink to 50 in the short term as the bt grows ruinously stronger.

[Orac]

If I had to go to bed and place a suitcase underneath that bed, filled with the currency of my choice, that would be all I had when I woke up in five years time I would say that sterling would be pretty much high on my list of choices, as would be yen or the dollar. It certainly wouldn't be the Thai baht.

So come on then what would you like to have in your suitcase ?

Waking up in say seven to ten years time, I would be very happy with a suitcase full of Thai Baht.

There may not even be a Thailand in seven to ten years time.

Pessimistic I know, but the writing is on the wall.

Pessimistic! Doomsday I'd say- I don't think the weight of the world's economic woes could result in the land being submerged.

In a sense I have that suitcase of sterling, in the shape of travellers cheques, and am quite happy with this. I think sterling will sink to 50 in the short term as the bt grows ruinously stronger.

Whether it be Baht or Sterling, at least the suitcase itself might have some value if it has not been nicked while you were sleeping

[chiang mai]

If I had to go to bed and place a suitcase underneath that bed, filled with the currency of my choice, that would be all I had when I woke up in five years time I would say that sterling would be pretty much high on my list of choices, as would be yen or the dollar. It certainly wouldn't be the Thai baht.

So come on then what would you like to have in your suitcase ?

Waking up in say seven to ten years time, I would be very happy with a suitcase full of Thai Baht.

There may not even be a Thailand in seven to ten years time.

Pessimistic I know, but the writing is on the wall.

Pessimistic! Doomsday I'd say- I don't think the weight of the world's economic woes could result in the land being submerged.

In a sense I have that suitcase of sterling, in the shape of travellers cheques, and am quite happy with this. I think sterling will sink to 50 in the short term as the bt grows ruinously stronger.

Nice to have you onboard at last.