Thailand's Loneliest Man

[mc2]

Prime Minister Abhisit needs to take action to prevent his popularity sliding any further

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva gave a characteristic response last Sunday to his declining popularity as measured against that of nemesis Thaksin Shinawatra. Opinion polls, he said, are a tool in a democracy, and so is the duty of political rivals to try to make inroads into each other's support base. Eloquent as usual, Abhisit did not seem to be worried. After all, this enemy is unlikely to engage him in a ballot-box showdown in the foreseeable future.

Although the two men have had reversing fortunes in popularity ratings, their support bases haven't seemed to shift. The latest Abac poll shows that Abhisit remains much more popular than Thaksin in the South, and is still more popular in Bangkok. Thaksin, of course, scores big in the North and Northeastern region. This is where Abhisit may need to worry about. Whereas the red-yellow divide is solidly unchanged, the PM has allowed Thaksin to steal up and overtake him in popularity. The poll results reflect two facts: The red-shirt movement remains firmly behind Thaksin, but Abhisit's alliance with the yellow shirts is wearing off.

Whether or not the poll results, which did not appear to worry Abhisit publicly, will have impact on his political moves remains to be seen. Abhisit's reconciliatory approaches haven't won a single red heart, but yellow sympathisers seem to be deserting him in droves. How to deal with the police chief issue is one of the cases in point. His reluctance to take a bold step regarding Pol General Patcharawat Wongsuwan hasn't made him any new friends. Keeping the national police chief in his post will satisfy the red shirts but won't give him any of their votes, whereas the incensed yellow shirts will become more and more estranged.

Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya is another example. Abhisit has managed to avoid a yellow uproar by keeping Kasit in his post, but some members of the People's Alliance for Democracy are still upset by the PM's failure to defend him wholeheartedly. On the other hand, the red shirts have been using the Kasit case to support their "Abhisit has a double standard" rallying cry.

Abhisit's popularity rating, according to the Abac poll, is now one percentage point below Thaksin's (32.9 per cent against 34). Although some may consider that a tie in polling terms, when a 3-5 per cent margin of error is taken into account, the numbers represent a big change from March. At that time, the PM enjoyed a more than 50 per cent rating whereas Thaksin's was barely above 20 per cent.

Other Abac numbers from this poll confirm what we already know. The poorer a voter is, the more likely he is to support Thaksin. The higher the education, the more likely the voter is to support Abhisit. Six months after the PM made his swearing-in day pledge to bridge the divide and promote harmony, nothing has changed for the better, and while we can't blame Abhisit for that, he is risking becoming Thailand's loneliest man.

Bangkok, where a large number of PAD supporters live, should be Abhisit's main concern. He still leads Thaksin by five per cent in the city, but things will get very complicated if his uneasy ties with the PAD are severed. The Democrats can't lose Bangkok if they want to hold on to power, and it's as simple as that.

But in the big picture, the source of Thailand's prolonged, fundamental problem remains. Worse, the regional divide - as demonstrated by the Democrats' unbreakable hold of the South and the "non-Democrats" domination" of the North - used to only destabilise governments but is now a factor for civil strife. In the past, the divide affected only politicians; now it has shattered national harmony and we are a few major conflicts away from really threatening the nationhood.

Wealth distribution may be one of the factors causing the divide, but that does not quite explain why many poverty-stricken southern provinces have remained loyal to the Democrats. There must be a bigger cause for the North-South polarity. Or it can be as simple as political parties' inability to reach out equally to all regions. Our political parties have evolved through takeovers and package sales. For example, if you want to win in a region, it's easier to simply co-opt a group of politicians who can guarantee seats there. Or if a group of politicians can't lose in a region and want to increase their fortunes, they stick together and wait for the highest bidder. This is how Thaksin made his political inroads, although he has become an undisputed darling of the Northeast and a party bearing his name can now field an underdog against a big rival in the region and still win.

Under the current circumstances, a mountain stands before Abhisit if he wants to get his rating back to the March level. His advantage is that he remains far above any plausible alternative. But what happened between March and this month is the strongest warning that there is no room for complacency.

-- The Nation today

[losworld]

It's not that difficult he should be appointing a "special" Cabinet position solely for northeasterners and their grievances preferably by someone from the northeast. Be proactive and gain support in these regions. There is nothing to lose as the southern and Bangkok voters will not rally to Thaksin.