The Stock Market

[flying]

"We'll let the party continue, I am just not going to partake of the tainted food"

I know it comes across as sour grapes but really it is not for me.

I have not traded stocks in a loooong time.

But I have said before that I wish folks would just step away & let it fail.

But I also understand the desire to make $$ & don't begrudge anyone that.

The system is pooched/corrupt full of folks taking money from the less knowledgeable. By that I mean the poor saps who worked for 35 or more years putting money in a 401k or IRA indirectly investing without control. Yet the fund managers/brokers continue to live the life.

If all those folks could at least instruct their funds to withdraw from the gambling they would be better off.

Edited September 17, 2009 by flying

[zorro1]

Somebody is listening to him. Dow up over 100!! on good volume. 10,000 here we come done deal . This v recovery is unbelievably starting to play out. We keep smashing through turn points on the dow. 9616 gone. Most have short memories, we had the crash it was horrific, transfer of wealth has occurred and time to move on, looks like history wont repeat. Go you good thing!

hang on zorro now you are stretching things

You have been arguing in this thread that it doesnt matter about fundamentals because the market

is trading on " momentum and sentiment ". But oh dear....now you are starting become delusional ......

that is what happens with gambling addiction.

I dont think I have read any source whatsoever that genuinely believes

there is anything behind these movement except robots trading between each other

and i disagree with you that it is " good volume ".

the consumer is tapped out and can't afford to buy (witness the FHA default rates

in excess of 20%!) and those who DO buy anyway find themselves in a

financial position they cannot really afford and didn't think through.

Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Chrysler Group LLC, the U.S. automaker run by Fiat SpA, said nationwide industry sales are off 19 percent so far this month after a government purchase- incentive program ended.

"We are going to see harsh reality in September," Sergio Marchionne, the chief executive officer of Fiat and Chrysler, said at the Frankfurt Motor Show. He described the U.S. industry results as a "disaster." Fritz Henderson, CEO of General Motors Co., said the market is "very weak" this month.

"We are going to see harsh reality in September,"

yes midas this is really harsh. Buy the way which way do I go to cashier , need to cash in serious chips. One of my goldies jumped 29% today. slowly switching a major part in to goldies now. Its so easy,just buy into sectors that are on fire . I just dumped uranium which has been sensational last 5 months but spot price down.

[midas]

"We are going to see harsh reality in September,"

yes midas this is really harsh. Buy the way which way do I go to cashier , need to cash in serious chips. One of my goldies jumped 29% today. slowly switching a major part in to goldies now. Its so easy,just buy into sectors that are on fire . I just dumped uranium which has been sensational last 5 months but spot price down.

He talking about car sales

Maybe you have forgotten this part of the equation but those companies

you are putting money into need to need to sell things

to customers ...........and they are not doing that so well at the moment

[Abrak]

Congratulations on the Dow passing the 50% up from its lows last night. The Thai SET has done rather more impressive 85% and you can still find stocks on 5x earnings.

Massive V shaped economic recovery. Bars packed, impossible to get a table at a decent restaurant etc..

[lannarebirth]

Congratulations on the Dow passing the 50% up from its lows last night. The Thai SET has done rather more impressive 85% and you can still find stocks on 5x earnings.

Massive V shaped economic recovery. Bars packed, impossible to get a table at a decent restaurant etc..

My wife received yesterday an unsolicited higher offer on a property she's already sold and received a deposit on. How's the red plate indicator looking?

[zorro1]

Must admit my calls are sensational

Im calling a reversal tonight ........But only cause I bought lots of GOLD

Thats good and not greedy and I feel better because gold is just gold. Not like Im taking money off anyone. Is it?

[midas]

Just don't buy stocks and shares in US car rental companies for a while

You can drive a brand new car for the price of insurance only for 60 days.

Just buy a GM car and be "dissatisfied" with it between 31 and 59 days after the purchase.

Don't trade in another vehicle, and you'll have to pay the registration fees, but even sales tax is refunded.

You can't wreck it, you can't lease it, you can't put more than 4,000 miles on it (in two months that's unlikely),

you can't have more than $200 in damage to it, you can't trash it and you must provide insurance

for it but heh, this is a hel_l of a deal - and a real economic stimulus.

After all, driving a free new car for two months is a real "steal", right?

http://www.gm.com/guarantee/terms-and-cond..._60DayGuarantee

[Abrak]

My wife received yesterday an unsolicited higher offer on a property she's already sold and received a deposit on. How's the red plate indicator looking?

Looking good, 24% down last year, down 35% for the first 8 months but only down 8% in August.

[jcon]

The Thai SET has done rather more impressive 85% and you can still find stocks on 5x earnings.

I don't trade the SET or really track it much but yes it has had a massive rally since the lows - and if one was in on the rally - I think some people could have made their entire year - or two - or three - or five. Huge rally. Frankly I'm impressed, because I always thought (still think) that the SET is a joke... but whatever works....

I know a guy at Citadel Chicago who has made his entire career in from just March until now - career as in end of year - bonus - retirement - 36 years old. The rally has been massive, and for those who participated... gains gains gains. I don't know what will happen next, but what has happened in the past few months is nothing short of amazing. I only participated from mid-May to mid-Aug (on the Hang Seng) and it was ridiculous - for a time it was basically anything with the name "China" and "Bio" or "Energy" and fortunes were being made.... now I see a lot of punters in the market - a ton, actually... so I've been out since mid-Aug just waiting and seeing...

I think in the near future currency trades are going to be the fortune-makers - but I don't know jack about currency trading and I don't want to blow myself out doing something idiotic... But I will follow the currency markets with interest.

[Abrak]

I don't trade the SET or really track it much but yes it has had a massive rally since the lows - and if one was in on the rally - I think some people could have made their entire year - or two - or three - or five. Huge rally. Frankly I'm impressed, because I always thought (still think) that the SET is a joke... but whatever works....

You know it is a totally crazy market still half its level 15 years ago. Last year the most mindboggling thing happened to me - I bought a stock with in excess of 20% ROE roe every year for the past 5 years, a baht of cash on the balance sheet, 3x earnings 60% of book at bt2.2 and what happened - it fell 33%. How is that possible?

[zorro1]

Tonight IMO will be a leading indicator. Friday night = weekend profit taking/ trader exists , Sept supposed to be crap, hence we should see some red. But if we see green then its odds on march straight to 10,000!

bit confused about gold though, it seems to be following the Dow. Any thoughts? I'm heavily invested but only cause its the hot sector , that's the only reason.

[Abrak]

Tonight IMO will be a leading indicator. Friday night = weekend profit taking/ trader exists , Sept supposed to be crap, hence we should see some red. But if we see green then its odds on march straight to 10,000!

bit confused about gold though, it seems to be following the Dow. Any thoughts? I'm heavily invested but only cause its the hot sector , that's the only reason.

This isnt going to be much help but I owned gold for 18 months and this what I learnt.

(1) It is very good currency (i.e. cash) and a hedge against the dollar.

(2) Every other correlation is rubbish. Sometimes it is correlated with the Dow sometimes inverse, same applies to nominal interest rates, real interest rates, economic growth, inflation etc. It does act as a pretty good proxy for a fairly rubbish commodity as well.

(3) It is nice and shiny.

It is also very dangerous to own (I doubt this applies to you because you are owning it solely because it is 'hot'). But the problem with it is that at any point in time it can act as cash, commodity or equity. So as you say it is currently correlated with the Dow, so you could end up owning it instead of investing in the Dow which I am sure you would do far better at or you find the next day you are owning it because you are bearish of the Dow and want to be in cash. Far too sexy for its own good.

Gold is dangerous because it claims to be all things to all men.

[flying]

Gold is dangerous because it claims to be all things to all men.

You have that backwards

Gold is a inanimate object & it makes no claims.

It is men that are dangerous as they are the ones that make the claims.

[Abrak]

Gold is a inanimate object & it makes no claims.

It is men that are dangerous as they are the ones that make the claims.

Just because you do not discuss matters with your gold, it does not mean it is inanimate. Unfortunately I have lost touch with my gold since it was moved to an ETF - simply impossible to get hold of.

[flying]

Gold is a inanimate object & it makes no claims.

It is men that are dangerous as they are the ones that make the claims.

Just because you do not discuss matters with your gold, it does not mean it is inanimate. Unfortunately I have lost touch with my gold since it was moved to an ETF - simply impossible to get hold of.

The day my gold starts discussing things is the day it has to find a new home.

I think mine must be well trained as it is seen but never heard

Could be why Naam does not want to own any since he has his hands full with the talking dogs

[Abrak]

The day my gold starts discussing things is the day it has to find a new home.

I think mine must be well trained as it is seen but never heard

Could be why Naam does not want to own any since he has his hands full with the talking dogs

Yes very good advice. When gold told me one day it was something and then the next it was something else, I eventually (I mean a bit like some girls if they are cute enough it takes a while to realize they are lying to you) dumped the stuff a few weeks back. (Rather amazingly it has seems to have found a more extravagant sponsor).

Oh well silver still tells me I am cute and I found a stock on the market today trading at 2.5x next years earnings (incidentally that is generally known as a threesome (inc biactive)). So we have parted with no hard feelings.

[lannarebirth]

Since Gold became a must own investment in a deflationary environment. An argument I just can't make sense out of. I will assume that when inflation finally rears its head it will be sell the news time.

[flying]

Since Gold became a must own investment in a deflationary environment. An argument I just can't make sense out of. I will assume that when inflation finally rears its head it will be sell the news time.

With my lack of charting skill & your obvious talent for it....

I would be interested to hear what the charts imply to you.

Just your interpretation or guess at where you think it is headed in the

near term. Not for investment advice but just out of interest.

If your inclined

[zorro1]

Tonight IMO will be a leading indicator. Friday night = weekend profit taking/ trader exists , Sept supposed to be crap, hence we should see some red. But if we see green then its odds on march straight to 10,000!

bit confused about gold though, it seems to be following the Dow. Any thoughts? I'm heavily invested but only cause its the hot sector , that's the only reason.

This isnt going to be much help but I owned gold for 18 months and this what I learnt.

(1) It is very good currency (i.e. cash) and a hedge against the dollar.

(2) Every other correlation is rubbish. Sometimes it is correlated with the Dow sometimes inverse, same applies to nominal interest rates, real interest rates, economic growth, inflation etc. It does act as a pretty good proxy for a fairly rubbish commodity as well.

(3) It is nice and shiny.

It is also very dangerous to own (I doubt this applies to you because you are owning it solely because it is 'hot'). But the problem with it is that at any point in time it can act as cash, commodity or equity. So as you say it is currently correlated with the Dow, so you could end up owning it instead of investing in the Dow which I am sure you would do far better at or you find the next day you are owning it because you are bearish of the Dow and want to be in cash. Far too sexy for its own good.

Gold is dangerous because it claims to be all things to all men.

I only own gold stock juniors not physical gold. Much more exciting, a great junior goldie will progress with the dow as long as it is releasing regular upgrades to the markets re JORC etc. I dont hold physical gold but curious to its trend re the DOW. Am learning a lot reading the gold thread re both yours flyings and Naams posts and others

[lannarebirth]

Since Gold became a must own investment in a deflationary environment. An argument I just can't make sense out of. I will assume that when inflation finally rears its head it will be sell the news time.

With my lack of charting skill & your obvious talent for it....

I would be interested to hear what the charts imply to you.

Just your interpretation or guess at where you think it is headed in the

near term. Not for investment advice but just out of interest.

If your inclined

The triangle breakout has a measured move to 1140-1150 I have no idea if it will get there. The last triangle breakout from 600ish did achieve its measured move, consolidated there and moved higher still.

Things would be looking a little better for the goldbugs if it had closed a little higher yesterday. No decisive close (though marginally higher) from previous weekly closing highs. It seems they're trying to draw both longs and shorts in here. That is often bullish, though sometimes not.

My bias is, because I'm expecting $USD lows in the next few weeks (which may turn out to be all wrong) is that Gold will spike to new highs and come back and test the breakout.. Just a guess.

[flying]

The triangle breakout has a measured move to 1140-1150 I have no idea if it will get there. The last triangle breakout from 600ish did achieve its measured move, consolidated there and moved higher still.

Things would be looking a little better for the goldbugs if it had closed a little higher yesterday. No decisive close (though marginally higher) from previous weekly closing highs. It seems they're trying to draw both longs and shorts in here. That is often bullish, though sometimes not.

My bias is, because I'm expecting $USD lows in the next few weeks (which may turn out to be all wrong) is that Gold will spike to new highs and come back and test the breakout.. Just a guess.

Hey thanks !

Much appreciated. It is very interesting...charting I mean.

I have always thought at some point I would like to learn more about it.

Years ago during the tech bubble I started to but didn't keep up.

looking at the chart you posted I see some basic things I understand.

I see the breakout & wondered where does the measured move come from?

What is it that puts it at the range you mention? That is something I have no idea of how its measured since that would be in uncharted territory.

Thanks again!

[midas]

The triangle breakout has a measured move to 1140-1150 I have no idea if it will get there. The last triangle breakout from 600ish did achieve its measured move, consolidated there and moved higher still.

Things would be looking a little better for the goldbugs if it had closed a little higher yesterday. No decisive close (though marginally higher) from previous weekly closing highs. It seems they're trying to draw both longs and shorts in here. That is often bullish, though sometimes not.

My bias is, because I'm expecting $USD lows in the next few weeks (which may turn out to be all wrong) is that Gold will spike to new highs and come back and test the breakout.. Just a guess.

Hey thanks !

Much appreciated. It is very interesting...charting I mean.

I have always thought at some point I would like to learn more about it.

Years ago during the tech bubble I started to but didn't keep up.

looking at the chart you posted I see some basic things I understand.

I see the breakout & wondered where does the measured move come from?

What is it that puts it at the range you mention? That is something I have no idea of how its measured since that would be in uncharted territory.

Thanks again!

What about this :-

" In what can only be called a rather surprising development, the IMF has disclosed it is selling 403 metric tons of gold, or about one eighth of its total gold holdings. The reason: to continue providing lending to the poorest countries. "

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/imf-selli...ion-gold-market

[zorro1]

The triangle breakout has a measured move to 1140-1150 I have no idea if it will get there. The last triangle breakout from 600ish did achieve its measured move, consolidated there and moved higher still.

Things would be looking a little better for the goldbugs if it had closed a little higher yesterday. No decisive close (though marginally higher) from previous weekly closing highs. It seems they're trying to draw both longs and shorts in here. That is often bullish, though sometimes not.

My bias is, because I'm expecting $USD lows in the next few weeks (which may turn out to be all wrong) is that Gold will spike to new highs and come back and test the breakout.. Just a guess.

Hey thanks !

Much appreciated. It is very interesting...charting I mean.

I have always thought at some point I would like to learn more about it.

Years ago during the tech bubble I started to but didn't keep up.

looking at the chart you posted I see some basic things I understand.

I see the breakout & wondered where does the measured move come from?

What is it that puts it at the range you mention? That is something I have no idea of how its measured since that would be in uncharted territory.

Thanks again!

What about this :-

" In what can only be called a rather surprising development, the IMF has disclosed it is selling 403 metric tons of gold, or about one eighth of its total gold holdings. The reason: to continue providing lending to the poorest countries. "

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/imf-selli...ion-gold-market

yes we finally agree, its a hot topic your post Midas. This is an interesting reply from another gold forum re IMF

"This was suggested a while ago, but now they going ahead."

*******************************

A while ago? That's an understatement, the IMF 400 tonnes gold sale story has been floating around for over 2.5 years:

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/phillips...lips020807.html

The story seems to re-appear whenever they need the price of gold driven down.

I wouldn't be too concerned though, there were gold sales from the IMF over the gold bull in the late 70s, it was a lot more sold and didn't keep the price down:

[flying]

Yes IMF has said it will sell for some time now.

I always wondered why? Why now? Yes 13B instead of 8B when first announced

but still I wondered why not keep the gold? Especially now with the dollar headed for

who knows where. This is one explanation........

The IMF is in the dollar camp. Its sole purpose is to ensure that third world countries can pay their dollar-denominated debts in order to keep the dollar alive. If that debt from third world countries could no longer be serviced, it could no longer be held as an asset within the financial system. Therefore, the IMF issues highly leveraged dollar loans to these countries to make sure that payments continue. In exchange, it locks up real world capital as collateral for the loans. This is NOT a system that supports third world economies. It is a system that supports the dollar's reserve function at the EXPENSE of third world economies. If the IMF stopped functioning, so would the dollar. And the US government would lose its external funding.

That is part of a very good read.

Full article here.............

http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2009/08/confisca...erent-view.html

[loong]

Somehow, this thread has moved on to gold, but I guess that it's all related to the stockmarket.

Here's my take if anyone is interested.

First weekly chart..

In the larger timeframes, I prefer to use the highs and lows for my trendlines. I know that a lot of people stick to the candle bodies.

As you can see, gold has been in a firm uptrend, the last 5 weeks have all had higher highs and higher lows, but has now hit resistance. The last weekly candle more or less opened and closed right on the resistance line and ended as a spinning top Doji. The previous week ended with the bulls gaining the upper hand, but last week the bulls tried to take the price higher and the bears tried to take it lower - neither won.

If holding gold for the long term, this looks to be a time of indecision, so it makes sense to get ready to get out if the market moves against you.

Daily Chart

There are no really good resistance lines on the daily chart, but it has broken the weekly resistance, but already going down to test it as support.

We had a series of 3 candles with higher highs and higher lows, so the makings of a good fractal where if the price goes down and reverses to go up could be a good place to go long.

I'm not sure if a lower timeframe than the daily chart adds much validity with a commodity such as gold, but will look at the 4 hour chart.

On the 4 hour chart,The price has broken support and has gone back up and is currently testing it as resistance. There is divergence with the price and MACD and that can indicate a trend reversal. The signal line is above the MACD histogram, which indicates that you do not want to be long at the moment.

Both the Weekly and Daily chart are telling us to wait, let the market tell you where it wants to go.

The 4 hour chart is indicating a possible short, but I would wait for at least 1 more candle to complete before making any decisions.

To be honest, the gold, forex and stockmarket charts are all indicating a period of indecision and at times like this it's probably best to keep out. Bide your time and wait until the market makes a firm move and jump on board, it could well be quite a major move, be it continuation or reversal of trend.

Now, please tell me if you think that I'm talking a load of rubbish - I won't be offended. Constructive criticism is never a bad thing

[lannarebirth]

The triangle breakout has a measured move to 1140-1150 I have no idea if it will get there. The last triangle breakout from 600ish did achieve its measured move, consolidated there and moved higher still.

Things would be looking a little better for the goldbugs if it had closed a little higher yesterday. No decisive close (though marginally higher) from previous weekly closing highs. It seems they're trying to draw both longs and shorts in here. That is often bullish, though sometimes not.

My bias is, because I'm expecting $USD lows in the next few weeks (which may turn out to be all wrong) is that Gold will spike to new highs and come back and test the breakout.. Just a guess.

Hey thanks !

Much appreciated. It is very interesting...charting I mean.

I have always thought at some point I would like to learn more about it.

Years ago during the tech bubble I started to but didn't keep up.

looking at the chart you posted I see some basic things I understand.

I see the breakout & wondered where does the measured move come from?

What is it that puts it at the range you mention? That is something I have no idea of how its measured since that would be in uncharted territory.

Thanks again!

At the widest point of the tiangle you measure between the high and low points. Add that number to the price where it broke out of the triangle. i was using closing basis numbers. If using true highs and lows could be 10--20 points higher measureemnt.

http://www.chartpatterns.com/cp_prs_user_manual.htm

[flying]

At the widest point of the tiangle you measure between the high and low points. Add that number to the price where it broke out of the triangle. i was using closing basis numbers. If using true highs and lows could be 10--20 points higher measureemnt.

http://www.chartpatterns.com/cp_prs_user_manual.htm

Thanks very interesting info.

[Thaipwriter]

Much appreciated. It is very interesting...charting I mean.

I have always thought at some point I would like to learn more about it.

I recommend Martin Prings book, Technical Analysis Explained. A 500 page monster that has paid me back many times over since purchase.

[flying]

Much appreciated. It is very interesting...charting I mean.

I have always thought at some point I would like to learn more about it.

I recommend Martin Prings book, Technical Analysis Explained. A 500 page monster that has paid me back many times over since purchase.

Thanks something to remember....

[Naam]

What about this :-

" In what can only be called a rather surprising development, the IMF has disclosed it is selling 403 metric tons of gold, or about one eighth of its total gold holdings. The reason: to continue providing lending to the poorest countries. "

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/imf-selli...ion-gold-market

"zerohedge" writes rubbish! there's nothing surprising. the sale was decided a long time ago but needed approval of 85% of the member states. the mandatory approval is given by parliamentary vote (which, as we all know, takes time). no dark forces, alien influence, global conspiray and the like involved.

well... perhaps the Bilderbergs or the Illuminati might...