The Stock Market

[loong]

Zorro said

loong You were bearish from day one on the very first page. You continued to be bearish through most of the rally, point being is you missed the BIG gains, once in a lifetime.

From when you started this thread, there has been a 20% gain in the Dow - happened many times in my lifetime so far.

Why do you keep insisting that I was Bearish? If anything, I was neutral.

Yes my first post here said

"Although I tend to agree with "The trend is your friend" I would not advise anyone to jump on the bullmarket bandwagon at the moment. If you are already in and riding the profits all well and good, but I find it too difficult to call at the moment.

The German Dax in particular has over-reacted to every glimmer of good news from the US.

A fall of at least 10% is on the cards, it just needs a run of not so good news to instigate it.

In my opinion the Ftse and Dax are running out of steam, I'm getting no indication re the Dow at all.

Best just to watch for now I think. But I wouldn't be at all surprised to see sharp declines in the markets this week coupled with a strengthening US$ vs GBP and Euro."

This means that if I had any long positions, I would not be rushing to close them, but I also wouldn't be opening any new long positions..

Strange as it may seem Zorro, in post #104 you agreed with me

You posted "To be honest If i wasnt already in I would be cautious right now. I would wait for a break as Loong has suggested. However if the bollingers squeeze and we break upwards we should see 10000 in a flash."

In post #42 I wrote..."At the moment, the optimists are outweighing the pessimists, but we all know that this will turn at some stage. We just don't know when. When the tide turns, I will be looking for shorting opportunities, but I won't be selling the shares that I own, because I am fairly confident that any fall in price will be temporary."

Does this really indicate that I was a calling a bear market? I was neither bullish or bearish about the markets as a whole, but I was actually confident that the shares that I owned would increase in value over time.

In post #200 I said

"I certainly do not underestimate the power of sentiment.

I'm just not prepared to ride this wave of sentiment as markets go higher.

In every bull or bear market, there are corrections. I will wait for sentiment to wane and hopefully ride some of the wave of sentiment as it turns.

To be honest with you, I don't particularly like bull or bear rallies too much. It doesn't suit my style of investing. I like to see markets move up and down by about 3 to 5 % at a time. I find good opportunities then.

For now, I will try to pick my moments, but for the most part I will stay out."

So I've re-read the first few pages of this thread, I'm not going to read the whole thing again.

I have never called a bear market, but I had no confidence in the bull rally.

You call me a loser because I "missed out"

You say I was wrong.

My interpretation of the charts at that time told me to stay out of the market. I would have been wrong if I had ignored what I could see.

If/when the stockmarket moves into a period of consolidation, I may once again see opportunities for trading.

For now I will continue to concentrate on the Forex market and look for opportunities there.

I believe that very few people would dispute that Discipline is one of the most important tools that a trader needs. Part of that discipline is being able to trade only when there appears to be a good set-up, and also being able not to trade when one has doubts.

[lannarebirth]

PEN

# Range 0.04 - 0.05

# 52 week 0.02 - 0.06

# Open 0.04

# Vol. 2.12M

# Mkt cap 61.92M

Q4 (Dec '09) 2009

Net profit margin -2082.58% -1090.24%

Operating margin -2082.58% -1090.24%

EBITD margin - -1083.33%

Return on average assets -14.08% -8.11%

Return on average equity -14.50% -8.38%

So, how did a topic purported to be about the global stock market with a market cap of many trillions of dollars turn into a discussion of an individual micro cap stock that has a daily turnover of 84,800 dollars? Penny stocks are an interesting topic (I guess) for some, but if you want to talk about penny stocks you should open a thread about it. Then you could get into all kinds of interesting suptopics like reverse splits, vulture financing, RICO statutes, etc.

[zorro1]

Lanna it came from a poster called Jcon who knocked the stock with zero research. Being my largest holding i was obliged to defend it. He brought up

So I say lets all call a truce and see if the thread can be turned into a postitive. Im happy to name stocks that i believe are on a verge of a rally. Dont have to be right everytime 7 wins out of ten will do just fine Other stock that i have just purchased are VIL at 3.1c and meo @ 37c

If anyone wants to discuss theses or any others want to contribute their own, fine by me.

[zorro1]

p.s Im willing to post a chart on any stock. Anyone wants to know how there stock is trending I will chart it.

[ray23]

Following the topic

[zorro1]

Why Im bullish on meo. you can see every time a trend reversal pops up (yellow triangle) and followed through with confirmation (green triangle) there has been a rally. Also Meo is on the verge of a final sign up by a large Farminee

[zorro1]

why Im bullish on Vil. you can see the last yellow triangle at beginning of chart was a very accurate early detect indicator. Looking for the same pattern to emerge . Vil has retested resistance twice on thursday and bounced straight off. This one just recently went fro 4.8c to 9 c in 24hours and has now retracedand is a buy IMO, im already set @3.1c have a sell @6c

[lannarebirth]

Lanna it came from a poster called Jcon who knocked the stock with zero research. Being my largest holding i was obliged to defend it. He brought up

So I say lets all call a truce and see if the thread can be turned into a postitive. Im happy to name stocks that i believe are on a verge of a rally. Dont have to be right everytime 7 wins out of ten will do just fine Other stock that i have just purchased are VIL at 3.1c and meo @ 37c

If anyone wants to discuss theses or any others want to contribute their own, fine by me.

OK zorro, I'm sorry I called you a fraud, but let me explain my reasoning. In over a decade on stock trading message boards I have never seen legitimate traders discuss anything other than ideas. With only rare exceptions did I ever hear anyone talk aboout the money they were making and never have I heard them be insulting of those who had differing ideas. I think the reason for this is, that in those settings people provide self generated, supporting arguments, usually in the form of a chart with appropriate T/A or sometimes even fundamentals arguments. Never do I see abuse and insults traded between posters who present their ideas in good faith, regardless of whether they turn out to be wrong or right. Those that are right more often than wrong readers are able to distinguish for themselves and they also have their own personal profits as their reward.

Now, about penny stocks, I'm not a fan as they are the antithesis of what I look for when trading. I want low volatility and extremely high liquidity. I don't want to wake up one morning to a 50% or more haircut. That said, I do realize it sometimes works the other way and some people can profit handsomely. It's just not my game.

About your chart, save for the daily close outside the Bollinger band, which is often a reversal indicator, I think you'll see your indicators have let you down there. Also, I assume that's a daily chart, so why are there so many days where there is no price candlestick? You got that gap down at 7 which may get filled and if it does good for you.

[Gambles]

To be honest the 2009 market was such a freak of nature and most intelligent investors were deterred by the downside risks and still remain significantly sidelined because of risk that I honestly don't believe that participants who did well last year were smart - they were either brave enough to take that level of risk on board (in which case they're probably speculators) or not smart enough to understand the risks (in which case they were lucky with the outcome).

Gambles, i have problems to follow your remark "market was a freak of nature". anybody who followed the markets -starting mid march 2009- of certain asset classes, waiting cautiously a month or even two could not arrive at another conclusion than "BUY!" and within a few months doubled, tripled or quadrupled the amount invested. my view is that an investor who applies a part of his cash or perhaps a value of up to 20% of his holdings during or in the aftermath of a crisis is not a speculator but a prudent investor who has done his homework based on his experience during other times of various crises. in doing so he increased his total net considerably and that without betting the ranch.

i refrain from commenting on investors who did nothing because "they were deterred by the downside risks"

Dear Naam, the market was a freak because of the opacity of the interference.

One direct result was that the biggest returns in 09 were in the poorest quality and the riskiest assets.

Very little new money was invested until the markets had rallied strongly and by then it chased crowded trades.

Our published views were

Feb '09 - we look like we're getting close to an equity bottom - give it another few weeks

Mar '09 - we're probably at an equity bottom right now. Most investors should probably take small exposure (we were a little below your 20% figure) to high quality equities, not because these will increase the most; they won't - Any rally will be liquidity driven and therefore the worst quality assets will benefit the most - however you should only buy these if you really want to take the risk - but because if we're wrong and the rally doesn't come and the floor is say 50% or more down from here (here being 03/09 levels) then at least make sure that you're owning assets that you really want to own.

Sep '09 - it's starting to look a bit too hot on risk assets right now

Dec '09 - risk assets should maybe run another 6 or more months but each there is an almost vertically increasing risk of something going wrong; expect the unexpected, beware of BoB (bolts from the blue)

I'm not suggesting investors do nothing; I never would - we made reasonable profits on high quality equities but high quality equities probably gained the least of any equity class last year. We did do quite nicely on corporate bonds and to a lesser extent on gold but nothing like the riskier asset returns. We cut back on CTAs, macro and relative value because conditions looked to be and proved to be too difficult for thise guys last year. Avoiding extreme risk it was very difficult to double, triple or quadruple your entire portfolio and this certainly didn't happen to any significant number of investors. It was possible to avoid risk and to post solid but unexciting risk-adjusted returns.

However none of that really matters now. What matters now is how much risk people hold in their portfolios - and my big concern right now is still that most people underestimate this and this thread, with its view that omnipotence is easy, just encourages this complacency.

[Gambles]

This is all my fault people…………….very sorry !

When I called zorro " Mr Market ", I never dreamt for one minute he would actually take this seriously and believe he was ..

Midas, Midas, Midas,

What have you done ???

[Gambles]

How does Pen fit in? check out this re rating report 6-8c short term , now 4.5

Resource Capital Research

22nd March 2010

Peninsula Minerals Limited

PEN is advancing the prospective Lance ISR project in Wyoming. Key resource and economic data are expected 2Q10. BFS expected 1H11; production potential 2012. A significant re-rating of PEN's share price is anticipated as project parameters are confirmed 2010.

Focused on uranium - 2010 total exploration and

evaluation budget A$25m; A$20m earmarked for Lance.

Lance ISR project (WY): potential production 2012;

Production target 1.5mlbspa U3O8; PEN est. total opex

US$26/lb; initial capex US$60m. NPV breakeven

~US$30/lb U3O8.

Lance project regional exploration target 70 to 90mlbs U3O8 grading 0.05 - 0.07%. Ross and Barber target 12 to 18mlbs U3O8. 4 rigs on site.

Initial JORC resource and PFS expected 2Q10.

Karoo Project: shallow, high grade mineralisation identified from surface to 40m - exploration target of 90 to 150mlbs U3O8 grading 0.12 to 0.14%.

Karoo Project: Resource definition drilling 1H10 - 10

priority drill targets; scoping study expected 2H10. Mid term target 30mlbs U3O8 2012.

Investment Comment:

PENs valuation is driven by the Lance ISR uranium project with production visibility, potentially 2012. While key resource and project data are yet to be confirmed (expected 2Q10) robust project economics are indicated with a breakeven project NPV of ~US$30/lb U3O8. At the current long term price (US$60/lb U3O8) and assuming an initial resource (mid target range) of 15mlbs grading 0.065, total opex US$26/lb, initial capex US$60m, NPV is over US$120m (10% r/i), with upside to anticipated further regional exploration success. PENs share price has potential to be re-rated to $0.06-0.08/share near term as project milestones are met 2Q10. WY is a uranium friendly state, combined with PENs use of experienced external permitting consultants, and new streamlined permitting timeframes in the US, positions the company well to fast track regulatory approvals.

Personally I'd rather play this with a small overall portfolio allocation to a commodity hedge fund that knows what it's doing and trades rare earth metals etc within a diversified approach to commodities

[zorro1]

aplolgy accepted Lanna, if you go to your platform you will see both stock closed inside the bollingers. the charting system i use is accurate in identifying trends and show where the trend began not where it closed (triangles) the blue line shows the close, also its very difficult to chart trends in penny stock due to wild fluctuations. What im looking for are trend reversals and not stock price predictions. Anyway lets see how they pan out. Meo is very highr risk due to farminee may or may not sign. if they do it will double, if not it will fall into 20's until second prefered farminee signs up. It just becomes a long postion .

[Abrak]

Gambles, i have problems to follow your remark "market was a freak of nature". anybody who followed the markets -starting mid march 2009- of certain asset classes, waiting cautiously a month or even two could not arrive at another conclusion than "BUY!" and within a few months doubled, tripled or quadrupled the amount invested. my view is that an investor who applies a part of his cash or perhaps a value of up to 20% of his holdings during or in the aftermath of a crisis is not a speculator but a prudent investor who has done his homework based on his experience during other times of various crises. in doing so he increased his total net considerably and that without betting the ranch.

i refrain from commenting on investors who did nothing because "they were deterred by the downside risks"

Dear Naam, the market was a freak because of the opacity of the interference.

One direct result was that the biggest returns in 09 were in the poorest quality and the riskiest assets.

Very little new money was invested until the markets had rallied strongly and by then it chased crowded trades.

Our published views were

Feb '09 - we look like we're getting close to an equity bottom - give it another few weeks

Mar '09 - we're probably at an equity bottom right now. Most investors should probably take small exposure (we were a little below your 20% figure) to high quality equities, not because these will increase the most; they won't - Any rally will be liquidity driven and therefore the worst quality assets will benefit the most - however you should only buy these if you really want to take the risk - but because if we're wrong and the rally doesn't come and the floor is say 50% or more down from here (here being 03/09 levels) then at least make sure that you're owning assets that you really want to own.

Sep '09 - it's starting to look a bit too hot on risk assets right now

Dec '09 - risk assets should maybe run another 6 or more months but each there is an almost vertically increasing risk of something going wrong; expect the unexpected, beware of BoB (bolts from the blue)

I'm not suggesting investors do nothing; I never would - we made reasonable profits on high quality equities but high quality equities probably gained the least of any equity class last year. We did do quite nicely on corporate bonds and to a lesser extent on gold but nothing like the riskier asset returns. We cut back on CTAs, macro and relative value because conditions looked to be and proved to be too difficult for thise guys last year. Avoiding extreme risk it was very difficult to double, triple or quadruple your entire portfolio and this certainly didn't happen to any significant number of investors. It was possible to avoid risk and to post solid but unexciting risk-adjusted returns.

However none of that really matters now. What matters now is how much risk people hold in their portfolios - and my big concern right now is still that most people underestimate this and this thread, with its view that omnipotence is easy, just encourages this complacency.

Gambles,

I have to admit I agree 100% with Naam on this one. (And I didnt buy things at the bottom, I was generally paying 50% above their lows.) And this still pisses me off today that there were so many companies (or assets) to BUY even assuming financial apocalypse at their lows.

At some point if you are buying say a stock at a quarter of net cash, you simply have to admit you were stupid not buy it rather than there is significant risk in buying it. I simply wasnt paying attention at the bottom. Others who were (and didnt buy) had either liquidity issues or were playing the greater fool theory - its incredibly cheap but just going to get cheaper.

As he says ' you could not arrive at another conclusion than "BUY!"'

[lannarebirth]

I have to admit I agree 100% with Naam on this one. (And I didnt buy things at the bottom, I was generally paying 50% above their lows.) And this still pisses me off today that there were so many companies (or assets) to BUY even assuming financial apocalypse at their lows.

At some point if you are buying say a stock at a quarter of net cash, you simply have to admit you were stupid not buy it rather than there is significant risk in buying it. I simply wasnt paying attention at the bottom. Others who were (and didnt buy) had either liquidity issues or were playing the greater fool theory - its incredibly cheap but just going to get cheaper.

As he says ' you could not arrive at another conclusion than "BUY!"'

Buying under net cash is one of my criteria for buying a stock in market swoons. I'm not sure how I'd have handled the further 50% fall after doing so. I probably should have been paying more attention to individual stocks here in Thailand. Lots of pretty good US tech companies could be had at discounts to cash on hand and a couple of those I did buy.

Edited April 4, 2010 by lannarebirth

[Naam]

However none of that really matters now. What matters now is how much risk people hold in their portfolios - and my big concern right now is still that most people underestimate this and this thread, with its view that omnipotence is easy, just encourages this complacency.

only fools and/or speculators hold on to risky assets instead of cashing in after they made a few hundred percent profit. of course there are investors who always or most of the time hold a certain percentage of risky assets in their portfolios as long as the risk/reward ratio is [in their view] acceptable.

[ray23]

Question gentlemen, certain Thai stocks have doe well in the last year. Do you think the current protests will effect the Thai market?

The way I see things now is the only way the Government will look good, is if the protesters walk away. They do nothing they will be considered weak. If they do anything to remove this people then they will be said to have caused the violence that is bound to follow.

It really looks like a tough position for them and really doesn't reflect a stable effective Government.

Will there be a good buy opportunity in the energy stocks.

I'm sorry I probably didn't ask the question properly. You guys are really leaps and bounds ahead of me with knowledge.

I'm looking at Aberdeen simply because I can involved at a level of 5K baht a month while I learn and not get hurt to bad

[Naam]

I have to admit I agree 100% with Naam on this one. (And I didnt buy things at the bottom, I was generally paying 50% above their lows.) And this still pisses me off today that there were so many companies (or assets) to BUY even assuming financial apocalypse at their lows.

At some point if you are buying say a stock at a quarter of net cash, you simply have to admit you were stupid not buy it rather than there is significant risk in buying it. I simply wasnt paying attention at the bottom. Others who were (and didnt buy) had either liquidity issues or were playing the greater fool theory - its incredibly cheap but just going to get cheaper.

As he says ' you could not arrive at another conclusion than "BUY!"'

Buying under net cash is one of my criteria for buying a stock in market swoons. I'm not sure how I'd have handled the further 50% fall after doing so. I probably should have been paying more attention to individual stocks here in Thailand. Lots of pretty good US tech companies could be had at discounts to cash on hand and a couple of those I did buy.

look back one year and you will find sensational bargains in virtually all asset classes whether stocks, bonds, commodities or whatever. these opportunities did not exist as long as i can think back, respectively had some money to invest. in former crisis times and the asset class i am in (exclusively bonds) it was possible to make 10 or even 20% within a few trading days and perhaps 50% in a year. but never 100, 200, 300 and more percent within three months.

[zorro1]

Ray 23 the thai set has gone gang busters during the red shirt rally. The g/f ha s a fund called scb set and has done very well last 3 weeks, actually Thai set in general has done very well to outperform since the recession. wish I had of bought some

[ray23]

Thanks for your thoughts.

[Abrak]

My expertise is the Thai market. Forget all the noise. The world goes on. Someone will eventually die. The reds will go back.

Just dont even look at it. Thailand is not and has not really been changed by its politics. Political uncertainty is really just an investment opportunity.

Aberdeen are pretty good in my experience. (unless you really want to work hard at this, I would stick with them.)

Valuations are still pretty low. We have seen a good run so dont expect too much.

Thailand's fundamentals are incredibly sound. Valuations of equities are below global averages.

I dont really look at the energy stocks but they appear low risk, decent reward. Egco has about the best dividend record in the SET.

Question gentlemen, certain Thai stocks have doe well in the last year. Do you think the current protests will effect the Thai market?

The way I see things now is the only way the Government will look good, is if the protesters walk away. They do nothing they will be considered weak. If they do anything to remove this people then they will be said to have caused the violence that is bound to follow.

It really looks like a tough position for them and really doesn't reflect a stable effective Government.

Will there be a good buy opportunity in the energy stocks.

I'm sorry I probably didn't ask the question properly. You guys are really leaps and bounds ahead of me with knowledge.

I'm looking at Aberdeen simply because I can involved at a level of 5K baht a month while I learn and not get hurt to bad

[zorro1]

Political uncertainty is really just an investment opportunity.

Abrak the other time set was an amazing buy was when number 1 was very ill, set dumped only to rally hard. your right seems any political uncertainty is bought in to..

[ray23]

Thanks guys, I don't mind the work but I have years to go to just find out what the work is that needs to be done.

Losing 5 K baht each month isn't going to kill me. Bank is only paying .05% on savings, hopefully I will be able to do better then that.

So I it will be a good learning experience for me and my wife.

The goal is to have things setup for the drop, what will cause that I don't know. But, it seems to be a norm in the market. BANPU for example has been very consistent, is involved in alternative energy, So that will more then likely be where I will start.

Again thanks guys.

[Abrak]

And perhaps a final thought is this.

The SET peaked at 1786 on January 4th 1994. It is currently 800. So it has done a pretty good job of showing that it has been about the worst performing asset in the world over the last 16 years. Imagine say gold that was 800 and 16 years later was 350 or something. Now based on that performance you are probably not going to go too far wrong in the long term.

[Gambles]

Gambles, i have problems to follow your remark "market was a freak of nature". anybody who followed the markets -starting mid march 2009- of certain asset classes, waiting cautiously a month or even two could not arrive at another conclusion than "BUY!" and within a few months doubled, tripled or quadrupled the amount invested. my view is that an investor who applies a part of his cash or perhaps a value of up to 20% of his holdings during or in the aftermath of a crisis is not a speculator but a prudent investor who has done his homework based on his experience during other times of various crises. in doing so he increased his total net considerably and that without betting the ranch.

i refrain from commenting on investors who did nothing because "they were deterred by the downside risks"

Dear Naam, the market was a freak because of the opacity of the interference.

One direct result was that the biggest returns in 09 were in the poorest quality and the riskiest assets.

Very little new money was invested until the markets had rallied strongly and by then it chased crowded trades.

Our published views were

Feb '09 - we look like we're getting close to an equity bottom - give it another few weeks

Mar '09 - we're probably at an equity bottom right now. Most investors should probably take small exposure (we were a little below your 20% figure) to high quality equities, not because these will increase the most; they won't - Any rally will be liquidity driven and therefore the worst quality assets will benefit the most - however you should only buy these if you really want to take the risk - but because if we're wrong and the rally doesn't come and the floor is say 50% or more down from here (here being 03/09 levels) then at least make sure that you're owning assets that you really want to own.

Sep '09 - it's starting to look a bit too hot on risk assets right now

Dec '09 - risk assets should maybe run another 6 or more months but each there is an almost vertically increasing risk of something going wrong; expect the unexpected, beware of BoB (bolts from the blue)

I'm not suggesting investors do nothing; I never would - we made reasonable profits on high quality equities but high quality equities probably gained the least of any equity class last year. We did do quite nicely on corporate bonds and to a lesser extent on gold but nothing like the riskier asset returns. We cut back on CTAs, macro and relative value because conditions looked to be and proved to be too difficult for thise guys last year. Avoiding extreme risk it was very difficult to double, triple or quadruple your entire portfolio and this certainly didn't happen to any significant number of investors. It was possible to avoid risk and to post solid but unexciting risk-adjusted returns.

However none of that really matters now. What matters now is how much risk people hold in their portfolios - and my big concern right now is still that most people underestimate this and this thread, with its view that omnipotence is easy, just encourages this complacency.

Gambles,

I have to admit I agree 100% with Naam on this one. (And I didnt buy things at the bottom, I was generally paying 50% above their lows.) And this still pisses me off today that there were so many companies (or assets) to BUY even assuming financial apocalypse at their lows.

At some point if you are buying say a stock at a quarter of net cash, you simply have to admit you were stupid not buy it rather than there is significant risk in buying it. I simply wasnt paying attention at the bottom. Others who were (and didnt buy) had either liquidity issues or were playing the greater fool theory - its incredibly cheap but just going to get cheaper.

As he says ' you could not arrive at another conclusion than "BUY!"'

Abrak, we saw the upside but we saw the risks too.

The upshot was that we decided to participate in a fairly small way because the risks were too high for us.

Everyone has their own risk appetite and risk was fully rewarded last year but that's hindsight. In real time risk is risk and while it suits many people to take risk (or in too many cases to simply ignore the risks) that's not my approach. Each to their own but you have to look at what you're trying to do - preserve and grow capital securely at one extreme or speculate at the other. I get paid to help people preserve and grow capital - I wouldn't be too much use at the more speculative end of the scale.

[Gambles]

However none of that really matters now. What matters now is how much risk people hold in their portfolios - and my big concern right now is still that most people underestimate this and this thread, with its view that omnipotence is easy, just encourages this complacency.

only fools and/or speculators hold on to risky assets instead of cashing in after they made a few hundred percent profit. of course there are investors who always or most of the time hold a certain percentage of risky assets in their portfolios as long as the risk/reward ratio is [in their view] acceptable.

a defined per centage of risk is very different from betting the farm...maybe I misunderstood but it seemed as though people were talking about the latter and that's what I was warning against (even though I think this rally has legs for several months, I also think that it has uncompensated risks on the horizon)

[Gambles]

I have to admit I agree 100% with Naam on this one. (And I didnt buy things at the bottom, I was generally paying 50% above their lows.) And this still pisses me off today that there were so many companies (or assets) to BUY even assuming financial apocalypse at their lows.

At some point if you are buying say a stock at a quarter of net cash, you simply have to admit you were stupid not buy it rather than there is significant risk in buying it. I simply wasnt paying attention at the bottom. Others who were (and didnt buy) had either liquidity issues or were playing the greater fool theory - its incredibly cheap but just going to get cheaper.

As he says ' you could not arrive at another conclusion than "BUY!"'

Buying under net cash is one of my criteria for buying a stock in market swoons. I'm not sure how I'd have handled the further 50% fall after doing so. I probably should have been paying more attention to individual stocks here in Thailand. Lots of pretty good US tech companies could be had at discounts to cash on hand and a couple of those I did buy.

look back one year and you will find sensational bargains in virtually all asset classes whether stocks, bonds, commodities or whatever. these opportunities did not exist as long as i can think back, respectively had some money to invest. in former crisis times and the asset class i am in (exclusively bonds) it was possible to make 10 or even 20% within a few trading days and perhaps 50% in a year. but never 100, 200, 300 and more percent within three months.

agreed - there were opportunities in bonds that looked better than some equity calls from a risk reward perspective and we were much happier with those but again bonds, gold and the commodities that did well for us in 09 did less well than the risky assets which is my point - if you really believe that there was such an opportunity you would have bet everything on some small Indian and maybe Chinese companies or some penny stocks and made extraordinary per centages. There were clearly opportunities in many asset classes - we exploited what we saw as the best from a risk/reward point of view and many of these were relatively weak from a total return point of view compared to the highest risk assets. Once you look at returns well over 50% last year then you're also getting into nosebleed territory on terms of risk. I'm not saying there weren't buying opportunities - everything was a buying opportunity but exercising any risk criteria really excluded the crazily high returns last year.

[Gambles]

Question gentlemen, certain Thai stocks have doe well in the last year. Do you think the current protests will effect the Thai market?

The way I see things now is the only way the Government will look good, is if the protesters walk away. They do nothing they will be considered weak. If they do anything to remove this people then they will be said to have caused the violence that is bound to follow.

It really looks like a tough position for them and really doesn't reflect a stable effective Government.

Will there be a good buy opportunity in the energy stocks.

I'm sorry I probably didn't ask the question properly. You guys are really leaps and bounds ahead of me with knowledge.

I'm looking at Aberdeen simply because I can involved at a level of 5K baht a month while I learn and not get hurt to bad

In very general terms -

Personally I like Aberdeen

Baht cost averaging in at 5K a month for a significant period (you shoudl probably plan up to 5 years to catch buying at the right levels) sounds a great call

Our fear is a huge global equity collapse in the period spanning H2 10 to H2 11. Your strategy would position you reasonably well for that but of course needs to be looked at in the context of your entire financial and investment planning.

cheers

Paul

[Naam]

However none of that really matters now. What matters now is how much risk people hold in their portfolios - and my big concern right now is still that most people underestimate this and this thread, with its view that omnipotence is easy, just encourages this complacency.

only fools and/or speculators hold on to risky assets instead of cashing in after they made a few hundred percent profit. of course there are investors who always or most of the time hold a certain percentage of risky assets in their portfolios as long as the risk/reward ratio is [in their view] acceptable.

a defined per centage of risk is very different from betting the farm...maybe I misunderstood but it seemed as though people were talking about the latter and that's what I was warning against (even though I think this rally has legs for several months, I also think that it has uncompensated risks on the horizon)

i can't imagine that any investor with an IQ above 82.5 is stupid enough to bet the farm on one asset or one asset class... although some hardcore goldbugs are trying to make us believe they do. and perhaps they really do. let's wish them good luck

[Naam]

agreed - there were opportunities in bonds that looked better than some equity calls from a risk reward perspective and we were much happier with those but again bonds, gold and the commodities that did well for us in 09 did less well than the risky assets which is my point -

1. if you really believe that there was such an opportunity you would have bet everything on some small Indian and maybe Chinese companies or some penny stocks and made extraordinary per centages.

There were clearly opportunities in many asset classes - we exploited what we saw as the best from a risk/reward point of view and many of these were relatively weak from a total return point of view compared to the highest risk assets.

2. Once you look at returns well over 50% last year then you're also getting into nosebleed territory on terms of risk. I'm not saying there weren't buying opportunities - everything was a buying opportunity but exercising any risk criteria really excluded the crazily high returns last year.

1. YUCK! no information but clowns and frauds forging balance sheets and then defaulting. i can name a dozen of them in China, India and Indonesia as well as in Thailand

2. pardon me Honourable Sir! triple and double A rated financial institutions with hardly any exposure to subprime are providing nosebleed territory? even risky debt of slightly shaky financial institutions were in my [not so] humble view a "safe" bet when one could buy their debt at 5, 10 and 20 cents of the pre-crisis dollar value.

[zorro1]

closed vil postion @3.6 nearly 20% 1 week good enough for me