The Stock Market

[midas]

closed vil postion @3.6 nearly 20% 1 week good enough for me

well done !

Now then Zorro, you have mentioned stop loss orders several times and I am interested in knowing your opinion about these in this particular so called “ market “. For many months I have been reading how the short sellers were blown away a long time ago and so when the market correction comes its likely to tank rather than unwind in a more orderly fashion ? Do you agree ?.

Under those circumstances how does a stop loss order help you ?

[zorro1]

W

closed vil postion @3.6 nearly 20% 1 week good enough for me

well done !

Now then Zorro, you have mentioned stop loss orders several times and I am interested in knowing your opinion about these in this particular so called " market ". For many months I have been reading how the short sellers were blown away a long time ago and so when the market correction comes its likely to tank rather than unwind in a more orderly fashion ? Do you agree ?.

Under those circumstances how does a stop loss order help you ?

Im not sure what you mean. When were shorts blown away? If a market correction occurs without bouncing back then shorts will take up postions accelerating a collapse. I dont use stops anymore havnt for a long time but rather sell live if a trend is collapsing.

[Gambles]

However none of that really matters now. What matters now is how much risk people hold in their portfolios - and my big concern right now is still that most people underestimate this and this thread, with its view that omnipotence is easy, just encourages this complacency.

only fools and/or speculators hold on to risky assets instead of cashing in after they made a few hundred percent profit. of course there are investors who always or most of the time hold a certain percentage of risky assets in their portfolios as long as the risk/reward ratio is [in their view] acceptable.

a defined per centage of risk is very different from betting the farm...maybe I misunderstood but it seemed as though people were talking about the latter and that's what I was warning against (even though I think this rally has legs for several months, I also think that it has uncompensated risks on the horizon)

i can't imagine that any investor with an IQ above 82.5 is stupid enough to bet the farm on one asset or one asset class... although some hardcore goldbugs are trying to make us believe they do. and perhaps they really do. let's wish them good luck

Herr Naam, welcome to this thread. Thread, meet Herr Naam.........

[Gambles]

agreed - there were opportunities in bonds that looked better than some equity calls from a risk reward perspective and we were much happier with those but again bonds, gold and the commodities that did well for us in 09 did less well than the risky assets which is my point -

1. if you really believe that there was such an opportunity you would have bet everything on some small Indian and maybe Chinese companies or some penny stocks and made extraordinary per centages.

There were clearly opportunities in many asset classes - we exploited what we saw as the best from a risk/reward point of view and many of these were relatively weak from a total return point of view compared to the highest risk assets.

2. Once you look at returns well over 50% last year then you're also getting into nosebleed territory on terms of risk. I'm not saying there weren't buying opportunities - everything was a buying opportunity but exercising any risk criteria really excluded the crazily high returns last year.

1. YUCK! no information but clowns and frauds forging balance sheets and then defaulting. i can name a dozen of them in China, India and Indonesia as well as in Thailand

2. pardon me Honourable Sir! triple and double A rated financial institutions with hardly any exposure to subprime are providing nosebleed territory? even risky debt of slightly shaky financial institutions were in my [not so] humble view a "safe" bet when one could buy their debt at 5, 10 and 20 cents of the pre-crisis dollar value.

1. My point entirely!

2. I think we bought quality yield mainly at price ranges of 40-60% discount - maybe we just didn't have the X-ray vision to pick through the best opportunities at the very lowest point to make the secure 100% returns that seem to have been so easy last year- luckily most of the people who did so contribute to this thread now!

[Naam]

1. My point entirely!

2. I think we bought quality yield mainly at price ranges of 40-60% discount - maybe we just didn't have the X-ray vision to pick through the best opportunities at the very lowest point to make the secure 100% returns that seem to have been so easy last year- luckily most of the people who did so contribute to this thread now!

Gambles, as an individual investor "one can't dance on various wedding parties at the same time" (german proverb literally translated). to develop an "x-ray vision" (if there is any) one has to specialise and concentrate on one segment of the market as it is impossible to follow and evaluate all the news of all asset classes. in this respect i am the "twin brother" of Abrak who proceeds as i do but concentrates on different assets.

besides, last year provided 100% and more return even if you missed the lowest point timewise by a great margin. that was the 'beauty' of 2009 which i have never experienced before and which i will most probably never experience again. i use the word 'beauty' because there was always ample time to do individual research (by going through hundreds of pages of lawyer bullshit lingo) before making any decision.

[Gambles]

1. My point entirely!

2. I think we bought quality yield mainly at price ranges of 40-60% discount - maybe we just didn't have the X-ray vision to pick through the best opportunities at the very lowest point to make the secure 100% returns that seem to have been so easy last year- luckily most of the people who did so contribute to this thread now!

Gambles, as an individual investor "one can't dance on various wedding parties at the same time" (german proverb literally translated). to develop an "x-ray vision" (if there is any) one has to specialise and concentrate on one segment of the market as it is impossible to follow and evaluate all the news of all asset classes. in this respect i am the "twin brother" of Abrak who proceeds as i do but concentrates on different assets.

besides, last year provided 100% and more return even if you missed the lowest point timewise by a great margin. that was the 'beauty' of 2009 which i have never experienced before and which i will most probably never experience again. i use the word 'beauty' because there was always ample time to do individual research (by going through hundreds of pages of lawyer bullshit lingo) before making any decision.

Totally beg to differ - unless you're talking about just some individual components rather than overall portfolio returns

we'll just have to agree to disagree on this one

Edited April 6, 2010 by Gambles

[Abrak]

Totally beg to differ - unless you're talking about just some individual components rather than overall portfolio returns

we'll just have to agree to disagree on this one

I agree on both sides.

If you took say US equities as a whole and analysed the market. Obviously if you looked at the PE is would look exceedingly expensive - ridiculously so. But that is hardly surprising given that we are hoping we are near the bottom of a cycle. So a sensible thing to do is look at say the PE against a 10 year moving average of earnings to smooth out the peaks and the troughs. Again you wont get too excited the P/E is say at the long run average and your 10 year MVA is moving down at the bottom of the market. Bear market bottoms might be 50% away.

Still interest rates are incredibly low, market is very oversold, so a bounce at the least should be expected. And in those markets you shouldnt be buying the blue chips which have almost certainly held up extremely well.

Once you get down to 'individual components' you can see there is bound to be some unbelievable winners

And it really comes down to this - either Naam was incredibly smart for investing at the bottom or I was incredibly stupid not to. And given all the parameters I think I know which was true. I definitely think it was the worst investment decision of my life

[zorro1]

geez this thread is looking in re view mirror. How about suggestions ? stock by code , charts? , buy ,sell etc etc

[Naam]

1. My point entirely!

2. I think we bought quality yield mainly at price ranges of 40-60% discount - maybe we just didn't have the X-ray vision to pick through the best opportunities at the very lowest point to make the secure 100% returns that seem to have been so easy last year- luckily most of the people who did so contribute to this thread now!

Gambles, as an individual investor "one can't dance on various wedding parties at the same time" (german proverb literally translated). to develop an "x-ray vision" (if there is any) one has to specialise and concentrate on one segment of the market as it is impossible to follow and evaluate all the news of all asset classes. in this respect i am the "twin brother" of Abrak who proceeds as i do but concentrates on different assets.

besides, last year provided 100% and more return even if you missed the lowest point timewise by a great margin. that was the 'beauty' of 2009 which i have never experienced before and which i will most probably never experience again. i use the word 'beauty' because there was always ample time to do individual research (by going through hundreds of pages of lawyer bullshit lingo) before making any decision.

Totally beg to differ - unless you're talking about just some individual components rather than overall portfolio returns

besides a huge pile of cash my portfolio consisted in 2009 nearly exclusively of more than a dozen of said "individual components"... and that no matter how much you beg to differ or disagree it goes however without saying that my portfolio's total net increased in 2009 by "only" 44% because, being a cautious investor, i applied only a part of my cash. based on hindsight i missed the opportunity of a life time to double or triple my total portfolio. but i am not complaining

now the good times are over and the capital gains of my favourite holdings are just a meager 10%, a couple of them 20% capital gains in the first three months of 2010 plus accrued interest = annualised 45-60% (needless to mention that this will not go on and annualised returns are more or less academic if the year is rather "young"). and if you still beg to differ i am prepared to submit relevant proof

[Gambles]

besides a huge pile of cash my portfolio consisted in 2009 nearly exclusively of more than a dozen of said "individual components"... and that no matter how much you beg to differ or disagree it goes however without saying that my portfolio's total net increased in 2009 by "only" 44% because, being a cautious investor, i applied only a part of my cash.

Thank you.

My point entirely.

QED

Sometimes, my friend, I seem to manage to have quite heated agreements with both yourself and Abrak!!

[Gambles]

geez this thread is looking in re view mirror. How about suggestions ? stock by code , charts? , buy ,sell etc etc

Be nimble

Be pragmatic

Be diversified

Get someone who really knows what they're doing, in terms of portfolio allocation (totally differnet skill to fund management) to manage your assets

Expect the unexpected and be aware of bolts from the blue

Be very careful picking up nickels in front of bulldozers (chart following divorced from fundamentals)

Currency volatility is a major issue

Weak assets may be the ones that gain most in rising markets and fall most in the corrections

[flying]

Be very careful picking up nickels in front of bulldozers (chart following divorced from fundamentals)

Currency volatility is a major issue

I liked them all but these really stood out

[Naam]

And it really comes down to this - either Naam was incredibly smart for investing at the bottom or I was incredibly stupid not to. And given all the parameters I think I know which was true. I definitely think it was the worst investment decision of my life

let's set the record straight.

-out of approximately 60 trades i made in 2009 i picked bottom of not more than 3 or 4.

-we discussed by PM one of the opportunities (a hundred or more similar opportunities were available) when you sent me the bond description.

-picking bottom to make big profits was not mandatory. below are some charts (one year) which clearly prove that stepping in after the security went up like a rocket still paid handsomely. i am doing this the last time but will in future not waste my time arguing with people who present their views and forecasts which are backed up by nothing but bla-bla instead of hard facts

[Naam]

besides a huge pile of cash my portfolio consisted in 2009 nearly exclusively of more than a dozen of said "individual components"... and that no matter how much you beg to differ or disagree it goes however without saying that my portfolio's total net increased in 2009 by "only" 44% because, being a cautious investor, i applied only a part of my cash.

Thank you. My point entirely.

QED

Sometimes, my friend, I seem to manage to have quite heated agreements with both yourself and Abrak!!

Gambles, i don't consider our arguments "heated" but quite normal. problem is that we are limited to the written word which (except adding smilies) has no intonation, no gestures and no real possibility for "tongue in cheek". if you are interested to experience heated discussions i will invite you to one of our annual meetings where two or sometimes three dozen investors, bankers, traders, speculators and last not least some who have no freaking idea about finances from all over this planet heat up after having consumed ample wine, booze and cocktails. the discussions cool down between 23.00 hours and midnight when the first ones are looking at their watches and ask "isn't it time to go to Walking Street?"

p.s. those few i mentioned who have no freaking idea about finances are not really participating in the heated discussions but keep enjoying their food and sipping their drinks. and when i nudge them "say something or at least ask some questions!" they might respond "why should we? isn't it enough that we award you princely by paying you a nice dinner once or even twice a year because you are handling our portfolios since 21 years? by the way, make sure to transfer xxk to my account at... you know where. got a new grandchild, wife wants to remodel the bathrooms, landscape company demands xxk to redo outside area... my bloody car is already three years old..."

[ExpatJ]

The Thai SET is having a great year so far- I have made 15% return (cash) on my stock investments since January. I bought LANNA last month and am selling today at 10% profit. Bought Thai air in January which i recently sold for 35% profit. KBANK i bought January and is now up 16%. There is money to be made- i am 'week by week trader' rather than a 'day trader'. I have a watchlist of 20 fundamentally sound 'growth' stocks - proven profit, good ROE, low debt etc and then use charts (relative strength index, MACD, rate of change, stochastics) to identify the best buy and sell points within the 20 stocks.

The market is moving into overbought territory now which means its much harder to buy bargain stocks....

[Abrak]

The Thai SET is having a great year so far ....... Bought Thai air in January which i recently sold for 35% profit........ I have a watchlist of 20 fundamentally sound 'growth' stocks - proven profit, good ROE, low debt etc

The Thai

SET has certainly had a pretty awesome year. One stock I mentioned on this thread is up 100% in less than two months (and 600% in the past year.) Still when the SET gets accused of being a great money maker (especially on past performance) it is usually getting in way over its own fighting weight. If Thai Airways is in your list of 'growth' stocks with proven profit, good ROE and low debt (while really it is just another shitty airline) then we know it is getting pretty close to the time to shut up shop for a while.

[ExpatJ]

The Thai SET is having a great year so far ....... Bought Thai air in January which i recently sold for 35% profit........ I have a watchlist of 20 fundamentally sound 'growth' stocks - proven profit, good ROE, low debt etc

The Thai

SET has certainly had a pretty awesome year. One stock I mentioned on this thread is up 100% in less than two months (and 600% in the past year.) Still when the SET gets accused of being a great money maker (especially on past performance) it is usually getting in way over its own fighting weight. If Thai Airways is in your list of 'growth' stocks with proven profit, good ROE and low debt (while really it is just another shitty airline) then we know it is getting pretty close to the time to shut up shop for a while.

Well spotted on the THAI air stock- no its not in my watch list and its certainly not a growth stock. I bought that one because a) it was at its lowest price in several months/years in January and b. tourist arrivals were picking up c) a new and dynamic CEO was appointed

Edited April 7, 2010 by ExpatJ

[zorro1]

geez this thread is looking in re view mirror. How about suggestions ? stock by code , charts? , buy ,sell etc etc

Be nimble

Be pragmatic

Be diversified

Get someone who really knows what they're doing, in terms of portfolio allocation (totally differnet skill to fund management) to manage your assets

Expect the unexpected and be aware of bolts from the blue

Be verchy careful picking up nickels in front of bulldozers (chart following divorced from fundamentals)

Currency volatility is a major issue

Weak assets may be the ones that gain most in rising markets and fall most in the corrections

God that is boring , no wonder the masses stayed out of the last rally..'Chart following divorced from fundamentals'

are you suggesting T/A should be ignored? perhaps clarifying if your a s/t or l/t investor would help back your statement

Edited April 7, 2010 by zorro1

[Gambles]

besides a huge pile of cash my portfolio consisted in 2009 nearly exclusively of more than a dozen of said "individual components"... and that no matter how much you beg to differ or disagree it goes however without saying that my portfolio's total net increased in 2009 by "only" 44% because, being a cautious investor, i applied only a part of my cash.

Thank you. My point entirely.

QED

Sometimes, my friend, I seem to manage to have quite heated agreements with both yourself and Abrak!!

Gambles, i don't consider our arguments "heated" but quite normal. problem is that we are limited to the written word which (except adding smilies) has no intonation, no gestures and no real possibility for "tongue in cheek". if you are interested to experience heated discussions i will invite you to one of our annual meetings where two or sometimes three dozen investors, bankers, traders, speculators and last not least some who have no freaking idea about finances from all over this planet heat up after having consumed ample wine, booze and cocktails. the discussions cool down between 23.00 hours and midnight when the first ones are looking at their watches and ask "isn't it time to go to Walking Street?"

p.s. those few i mentioned who have no freaking idea about finances are not really participating in the heated discussions but keep enjoying their food and sipping their drinks. and when i nudge them "say something or at least ask some questions!" they might respond "why should we? isn't it enough that we award you princely by paying you a nice dinner once or even twice a year because you are handling our portfolios since 21 years? by the way, make sure to transfer xxk to my account at... you know where. got a new grandchild, wife wants to remodel the bathrooms, landscape company demands xxk to redo outside area... my bloody car is already three years old..."

I think I'd probably enjoy it !!

[Gambles]

geez this thread is looking in re view mirror. How about suggestions ? stock by code , charts? , buy ,sell etc etc

Be nimble

Be pragmatic

Be diversified

Get someone who really knows what they're doing, in terms of portfolio allocation (totally differnet skill to fund management) to manage your assets

Expect the unexpected and be aware of bolts from the blue

Be verchy careful picking up nickels in front of bulldozers (chart following divorced from fundamentals)

Currency volatility is a major issue

Weak assets may be the ones that gain most in rising markets and fall most in the corrections

God that is boring , no wonder the masses stayed out of the last rally..'Chart following divorced from fundamentals'

are you suggesting T/A should be ignored? perhaps clarifying if your a s/t or l/t investor would help back your statement

I'm happy to be boring! Especially when it's other people's money - boring is akin to responsible.

I hesitate about long and short term - long term would group with a lot of people who use that as an excuse for getting things wrong today

but I believe in asset allocation over asset selection or market timing and that generally means themes of at least 6-18 months, sometimes 3 years and longer

charts can be interesting but fundamentals are much more interesting

Edited April 7, 2010 by Gambles

[zorro1]

II

geez this thread is looking in re view mirror. How about suggestions ? stock by code , charts? , buy ,sell etc etc

Be nimble

Be pragmatic

Be diversified

Get someone who really knows what they're doing, in terms of portfolio allocation (totally differnet skill to fund management) to manage your assets

Expect the unexpected and be aware of bolts from the blue

Be verchy careful picking up nickels in front of bulldozers (chart following divorced from fundamentals)

Currency volatility is a major issue

Weak assets may be the ones that gain most in rising markets and fall most in the corrections

God that is boring , no wonder the masses stayed out of the last rally..'Chart following divorced from fundamentals'

are you suggesting T/A should be ignored? perhaps clarifying if your a s/t or l/t investor would help back your statement

I'm happy to be boring! Especially when it's other people's money - boring is akin to responsible.

I hesitate about long and short term - long term would group with a lot of people who use that as an excuse for getting things wrong today

but I believe in asset allocation over asset selection or market timing and that generally means themes of at least 6-18 months, sometimes 3 years and longer

charts can be interesting but fundamentals are much more interesting

I find charting and T/A is playing a huge part in my trading now. Example , Pen is my major holding. Has never poot a foot wrong each announcement smack on time or before and every single target achieved yet it follows t/a to the letter. Has gone from 2.8 to 6 back to 3.8 to 5.5 back to last weeks 4.2 and now 4.7 yet Fundementally unchanged. In each case once the trend was identified it became a self fullfilling prophecy back to the next support level edit........TV website wont allow me to spell check or place my cursor back a few lines to manually correct so i would need to wipe out the whole post. Why is this happening? anyway excuse the grammar folks

Edited April 8, 2010 by zorro1

[zorro1]

Everyone on tippy toes

[Gambles]

I find charting and T/A is playing a huge part in my trading now. Example , Pen is my major holding. Has never poot a foot wrong each announcement smack on time or before and every single target achieved yet it follows t/a to the letter. Has gone from 2.8 to 6 back to 3.8 to 5.5 back to last weeks 4.2 and now 4.7 yet Fundementally unchanged. In each case once the trend was identified it became a self fullfilling prophecy back to the next support level edit........TV website wont allow me to spell check or place my cursor back a few lines to manually correct so i would need to wipe out the whole post. Why is this happening? anyway excuse the grammar folks

each to their own...while personally I find the likes of Belkin make good reading and I'd say that technicals can have a role to play I'm very wary of pure chartists

Whilst personally I think that there's room to combine both approaches, I'd say that you can do very well if you rely purely on fundamentals whereas I've seen many too train wrecks over the years from guys blindly following the charts

[zorro1]

Everyone on tippy toes

that was a close call "

CNBC:

Stocks snapped a two-day losing streak Thursday after retailers delivered their best sales numbers in a decade.

[ExpatJ]

I find charting and T/A is playing a huge part in my trading now. Example , Pen is my major holding. Has never poot a foot wrong each announcement smack on time or before and every single target achieved yet it follows t/a to the letter. Has gone from 2.8 to 6 back to 3.8 to 5.5 back to last weeks 4.2 and now 4.7 yet Fundementally unchanged. In each case once the trend was identified it became a self fullfilling prophecy back to the next support level edit........TV website wont allow me to spell check or place my cursor back a few lines to manually correct so i would need to wipe out the whole post. Why is this happening? anyway excuse the grammar folks

each to their own...while personally I find the likes of Belkin make good reading and I'd say that technicals can have a role to play I'm very wary of pure chartists

Whilst personally I think that there's room to combine both approaches, I'd say that you can do very well if you rely purely on fundamentals whereas I've seen many too train wrecks over the years from guys blindly following the charts

I use the best of both worlds- identify the top 20 or so Thai growth stocks- then use charts to determine which one of these to buy and sell and when. THe biggest mistake i see made (and i did it myself in the past) is to buy stocks based on one news story you happen to read in a paper...

[loong]

........TV website wont allow me to spell check or place my cursor back a few lines to manually correct so i would need to wipe out the whole post. Why is this happening? anyway excuse the grammar folks

I can't be certain, but I had similar problems a while back with posting. In the top right corner of the reply screen is a button to switch between Standard and Rich Text Editor and clicking on this enabled me to relocate my cursor and spell-check. It's a double arrow in Pisces formation.

It may work for you

[ray23]

A nick in the armour?

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/home/2010/...t-30126839.html

[zorro1]

ha ha it worked! thanks Loong it was driving me nuts to the point I thought Midas had in installed a virus

[zorro1]

Dow popped through 11,000 briefly as a first test. Shows where the market wants to go, at least next week should be interesting. Wheres Midas? MEO re my previous chart looks very strong for a break out next week

[midas]

Dow popped through 11,000 briefly as a first test. Shows where the market wants to go, at least next week should be interesting. Wheres Midas? MEO re my previous chart looks very strong for a break out next week

Quite possibly up zorro.

But now I am getting so much entertainment from watching these clowns run the" market " up this way

on quite mediocre news...... and so i just want to see how this ends particularly when Greece defaults