The Stock Market

[ray23]

you guys must be super intelligent to be able to trade profitably and consistently by using only charts provided by your broker....

most thais are also sitting in front of monitors provided by their brokerage firms.... and traded their hearts out.... day in and day out....

my own niece was also doing the same thing in one of the bangkok bank trading rooms....

until she saw the possibility of multiplicity of setups provided by professional signal feeders which cost some 120 usd per month....

since then.... she has been sitting in her own office trading commodities around the globe.... at her own pace and convenience....

i really admire you super intelligent folks being able to make trades from brokerage trading screens provided by your brokers....

I think if you look back through this, these guys do a lot more then just charts. If I understand correctly the charts are just indicators. The fundamental's of the business are still important, as is the demand for the product offered.

My Broker just can't understand why I'm not trading everyday. That really seems to be the Thai way of the approach here. But value trading requires patience, me I have sold a bit to early a few times already, I've also purchased at the wrong times.

Perhaps learning the charting methods will help me with that. I decided early on, this way to much for a novice. So I joined a local stock club, my portfolio includes ten companies some do better then others. Some take more time to move. Even with professional advise I still look at the fundamentals.

Although everyone is talking about charting I really believe there is a lot more to it then that. Yes to have years and years of experience surely helps.

I have found that even when you ask basic question's on a thread like this where guys have the background they will tell you.

But in my thoughts learning all of this is work

[badge]

[...]

This area has been rather tumultuous[uK mining Co's], but has essentially been surpassed, plus European markets are called higher at the open. My model suggets the next possible profit taking level lies around 3.5%-4% above. BLT.L last closed at 1919.

Edit: To remain fair Im also showng a sell signal c1% above the last close, but due to the exuberance of futures Im assuming its void(i.e surpassed).

BLT.L opened at 2012 this AM, so bailed out.

System says as that resistance was void/surpassed by c1% that it should move higher to next area of imbalance, by another 4%.

System also showing sell signals on FTSE at 5350, 5490 then 5575/60, and on ESX at 2805/10 and 2830/35.

[...]

In fairness I covered my FTSE short from 5330 a few days ago at 4800 as my system flashed a buy signal at 4790 cash - the low, to the point.

I should therefore really be long, with a view to stop/reverse below 4790, ultimately seeking 4755, 4675 or 4515 on cash. However, I feel more inclined to simply reinstate a short, as opposed to reverse back to long.

FWIW I missed ESX shorts by 5 points as it topped at 2800 in the end, which is a shame as it declined 11%/310 points in a straight line. I did catch the FTSEs 10%/531 point decline from hi-to-low though, which is handy. As mentioned above just after I covered short, my model suggested I long, however I decided not to take the signal as my bias is short; obviously a bad move

BLT.L/Mining marginally exceeded my sell signal level by almost a percent, but i covered my longs as mentioned above. This exceeding of the signal price should void the sell signal and provide the next as a target, but it merely voided the signal by a slim margin, and then declined, around 15%.

As I sadly didnt take any Long signals last week, for now Im back focusing on short signs, of which I have on ESX(assuming it opens above fridays 2690 high - its currently called up 0.5%) at 2720, FTSE at 5180/90 and DAX around 6115/125, 6150 and 6180. BLT.L would show a sell around 2.5% above fridays close of 1852.

The current short term trend is clearly up, so as one would with any counter trrend position, ensure very cautious risk management - If index signals are voided, a failed signal is often a very good opposite signal, so if the sell levels breakout one should really reverse to long and seek the next area.

All figures cash by the way.

[Parvis]

Double Post

Edited July 12, 2010 by Parvis

[Parvis]

Badge you said:

The current short term trend is clearly up, so as one would with any counter trrend position, ensure very cautious risk management - If index signals are voided, a failed signal is often a very good opposite signal, so if the sell levels breakout one should really reverse to long and seek the next area.

Which brings up an interesting point "in my mind":

A long term Stockmarket derivative trader (per his claim) ask me whether I am "a trend trader" or a "counter trend trader". To which I replied:

1) I am not a trader at all

2) It seems rather counterintuitive to trade against what you perceive as the trend.

Perhaps you Badge - or someone else can explain what a "trend trader" and a "counter trend trader" is.

If the definitions is whether to go long or short - well sure I prefer to go short rather than long many times - since time then is in my favor.

Edited July 12, 2010 by Parvis

[BlackJack]

a trend trader is one that wears nice suits and ties and a counter trend trader is like the opposite

whether to go long or short depends on the restaurant and what time of day it is

basic black is always better

sorry i couldnt resist

I do not use charts either as they only tell you whats being manipulated up or down or sideways

[lannarebirth]

you guys must be super intelligent to be able to trade profitably and consistently by using only charts provided by your broker....

most thais are also sitting in front of monitors provided by their brokerage firms.... and traded their hearts out.... day in and day out....

my own niece was also doing the same thing in one of the bangkok bank trading rooms....

until she saw the possibility of multiplicity of setups provided by professional signal feeders which cost some 120 usd per month....

since then.... she has been sitting in her own office trading commodities around the globe.... at her own pace and convenience....

i really admire you super intelligent folks being able to make trades from brokerage trading screens provided by your brokers....

I used to be super intelligent but I find I get stupider as the years go by. Sigh.... I don't use the charts provided by my broker as they don't allow for the programming that my prior post to you described and they fall short in a number of other areas too. Still the brokerage software supports a lot of nice stuff like on chart trading plug ins and other cool stuff. To answer your prior question about my trades I'll say my daytrading

initial position is the same as your swing trade positions. I doubt we use the same stop losses as I like to fine tune things a bit more than you judging from the drawdown you posted.

[Parvis]

Per lannarebirth

I used to be super intelligent but I find I get stupider as the years go by. Sigh.... I don't use the charts provided by my broker as they don't allow for the programming that my prior post to you described and they fall short in a number of other areas too. Still the brokerage software supports a lot of nice stuff like on chart trading plug ins and other cool stuff. To answer your prior question about my trades I'll say my daytrading

initial position is the same as your swing trade positions. I doubt we use the same stop losses as I like to fine tune things a bit more than you judging from the drawdown you posted.

For the records - I donot use my Brokers charts either. He does not provide any (other than defaults for demonstration purposes). But rather provides charting software of 2 types totally modifyable/programmable, direct access and support of many types. Since I am only interested in US StockMarket - Commodity charts for me are not necessary.

Edited July 12, 2010 by Parvis

[badge]

<BR>Badge you said:<BR><BR>The current short term trend is clearly up, so as one would with any counter trrend position, ensure very cautious risk management - If index signals are voided, a failed signal is often a very good opposite signal, so if the sell levels breakout one should really reverse to long and seek the next area.  <IMG class=bbc_emoticon alt= src="http://static.thaivisa.com/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/smile.gif"><BR><BR><BR><BR>Which brings up an interesting point "in my mind":<BR>A long term Stockmarket derivative trader (per his claim) ask me whether I am "a trend trader" or a "counter trend trader". To which I replied:<BR><BR>1) I am not a trader at all<BR>2) It seems rather counterintuitive to trade against what you perceive as the trend.<BR><BR>Perhaps you Badge - or someone else can explain what a "trend trader" and a "counter trend trader" is.<BR>If the definitions is whether to go long or short - well sure I prefer to go short rather than long many times - since time then is in my favor.<BR>

<BR><BR><BR>I dont really understand your comments Parvis?<BR><BR>Personally its immaterial to me whether someone wants to pigeonhole someone as a trend or counter-trend trader? It would presumably depend on what timeframe one follows, or what they believe constitutes a 'trend'.<BR><BR>BTW, did'nt you mention previously that you dont go short?

[Parvis]

Badge

Never mentioned I don't go short (write) - in fact I go short often - but only with derivatives.

My question pertains really to a comment from an acqaintance - his comment to me just did not make sense.

With derivative trading I would think timeframe is always comparitively short.

Edited July 12, 2010 by Parvis

[badge]

Badge

Never mentioned I don't go short (write) - in fact I go short often - but only with derivatives.

My question pertains really to a comment from an acqaintance - his comment to me just did not make sense.

With derivative trading I would think timeframe is always comparitively short.

I imagine when you refer to derivatives, you refer to futures and options?

As I mentioned previously, to keep bandying the term 'derivatives' about is a misnomer. Its far too diverse a term.

Try telling SCDO swap holders their timeframe is always short.

[Parvis]

I imagine when you refer to derivatives, you refer to futures and options?

As I mentioned previously, to keep bandying the term 'derivatives' about is a misnomer. Its far too diverse a term.

Try telling SCDO swap holders their timeframe is always short.

What Does Derivative Mean? A security whose price is dependent upon or derived from one or more underlying assets. The derivative itself is merely a contract between two or more parties. Its value is determined by fluctuations in the underlying asset. The most common underlying assets include stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, interest rates and market indexes. Most derivatives are characterized by high leverage.

As I am sure you are aware of - I am trading in the US StockMarket - therefore - which derivatives do you think I make reference to?

Edited July 13, 2010 by Parvis

[midas]

For those of you who also follow VIX - etc.

All 3 charts are of 9 days 5 min. Left is VIX - upper right is NYA - lower right is "Tick"

"Tick" at present show negative divergence.

Parvis

Do you agree or disagree with this assesment from today ?

" On July 1 when the market was down over 300 points and it felt like the world was just about to end, we put out the following alert: Taking Profits in Inverse ETF Positions in which we closed our inverse ETF positions. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has rallied almost 600 points in just seven trading days since that call. The inverse ETFs that we covered for substantial profits had a powerful reversal just as warned. In that alert we also wrote the following:

The market is getting very oversold and the risk is high being long or short right here. On 5/6/10 the market looked like it was ready to collapse. We then had a powerful rally off the Flash Crash lows. The markets then made a new low on 5/25/10 before staging another rally. On 6/8/10 the market made another new low and looked like it was about to collapse but once again staged a powerful rally. Each time the market looked like it was about to fall off a cliff, it had some outside force help it rally."

Well, that big rally is happening now because once again a powerful outside force intervened to stop prices from collapsing. Folks, these aren't natural, free-flowing markets we're dealing with here. If they were, then the market would more than likely have crashed to the July 2009 lows by now. As much as they may try to prevent a collapse to the July or March 2009 lows, they will more than likely fail to prevent such a crash from happening. In fact, a crash is now happening but in very slow motion. How do we know? Because the 50-day moving average has pierced the 200 DMA and the dreaded black cross is now taking place on the DJIA and the S&P 500. It will soon take place on the NASDAQ and the Russell 2000. We mentioned in a recent note that often times during the death cross a final rally takes place. That rally happens because prices have already fallen hard and are often due for an oversold bounce. We believe this is that final rally before we see waves of selling and total capitulation take place. When you see the VIX cross 50 then you'll know that we've just entered the capitulation phase . If we're correct, and we hope we're not, then we may see intense levels of fear like that of 1929, 1987, and 2008 "

Edited July 13, 2010 by midas

[Parvis]

Midas,

Essentially I do not agree with notions of "powerfull force (such as PPT)" - keeping Market up - but as I have always insisted the Market is - as I call it "kept orderly". This implies "not letting it crash" - but with some "ingeneous methods" which have little to do with "manipulation for a profit".

At present I see the Market as heading lower - for me definitely a "tradeable lower". I look primarily at "positive divergence and negative divergence". On 7-10 we had the start of negative divergence which now has turned yet more negative.

I always read any comments of "embellished history" after the fact by commentators with "a grain of salt" - obviously designed as a method of "Marketting" whatever they would like to be selling.

Edited July 13, 2010 by Parvis

[nakachalet]

For those of you who also follow VIX - etc.

All 3 charts are of 9 days 5 min. Left is VIX - upper right is NYA - lower right is "Tick"

"Tick" at present show negative divergence.

Parvis

Do you agree or disagree with this assesment from today ?

.... How do we know? Because the 50-day moving average has pierced the 200 DMA and the dreaded black cross is now taking place on the DJIA and the S&P 500.

It will soon take place on the NASDAQ and the Russell 2000.

We mentioned in a recent note that often times during the “death cross” a final rally takes place. That rally happens because prices have already fallen hard and are often due for an oversold bounce.

We believe this is that final rally before we see waves of selling and total capitulation take place.

When you see the VIX cross 50 then you'll know that we've just entered the capitulation phase . If we're correct, and we hope we're not, then we may see intense levels of fear like that of 1929, 1987, and 2008 "

midas, the golden touch...

i'll be watching with unusual interest.... the materialization of .... intense levels of fear like that of 1929, 1987 and 2008....

most traders and gurus would not put themselves out in the limb.... but you did.... and i admire that kind of rare dare devil propensity and characteristics immensely....

i was around during 1975 crises and also 1987 as you mentioned .... with price freeze, hiring freeze, wage freeze et al.... it seems like yesteryear....

it was not the end as many predicted then .... and imho it won't be the end of current economic system now either.... most wage earners would be perhaps much leaner and meaner....

the worst news is.... there are already many waiting on the sideline.... just waiting for the opportunity to short.... and the same group again will be more than happy to go long again reacquiring what they unloaded a few short months earlier.... it is truly a dog eats dog world in this sense.... dreadful, awfully dreadful even to think of it....

[midas]

For those of you who also follow VIX - etc.

All 3 charts are of 9 days 5 min. Left is VIX - upper right is NYA - lower right is "Tick"

"Tick" at present show negative divergence.

Parvis

Do you agree or disagree with this assesment from today ?

.... How do we know? Because the 50-day moving average has pierced the 200 DMA and the dreaded black cross is now taking place on the DJIA and the S&P 500.

It will soon take place on the NASDAQ and the Russell 2000.

We mentioned in a recent note that often times during the “death cross” a final rally takes place. That rally happens because prices have already fallen hard and are often due for an oversold bounce.

We believe this is that final rally before we see waves of selling and total capitulation take place.

When you see the VIX cross 50 then you'll know that we've just entered the capitulation phase . If we're correct, and we hope we're not, then we may see intense levels of fear like that of 1929, 1987, and 2008 "

midas, the golden touch...

i'll be watching with unusual interest.... the materialization of .... intense levels of fear like that of 1929, 1987 and 2008....

most traders and gurus would not put themselves out in the limb.... but you did.... and i admire that kind of rare dare devil propensity and characteristics immensely....

i was around during 1975 crises and also 1987 as you mentioned .... with price freeze, hiring freeze, wage freeze et al.... it seems like yesteryear....

it was not the end as many predicted then .... and imho it won't be the end of current economic system now either.... most wage earners would be perhaps much leaner and meaner....

the worst news is.... there are already many waiting on the sideline.... just waiting for the opportunity to short.... and the same group again will be more than happy to go long again reacquiring what they unloaded a few short months earlier.... it is truly a dog eats dog world in this sense.... dreadful, awfully dreadful even to think of it....

nakachalet. oh i get it ...........you mean like the Japanese equities market which has done so well since the 90's ?

[zorro1]

This one I bought just recently. T/A looks good

SVL

Based upon the information the Company has released to date and the recent injection of serious funds, I would expect a solid 6-12mths of continual revaluation as they increase their High Grade Silver resource and move into an early start up.

Chart looks looks like SVL will break hard to the upside with trend reversal and bollinger squeeze, stochcastic turning up with plenty of room in the channel.

Its highly illiquid however fundamentally sound ,cashed up. IMO there is a 30% short term gain here. You wont get that with BHP so only for Risk investors. DYOR this is my opinion only.

P.S

Would be nice to see what some of the more "sophisticated investors" are doing. Im open to learning whatever I can and sure there are many others. Even Midas may dip his toe in

well Zorro continues to post real time price time with 1 little ol penny stock SVL.AX (enjoy the philosophical debates here but you guys could be a bunch of pensioners LOL). last post SVL closed 9.8c (my avg 9.5)

Im holding a few hundred K so very tidy gains in a several days. If the dow holds up the profit is done deal. Just want to pop up another chart for Lanna or any one else to look at and offer an analysis. Not mine but a top chartist. my chart is simple it auto detects momentum change. Thats all I need to know to start analyzing:=)

This coy fits all parameters.

1 . just raised cash

2. fundamentals brilliant high grade silver

3. chart brilliant

4 . tiny market cap 9.5 million. Big gains looking likely

Good luck all traders

Edited July 13, 2010 by zorro1

[badge]

I imagine when you refer to derivatives, you refer to futures and options?

As I mentioned previously, to keep bandying the term 'derivatives' about is a misnomer. Its far too diverse a term.

Try telling SCDO swap holders their timeframe is always short.

What Does Derivative Mean? A security whose price is dependent upon or derived from one or more underlying assets. The derivative itself is merely a contract between two or more parties. Its value is determined by fluctuations in the underlying asset. The most common underlying assets include stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, interest rates and market indexes. Most derivatives are characterized by high leverage.

As I am sure you are aware of - I am trading in the US StockMarket - therefore - which derivatives do you think I make reference to?

Well Mr P, all Im aware of is that any word exchanged with you is a word wasted.

Unless of course those words are a rearrangement of 'with misguided notions of their place', 'a meaningless and irksome jester' and 'in grand scheme of things'.

[ray23]

This one I bought just recently. T/A looks good

SVL

Based upon the information the Company has released to date and the recent injection of serious funds, I would expect a solid 6-12mths of continual revaluation as they increase their High Grade Silver resource and move into an early start up.

Chart looks looks like SVL will break hard to the upside with trend reversal and bollinger squeeze, stochcastic turning up with plenty of room in the channel.

Its highly illiquid however fundamentally sound ,cashed up. IMO there is a 30% short term gain here. You wont get that with BHP so only for Risk investors. DYOR this is my opinion only.

P.S

Would be nice to see what some of the more "sophisticated investors" are doing. Im open to learning whatever I can and sure there are many others. Even Midas may dip his toe in

well Zorro continues to post real time price time with 1 little ol penny stock SVL.AX (enjoy the philosophical debates here but you guys could be a bunch of pensioners LOL). last post SVL closed 9.8c (my avg 9.5)

Im holding a few hundred K so very tidy gains in a several days. If the dow holds up the profit is done deal. Just want to pop up another chart for Lanna or any one else to look at and offer an analysis. Not mine but a top chartist. my chart is simple it auto detects momentum change. Thats all I need to know to start analyzing:=)

This coy fits all parameters.

1 . just raised cash

2. fundamentals brilliant high grade silver

3. chart brilliant

4 . tiny market cap 9.5 million. Big gains looking likely

Good luck all traders

Ok time for stupid question number, Heck lost count. On what I believe is the SMA chart there are green and red boxes. What do those tell you?

[zorro1]

Hi ray, they are candlesticks. If you google it you will find about a years worth of reading :-)

SVL closed up again 11c hasnt even broken out yet , Im waiting for drill results to pick up another 20-30% before exit :-)

Edited July 14, 2010 by zorro1

[zorro1]

hey derivative traders no need to stop your chatter just because were on different wave lengths. I think a lot of traders look down on Penny stock traders as if its some how inferior , or thats the impression I got. Its very possible to double your money on well researched T/A and F/a p/stock all the undies of steel required. Im targeting silver as the general conception is its way undervalued ATM. Any thoughts on that here?

[ray23]

Thanks

[BlackJack]

hey derivative traders no need to stop your chatter just because were on different wave lengths. I think a lot of traders look down on Penny stock traders as if its some how inferior , or thats the impression I got. Its very possible to double your money on well researched T/A and F/a p/stock all the undies of steel required. Im targeting silver as the general conception is its way undervalued ATM. Any thoughts on that here?

yes agree

i bought into goldmine here in Thailand only because it produced more silver than gold

more to come on the silver front

[BlackJack]

Chinese ratings agency downgrades USA to AA and UK, France to AA-

Chinese ratings agency Dagong downgrades the U.S. to AA with negative outlook. The gold price has risen - are they connected?

Author: Lawrence Williams

Posted: Tuesday , 13 Jul 2010

Edited July 14, 2010 by BlackJack

[nakachalet]

hey derivative traders no need to stop your chatter just because were on different wave lengths. I think a lot of traders look down on Penny stock traders as if its some how inferior , or thats the impression I got. Its very possible to double your money on well researched T/A and F/a p/stock all the undies of steel required. Im targeting silver as the general conception is its way undervalued ATM. Any thoughts on that here?

i am with zorro1 here....

it really does not matter which markets you trade, which countries you trade in or how you trade....

it is always the bottom line that really matters....

perhaps, in time.... when many of us see your profitable trades.... and subsequently understand your positions and methodologies....

we too would like to venture out and join you and learn from you.... cheers.... :jap:

[Abrak]

Im targeting silver as the general conception is its way undervalued ATM. Any thoughts on that here?

Yes.... If the 'general conception' is that it is way undervalued, then almost certainly it isnt.

What this has to do with stockmarkets, I have no idea.

[zorro1]

Im targeting silver as the general conception is its way undervalued ATM. Any thoughts on that here?

Yes.... If the 'general conception' is that it is way undervalued, then almost certainly it isnt.

What this has to do with stockmarkets, I have no idea.

Your first point may or may not be true.

"What this has to do with stockmarkets, I have no idea."

If the price of silver were to collapse, what effect do you think it may have on the s/p of silver stock? particularly on mines about to release a PFS or producers?

Edited July 14, 2010 by zorro1

[zorro1]

hey derivative traders no need to stop your chatter just because were on different wave lengths. I think a lot of traders look down on Penny stock traders as if its some how inferior , or thats the impression I got. Its very possible to double your money on well researched T/A and F/a p/stock all the undies of steel required. Im targeting silver as the general conception is its way undervalued ATM. Any thoughts on that here?

i am with zorro1 here....

it really does not matter which markets you trade, which countries you trade in or how you trade....

it is always the bottom line that really matters....

perhaps, in time.... when many of us see your profitable trades.... and subsequently understand your positions and methodologies....

we too would like to venture out and join you and learn from you.... cheers.... :jap:

Finegold thats why were all here. All good IMO, much to learn from my end but have been branded an Amateur by some so i should just pack up and leave? . Ray 23 is green as they get but good he can ask questions basic as he has without being ignored or considered to green

[Abrak]

Im targeting silver as the general conception is its way undervalued ATM. Any thoughts on that here?

Yes.... If the 'general conception' is that it is way undervalued, then almost certainly it isnt.

What this has to do with stockmarkets, I have no idea.

Your first point may or may not be true.

"What this has to do with stockmarkets, I have no idea."

If the price of silver were to collapse, what effect do you think it may have on the s/p of silver stock? particularly on mines about to release a PFS or producers?

Well logically, my first point is almost certainly bound to be true, but your underlying assumption that 'silver is generally conceived as undervalued' is less likely to be true.

Your second question you should really be able to work out for yourself before you start investing in stocks. It should also be really obvious from your 'I am investing because the price of silver is 'generally conceived' to be undervalued.'

Anyway, clearly if you and Nakachalet wish to reduce this thread to 'please help' 'guide' to investing then that is how it will turn turnout. I dont want to put you two guys off wishing to learn stuff and work out how to invest but at least the topic should have been headed 'Stockmarket' 'A beginners guide'.

[zorro1]

Im targeting silver as the general conception is its way undervalued ATM. Any thoughts on that here?

Yes.... If the 'general conception' is that it is way undervalued, then almost certainly it isnt.

What this has to do with stockmarkets, I have no idea.

Your first point may or may not be true.

"What this has to do with stockmarkets, I have no idea."

If the price of silver were to collapse, what effect do you think it may have on the s/p of silver stock? particularly on mines about to release a PFS or producers?

Well logically, my first point is almost certainly bound to be true, but your underlying assumption that 'silver is generally conceived as undervalued' is less likely to be true.

Your second question you should really be able to work out for yourself before you start investing in stocks. It should also be really obvious from your 'I am investing because the price of silver is 'generally conceived' to be undervalued.'

Anyway, clearly if you and Nakachalet wish to reduce this thread to 'please help' 'guide' to investing then that is how it will turn turnout. I dont want to put you two guys off wishing to learn stuff and work out how to invest but at least the topic should have been headed 'Stockmarket' 'A beginners guide'.

"What this has to do with stockmarkets, I have no idea.

Mate just trying to help you out with your question. But your just baiting a BIG no no so will leave you to your non disclosed trades and ramblings.

[Abrak]

But your just baiting a BIG.

BIG = Believe In God?

Good luck on 'faith' investing.