The Stock Market

[badge]

I found a Long Term SET Index chart too, incase anyone was interested

Knowing next to nothing about the SET, its traits or nuances, I would suggest some sort of correction may be on the cards soon(Im in good company on that Im sure ), but longer term it looks very constructive doesnt it, with 14-year highs very close. Perhaps 1100 +/- could even eventually warrant a visit?

[badge]

[...]

I had a sell signal on UK's ZU0/FTSE 100 last tuesday, which I took, along with UK banks and miners on wednesday, which I didnt take.

edit: I should add the signal is void on either a) a buy signal, or, a move above the previous signal price(5405 cash).

ESX has one at 2845, and I ran it over SPX briefly cos I know your all big traders and prefer the ES, and 1130 cash looked likely.

So in conclusion, FTSE has sell already, other share markets and commods look good for a little more upside first perhaps.

[...]

Shares and commods traded higher; of the market prices cited, ESX reversed stoutly from 2847(2 points out) and SPX reversed at 1129(1 point out). FTSE is still oscillating, menacingly around the 5405 level, also having previously reversed stoutly.

As added in the original posts 'edit' above, any higher high/buy signal voids.

Naturally how much leeway, or where one puts a stop, is down to ones own judgement.

FTSE cash flashed a buy signal late y'day @ 5140(low was 5160), with around 5080 and 5010/15 looking likely thereafter.

SPX cash would also have shown a buy at 1063, but I dont trade or follow SPX, and the moments been and gone as it bounced 9 handles from 1064, so irrelevant. Infact as FTSE has yet to decline enough to reach its buy prices, that SPX signal may well be void by a lower print, which might then point to around 1052.5, or even 1030 as possible buys.

That said, as SPX is superfluous to my P+L I dont really monitor it. My model just 'got lucky' with a sell signal right at the high

[midas]

Retail Investors Don't Care If Stocks Are Up Or Down, They Just Want Out -

Record 15th Weekly Outflow From Domestic Stock Funds

ICI reports that the week ended August 11 saw a record 15th weekly outflow from domestic stock mutual funds, this time of $2.1 billion. YTD outflows are now just under $48 billion. Hedge funds are not the only ones who missed the miraculous and completely senseless July stock ramp: retail pulled out $13.1 billion in the same time, and has followed up by redeeming another $4.1 billion in August so far: nothing matters anymore - stocks can go up, they can go down: it is all the same to the one segment of the stock market responsible for the biggest portion of market capitalization.

[midas]

“ Here is a list of the “ Tipping Points “ which have become abundantly evident over the last few years.

Each Tipping Point has the capability of individually being a catalyst to advance the sector marked in red above.

We can never be sure of the sequence and time frame of any particular Tipping Point. Like a house of cards you never know which one, or what movement will precisely bring the house of cards down. What you know however, is that it will happen – you just need to be patient and prepared.

http://lcmgroupe.home.comcast.net/~lcmgroupe/Tipping_Points.htm

Edited August 22, 2010 by midas

[Abrak]

Its an aging dichotomy.

Or you could just say it is a rather scary looking chart.

[Parvis]

Its an aging dichotomy.

Or you could just say it is a rather scary looking chart.

One could also say - Midas dire comments - are a good Market Indicator.

Whenever he comes up with more rehashed negative comments - expect the Market to go up another 500 points.

[midas]

Its an aging dichotomy.

Or you could just say it is a rather scary looking chart.

One could also say - Midas dire comments - are a good Market Indicator.

Whenever he comes up with more rehashed negative comments - expect the Market to go up another 500 points.

希望是現實否認。

[zorro1]

Its an aging dichotomy.

Or you could just say it is a rather scary looking chart.

One could also say - Midas dire comments - are a good Market Indicator.

Whenever he comes up with more rehashed negative comments - expect the Market to go up another 500 points.

希望是現實否認。

Interesting to see the big guns fighting with midas. I did that errrrm around the beginning of this thread. guess im good at picking trends

[midas]

Interesting to see the big guns fighting with midas. I did that errrrm around the beginning of this thread. guess im good at picking trends

Oh yes I remember that.......now please remind me.....how many times was it that you absolutely insisted it was

a " V " shaped recovery ?

In fact they wrote about you yesterday

" Remember all the bulls and cheerleaders ( specifically one named zorro1 )late last year and into this one talking about a V-shaped recovery? They were making their projections based on what had happened in past recessions. I (and others) argued that that data was meaningless, as it did not reflect the fact that a balance-sheet recession requires years of deleveraging, is inherently deflationary, and all the factors that produce the normal "V" are no longer in play. Bank lending is still dropping. Savings rates go up. Debt gets paid down. Governments run into limits as to how much they can stimulate the economy without creating large and destabilizing debt. Central banks push rates to zero, and then what? This is a far different environment than we have had for the last 70 years. Using past performance to predict future results when the future environment is significantly different than the period in which the data was collected is misleading at best and worthless at worst, leading to bad decisions. Much better to deal with reality "

http://www.businessinsider.com/john-mauldin-wheres-my-v-shaped-recovery-2010-8

Edited August 22, 2010 by midas

[phomsanuk]

Recently I read these,

2 different sources, <P class=yiv1525588138yiv963649516yiv1078017810MsoNormal>"The Dow Jones Industrial Average has made no net progress since spring 1999. <P class=yiv1525588138yiv963649516yiv1078017810MsoNormal>In other words, if you invested in stocks over the past 11 years, there's a good chance you wasted your time at best -- your money at worst. <P class=yiv1525588138yiv963649516yiv1078017810MsoNormal>Now if you were able to ride the bubble and get out before the pop, we commend you. You must be a savvy trader or just plain lucky. <P class=yiv1525588138yiv963649516yiv1078017810MsoNormal>But for the vast majority of people reading this letter, the past 11 years in the personal investment world has been a big bust. Wouldn't it have been nice to know you didn't have to risk money to make money for the past 11 years? <P class=yiv1525588138yiv963649516yiv1078017810MsoNormal>That's right, cash has outperformed stocks now for more than 10 years running -- and with ZERO risk. You won't hear that on financial television". <P class=yiv1525588138yiv963649516yiv1078017810MsoNormal> "Two enormous recessions. Unparalleled government bailouts. An entire lost decade of growth.It's been more than 10 years since the tech boom, and most of us have about the same net worth as we had in the first place -- or possibly less. The result of this flat and oftentimes irrational stock market has been a media rush to call "an end" for the average buy-and-hold investor."Not very encouraging...

[zorro1]

Interesting to see the big guns fighting with midas. I did that errrrm around the beginning of this thread. guess im good at picking trends

Oh yes I remember that.......now please remind me.....how many times was it that you absolutely insisted it was

a " V " shaped recovery ?

In fact they wrote about you yesterday

" Remember all the bulls and cheerleaders ( specifically one named zorro1 )late last year and into this one talking about a V-shaped recovery? They were making their projections based on what had happened in past recessions. I (and others) argued that that data was meaningless, as it did not reflect the fact that a balance-sheet recession requires years of deleveraging, is inherently deflationary, and all the factors that produce the normal "V" are no longer in play. Bank lending is still dropping. Savings rates go up. Debt gets paid down. Governments run into limits as to how much they can stimulate the economy without creating large and destabilizing debt. Central banks push rates to zero, and then what? This is a far different environment than we have had for the last 70 years. Using past performance to predict future results when the future environment is significantly different than the period in which the data was collected is misleading at best and worthless at worst, leading to bad decisions. Much better to deal with reality "

http://www.businessinsider.com/john-mauldin-wheres-my-v-shaped-recovery-2010-8

i sold out. dont care about v ..L..or S recovery. Midas you are truly a dill. what was the Dow at the beginning of this thread?

I agree with everyone else re your age . No way you claim to be your age little fella I.Q doesnt stack up

[Abrak]

i sold out. dont care about v ..L..or S recovery. Midas you are truly a dill. what was the Dow at the beginning of this thread?

I agree with everyone else re your age . No way you claim to be your age little fella I.Q doesnt stack up

Zorro,

Just be careful where you go with this argument. Essentially Midas is not a market participant so your understanding that a market can go up despite very poor economic fundamentals is simply a fact rather than a reflection of anything based on a non-player.

Actually I agree with the previous poster that your comments on a 'V' shaped recovery were ridiculous based on the stockmarket performance but it was pretty obvious that you didnt believe them. If people actually believed your comments that 'you should throw your fundamentals out of the window' 'that there is a 'V' shaped economic recovery' then you would be a much better indicator of sentiment than Midas. And while you do not respect markets and think you are a 'master' of them you are always vulnerable as an investor. On the simple basis that you do not understand the game is not about being cleverer than the fool.

[zorro1]

i sold out. dont care about v ..L..or S recovery. Midas you are truly a dill. what was the Dow at the beginning of this thread?

I agree with everyone else re your age . No way you claim to be your age little fella I.Q doesnt stack up

Zorro,

Just be careful where you go with this argument. Essentially Midas is not a market participant so your understanding that a market can go up despite very poor economic fundamentals is simply a fact rather than a reflection of anything based on a non-player.

Actually I agree with the previous poster that your comments on a 'V' shaped recovery were ridiculous based on the stockmarket performance but it was pretty obvious that you didnt believe them. If people actually believed your comments that 'you should throw your fundamentals out of the window' 'that there is a 'V' shaped economic recovery' then you would be a much better indicator of sentiment than Midas. And while you do not respect markets and think you are a 'master' of them you are always vulnerable as an investor. On the simple basis that you do not understand the game is not about being cleverer than the fool.

The trend is your friend. It was V when trending.

Today its around an L

tomorrow I may go short for a double dip.

However at the time of my postings I was forced to, had to believe in the V trend. I think you know what I mean

[Abrak]

The trend is your friend. It was V when trending.

Today its around an L

tomorrow I may go short for a double dip.

However at the time of my postings I was forced to, had to believe in the V trend. I think you know what I mean

No Zorro,

I totally disagree. What you knew was that markets had to bounce. You didnt know how far. And actually you lack of knowledge of economic fundamentals was to your advantage. When the markets bounced you could say they indicated that there might be a 'v' shaped recovery while at the bottom they indicated 'Armaggedon'. Economic fundamentals had to bounce so did the market whatever you beieved. If you genuinely believe the market movement indicated a 'V' shaped recovery you are simply foolish. And as it hasnt gone down and there clearly isnt going to be one you didnt need to believe in it in the first place.

And you cant disagree. You now believe in an L shaped recovery and the market is exactly at the same place when you believed in a V shaped recovery.

Edited August 22, 2010 by Abrak

[zorro1]

The trend is your friend. It was V when trending.

Today its around an L

tomorrow I may go short for a double dip.

However at the time of my postings I was forced to, had to believe in the V trend. I think you know what I mean

No Zorro,

I totally disagree. What you knew was that markets had to bounce. You didnt know how far. And actually you lack of knowledge of economic fundamentals was to your advantage. When the markets bounced you could say they indicated that there might be a 'v' shaped recovery while at the bottom they indicated 'Armaggedon'. Economic fundamentals had to bounce so did the market whatever you beieved. If you genuinely believe the market movement indicated a 'V' shaped recovery you are simply foolish. And as it hasnt gone down and there clearly isnt going to be one you didnt need to believe in it in the first place.

The market to me is about sentiment. You cant deny the V sentiment at the time.

There is no guarantee we are not still in a V recovery

[midas]

Interesting to see the big guns fighting with midas. I did that errrrm around the beginning of this thread. guess im good at picking trends

Oh yes I remember that.......now please remind me.....how many times was it that you absolutely insisted it was

a " V " shaped recovery ?

In fact they wrote about you yesterday

" Remember all the bulls and cheerleaders ( specifically one named zorro1 )late last year and into this one talking about a V-shaped recovery? They were making their projections based on what had happened in past recessions. I (and others) argued that that data was meaningless, as it did not reflect the fact that a balance-sheet recession requires years of deleveraging, is inherently deflationary, and all the factors that produce the normal "V" are no longer in play. Bank lending is still dropping. Savings rates go up. Debt gets paid down. Governments run into limits as to how much they can stimulate the economy without creating large and destabilizing debt. Central banks push rates to zero, and then what? This is a far different environment than we have had for the last 70 years. Using past performance to predict future results when the future environment is significantly different than the period in which the data was collected is misleading at best and worthless at worst, leading to bad decisions. Much better to deal with reality "

http://www.businessinsider.com/john-mauldin-wheres-my-v-shaped-recovery-2010-8

i sold out. dont care about v ..L..or S recovery. Midas you are truly a dill. what was the Dow at the beginning of this thread?

I agree with everyone else re your age . No way you claim to be your age little fella I.Q doesnt stack up

Oh really ?????

Well you certainly ranted and raved on about it enough earlier in this thread

As i said at the time you were / are a straight out gambler with no skills whatsoever

and you have even admitted it earlier.

A person on a roulette wheel could have acheived just as much as you

“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” –

Mark Twain

[midas]

The trend is your friend. It was V when trending.

Today its around an L

tomorrow I may go short for a double dip.

However at the time of my postings I was forced to, had to believe in the V trend. I think you know what I mean

No Zorro,

I totally disagree. What you knew was that markets had to bounce. You didnt know how far. And actually you lack of knowledge of economic fundamentals was to your advantage. When the markets bounced you could say they indicated that there might be a 'v' shaped recovery while at the bottom they indicated 'Armaggedon'. Economic fundamentals had to bounce so did the market whatever you beieved. If you genuinely believe the market movement indicated a 'V' shaped recovery you are simply foolish. And as it hasnt gone down and there clearly isnt going to be one you didnt need to believe in it in the first place.

The market to me is about sentiment. You cant deny the V sentiment at the time.

There is no guarantee we are not still in a V recovery

This says it all.......you really can't be serious ??? You are joking right ?

And you talk about my I.Q.

[zorro1]

Interesting to see the big guns fighting with midas. I did that errrrm around the beginning of this thread. guess im good at picking trends

Oh yes I remember that.......now please remind me.....how many times was it that you absolutely insisted it was

a " V " shaped recovery ?

In fact they wrote about you yesterday

" Remember all the bulls and cheerleaders ( specifically one named zorro1 )late last year and into this one talking about a V-shaped recovery? They were making their projections based on what had happened in past recessions. I (and others) argued that that data was meaningless, as it did not reflect the fact that a balance-sheet recession requires years of deleveraging, is inherently deflationary, and all the factors that produce the normal "V" are no longer in play. Bank lending is still dropping. Savings rates go up. Debt gets paid down. Governments run into limits as to how much they can stimulate the economy without creating large and destabilizing debt. Central banks push rates to zero, and then what? This is a far different environment than we have had for the last 70 years. Using past performance to predict future results when the future environment is significantly different than the period in which the data was collected is misleading at best and worthless at worst, leading to bad decisions. Much better to deal with reality "

http://www.businessinsider.com/john-mauldin-wheres-my-v-shaped-recovery-2010-8

i sold out. dont care about v ..L..or S recovery. Midas you are truly a dill. what was the Dow at the beginning of this thread?

I agree with everyone else re your age . No way you claim to be your age little fella I.Q doesnt stack up

Oh really ?????

Well you certainly ranted and raved on about it enough earlier in this thread

As i said at the time you were / are a straight out gambler with no skills whatsoever

and you have even admitted it earlier.

A person on a roulette wheel could have acheived just as much as you

“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” –

Mark Twain

midas , market had to bounce. I got in way before this thread (to early)

put a whole house on it. ( not kidding)

would i put a house on black or red?

NEVER EVER

"A person on a roulette wheel could have acheived just as much as you"

Im speechless...

Handing you back to parvis and abrak now

rice boy

[zorro1]

Midas, will try one last time to explain casino vs market in a nice story

Zorro and midas became friends on a trip to monte carlo.

At the casino midas says i have 500k to invest

zorro says , me too

midas says , red or black

zorro says , neither I need to call my broker.

next day both have lost.

midas says how did you go?

zorro says , terrible dow dropped -400. Im down 100k

zorro says, how did you go

midas says , I lost the lot on black

fast forward.... 1 year

zorro sees, midas holding one dolar chips

midas says, how is your investment

zorro says, terrible Im down 200k now

fast forward 6 months...

midas says, how was your investment

zorro says, Im up 100k

midas says, &lt;deleted&gt;?????

end of story

Edited August 22, 2010 by zorro1

[Abrak]

Its an aging dichotomy.

Or you could just say it is a rather scary looking chart.

One could also say - Midas dire comments - are a good Market Indicator.

Whenever he comes up with more rehashed negative comments - expect the Market to go up another 500 points.

Do you actually mean that in the sense that relating bond yields to stock market valuation is a sort of cliche and is a discounted and irrelevant point (because I honestly dont think that Midas knows how to value a stockmarket against bond market yields.)

Because Parvis if you think about it bond yields are so pathetic you can essentially assume the stock market is overvalued. The yield itself is essentially an overwhelming negative.

[Parvis]

Its an aging dichotomy.

Or you could just say it is a rather scary looking chart.

One could also say - Midas dire comments - are a good Market Indicator.

Whenever he comes up with more rehashed negative comments - expect the Market to go up another 500 points.

Do you actually mean that in the sense that relating bond yields to stock market valuation is a sort of cliche and is a discounted and irrelevant point (because I honestly dont think that Midas knows how to value a stockmarket against bond market yields.)

Because Parvis if you think about it bond yields are so pathetic you can essentially assume the stock market is overvalued. The yield itself is essentially an overwhelming negative.

Abrak - I do not - in general - subscribe to the "theoretical Market valuations" so many advisors/analysts make reference to. But rather:

1) I try to subscribe to logic - "Markets are moved by money - period". Even Money outflows - so often emphasized "menacingly" by Midas does not go "pfff" in midair.

2) As long as purchasing exceeds sales - the Market will move higher. How long ? - I do not know - but at present Markets have been trending higher since March 2009 and the trend appears to continue to be higher - at least so far.

3) The Stock Market is a Market of Stocks - which do not necessarily go with the trend - nor against it - but are judged mostly on a fundamental basis by analysts. But - in general - for Market Indices to move higher - most individual Stocks also need to move higher - once you see a definite falling off/stalling - watch out below. At present time 38% of SPX Stocks (500) are above their 50 day moving average. Not very impressive - until you consider - at the same time - 45% of NYA Stocks (3000+) are above their individual 50 day moving average. A very impressive positive divergence - at a time when Market is just about to turn higher.

4) We are just now beginning another cycle up - perhaps we should call this cycle "The Midas touch Phenomenon".

Edited August 22, 2010 by Parvis

[Abrak]

I realize we are essentially on different planets whereby I simply believe in mo correlation between stocks and their fundamentals in the short term and a very high correlation in the long term, while you base your investments on understanding market logic or psychology to predict underlying prices. I do find your more buyers than sellers argument difficult on the basis that buyers will automatically match sellers by definition. It is an axiom. I know chartists introduce these arguments to irritate encase they do not wish to explain. The more buyers than sellers argument simply reflects the assumption that you might think I am a complete moron.

And the for the market to move higher - in general - most stocks should move higher also rather assumes I am not capable of buying an ice cream.

Edited August 22, 2010 by Abrak

[zorro1]

"And the for the market to move higher - in general - most stocks should move higher also rather assumes I am not capable of buying an ice cream".

I never post after my second bottle of wine for this reason

[Parvis]

I realize we are essentially on different planets whereby I simply believe in mo correlation between stocks and their fundamentals in the short term and a very high correlation in the long term, while you base your investments on understanding market logic or psychology to predict underlying prices. I do find your more buyers than sellers argument difficult on the basis that buyers will automatically match sellers by definition. It is an axiom. I know chartists introduce these arguments to irritate encase they do not wish to explain. The more buyers than sellers argument simply reflects the assumption that you might think I am a complete moron.

And the for the market to move higher - in general - most stocks should move higher also rather assumes I am not capable of buying an ice cream.

As you said - we appear to be living on different planets. However - you appear to talk about Market without discriminating between "Stock Market Indices" and "Market of Stocks". Any fundamental analysis on a Stock Market Indice is in my opinion MEANINGLESS. Any fundamental analysis of individual Stocks has merit - depending on the evaluator.

I do not consider myself a "chartist" - but as in many cases - often one has no interest to explain. As has been mentioned before - the ONLY WAY to begin to understand Stockmarket intricacies is to analyze/monitor it sytematically on a "7 hour a day" basis.

Let's just let the Market talk - and confirm - or deny - we are at the beginning of a substantial upmovement.

Edited August 22, 2010 by Parvis

[Abrak]

I have no problem with your prediction. I have absolutely no idea how to predict short term movements in stock prices let alone market indexes. I simply buy stocks in the knowledge that their absolute value is the net present value of future cash flows.

I do get a bit irritated by all this market logic stuff because I have to put up with from all the Thai brokers. Last week it was 'you should buy it because it is only Bt1 and if it goes up Bt1 and you buy a million shares you will make Bt1 million profit'. And then I remember the more you buy and the more it goes up the more you will make.

And brokers who ring me up to ask whether a particular stock is safe to buy really bug me. I could of course say it depends if there are more buyers than sellers but I usually tell them to call me back in a month.

I do Agree that study and experience are the key to performance though. I used to do my market 14 hours a day, 15 years ago.

[midas]

The market to me is about sentiment.

Boy.......... you said it !

The Stock Market Is For Suckers: Put Your Money In The Bank

If you haven’t noticed, individuals are avoiding the stock market in droves. There has been an enormous exodus from equity based mutual funds. Why ? Because people buy stocks for only one reason, they want them to go up in price. If you don’t believe the market is going to go up. If you don’t believe you can find a greater fool to buy your stock, or the stock your funds own, why would you buy either ? You wouldn’t and people aren’t.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/mark-cuban-the-stock-market-is-for-suckers-put-your-money-in-the-bank-2010-8#ixzz0xNj577NN

[midas]

2) As long as purchasing exceeds sales - the Market will move higher. How long ? - I do not know - but at present Markets have been trending higher since March 2009 and the trend appears to continue to be higher ?????? - at least so far.

[zorro1]

2) As long as purchasing exceeds sales - the Market will move higher. How long ? - I do not know - but at present Markets have been trending higher since March 2009 and the trend appears to continue to be higher ?????? - at least so far.

starting to shape into a V

[midas]

2) As long as purchasing exceeds sales - the Market will move higher. How long ? - I do not know - but at present Markets have been trending higher since March 2009 and the trend appears to continue to be higher ?????? - at least so far.

starting to shape into a V

i just phoned Paul and asked him what he thought and he said definately !

[BlackJack]

The market to me is about sentiment.

Boy.......... you said it !

The Stock Market Is For Suckers: Put Your Money In The Bank

If you haven’t noticed, individuals are avoiding the stock market in droves. There has been an enormous exodus from equity based mutual funds. Why ? Because people buy stocks for only one reason, they want them to go up in price. If you don’t believe the market is going to go up. If you don’t believe you can find a greater fool to buy your stock, or the stock your funds own, why would you buy either ? You wouldn’t and people aren’t.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/mark-cuban-the-stock-market-is-for-suckers-put-your-money-in-the-bank-2010-8#ixzz0xNj577NN

mutual funds

mining stocks silver and gold

money in the bank 6.5% at call

real estate rent coming in