Who Is Ready To Buy?

[thailandlover]

Is now the time to buy new property in Thailand? Would you wait, buy it now? Never buy it?

I am thinking of buying a condo, but the prices really don't seem to have come down much and I don't want to go in on the upswing.

[trogers]

Condo prices that came down much are mainly in places like Pattaya, Phuket and Hua Hin, and some less favourable locations in Bangkok (eg. Sukhumvit road nearer to Bangna).

Buyers in choice locations have holding power, thus not much price dipping.

This is the last quarter to buy, and a slow upswing will begin near end of this year.

[midas]

Condo prices that came down much are mainly in places like Pattaya, Phuket and Hua Hin, and some less favourable locations in Bangkok (eg. Sukhumvit road nearer to Bangna).

Buyers in choice locations have holding power, thus not much price dipping.

This is the last quarter to buy, and a slow upswing will begin near end of this year.

Do you ever stop sounding like a second hand car sales man trogers ?

How in the world do you know " there will be an upswing will begin near end of this year " ?

The recession is not over because the green shoots recovery is based on nothing but lies and distorted figures

Edited August 10, 2009 by midas

[jerrylee]

less favourable locations in Bangkok

I recall the famous bangkok story about Mr. Udom wanting to buy the street of Patphong,

his father told him that it was too far from chinatown, nothing's there but ricefields.

[hhgz]

"recovery is based on nothing but lies"

I'm almost afraid to ask what you are talking about. Who is lying to whom? I realize that after you lost your shirt in the Oz real estate market, your perspective about real estate investment has changed.

[DonTron]

I believe we have not seen the bottom yet. I estimate it wont hit rock bottom before 2012-2013.

But I am already buying - there are plenty of really great deals out there which yields great rental returns. I just bought one at 16.2% ROI which is the best condo investment I made in Thailand yet.

[robert10]

I believe we have not seen the bottom yet. I estimate it wont hit rock bottom before 2012-2013.

But I am already buying - there are plenty of really great deals out there which yields great rental returns. I just bought one at 16.2% ROI which is the best condo investment I made in Thailand yet.

Care to tell us more, like which condo/location and how you got such a good deal. I'm sure there's a lot of interest here

[xbusman]

I am starting to hear of a few as well. Banks are offloading some property at around the 100 times rent price. The pressure is definitely building but very slowly I think. In the past five years, this is the first that I have heard of property being liquidated at rational prices. We are actively looking now but they are still few and far between.

[David006]

I believe we have not seen the bottom yet. I estimate it wont hit rock bottom before 2012-2013.

But I am already buying - there are plenty of really great deals out there which yields great rental returns. I just bought one at 16.2% ROI which is the best condo investment I made in Thailand yet.

Interested to know where you got your 16.2% ROI figure from...historic or estimated/hoped for future rental or???

[robert10]

This is the last quarter to buy, and a slow upswing will begin near end of this year.

How in the world do you know " there will be an upswing will begin near end of this year " ?

That may well be the case if there's no significant pullback in the equity markets by Q1 next year

Edited August 11, 2009 by robert10

[midas]

Is now the time to buy new property in Thailand? Would you wait, buy it now? Never buy it?

I am thinking of buying a condo, but the prices really don't seem to have come down much and I don't want to go in on the upswing.

Before you listen to the self serving posts of the regular real estate " bulls " in this forum consider what

happened in Tokyo over the last 15 years - and now they are going back into the same situation again .

The country’s public debt had grown to exceed its gross domestic product, and deflation

stalked the land. In the end, real estate prices fell for 15 consecutive years.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/13/business...nomy/13yen.html

How do we know what on earth is going to happen regarding the world economy going forward

and how do we know the same deflation ( which also has now emerged in Europe ) doesnt

result in stagnation of property values here in Thailand. Lets look at the positive side..........

lets say real estate values in Bangkok dont " fall for 15 consecutive years " like they did in Japan- lets say they just

stay the same ? With so much uncertainty about the so called recovery in US

and how this will affect the rest of the world this scenario is far more likely than saying there will be

" an upswing beginning near end of this year "

Bottom line - there is no reason or justification to make a rushed decision

[midas]

"recovery is based on nothing but lies"

I'm almost afraid to ask what you are talking about. Who is lying to whom? I realize that after you lost your shirt in the Oz real estate market, your perspective about real estate investment has changed.

I dont intend to sell my Sydney properties so how can i loose my shirt ?

" Who is lying to whom " - well maybe delusion is a more appropriate term but I think this passage

sums up very well what your mate the Big " O " is doing

" After the last Great Depression, Keynesian economists emerged victorious in proposing that a nation must spend its way out of crisis. This time around, they will be proven wrong. The world is a very different place now. Loose credit, easy spending and massive debt is what has led the world to the current economic crisis, spending is not the way out. The world has been functioning on a debt based global economy. This debt based monetary system, controlled and operated by the global central banking system, of which the apex is the Bank for International Settlements, is unsustainable. This is the real bubble, the debt bubble. When it bursts, and it will burst, the world will enter into the Greatest Depression in world history. "

[SMEEERE]

Is now the time to buy new property in Thailand? Would you wait, buy it now? Never buy it?

I am thinking of buying a condo, but the prices really don't seem to have come down much and I don't want to go in on the upswing.

Before you listen to the self serving posts of the regular real estate " bulls " in this forum consider what

happened in Tokyo over the last 15 years - and now they are going back into the same situation again .

The country's public debt had grown to exceed its gross domestic product, and deflation

stalked the land. In the end, real estate prices fell for 15 consecutive years.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/13/business...nomy/13yen.html

How do we know what on earth is going to happen regarding the world economy going forward

and how do we know the same deflation ( which also has now emerged in Europe ) doesnt

result in stagnation of property values here in Thailand. Lets look at the positive side..........

lets say real estate values in Bangkok dont " fall for 15 consecutive years " like they did in Japan- lets say they just

stay the same ? With so much uncertainty about the so called recovery in US

and how this will affect the rest of the world this scenario is far more likely than saying there will be

" an upswing beginning near end of this year "

Bottom line - there is no reason or justification to make a rushed decision

Absolutly correct, "How do we know what on earth is going to happen regarding the world economy going forward ".. if you find the person that can answer this please can you ask him to forward me next weeks uk lottery winning numbers, i sure could use them, thanks ,. Edited August 11, 2009 by SMEEERE

[craigt3365]

If you don't plan to sell in the near future, it is a great time to buy. If you are speculating, then who knows....nobody...

My Mother owns property in Las Vegas that has gone way down...but she does not care as she has no plan to sell at all! In other words, she has lost nothing...at least until you sell!

[katabeachbum]

Condo prices that came down much are mainly in places like Pattaya, Phuket and Hua Hin, and some less favourable locations in Bangkok (eg. Sukhumvit road nearer to Bangna).

Buyers in choice locations have holding power, thus not much price dipping.

This is the last quarter to buy, and a slow upswing will begin near end of this year.

Second that.

Still few buyers around, but construction has slowed down much, so less for sale.

Inexpensive projects OnNut to Bangna basicly sold out before completion at early 2008 prices.

Not sure the upswing will be slow, pending on government stimulus and interest/mortgage availability

For the thai market we have to consider only 23% of property value is financed, compared to 80-100% for most "developed" countries.

[trogers]

Inexpensive projects OnNut to Bangna basicly sold out before completion at early 2008 prices.

I think you meant fully booked. Condo units are not yet sold until title is transferred upon full payment.

[trogers]

If you don't plan to sell in the near future, it is a great time to buy. If you are speculating, then who knows....nobody...

My Mother owns property in Las Vegas that has gone way down...but she does not care as she has no plan to sell at all! In other words, she has lost nothing...at least until you sell!

How I wish the reverse argument was clearly understood and acted upon in the US 4-5 years ago - You have not got richer in a market of rising prices, until you sell. Then people would not have re-mortgaged their homes.

[kaxper]

if you look at the bigger developers, there does not seem to be any crisis - either of confidence or pricing. asian properties ("life" condos) continue to see their finished condo units being transferred (i.e. buyers either got a mortgage or paid in cash), while likes of LPN and Supalai are also seeing healthy transfers. they just reported their 2q09 results, and, short of cooking their books, things are actually moving along nicely with 2h09 confidence rising (ie new project launch pipeline is increased). banks seems to be happy to lend mortgage to a real local buyer.

where there do seem to be a crisis of confidence (and probably you can get great deals) are smaller developers (clover on thonglo, charisma ekkamai) who are either being sued, or have completed projects that are way off spec. there are many many one off developers - just go around the ratchada area or further down in sukhumvit (after on-nut), all touting near BTS or MRTA that are seeing delays or units completed unsatisfactory.

within the high-end segment i think are also good deals ... projects pitched to foreigners (met, emporio, empire, aguston, wilshire, jambudiva, etc) who may not have as deep pockets as they did three years ago. transfer is imminent and i am sure they will be happy to walk away at cost (prices very sticky to original cost).

whether the bkk condo market turns around end this year or not i guess no one knows. but the fact that the capital markets (stocks, bonds) have risen as much as 40-100% from the bottom (hong kong is near 90% up from bottom) means that everyone is feeling less poorer than in oct08 or mar09. this means increased confidence and more holding power and probably less likely for a seller to panic and dump. buying now is probably not a bad idea.

[craigt3365]

I have been cruising around here in Phuket lately. There are some projects that are being built, but I am surprised at how many are just sitting. No work being done. Even saw one yesterday that says under new management and doing a relaunch. Obviously, something went wrong...

Anyone know about that HUGE one at the northern end of Bang Tao beach that is just sitting? It looks like it was going to be giant.

[midas]

I have been cruising around here in Phuket lately. There are some projects that are being built, but I am surprised at how many are just sitting. No work being done. Even saw one yesterday that says under new management and doing a relaunch. Obviously, something went wrong...

Anyone know about that HUGE one at the northern end of Bang Tao beach that is just sitting? It looks like it was going to be giant.

I chuckle at earlier posters who say that just because " capital markets (stocks, bonds) have risen "

it justifies coming up with the statement " buying now is probably not a bad idea. "

Bangkok property market has "stagnated"

Investment in Bangkok's property market remains low, despite an increase in the number of properties available in the Thailand capital, a new study has concluded.

Research by real estate services firm Jones Lang LaSalle revealed that there is still disparity between the price expectations of buyers and sellers.

Managing director of the firm's Thailand branch Suphin Mechuchep stated that while interest in the market is still strong, actual investment activity in recent months has "stagnated".

"Investors are mostly looking for distressed assets offered at deeply discounted prices. At the same time, sellers refuse to dispose of their property assets at a loss," he explained.

And Jones Lang LaSalle's director of investments Umpon Thepnumsommanus noted that while the firm has received a number of enquiries regarding real estate, the vast majority are buyers looking for distressed assets.

Edited August 12, 2009 by midas

[kaxper]

I chuckle at earlier posters who say that just because " capital markets (stocks, bonds) have risen "

it justifies coming up with the statement " buying now is probably not a bad idea. "

Bangkok property market has "stagnated"

Investment in Bangkok's property market remains low, despite an increase in the number of properties available in the Thailand capital, a new study has concluded. Research by real estate services firm Jones Lang LaSalle revealed that there is still disparity between the price expectations of buyers and sellers. Managing director of the firm's Thailand branch Suphin Mechuchep stated that while interest in the market is still strong, actual investment activity in recent months has "stagnated". "Investors are mostly looking for distressed assets offered at deeply discounted prices. At the same time, sellers refuse to dispose of their property assets at a loss," he explained. And Jones Lang LaSalle's director of investments Umpon Thepnumsommanus noted that while the firm has received a number of enquiries regarding real estate, the vast majority are buyers looking for distressed assets.

my point exactly .. investment activity has stagnated means developers stopped launching new projects and means that there is less supply coming on line which is healthy as existing inventory needs to clear. the speculator who bought condos off plan are now feeling bit more confident now that his portfolio has risen (i am one of them!), which means that he has more options and less likely to dump his 30% deposit. if you are a buyer and still waiting for prices to crash, that likelihood is less likely. but who knows, we can have another airport closure and everything can still go to the dogs.

[pkrv]

I chuckle at earlier posters who say that just because " capital markets (stocks, bonds) have risen "

it justifies coming up with the statement " buying now is probably not a bad idea. "

Bangkok property market has "stagnated"

Investment in Bangkok's property market remains low, despite an increase in the number of properties available in the Thailand capital, a new study has concluded. Research by real estate services firm Jones Lang LaSalle revealed that there is still disparity between the price expectations of buyers and sellers. Managing director of the firm's Thailand branch Suphin Mechuchep stated that while interest in the market is still strong, actual investment activity in recent months has "stagnated". "Investors are mostly looking for distressed assets offered at deeply discounted prices. At the same time, sellers refuse to dispose of their property assets at a loss," he explained. And Jones Lang LaSalle's director of investments Umpon Thepnumsommanus noted that while the firm has received a number of enquiries regarding real estate, the vast majority are buyers looking for distressed assets.

my point exactly .. investment activity has stagnated means developers stopped launching new projects and means that there is less supply coming on line which is healthy as existing inventory needs to clear. the speculator who bought condos off plan are now feeling bit more confident now that his portfolio has risen (i am one of them!), which means that he has more options and less likely to dump his 30% deposit. if you are a buyer and still waiting for prices to crash, that likelihood is less likely. but who knows, we can have another airport closure and everything can still go to the dogs.

Ohhh you mean the law of supply and demand...

[midas]

my point exactly .. investment activity has stagnated means developers stopped launching new projects and means that there is less supply coming on line which is healthy as existing inventory needs to clear. the speculator who bought condos off plan are now feeling bit more confident now that his portfolio has risen (i am one of them!), which means that he has more options and less likely to dump his 30% deposit. if you are a buyer and still waiting for prices to crash, that likelihood is less likely. but who knows, we can have another airport closure and everything can still go to the dogs.

I dont expect things to " crash ".............but then I dont expect a general trend of price increases either............

The point is until the recession is truly over ( i.e. there are no longer any

deflationary forces evident around the world as there are now ) any potential

buyer can wait and see without " missing out "

[robert10]

my point exactly .. investment activity has stagnated means developers stopped launching new projects and means that there is less supply coming on line which is healthy as existing inventory needs to clear. the speculator who bought condos off plan are now feeling bit more confident now that his portfolio has risen (i am one of them!), which means that he has more options and less likely to dump his 30% deposit. if you are a buyer and still waiting for prices to crash, that likelihood is less likely. but who knows, we can have another airport closure and everything can still go to the dogs.

I dont expect things to " crash ".............but then I dont expect a general trend of price increases either............

The point is until the recession is truly over ( i.e. there are no longer any

deflationary forces evident around the world as there are now ) any potential

buyer can wait and see without " missing out "

Those who waited in Singapore seems to be losing out as condo prices has climbed quite rapidly since March, so much so that the government has expressed some concern .... recession not withstanding

There's a lot of easy money floating around in the world today literally looking for a home... thanks to all the central bankers cranking the printing machines full throttle

We will all see in perhaps 1-3 years' time how all this is going to turn out

[midas]

my point exactly .. investment activity has stagnated means developers stopped launching new projects and means that there is less supply coming on line which is healthy as existing inventory needs to clear. the speculator who bought condos off plan are now feeling bit more confident now that his portfolio has risen (i am one of them!), which means that he has more options and less likely to dump his 30% deposit. if you are a buyer and still waiting for prices to crash, that likelihood is less likely. but who knows, we can have another airport closure and everything can still go to the dogs.

I dont expect things to " crash ".............but then I dont expect a general trend of price increases either............

The point is until the recession is truly over ( i.e. there are no longer any

deflationary forces evident around the world as there are now ) any potential

buyer can wait and see without " missing out "

Those who waited in Singapore seems to be losing out as condo prices has climbed quite rapidly since March, so much so that the government has expressed some concern .... recession not withstanding

There's a lot of easy money floating around in the world today literally looking for a home... thanks to all the central bankers cranking the printing machines full throttle

We will all see in perhaps 1-3 years' time how all this is going to turn out

You are trying to compare the market dynamics of a tiny little island state where there is a physical shortage of land to Bangkok?

[pkrv]

my point exactly .. investment activity has stagnated means developers stopped launching new projects and means that there is less supply coming on line which is healthy as existing inventory needs to clear. the speculator who bought condos off plan are now feeling bit more confident now that his portfolio has risen (i am one of them!), which means that he has more options and less likely to dump his 30% deposit. if you are a buyer and still waiting for prices to crash, that likelihood is less likely. but who knows, we can have another airport closure and everything can still go to the dogs.

I dont expect things to " crash ".............but then I dont expect a general trend of price increases either............

The point is until the recession is truly over ( i.e. there are no longer any

deflationary forces evident around the world as there are now ) any potential

buyer can wait and see without " missing out "

Those who waited in Singapore seems to be losing out as condo prices has climbed quite rapidly since March, so much so that the government has expressed some concern .... recession not withstanding

There's a lot of easy money floating around in the world today literally looking for a home... thanks to all the central bankers cranking the printing machines full throttle

We will all see in perhaps 1-3 years' time how all this is going to turn out

You are trying to compare the market dynamics of a tiny little island state where there is a physical shortage of land to Bangkok?

Out of interest - Does not Thailand from a farang perspective consist of 'tiny islands' or pockets?

[dmax]

Condo prices that came down much are mainly in places like Pattaya, Phuket and Hua Hin, and some less favourable locations in Bangkok (eg. Sukhumvit road nearer to Bangna).

Buyers in choice locations have holding power, thus not much price dipping.

This is the last quarter to buy, and a slow upswing will begin near end of this year.

Do you ever stop sounding like a second hand car sales man trogers ?

How in the world do you know " there will be an upswing will begin near end of this year " ?

The recession is not over because the green shoots recovery is based on nothing but lies and distorted figures

agreed !!!!!!!!!

[donx]

my point exactly .. investment activity has stagnated means developers stopped launching new projects and means that there is less supply coming on line which is healthy as existing inventory needs to clear. the speculator who bought condos off plan are now feeling bit more confident now that his portfolio has risen (i am one of them!), which means that he has more options and less likely to dump his 30% deposit. if you are a buyer and still waiting for prices to crash, that likelihood is less likely. but who knows, we can have another airport closure and everything can still go to the dogs.

I dont expect things to " crash ".............but then I dont expect a general trend of price increases either............

The point is until the recession is truly over ( i.e. there are no longer any

deflationary forces evident around the world as there are now ) any potential

buyer can wait and see without " missing out "

If you don't expect prices to go down any more than they have already, then this is a good time to buy. Waiting will only make it more likely that you will miss out, because by the time you realize prices are trending upward, you have already missed out. Of course there are other reasons why one may want/need to wait things out, for example not having funds available.

On the other hand, if you expect prices to go down more than they have already, then this is not a good time to buy.

So the question I have for you is do you expect prices to go down or to remain unchanged?

[stgrhe]

My wife and I bought in Hua Hin three months ago.

[robert10]

my point exactly .. investment activity has stagnated means developers stopped launching new projects and means that there is less supply coming on line which is healthy as existing inventory needs to clear. the speculator who bought condos off plan are now feeling bit more confident now that his portfolio has risen (i am one of them!), which means that he has more options and less likely to dump his 30% deposit. if you are a buyer and still waiting for prices to crash, that likelihood is less likely. but who knows, we can have another airport closure and everything can still go to the dogs.

I dont expect things to " crash ".............but then I dont expect a general trend of price increases either............

The point is until the recession is truly over ( i.e. there are no longer any

deflationary forces evident around the world as there are now ) any potential

buyer can wait and see without " missing out "

Those who waited in Singapore seems to be losing out as condo prices has climbed quite rapidly since March, so much so that the government has expressed some concern .... recession not withstanding

There's a lot of easy money floating around in the world today literally looking for a home... thanks to all the central bankers cranking the printing machines full throttle

We will all see in perhaps 1-3 years' time how all this is going to turn out

You are trying to compare the market dynamics of a tiny little island state where there is a physical shortage of land to Bangkok?

Loose monetary policies tend to reflate asset prices, and when its the Fed, it blows asset bubbles round the world. We see that easy money flowing into the equity markets right now. Under Greenspan's loose polices, property prices began climbing in major Asian cities like HK and Singapore starting in late 2004/2005. Later, that easy money flowed to second tier asian cities like Bangkok and K.L. I remember property players touting BKK properties as laggard and undervalued compared to Singapore and HK then. Of course, as history showed, BKK prices played catch up very quickly The same thing may happen now, with SG and HK leading the way.

But am I betting on that? On the one hand, we've seen unprecedented global wealth destruction with the financial crisis. On the other hand, we've unprecedented public policy responses, with lots of money (ie tax-payer $$$ ) thrown at the problem. How will all this end? Like I said, things should be clearer in 1-3 years time Right now, my baht stays with me. That view may change if there's no significant pullback in equity markets by early next year