Who Is Ready To Buy?

[craigt3365]

Robert10: The discounts I have been told are in the 10-20% range. For both off plan and completed. I am sure that you can do much better than that if you really negotiate...which I have not done at this point...just looking around right now.

Snglife: That is what I had previously said....on post #54. And had previously posted that I also think the prices are not reflective of their true value...but then again, how do you determine "true value?" Not easy to do here, that is for sure! My mother lives in Las Vegas...prices are way down there and you can get some really good properties at a good price. Quality builds, etc....but who wants to live there????? IMHO, not a good quality of life.

[midas]

I have been cruising around here in Phuket lately. There are some projects that are being built, but I am surprised at how many are just sitting. No work being done. Even saw one yesterday that says under new management and doing a relaunch. Obviously, something went wrong...

Anyone know about that HUGE one at the northern end of Bang Tao beach that is just sitting? It looks like it was going to be giant.

craigt3365 may help explain your comments .........................

Real estate in Phuket : the market in disarray… wants to believe

Published 19 June 2009 Economy , Real Estate 13 Comments

This article is not really interesting, even quite boring. Because it's repetitive, it tells us something we already know, since a long time (game over for the real estate market, vanished the famous "foreign buyers", vaporized the financings, in the toilets the so called "luxury" market in dumps like Pattaya, Phuket, blablabla.).

No… instead what I found fascinating is the pure and perfect human psyche at work.

First, the depressing reality, difficult to handle on a day to day basis :

More than 10 residential projects with a combined market value of nearly Bt10 billion remain "on hold" in Phuket, because demand from both domestic and foreign buyers – especially for luxury homes – has fallen to less than half of last year's level. [...]

"Some Thai investors are interested in buying our residential projects, but the banks reject their loan applications. This is the main problem for local investors," he said. (Nation)

http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/category/e...estate-economy/

My friend Midas, master of the cut n paste The banks reject and have done so correctly so as to avoid another sub prime crisis. You want to buy? then you got have a good down payment and A1 rating for now. I agree Midas this may cause a stagnation in property demand for the short term however 1-2years out landlords will be smiling. Just curious and you don't have to answer, but do you rent, or own? condo or house and what area? , I'm assuming you live here right?

I am reading many alernative news and opinions ( other than MSM ) daily and you would be surprised

how many Americans who post comments after the article are still expecting a total meltdown in USA

If USA suffers - we all suffer. Thats all

Yes I live in Thailand.

[trogers]

More than 10 residential projects with a combined market value of nearly Bt10 billion remain "on hold" in Phuket, because demand from both domestic and foreign buyers – especially for luxury homes – has fallen to less than half of last year's level. [...]

How many of these 'more than 10 projects' carried the involvement of the Lehman Bros?

[zorro1]

Robert10: The discounts I have been told are in the 10-20% range. For both off plan and completed. I am sure that you can do much better than that if you really negotiate...which I have not done at this point...just looking around right now.

Snglife: That is what I had previously said....on post #54. And had previously posted that I also think the prices are not reflective of their true value...but then again, how do you determine "true value?" Not easy to do here, that is for sure! My mother lives in Las Vegas...prices are way down there and you can get some really good properties at a good price. Quality builds, etc....but who wants to live there????? IMHO, not a good quality of life.

Can you list the projects that are giving 20% off in Phuket. i would be most interested. Could you provide the project name and a phone number. Many thanks in advance

[robert10]

I have been cruising around here in Phuket lately. There are some projects that are being built, but I am surprised at how many are just sitting. No work being done. Even saw one yesterday that says under new management and doing a relaunch. Obviously, something went wrong...

Anyone know about that HUGE one at the northern end of Bang Tao beach that is just sitting? It looks like it was going to be giant.

craigt3365 may help explain your comments .........................

Real estate in Phuket : the market in disarray… wants to believe

Published 19 June 2009 Economy , Real Estate 13 Comments

This article is not really interesting, even quite boring. Because it's repetitive, it tells us something we already know, since a long time (game over for the real estate market, vanished the famous "foreign buyers", vaporized the financings, in the toilets the so called "luxury" market in dumps like Pattaya, Phuket, blablabla.).

No… instead what I found fascinating is the pure and perfect human psyche at work.

First, the depressing reality, difficult to handle on a day to day basis :

More than 10 residential projects with a combined market value of nearly Bt10 billion remain "on hold" in Phuket, because demand from both domestic and foreign buyers – especially for luxury homes – has fallen to less than half of last year's level. [...]

"Some Thai investors are interested in buying our residential projects, but the banks reject their loan applications. This is the main problem for local investors," he said. (Nation)

http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/category/e...estate-economy/

My friend Midas, master of the cut n paste The banks reject and have done so correctly so as to avoid another sub prime crisis. You want to buy? then you got have a good down payment and A1 rating for now. I agree Midas this may cause a stagnation in property demand for the short term however 1-2years out landlords will be smiling. Just curious and you don't have to answer, but do you rent, or own? condo or house and what area? , I'm assuming you live here right?

I am reading many alernative news and opinions ( other than MSM ) daily and you would be surprised

how many Americans who post comments after the article are still expecting a total meltdown in USA

If USA suffers - we all suffer. Thats all

Yes I live in Thailand.

Agreed... US housing recovery/stabilisation is crucial to the rest of the world. Some of these alternative views are saying that 2007/2008 was about subprime meltdown, and 2009/2010/2011 will be about prime/alt-A/commercial mortgages etc The US govt & Fed hasn't really solved the fundamental causes of the crisis and are just kicking the can-of-worms down the road with their mortgage mods, foreclosure moratoria, bailouts, money printing etc And they recently created the US treasury bubble too

[zorro1]

Hope someone can provide a new development with a good discount. My next target is Phuket

Edited August 16, 2009 by zorro1

[craigt3365]

Honestly, almost everything I am looking at is discounting. That may not be listed on their website, but it will be offered if you go in person...or deal with an agent. That is how I have found out about most of these...unfortunately, takes a lot of time. There were a few that are almost completely sold out that are not discounting...but I have only seen a few of those.

I was in Pattaya a few weeks ago and it seems worse there...or should I say better for buyers? Just cruise the listing here on the thaivisa.com classified section. Lots of discounts being offered.

[zorro1]

Honestly, almost everything I am looking at is discounting. That may not be listed on their website, but it will be offered if you go in person...or deal with an agent. That is how I have found out about most of these...unfortunately, takes a lot of time. There were a few that are almost completely sold out that are not discounting...but I have only seen a few of those.

I was in Pattaya a few weeks ago and it seems worse there...or should I say better for buyers? Just cruise the listing here on the thaivisa.com classified section. Lots of discounts being offered.

Oh well, I give up on asking for just one single new development that is being offered at the discounts suggested. A lot get caught up in innocent hearsay eg, a mate just told me 30% off in Samui or just heard nearly 20% off new developments in BKK. These arnt facts people hence no one can provide a project. I would be more than happy to call them and enquire myself but these mystery developments always remain a mystery

[HDRIDER]

Hope someone can provide a new development with a good discount. My next target is Phuket

Hi

Why dont you go out there yourself and look around, i got my house for 4 mill less of what they wanted for it.

[zorro1]

Hd rider, Im looking for condos only in new developments. The whole idea of a community forum is to share info. I already own2 condos in BKK and am starting to lean towards phuket. If some here sates they have seen new developments at 20% then its pretty poor form not to share. My hunch is they dont exist. I just asked a question which is the whole point of being a member Of TV. I hope every one of your posts dont get the same response as you gave me " get out and have a look around"

[-noodles-]

I just re-read the OP's question which is "Who is ready to buy", and wanted to edit my post, but couldn't. But to answer the OP's question, I'm ready to buy when the right opportunity comes along, and I'm also ready to sell any of the units I'm holding, at a decent price.

And for those posting, remember the original question, Who is ready to buy? Your post should conclude with the response to this question.

I'm ready to buy but there's still silly asking prices for most decent places in the Pattaya area.

Try older condos in good locations, and include an amount for renovation.

Can you recommend any complexes in particular?

My first guess would be Centre Condos on Pattaya Tai... great location but looks very run down these days.

[craigt3365]

Geez, guys...you are a tough bunch. OK, here is one with a 10% discount...Laguna Properties. Everything they have is 10% off...and my friend (who works there) said to offer 10% off that and they would probably take it...as nothing is selling. I am headed out today to look at 6-7 developments. A I mentioned before, I am just poking around. I am NOT ready to buy, so I am not writing down phone numbers and collecting a bunch of brochures or bookmarking developments.

Sorry if that is not good enough for you guys. Most places, including Laguna Properties, do NOT post the discounts on the internet. You only get it when you show up in person. You have already had 2 members tell you what is going on...deep discounts. And like previously mentioned, deeper on existing properties. I have seen a bunch listed here on Thaivisa's classified section.

Sorry that is not good enough info for you. I am outta here...

Edited August 17, 2009 by craigt3365

[trogers]

I just re-read the OP's question which is "Who is ready to buy", and wanted to edit my post, but couldn't. But to answer the OP's question, I'm ready to buy when the right opportunity comes along, and I'm also ready to sell any of the units I'm holding, at a decent price.

And for those posting, remember the original question, Who is ready to buy? Your post should conclude with the response to this question.

I'm ready to buy but there's still silly asking prices for most decent places in the Pattaya area.

Try older condos in good locations, and include an amount for renovation.

Can you recommend any complexes in particular?

My first guess would be Centre Condos on Pattaya Tai... great location but looks very run down these days.

Try up the hill and avoid any between the 2nd and 3rd beach roads. The latter location has dubious neighbourhood.

[zorro1]

Geez, guys...you are a tough bunch. OK, here is one with a 10% discount...Laguna Properties. Everything they have is 10% off...and my friend (who works there) said to offer 10% off that and they would probably take it...as nothing is selling. I am headed out today to look at 6-7 developments. A I mentioned before, I am just poking around. I am NOT ready to buy, so I am not writing down phone numbers and collecting a bunch of brochures or bookmarking developments.

Sorry if that is not good enough for you guys. Most places, including Laguna Properties, do NOT post the discounts on the internet. You only get it when you show up in person. You have already had 2 members tell you what is going on...deep discounts. And like previously mentioned, deeper on existing properties. I have seen a bunch listed here on Thaivisa's classified section.

Sorry that is not good enough info for you. I am outta here...

Thanks Craig

[Livinginexile]

Geez, guys...you are a tough bunch. OK, here is one with a 10% discount...Laguna Properties. Everything they have is 10% off...and my friend (who works there) said to offer 10% off that and they would probably take it...as nothing is selling. I am headed out today to look at 6-7 developments. A I mentioned before, I am just poking around. I am NOT ready to buy, so I am not writing down phone numbers and collecting a bunch of brochures or bookmarking developments.

Sorry if that is not good enough for you guys. Most places, including Laguna Properties, do NOT post the discounts on the internet. You only get it when you show up in person. You have already had 2 members tell you what is going on...deep discounts. And like previously mentioned, deeper on existing properties. I have seen a bunch listed here on Thaivisa's classified section.

Sorry that is not good enough info for you. I am outta here...

Previously you posted developers were giving large discounts!

Now you are saying only 10% discounts. (By the way one could allways get a 10% discount from a developer, thats normal practice here, this is Asia remember).

So please tell were these big discounts are

Edited August 17, 2009 by Livinginexile

[zorro1]

"I am just poking around. I am NOT ready to buy, so I am not writing down phone numbers and collecting a bunch of brochures or bookmarking developments."

What an odd thing to do craig. wouldn't you want a record of what you saw? Why look if your not in the market? you sound like Real Estate salesman's night mare LOL

So far your the only person who has managed to find just 1 development at a whopping 10% hmmmm. Sounds like the deals arnt in Phuket and there definatly not in BKK

I here there giving them away in Pattaya though

[craigt3365]

OK, First, I am still researching where I want to live in Thailand. I have seen houses in Chiang Mai, Bangkok, Hua Hin, Samui and a little in Pattaya. This is my first "research" trip to Phuket. Who in their right mind would buy on their first trip? Nobody. Research is needed.

I just saw 6 developments. 4 are offering discounts from 10% to 25% plus. The last is at Bantao Tropical Residence. And as I left, it was whispered in my ear they are ready to deal. The 2 that did not offer discounts, I did not ask. But I guarantee, you could get something. Just need to be serious and make an offer. They won't give it to you over the phone. And that is a big difference from 3 years ago when NO discounts were offered...just higher prices if you did not act quick...as you guys can remember....

According to my agent, who was awesome, is that 10% is about the norm for new stuff here. Older places are discounting more. But they don't have website or brochures. Just individual sellers. Their company has an office in Pattaya and she says much larger discounts are available there, as you indicate, Zorro1.

Luckily, I remember what I have seen. Don't have memory problems. So no need to carry brochures around. I have not seen anything I would buy yet anyway...heading to Rawai in 1 hour to look at some more...

[HDRIDER]

Hd rider, Im looking for condos only in new developments. The whole idea of a community forum is to share info. I already own2 condos in BKK and am starting to lean towards phuket. If some here sates they have seen new developments at 20% then its pretty poor form not to share. My hunch is they dont exist. I just asked a question which is the whole point of being a member Of TV. I hope every one of your posts dont get the same response as you gave me " get out and have a look around"

Hi

My God did this spoil your day, maybe i should say please try to shop around, i did not, but i did try to help, i don’t care how many condos you have, and i still say go out and have a look around or you want,,,, well i better not continue

[zorro1]

No didn't spoil my day but wanted some info from Craig but you side-tacked by suggesting I go have a look myself. No problems . cheers

[wordchild]

i dont think its time to buy and still too early to ask the question,residential property around the world got very very overvalued over the last few years, not unlike stockmarkets in 1999.real estate busts take much longer to work through than shares,property is much less liquid it can take months or years to sell therefore the price adjustments take longer. at the moment in many markets (apart from maybe parts of the US) we are still in the phoney war of unrealistic sellers and wary buyers so transactions dry up,this phase will end and transactions will pick up but it could still take years before its worth buying again as an investment as opposed to buying for your own personal houseing needs which is always a different consideration. ---- There is an argument about the thai market being different because of the high equity level of most transactions,so things didnt get overheated to the same extent, against that i would make a number of points.1) while the market maybe local the buyers (at the high end) are global and much of the equity that has come into the Thai market has come from property gains made elsewhere. the Thai market cannot be immune from busts in other markets.2)there has clearly been overbuild of middle to high end condo units, the proof of this is falling rents, one experienced agent i spoke to recently told me he thought rents at the upper end in bangkok had fallen 20% year on year and he was not bullish about the outlook given the number of units still to come onto the market.3)the Thai market is different in that there is not a level playing field between local and foreign buyers. there are signs of growing nationalism around the issue of foreign ownership and its not just about rice fields,lots of things are getting looked at eg the use of Thai proxies,offshore structures etc etc .You really have to ask how safe it is to own property in a country which fundamentaly does not want you too.4)the area where foreign owners have more protection ie the condo market looks like it could take the longest to recover,there is the issue of overbuild but also the Thai condo market has a poor and growing reputation for the long term maintanance quality , just go have a look at a few 10 year old condos around Bangkok .As they say before you marry you wife take a good look at her mother!-----. In many markets around the world where buyers are returning people seem to be showing a clear preference for single houses on a piece of land they own. it could be that peoples perception of the value of a condo ,which after all is a box in the air, is fundamentaly changed by this downturn

Edited August 18, 2009 by wordchild

[trogers]

There is an argument about the thai market being different because of the high equity level of most transactions,so things didnt get overheated to the same extent, against that i would make a number of points.1) while the market maybe local the buyers (at the high end) are global and much of the equity that has come into the Thai market has come from property gains made elsewhere. the Thai market cannot be immune from busts in other markets.2)there has clearly been overbuild of middle to high end condo units, the proof of this is falling rents, one experienced agent i spoke to recently told me he thought rents at the upper end in bangkok had fallen 20% year on year and he was not bullish about the outlook given the number of units still to come onto the market.3)the Thai market is different in that there is not a level playing field between local and foreign buyers.

We should differentiate between off plan condo units (those not built yet) and those that have already been transferred for a few years.

There is and will be lots of speculative froth in prices of off plan units, due to flippers. When trouble hits, their down payments are forfeited by the developer, who may then sell units not transferred with discounts - as seen now in some developments in Phuket.

Distress sales applies only to units that have already been transferred and the owners either cannot keep up with mortgages, or have some dire need for liquid fund.

[FD333]

Kaxper and Trogers both make relevent points here....

Re the Bangkok market (I just posted something identical on another thread before finding this one) Kaxpar noted that some high end condos up for transfer such as The Met, had a number of punters pull out before transfer and buyers got much better deals than a year and a half ago. I concur. However the 'window' is the transfer deadline so these are somewhat limited opportunites.

You have to deal with the fact that Bangkok is an illogical market on many levels, not least of which is Thais investing funds and sitting on empty apartments, as Kaxper also correctly stated. Add also, a HK component, a Chinese component etc. Quite recently I saw several units at All Seasons that have either never been used or used sparingly by East Asian buyers who did not even care if they received rental. I said in another thread, you can be frustrated at the lack of a deep correction in the BKK market (I am) call it absurd but in the end it does not make a difference...it has not dropped with any significance. Midas, you are actually kind of underlining the whole thing by quoting the JLL survey...the market has stagnated. But stagnation in a world of property markets which collapsed dreadfully surely indicates there is resilience. I think most of the posters here are not attempting to talk up the market but giving honest opinions.

Personally, I have been targeting to buy another property in BKK, have not found a deal and have realised I need to reset my expectations (set unrealistically low in terms of a deal) In the interim, a favoured building of mine (approx ten years old great location and facilities) has seen prices rising since the start of the year by about 15% because a number of people knew it represented great value compared to new developments - and there has been a turnover in units. This is a very specific example (like Kaxper had cited) so I am not claiming this is across the board. Frankly, I do not know if there will be a double-dip recession and whether that might affect the Bangkok market but for a quality building in key location, I feel with all the info that we have at hand (at best an informed guess) prices will hold their own and possibly start to increase through 2010.

Phuket.

I am very familiar with the Phuket market also, but it is another quite deceptive market place. For sure buyers have dried up compared to previous years but it is another market unto itself. Yes, some 5 star plus projects are on hold (such as the aforementioned Shangri-La villas etc) then there are some developers with problems such as Lersuang (less said about them the better) There are also a host of small developers that I am sure you can get a discount such as the aforementioned Bang Tao Tropical Developemnt (that I think was a sister development to Bang Tao Beach Gardens) There are numerous developments low, middle and high end all around the island at this point.

Take Andara in Kamala (developer Allan Zeeman, a HK developer/billionaire) a phase of 26 villas were all built and sold and now 30+ luxury apartments are about 80% finshed. The prices started at 27 million through to about 78 million for the apartments. I am not sure how many have sold but it doesn't matter. The developer has deep pockets and they will rent the units through high season to make a turnover. Yes, I am sure you can get a discount but from what original price? They are still shockingly expensive.

But therein lies the rub. In Phuket, you have the most expensive properties in Thailand ....by the hundred. But, those owners are very well heeled and these are second and third homes - the owners are not too driven to sell. Well heeled buyers have been looking and are not finding (yet again) the bargains they might expect at the high end. But, for the forseeable future, Phuket will remain the luxury powerhouse in SE Asia. No-one can compete. When the economy does improve, Phuket will therefore be one of the first areas to feel the upswing. There are still tens of thousands of very rich people out there and most will have substantial amounts of cash waiting in the wings for a worthwhile investment. It can be compared to Hawaii in the sense that of all the property markets in the US, the Hawaiian market has stayed relatively strong. However, the multi-million dollar villas at the highest end are still asking multi-million dollar prices. Singapore has already seen a dramatic increase in property prices and London just had some record level sales. Maybe this is all folly...but its happening.

If looking for a modest property in Phuket , yes, with a lot of leg work and a driven owner you could find a very good deal I am sure.

If I had to recommend (pricier end) I might suggest looking into Kamalaburi (apartments and townhouses in Kamala in a great location), and the Raimon Land project in Kata (now completed but with a few units left), Kata Heights. But I would hit the ground and do a lot of homework first to decide which area I liked first as Phuket is a big, big island. You also want to consider that Phuket is highly seasonal and if you are looking at rentals they will be over a condensed period (about 5 months tops) and a completely different ROI model than BKK. That said (as has been noted) you have to invest in a key location. A lot of idiots bought million dollar villas (lovely developments) in grade C locales and the promised rental income never materialised. To receive rentals you need grade A locations preferably with sea views...and this means it is harder to find modestly priced properties

Google away first....

http://www.phuketland.com

http://www.aquapropertygroup.com

http://www.phillips-property.com

http://www.indigore.com

[tyroon]

Just want to have a general idea of buying a two bedroom apartment/condo in Bangkok. Let's say with a modest kitchen and a living room. Preferrably not very far from BTS/MRT stations inside Bangkok. What shold be the minimum price range I should be looking into and what are the ideal locations if I have in mind about renting if I can't be there permanently.

[midas]

You have to deal with the fact that Bangkok is an illogical market on many levels, not least of which is Thais investing funds and sitting on empty apartments, as Kaxper also correctly stated. Add also, a HK component, a Chinese component etc. Quite recently I saw several units at All Seasons that have either never been used or used sparingly by East Asian buyers who did not even care if they received rental. I said in another thread, you can be frustrated at the lack of a deep correction in the BKK market (I am) call it absurd but in the end it does not make a difference...it has not dropped with any significance. Midas, you are actually kind of underlining the whole thing by quoting the JLL survey...the market has stagnated. But stagnation in a world of property markets which collapsed dreadfully surely indicates there is resilience. I think most of the posters here are not attempting to talk up the market but giving honest opinions.

I have a friend who had a senior role in the property business in Thailand- he was in Bangkok

for 16 years before returning to the U.K. I will always remember something he said

-“ Thai’s don’t understand the time value of money “ .

[zorro1]

You have to deal with the fact that Bangkok is an illogical market on many levels, not least of which is Thais investing funds and sitting on empty apartments, as Kaxper also correctly stated. Add also, a HK component, a Chinese component etc. Quite recently I saw several units at All Seasons that have either never been used or used sparingly by East Asian buyers who did not even care if they received rental. I said in another thread, you can be frustrated at the lack of a deep correction in the BKK market (I am) call it absurd but in the end it does not make a difference...it has not dropped with any significance. Midas, you are actually kind of underlining the whole thing by quoting the JLL survey...the market has stagnated. But stagnation in a world of property markets which collapsed dreadfully surely indicates there is resilience. I think most of the posters here are not attempting to talk up the market but giving honest opinions.

I have a friend who had a senior role in the property business in Thailand- he was in Bangkok

for 16 years before returning to the U.K. I will always remember something he said

-" Thai's don't understand the time value of money " .

I agree with FD 333 and with Midas. Surely the BKK market is as frustrating as it gets. A very good Friend of mine who lives in my condo who made his fortune in the Los Vegas property bubble selling within a year for 100% gains on multiple property's, probably when most of us were 10 still couldn't manage a discount when buying into a condo that I bought in a year ago. However he did get a DVD player. I got a $300 mobile phone. his dvd is so thin I doubt at his age he could find the hole so he gave it away

[FD333]

Midas

Yeah, your friends quote is a apt one!

How many penthouse apartments were left as bareshell over the years? So many that at one point it became a 'promotion' for one real estate company to represent them collectively? Who owns them and why? No fit and and no rental? It is a murky area that most of us will never get to the bottom of.

There is also another aspect none of us have touched on, that of 'non-performing loans'. I am not implying that the situation approximates 1997, but it is still out there to a degree.

A number of middle-class and connected Thais have been extended loans to buy property well beyond their means. If my observation is correct, so far the banks have been 'lenient' with delinquent payments, though I do think discipline has somewhat been exercised recently. That said, like personal credit card debt, which is enormous in Thailand, banks are hesitant to really deal with the situation as it might produce a house of cards effect (but this still does not bear comparison with the level of sub-prime and slack lending that went on in the US and UK). In my opinion, if the banks had to truly confront then deal with NPL's (including CC debt) then the consequence would likely produce a price correction in the property market.

Problem is, don't hold your breath. As always, the ostrich like approach will be bury your head in the sand and lets hope an economic rebound is around the corner and we can all skate away unscathed...