Opportunity Comes Knocking

[CaptainARK1]

A slight detour from the technical side to the fundamental side of markets .....

Everywhere you look its clear that THE MAN is urging, tempting, coaxing injured investors to be brave and reenter the market or risk missing the new bullmarket. New YorK Times article suggests, "be brave"

and so it is for without the gullible 98%, the remaining 2% could never get richer - easier to just give them the paychecks directly.

But nobody is giving these investors the OTHER facts - the underground data - especially the data from ICI

-------------------------------

Captain uncovers 2 significant items directly correlated to the stock market - courtesy of ICI & CMartenson

(1) Mutual fund inflows/outflows

(2) Corporate Insider buying/selling

[CaptainARK1]

See my previous post on the curiously low, low, low volume since March bottom .. now comes this

Good money flowed into the stock market in March onwards but has fallen off a cliff in the last 3 weeks

Insiders (Fortune) .....

Corporate officers and directors have been selling shares at a pace last seen just before the onset of the subprime malaise two years ago.

$31 worth of insider stock sales in August for every $1 of insider buys InsiderScore.com web site that tracks trading action, said insiders are selling at their most aggressive clip since the summer of 2007.

Insiders sell for various reasons but the tables also show that corp. insiders were buyng furiously at the Feb-March period.

2 charts next

[CaptainARK1]

I know there are no more than 3 chartists on this site but these 2 charts are crayon type drawings, very easy to digest.

[CaptainARK1]

Gold reversal imminent.

Logic as per my "symmetrical triangle" post earlier in this thread - although the breakout can go either way from such a triangle, I am sticking to my orignal assessment that this is a major rend reversal for years to come.

Price currently doing a throw-over = overshoot of the triangle topline border on both Daily and Weekly.

If I am correct in this anal-ysis, bulls will be caught off guard like so many times in history when a $60 drop takes place in a lightening flash.

If I'm wrong and anybody is Long, good for you. Enjoy and congrats.

--------------------

All my trades are as-is - still Short.

--------------------

Sharpening my Gold reversal call ...

Silver currently at 16.05. When/if Silver hits 16.42, my Call has better odds of going into instantaneous reversal motion.

One more thing - the soon-to-be-new downtrend in Gold will last for 1-3 years

$ and Yen - that's the ticket. Plain old maligned paper currency, nothing else, no bonds, no real estate, no stamps, no coins, no art, no classic cars. Get rid of it all, travel light.

Repeating, just $, Yen AND the wife and kids. Dump everything else.

Silver's highest close thus far was 16.73 - reasonably close o 16.42 but a few more days will settle everything about her and goldie.

No change in call here.

Plugging a semi-tight stop on my short GBPJPY trades. Unless GBPJPY can break below 148.77 (closing basis) the trades will continue to be low leverage. Itching to hammer in full Lot shorts but too dicey just yet.

Euro/Yen looks like its ready to continue breaking the entire rally uptrendline but there is no confirmation from the rest of the gang, namely AUD, NZD, CAD, CHF vs JPY, which generally move in tandem. GBP is the only one that has busted its uptrendline.

Remember, dump everything except $, Yen and wife/kids?

I have no kids and $ has not yet obliged, but Yen has been doing so in spades since mid-2007, not just in trading, in actual holding. And while all this has been going on, the world banking system has obliged further by sending all SAFE manufacturing companies into roaring bullmarkets. A nice one stuck in concrete does give one the illusion of bank independence.

One only needs to look at a Yen weekly chart and look to the left.

Siam commercial is still on its ass about getting higher denom Yen notes and still require 3 days to get the dough from BKK.

Expectation is for Dollar/Yen to retest 80 - it is a fifth wave so we should exceed that to the downside. And this scenario will play out despite my expectation of a $ bullmarket against all other currencies. The Yen should keep hammering the $. But I dig 'em both.

[CaptainARK1]

A pic is worth a 1000 ...... .... but a chart is worth a 1000 pics .... so this is my thought-ing on Gold

note that sub-wave e throws over out of the triangle. This throw-over is even more proof to me that bullishness is rampant and that one would be hardpressed to find any gold bear - except for yours truly here.

Now dig this jinx ..... step back a bit and view from a distance ....

(1) See the Inverse Head and Shoulders? Yep, if this plays out, Gold can go to 20k = death of the Dollar and = death of the USA. If this happens, who will be head honcho of planet Earth? ... The europeans? The Brits? The Australians? The Chinese? The Joymans? The Japs? I'd die from uncontrollable, incessant laughter if any of these named countries could even tie their shoe laces without the help of the USA.

(2) Then look at the potential Double-Top - a classic reversal pattern - one that has reversed soooooo many magnificent trends in the past. If you dug it so far, then have a look at the distance to the neckline (point A) - if that neckline breaks Gold will go to .......

So let's just be conservative and say Goldie's next stop is at the neckline = $680. Then we see if my other target is going to play out or not.

I bought a 1000 USD the day before the gold rally and now I am getting killed, I own waaaaay more gold then USD so I dont really care. You are aware that Prechter is calling for $2000 gold after his latest deflation wave right ?

There is no way in hel_l that I would have bought thee dollars before the dollar tanked. I only got them because the last trip to Thailand I took was just before the Canadian dollar went down so I didn t want to get burned again. Its a very small position but I will hold these dollars till they go above what I paid no matter what, even if it takes 20 years or in your case 20 days.

>>>You are aware that Prechter is calling for $2000 gold after his latest deflation wave right ? <<<<

Not sure I follow you Sokal - please clarify the question/statement about Prechter ...

what I do know about Prechter and EWI is that they are incredibly tight-lipped and quiet right now, not saying a word since gold broke out of the triangle. There is only one question about gold on their subscriber bulletin help board and the impression I got was that their subscribers are starting to get hopping mad again. So I really have no idea what Prechter is thinking about Gold's recent rally.

Ditto for Nadeem - he is one of the last 3 remaining dollar bulls, Prechter and myself being the other 2.

If Prechter has backed out, I'm the last one left.

Nadeem is now gong into a tailspin and confessing that he needs to do a complete revamp of his dollar analysis and that it is going to require alot of deep thought. No word on when this analysis is going to be released. If you didn't already know, Nadeem is an excellent tech. specialist IMO.

Let me know what you meant about Precky.

[CaptainARK1]

When Wave 2 is over and rolls over, there will literally be no place to hide - meaning there will be no assets to escape into or to.

My pal Barack Obama has clearly stated that Geithner and he have been successful in staving off the crash They are all dead wrong

I almost wish now that McCain had won because I would be willing for the bearmarket to waste him - but not Obama. I want him to win, but don't see how he possibly can.

So given your other posts you predict no escape from coming crash...( which I agree there is a crash on its way) ...But your thinking is in this crash everyone will again run to the dollar? Since you predict the dollar up as do others. While I am sure many will have no choice since they are selling & in dollars. I do not see how that will be bad for gold. Folks will probably run to gold & silver as much as there is supply. As more & more see Obama Geithner et al have been so wrong why run to the dollar?

As for you Pal Obama you say he is Dead wrong yet you wish McCain had won so Obama does not pay the price for being wrong?

Assuming I understood you correctly, I'll clarify .....

I couldn't stand McCain. Had he won there'd just be more war, more killing, more f***in up other countries and with Sarah Palin war with Iran would be a given. A total screw-up, America's 200 year goodwill would be lost in 10 seconds IMO. George Bush already hammered this goodwill down to 40% value.

But in hindsight I would now prefer McCain to have won just so that Obama would be spared the humiliation of going up against JAWS - aka the tsunami wave 3 crash yet to come - against which he will surely lose and lose all his credibility and goodwill. Yes, I would have to contend with wars et al with McCain, but I don't want to see Barack go down like this againast an enemy he has no chance of winning.

Ditto for Tim Geithner - how can anybody not like this guy, his inability to fix the problems notwithstanding?

[CaptainARK1]

Now that the Gold bulls have called me by name and identified me as the sole surviving Dollar bull, I'm happy that I'm not a young fellow anymore - being older, death is not that far away anyway so its not a big deal. My only real fear in life was to be broke and end up dying in a gutter somewhere. Being alone per se never bothered me.

But (this also answers sokal's question about how I can go against the fundamental of the markets) a chartist ought to know that Price has everything built into it, everything known to man aka the general investing public, everything except acts of God and George Bush.

So at any given moment, Price encompasses within itself every thought, attitude, action, expectation etc. about that instrument or entity. All fundamental factors are therefore already embedded in Price. The biggest problem has been that Technical analysis, which deals with pure Price action only is still a young science, fraught with perils and incomplete methodology. But its all I got.

What is the alternative?

[CaptainARK1]

To listen to some Harvard fundamental analyst with a multimillion dollar salary, who shoots off buy and sell orders and then when his client loses big, says, "tough" and goes home having earned a nice big hefty commission on my losses?

I'd rather die at my own hand than let someone else call the shots with my savings. That way nobody is responsible but me.

Robert Prechter once said that a fellow could lock himself up in a room far away from any city or market action and with just his laptop and charts could pick any instrument, even one that he'd never heard of, as long as there was the daily open, low, close and high and could just from this, make intelligent decisions about the future of said instrument.

I firmly made this concept my own. I bought it and it belongs to me now. So I live with it.

With that let me detail the near-term US dollar Index bottom that I see coming up very soon. I'm going to try to nail it down to the very 48-hour period of inception.

This means death of Gold and Silver. This is therefore not just a twofer, rather a 3-fer.

[CaptainARK1]

Dollar Index long-term bottom is within striking distance on the 4H = 240-min. timeframe.

The last wave down on 4H was underway from August 17th (wave 4 top). So after this current today's rally completes whenever, I believe we have one final downleg on 4H. And that's it. Dollar bullmarket starts then.

Is it possible that today's rally is already the start? Yes, but I need to see more wave action to ascertain this.

I'll try to nail it as close as I possibly can - all done in realtime.

[CaptainARK1]

[badge]

Are you familiar with the tale of The Boy Who Cried Wolf?

[lannarebirth]

Now that the Gold bulls have called me by name and identified me as the sole surviving Dollar bull, I'm happy that I'm not a young fellow anymore - being older, death is not that far away anyway so its not a big deal. My only real fear in life was to be broke and end up dying in a gutter somewhere. Being alone per se never bothered me.

But (this also answers sokal's question about how I can go against the fundamental of the markets) a chartist ought to know that Price has everything built into it, everything known to man aka the general investing public, everything except acts of God and George Bush.

So at any given moment, Price encompasses within itself every thought, attitude, action, expectation etc. about that instrument or entity. All fundamental factors are therefore already embedded in Price. The biggest problem has been that Technical analysis, which deals with pure Price action only is still a young science, fraught with perils and incomplete methodology. But its all I got.

What is the alternative?

You might investigate a methodology that encompasses TIME into your work. Just saying.

[flying]

You might investigate a methodology that encompasses TIME into your work. Just saying.

Or he could at least tell us his definition of IMMINENT

[Naam]

You might investigate a methodology that encompasses TIME into your work. Just saying.

Or he could at least tell us his definition of IMMINENT

a few minutes ago one of my dogs demanded that i open him the doors to the garden. reason: a dump was imminent.

[flying]

a few minutes ago one of my dogs demanded that i open him the doors to the garden. reason: a dump was imminent.

LOL lucky you understood his use of imminent

The other posters bloggers use of imminent has been imminent for some time now

Edited September 15, 2009 by flying

[CaptainARK1]

Dollar Index long-term bottom is within striking distance on the 4H = 240-min. timeframe.

The last wave down on 4H was underway from August 17th (wave 4 top). So after this current today's rally completes whenever, I believe we have one final downleg on 4H. And that's it. Dollar bullmarket starts then.

Is it possible that today's rally is already the start? Yes, but I need to see more wave action to ascertain this.

I'll try to nail it as close as I possibly can - all done in realtime.

Dollar Index at 76.47 and crashing like only a true champion can. But the Captain, as thick as his skull is and as daft as he usually is, can still count from 1-5 and as stated in the prev. post those 5 are almost - being completed now ...

Do a quick tune-up of the 9-11 (the ONLY automobile engineering marvel in existence) and park it facing north. Expect to be just one of two drivers on this northbound route. Expect to see traffic jams galore on the southbound route.

Go back indoors and watch TV and wait. For that magnificent green bar on 60-min.

Then get up and drive. That's the big swing.

No music necessary, just the purr of the engine.

First pit-stop is the 90 Km. marker.

Beer and food is on the Captain.

[CaptainARK1]

The only other driver on the northbound road is Jim Martens, Head of Currency Research at Elliottwave International. He posted his thoughts on the dollar yesterday, but provides no chart. But nobody at EWI has said a word about Gold lately. I can only conclude that they are rattled or keeping mum to draw in juicy subscription fees as the elliott public wobbles amidst Gold's sexy dance.

But is Bobby really rattled? I would find that hard to believe. Still, his organization must deal with the fact that many investors died from his continuous bearish stance thru' the 2003+ bullrun and that if he gets gold wrong, it also blows his Deflation stance. So there is alot of pressure on Bobby. Heck, he singlehandedly supports the salaries of 6 high-paid analysts and many, many other staff. Without him there is really no EWI as any reader can quickly conclude that there is a lightyear difference between his written stuff and even that of Steve's.

Bobby is the sole technician of substance on Planet Earth today IMHO. I'm honored to be his student.

Someday I'll get around to explaining why he is so good at what he does despite the flubs in market timing - but a quick hint is that this turn in the worldwide markets is of the order of 100+ years and the actual top was January 2000 - so the turning aka topping process is huge and has already lasted so many years. He had the foresight to envision this.

By the by, I'm not pumping their services - I'm not a subscriber any more as I'm now entirely on my own for quite some time - but I'll read or watch anything Bobby puts out.

[CaptainARK1]

Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke said this yesterday

"The recovery is underway. The economic downturn has been contained"

I like this gent too - and recognize the enormity of his task and that its easy for bystanders or armchair critics to bash him. Personally I don't hold it against him if he is wrong. I have no criticism of him - but just a reminder of his past statements and then the obvious question

March 28th, 2007 - "At this juncture the impact of the problems in the subprime markets seems likely to be contained,"

June 20th, 2007 - (the subprime fallout) ``will not affect the economy overall.''

Oct 15th, 2007 - "It is not the responsibility of the Federal Reserve - to protect lenders and investors from the consequences of their financial decisions."

Feb 29th, 2008 - I expect there will be some failures. I don't anticipate any serious problems of that sort among the large internationally active banks that make up a very substantial part of our banking system."

June 9th, 2008 - Despite a recent spike in the nation's unemployment rate, the danger that the economy has fallen into a "substantial downturn" appears to have waned.

So the obvious question to the Gentle Ben is this,

if you didn't see it coming how can you tell that it is gone or cured?

[CaptainARK1]

The sole gent I don't like is former Treasury Secy. Henry Paulson who was also the head honcho Goldman Sachs, who now effectively rule the financial world and IMHO run the White House too. I'm relatively sure that my pal Barack does not like this situation at all but is forced to go along with it, despite being the President.

Where did the $750 billion go?

Here are Henry Paulson's statements before and during the crash .....

July 12th, 2007 – Paulson: "This is far and away the strongest global economy I've seen in my business lifetime."

The sub prime mess is over at 100 billion loss (Henry Paulson in 2008) ..... the losses then went on to almost $13 trillion.

---------------------------------

That's why CaptainARK prefers to lose his own money his own way rather than cats like Paulson do it for him.

[lannarebirth]

The only other driver on the northbound road is Jim Martens, Head of Currency Research at Elliottwave International. He posted his thoughts on the dollar yesterday, but provides no chart. But nobody at EWI has said a word about Gold lately. I can only conclude that they are rattled or keeping mum to draw in juicy subscription fees as the elliott public wobbles amidst Gold's sexy dance.

But is Bobby really rattled? I would find that hard to believe. Still, his organization must deal with the fact that many investors died from his continuous bearish stance thru' the 2003+ bullrun and that if he gets gold wrong, it also blows his Deflation stance. So there is alot of pressure on Bobby. Heck, he singlehandedly supports the salaries of 6 high-paid analysts and many, many other staff. Without him there is really no EWI as any reader can quickly conclude that there is a lightyear difference between his written stuff and even that of Steve's.

Bobby is the sole technician of substance on Planet Earth today IMHO. I'm honored to be his student.

Someday I'll get around to explaining why he is so good at what he does despite the flubs in market timing - but a quick hint is that this turn in the worldwide markets is of the order of 100+ years and the actual top was January 2000 - so the turning aka topping process is huge and has already lasted so many years. He had the foresight to envision this.

By the by, I'm not pumping their services - I'm not a subscriber any more as I'm now entirely on my own for quite some time - but I'll read or watch anything Bobby puts out.

Hey Cap. Good luck with the Gold position.

I think its pretty clear we're in a Supercycle. Is it EWI's belief we are in a Grand Supercycle as well?

[lannarebirth]

The Dark Angel on my left shoulder is saying "Go ahead update the picture. You know you want to and besides he was rude to you". The Angel of Mercy on my right shoulder says "Show some compassion, he's learned his lesson. You know you hate to see anyone lose money that makes an honest effort". So I'll just say Good Luck Cap.

[flying]

The Dark Angel on my left shoulder is saying "Go ahead update the picture. You know you want to and besides he was rude to you". The Angel of Mercy on my right shoulder says "Show some compassion, he's learned his lesson. You know you hate to see anyone lose money that makes an honest effort". So I'll just say Good Luck Cap.

Agreed Good Luck!

But...I am glad I kept the wife, the kids, the paddle game, & this ashtray

Oh & this remote control

Edited September 16, 2009 by flying

[sokal]

To listen to some Harvard fundamental analyst with a multimillion dollar salary, who shoots off buy and sell orders and then when his client loses big, says, "tough" and goes home having earned a nice big hefty commission on my losses?

I'd rather die at my own hand than let someone else call the shots with my savings. That way nobody is responsible but me.

Robert Prechter once said that a fellow could lock himself up in a room far away from any city or market action and with just his laptop and charts could pick any instrument, even one that he'd never heard of, as long as there was the daily open, low, close and high and could just from this, make intelligent decisions about the future of said instrument.

I firmly made this concept my own. I bought it and it belongs to me now. So I live with it.

With that let me detail the near-term US dollar Index bottom that I see coming up very soon. I'm going to try to nail it down to the very 48-hour period of inception.

This means death of Gold and Silver. This is therefore not just a twofer, rather a 3-fer.

We all agree that the stock market is going to crash, you keep thinking that gold bulls are also stock bulls. That is not the case.

Gold is a currency

[sokal]

Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke said this yesterday

"The recovery is underway. The economic downturn has been contained"

I like this gent too - and recognize the enormity of his task and that its easy for bystanders or armchair critics to bash him. Personally I don't hold it against him if he is wrong. I have no criticism of him - but just a reminder of his past statements and then the obvious question

March 28th, 2007 - "At this juncture the impact of the problems in the subprime markets seems likely to be contained,"

June 20th, 2007 - (the subprime fallout) ``will not affect the economy overall.''

Oct 15th, 2007 - "It is not the responsibility of the Federal Reserve - to protect lenders and investors from the consequences of their financial decisions."

Feb 29th, 2008 - I expect there will be some failures. I don't anticipate any serious problems of that sort among the large internationally active banks that make up a very substantial part of our banking system."

June 9th, 2008 - Despite a recent spike in the nation's unemployment rate, the danger that the economy has fallen into a "substantial downturn" appears to have waned.

So the obvious question to the Gentle Ben is this,

if you didn't see it coming how can you tell that it is gone or cured?

And this is the guy that is the manager of the dollar. With a record like that, I am sure glad my money is not getting controlled by him.

[CaptainARK1]

The sole gent I don't like is former Treasury Secy. Henry Paulson who was also the head honcho Goldman Sachs, who now effectively rule the financial world and IMHO run the White House too. I'm relatively sure that my pal Barack does not like this situation at all but is forced to go along with it, despite being the President.

Where did the $750 billion go?

Here are Henry Paulson's statements before and during the crash .....

July 12th, 2007 – Paulson: "This is far and away the strongest global economy I've seen in my business lifetime."

The sub prime mess is over at 100 billion loss (Henry Paulson in 2008) ..... the losses then went on to almost $13 trillion.

---------------------------------

That's why CaptainARK prefers to lose his own money his own way rather than cats like Paulson do it for him.

---------------------------------------

Dollar Index as-is as per most recent post. No change in stance.

----------------------------------------

Thanks to Nadeem for this ....

The following video illustrates just how close the U.S. Financial System came towards total collapse. At 2 minutes, 20 seconds into this C-Span video clip, Rep. Paul Kanjorski of Pennsylvania in February 2009 explains how the Federal Reserve told Congress members about a "tremendous draw-down of money market accounts in the United States, to the tune of $550 billion dollars." According to Kanjorski, this electronic transfer occurred over the period of an hour and threatened a further $5 trillion to be drawn out triggering a total collapse of the Financial System, which prompted Hank Paulson's emergency $700 billion TARP bailout action.

[CaptainARK1]

Dollar Index following my blueprint chart with the prev. 5-waves chart showing the probable bottom on Friday.

All currency trades doing even better than before, but SET50 futures trading is very slightly in the red.

I want to see Dollar take out some barriers before I'm willing to turn on some leverage.

So I wait, but am happy with what I see thus far.

Patience is a virtue in a bear market - continues to give CaptainARK deeper meaning.

[lannarebirth]

Dollar Index following my blueprint chart with the prev. 5-waves chart showing the probable bottom on Friday.

All currency trades doing even better than before, but SET50 futures trading is very slightly in the red.

I want to see Dollar take out some barriers before I'm willing to turn on some leverage.

So I wait, but am happy with what I see thus far.

Patience is a virtue in a bear market - continues to give CaptainARK deeper meaning.

This is worrying as September 25th marks the center of my own $USD bottom window.

[CaptainARK1]

My objective revisited:

To catch the next market leg aka wave as early as possible after it starts. For the Dollar Index its the next upwave, for Set50 futures its the next downwave.

[churchill]

I expect one time you may be right

[CaptainARK1]

My objective revisited:

To catch the next market leg aka wave as early as possible after it starts. For the Dollar Index its the next upwave, for Set50 futures its the next downwave.

Dollar Index is doing well. I'm pleased.

He must close above 77.06 as his first step. This also coincides approx. with a 38.2% retracement of the most recent 240-min. downwave. So plenty of resistance overhead.

Dropping down to the 60-min. timeframe Dollar is smack into the 100% retracement of the most recent 60-min. downwave. Now dig this - if he can get past this convincingly, we've got a good shot he could go to 161.8% on same timeframe = 77.73.