Red Shirts' Planned Rally Worries Pm

[tig28]

I say it's a myth that military exercies a great deal of control. I don't see any evidence of that.

Selective vision I would suggest, Plus. Your "myth" unfortunately rears its ugly head on a regular basis. To choose but one example--- widely reported and involving of vast amounts of money ----- I refer you to the announcement by deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban (who was in charge of national security issues) --- that the government was going to establish a new agency to replace the Southern Border Provinces Administration Centre (SBPAC).

SBPAC (controlled by the army) has been plagued with claims of immense corruption since its inception.

The deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban stated that the new agency would be directly supervised by the prime minister or himself.

Plus ---The above was reported in all national newspapers for several days--- I refer you to the POST ----- published: 23/12/2008. Then a few days later (7/1/09) the same newspaper published statements by Army chief Anupong Paojinda on this plan to dissolve SBPAC, where he revealed that "he had discussed this with Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thuagsuban and they agreed that the centre will not be disbanded."

It took the army chief but a few days to reverse this Government decision --- which could have removed hundreds of millions from the paws of the army and redirected it to those in real need. Its hard to take your blinkered views seriously when such blatant corruption rates not a peep from you ---- oh ...I am sorry you cannot "see any evidence ..........."

[Plus]

It's not "few days" between December 2008 and July 2009.

The "new" Sbpac WILL be under office of Prime Minister, not the army, and it will be led by the brother of the former Spbac chief who was largely responsible for keeping peace there for great many years. He was appointed Privy Council when Thaksin disbanded Spbac in 2003, a few months before the violence flared again.

What is army's involvement in all this again? What is so extraordinary about it? Spbac WILL have to coordinate with the military, and the police, and the local governments.

They can't bypass the military altogether when making decisions regarding security situation in the South.

How is it that the army is control again?

[tig28]

It's not "few days" between December 2008 and July 2009.

The "new" Sbpac WILL be under office of Prime Minister, not the army, and it will be led by the brother of the former Spbac chief who was largely responsible for keeping peace there for great many years. He was appointed Privy Council when Thaksin disbanded Spbac in 2003, a few months before the violence flared again.

What is army's involvement in all this again? What is so extraordinary about it? 7/1/09 WILL have to coordinate with the military, and the police, and the local governments.

They can't bypass the military altogether when making decisions regarding security situation in the South.

How is it that the army is control again?

Hi Plus

The dates mentioned were 23/12/2008 and 7/1/09 --- that is few days - Plus- -- between the Governments bold announcment of the New SBPAC ....... and the subsequent announcment by Army chief Anupong Paojinda that the Government had changed its mind after "discussion" between the deputy PM and himself.

How is the government in control again ?

[hammered]

It's not "few days" between December 2008 and July 2009.

The "new" Sbpac WILL be under office of Prime Minister, not the army, and it will be led by the brother of the former Spbac chief who was largely responsible for keeping peace there for great many years. He was appointed Privy Council when Thaksin disbanded Spbac in 2003, a few months before the violence flared again.

What is army's involvement in all this again? What is so extraordinary about it? 7/1/09 WILL have to coordinate with the military, and the police, and the local governments.

They can't bypass the military altogether when making decisions regarding security situation in the South.

How is it that the army is control again?

Hi Plus

The dates mentioned were 23/12/2008 and 7/1/09 --- that is few days - Plus- -- between the Governments bold announcment of the New SBPAC ....... and the subsequent announcment by Army chief Anupong Paojinda that the Government had changed its mind after "discussion" between the deputy PM and himself.

How is the government in control again ?

The context of the army brass-BJT and possibly/probably Suthep alliance against the Abhisit-Chuan Dem alliance in government is once again crucial to analyse these things

[animatic]

some photos from last weeks meeting

What, you don't believe we met?

Sorry, we didn't think to bring a camera.

Neither is young and cute enough to care about photo-ops anymore.

Edited August 26, 2009 by animatic

[Plus]

[

The dates mentioned were 23/12/2008 and 7/1/09 --- that is few days - Plus- -- between the Governments bold announcment of the New SBPAC ....... and the subsequent announcment by Army chief Anupong Paojinda that the Government had changed its mind after "discussion" between the deputy PM and himself.

How is the government in control again ?

Sorry, misread 7/1/2009.

The fact is that the government has wrestled control of SPBAC and put it under Prime Minister's Office. SPBAC used to rely on Isoc budget but now has got its own funding.

How's that the military in control here?

And if you refer to Anupong's earlier discussions with Suthep - what's so unusual about this? It is Anupong's JOB to propose security solutions to the southern insurgency problem. And no one knows what's the best administrative solution was/is. Last year Dems wanted to disband SPBAC altogether, this year they made is stronger than ever in its history.

The army has direct responsibility, even if shared, for whatever happens in the South. I bet that's not what Scott had in mind when he said that generals were in control.

[baht&sold]

some photos from last weeks meeting

Some more photos from recent (and next weeks?) meeting:

Any word if the Thaksin clan has gone on another 'urgent' overseas shopping trip yet?

Hate for them to miss the next 'meet' starting this Sunday, should be a 'bloody riot'...

Edit: after discussion we have deleted the pictures of black songkran as they do not contribute to the discussion and only stir things up. Let's stay on topic here. - mario2008.

Edited August 26, 2009 by Mario2008

[hammered]

Declaring the the security act in place could well be Abhisit ensuring his position from any accidents. Songkhran and the difficulty in getting movement to enforce the emergency decree until units from certain places were brought in will no doubt have not gone unmissed by him not least considering at one point there were calls to hunt him down.

These demos must have Abhisit worrying about what not only the reds are going to get up to but also what the military and that wing of his government are going to do.

[Plus]

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/worldhotne...negro:-Thepthai

Thaksin banished from Dubai, fleeing to Montenegro: Thepthai

By The Nation

Ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra has been expelled from Dubai and is presently living in exile in Montenegro since Tuesday, Democrat MP Thepthai Senpong said on Wednesday.

Theptai quoted a report from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to back up his claim.

He said United Arab Emeriates authorities asked Thaksin to leave after he continued to use Dubai as base for his anti-government activities.

Thaksin made a phone-in on August 13 at the red-shirt rally to submit the pardon petition. His latest phone-in to the red shirts took place on Monday when he hosted a luncheon at a beef noodle shop on Rama VII Road.

He said he made his telephone call enroute to Montenegro.

[hammered]

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/worldhotne...negro:-Thepthai

Thaksin banished from Dubai, fleeing to Montenegro: Thepthai

By The Nation

Ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra has been expelled from Dubai and is presently living in exile in Montenegro since Tuesday, Democrat MP Thepthai Senpong said on Wednesday.

Theptai quoted a report from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to back up his claim.

He said United Arab Emeriates authorities asked Thaksin to leave after he continued to use Dubai as base for his anti-government activities.

Thaksin made a phone-in on August 13 at the red-shirt rally to submit the pardon petition. His latest phone-in to the red shirts took place on Monday when he hosted a luncheon at a beef noodle shop on Rama VII Road.

He said he made his telephone call enroute to Montenegro.

How can you host something if you arent there?

We are back to making call ins form airplanes in international airspace to avoid embarrassment for hosts.

[Plus]

There was an article about that lunch, with pictures, in the Nation. Everybody could grab a phone and talk to him.

The way it's going he'll soon start calling in to roadside noodle vendors, motosai stands, karaoke bars, probably public toilets, too. I guess the strategy is to get mainstream media to make it into a big story themselves. Or maybe it's an aging diva complex - need to be in the media at all costs. Maybe he'll start paying paparazzis to get "intimate" shots of him that would make it into Daily News or Thai Rath.

[tig28]

Sorry, misread 7/1/2009.

The fact is that the government has wrestled control of SPBAC and put it under Prime Minister's Office. SPBAC used to rely on Isoc budget but now has got its own funding.

How's that the military in control here?

And if you refer to Anupong's earlier discussions with Suthep - what's so unusual about this? It is Anupong's JOB to propose security solutions to the southern insurgency problem. And no one knows what's the best administrative solution was/is. Last year Dems wanted to disband SPBAC altogether, this year they made is stronger than ever in its history.

The army has direct responsibility, even if shared, for whatever happens in the South. I bet that's not what Scott had in mind when he said that generals were in control.

Hi plus

misread eh ? age unfortunatly creeps up on us all ----- have you had those reading glasses checked recently??

The point I was attempting to make was was the perception (perhaps reality) of the interaction between the government (in the person of the Deputy PM ) announcing that a government dacision had been made ----one would hope with significant concideration and purpose ----that:

"The Democrat-led government plans to establish a new agency to replace the Southern Border Provinces Administration Centre (SBPAC), which carries out non-military work related to the southern insurgency.

The new agency would be directly supervised by the prime minister or his deputy, said deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban, who is in charge of national security issues.(bangkok post - 23/12/08)

"

With the army chief Plus.... Who some 2 weeks later the in the same newspaper is quoted as saying this (7/1/09):

"Commenting on the plan to dissolve the Southern Border Province Administration Centre (SBPAC), he (Army chief Anupong Paojinda} said he had discussed this with Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thuagsuban and they agreed that the centre will not be disbanded."

You ask me "what's so unusual about this?" ------- Today ?? ... In Thailand ?? .... not very much --- it is just reality. Very weak government finally trying to set one single thing right ..... maybe working hard at it --- lots of effort and a grand announcment of the great plan to try to fix what can only be described as a national disaster - sadly to run foul of a stronger organisation which has its eyes on a fixed very valuable prise .... this is not consultation Plus ---- this is reality being delivered to the government in no uncertain terms ----

Certainly nowhere else in the world (within reason) could the chief of the army dare so bold as to publicly reverse a government decision in a quote to newspapers.

You tell me that an alternative arrangement has been thrashed out and you suggest this is all fine and dandy... all is now well with the world. I hope your optimism is justified --- silly old me --- I would prefer the government actually made the decisions in these matters.

[hammered]

There was an article about that lunch, with pictures, in the Nation. Everybody could grab a phone and talk to him.

The way it's going he'll soon start calling in to roadside noodle vendors, motosai stands, karaoke bars, probably public toilets, too. I guess the strategy is to get mainstream media to make it into a big story themselves. Or maybe it's an aging diva complex - need to be in the media at all costs. Maybe he'll start paying paparazzis to get "intimate" shots of him that would make it into Daily News or Thai Rath.

There is also a lot more talk about his health again. It is hard to know the truth behind that one. There have been some claims that certain Thai doctors have been flying regulalrly to Dubai.

I doubt he will go the route of raunchy shots of him and some sex goddess flown into Dubai or Montenegro just to get attention. That would spoil the current image although possibly also bring into question one of the rumoured health conditions.

At some point this game has to come to an end though as Thailand is pretty much at a politcal dead end and some pressure needs to be released.

[Scott]

And unlike a lot of stalemates, this one has the potential to become critical. I've not known Thailand to deal with these kinds of divisions in the society. I know historically they have, but in most people's living memory, I doubt it.

[Datsun240Z]

I believe some group of yellow shirts, blocked airports and managed to make the world headlines? Reds violent?

[Domanter]

Hello, the red shirt people have a lot of thugs and/or psychopaths as members so they should worry most people in Thailand because no one will know what they will do or to what extent. Violence is in the recent history of the red shirt meetings, and I hope for the best things to happen for Thailand as the world is watching.

hahaha, now we have a non-sense poster, why would the people that are getting cleared out by Thaksin go to a group that Supports him? So basically you are saying those mafias and thugs that will become EXTINCT in Thailand soon are supporting Thaksin to clear them out???

HAHAHAHA, great joke. Clap Clap for the Yellow.

[Moonrakers]

Hello, the red shirt people have a lot of thugs and/or psychopaths as members so they should worry most people in Thailand because no one will know what they will do or to what extent. Violence is in the recent history of the red shirt meetings, and I hope for the best things to happen for Thailand as the world is watching.

hahaha, now we have a non-sense poster, why would the people that are getting cleared out by Thaksin go to a group that Supports him? So basically you are saying those mafias and thugs that will become EXTINCT in Thailand soon are supporting Thaksin to clear them out???

HAHAHAHA, great joke. Clap Clap for the Yellow.

Hells bells.

[hammered]

And unlike a lot of stalemates, this one has the potential to become critical. I've not known Thailand to deal with these kinds of divisions in the society. I know historically they have, but in most people's living memory, I doubt it.

My guess is that it is now deals at the up there level or violence (followed by deals). Everything else will be just manovering for a better hand if a deal comes. Elections wont solve anything as without a deal no party will be able to run the country as we have already seen. Elections could though change the hands. Violence can change hands too.

Although Thaksin remains central to what happens it now goes beyond that. There are powerful people locked into all sides and groupings and distrust and emnity have become severe and emotions rule. And the constant politicization/propogandization and even hate campaigns have pretty much left the people divided. It is messy.

Funny thing is when the elite of all sides work a deal the polarization will abate. However who is going to arrange, host and broker a deal especially in an enviroment where even allies dont trust one another.

[TAWP]

There was an article about that lunch, with pictures, in the Nation. Everybody could grab a phone and talk to him.

The way it's going he'll soon start calling in to roadside noodle vendors, motosai stands, karaoke bars, probably public toilets, too. I guess the strategy is to get mainstream media to make it into a big story themselves. Or maybe it's an aging diva complex - need to be in the media at all costs. Maybe he'll start paying paparazzis to get "intimate" shots of him that would make it into Daily News or Thai Rath.

Snaps of him wearing short skirts and no underwear?

[marshbags]

The judgement to impliment the Internal Security Act is a good one.

Looking at the history of the recent violence in Chang Mai alone, demonstrates the potential any red meeting has and what usually takes place.

I would bet a satang to a million baht that had this not been done to cover the three day period, things would be totally different.

The Udon faction prior to this had been on stand by to travel down to Bangkok, as i feel sure other elliments would also have done so.

Far better to prevent rather than deal with anything that could happen and if so be criticised for not doing it in the first place.

No harm done and a sound judgement IMHO

I reckon a certain fugitive in exile is a bit miffed off, seeing his dishonest, disruptive intentions being stalled by the " young inexperienced upstart " ( his words, not mine ! )

marshbags

[Scott]

Hammered, I understand where you are coming from, but I don't know if the big power brokers have the ability to stop the monster that is in motion right now. There is something of a personality cult that leaves a very significant power broker as a wild card. If he isn't allowed to return, he won't play fairly and if he is, the others won't play fairly.

Maybe if enough time can be bought along the way and the economy begins to improve, the problem will slowly begin to go away--but that maybe wishful thinking.

I think there are too many people who are vying for power and the normal horse trading just doesn't cut it anymore.

Hope your right, though.

[Plus]

Sorry, misread 7/1/2009.

Hi plus

misread eh ? age unfortunatly creeps up on us all ----- have you had those reading glasses checked recently??

7/1/2009 is indeed ambiguous date - could be July, could be January.

The point I was attempting to make was ....

..Very weak government finally trying to set one single thing right ..... lots of effort and a grand announcment of the great plan..

What great plan are you talking about? By that time the govt hasn't even made a policy statement in parliament!

It was just an idea, and they haven't even figured what new agency was supposed to take over SPBAC's duties. Not to mention that long term solutions to the Southern problems couldn't possibly be very high on Dems agenda just two weeks after forming the sensational new govt coalition. Everybody was fascinated by things like Abhisit-Newin hug then.

And now you are saying that Anupong's suggestion to keep Spbac for the time being was the sign of a week government under military control?

Grasping at straws.

If that was true - where was military opposition when a few months later the govt put new SPBAC legislation in parliament? If the military was so firmly in control, why did it let SPBAC go without a fight?

I doubt he will go the route of raunchy shots of him and some sex goddess flown into Dubai or Montenegro just to get attention. That would spoil the current image although possibly also bring into question one of the rumoured health conditions.

Oh no, I meant simple street shots like we had from London in 2006. Poor Thaksin doing simple, everyday stuff ala At Samat. Maybe eating at Thai restaurants, emotional stuff like that.

[Plus]

There is something of a personality cult that leaves a very significant power broker as a wild card.

In the long run this personality cult is unsustainable. First red wave was about standing up to bureaucratic polity - an agenda that has a very wide appeal. It ended in Songkran disaster. Second wave was about Thaksin's personal plight - the petition. It had a very anti-climactic ending. Next promised wave doesn't even have an agenda that people outside of red circle can understand.

The verdict day on Thaksin's frozen assets is approaching soon, too.

[Scott]

I would generally agree with you on this Plus, but I think we are dealing with a rather cunning individual. I think it is complicated by a whole host of factors. Thailand has been a land dominated by certain personalities. We are entering an era of uncharted territory because one of the most notable of them is becoming less visible. I am not trying to make a comparison between the two, because that would be both wrong and disrespectful, but I am referring to the psychology of people.

Perhaps your right. Time will tell.

[sabaijai]

Thaksin himself says he is worried about the rally, according to this report.

Thaksin voicing concern for safety at the red-shirt rally on Sunday

By The Nation

In his phone-in aired Wednesday's afternoon by Udon Thani community radio, ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra voiced concern for the safety of villagers travelling to the red-shirt rally scheduled for Sunday at the Royal Plaza.

Thaksin told radio host Kwanchai Praipana that he had already raised his concern with rally organiser Veera Musigapong.

Thaksin's remarks hinted at the objection to holding the rally because he said he was already grateful for the support shown via the pardon petition seeing additional action as unnecessary at this juncture.

-- The Nation 2009-08-26

[animatic]

Well if past history is any indicator,

these new, and less eloquent voices for the RedTak side, are suddenly popping up here,

in fresh numbers and guises.

When this has happened before, things ALSO happen on the street

in bigger ways than the calmer period preceding.

Not typically a good sign. And when touting a 'Second Coming of The Lord'

to make everything 'right again' this pagan pseudo-religiosity resurfaces,

and of course makes it seem more incitement driven.

So we see new deeply-reddened minds come to howl at us for the master.

What ELSE has been put in the works?

[animatic]

Thaksin himself says he is worried about the rally, according to this report.

Thaksin voicing concern for safety at the red-shirt rally on Sunday

By The Nation

In his phone-in aired Wednesday's afternoon by Udon Thani community radio, ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra voiced concern for the safety of villagers travelling to the red-shirt rally scheduled for Sunday at the Royal Plaza.

Thaksin told radio host Kwanchai Praipana that he had already raised his concern with rally organiser Veera Musigapong.

Thaksin's remarks hinted at the objection to holding the rally because he said he was already grateful for the support shown via the pardon petition seeing additional action as unnecessary at this juncture.

-- The Nation 2009-08-26

He has typically said similar things before hand,

when trying to make his side look victimized after

THEY start a problem, trying to make their opponent look bad.

The aim is likely:

street disruptions aimed at forcing the hand an making the Army kill red rioters,

and thus supposedly lose the confidence of the majority of Thai people....

And maybe even make it appear top to bottom culpability considering the latest move.

Despicable maneuvering only a proto-despot would attempt.

Prepositioning psychological warfare for the fun to come.

Hmmm, where are Potty, Oak and the girls shopping this week?

[Publicus]

Indeed, I don't believe a word or an action Thaksin does.

It sounds to me that Thaksin is trying to set up the army, which as we know is squarely against him, to look like the perps once his thug goon Red Shirts Sunday provoke violence. We know at this point in the chaos that Red Shirt violence anytime would then require the army under the provisions of the ISA to respond as the army must do to stop another riot intended to destroy the existing parliamentary government.

At this critical juncture it just isn't in the interest of Thailand to see the existing government go down, to fall or, more exactly, to be driven out of Government House.

The present developing machinations look to be another provokotive and obvious set up which is yet another of Thaksin's intermnible extra parliamentary actions against Thailand.

I reiterate that Thaksin is a man without a country and that such men are necessarily desperate fanatics, especially given that Thaksin is a former all powerful PM and a septobillionaire who's used to having his way at his every whim and pathology.

It's more than clear that Thaksin is never going to stop or quit. Given that the Reds are his internal domestic base, if they riot Sunday they need to be stopped immediately by incarceration or worse. If they riot Sunday, the Reds need to be taken out of circulation by one means or another.

Period, because it's come to that point already. To do less would be to seriously risk taking the profound jeopardy the internal stability of Thailand is suffering to an irreprable level.

Edited August 27, 2009 by Publicus

[Publicus]

Suan Dusit Poll: Majority backs ISA enforcement during UDD rally

BANGKOK, 26 August 2009 (NNT) - The majority of the respondents of the recent Suan Dusit Poll voiced their support on the government's decision to enforce the Internal Security Act to deal with a mass gathering of the United Front of Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) on 30 August.

The poll was conducted by Suan Dusit Rajabhat University among 1,078 people in Bangkok during 25 to 26 August on the Internal Security Act enforcement in Dusit district of the capital to maintain peace during the UDD's upcoming mass demonstration on 30 August.

The poll showed that the majority of the respondents or 76.39% backed the invocation of the security act while 14.58% said the government should not be overly concerned as violence during the rally was unlikely. A total of 9.03% reportedly opposed the Act's enforcement, citing that it could upset the rally-goers and intensify the political quagmire since it was their legal right to hold an assembly.

Positive news indeed. Actually, 76% of a population anywhere isn't simply a majority. It's an overwhelming mandate and endorsement by and from the people, in this particular instance, the population of Bangkok. Further, it's a clear directive to the government. The scientific survey of the population of Bankgok clearly states they are not only fed up with the Reds and Thaksin's scheming, but want to see the end of it NOW before it gets radically worse starting Sunday.

As the Reds are Thaksin's domestic base, it's clear that the people of Bangkok want to see them gone from the scene. Doing so by consitutional means would be the democratic way, to include incarceration. Truck 'em humanely to some place on the Thai Isthmus and put up a fence, feed 'em and leave 'em alone but under strict guard. Then deal with 'em in the courts.

Edited August 27, 2009 by Publicus

[Publicus]

Oops, I wanted to quote rather than reply to the public opinion research survey findings above. .