Red Shirts' Planned Rally Worries Pm

[jayboy]

76% against - that says a lot about red popularity.

I'm not sure it does really but it's reasonable enough to suppose that many Bangkok residents don't relish the prospect of more trouble on the streets.Still it's a fair observation in contrast with the hate filled ranting from Publius (I love his insistence on constitutional methods coupled with shipping Reds off to concentration camps.)

Anyway here's the reality check.Thailand is deeply split politically and the Reds have every right to make their case.The underlying causes of the split have yet to be addressed, and so the conflict will continue.

Thailand is continually made to seem more split than it is.

Divide and conquer is an age old strategy.

Reality check: what a great phrase to seem pontifical behind.

I speak for reality! : LISTEN!

Except reality is not always the same from all perspectives.

What is real is based on personal perceptions, not the imposed indoctrination by others.

When thos indoctrinations overcome or OWN observations, then that is mind control.

Most cultures inculcate some form of mind control.....

(Rest of rant snipped)

I'm sorry but I really don't understand what you are on about.If you could summarise any key points and perhaps reduce the length of your posts by say 90% I will do my best to respond.

[animatic]

76% against - that says a lot about red popularity.

I'm not sure it does really but it's reasonable enough to suppose that many Bangkok residents don't relish the prospect of more trouble on the streets.Still it's a fair observation in contrast with the hate filled ranting from Publius (I love his insistence on constitutional methods coupled with shipping Reds off to concentration camps.)

Anyway here's the reality check.Thailand is deeply split politically and the Reds have every right to make their case.The underlying causes of the split have yet to be addressed, and so the conflict will continue.

Thailand is continually made to seem more split than it is.

Divide and conquer is an age old strategy.

Reality check: what a great phrase to seem pontifical behind.

I speak for reality! : LISTEN!

Except reality is not always the same from all perspectives.

What is real is based on personal perceptions, not the imposed indoctrination by others.

When thos indoctrinations overcome or OWN observations, then that is mind control.

Most cultures inculcate some form of mind control.....

(Rest of rant snipped)

I'm sorry but I really don't understand what you are on about.If you could summarise any key points and perhaps reduce the length of your posts by say 90% I will do my best to respond.

Speaking as the font of reality, is really only you speaking of your views on assorted realities.

As filtered by your upbringing in one or several cultures of your life.

It's relevance to others is subjective.

[Old Man River]

Please, any foreigners who think attending the Red Shirt rallies will be exciting, stay away. This is not a time for fun and games.

[marshbags]

The decree seemed like an overreaction to me. It now appears that there is a lot of anxiety and tension over this rally, so maybe some group is up to something.

It could be interesting to see what happens.

The decree is not an over reaction and is soundly based on the renowned and cunning ability to cause the violence the reds have become infamous for.

Desperate times for the exiled fugitive and these repetative demonstrations are a potential time bomb.

They are becoming a real threat to ALL Thai society and rather than under value this obvious factor face the facts.

Instead of posters referring to what is now yesterdays news and making comparisons, it,s TODAY and NOW that is important and needs addressing and where the need be doing what is possible to PREVENT trouble as per the reds need for violence and trouble is the number one priority.

For the record here is a local fact.

You cannot even walk about in Udonthani with a yellow shirt on on Mondays as was respectfully done before, or mention opposition to the UDD otherwise it,s violence ect. ect. big time.

The hate is real not only up here but in many other provinces.

On my life, I have never seen the PAD supporters threatening the opposition in and around Udonthani.

When the UDD want a meeting no problem and the PAD leave them to it.

When the PAD want a meeting, well everyone knows the consequences here. Not a chance of even preparing for one.

Sadly this hate has spread / is spreading to T. Visa and many members are fed up of what is venomously being spouted off on every Thaksin related thread of late.

Is this really what our beloved forum is now coming to.

IMHO ALL Thaksin related stuff needs putting in a seperate section with a warning sign attached to it.

Hate not Debate when you enter.

marshbags

Edited August 27, 2009 by marshbags

[Scott]

Marshbags, I don't know why you quoted me. I am just posing a question. I am interested in learning about the situation, which appears to be quite complex, and isn't easy to understand.

I certainly have no hate and am only interested in debate.

[jayboy]

On my life, I have never seen the PAD supporters threatening the opposition in and around Udonthani.

When the UDD want a meeting no problem and the PAD leave them to it.

When the PAD want a meeting, well everyone knows the consequences here. Not a chance of even preparing for one.

marshbags

He's having a laugh presumably.Why would the PAD expect any support in a place like Udon Thani where its leadership and reactionary politics are hated.Do you think Isaan people aren't aware of the disgusting and racist language used about them at PAD rallies in Bangkok? It's just like Mosley's fascist Blackshirts provoking trouble in the East End.

Actually a neighbour of mine in Bangkok ( originally a PAD supporter!) told me recently she had to change her maid's uniform which quite innocently had a red shirt because of locals jeering and spitting at her when she went to the market.

Some of these foreign codgers whether sporting red or yellow need to have a hard think about the implications of what they're doing.

[Publicus]

76% against - that says a lot about red popularity.

I'm not sure it does really but it's reasonable enough to suppose that many Bangkok residents don't relish the prospect of more trouble on the streets.Still it's a fair observation in contrast with the hate filled ranting from Publius (I love his insistence on constitutional methods coupled with shipping Reds off to concentration camps.)

Anyway here's the reality check.Thailand is deeply split politically and the Reds have every right to make their case.The underlying causes of the split have yet to be addressed, and so the conflict will continue.

The underlying causes are more than underlying. They are deeply rooted or, perhaps more accurately, set in stone. Thaksin isn't going away and has his domestic base of Red Shirts. The government can't allow itself to be driven out of office. This is an endless and ever intensifying back and forth battle with no end in sight. There is yet only more to be seen than incremental escalation and I am concerned it's coming soon--very soon.

It does show the disengenuousness of the Reds that within two weeks of submitting their vaunted petition they demand a gathering planned well in advance of the submision intended to bring down the government. And the statements by so many Red leaders that they will gather despite the invoking of the ISA surpasses the disingenuous--it is open defiance, agressive and credibly belligerent in its tone and attitude.

Should riots erupt Sunday, an incarceration of any arrested Red rioters would overwhelm Bangkok prisons and Thai prisons in general. Rioting Reds would need to be placed distant from Bangkok under constitutional and humane conditions and treatment while tried under Thai due process of law as it may be. They could be tried in groups for their violent crimes rooted in their thug and goon behaviours.

Otherwise there's no end to this. As hs been pointed out, the Reds are the violent ones. PAD was screwy to seize control of the airport but they never attacked in force nor did they ever consider butsing up the facility. The contrast is between a peaceful mindset and its albeit illegal occupation (sit in as it was called during my time against the war in Vietnam) or violent street thugs who won't quit until they've busted up Thailand.

And in the name of democracy besides.

Edited August 27, 2009 by Publicus

[Old Man River]

76% against - that says a lot about red popularity.

I'm not sure it does really but it's reasonable enough to suppose that many Bangkok residents don't relish the prospect of more trouble on the streets.Still it's a fair observation in contrast with the hate filled ranting from Publius (I love his insistence on constitutional methods coupled with shipping Reds off to concentration camps.)

Anyway here's the reality check.Thailand is deeply split politically and the Reds have every right to make their case.The underlying causes of the split have yet to be addressed, and so the conflict will continue.

The underlying causes are more than underlying. They are deeply rooted or, perhaps more accurately, set in stone. Thaksin isn't going away and has his domestic base of Red Shirts. The government can't allow itself to be driven out of office. This is an endless and ever intensifying back and forth battle with no end in sight. There is yet only more to be seen than incremental escalation and I am concerned it's coming soon--very soon.

It does show the disengenuousness of the Reds that within two weeks of submitting their vaunted petition they demand a gathering planned well in advance of the submision intended to bring down the government. And the statements by so many Red leaders that they will gather despite the invoking of the ISA surpasses the disingenuous--it is open defiance, agressive and credibly belligerent in its tone and attitude.

Should riots erupt Sunday, an incarceration of any arrested Red rioters would overwhelm Bangkok prisons and Thai prisons in general. Rioting Reds would need to be placed distant from Bangkok under constitutional and humane conditions and treatment while tried under Thai due process of law as it may be. They could be tried in groups for their violent crimes rooted in their thug and goon behaviours.

Otherwise there's no end to this. As hs been pointed out, the Reds are the violent ones. PAD was screwy to seize control of the airport but they never attacked in force nor did they ever consider butsing up the facility. The contrast is between a peaceful mindset and its albeit illegal occupation (sit in as it was called during my time against the war in Vietnam) or violent street thugs who won't quit until they've busted up Thailand.

And in the name of democracy besides.

Well written.

Should there be violence by the Red Shirts (whether Jakropob's group or Jaturporn's group), I highly doubt there will be any due process of law taking place.

[animatic]

Why should early, pre-coup, on PAD or ANY OTHER speakers not expect to have a fair hearing up country?

They rightly 'should' have felt the right to speak publicly,

but it was violently denied, and not because of racist speech,

because of greed and despotic political aims.

These beatings came about regularly well before the rhetoric was upped.

The rhetoric was upped in response of the lack of rights to freely speak about Thailands future,

and the mindless attitudes that supported that.

It isn't just PAD not allowed to talk publicly to contrast TRT/PPP/PTP/DAAD/UDD,

but ANYONE talking another opinion. That is the basic Thaksin political MO.

These last to names are such glaring ironies it is almost an ecstasy of Orwelian NewsSpeak.

It's not the kettle calling the teapot black, it's the kettle denying it IS a kettle.

[animatic]

Should there be violence by the Red Shirts (whether Jakropob's group or Jaturporn's group), I highly doubt there will be any due process of law taking place.

There will be due process of law, but after the situation is brought TOTALLY under control.

The stability of the nation is at risk and can't be compromised further.

Like it's implementation or not.

Edited August 27, 2009 by animatic

[marshbags]

On my life, I have never seen the PAD supporters threatening the opposition in and around Udonthani.

When the UDD want a meeting no problem and the PAD leave them to it.

When the PAD want a meeting, well everyone knows the consequences here. Not a chance of even preparing for one.

marshbags

He's having a laugh presumably.Why would the PAD expect any support in a place like Udon Thani where its leadership and reactionary politics are hated.Do you think Isaan people aren't aware of the disgusting and racist language used about them at PAD rallies in Bangkok? It's just like Mosley's fascist Blackshirts provoking trouble in the East End.

Actually a neighbour of mine in Bangkok ( originally a PAD supporter!) told me recently she had to change her maid's uniform which quite innocently had a red shirt because of locals jeering and spitting at her when she went to the market.

Some of these foreign codgers whether sporting red or yellow need to have a hard think about the implications of what they're doing.

Presumably you could well be a troll with nothing more than an evil desire to cause as much mayhem and bitterness as you possibly can.

Now just to record some objectives and interests of an foreign codger who does know his place in Udonthani.

My wife and her family, along with several of her friends are staunch supporters of the king and the royal family.

They love their king and want to show their support for him with the now traditional wearing of the yellow shirt

They are ashamed of what the UDD have and are continuing to do not only in the local area, but nationally.

For UDD read " Paid " Robotic No Brainers of the criminal in exile.

As if I need to remind certain posters, there is a substantial list of questionable ( to say the least ) of abuse while in office offences awaitng his return.

The 2 year sentence he is trying to aviod by first of all leaving the country and then by means most foul via the UDD that he is orchestrating from his places in exile are what the present chaos and polarity Thai against Thai is all about and are his only objectives.

Not forgetting the billions that,s been put on hold for criminality investigations as possible proceeds of his wrongdoings.

Eventually hoping to just walk back in from his port of entry and take over the country and start an even greater vendetta against the authorities who have dared to oppose him and challenge his wrongdoings, within Thai society.

His support by my reckoning re his present situation is what 3, 4, 5 or even 6 million.

That hardly represents a licence and the approval of the majority of Thai voters who are by my estimates 30 million plus, to carry out his never ending, well paid for, third party actions and his distructive objectives.

There are also many, many younger citizens just under voting age who on the whole are well opposed to his actions if one wishes to include them in the scenario.

My rant is not that of a foreign codger with / should not have no interests in Thai matters.

I have a Thai family who wish to have a safe and meaningful future based on fair play, honesty and democracy.

They do not want to be dictated to by the likes of the UDD and their evil leader, nor do they wish to live in fear of being able to simply express their wishes and desires when it comes to who is best to oversee the running of the country.

I joined Thai Visa for civilised debate and the sharing of our knowledge and a diesire to possibly help with my imput, ( on and off the forum )

Seems to me the news thread of late is becoming a vicious outlet for certain posters who do not give a satang about fair comment and reply.

A lot of it IMHO is nothing less the trolling.

Even some contributors I consider debators of reason are being baited and sucked into it all.

They who are doing the baiting are intent on destroying our membership and putting one against another with the hope of causing as much mayhem as possible and don,t give a hoot one way or another what the outcome is.

Just like the UDD in fact.

The baiters will also have done / be doing similar things on other forums of a lesser quality and the hard worked for " renowned exellence " and fair play ours is quite rightly, known for.

Some will of course, already have been banned under previous ID,s form our forum.

Just like the UDD in fact re the mayhem

marshbags

Edited August 28, 2009 by marshbags

[jayboy]

My rant is not that of a foreign codger with / should not have no interests in Thai matters.

marshbags

This isn't about wearing yellow shirts, and it is a complete fallacy to believe that implies support of PAD anyway.It's also nothing to do with Thaksin

You simply ignore my comment the disgusting language used at PAD rallies in Bangkok about Isaan people.

Instead you rant on with ad hominem attacks.Passion and dedication are good qualities, but unless there is thought and focus they are meaningless.

[Plus]

You simply ignore my comment the disgusting language used at PAD rallies in Bangkok about Isaan people.

Was it before or after Udon Thani lovers club attacked peaceful PAD rally there last year?

How nice of you to justify Udon reds violence and hatred by referring to some disgusting language heard elsewhere. Also Coke with high sugrar content and other snacks must be held responsible, not the reds themselves.

Right after that incident Marshbag was defending Udon as a quiet place, he even mentioned that the violence was orchestrated by outsiders, I remember. It was in Isan forum.

Look how the mood has changed.

>>>

One thing that should be completely devoid of any ideology is allowing opposting groups freely express their opinions without violence or intimidation. People who want immediate elections should remember this first and foremost. Or maybe they think elections ala Zimbabwe are just fine. I'm fully support Abhisit condition here - unless reds allow ALL political parties and group campaign freely, there will be no use of holding elections.

AFAIK, Jayboy wants both - justified red intimidation and elections.

[jayboy]

You simply ignore my comment the disgusting language used at PAD rallies in Bangkok about Isaan people.

Was it before or after Udon Thani lovers club attacked peaceful PAD rally there last year?

How nice of you to justify Udon reds violence and hatred by referring to some disgusting language heard elsewhere. Also Coke with high sugrar content and other snacks must be held responsible, not the reds themselves.

Right after that incident Marshbag was defending Udon as a quiet place, he even mentioned that the violence was orchestrated by outsiders, I remember. It was in Isan forum.

Look how the mood has changed.

>>>

One thing that should be completely devoid of any ideology is allowing opposting groups freely express their opinions without violence or intimidation. People who want immediate elections should remember this first and foremost. Or maybe they think elections ala Zimbabwe are just fine. I'm fully support Abhisit condition here - unless reds allow ALL political parties and group campaign freely, there will be no use of holding elections.

AFAIK, Jayboy wants both - justified red intimidation and elections.

Have I made a fetish about elections? I don't believe so but they will need to be held in the next year or so.

Nor do I condone intimidation or violence from whatever source.However A PAD rally in a place like Udon Thani is as provocative as a Red rally in say Songkhla - remember these are pressure groups not legitimate political parties.

In the meantime I await at least a glimmer of recognition by Marshbanks of the disgusting and racist language used about Isaan people at PAD rallies in Bangkok.It might help him understand why PAD is hated by so many millions of Thais.

[mc2]

In the meantime I await at least a glimmer of recognition by Marshbanks of the disgusting and racist language used about Isaan people at PAD rallies in Bangkok.

i was not aware of this , (i don't doubt it happened and i most certainly believe it would have happened)

what were some of those things they said ?

[Plus]

Have I made a fetish about elections? I don't believe so but they will need to be held in the next year or so.

I thought you advocated snap elections ever since Dems formed the coalition.

Nor do I condone intimidation or violence from whatever source.However A PAD rally in a place like Udon Thani is as provocative as a Red rally in say Songkhla - remember these are pressure groups not legitimate political parties.

Believe it or not, but even Udon has a local PAD chapter, and so does Songkla. Have reds been attacked and beaten there? Has anyone been killed, like in Chiang Mai?

Bottom line - you can't have elections until reds develop tolerance.

[Plus]

In the meantime I await at least a glimmer of recognition by Marshbanks of the disgusting and racist language used about Isaan people at PAD rallies in Bangkok.

i was not aware of this , (i don't doubt it happened and i most certainly believe it would have happened)

what were some of those things they said ?

Well, you don't know what the said by Jayboy claims it's an excuse for Red's intolerance. How many of them actually heard it first hand? Or is it just a rumor spread specifically to incite hatred?

I bet no one here knows what exactly Jayboy is referring to. I don't.

>>>

Ah, forget it, it's all PAD's fault anyway.

[secondbase]

Well said.

I admire your dedication and passion, marshbags.

I also appreciate the honest thought and pinpoint focus you put into it.

[Wolfie]

Bottom line - you can't have elections until reds develop tolerance.

Bottom line - you can't have elections until All Sides develop tolerance

[Siripon]

The PAD have had rallies in many small towns in Issan and a lot of Issan shopkeepers watch ASTV, the reds have no monopoly on political thought there, their attack at Udon was plain thuggery.

I don't agree with several things Sonthi has said, ie the Chinese Thais save Thailand, but democracy gives him the right to say it. Now the PAD are trying to make inroads into Issan, a hard job but they have the right and Suriyasai is a Sisaket native.

[jayboy]

In the meantime I await at least a glimmer of recognition by Marshbanks of the disgusting and racist language used about Isaan people at PAD rallies in Bangkok.

i was not aware of this , (i don't doubt it happened and i most certainly believe it would have happened)

what were some of those things they said ?

Well, you don't know what the said by Jayboy claims it's an excuse for Red's intolerance. How many of them actually heard it first hand? Or is it just a rumor spread specifically to incite hatred?

I bet no one here knows what exactly Jayboy is referring to. I don't.

>>>

Ah, forget it, it's all PAD's fault anyway.

It's not all PAD's fault.

I think there's no serious dispute about the language used at PAD rallies, driven perhaps by Sondhi's talk of "Sons of China saving the Nation" and of course the ethnic background of many in the urban lower middle class.To be honest, and this is probably my fault in making too much of it in this thread, while recognising the ethnic/class divisions I tend not to attach huge importance to it.All countries have class/ethnic differences and most tend to rub along reasonably well.My point in mentioning it in the first place was simply to stress that most in the NE know exactly how they are viewed by many in the urban middle class and understandably don't much like it.To be fair one doesn't hear much of this now and I think credit must be given to Abhisit for raising the tone.

I'm also conscious of stereotyping dangers and again I'm well aware that my thumbnail sketch of PAD support is too crude -a result of the cut and thrust of debate and too little time.Equally the stereotyping of Reds as a violent proletarian mob is completely off mark.There's a useful update out of Pasuk/Baker's book on Thaksin which I'd recommend for an intelligent and more nuanced analysis.

Here's a quote which is striking (p362)

"Especially from 20008 onwards, the red camp began to attract growing numbers who were repelled by the coup,the resurgence of military power, the shrill voices of extreme royalism, the blatant violence of the PAD, the attack on the symbols and institutions of parliamentary democracy, and the challenges to the principles of popular sovereignty and universal franchise.Many of these red recruits had to overcome a deep distaste for Thaksin personally".

[animatic]

You simply ignore my comment the disgusting language used at PAD rallies in Bangkok about Isaan people.

Was it before or after Udon Thani lovers club attacked peaceful PAD rally there last year?

How nice of you to justify Udon reds violence and hatred by referring to some disgusting language heard elsewhere. Also Coke with high sugrar content and other snacks must be held responsible, not the reds themselves.

Right after that incident Marshbag was defending Udon as a quiet place, he even mentioned that the violence was orchestrated by outsiders, I remember. It was in Isan forum.

Look how the mood has changed.

>>>

One thing that should be completely devoid of any ideology is allowing opposting groups freely express their opinions without violence or intimidation. People who want immediate elections should remember this first and foremost. Or maybe they think elections ala Zimbabwe are just fine. I'm fully support Abhisit condition here - unless reds allow ALL political parties and group campaign freely, there will be no use of holding elections.

AFAIK, Jayboy wants both - justified red intimidation and elections.

Have I made a fetish about elections? I don't believe so but they will need to be held in the next year or so.

Nor do I condone intimidation or violence from whatever source.However A PAD rally in a place like Udon Thani is as provocative as a Red rally in say Songkhla - remember these are pressure groups not legitimate political parties.

In the meantime I await at least a glimmer of recognition by Marshbanks of the disgusting and racist language used about Isaan people at PAD rallies in Bangkok.It might help him understand why PAD is hated by so many millions of Thais.

The difference is Red rallies HAVE occured in the south

and typically no one got beaten up till they left. At times of super high tensions

some got shouted down, but rarely was there any violent actions.

They were barely welcome, but not run off either.

While ANY time there is a none Red dissenting speech Reds show to break it up before it happens.

I remember the two TRT later PPP candidates on Samui holding rallies.

Nothing happened. Several came to listen, and often laugh at them, but let them speak.

And THAT is the crux of the biscuit, they STILL got to speak.

Edited August 28, 2009 by animatic

[Plus]

Bottom line - you can't have elections until reds develop tolerance.

Bottom line - you can't have elections until All Sides develop tolerance

Useful addition.

In practice, however, TRT/PPP/PTP campaigns have hardly ever been obstructed anywhere. There was some incident in Songkla in the run up to 2006 elections, but was well short of many instances of red attacks on other rallies in the North and North East.

Another bottom line - it's not PAD who are going to created disturbances during elections.

PAD has a registered party now, reds will have to let them campaign as much as they want. Can they restrain themselves? If Marshbags account of the atmosphere in Udon is correct - they are not ready for elections yet.

>>>

Jayboy, that Pasuk/Baker book is seriously outdated when it comes to red camp development, which is normal for a book. After Songkran reds shed all pretence of being pro-democracy and focused on being Thaksin groupies instead. There are splits in leadership there but if there are any pro-democracy voices still left, the are completely drowned in celebration of Thaksin glorious personality. Various opportunists and hangers on from anit-coup to republicans who claimed that red movement was a real thing do not even squeak anymore. I'm afraid Nation's red mouth Prawit has been fired, or took extended leave, or just can't bring himself to reporting on pardon petition anymore.

[Publicus]

Thaksin should already have bought himself an island somewhere tropical. There he could have or import women were he interested. He could do his banking and investments from his own private island.

Thaksin could blow off the coup and look to the future but instead Thaksin has a compulsive obsession to save Thailand from his absence even if that means destroying it.

Yes his assets are frozen. If Thaksin were capable of inner peace and of rational and reasonable give and take, he likely could gain access to some or all of his assets and live the rest of his life in peace on his private island (or somesuch place), not to mention allow Thailand the peace and tranquility that could enable the resumption of its development.

But no.

No such luck. Thaksin is a hel_l bent menace to an entire nation and, after Pattaya, the SE Asia region too.

The man hasn't any inner peace whatsoever.

[Old Man River]

Should there be violence by the Red Shirts (whether Jakropob's group or Jaturporn's group), I highly doubt there will be any due process of law taking place.

There will be due process of law, but after the situation is brought TOTALLY under control.

The stability of the nation is at risk and can't be compromised further.

Like it's implementation or not.

Due Process needs to be seen as taking place. There is a difference.

[marshbags]

Bottom line - you can't have elections until reds develop tolerance.

Bottom line - you can't have elections until All Sides develop tolerance

Nothing personal Wolfie

I think it is better served in my humble opinion to quote Plus,s original one in full to appreciate the context in which he is referring to.

Taken from post 138

Quote

" Believe it or not, but even Udon has a local PAD chapter, and so does Songkla. Have reds been attacked and beaten there? Has anyone been killed, like in Chiang Mai?"

Bottom line - you can't have elections until reds develop tolerance.

Unquote

That,s better.

Let us not forget the latest Chiang Mai reds way of dealing with differing opinions was just a few days ago, as they always do, if they are allowed to do so, by certain law enforcement officers turning a blind eye ect. that is.

No further comment

marshbags

[sabaijai]

Here's hoping Thaksin is really tired himself

Published on August 28, 2009

Peaceful one moment, threats of belligerence the next; there seems no end in sight to the political quagmire

Knowing Thaksin Shinawatra, his Wednesday message to his supporters could mean anything. In that phone-in, aired on Udon Thani community radio, the ousted prime minister voiced concern over this Sunday's planned rally by the red shirts at the Royal Plaza in Bangkok. It will be the first major gathering of the pro-Thaksin movement since the petition submission ceremony on August 17, and Thaksin told the radio host that he had voiced his anxiety with rally organiser Veera Musigapong.

The first theory is that he is sincere. Having seen the petition submitted to royal authorities in a massive but solemn demonstration of support, Thaksin, whose international image took a battering when his red supporters ran amok in April, must not want another untoward incident. If the pardon-Thaksin petition campaign has somewhat compensated for the Songkran infamy, why spoil it so suddenly?

The second theory has Thaksin hedging against the possibility of Sunday's rally going wrong. He could not escape responsibility for the April turmoil, which put Thailand on the verge of bloodshed, because it happened after his belligerent speeches were broadcast live to his followers day in and day out. This time, he has somewhat distanced himself from the red shirts' new move and the "concern" he has voiced will be another shield of immunity. The most important underlying message from Wednesday's phone-in was: "It's Veera and company who are planning this, and I can't do anything except express my worries."

The third theory has to do with the government's plan to impose the Internal Security Act in the Dusit area. He is either genuinely worried for his supporters or is taking advantage of the situation by pointing international watchers toward Thailand. Harsh laws were never really enforced when pro-Thaksin governments were in power, although, it has to be said, a bloody crackdown did take place against the People's Alliance for Democracy in October last year. Protesters were killed and several maimed in that incident.

The fourth theory is based on reported rifts among key red-shirt members. Thaksin naturally will not want a political rally to take place against this backdrop. If he wanted to show the world how well-loved he is among a large portion of the Thai population, that objective must have been fulfilled both prior to and after Songkran. If the movement is not fully ready for another big push, why push it?

As for the red shirts, whether they are doing it for him or whether it's his secret command, Sunday's rally will fly in the face of the relatively peaceful petition campaign. After all, it's one thing to seek "compassion" for Thaksin and then go home, but it's another to beg for forgiveness and then take up arms again, less than two weeks later.

The red shirts can argue that protesting against a "bad" government and seeking royal clemency for their "good" leader are two separate things. That may be true but the line is very thin indeed. And things will get further complicated considering the fact that it's the "bad" government they are protesting against that will decide whether the petition should be forwarded to His Majesty the King.

In other words, the red shirts, after accusing the government of trying to politicise their "sincere" petition campaign, are not making it any easier for the administration by planning such a major rally so soon. Democratically, they have the right. But if they think they are helping Thaksin, their choice of strategy is surprising.

Having claimed that the government had distorted an honest petition campaign and made it look like an act of intimidation, the last thing the red shirts should do is really act like an intimidator at this stage.

And in the end, it's the general Thai public who will have to hold their breath again, after the great anxiety on Thaksin's birthday last month and the petition submission this month. A brief glance at the calendar and one can't be too optimistic even if Sunday passes without an incident. The high-level police reshuffle has not been settled, while that for the military is coming up. The first anniversaries of the bloody crackdown on the PAD and the Suvarnabhumi Airport are approaching. And the trial to determine what to do with Thaksin's impounded, staggering assets cannot be delayed forever.

It has become part of our lives now to keep one eye on the political scene and its every detail because we can never know who will step on the next landmine, and when. Getting nervous has become an endless burden for Thai citizens and the time to pray keeps coming back with common regularity. The most optimistic analysis of Thaksin's Wednesday statement has him concerned and tired like all of us. The most cynical tells us that if someone like him is concerned, we should be doubly alarmed.

-- The Nation 2009-08-28

[Thai at Heart]

In the meantime I await at least a glimmer of recognition by Marshbanks of the disgusting and racist language used about Isaan people at PAD rallies in Bangkok.

i was not aware of this , (i don't doubt it happened and i most certainly believe it would have happened)

what were some of those things they said ?

Indeed the language to be heard on ASTV was pretty extreme. I was astonished the first time I tuned in. It was racist and extremely disparaging about many parts of rural Thailand. That said, farangs came in for quite a bit of stick also.

I did find it rather strange to see largely long staying Chinese immigrants lecturing the crowds about nationalism.

[animatic]

Thaksin should already have bought himself an island somewhere tropical. There he could have or import women were he interested. He could do his banking and investments from his own private island.

Thaksin could blow off the coup and look to the future but instead Thaksin has a compulsive obsession to save Thailand from his absence even if that means destroying it.

Yes his assets are frozen. If Thaksin were capable of inner peace and of rational and reasonable give and take, he likely could gain access to some or all of his assets and live the rest of his life in peace on his private island (or somesuch place), not to mention allow Thailand the peace and tranquility that could enable the resumption of its development.

But no.

No such luck. Thaksin is a hel_l bent menace to an entire nation and, after Pattaya, the SE Asia region too.

The man hasn't any inner peace whatsoever.

Spot on,

like on a swiftly moving leopard.

[animatic]

Should there be violence by the Red Shirts (whether Jakropob's group or Jaturporn's group), I highly doubt there will be any due process of law taking place.

There will be due process of law, but after the situation is brought TOTALLY under control.

The stability of the nation is at risk and can't be compromised further.

Like it's implementation or not.

Due Process needs to be seen as taking place. There is a difference.

OMR my prefacing line says just that.

I am not talking months, but days.

There needs to be some secure method of ending the coming violence,

that will take time considering the numbers and amount of processing involved

once the streets are cleared, and once that is accomplished, courts will no doubt come into play.

Never once did I advocate the rescinding of due process.

The 'appearance' of it happening quickly will totally be a logistics and public safety driven issue.

Edited August 28, 2009 by animatic