Tourist Business Operators, Your Expectations For The Coming High Season?

[keestha]

The 2009 low season there were considerably less tourists around in Khao Lak than in the 2008 low season, so one would tend to think the high season will also be less good than the previous high season.

Checking the reservations for my resort now, I am seeing that it is about the same as last year, but this doesn't mean that much, because the majority of my guests comes unannounced, or they reserve just a few weeks or days before coming.

Europeans told me many people wait with booking a flight now, hoping to get attractively priced last minute deals.

Believe the TAT (Tourist Authority of Thailand) is not so pessimistic about the last quarter of 2009, and about 2010, but how realistic are their predictions?

[cmsally]

Wow, no one yet to reply on this, so maybe I'll bite first.

I certainly wouldn't rely on TAT, don't think they have a clue.

So as for numbers really anyone's guess.

Within your post lies one answer:

"hoping to get attractively priced last minute deals"

Your average or not so average tourist is certainly aware of the economic situation. The ones that come are looking for bargains.

If they find them they take them, you will have to provide an incentive for them to book. This in turn leads to word of mouth recommendation etc etc

[nightflight]

Europeans are complaining heavily about very high airfares for the season.

[mommysboy]

Europeans are complaining heavily about very high airfares for the season.

I'm not in the game, and would be interested to hear from those that are.

I suppose there's a lot to do in Thailand and many places to stay, but walking around my old haunts in Sukhumvit the other day I was staggered to note how empty the place was, and things looked even more run down. Perhaps it's a different story elsewhere.

On Thai Visa you hear stories of hotels at 10% occupancy!, but then read that tourism has dropped just 15%. So yes, this thread could tell us where the truth lies.

[JR Texas]

Europeans are complaining heavily about very high airfares for the season.

I'm not in the game, and would be interested to hear from those that are.

I suppose there's a lot to do in Thailand and many places to stay, but walking around my old haunts in Sukhumvit the other day I was staggered to note how empty the place was, and things looked even more run down. Perhaps it's a different story elsewhere.

On Thai Visa you hear stories of hotels at 10% occupancy!, but then read that tourism has dropped just 15%. So yes, this thread could tell us where the truth lies.

IMHO, you can't, as another poster put it, consider TAT or any govt. agency in Thailand as providing accurate information, unless it is to make them look good.

I think the best you can do is to talk with people who have been here a long time (at least 15-20 years) and who have some perspective on things.

My best guess is that the high season will be one of the worst on record. Why?

1) TAT has done nothing positive to attract tourists........and they still continue to use the term "quality tourist" which most Westerners find very offensive, and they continue to focus on high income tourists--the small minority--while other countries focus on low, middle and high income tourists.

They are also focusing on specific countries (e.g., India).......another mistake.......totally unnecessary because it is just as easy to focus on a global strategy.

Here is an idea for them: Develop a plan to attract tourists from all income categories and all countries.

2) Immigration has done nothing to make its xenophobic visa system attractive to both short stay and long stay tourists (yes, I know of the freebies......on balance, the system is broken and becoming more broken by the day)........and they continue to push expats out of the country (who now have nothing positive to say about the country).

3) The tourism industry has done nothing to attract tourists............in fact, they have raised prices, causing Thailand to become less attractive.

4) The global economy is still in bad shape because nothing has been done to address the fundamental problems, and that means less travel.......especially long travel across the Pacific (my guess is that a lot of Americans and Europeans will travel locally/regionally).

5) Malaysia, Indonesia (Bali), Cambodia, the Philippines and Vietnam are taking away tourists from Thailand.........they are becoming real alternatives to Thailand-Titanic. Thailand could learn something from them...........but that requires something that is lacking in Thailand.

Yes, there will be a high season.........but Thailand is old news now and unless some fundamental changes take place it will continue to fall behind.

I think, as an aside, there are three countries in the region that have tremendous tourism potential: Cambodia (especially Sihanoukville that is becoming like Pattaya 20 years ago), Myanmar/Burma (after all the generals are removed from power) and Vietnam.

[barrella]

I will throw a bit in

Since the GBP going to the toilet we have decided not to focus on our UK based income and have been focusing on our Thai one instead. It is based on tourism so my view of the present situation may be a little tainted due to a more heavy focus compared to the past on Thailand so growth maybe due to this, not tourism levels altering.

We are a customer facing business and have 4 outlets. All very different to each other and not connected staffing/visually or client wise

We are looking at a 30% growth year on year so far this year and we are forecasting an increase in traffic by at least another 30% for this high season. We are basing our numbers on confirmed customers (so far) + a bit of estimating. I have not been wrong so far but hey, no one is perfect. The numbers have been so good in the last 1.5 years we are expanding with a vengeance as I see this as being the best time.

A good friend of mine said to me, if business is down 30% in your industry that does not mean that you should be 30% down. There is still 70% out there and if you did not have 70% of the total business before you can either stay stable or grow this year, all it just takes is a bit more smarter harder work.

Due to the strength of the GBP/TB and our successes this year if the expansions happens on time and our forecasts are right this high season I will make more in Thailand GBP wise than I would have made in my UK business for the last 2 years.

We have no magic potion or formula we have just been working our selves to death and really focusing on CS/marketing/sales more than ever before.

Wishing everyone luck this high season.

[thaijasmine]

I wonder what will happen if conflict breaks out between Israel and Iran

which is looking ever more likely after Fridays news ? Oil supply will thrown

into chaos I am sure of that so travel may be also ?

[keestha]

Last high season there were less tourists around than the high season before that. In Khao Lak and Krabi 500/800 Baht guesthouses were full, whilst the more expensive hotels had very bad occupancy rates. This suggests that especially the package tourists stayed away, a trend which continued into the present low season.

[mommysboy]

Last high season there were less tourists around than the high season before that. In Khao Lak and Krabi 500/800 Baht guesthouses were full, whilst the more expensive hotels had very bad occupancy rates. This suggests that especially the package tourists stayed away, a trend which continued into the present low season.

How long do you think most hoteliers could last out?

One thing I've noticed in Bangkok is room rates and menu prices going up quite markedly. I guess then people sit down see what money is needed, estimate numbers coming in and figure out a way of securing the revenue. As a restaurant customer it's a bit disconcerting to be paying for the empty chairs by your side!