Do All Roads Really Lead To Newin?

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BETWEEN THE LINES

Do all roads really lead to Newin?

Published on September 30, 2009

The turmoil within the government is bringing the ruling Democrat Party closer to a dead end, especially now that its coalition partners have successfully won their political "necessities."

They have managed to appoint officials they support and have been given the budgets they want under the Thai KhemKhaeng (Invest for Strength) project.

Now that they have successfully accumulated the power and funds, they probably see this as a perfect time to jump ship, which is probably why they have started talking about the need for a new election.

"If the current government turmoil leads to a political deadlock, we think that calling a new election would be a better way out. It would be like pressing the reset button to restart politics, which should make the situation more or less better," the key leader of a coalition party said.

Whether it is a coincidence or not, but their opinion seems to match that of ousted former PM Thaksin Shinawatra, who has been doing everything he can to get a new election called so he can stage a comeback.

However, before the new election is called, all coalition partners want the 2007 Constitution to be amended. Their most desperate need is to change two things: the electoral system and a requirement for international agreement in order to avoid spending too much time amending more issues or even rewriting the entire charter.

Still, the coalition partners' needs seem to clash with those of the ruling party, the Democrats seem to the least prepared for a new election. This is why they are trying so hard to buy time by pushing for six charter changes as proposed by the parliamentary committee as well as a public referendum once the changes have been drafted. The whole process could take about nine months to complete.

In addition, the Democrats seem to have conflicts within the party, especially in financial terms because they cannot compete with well-heeled Thaksin's Pheu Thai Party.

While the Democrats lack the readiness, Newin Chidchob's Bhum Jai Thai Party appears to be getting stronger. After the Buri Rum politician survived the rubber-sapling case, his influence seems to only have been boosted, and this is despite the fact that he is a banned politician. Apparently, all roads lead to Newin, whose 32-MP party has gradually accumulated all its political "necessities" and has become stronger.

Even the ruling party is hesitant about being harsh with Bhum Jai Thai. Yesterday the Cabinet approved the leasing of 4,000 NGV buses for Bt66 billion. The project, proposed by the Bhum Jai Thai, had been delayed for months following criticisms that it was too expensive.

Moreover, many MPs from other parties reportedly choose to join Newin, who is also the core of a so-called blue group, a new faction backed by the military that is emerging to compete with the existing yellow and red shirts.

Newin aims to build his new political power by demolishing his former boss Thaksin's path to the top post. In order to reach his ultimate goal sooner rather than later, it would come as no surprise if he and his party turn out to be the key people pushing for a new election.

Maybe his 51st birthday celebrations on Sunday will show us if all roads really lead to this Buri Ram politician.

piyanart(at)nationgroup.com

-- The Nation 2009/09/30

[brahmburgers]

I don't know much about Newin, but from the little I've heard, the guy spooks me.

Like a typical Thai politician, he appears to have no policy statements of merit - certainly none that offer benefits for the environment.

He appears to be all power broker, and has little if any character traits relating to compassion or egalitarianism.

Hopefully he can prove me wrong someday, but he currently gives the appearance of a cold hearted manipulator. Of course, it doesn't matter much for me personally, but for the Thai people to get stuck with another exceedingly selfish mafia type at the helm, is a sad outlook.

Edited September 30, 2009 by brahmburgers

[geriatrickid]

Do all roads really lead to Newin?

You mean sort of like a dead end or cul de sac?

The road is probably filled with dangerous potholes, so let's hope not.

Any chance they can make Newin ambassador to Georrgia or Iraq?

[hammered]

Sounds more like brinkmanship right now probably over further appointments coming up involving governors and the like. If the funds for the bus project and a host of others have just been given to you, why would you want an election before you could spend them? If another party got in they would be taken away an deven worse a whole slew of poltically aimed corruption charges thrown around just as all the nice bureacratic poltical choices got undone.

There could be other reasons for a change of government right now as Abhisit may not be the one the military really want in charge in changing times.

Why all of a sudden is Newin going to sweep the Isaan and North when he lost the Si-Saket by election not that long ago? OK so we hear reports that in recent by-elections his team took 90% of the Isaan local councils but will that really transform into 100 Isaan seats at the next general election? For that he will likely need a whole swathe of the PTP feudal master MPs of the Isaan to come on board. The article does hint that he may attract politicians, but enough? Some even speculate on the currently hapless Yuth "dooyen" flipping to him but it remains speculation.

For a rise of Newin he also needs the fall of Thaksin and Abhisit. Right now Abhisit is being gradually eroded and Thaksin is stuck abroad. Will Newin want to be PM at some point? Surely a wily poltical operator having seen what happened to both Thaksin and Abhisit may choose to sit in the background and just be responsible for the rise of A.N.Other while of course making sure not to make the Snoh mistake of parachuting Thaksin into position only to find your base and power were usurped leaving a shadow of what once was a poltical power person.

[animatic]

Brinksmanship, and reporters looking for SOMETHING to write...

I suspect tha army is indulging in good old fashioned triangulation,

3 parties vying for the same pieces of the pie, keeps all three lower in level and power.

After the Thaksin TRT debacle letting any faction get too big might likely seem a bad idea.

[hammered]

Brinksmanship, and reporters looking for SOMETHING to write...

Yes the quality of reporting is low. But it is better than the posting of blog links on here now which is becomiing more and more common and just leads usually anonymous and poor commentary although maybe attracting the writer of the blog numerous hits

[Plus]

Last year Anupong thought that Newin can replace Thaksin in Isan and he was not a threat to the country.

Now a year has passed, Anupong might no be so sure of Newin's success anymore and the whole "blue" idea, but there's little he can do now.

Newin, on the other hand is not going to reduce his appetite, to him it doesn't matter if he becomes as big as PPP or just big enough to be a deciding force in forming a coalition. The second scenario gives him more ministerial posts and so he'd rather sit on the fence, creating troubles with Democrats from time to time, so they are not sure he'd stay with them after the elections, and PPP still have hope of attracting him on their side.

Hopefully Abhisit doesn't bite and won't protest if Newin teams up with PPP - that's the kind of incompetent government that will destroy itself in no time, and Democrats will be looking better and better.

One thing Newin still doesn't get - he has to have a good image and he has to deliver on national scale, he doesn't get that relying on old, feudal system is not going to win him public trust and it has no long term future.

[Chunkton]

Belive Newin's consortium just picked up the SIXTY FOUR BILLION BAHT "On the Busses" deal for leasing LNG buses to Bangkok, well this is good news and what a surprise.

Still a mystery to me why he dumped Taksin and supported the Democrats, maybe wiser heads could come up with a reason.

[brahmburgers]

So far in this thread of 10 posts including the OP, we haven't heard of any policy stands for Newin. All we've heard about, as far as legislation, is the belated approval of a vastly overpriced, and under-thought-out scheme for Bkk buses.

Does the man have any policies that he's advocating, other than pure power political posturing? Is he proposing any plans to lessen pollution, to aid debt-ridden farmers, to bring hundreds of thousands of disenfranchised Thai hill tribers in to soceity?

What does he stand for? ....only political power manipulation? That's a pukey platform.

[Plus]

He doesn't stand for anything and he fills the cabinet with incompetents. But he only needs 30-50 locally elected MPs to get into the government and bargain for ministerial positions.

Bus leasing scheme was approved by NESDB, btw. The cost is justified, and they even gave several warnings that might see budget overrun.

[animatic]

~They cut the cost back 34 billion too it seems,

so not near as bad as before, hopefully the watch dogs

will have eyes this time around.

Edited September 30, 2009 by animatic

[slimdog]

~They cut the cost back 34 billion too it seems,

so not near as bad as before, hopefully the watch dogs

will have eyes this time around.

The original proposal was for 6000 NGV buses. This proposal was rejected by the Samak Sundaravej government in July of last year. A screening commitee set up in August last year made the recommendation that the number of buses should be reduced to 4000 with a price tag of 69 billion baht. In June of this year The Transport Minister, Sophon Saram, reduced the amount to 64 Billion baht for the 4000 buses.

Following disagreements with the current cabinet, the issue was once again handed over to the National Economic and Social Development Board to decide on whether to lease or lease-purchase the buses.

The cabinet earlier this week gave consent for the leasing of 4000 NGV buses at 64 billion baht, exactly as proposed earlier this year.

[jasreeve17]

Lots of wild speculation above, so it was nice to see some facts written by the previous poster - slimdog.

I've spoken at length to Thai work colleagues who (red, yellow and neither) all have zero regard for Newin. Indeed, he seems to of been a joke character in MrT's time, riding together on bikes, etc... They all find it depressing that he has managed to wheedle his way to the top with support from the army and Dems; yet more disgrace on their part...

Time for me to speculate: Newin's a pure power politician, with a massive ego; wouldn't want to be PM??? Are you sure??? He would quite possibly be, and this is tough to say, worse than Samak. Basically the army got what the wanted; all their power back with zero regard for what politician rules the place, or how corrupt he is, as long as the army are above (and in control of) the law...

If, in the near future, Newin is PM then this would have been years of lies by the army and their ilk for the worst possible outcome for the nation. Nothing new there then... Finally the PAD and reds might join together to get rid of the army, who have always been the biggest evil, but at what cost?

These types of politicians and powerbrokers are pure scumbags.

[Plus]

It's not like Newin didn't have a say in Samak or Thaksin's governement.

In fact PPP downfall started with Newin pushing for Samak's second coming and not getting his way. That push was awful, but it was also a chance for Suthep to talk to Newin about alternatives.

The man with 32 MPs brought down mighty PPP. In political games he is not be underestimated, and he is not a Democrat creation. The friends of yours should actually thank the Democrats for reminding the public how creepy that character is, and for bringing all his shenanigans to the public spotlight - it's not like he just started misbehaving, the other guys simply covered for him.

But if it's an open season on Democrats, who can stop you? By all means, indulge yourself, and then elect someone like Thaksin or Chalerm for an alternative.

[jasreeve17]

I'm not out to get the Dems, Plus. Indeed I thought that Abhisit was likely the best politician around three or four years ago. Of course, that was before he started making deals with the army who are the least democratic of the lot and the worst possible answer to Thailand's problems.

I just find it ironic that they kicked out MrT in the name of democracy (ha ha what a bad joke that the army coups are in the name of democracy...), only to promote a man who is equally as corrupt, but a bigger power broker who has zero regard for the electorate. MrT did some good for the nation ( the middle class grew and the poor saw real benefits for themselves), so does Abhisit (he, at least speaks, in a democratic fashion), but the likes of Samak and Newin bring nothing other than old school stealing and corruption.

Also Plus, the man with 32 MP's did not bring down the 'mighty' PPP. An illegal coup (is there any other way), marshal law, Dems making under the table deals with the army, army supplied judges, a violent political pressure group supported by the army and then finally an illegal deal made by the illegal coupmakers (and Dems) with a banned power broker!!! that's what finally, and totally illegally, immorally and undemoractically brought Abhisit to power.

Now, if Abhisit had a free reign to shine his 'bright torch of democracy' for the benefit of the Thai people then perhaps all the evil dealings might (not in my book, but might...) have been worthwhile. The problem is that evil begets evil and there's no 'bright torch of democracy' in Abhisit's hand. Indeed, if he slipped one out of his briefcase then his army mates would hoof him out in double quick time, replacing him with; your friend and mine; savoiur of the Thai people: Khun Newin.

& what a rollercoaster of a ride we've had to go from Khun Thaksin to Khun Newin. Yeah, thanks for that; army PAD and Dems...

Edited October 1, 2009 by jasreeve17

[Abrak]

I remember The Nation had an editorial which said something like this 'If you put a gun to my head and asked me to choose between Chalerm and Newin for PM, my answer would simply be 'Go ahead and pull the trigger!''

[Publicus]

It could seem Thailand presently doesn't have a PM and that we're all in the midst of discussions and negotiations to select a new PM within a matter of days, if not hours.

Consequently the gloom and doom is more than visible.

Which would be understandable if Thailand had in fact gone from a PM Thaksin to an imminent selection of a PM Chalerm or a PM Newin. There aren't many indications that either Chalerm or Newin are shortly to ascend, howevever.

Abhisit is stronger--or less weak--after his impressive visit to global events in the US so the guy back home is trying to capitalize on his improved position. The army knows Abhisit has improved his image abroad (even if there's little or no substance to it, at least as of yet). The US has enuff clout with the Thai military to prevent it going completely over the top with either Chalerm or Newin...How would the US look if it were to fail to excerise its considerable clout in this respect (especially with new developments occurring in Burma)?

Abhisit might yet be around for a bit longer. As from the outset Abhisit has been viewed as a self dissolving stitch, it should seem time would be his friend.

[Thai at Heart]

It could seem Thailand presently doesn't have a PM and that we're all in the midst of discussions and negotiations to select a new PM within a matter of days, if not hours.

Consequently the gloom and doom is more than visible.

Which would be understandable if Thailand had in fact gone from a PM Thaksin to an imminent selection of a PM Chalerm or a PM Newin. There aren't many indications that either Chalerm or Newin are shortly to ascend, howevever.

Abhisit is stronger--or less weak--after his impressive visit to global events in the US so the guy back home is trying to capitalize on his improved position. The army knows Abhisit has improved his image abroad (even if there's little or no substance to it, at least as of yet). The US has enuff clout with the Thai military to prevent it going completely over the top with either Chalerm or Newin...How would the US look if it were to fail to excerise its considerable clout in this respect (especially with new developments occurring in Burma)?

Abhisit might yet be around for a bit longer. As from the outset Abhisit has been viewed as a self dissolving stitch, it should seem time would be his friend.

On the basis that the army basically shoe horned him into bed with Newin, Abhisit will be around as long as it serves one or other for him to be there. This could be a marriage made in hel_l, so to say, that goes on for a long time.

Whether Newin would toe the line should the army tell him to sit put and keep Abhisit in is another issue. It would be extremely interesting to see the army's reaction should Newin switch to another coalition after an election and push the Dems out of the PM seat. Newin is old (new) school. He knows there is no money to be made sitting in opposition. It would probably depend who made him the biggest promise.

[Publicus]

It could seem Thailand presently doesn't have a PM and that we're all in the midst of discussions and negotiations to select a new PM within a matter of days, if not hours.

Consequently the gloom and doom is more than visible.

Which would be understandable if Thailand had in fact gone from a PM Thaksin to an imminent selection of a PM Chalerm or a PM Newin. There aren't many indications that either Chalerm or Newin are shortly to ascend, howevever.

Abhisit is stronger--or less weak--after his impressive visit to global events in the US so the guy back home is trying to capitalize on his improved position. The army knows Abhisit has improved his image abroad (even if there's little or no substance to it, at least as of yet). The US has enuff clout with the Thai military to prevent it going completely over the top with either Chalerm or Newin...How would the US look if it were to fail to excerise its considerable clout in this respect (especially with new developments occurring in Burma)?

Abhisit might yet be around for a bit longer. As from the outset Abhisit has been viewed as a self dissolving stitch, it should seem time would be his friend.

On the basis that the army basically shoe horned him into bed with Newin, Abhisit will be around as long as it serves one or other for him to be there. This could be a marriage made in hel_l, so to say, that goes on for a long time.

Whether Newin would toe the line should the army tell him to sit put and keep Abhisit in is another issue. It would be extremely interesting to see the army's reaction should Newin switch to another coalition after an election and push the Dems out of the PM seat. Newin is old (new) school. He knows there is no money to be made sitting in opposition. It would probably depend who made him the biggest promise.

The army knew Abhisit would be going to the US for the global summits and that he would impress leaders of foreign governments and investors alike; that all of both would shake their heads in frustration that Thailand could produce such a bright kid but no actual stability or direction, and that Moody's would continue to rate Thailand poorly for the forseeable future.

The significant point is that the army would look like the generals of Burma should it install--or allow to be installed--either Charlerm or Newin. The army would need a dam_n good successor to Abhisit if it were to quit on the guy and it goes without saying (so I'll say it anyway!) that neither Chalerm nor Newin even remotely fit the position description.

Abhisit will have enuff time to show whether he can deliver a political swift kick to the front side of opponents and to ram his foot onto their throat, which is what the army needs to see from any such pretty boy. Abhisit is showing signs of moving in that direction but he needs to coldcock somebody now and begin to take it from there.

Anyway, it's a great thought that the yellows and reds and all colors should join in common cause to kick the army out of Thailand, however, all roads continue to lead to whomever at a given moment stands as the strongman of the army--or perhaps higher upstairs..

[jasreeve17]

I don't believe that the generals care what America thinks. &, I don't believe that the Americans have much sway here either.

We've seen over the last four decades how much S.E.Asians care about America.

The Americans have no choice but to support any regime here, just to stop the Chinese (and any other group the US hates at any given time - muslims for now) from building a stronger (and anti-American) base. The generals are fully aware of this and will merrily take all American aid / help / support whilst doing exactly as they please...

[Publicus]

I don't believe that the generals care what America thinks. &, I don't believe that the Americans have much sway here either.

We've seen over the last four decades how much S.E.Asians care about America.

The Americans have no choice but to support any regime here, just to stop the Chinese (and any other group the US hates at any given time - muslims for now) from building a stronger (and anti-American) base. The generals are fully aware of this and will merrily take all American aid / help / support whilst doing exactly as they please...

Past and present the United States does play a role here (but I dunno of some monolithic place called 'America' any more than I know of some monolithic people called 'muslims'). In the aftermath of WWII for instance the US, which had declared Thailand to have been an ally, blocked the UK from trying to make Thailand into a colony after the Brits had declared Thailand to have been an enemy.

I think some people don't care what the US thinks if in fact they know what the US thinks.

I further think PRChina cares about what happens in Thailand and is concerned the Sino-Thai Thaksin and his followers are the victims of a bum rap; that the PRC would be prepared actively to support a particular side in any extreme conflict that may erupt in LOS. And I know the US is deeply involved in Thailand both past and present, not to mention analyzing Thailand's future. It's also hard to imagine many Thais would welcome becoming the PRThailand much less welcome a Chairman Thaksin.

Regardless, the bottom line for Thailand is that wherever all roads may lead they are controlled by the army, which isn't particularly fond of the PRC either not to mention having a PRT.

Edited October 1, 2009 by Publicus

[Plus]

First serous talk with Newin was by Suthep, not by the army. Don't forget that after the coup Newin was one of the very few people detained, and he was stripped naked and searched, they had no love for him then.

It's much more likely that the switch was orchestrated by Suthep, and the army saw the chance of outmaneuvering PPP politically and jumped on it.

Back in Thaksin's days Newin was given a free reign, now he is facing Abhisit resistance at every turn. Dems DO keep him in check.

After Thaksin tried the revolution the army probably doesn't care about his stolen billions, he's far more dangerous to the country than a thief, so Newin+Abhisit is clearly the lesser of all evils. It would be nice if everyone voted for Abhisit, but they don't, so, if people get the governments they deserve - Abhisit+Newin is just about it, or even better.

Also, don't overestimate army's ability to meddle in politics. Last year PPP just laughed in Anupong's face after the "TV coup". If generals want something, they should do it like all other politicians - by making deals, not by force. The only way the military can override Abhisit is if they cobble up some other alliance, but their options are limited it's either Dems or PPP, so they sit quiet - they played their hand already.

[jayboy]

In the aftermath of WWII for instance the US, which had declared Thailand to have been an ally, blocked the UK from trying to make Thailand into a colony after the Brits had declared Thailand to have been an enemy.

The policy described (The US taking Siam's side in the post war settlement in contrast to the British demands for financial retribution) is more or less correct but the facts are muddled.

1.The US never declared Siam to have been an ally.

2.The Brits at that time under a Labour government were in full retreat from Empire and had no wish to make Thailand a colony.There was some talk of a protectorate essentially to see that reparations were enforced.

3.The key Brit bone of contention was reparations and it was here that the US took a completely different view, and of course got their way.

[Publicus]

It's true, the army would be hard pressed to justify another coup whether presently or forseeably. Another coup anytime in the next several years would really wreck Thailand for everyone. The situation would have to be hopeless to begin with for the army to stage another coup. I suppose we'd probably know hopeless when we get to it altho it could seem we've been there a few times already.

Meantime the elites remain off limits so we shouldn't expect anyone prominent to disappear after his car gets run off the road, altho Sonthi stands out as a desperate exception by the "dark forces" which recently aren't always entirely residing in Thailand itself.

As to the immediate aftermath of WWII, we see in it a good illustration of the ongoing relationship the US Government has with the Kingdom. The US circa WWII had few interests to defend in SE Asia and thus little for which to seek compensation. In the unsuccessful defense by the UK of its colonies of Malaya and Singapore, British commanders decided not to invade neutral Thailand to head off a Japanses army marching against the Brits. The Japanese attacked Malay and Singapore thru Thailand anyway, while Thailand surrendered to Japan within 24 hours after Japan landed troops near Songkhla so Japan could easier attack and seize the Malay and Singapore colonies, so of course the Brits felt aggrieved (about this and more).

The Seri Thai resistance had offices in Washington and London but always got more recognition and cooperation from Washington, a cooperation extended from the conclusion of the war and enhanced since. There's a Joint United States-Thailand Military Command in Bangkok which means command authority of the Thai military is shared to certain extents, and the US and Thailand annually conduct military manouvers in Thailand in which other countries participate while others send invited observers (not included are the PRC or Taiwan).