Could The Dollar Be In A New Bull Market?

[Naam]

The notion that anyone is incapable of forecasting a market/security beyond a time frame of a couple of weeks or even a few days, seems a bizarre suggestion for people who(presumably) make judgements on investments over days/weeks/months?

Although

Actually the most detailed recent research shows us that there's a higher probability of making accurate forecasts over longer rather than shorter terms

This is what separates traders from investors - investors exploit fundamental themes which pay off over the longer term in a non-linear fashion; the best traders (IMHO) tend to react fastest to what the market's telling them and to extra-market events but because it's all on the hoof, risk management and strategy tend to be very ad-hoc

of course! because "in the long run" a broken clock shows more often the correct time than "in the short run"

[Gambles]

The notion that anyone is incapable of forecasting a market/security beyond a time frame of a couple of weeks or even a few days, seems a bizarre suggestion for people who(presumably) make judgements on investments over days/weeks/months?

Although

Actually the most detailed recent research shows us that there's a higher probability of making accurate forecasts over longer rather than shorter terms

This is what separates traders from investors - investors exploit fundamental themes which pay off over the longer term in a non-linear fashion; the best traders (IMHO) tend to react fastest to what the market's telling them and to extra-market events but because it's all on the hoof, risk management and strategy tend to be very ad-hoc

of course! because "in the long run" a broken clock shows more often the correct time than "in the short run"

Yes, but there might be a bit more to it than just that...

[lannarebirth]

The notion that anyone is incapable of forecasting a market/security beyond a time frame of a couple of weeks or even a few days, seems a bizarre suggestion for people who(presumably) make judgements on investments over days/weeks/months?

Although

Actually the most detailed recent research shows us that there's a higher probability of making accurate forecasts over longer rather than shorter terms

This is what separates traders from investors - investors exploit fundamental themes which pay off over the longer term in a non-linear fashion; the best traders (IMHO) tend to react fastest to what the market's telling them and to extra-market events but because it's all on the hoof, risk management and strategy tend to be very ad-hoc

of course! because "in the long run" a broken clock shows more often the correct time than "in the short run"

Yes, but there might be a bit more to it than just that...

poulation growth, demographic change, INFLATION.

[lannarebirth]

[flying]

Does it suggest a *possible* range of 90-117 for the Euro?

Edited May 5, 2010 by flying

[Gambles]

Actually the most detailed recent research shows us that there's a higher probability of making accurate forecasts over longer rather than shorter terms

This is what separates traders from investors - investors exploit fundamental themes which pay off over the longer term in a non-linear fashion; the best traders (IMHO) tend to react fastest to what the market's telling them and to extra-market events but because it's all on the hoof, risk management and strategy tend to be very ad-hoc

of course! because "in the long run" a broken clock shows more often the correct time than "in the short run"

Yes, but there might be a bit more to it than just that...

poulation growth, demographic change, INFLATION.

Yes,

that kind of thing plus debt levels, surpluses, deficits, structural capital flows etc etc

[Naam]

Yes, that kind of thing plus debt levels, surpluses, deficits, structural capital flows etc etc

and voodoo, don't forget voodoo! there's nothing like an overlay of chicken entrails on top of structural capital flows and its evaluation in context with the 23rd Elliott tsunami with strong consideration of linear Fibonacci coefficients when the moon is in the seventh house

[badge]

Yes, that kind of thing plus debt levels, surpluses, deficits, structural capital flows etc etc

and voodoo, don't forget voodoo! there's nothing like an overlay of chicken entrails on top of structural capital flows and its evaluation in context with the 23rd Elliott tsunami with strong consideration of linear Fibonacci coefficients when the moon is in the seventh house

Is this the Parvis or Alex Lah method?

[badge]

Actually the most detailed recent research shows us that there's a higher probability of making accurate forecasts over longer rather than shorter terms

This is what separates traders from investors - investors exploit fundamental themes which pay off over the longer term in a non-linear fashion; the best traders (IMHO) tend to react fastest to what the market's telling them and to extra-market events but because it's all on the hoof, risk management and strategy tend to be very ad-hoc

of course! because "in the long run" a broken clock shows more often the correct time than "in the short run"

Yes, but there might be a bit more to it than just that...

poulation growth, demographic change, INFLATION.

No offence intended Gambles, but thats exactly the kind of research one would expect someone who works in retail finance to provide.

I note you didnt suggest that "poulation growth, demographic change, INFLATION" would only aid longer term forecasts that were based on accumulating things, and that these changes might not aid a longer term forecast that was bearish, towards equities for example? Or Gold?

[Gambles]

Actually the most detailed recent research shows us that there's a higher probability of making accurate forecasts over longer rather than shorter terms

This is what separates traders from investors - investors exploit fundamental themes which pay off over the longer term in a non-linear fashion; the best traders (IMHO) tend to react fastest to what the market's telling them and to extra-market events but because it's all on the hoof, risk management and strategy tend to be very ad-hoc

[of course! because "in the long run" a broken clock shows more often the correct time than "in the short run"

Yes, but there might be a bit more to it than just that...

poulation growth, demographic change, INFLATION.

No offence intended Gambles, but thats exactly the kind of research one would expect someone who works in retail finance to provide.

I note you didnt suggest that "poulation growth, demographic change, INFLATION" would only aid longer term forecasts that were based on accumulating things, and that these changes might not aid a longer term forecast that was bearish, towards equities for example? Or Gold?

None taken - it's a fair call, Badge - we have a strong view on how the Asian demographic trends highlighted by Scott will impact currencies and gold but and I'm not ducking anything, that's hard to condense here - e..g the impact on the Rupee and the Yuan of becoming greater consumption economies is essentially relatively negative but the key is the domestic versus imported supply - do you expect (and at what relative rate) the rate of growth of Chinese imports to tail off (that's actually a more dynamic number than Chinese exports right now) ?

whereas USA's increasingly retired population obviously has consumption demands but productivity constraints

This is a very lengthy and (to me) extremely interesting discussion but very hard (for my little brain at any rate) to reduce to blogbites or forumposts

Edited May 6, 2010 by Gambles

[lannarebirth]

Does it suggest a *possible* range of 90-117 for the Euro?

It suggests possible support at the trendline, for a bounce at least. Have to see the weekly close, but support doesn't appear to be holding.

Edited May 7, 2010 by lannarebirth

[flying]

It suggests possible support at the trendline, for a bounce at least. Have to see the weekly close, but support doesn't appear to be holding.

Thanks I see that now....

How about the other two trend lines lowest on the graph?

I can see the lowest purple line is showing old ascending lows extended out...Is the next blue descending line up showing old descending highs extended?

Why are they there?

Thanks

[lannarebirth]

It suggests possible support at the trendline, for a bounce at least. Have to see the weekly close, but support doesn't appear to be holding.

Thanks I see that now....

How about the other two trend lines lowest on the graph?

I can see the lowest purple line is showing old ascending lows extended out...Is the next blue descending line up showing old descending highs extended?

Why are they there?

Thanks

Yes, correct, context.

[hawthorne]

Churchill good call. I think the dollar looks like the best safe heaven out there as things shake out. I know there was talk about taking the oil off the dollar and putting it on the Euro. Thank god that did not happen. Now where is the Euro heading? dollar looking better all the time.

[Gambles]

Churchill good call. I think the dollar looks like the best safe heaven out there as things shake out. I know there was talk about taking the oil off the dollar and putting it on the Euro. Thank god that did not happen. Now where is the Euro heading? dollar looking better all the time.

Clear winner of the least ugly in the ugly contest

[flying]

Clear winner of the least ugly in the ugly contest

Funny too.. because it I wonder if actually it is the ugliest..... I know it is perceived as the least ugly because of the military backing it & the peg to oil......

But if actual content/leverage/debt/wars financed etc.... is taken into consideration.

Lastly look at where it gets its power..........The backing of future taxation/ faith of the people.

The people that are unemployed more than ever & the people that are saying $^#% to the banks & walking in droves from

mortgages etc.

We will see where it all goes....But yes least perceived ugly for now

[jazzbo]

"Lastly"... if it were only true

[Gambles]

Funny too.. because it I wonder if actually it is the ugliest..... I know it is perceived as the least ugly because of the military backing it & the peg to oil......

But if actual content/leverage/debt/wars financed etc.... is taken into consideration.

but as you rightly say it isn't...so for now a clear winner

but you're right this all just serves to support the Dollar to the point where down the line a Wile-E-Coyote moment becomes the only outcome that I can envisage

[flying]

so for now a clear winner

but you're right this all just serves to support the Dollar to the point where down the line a Wile-E-Coyote moment becomes the only outcome that I can envisage

I think most have always thought the USD would be... or perceived to be....

the last Fiat standing. As such represents a safe haven of sorts...albeit temporary...

Because in reality it suffers the same condition as any of the others. In many ways maybe worse off than the others....If not for its world reserve currency status/oil peg/military backing .It would be long seen for what it is...bankrupt paper IOU's

Perhaps it would have been more fair to the others if the world reserve & oil peg was a true basket of all currencies.

Not that the end result would be different today.

In any case I agree with your Wile-E-Coyote moment.....In fact I think he went splat long ago. All we see now is some stunt double trying to convince us he is still alive & well

Edited May 8, 2010 by flying

[jazzbo]

I knew lastly was too good to be true... Now it's back to more Madame Defarge moments.

[Gambles]

so for now a clear winner

but you're right this all just serves to support the Dollar to the point where down the line a Wile-E-Coyote moment becomes the only outcome that I can envisage

I think most have always thought the USD would be... or perceived to be....

the last Fiat standing. As such represents a safe haven of sorts...albeit temporary...

Because in reality it suffers the same condition as any of the others. In many ways maybe worse off than the others....If not for its world reserve currency status/oil peg/military backing .It would be long seen for what it is...bankrupt paper IOU's

Perhaps it would have been more fair to the others if the world reserve & oil peg was a true basket of all currencies.

Not that the end result would be different today.

In any case I agree with your Wile-E-Coyote moment.....In fact I think he went splat long ago. All we see now is some stunt double trying to convince us he is still alive & well

good one!

I like the Defarge comment too

So she's knitting her Euro death sentence now and Sterling, then Aud....and USD is the last one....

[Naam]

good one! I like the Defarge comment too So she's knitting her Euro death sentence now and Sterling, then Aud....and USD is the last one...

in those four years i read Thaivisa i learned that those who posted the biggest hoo-ha about a currency going up or down were excellent contraindicators

[lannarebirth]

good one! I like the Defarge comment too So she's knitting her Euro death sentence now and Sterling, then Aud....and USD is the last one...

in those four years i read Thaivisa i learned that those who posted the biggest hoo-ha about a currency going up or down were excellent contraindicators

I've been thinking about this the last day or two. Euro holds weekly support and everyone knows where its headed.

[CPH]

The trust in the Euro have gone away. Long term the US recovery story will move much faster than in Europe which means interest rates in the US will have to be increased at a faster pace than in Europe. Problems in Europe are of a more longterm nature because Europe did not act fast enough during the crisis. And now the problems in Greece, Portugal, Spain etc. All this should bode well for the US dollar.

[tijnebijn]

I think its so funny how most of you collapse in fear and panic instantly and are doomsaying the Euro , like you did

with the dollar and before that ( '08 ) the Euro and pound would come to parity what never happened , now those scenarios

surely will come again , although I read about 1.15 to the dollar now , so slighty better then in '08 .

Anyway I don't say the eurozone looks particularly good , but i don't think the US looks much better too ,

both have still a hard and bumpy road to ride , and the Eurozone could still ( rather late ) use some tools to stop the downside too rapidly , but downtrend it is .

But who knows what we are talking about next year , China major bubble ? Asia selloff ?

Or a new world currency ?

IMHO currency rates are unpredictable , and in 6 months time there will be a new doom and gloom and

and collapse of the next in line , whatever or wherever that may be , fear is what leads the markets right now .

Edited May 8, 2010 by tijnebijn

[jazzbo]

Every time I read one of Kuhn F.'s posts I think of the Holly Hunter line (as Jane Craig) from the screenplay of Broadcast News

Paul Moore: It must be nice to always believe you know better, to always think you're the smartest person in the room.

Jane Craig: No. It's awful.

[Gambles]

good one! I like the Defarge comment too So she's knitting her Euro death sentence now and Sterling, then Aud....and USD is the last one...

in those four years i read Thaivisa i learned that those who posted the biggest hoo-ha about a currency going up or down were excellent contraindicators

currencies are like anything else; if someone has a good track record look at why & how? Does it make sense and is it sustainable/repreatable? If so then it's worth learning from/buying into

If on the other hand there are people out there in the great wide world controlling significant amounts of capital who are patently misguided then take the Steve Eisman approach of "I wanna short that guy because he's moron - I want to look at every trade he does and be on the other side of his stupidest ones"

In terms of Sterling or Euro I'm happy enough and sufficiently rewarded that the moves that we expected have happened - from this point I'd probably expect both to go down but from an investment stance I'd be pretty neutral right now...I'm short term long USD and SGD (if I could easily get RM I would but I don't believe that this plays well synthetically), medium and long term long SGD/THB/MYR/IR/NT$/KRW/Gold (can't quite get my head around IDR and PHP). Yen is interesting and could be a huge star but the risks worry me. Medium term short AUD and NZD.

Short term currency moves are virtually impossible to call but over medium terms there are a reasonable number of consistent performers who recognise currency fundamentals very well.

Not sure if they've posted on TV or not though but I personally think that Flying's comments were very instructive - and I loved his W-E-C visual that he came back with!

[cdnvic]

Every time I read one of Kuhn F.'s posts I think of the Holly Hunter line (as Jane Craig) from the screenplay of Broadcast News

Paul Moore: It must be nice to always believe you know better, to always think you're the smartest person in the room.

Jane Craig: No. It's awful.

If all you have is derogatory comments about members then keep it to yourself.

[jazzbo]

Derogatory? As George C. Scott told James Stewart in Anatomy of a Murder: You haven't lived...

But no problem... Since he considers me a 'hollow shell' (he refers to me as 'Spazzbo' and POTUS BHO as 'Zobama') he has me on IGNORE anyway...

He recently posted that his Constitutional Rights were being trampled by the current administration -- of course he never bothers to say which ones...

But that's OK. It's either post here (avg. 4.5 per day) or join the Tea Party.

[churchill]

..

Edited May 9, 2010 by churchill