Could The Dollar Be In A New Bull Market?

[churchill]

good one! I like the Defarge comment too So she's knitting her Euro death sentence now and Sterling, then Aud....and USD is the last one...

in those four years i read Thaivisa i learned that those who posted the biggest hoo-ha about a currency going up or down were excellent contraindicators

currencies are like anything else; if someone has a good track record look at why & how? Does it make sense and is it sustainable/repreatable? If so then it's worth learning from/buying into

If on the other hand there are people out there in the great wide world controlling significant amounts of capital who are patently misguided then take the Steve Eisman approach of "I wanna short that guy because he's moron - I want to look at every trade he does and be on the other side of his stupidest ones"

In terms of Sterling or Euro I'm happy enough and sufficiently rewarded that the moves that we expected have happened - from this point I'd probably expect both to go down but from an investment stance I'd be pretty neutral right now...I'm short term long USD and SGD (if I could easily get RM I would but I don't believe that this plays well synthetically), medium and long term long SGD/THB/MYR/IR/NT$/KRW/Gold (can't quite get my head around IDR and PHP). Yen is interesting and could be a huge star but the risks worry me. Medium term short AUD and NZD.

Short term currency moves are virtually impossible to call but over medium terms there are a reasonable number of consistent performers who recognise currency fundamentals very well.

Not sure if they've posted on TV or not though but I personally think that Flying's comments were very instructive - and I loved his W-E-C visual that he came back with!

What about CHF - Could be a better bet than SGD short term ?

[Gambles]

good one! I like the Defarge comment too So she's knitting her Euro death sentence now and Sterling, then Aud....and USD is the last one...

in those four years i read Thaivisa i learned that those who posted the biggest hoo-ha about a currency going up or down were excellent contraindicators

currencies are like anything else; if someone has a good track record look at why & how? Does it make sense and is it sustainable/repreatable? If so then it's worth learning from/buying into

If on the other hand there are people out there in the great wide world controlling significant amounts of capital who are patently misguided then take the Steve Eisman approach of "I wanna short that guy because he's moron - I want to look at every trade he does and be on the other side of his stupidest ones"

In terms of Sterling or Euro I'm happy enough and sufficiently rewarded that the moves that we expected have happened - from this point I'd probably expect both to go down but from an investment stance I'd be pretty neutral right now...I'm short term long USD and SGD (if I could easily get RM I would but I don't believe that this plays well synthetically), medium and long term long SGD/THB/MYR/IR/NT$/KRW/Gold (can't quite get my head around IDR and PHP). Yen is interesting and could be a huge star but the risks worry me. Medium term short AUD and NZD.

Short term currency moves are virtually impossible to call but over medium terms there are a reasonable number of consistent performers who recognise currency fundamentals very well.

Not sure if they've posted on TV or not though but I personally think that Flying's comments were very instructive - and I loved his W-E-C visual that he came back with!

What about CHF - Could be a better bet than SGD short term ?

hard to see and big risk as medium to long term ChF looks like an accident waiting to happen

[churchill]

I think we will get a bounce in Euro etc after such large moves but still think the USD will strengthen over the coming weeks

Asian Currencies Feel Pain of Europe's Crisis

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405...latestheadlines

Edited May 9, 2010 by churchill

[Gambles]

I think we will get a bounce in Euro etc after such large moves but still think the USD will strengthen over the coming weeks

Asian Currencies Feel Pain of Europe's Crisis

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405...latestheadlines

Wouldn't be surprised but wouldn't try to call such short term

Dollar medium term and Asian longer term still looks right to me - Euro has too many imponderables for me to want to take either side on it at these levels (sorry for fence-sitting) - short term it could bounce, long term there are a lot of questions that need to be answered.....

[flying]

but still think the USD will strengthen over the coming weeks

That would be nice for me as I wanted to buy some Baht

[jazzbo]

Fiat $US for Fiat Baht... a nice exchange

As for the $US: "...In reality it suffers the same condition as any of the others... bankrupt paper IOU's"

Whose reality? Yours?

The late NY Senator (and Harvard PoliSci Professor) Daniel Patrick Moynihan said: "Everyone is entitled to their own opinion but not their own facts."

[teletiger]

Haha.....Jman's back, causing mayhem and carn......actually more like an itch in 'yer crack at the wrong time.

You still going along with that reality that's delivered to you every morning, to digest along with your eggy soldiers? You do like a quote Jman. Anything original in there?

BTW. Bambi is a stain on the office of POTUS. IMHO you understand.

Regards.

[jazzbo]

I like to quote because you have to able to read and be well read to do so... and then it is not only your opinion being expressed... you've already made the estimation on what your opinion is worth... with your idiot emoticon to boot.

[badge]

I wouldnt be surprised to see EURUSD encounter some resisatance from profit slicing squeezers, around .2970, or .3070 perhaps? I see infact EURUSD is currently .2935 after hitting a high 70mins ago of .2965, so perhaps within 5pips was enough to entice some sellers

[badge]

I like to quote because you have to able to read and be well read to do so... and then it is not only your opinion being expressed... you've already made the estimation on what your opinion is worth... with your idiot emoticon to boot.

As Churchill says; "It is a good thing for an uneducated man to read books of quotations. "

Sir Winston Churchill.

[jazzbo]

Great... You must have gotten that one out of Bartlett's.

[sokal]

The trust in the Euro have gone away. Long term the US recovery story will move much faster than in Europe which means interest rates in the US will have to be increased at a faster pace than in Europe. Problems in Europe are of a more longterm nature because Europe did not act fast enough during the crisis. And now the problems in Greece, Portugal, Spain etc. All this should bode well for the US dollar.

US recovery ? I guess when unemplyment goes up that indicates a recovery. And yes, the US was quicker to issue IOUs then greece was. Good for them.

[sokal]

Fiat $US for Fiat Baht... a nice exchange

As for the $US: "...In reality it suffers the same condition as any of the others... bankrupt paper IOU's"

Whose reality? Yours?

The late NY Senator (and Harvard PoliSci Professor) Daniel Patrick Moynihan said: "Everyone is entitled to their own opinion but not their own facts."

Incase you didn't notice, SE Asia is not bankrupt. If it was then who would be buying US bonds ?

[jazzbo]

I looked at the recent Chapter 11 filings -- The US Treasury wasn't listed...

Whenever I think I may be taking you Conservatives too seriously, I just watch this:

[badge]

I wouldnt be surprised to see EURUSD encounter some resisatance from profit slicing squeezers, around .2970, or .3070 perhaps? I see infact EURUSD is currently .2935 after hitting a high 70mins ago of .2965, so perhaps within 5pips was enough to entice some sellers

Todays high in EURUSD was .3092, which then saw a 330pip reversal.

My model had an exact figure of .3073 as resistance, so 19 pips out.

Luckily my stops are more than 19pips

"Fail to plan, plan to fail" - Badge

[jazzbo]

J-man will now apologize for the drive-by intrusion and will now take leave -- I know you guys need a safe place to play where nobody makes fun of you... like they maybe did during an unhappy childhood... JB lives @ http://www.jbs.org/

[churchill]

European Banks Now Feverishly Betting Against Euro, As Bailout Fails, Gold Surges

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/european-...ils-gold-surges

[Naam]

European Banks Now Feverishly Betting Against Euro, As Bailout Fails, Gold Surges

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/european-...ils-gold-surges

i wish i got and will get 10,000 dollars every time Tyler Durden talked/talks rubbish.

[churchill]

Well it might be slightly tongue in cheek - but who would bet against it /

French banks down 20% up 15% down 5%- Somebody's having fun at the expense of German tax payers /

Was it a Greek bailout or a French Bank bail out ?

Edited May 11, 2010 by churchill

[Naam]

Churchill,

it is a well known fact that €U-banks (including greek ones) were -and perhaps are still- shorting greek debt via credit default swaps. but only somebody completely drunk or brain-amputated can come up with the fairy tale that an €U-bank with its huge exposure in € is shorting the currency. even if different trading desks would try this for personal benefits they would be stopped in no time.

after the "Kerviel incident 2008" in Société Générale the reigns have been tightened, especially in french banks. and the rest of Durden's bank bail-out bla-bla is nothing but "turd" lacking any logic.

[churchill]

Churchill,

it is a well known fact that €U-banks (including greek ones) were -and perhaps are still- shorting greek debt via credit default swaps. but only somebody completely drunk or brain-amputated can come up with the fairy tale that an €U-bank with its huge exposure in € is shorting the currency. even if different trading desks would try this for personal benefits they would be stopped in no time.

after the "Kerviel incident 2008" in Société Générale the reigns have been tightened, especially in french banks. and the rest of Durden's bank bail-out bla-bla is nothing but "turd" lacking any logic.

You have more faith in traders at French banks or any banks than most /

[LaoPo]

..Food for Thought:

Porter Stansberry: The U.S. dollar is about to implode

http://www.thedailycrux.com/content/4751/P..._Stansberry/eml

Note: I have rarely read more contrarian stories and opinions about the USD as well as the EURO as in the past few weeks....and days....

It's all in the game....if we only would know....

LaoPo

[sokal]

European Banks Now Feverishly Betting Against Euro, As Bailout Fails, Gold Surges

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/european-...ils-gold-surges

and i wonder what will happen when they start betting against the dollar ? new bull market ?

[sokal]

European Banks Now Feverishly Betting Against Euro, As Bailout Fails, Gold Surges

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/european-...ils-gold-surges

i wish i got and will get 10,000 dollars every time Tyler Durden talked/talks rubbish.

so where do you get your daily news ? Mad Money with Jim Cramer ?

[flying]

Well it might be slightly tongue in cheek - but who would bet against it /

French banks down 20% up 15% down 5%- Somebody's having fun at the expense of German tax payers /

Was it a Greek bailout or a French Bank bail out ?

I think it is all just starting.....

Looks like Italy will be next ...didnt I read they have the most short term debt?

I believe they owe something like a half a trillion Euros to France alone & their debt to GDP is about the same as Greece no?

The interest on servicing that debt is going to be rising shortly.

Get your metals now because premiums will be going through the roof ...I am still sticking to my story of 4/12/10

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Gold-and-Sil...87#entry3498387

Euro is toasted & like I said elsewhere I think it will continue (Euro) in a short form.

They will eventually kick the PIIGS & more? out. Those will return to their currencies & cut a deal on their liabilities.

The banks in Europe will suffer the loss.

Edited May 11, 2010 by flying

[Naam]

another thread on PIIGS and €UR:

Yesterday, 2010-05-11 14:35:50 Post #26

Well I do agree the end of Euro would be best for the strong in Euroland.

no it wouldn't Flying. although a cash net payer into Brussel's "let's waste the dough bin" the strong benefit immensely because nearly 60% of their exports are shipped into €UR-areas. this enables the producers to do a longterm cost planning without taking exchange rate fluctuations and hedging into consideration. the € is only in a mess because every cheating Bill, Buck, Hank and Joe was admitted into the monetary union.

**********

post Yesterday, 2010-05-11 14:45:37

Post #27

QUOTE (Naam @ 2010-05-11 14:35:50) *

Well I do agree the end of Euro would be best for the strong in Euroland.

no it wouldn't Flying. although a cash net payer into Brussel's "let's waste the dough bin" the strong benefit immensely because nearly 60% of their exports are shipped into €UR-areas. this enables the producers to do a longterm cost planning without taking exchange rate fluctuations and hedging into consideration. the € is only in a mess because every cheating Bill, Buck, Hank and Joe was admitted into the monetary union.

I think in some ways we are actually saying the same thing....

Because I also said....

I think or my guess I should say is that the Euro will continue in the countries that can afford it... & rightfully so IMO.

When I said the end I meant the end of its present form. They should drop Bill, Buck, Hank & Joe wink.gif

I actually think they will but you never know. Now they are pushing for their own mega bailout...

Still while they deal with G I think they may be surprised by the depth of P, I & S before it is all over.

Then again with their new mega bailout maybe they will pretend it does not exist? You know like the way the US does with California's debt which exceeds in relation Greece

Mad Mad World biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by flying: Yesterday, 2010-05-11 14:46:44

**********

QUOTE (Naam @ 2010-05-11 14:35:50) *

Well I do agree the end of Euro would be best for the strong in Euroland.

no it wouldn't Flying. although a cash net payer into Brussel's "let's waste the dough bin" the strong benefit immensely because nearly 60% of their exports are shipped into €UR-areas. this enables the producers to do a longterm cost planning without taking exchange rate fluctuations and hedging into consideration. the € is only in a mess because every cheating Bill, Buck, Hank and Joe was admitted into the monetary union.

in many way the writing was on the wall when they let countries like greece, and italy in as their govt's have never been know to be stable. Even the germans who are footing the majority of the bill has had it's issue with fiscal budgets.

**********

post Yesterday, 2010-05-11 19:49:33

Post #30

Still while they deal with G I think they may be surprised by the depth of P, I & S before it is all over. Then again with their new mega bailout maybe they will pretend it does not exist?

Flying,

right now there is no mega bail-out and there might not be one if the €U political àsses are firm, act and don't talk to much sh*t. what they are doing now is filling up the war chest to scare the speculators.

Portugal's medium term maturities yield 3.84%, Spain's yields are 3.24% and Italy has to pay 3.60% for a 5-y maturity. all sustainable. so i ask where's the bail-out beef? only in the brains of blogspotters, zerohedgers and the usual doom&gloom suspects!

even the bail-out of Greece might not have been necessary without the shorting of greek debt via credit default swaps. the ironic thing is that even greek banks participated in the shorting. only 6 months ago Greece was able to refinance at 5% (5-y maturities) and a year ago at 4% which was sustainable. CDS speculators have catapulted these rates into unsustainable heights. the bad news is that the Greek won't be willing to bear the brunt their government promises.

**********

post Yesterday, 2010-05-11 20:56:20

Post #31

QUOTE (Naam @ 2010-05-10 12:52:11) *

QUOTE (AlexLah @ 2010-05-10 00:20:22) *

It will end up in a war.

that goes without saying. for sure the headhunters from Papua New Guinea will invade the Christmas Islands and force the islanders to abandon the EUR and adopt shrinkheads as currency.

Economic warfare maybe. Trade war probably.

**********

post Yesterday, 2010-05-11 21:04:05

Post #32

QUOTE (Naam @ 2010-05-11 15:35:50) *

Well I do agree the end of Euro would be best for the strong in Euroland.

no it wouldn't Flying. although a cash net payer into Brussel's "let's waste the dough bin" the strong benefit immensely because nearly 60% of their exports are shipped into €UR-areas. this enables the producers to do a longterm cost planning without taking exchange rate fluctuations and hedging into consideration. the € is only in a mess because every cheating Bill, Buck, Hank and Joe was admitted into the monetary union.

That's part of the story, the rest of the story is that finacial institutions and "accredited investors" from "founding" member states lent money to these poor cousins and rather than bear the risk inherent in such an investment are now being back stopped to the detriment of more cautious investors. It reeks of moral hazard and I think we're getting a little to far down that slippery slope to find something strong to grab on to.

This post has been edited by lannarebirth: Yesterday, 2010-05-11 21:07:09

**********

QUOTE (Naam @ 2010-05-11 19:49:33) *

Still while they deal with G I think they may be surprised by the depth of P, I & S before it is all over. Then again with their new mega bailout maybe they will pretend it does not exist?

Flying,

right now there is no mega bail-out and there might not be one if the €U political àsses are firm, act and don't talk to much sh*t. what they are doing now is filling up the war chest to scare the speculators.

Portugal's medium term maturities yield 3.84%, Spain's yields are 3.24% and Italy has to pay 3.60% for a 5-y maturity. all sustainable. so i ask where's the bail-out beef? only in the brains of blogspotters, zerohedgers and the usual doom&gloom suspects!

even the bail-out of Greece might not have been necessary without the shorting of greek debt via credit default swaps. the ironic thing is that even greek banks participated in the shorting. only 6 months ago Greece was able to refinance at 5% (5-y maturities) and a year ago at 4% which was sustainable. CDS speculators have catapulted these rates into unsustainable heights. the bad news is that the Greek won't be willing to bear the brunt their government promises.

Yes I should have said proposed mega bailout.... wink.gif

But even at the number they are throwing around to scare as you say...I just dont see it being anywhere near enough. When considering just what Italy owes France. Someone is going to take a haircut.

Like Lannarebirth said it is getting hard to find something solid to grab

What you say about the shorting is interesting though. Makes you wonder about the short sightedness ( no pun intended) of the Greek banks...Just greed? Crazy Times

This post has been edited by flying: Today, 2010-05-12 00:39:44

**********

an interesting development of "porcine" yields based on the rumour that the ECB bought "PIIG Bonds" in the secondary market:

**********

What you say about the shorting is interesting though. Makes you wonder about the short sightedness ( no pun intended) of the Greek banks...Just greed? Crazy Times

no shortsightedness, just greed. one has to differentiate between €U-banks speculating against €UR and €U-banks speculating against €U-debt. one can be suicidal, the other can be very profitable. that the latter was not profitable for shorters who jumped on the train too late is a different story. they are licking now their wounds. cool.gif

[bwalker1973]

The dollar is currently stablising, and no matter what, the european sector is putting some action in the markets, at the moment, the markets are controlled by stimulous, and when the inflation kicks in we will see the market crash to march 2009 lows again, we are going through what is known as a W recovery, and we are in the middle.

People who follow the markets, and the technical insights will know this.

Europe has dug a big hole by helping grease out, because each economy within the Euro sector will gain around 5-10 billion euro of greek debts.

And if when the inflation kicks in around end of this year beginning of the next year, trouble will be in the air, when we enter the double dip recession.

[Gambles]

The dollar is currently stablising, and no matter what, the european sector is putting some action in the markets, at the moment, the markets are controlled by stimulous, and when the inflation kicks in we will see the market crash to march 2009 lows again, we are going through what is known as a W recovery, and we are in the middle.

People who follow the markets, and the technical insights will know this.

Europe has dug a big hole by helping grease out, because each economy within the Euro sector will gain around 5-10 billion euro of greek debts.

And if when the inflation kicks in around end of this year beginning of the next year, trouble will be in the air, when we enter the double dip recession.

While for now the Dollar has the exorbitant privilege, which will help in the short term, ultimately all indebted currencies will have to face their day of reckoning....