Red Shirt Rally November 29

[TAWP]

They aren't going to pull some white farang over for marching in the crowd, that will never happen. But they ARE afraid that underpaid foreign workers (Burmese etc) will be 'convinced' to join the protests at basically discount rates and swell the crowds, making the assemblies look bigger on tv than the level of support might be.

Now, is it right to bar anyway from joining the demonstration? No.

Even if they are payed? No.

[h90]

Any updates on what the planned marching routes are, please?

no but it is estimated that 40.000 people will come (so a bit short of 1.000.000)

How they think they can do a peoples revolution with just 40.000??

But lets see who is right at the end.....

If they go for it I think it will be more than 40K. Some of the upcountry rallies recently although not exactly matching organisers claims have been quite well attended. At Songkran there were also smaller demos at many provincial towns some were very small but some were quite large although this wasnt widely reported. Having simultaneous provincial demos may happen again. It really depends on how much they push for it and what the intention is. Right now we just dont know. 40K sounds like authorities dont think they'll go for it.

It was a Bangkok Post article that claimed "40 000". It most likely will be more.

Before the Songkran riots at the day the marched to Prem's house conservative estimates was more than 100 000 people (lets ignore red shirt claims of 300 000 - they are about as exaggerated as PAD claims always were).

What is lost a bit on the high claims of PAD and Reds, that a 100.000 real people are a extreme lot of people. Of course the question is how motivated they are. Also there are a lot rumors about guns (Jakraphob told) and from some military skilled people. Might be just rumors seed from one party or the other one.

If there is a shootings in Bangkok with blood on the street, Thailand can forget about Tourists and economic grow, no matter who wins.

[h90]

They aren't going to pull some white farang over for marching in the crowd, that will never happen. But they ARE afraid that underpaid foreign workers (Burmese etc) will be 'convinced' to join the protests at basically discount rates and swell the crowds, making the assemblies look bigger on tv than the level of support might be.

Now, is it right to bar anyway from joining the demonstration? No.

Even if they are payed? No.

Some are afraid that there are mercenary with guns mixed in the demonstrations. I have my doubts that this is true.

But will it bar away anyone evil if you tell in TV that they aren't allowed? No

[justanothercybertosser]

What is lost a bit on the high claims of PAD and Reds, that a 100.000 real people are a extreme lot of people. Of course the question is how motivated they are. Also there are a lot rumors about guns (Jakraphob told) and from some military skilled people. Might be just rumors seed from one party or the other one.

If there is a shootings in Bangkok with blood on the street, Thailand can forget about Tourists and economic grow, no matter who wins.

100 000 people are a lot of people. People of both colors are politically highly motivated. People with a background in the military are in both PAD and Red Shirts. Both sides have already used guns and other lethal weapons against each other, have injured and killed their adversaries.

As there is no political solution, no compromise in sight, sooner or later there will be blood in the street. And all sides will be equally guilty - Red Shirts, PAD, government and military.

Last week Sunday we have seen clearly what the stakes are - extremely violently nationalistic speeches by the PAD (link: http://www.prachatai.com/english/node/1495 ), and a grenade launched into their rally. There will be more violence, from all sides.

[kampengphetklaus]

The government will be there before and after the rally, all this will do is help people adjust their travel plans and take their winter holiday in another country..

It's such a shame, instead of promoting the kings birthday and inviting people from far and wide to come and celebrate and join with the Thai people and see real thai culture and to be part of a wonderful historic event...we have this vengeful rant sullying a special time.

It will be interesting to hear his majestys comments during his birthday speech.

Taksin, Jutaporn and Jakrapob - Buddism 101: Desire = Suffering, (You desire power, you will experience suffering)

I don't understand why these idiots spoil the touristseason again. Who want to spend holidays here under circumstances like riots and demonstrations. I'm sorry for the peaceloving 90% of the Thais.

[WinnieTheKhwai]

The government will be there before and after the rally, all this will do is help people adjust their travel plans and take their winter holiday in another country..

It's such a shame, instead of promoting the kings birthday and inviting people from far and wide to come and celebrate and join with the Thai people and see real thai culture and to be part of a wonderful historic event...we have this vengeful rant sullying a special time.

It will be interesting to hear his majestys comments during his birthday speech.

Taksin, Jutaporn and Jakrapob - Buddism 101: Desire = Suffering, (You desire power, you will experience suffering)

I don't understand why these idiots spoil the touristseason again. Who want to spend holidays here under circumstances like riots and demonstrations. I'm sorry for the peaceloving 90% of the Thais.

Quite possibly a lot of people realize that there are greater things at stake than the occupancy rate of some hotel or resort chain.

I'd be more sorry if Thailand goes all the way turning into a fascist or feudal state.

[Netfan]

The Thais I work with - uni profs, administrative people - were discussing the rally at lunch today. They are VERY concerned that this is going to be bad, as in violent. And they are saddened by the timing of the demonstration. They have no problem with peaceful political demonstrations, but they see choosing to begin just before Father's Day as designed to draw a reaction, which the Reds believe will justify letting the violence begin.

[KireB]

I'd be more sorry if Thailand goes all the way turning into a fascist or feudal state.

Without the PAD demonstrations in 2006 and the generals stepping in Thailand was hard on its way to become a fascist state with Thaksin as absolute head of state, and no check and balances in teh political system!

Seems to me that we've moved in the right direction at the moment!

People here keep on coming back on the illegality of the 2006 coup, but forget that most democracies sprouted from revolutions or takeovers!

[rixalex]

Quite possibly a lot of people realize that there are greater things at stake than the occupancy rate of some hotel or resort chain.

Precisely what the yellows told us when they occupied the airport.

[KireB]

Quite possibly a lot of people realize that there are greater things at stake than the occupancy rate of some hotel or resort chain.

Precisely what the yellows told us when they occupied the airport.

And they were right, weren't they! The stakes and objectives, getting rid of the corrupt government mafia, were more important than the closure!

We ll blame Thais for being apethic and irresponsible, but these people weren't! They actually tried to change the social and political landscape of this country!

And that worth something, believe it or not!

I must admit, though, that I am happy I didn't need the airport at that time!

[TAWP]

The government will be there before and after the rally, all this will do is help people adjust their travel plans and take their winter holiday in another country..

It's such a shame, instead of promoting the kings birthday and inviting people from far and wide to come and celebrate and join with the Thai people and see real thai culture and to be part of a wonderful historic event...we have this vengeful rant sullying a special time.

It will be interesting to hear his majestys comments during his birthday speech.

Taksin, Jutaporn and Jakrapob - Buddism 101: Desire = Suffering, (You desire power, you will experience suffering)

I don't understand why these idiots spoil the touristseason again. Who want to spend holidays here under circumstances like riots and demonstrations. I'm sorry for the peaceloving 90% of the Thais.

Quite possibly a lot of people realize that there are greater things at stake than the occupancy rate of some hotel or resort chain.

I'd be more sorry if Thailand goes all the way turning into a fascist or feudal state.

Same argument was used against the Yellow - but I didn't see you defend them then nor do it retroactively...

[rixalex]

Quite possibly a lot of people realize that there are greater things at stake than the occupancy rate of some hotel or resort chain.

If we are going to be precise, it's 76 billion things at stake.

[animatic]

IMHO using the ISA is a mistake. Either the Reds will protest peacefully, which is their right, or they will commit political suicide by rioting on the King's birthday.

It doesn't seem logical that they will be peaceful after HRM birthday is over.

This is Thaksin's last possible big push to win the whole pie of fail miserably.

After that he won't have the leverage. So I sadly expect semi-peaceful,

with instigations of security forces, in the hopes they might slip up and

theoretically be apportioned the blame for the violence, before the birthday.

Once it starts it is political suicide if they don't take over, while blaming the other side,

or win because the other side lost the peoples endorsement.

This of course assumes the people will side with the reds

starting the rally prior to HRM birthday most knowing full well

it IS a provocation just to HAVE IT START then.

What happened to the talk being peaceful awaiting a pardon?

Oops forgot that in the wash, mai pben rai.

[justanothercybertosser]

I'd be more sorry if Thailand goes all the way turning into a fascist or feudal state.

Without the PAD demonstrations in 2006 and the generals stepping in Thailand was hard on its way to become a fascist state with Thaksin as absolute head of state, and no check and balances in teh political system!

Seems to me that we've moved in the right direction at the moment!

People here keep on coming back on the illegality of the 2006 coup, but forget that most democracies sprouted from revolutions or takeovers!

And again i post this link, so you get an idea who resembles a fascist organisation here in Thailand:

http://www.prachatai.com/english/node/1495

Would any of the PAD apologists here on this board comment on this article, and the content of the PAD speeches, please?

[justanothercybertosser]

Same argument was used against the Yellow - but I didn't see you defend them then nor do it retroactively...

I do think the upcoming protests are ill timed, and maybe to radical, yet there are a few differences between the political messages of the two groups. While the PAD has a basically nationalist extreme political postion (read the link i posted in my post just before), Red Shirts have a social liberal stand. Also - the Red Shirts may have caused the Songkran rioting (with active help of the government who had to form the "blue shirts"...), none of their actions have yet reached the lows of illegaly occupying government house and the airports.

Lets see what comes in this round...

[animatic]

They aren't going to pull some white farang over for marching in the crowd, that will never happen. But they ARE afraid that underpaid foreign workers (Burmese etc) will be 'convinced' to join the protests at basically discount rates and swell the crowds, making the assemblies look bigger on tv than the level of support might be.

Now, is it right to bar anyway from joining the demonstration? No.

Even if they are payed? No.

On the mark TAWP.

Swell the numbers with Thai looking faces.

And this explains the checks on factories employing large numbers of foreign worker bees,

not meaning management slackers or bluejeaned PolySci grads from Berklee or Sorbonne,

social activist types, but grunt laborers who are indistinguishable in a crowd for more Thai's

in support of the Red Side.

[animatic]

It can never return to a feudal state ever again,

things ARE changing, but a sharp turn into a fascist state

is a real possibility should Thaksin regain control by force.

Which is the desired endgame for that side.

Take power in what ever way they can.

[Steve2UK]

VERY good comments Steve2UK, and another sign that bit by bit Thailand is becoming less free, and freedom of expression is being limited. (And not just for foreigners either).

( BTW, no need to jump through all those hoops in relating to the BK Post; Suthep's inane comments were all over the Thai media as well. I read it in Matichon. )

He basically said that 'freedom of expression applies to Thais only'. Makes you wonder what other rights apply to Thais only. (In Suthep's mind, that must be said). Fortunately some Red groups seem more open, and have a much more enlightened view of Democracy. (Note: "some" does not mean "all".)

Yes, I was aware of the Matichon report - but (not being a Thai-reader) only second-hand and in part. If I had been able to find any mention of that part of what Suthep said in The Nation (just checked again and there still seems to be none - what a fine newspaper of record it is.... not), I would have taken the easier course of quoting verbatim. Anyhow, I thought the readers' comments on the Bangkok Post report were also worth seeing - hence the cumbersome jumping through hoops.....as absurd as it seems. (Hi George - any word yet on at least being able to post a link if not quote?).

Medegen (post #119) already referred to Bangkok Pundit's item - I recommend reading the comments from "poc" and "Ty" there.

As TAWP (post #122) IMO astutely observes, Suthep's remarks seem aimed pretty much at the Burmese (and other) labour force - though I think it's fair to say that no-one can do more than speculate as to whether (if they were to turn up at all) they would have been paid to attend and thus "swell the crowds" as he goes on to suggest.

Regarding the release from the government's news bureau (post #116), I was struck by the quote attributed to Pol Maj-Gen Sumet that "Factory owners must be responsible for the immigrant laborers who take leave and join the rally.....". That's seems reminiscent of laws relating to indentured/tied labour that have generally not been seen outside of feudal systems elsewhere. Incidentally, I note that even the government's release refers only to "hearing that they have been urged to join the UDD movement on 28 November" - rather than TAWP's somewhat more - shall we say? - suggestive "'convinced' to join the protests at basically discount rates and swell the crowds, making the assemblies look bigger on tv than the level of support might be"........ [my italic emphasis]

Edited November 24, 2009 by Steve2UK

[TAWP]

I didn't try to imply that they WILL swell the crowds, it just seems that that is what the talk was aimed at. Might be hot air or they might truly be afraid of it.

They are however not afraid of a single farang all dressed up in red.

[KireB]

I'd be more sorry if Thailand goes all the way turning into a fascist or feudal state.

Without the PAD demonstrations in 2006 and the generals stepping in Thailand was hard on its way to become a fascist state with Thaksin as absolute head of state, and no check and balances in teh political system!

Seems to me that we've moved in the right direction at the moment!

People here keep on coming back on the illegality of the 2006 coup, but forget that most democracies sprouted from revolutions or takeovers!

And again i post this link, so you get an idea who resembles a fascist organisation here in Thailand:

http://www.prachatai.com/english/node/1495

Would any of the PAD apologists here on this board comment on this article, and the content of the PAD speeches, please?

I think you confuse me for a PAD apologist! I was sincerely glad that they went on the streets in 2006, was shocked that it was necessary the occupy an airport at the time and am absolutely not convinced of any their ideologies! I am actually quite pleased with the Dems at the steering wheel at this particular moment!

[RickBradford]

If a nationwide election were held tomorrow, who would win?

If nobody clearly won, which parties might legitimately form a majority coalition?

[animatic]

Right, right,

United Workers untie.

[animatic]

If a nationwide election were held tomorrow, who would win?

If nobody clearly won, which parties might legitimately form a majority coalition?

1

the largest vote getter nationaly would get first shot at it.

If it can't succeed during a 'reasonable time frame'

2

the second biggest vote getter gets a crack at it.

Aproximately the same 'time frame', (duration not stated anywhere that I have seen)

3

occasionally if that also fails

smaller parties are given a shot if they can show,

pledged votes in relative strength to either of the two larger parties.

If 1,2 or 3 fail a new election is called.

Edited November 24, 2009 by animatic

[justanothercybertosser]

I think you confuse me for a PAD apologist! I was sincerely glad that they went on the streets in 2006, was shocked that it was necessary the occupy an airport at the time and am absolutely not convinced of any their ideologies! I am actually quite pleased with the Dems at the steering wheel at this particular moment!

So, if i understand you right, you do support a group and it's activities whose ideology you abhor? And you are very pleased how the Democrats handle things. Does that also include foreign minister Kasit, who is a PAD member, held speeches on their stage, or Somkiet Pongpaiboon - one of the 5 PAD core leaders and Democrat party list MP, Kraisak Choonhavan - Democrat party list MP and regular speaker at PAD stages, or prime minister Abhisit, who makes a point to show his presence at all ASTV social functions, such as launch parties of the different propaganda outlets, such as TAN network, or ASTV/manager newpaper?

Excuse me if i am slightly confused.

Anyhow, i am yet missing your views on the article i linked to, regarding fascism, etc...

Edited November 24, 2009 by justanothercybertosser

[Publicus]

I think you confuse me for a PAD apologist! I was sincerely glad that they went on the streets in 2006, was shocked that it was necessary the occupy an airport at the time and am absolutely not convinced of any their ideologies! I am actually quite pleased with the Dems at the steering wheel at this particular moment!

So, if i understand you right, you do support a group and it's activities whose ideology you abhor? And you are very pleased how the Democrats handle things. Does that also include foreign minister Kasit, who is a PAD member, held speeches on their stage, or Somkiet Pongpaiboon - one of the 5 PAD core leaders and Democrat party list MP, Kraisak Choonhavan - Democrat party list MP and regular speaker at PAD stages, or prime minister Abhisit, who makes a point to show his presence at all ASTV social functions, such as launch parties of the different propaganda outlets, such as TAN network, or ASTV/manager newpaper?

Excuse me if i am slightly confused.

Anyhow, i am yet missing your views on the article i linked to, regarding fascism, etc...

Maybe you're slightly confused but we aren't. You are red.

Edited November 24, 2009 by Publicus

[Publicus]

Suthep's remarks seem aimed pretty much at the Burmese (and other) labour force - though I think it's fair to say that no-one can do more than speculate as to whether (if they were to turn up at all) they would have been paid to attend and thus "swell the crowds"

[baht&sold]

Quite possibly a lot of people realize that there are greater things at stake than the occupancy rate of some hotel or resort chain.

I'd be more sorry if Thailand goes all the way turning into a fascist or feudal state.

Whinnie, perhaps you mean a RETURN to a feudal /fascist state under Herr Thaksin, ultimately for HIS benefit? (and to re-coup 76 billion baht plus a chance to replenish his offshore bank accounts;)

Defending Mr Thaksin-Rak-Baht must be a rewarding 'job' for some Walter Mitty's...

It's sad Mr Thaksin needs to employ so many to spread manure in order to fertilise such complete Khrap.

[jif]

Reading this morning's paper, it looks like they won't need to worry about whether or not they'll be garner a million protesters. It seems that that a video-link conference was held and they have been counselled by the financier to back off from holding any rally at all as the timing is off.

Why they didn't consider that long before when they first announced the rally is anybody's guess. I suppose it has to do with all the public sentiment going against the inappropriateness of it.

Edited November 24, 2009 by jif

[KireB]

So, if i understand you right, you do support a group and it's activities whose ideology you abhor? And you are very pleased how the Democrats handle things. Does that also include foreign minister Kasit, who is a PAD member, held speeches on their stage, or Somkiet Pongpaiboon - one of the 5 PAD core leaders and Democrat party list MP, Kraisak Choonhavan - Democrat party list MP and regular speaker at PAD stages, or prime minister Abhisit, who makes a point to show his presence at all ASTV social functions, such as launch parties of the different propaganda outlets, such as TAN network, or ASTV/manager newpaper?

Excuse me if i am slightly confused.

Anyhow, i am yet missing your views on the article i linked to, regarding fascism, etc...

Kasit is a loose canon and not a wise choice by the Dems, I fully agree there with you!

You ask me whether I am pleased with the Dems in control? Well, let's consider the alternatives:

Thaksin and his fascist policies? Puea Thai, which only goal would be to change the constitution in order for Thaksin to return? Let's get Somchai back! The PAD? The Red leaders maybe? They make Samak (RIP) look like a schoolboy? Crimelord Newin then?

In the land of the blind, One Eye is king!

Edited November 25, 2009 by KireB

[awd]

Ouch!