Thailand Tourism To Drop 34% This High Season

[TAWP]

rohitsuk,

Ok, that just confirms my suspicions. You are unable to respond to the points raised.

Here they are again.

-Implying that the average tourism business raises prices when volume is down is wrong.

-There are very good reasons why SOME business may raise prices when volume is down.

You complain about ME not focusing on your claims (which I did), but then your entire last post has nothing to do with the discussion WHATSOEVER. The fact that part of your original post was censored gives us a good indication of your motives/agenda.

Give it a rest, he never said most or the average business was doing that. He was making a joke that that would be a bad practise.

You on the other hand jumped in to defend that it might not be.

Alright, please tell us when a hotel, restaurant or other tourist-focused enterprise should raise their prices to compensate for the loss of customers?

[Splatter]

rohitsuk,

Ok, that just confirms my suspicions. You are unable to respond to the points raised.

Here they are again.

-Implying that the average tourism business raises prices when volume is down is wrong.

-There are very good reasons why SOME business may raise prices when volume is down.

You complain about ME not focusing on your claims (which I did), but then your entire last post has nothing to do with the discussion WHATSOEVER. The fact that part of your original post was censored gives us a good indication of your motives/agenda.

Give it a rest, he never said most or the average business was doing that. He was making a joke that that would be a bad practise.

You on the other hand jumped in to defend that it might not be.

Alright, please tell us when a hotel, restaurant or other tourist-focused enterprise should raise their prices to compensate for the loss of customers?

Answer.

Example One.

When the muppety loyal clients that are still left here prove to be price ineleastic, and the organisation raising the prices has a low need for repeat purchasing.

Let's move on to something more interesting please.

Lol and abbreviations and no references to wikipedia.

Seasons greetings.

[hansnl]

Many Europeans are reconsidering whether to go overseas for vacation during the peak season from December to February, as they have found that travel abroad, particularly to Asia, costs more this year, he said.

The strengthening of the euro has become the key factor for the slowdown.

...well, well, well.....how about that?

Almost Baht 50 to the Euro and the Euro has become the key factor for the slowdown.....

how about that ?

Well: European tourism is just 25% of total Thai inbound tourism (more than 60% is from Asia).....so where's the decline of 34% coming from ?

LaoPo

Some figures found in the internet:

People from Europe go on holiday for 15-21 days, and spend 14-20 days in the destination..

Excluding the airfare they spend approx € 100 per day into the local economy and around € 10 for operators in their own country

However, most European visitors don't use tour operators, they are followers of the "do-it-yourself" principle.

People from Asia have shorter holidays and spend 7-9 days in Thailand, mostly organised package tours.

Also excluding the airfare the spending is around € 40 per day in the local economy and maybe € 20 per day with operators in their own country.

And the last amount is NOT spent in the local economy.

Maybe this is also part of the decline?

Edited December 15, 2009 by hansnl

[doggie888888]

Fewer tourists = less queues = less traffic = more peace and quiet = a good thing for me. Selfish, I know...and pity the honest locals relying on the tourist $$$. Maybe it's a good thing to have a wake up call for the industry...if we are to believe all the scams, thieving, poor treatment and crimes aplenty that seem to happen to tourists in Thailand.

[Benjie]

rohitsuk,

Ok, that just confirms my suspicions. You are unable to respond to the points raised.

Here they are again.

-Implying that the average tourism business raises prices when volume is down is wrong.

-There are very good reasons why SOME business may raise prices when volume is down.

You complain about ME not focusing on your claims (which I did), but then your entire last post has nothing to do with the discussion WHATSOEVER. The fact that part of your original post was censored gives us a good indication of your motives/agenda.

Give it a rest, he never said most or the average business was doing that. He was making a joke that that would be a bad practise.

You on the other hand jumped in to defend that it might not be.

Alright, please tell us when a hotel, restaurant or other tourist-focused enterprise should raise their prices to compensate for the loss of customers?

Answer.

Example One.

When the muppety loyal clients that are still left here prove to be price ineleastic, and the organisation raising the prices has a low need for repeat purchasing.

Let's move on to something more interesting please.

Lol and abbreviations and no references to wikipedia.

Seasons greetings.

Surely its a bad example, cigarettes are an example of something that is fairly price inelastic - to an extent - but not hotel rooms, with all their competition essentially offering exactly the same product and the need for repeat business so high.

[cmdream]

Perhaps an example highlights the problem: My friend says hey, I need a break, let's get out of here and I said umm ok, where to? Singapore he says. So he loaded up his credit card with some cheap airfares on Air Asia and that's where we'll be for Christmas. I had said, hey, just a sec. let's try Hua Hin or somewhere nice. Ok, go look dumbass he said, just make sure it's not Pattaya. You understand the difference, right and I'm Thai and (insert Thai rambling statement about dirty farangs and insults about Thai women with tatoos blah blah blah, as if his poop don't stink.) Anyway, I snag an awesome deal at the 5 star Pan Pacific for SG$250 a night (taxes included), then I look at nice hotels in Hua Hin. I nearly soiled myself. Comparable rates at the Sofitel, Hilton and Marriot were all significantly higher - between 50 and 100% more. It's also cheaper for us to fly SIN-HKT then it is to do HKT-BKK.

Im looking forward to Singapore. We can pick up some quality clothes that won't disintegrate on the 1st wash, I can drink he tap water, no touts will harass me, the taxis will be honest and best of all if I have a problem a cop will help me, not try and extort money from me. If I need to catch some rays, I have the magnificent hotel pool. The bottom line? I think Thailand has lost both its price advantage and cannot compete on quality of experience in the 4*+ market anymore.

I guess that explains why all the 4 and 5 star hotels here in CM are starving.

The Taksin dream of a high end tourist destination for Thailand was just a dream. The bubble has burst and I feel for anyone in the tourist trade. Just an observation from ground level. Thanks for your imput.

[Abrak]

I think this guy just explained why he is not coming to Thailand for Xmas. It's not his fault if the cost of the dinner is up 20% in baht terms since 2 years ago, it's not his fault if sterling collapsed, and it's not his fault if Thai government has done nothing to prevent the baht to be such a strong currency. Instead of blaming him for going somewhere else, you should blame who should take intelligent decisions to prevent this and doesn't do it.

Well I was not really blaming him for anything.

I would however like to blame you for a total failure to understand Thai economic policy. They have made absolutely heroic efforts to stop the currency appreciating. First of all the baht has not been strong - to repeat - on a trade weighted basis (meaning against a mixture of currencies) the baht is actually slightly lower than 2 years ago.

More specifically.

1) Thailand has increased its forex reserves by US$45bn over the past year (equivalent to 20% of GDP) in order to sterilize foreign investment flows caused by inflows of foreign capital by 1) a current account surplus equivalent to 9% of GDP and 2) from capital inflows. Forex as a % of GDP is now higher than in China!!

2) It has further issued US$50bn of BoT bonds to absorb excess baht in the money supply. As such it now stands with 20% of bank deposits sitting on the BoT balance sheet doing nothing (as opposed to being lent to the domestic economy). 17% of the total money supply. Again this figure now amounts to US$50bn.

To summarize in order to stop the baht appreciating the BoT has sold baht (bonds with an interest rate), accumulated baht cash (with no interest rate) and bought US$50bn of dollars (or other currencies) (inc futures.) So quite frankly if you dont see SHORTing baht to the tune of US$50bn as doing something to stop the currency appreciating, I would guess they would be kind of disappointed.

Apart from Korea and Malaysia, no other country comes close. And I know US$50bn is peanuts in the real world but for Thailand it is meaningful. I mean they only spent US$30bn defending the baht in 1997. So how much more should the 'intelligent' policy maker spend to 'short' the baht?

And here is US$30bn of BoT bond auctions (nothing to do with treasury - i.e. monetary not fiscal) in November until 22nd December.

http://www.bot.or.th/English/FinancialMark...e_BOTBonds.aspx

Edited December 15, 2009 by Abrak

[Brunus]

I think this guy just explained why he is not coming to Thailand for Xmas. It's not his fault if the cost of the dinner is up 20% in baht terms since 2 years ago, it's not his fault if sterling collapsed, and it's not his fault if Thai government has done nothing to prevent the baht to be such a strong currency. Instead of blaming him for going somewhere else, you should blame who should take intelligent decisions to prevent this and doesn't do it.

Well I was not really blaming him for anything.

I would however like to blame you for a total failure to understand Thai economic policy. They have made absolutely heroic efforts to stop the currency appreciating. First of all the baht has not been strong - to repeat - on a trade weighted basis (meaning against a mixture of currencies) the baht is actually slightly lower than 2 years ago.

More specifically.

1) Thailand has increased its forex reserves by US$45bn over the past year (equivalent to 20% of GDP) in order to sterilize foreign investment flows caused by inflows of foreign capital by 1) a current account surplus equivalent to 9% of GDP and 2) from capital inflows. Forex as a % of GDP is now higher than in China!!

2) It has further issued US$50bn of BoT bonds to absorb excess baht in the money supply. As such it now stands with 20% of bank deposits sitting on the BoT balance sheet doing nothing (as opposed to being lent to the domestic economy). 17% of the total money supply. Again this figure now amounts to US$50bn.

To summarize in order to stop the baht appreciating the BoT has sold baht (bonds with an interest rate), accumulated baht cash (with no interest rate) and bought US$50bn of dollars (or other currencies) (inc futures.) So quite frankly if you dont see SHORTing baht to the tune of US$50bn as doing something to stop the currency appreciating, I would guess they would be kind of disappointed.

Apart from Korea and Malaysia, no other country comes close. And I know US$50bn is peanuts in the real world but for Thailand it is meaningful. I mean they only spent US$30bn defending the baht in 1997. So how much more should the 'intelligent' policy maker spend to 'short' the baht?

And here is US$30bn of BoT bond auctions (nothing to do with treasury - i.e. monetary not fiscal) in November until 22nd December.

http://www.bot.or.th/English/FinancialMark...e_BOTBonds.aspx

I don't understand what you say but I believe you. I think you say that the government did what they could to keep the baht down, but this is impossible. Can you explain me in simple words how China can do it and why Thailand can't? So you are saying 1) Thailand has increased its forex reserves by US$45bn over the past year (equivalent to 20% of GDP) in order to sterilize foreign investment flows caused by inflows of foreign capital by 1) a current account surplus equivalent to 9% of GDP and 2) from capital inflows. Forex as a % of GDP is now higher than in China!! Means a lot of foreigner money coming to Thailand , right? How come, considering that foreigners can't own anything here? It's not a malicious question, just want to understand.

Do you think somebody can do something about tourism in Thailand?

[anon8]

this is probably not typical, but,

Estonia, Eastern Europe, regained independence only in 1991 but MASSIVE growth of economy in the past 5 years.. and many visitors to Thailand.

Not this year. Most of my friends who come every year are skipping. Simple, some have lost jobs, most are scared of loosing job. They have no clue about Thai politics, NONE, they know about airport disaster last year, everybody does since it was all over BBC and CNN, but they consider it one time thing, and they are probably right.

it is just really tough back there right now. Same goes for most of Scandinavia. in Oct 2008 for a period of 1 week there were real fears that SwedBank, largest bank in Sweden was about to collapse.

[anon8]

after reading posts here I want to repeat one thing:

it is NOT strong Thai baht (or weak Pound) that keeps tourists from coming. Thailand is still very, very cheap for most visitors.

it is NOT that people have discovered neighboring countrys to be more appealing.. Vietnam? Cambodia? Laos? People, please!! Have you been there? I mean, have you traveled in Vietnam lately and you really feel it is a nicer place in any, ANY way??

it is not the Reds, Yellows, Blues. 2 week holiday maker does not know about this stuff, it simply does not affect them. They know worlds troubled spots, and Thai is clearly not considered one of them..

[ding]

Thailand is too expensive now. I see western prices even in Khao Sarn Road now on asiarooms.com. So I am supposed to pay double for airfare and then western prices for a room? Nope, not us.

I used to go 3 or 4 times a year, btw.

[Abrak]

I don't understand what you say but I believe you. I think you say that the government did what they could to keep the baht down, but this is impossible. Can you explain me in simple words how China can do it and why Thailand can't? So you are saying 1) Thailand has increased its forex reserves by US$45bn over the past year (equivalent to 20% of GDP) in order to sterilize foreign investment flows caused by inflows of foreign capital by 1) a current account surplus equivalent to 9% of GDP and 2) from capital inflows. Forex as a % of GDP is now higher than in China!! Means a lot of foreigner money coming to Thailand , right? How come, considering that foreigners can't own anything here? It's not a malicious question, just want to understand.

Do you think somebody can do something about tourism in Thailand?

Well a lot of questions.

1) Well I would sort of disagree with the comment that Thailand 'did' what it could to keep the baht down when it is 'doing' what it can to keep the baht down. (If you wish to go into more detail you need to anaylize their forward positions against their bond positions - which is that they are trying to offset baht bond losses by gains on the 'equivalent' futures position by allowing a very slow appreciation of the baht against the dollar. If you look at the 'net gain', 'net loss' position it almost equalizes on a monthly basis. It is at the expense of the the non-sterilization reserves. (Also you dont have to be a genius to work out the implications of taking existing money supply onto the Central Bank's balance sheet.)

2) Anyway your question wasnt really about that. You asked 'essentially' why the carry trade cannot be used against China. Well the answer is very simple. China has capital controls that prevent you from going short dollar long RMB. There are difficult ways of doing it such as through RMB bonds but essentially it is not a viable hedge fund trade because of the lack of liquidity. Also forex controls in China leverage up returns in the dollar carry trade in smaller countries that are essentially pegged to the RMB.

3) You also ask why there are excess foreign capital inflows given that no foreigner can actually own land etc.. Well first there is a current account surplus of approximate US$20bn or 8.5% of GDP. Given Thailand has a huge C/S surplus (combined with a fairly low fiscal deficit) it naturally attracts foreign speculative capital which assume that the currency will appreciate relative to the US$ where an American economy has 1) a C/A deficit 2) a massive fiscal deficit and 3) a policy maker who has devoted his life work to the concept of devaluing the US$ in a deflationary environment - plus you have a Central Bank that is short US$50bn of baht - you are bound to get ever increasing speculative capital inflows. Of course the BoT is trying to manage exchange losses that its capital position will generate against the export led growth that is generated by an undervalued currency while the speculator simply wishes to generate a profit against the the Central Bank's forex losses. (A bit like in 1997, when the more the BoT propped up the currency, the more you simply bet against it.)

4) And BTW the dollar carry trade still looks exceptionally attractive. Next year inflation in Thailand will rise (BoT inflation report October) and inflation might hit 5% while consensus growth forecasts are 4.3% GDP growth. So it doesnt take a huge leap of imagination to guess that interest rates 'might' rise. Of course you could ease 'growth' fears by allowing the currency to depreciate. Still the dollar carry trade looks great because either interest rates will go up (further encouraging the trade) or the currency will appreciates so you simply generate a profit. Its all good.

As for Tourism, well that is too tricky for me.

(Many players are simply going short dollar and long Thai equities. At this point it looks stellar. The risk adjusted discount rate on Thai equities is about 10%. Compare that to US rates. If you think about it, the BoT has has 17% of the money supply on its balance sheet, which implies an undervalued currency or suppression of inherent inflation. At some point the baht must appreciate or money supply expand leading to an asset bubble (1/v = Marshallian K).)

Edited December 15, 2009 by Abrak

[mrukman]

MMMMM wonder if abrac is a thai working in a goverment office somewhere with his financial experise. lets see how many in here believe what the thais reasons are for the drop in tourists numbers.

let me give you mine

1 Fed up of being ripped off

2 fleeced of my hard earned cash as soon as i land in swampy

3 Hated by the majority of the locals

4 scammed at every opportunity

5 Double charged because im farrang

and finally i dont want to be involved in a gang shootout in patong and having to deal and fight your case against currupt bib, is it sinking in Abrac. I think these are some of the reasons your ship is sinking fast.

[anon8]

mrukman, in a word, no.

it takes few months to realize farangs are not loved. Another few to realize some of the smiles are fake, some more time and situations to realize EVERYTHING you thought you knew was crap, and another year to fully understand that, yes, as you walk by you are hated for no reason at all, other than race.

People come here for years, but only for few weeks at the time, they firmly believe they are loved by Thais. So this is in no way a reason for drop in tourism numbers, it just isn't.

by your numbers:

1 Fed up of being ripped off - No, they have no idea. And what is 'being ripped off' anyway? Tourist pay more than locals in most big tourist spots in the world. And with all the 'rip offs' Thailand is still dirt cheap. Don't think so? Go to London for a weekend! Cold? Stay a week in Singapore! I do every now and then and to me being 'ripped off' by BKK metered taxi driver is no big deal. MBK to Silom is 55b metered, 100b 'meter no work' So? I used to get out the cab, now I give 100b because it makes no difference, Oh, what about the princeple, you ask? I say this Thailand, it is amazing and a thousand free, fake smiles.

2 fleeced of my hard earned cash as soon as i land in swampy - Please see 1.

3 Hated by the majority of the locals - tourist never feel unwelcome here, 2-3 weeks is not enough. But the true feelings of locals towards a random farang is the only thing here that is truly disturbing. I can see where the hate comes from, years of being mistreated in a bar, yelled at 7-11, punching in 1-2 -call codes for illiterate customers, that does not make Thais love us. that and many other things. Still, if I am simply walking by and I sense a hatred, I feel I have not deserved. This hatred is THE only thing that gets to me.. enough that I need to be out of here part of the year. If only Malaysia was little less boring..

4 scammed at every opportunity - small 100 baht tuk tuk rounds? jewelry thing? Giant ponzy schemes?

5 Double charged because im farrang - most tourist take it as a local custom, even at farang price the cost is still discount discount. The moral aspect of it? There are no morals here.

No, none of this has large enough affect on tourism numbers. It is annoying to us, people who are tryin g to feel at home here, a very difficult if not impossible task

[bangkokrick]

Where do they get their figures from. I tried to book 6 rooms in Jomtien with great difficulty. All they hotels that I contacted are fully booked up for the foreseeable future. I did finally manage to get the bookings in a boutique hotel, but that was after spending a day on the Internet and half a day door knocking.

The theory and the actual somehow don't seem to equate.

Cheers, Rick

[Brunus]

I don't understand what you say but I believe you. I think you say that the government did what they could to keep the baht down, but this is impossible. Can you explain me in simple words how China can do it and why Thailand can't? So you are saying 1) Thailand has increased its forex reserves by US$45bn over the past year (equivalent to 20% of GDP) in order to sterilize foreign investment flows caused by inflows of foreign capital by 1) a current account surplus equivalent to 9% of GDP and 2) from capital inflows. Forex as a % of GDP is now higher than in China!! Means a lot of foreigner money coming to Thailand , right? How come, considering that foreigners can't own anything here? It's not a malicious question, just want to understand.

Do you think somebody can do something about tourism in Thailand?

Well a lot of questions.

1) Well I would sort of disagree with the comment that Thailand 'did' what it could to keep the baht down when it is 'doing' what it can to keep the baht down. (If you wish to go into more detail you need to anaylize their forward positions against their bond positions - which is that they are trying to offset baht bond losses by gains on the 'equivalent' futures position by allowing a very slow appreciation of the baht against the dollar. If you look at the 'net gain', 'net loss' position it almost equalizes on a monthly basis. It is at the expense of the the non-sterilization reserves. (Also you dont have to be a genius to work out the implications of taking existing money supply onto the Central Bank's balance sheet.)

2) Anyway your question wasnt really about that. You asked 'essentially' why the carry trade cannot be used against China. Well the answer is very simple. China has capital controls that prevent you from going short dollar long RMB. There are difficult ways of doing it such as through RMB bonds but essentially it is not a viable hedge fund trade because of the lack of liquidity. Also forex controls in China leverage up returns in the dollar carry trade in smaller countries that are essentially pegged to the RMB.

3) You also ask why there are excess foreign capital inflows given that no foreigner can actually own land etc.. Well first there is a current account surplus of approximate US$20bn or 8.5% of GDP. Given Thailand has a huge C/S surplus (combined with a fairly low fiscal deficit) it naturally attracts foreign speculative capital which assume that the currency will appreciate relative to the US$ where an American economy has 1) a C/A deficit 2) a massive fiscal deficit and 3) a policy maker who has devoted his life work to the concept of devaluing the US$ in a deflationary environment - plus you have a Central Bank that is short US$50bn of baht - you are bound to get ever increasing speculative capital inflows. Of course the BoT is trying to manage exchange losses that its capital position will generate against the export led growth that is generated by an undervalued currency while the speculator simply wishes to generate a profit against the the Central Bank's forex losses. (A bit like in 1997, when the more the BoT propped up the currency, the more you simply bet against it.)

4) And BTW the dollar carry trade still looks exceptionally attractive. Next year inflation in Thailand will rise (BoT inflation report October) and inflation might hit 5% while consensus growth forecasts are 4.3% GDP growth. So it doesnt take a huge leap of imagination to guess that interest rates 'might' rise. Of course you could ease 'growth' fears by allowing the currency to depreciate. Still the dollar carry trade looks great because either interest rates will go up (further encouraging the trade) or the currency will appreciates so you simply generate a profit. Its all good.

As for Tourism, well that is too tricky for me.

(Many players are simply going short dollar and long Thai equities. At this point it looks stellar. The risk adjusted discount rate on Thai equities is about 10%. Compare that to US rates. If you think about it, the BoT has has 17% of the money supply on its balance sheet, which implies an undervalued currency or suppression of inherent inflation. At some point the baht must appreciate or money supply expand leading to an asset bubble (1/v = Marshallian K).)

Thanks for your explanation. So the government is trying to keep the baht down now, but in the past they tried to allow an appreciation. Do you think this was a mistake? Or was that inevitable in order to avoid an asset bubble?

[Abrak]

Thanks for your explanation. So the government is trying to keep the baht down now, but in the past they tried to allow an appreciation. Do you think this was a mistake? Or was that inevitable in order to avoid an asset bubble?

Well the official line on sterilization policy is sort of along the lines of 'sterilization is an effective policy so long as the costs are less than the benefits of having a competitive currency.'

By competitive currency they generally mean relative to the RMB which in turn means relative to the US$. (Given that Malaysia, Korea even the Philippines are doing the same thing, you can also see they are trying to maintain competitiveness against all other regional exporters.) Obviously if they hadnt intervened and the currency was now say Bt29:US$1, Thailand would not have seen as strong an export led recovery.

Obviously the more they sterilize the more the costs.

To me their underlying argument is rather circular. It is easier to see this if you consider that 1997 policy was effectively 'to protect the peg until we run out of reserves at which point we will devalue.' Now if the BoT runs down its reserves from US$35bn to US$15bn in say 6 months, all that happens is that everybody increasingly bets against you until you devalue.

Now you are increasingly seeing the reverse. People can see that with 17% of money supply on the BoT balance sheet it is effectively suppressing a 17% baht appreciation or 17% inflation. In the last 6 months even Thai corporates have started betting against the BoT. They have increased their funding gap by US$10bn (they have hedged receivables through swaps) but are not hedging payables.

When you have a policy to prop something up or hold something down until you run out of strength, the usual reaction is to kick you in the balls.

[JR Texas]

This post is not directed at you Abrak, but to all those posters who believe that the global economic downturn and fluctuations in currency rates are the primary reasons for people not coming to Thailand.........

In the words of some of Texas' great philosophers.........BULLSHIT! (Yes, they are important factors, but something else is at play.)

All you have to do is search UN documents that track tourism. They show that some places are doing well now.......two are particularly relevant: Bali and Malaysia.

So, something else is at play..........I think that something else is a general feeling of being unwelcome in Thailand, itself related to a rising tide of xenophobia and supid beyond imagination visa rules.

One example (there are many):

Why in the world is the government enforcing the rule that you must have an outbound ticket prior to coming to Thailand?

That is nuts! Especially when you want to attract tourists who like to use Thailand as a hub for exploring Southeast Asia.

Yes, they do not always enforce it, but in the past it was almost never enforced......never an issue.

[sonderup]

this is probably not typical, but,

Estonia, Eastern Europe, regained independence only in 1991 but MASSIVE growth of economy in the past 5 years.. and many visitors to Thailand.

Not this year. Most of my friends who come every year are skipping. Simple, some have lost jobs, most are scared of loosing job. They have no clue about Thai politics, NONE, they know about airport disaster last year, everybody does since it was all over BBC and CNN, but they consider it one time thing, and they are probably right.

it is just really tough back there right now. Same goes for most of Scandinavia. in Oct 2008 for a period of 1 week there were real fears that SwedBank, largest bank in Sweden was about to collapse.

Sir, get your facts right before going public.

According to the latest figures the largest banks in Sweden are as follows (1-5)

1 SEB

2 Handelsbanken

3 Swedbank

4 Nordea

5 Danske Bank

Here a link to the documentation : Swedish bankers ass.

[bkkjames]

this is probably not typical, but,

Estonia, Eastern Europe, regained independence only in 1991 but MASSIVE growth of economy in the past 5 years.. and many visitors to Thailand.

Not this year. Most of my friends who come every year are skipping. Simple, some have lost jobs, most are scared of loosing job. They have no clue about Thai politics, NONE, they know about airport disaster last year, everybody does since it was all over BBC and CNN, but they consider it one time thing, and they are probably right.

it is just really tough back there right now. Same goes for most of Scandinavia. in Oct 2008 for a period of 1 week there were real fears that SwedBank, largest bank in Sweden was about to collapse.

Sir, get your facts right before going public.

According to the latest figures the largest banks in Sweden are as follows (1-5)

1 SEB

2 Handelsbanken

3 Swedbank

4 Nordea

5 Danske Bank

Here a link to the documentation : Swedish bankers ass.

Looking at your fancy chart I see the Swedbank was in fact largest in terms of employees.

[LaoPo]

Where do they get their figures from. I tried to book 6 rooms in Jomtien with great difficulty. All they hotels that I contacted are fully booked up for the foreseeable future. I did finally manage to get the bookings in a boutique hotel, but that was after spending a day on the Internet and half a day door knocking.

The theory and the actual somehow don't seem to equate.

Cheers, Rick

They're probably not full but have very limited staff.

What they do is close a number of floors and just rent out one or two floors with a limited number of rooms.

It's the same if people say all planes are fully booked but there are only a limited number available, much less than previously.

LaoPo

[Brunus]

When you have a policy to prop something up or hold something down until you run out of strength, the usual reaction is to kick you in the balls.

Understood. Thanks

[Abrak]

MMMMM wonder if abrac is a thai working in a goverment office somewhere with his financial experise. lets see how many in here believe what the thais reasons are for the drop in tourists numbers.

let me give you mine

1 Fed up of being ripped off

2 fleeced of my hard earned cash as soon as i land in swampy

3 Hated by the majority of the locals

4 scammed at every opportunity

5 Double charged because im farrang

and finally i dont want to be involved in a gang shootout in patong and having to deal and fight your case against currupt bib, is it sinking in Abrac. I think these are some of the reasons your ship is sinking fast.

Assuming you are from the UK, your rant about sinking ships, would appear to be coming from the decks of the Titanic.

[JulesMad]

My business dropped by a lot more than 34%

TAT??? What good are they? They just take your money and spend it on their own BS! I pay a lot for these licenses and all I get from them is more problems... For me it is just another mafia in Thailand....

[livinthailandos]

Abrak you are right about mrukman

1 Fed up of being ripped off ( then you must be pretty glubbale to be rip off then )

2 fleeced of my hard earned cash as soon as i land in swampy ( well you gave it to them did they have a gun pointed at your head )

3 Hated by the majority of the locals ( maybe if you quit bashing the thai's maybe they wouldn't hate you so much )

4 scammed at every opportunity ( again you must be pretty glubbale to fall for scams then )

other point would you losers quit comparing thailand to other countries like singapore or london or hong kong etc. If your going to put it in a comparsion then at least have the brains to compare it to vietnam, burma, cambodia, loas.

[LaoPo]

All you have to do is search UN documents that track tourism. They show that some places are doing well now.......two are particularly relevant: Bali and Malaysia.

Thanks for that reminder.

Some excerpts from a report by the UNWTO World Tourist Organization and the Regional Representation for Asia and the Pacific - May 2009

Summary Report on Tourism Performance in Asia and the Pacific

Thailand

The civil and political unrest in Thailand, which culminated in the temporary closure of Bangkok’s Suvarnabhumi International Airport in November, had serious repercussions not only on Thailand, but also across the Greater Mekong Area. Arrivals in Thailand, which had been growing by 13% in the first six months of the year, started to slide in August. The last quarter saw a 28% decline and the whole year of 2008 recorded a 5% decrease compared with 2007.

and:

Thailand

The first immediate measure, in December 2008, was when the international airport could not operate leaving at least 300,000 travelers in Bangkok and various big cities all over Thailand. A special amount of budget of 54 million US$ was allocated to cover costs of accommodation, meals and rental of tour coaches to the temporary airport, 300 kms from Bangkok which served as exit from the country for two weeks.

For hotel operators, business tax exemption will be effective for the year 2010. There will also be a reduction of 1.25 times of electricity usage guarantee for good recorded hotel operators. The approximate rate is based on the past 3 month record.

For all the airlines, there will be a reduction of 50 % of landing and parking fee at all airports under the supervision of the Department of Civil Aviation for scheduled flights and chartered flights until September 2009 and a reduction of 20 % of landing and parking fee at all airports under the supervision of Airport Authority of Thailand for scheduled flights until September 2009. A reduction of 50% will be for chartered flights at Chiang Mai Airport, Chiang Rai Airport, Hat Yai Airport and Don Muang Airport until October 2010.

To encourage more tourists to visit national destinations, a 50% discount has been approved to for entrance fees to all national parks for foreign and domestic tourists beginning from 16 February till 15 May 2009. 3 months visa fees have been waived for all types of tourists travelling to Thailand between 5 March and 5 June 2009.

Micro Finance or Micro Credit scheme was also issued, with the cooperation of all financial banks in Thailand and the Small and Medium Entrepreneur Banks. Lending period will be for two years with -3% of MLR (Median Low Rate) of interest, -1 % from cooperated banks and -2% from the budget allocated by the government. In order to reach those who are really affected by this economic downturn, tourism sectors are requested to be divided into four groups: Hotels, Restaurants, Tour Operator and others (tour coaches, river boats, gems industries, theme parks, spa, etc). Each group is chaired by one of the Presidents of tourism associations.

The President of Thailand Tourism Council chairs the group of diverse businesses. Each group has to first screen its members and non members who need to ask for this special loan. It has to be proved that their businesses are affected by the global economic downturn in 2009 and there was no any other previous debt occurred before the crisis.

A national launching project will be on 17 March 2009 in Bangkok during which all commercial banks and those concerned will open their booths for the soft loan project. A monitoring committee will be set up to follow up the best performances, transparency and efficiency of the Micro-Credit scheme.

http://www.unwto.org/asia/member/en/pdf/106_Australia.pdf May download slowly = 40 pages.

Note: we have to take into consideration that the info in the report is probably provided by Thai authorities and/or TATand that the ....

LaoPo

[caf]

Abrak you are right about mrukman

1 Fed up of being ripped off ( then you must be pretty glubbale to be rip off then )

2 fleeced of my hard earned cash as soon as i land in swampy ( well you gave it to them did they have a gun pointed at your head )

3 Hated by the majority of the locals ( maybe if you quit bashing the thai's maybe they wouldn't hate you so much )

4 scammed at every opportunity ( again you must be pretty glubbale to fall for scams then )

other point would you losers quit comparing thailand to other countries like singapore or london or hong kong etc. If your going to put it in a comparsion then at least have the brains to compare it to vietnam, burma, cambodia, loas.

I don't argue with Abrak's economic analysis but mrukman is entitled to his views on the non-economic factors that are also involved to some extent in tourism decline. I did not see his post as a rant but a contribution to the thread.

As I say Abrak has shown his expertise in explaining the economics of baht rate movement; but god forbid if we ever let the views and actions of bankers politicians and economists have full prominence.

Remember that during the great flood the Ark that saved the world was built by amateurs.

The Titanic, mentioned by Abrak, was built by professionals

Edited December 16, 2009 by caf

[geeky]

I wonder if this means it will be a good time to visit Thailand in January, or if I am about to jump into a pool of hungry piranhas.

cute, sexy piranhas ;-)

[JR Texas]

Thanks for pursuing that and posting data.........it is not the report I am talking about though. I posted that report earlier on another post and really do not have the time and energy to find it again.

Maybe another person can. Basically, the report showed that tourism was fine in Malaysia, northern Africa, among other places. It struck me as odd because Malaysia is next to Thailand.

One country is showing good tourism numbers............the other isn't. Both are being impacted by financial/economic factors. Why?

Some posters said it was a bias in the data due to the numbers of people from Singapore coming to Malaysia.

But Thailand is surrounded by several countries.......and the same bias could materialize........but it isn't. Why?

I am forced to conclude that something unusual is happening in Thailand that is independent of financial/economic factors.

What that is I have already made clear.

Of course, I have been wrong before and may be wrong about this.

[Jaybee2]

This post is not directed at you Abrak, but to all those posters who believe that the global economic downturn and fluctuations in currency rates are the primary reasons for people not coming to Thailand.........

In the words of some of Texas' great philosophers.........BULLSHIT! (Yes, they are important factors, but something else is at play.)

All you have to do is search UN documents that track tourism. They show that some places are doing well now.......two are particularly relevant: Bali and Malaysia.

So, something else is at play..........I think that something else is a general feeling of being unwelcome in Thailand, itself related to a rising tide of xenophobia and supid beyond imagination visa rules.

Agree completely. Friend of mine just had her first tour of LOS, mainly Phuket and Phi Phi. She said she did not feel any warmth in the smiles, that she felt the Thais were only after one thing - money. She said she felt like they were the predators and she was their prey. Contrast that with her take on Singapore - she liked it, and Tokyo - she loved it, loved the Japs, and felt they showed real hospitality to her, even though very few of them spoke any English.