You and your Thai Wife of 20 years.

[Namphonny]

I wonder if anyone has any views on the likely effect on the Baht/Sterling exchange rate if the predicted snap election in March materialises? How the election would turn out is anybody's guess at the moment but I wonder if the rate could go into free fall again if the chances of one or other of the parties suddenly increased. I don't want to start a poitical discussion, I am just concerned whether it might be a good idea to remove any spare Sterling now before the ship starts to sink. Anyone any opinion?

[prefabs]

No, I don't have an opinion. Bit deep at this time of year, isn't it? I worry about what makes you think of this at this time? Saturday Night before Christmas and this is all you have to think about?

I wouldn't bother about this if I were you, but I am sure you will find something else to worry about, just in case

[Namphonny]

I agree with whichschool about Xmas - I prefer stories with happy endings.

The problem is that the Baht/GBP rate is in no man's land at the moment and could go either way unlike a year ago when the only way was down. Difficult for someone with a lot of cash in UK banks.

[caf]

No, I don't have an opinion. Bit deep at this time of year, isn't it? I worry about what makes you think of this at this time? Saturday Night before Christmas and this is all you have to think about?

I wouldn't bother about this if I were you, but I am sure you will find something else to worry about, just in case

<deleted> to Xmas that religion sux and is a hoax.

I think it will stay steady until the election but if the Tories win it will go up as despite being useless theyre betting at running an economy then Labour, and will make essential spending cuts.

A Lib/Lab coalition in a hung parliament will finish the country and economy off for good, Labour truly havent got or had a clue about how to run an economy, and a downgrade of credit rating will occur.

House prices are still going up so i'd imagine Gordon thinks eveything is tickityboo.

The lib dems have said they will not be part of a coalition with labour. They said they would consider a coalition with the conservatives if there was a hung parliament.

[MarkyM3]

Labour are dead in the water imo, whether they go to the polls in March or May.

The recent PBR attempted to prop up their core vote by increasing public spending and benefits and hiking taxes instead. But it appears to have backfired as the opinion polls conducted soon afterwards showed Tories on 11+ point lead. There has been a lot of talk about the urgent need to cut public spending and the voters seem more convinced by that arguement. Doing this is likely to benefit sterling in the long run (overseas confidence in the currency, crediti ratings etc.).

Might be worth holding currency in some other denominations as well as sterling e.g Euros to hedge your bets though.

Sorry if that bored anyone!

[MiG16]

this is really not the place for discussions of UK politics and elections

but Im going to let this one slide on account of the exchange rate discussion.

moving it to business section, but reminding everyone to keep it down on the politics.

cheers

[thai3]

this is really not the place for discussions of UK politics and elections

but Im going to let this one slide on account of the exchange rate discussion.

moving it to business section, but reminding everyone to keep it down on the politics.

cheers

Seems a very odd thing to say as it will be largely political decisions which will affect the pound in the next few months, still this is Thai Visa I guess!

[churchill]

I would start to change sterling to baht / $us

perhaps you could also consider Sing $ , given the political - + , situation in Thailand .

[chiang mai]

The value of GBP/THB is determined mostly by the value of GBP/USD so that's the one to watch. If USD continues to weaken and fall against THB then so will GBP, unless of course markets think that the outcome of the election is hugely positive for Sterling, in which case GBP/USD may rise and as a result GBP/THB will rise also. For what it's worth, one banks long range forecast is showing GBP/USD continuing throughout 2010 at between 1.61 and 1.64. I reckon however that the UK may well lose it's top tier credit rating in 2010 and that almost certainly will cause the Pound to fall - the wild card remains the political situation in Thailand and of course, continuation of Thai economic growth. Good luck trying to figure it all out, it's not easy.

[Chunkton]

Gordon Brown and Co. have ground the UK down with the likes of Zimbabwe, it will crash hard sooner or later. It doesn't matter who wins the election, nether side will tell the public what actually needs to be done as they would never get elected by offering nothing but pain, blood sweat and tears. It is a different country to the Churchill era with an electorate of freeloaders.

If I were a Pom I would seriously think about deserting that sinking ship of lies and stupidity. Try to emigrate to Gods own country - Australia. Hopefully that idiot Rudd well get turfed out before he does even more damage. If not stay here in Thailand.

Singapore dollars look good, US and Aussie only on the right timing. Yeah.

[12DrinkMore]

Gordon Brown and Co. have ground the UK down with the likes of Zimbabwe, it will crash hard sooner or later. It doesn't matter who wins the election, nether side will tell the public what actually needs to be done as they would never get elected by offering nothing but pain, blood sweat and tears. It is a different country to the Churchill era with an electorate of freeloaders.

If I were a Pom I would seriously think about deserting that sinking ship of lies and stupidity. Try to emigrate to Gods own country - Australia. Hopefully that idiot Rudd well get turfed out before he does even more damage. If not stay here in Thailand.

Singapore dollars look good, US and Aussie only on the right timing. Yeah.

As a Brit I would have to fundamentally take offense. But you are 100% correct. And you also need to add in "utter arrogance" to the "lies and stupidity". I deserted those shores a long time ago.

Look at a mix of currencies, THB as you live here, CHF as the Swiss are trying hard to keep their currency from appreciating against the EUR, so the CHF is unlikely to fall, but EUR in Ireland for example will give you 3.5 to 4.5% interest. And, of course, the AUD, where you can get up to 7% (subject to a withholding tax of 10% for foreigners).

So at the moment the AUD is looking very good for income, but there is always the currency risk if the speculative carry trade builds up too much and then unwinds quickly. However, long term I believe in Asia and Aussieland is economically firmly planted in Asia.

As Chunkton says, the UK finances are in dire straits, but how that all plays out for the GBP is by no means certain. If the UK is forced to pay more interest on debt issuance then the GBP could strengthen, provided that the BoE is not the "debt purchaser of last resort", a function which it is currently performing. If this form of "Quantitative Easing" persists, then the GBP has only one way to go, and that is down further.

[MarkyM3]

The value of GBP/THB is determined mostly by the value of GBP/USD so that's the one to watch. If USD continues to weaken and fall against THB then so will GBP, unless of course markets think that the outcome of the election is hugely positive for Sterling, in which case GBP/USD may rise and as a result GBP/THB will rise also. For what it's worth, one banks long range forecast is showing GBP/USD continuing throughout 2010 at between 1.61 and 1.64. I reckon however that the UK may well lose it's top tier credit rating in 2010 and that almost certainly will cause the Pound to fall - the wild card remains the political situation in Thailand and of course, continuation of Thai economic growth. Good luck trying to figure it all out, it's not easy.

FWIW, losing the AAA credit rating would be largely symbolic as it's already been factored in by the debt markets for some time. Cost of government debt is same as a number of AA-rated economies now e.g. Greece, Ireland.

[neil324]

http://www.williamhillmedia.com/index_temp....asp?file=12306

[MAJIC]

Firstly your fear of a General Election in March will in my view not happen,it will more likely be towards the end of May beginning of June as Tradition has dictated in the past,when the weather is warmer,thus ensuring a larger turnout at the Polls.

Secondly at this moment in time the Pound is showing signs of an upturn,whilst the Euro is going down even though Pundits are agreeing the worst of the Recession is over.

Thirdly if you have lived in Thailand for many years you willl have noticed the Baht is very strong during peak tourist months usually early November to the end of February,so if past years are anything to go by a weakening of the Baht can be expected around this period.

I wouldnt be at all surprised if the BOT props up the Baht during high Tourist months so the exchange rate is low for those exchanging currencies whilst holidaying in Thailand.

Usually bad news on the internal front affects a Countries economy (except Thailand) a win for the Conservatives in the UK as expected would more than likely be good news for the UK economy. But there could also be a coalision Govenment if some predictions are right.

Personally I would not write off Sterling just yet.