Pound Starting To Stenghen.

[MJP]

From what I can tell it seems that today's fall was caused by two things, the first was news that mortgage approvals fell in January by slightly more than expected, but for goodness sake, January was also one of the worst on record for bad weather so it shouldn't come as any surprise that folks weren't out buying houses when it was -20 and the entire country was covered in two feet of snow! The second reason was an article in the Times on Sunday which included an opinion poll showing that the Tory lead had been reduced to 2%. See it doesn't take a lot for the Forex market to get nervous and for traders to start pressing the sell button.

You missed another very key issue

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business...dp-1904064.html

January is the most important month of the year for income tax and corporation tax. As a result the Government is usually in surplus – even last year it was in surplus. This year it isn't: there was a deficit of more than £4bn. That means that for the financial year as a whole there is virtually no chance of beating the Treasury's £178bn borrowing estimate

Doesn't matter, but I didn't write that.

Yes, that was a big one. This stuff about snow and bad weather might play to the masses but I'm pretty sure the markets see through it.

Borrowing is out of control. It's coming to an end surely, with a gilts strike, or they just trash the currency by contnuing QE and buying their own gilts. Either way the UK is a basket case beyond all others.

Edited March 1, 2010 by MJP

[eek]

The only visible exports from the the UK are yobs, pissheads, tattooed <deleted>, hooligans and fat women, who think they are blokes hanging around bars.

Just a small quote from a massive rant.

Is the financial forum really the place for your bigoted viewpoints? I come here to read advice and opinions, not wade through all that c...

Edited March 1, 2010 by eek

[MJP]

The Spectator

Friday, 24th October 2008

Sterling plummets on the back of Brown's debt-fuelled economy

Fraser Nelson 3:11pm

The sterling crash has now begun in earnest. The pound has today (today!) fallen 9% against the Yen and is off 4% against the dollar to a lowly $1.56 with forecasts of $1.40 or lower next year. Against any other currency you may mention, it’s now plunging. The proximate cause is news that the UK economy is shrinking far faster than expected, and there's talk about a 0.75-point interest rate cut - sooner rather than later. But on a wider prospective, this is the markets commenting more articulately than the Tories on Gordon Brown’s “scorched earth” economic policy. It is becoming clearer that Britain is perhaps in the worst position of any developed economy in this crisis. Markets are not fooled by Brown’s mendacious claims to have reduced the national debt to 37% of GDP, and will be alarmed to see a Prime Minister use debt concealment methods that would shame the most spivvy merchant bank. Official national debt was 43% before the bank bailouts of two weeks ago, and will be well over 100% if one counts PFI, B&B and the pension liabilities.

Debt is how Brown governed. It was his dope. It’s the key to understanding the UK economy in the last decade and the reckless nature of Brown’s short-termist policies. Debts are steroids to unscrupulous policymakers as debt-fuelled asset bubbles give a fake feeling of prosperity, which usually translates into votes for the ruling party. That’s why Britain started this credit crunch with the largest household debt ever seen in any G7 country. Brown gambled the UK economy on a hunch that interest rates would stay low. It has failed, and now the UK public finances are going to hel_l in a handcart. We’re being led by a Prime Minister who ran up a 3% deficit in the boom years and we’re now looking a deficit hitting 7% by the 2010 general election – territory not seen since the IMF bailout. There is a serious prospect that Brown will try and inflate his way out of this debt problem, a prospect which terrifies currency dealers. I have heard serious people talking about parity with the dollar.

[mommysboy]

That's old news!

No it's mostly about shorters really IMHO. US is a reserve currency GBP isn't that's the only dynamic at play recently.

MOST DEVELOPED ECONOMIES REALLY ARE ALL IN THE SAME BOAT!

[MJP]

You know, I'm not sure whether the markets are more concerned with a hung parliament, rather Brown being re-elected and worse still . . . Ed Balls becoming Chancellor.

Was there not some out cry from the IMF or World Bank about Balls being made Chancellor some time back?

'NICE' - Non Inflationary Continuous Expansion, was I believe the cack spouted by Balls when he was senior advisor to Brown/Treasury between 1999 and 2004.

[MJP]

That's old news!

No it's mostly about shorters really IMHO. US is a reserve currency GBP isn't that's the only dynamic at play recently.

MOST DEVELOPED ECONOMIES REALLY ARE ALL IN THE SAME BOAT!

Yes they are. Seems the UK is to be the one to walk the plank though.

[12DrinkMore]

The only visible exports from the the UK are yobs, pissheads, tattooed <deleted>, hooligans and fat women, who think they are blokes hanging around bars.

Just a small quote from a massive rant.

Is the financial forum really the place for your bigoted viewpoints? I come here to read advice and opinions, not wade through all that c...

A bigot is a person obstinately or intolerantly devoted to his or her own opinions and prejudices

If you can come up with some positive viewpoints on the UK and its economy, particularly regarding the GBP, then please do so. I am eager to hear them as I still have a few UK based assets. I am not, according to the above definition, bigoted. I am ready to change my opinion if you can provide me with some reasons to do so.

But anyway you have read my opinion, and that is one of your objectives. There are now three options,

1. Argue with it

2. Put me on your "ignore" list

3. Ignore me anyway

I doubt whether you are interested in my advice, but here it is.

Move out of any UK based assets. AUD is offering up to 7% interest and their economy does not have the problems that the UK has.

I have just re-read my post. The GBP has now crept above 49 after being 54 or so last week and dropping to below 49 today. Obviously things are getting better by the minute.

:D

[waza]

Britain's pound fell more than 2 percent to its biggest one-day drop in a year on worries about a coming general election and its impact on the G7 nation's economy.......An opinion poll published on Sunday suggested Britain's ruling Labour Party could remain the biggest party after this year's general election but without a majority in parliament.The prospect of a hung parliament has rattled investors who fear that decision-making would become stymied, undermining a fragile UK recovery.

[chiang mai]

It looks like the loss on the day is only around 1.5 cents, not too bad really, compared to the low point.

[MJP]

5 reasons why GBP is getting pounded

[MJP]

John Authers The Short View FT

[MJP]

Forbes

"Markets have focused on debt and deficit levels with sterling increasingly trading like an emerging market currency," said Hans Redeker, global head of FX strategy at BNP Paribas ( BNPQY.PK - news - people ).

[MJP]

Saxo Bank's view

Nick Beecroft, Senior FX Consultant at Saxo Bank, comments on sterling’s collapse:

Monday morning we have witnessed what can justifiably called the beginnings of Sterling’s collapse. So long as the markets could harbour some hope that the next government, in only 3 months time, would be a fiscally prudent, business-friendly Conservative one that would act swiftly to reduce the UK deficit and borrowing mountains, the pound was able to just about hold its own against the Euro, ( which is itself entering a possibly fatally damaging period), but today the dam_n burst and it could not even do that, let alone against the almighty dollar-as of now perceived as the ‘best, worst’ major safe haven currency. This weekend’s UK election polls-predicting a Labour Government, ruling over a ‘hung’ parliament, put paid to that dream.

[jerseyjim]

Help please! I am about to buy a house that we have been renting up in CM. Can any finance experts advise whether I should bite the bullet and buy now, or continue to rent for the next few months and delay the purchase, perhaps until after the UK election? I would be sending the money in Sterling. Property is Baht 4.25m. Thank you in anticipation.

[MJP]

[rolypie]

Strengthen?????

Baht exchanging at 46.7 this morning

[MJP]

Have you legally agreed to the purchase? 4.25m is a lot for a house up there, must be a big one.

Don't know. It's too big a decision for me.

Help please! I am about to buy a house that we have been renting up in CM. Can any finance experts advise whether I should bite the bullet and buy now, or continue to rent for the next few months and delay the purchase, perhaps until after the UK election? I would be sending the money in Sterling. Property is Baht 4.25m. Thank you in anticipation.

[chiang mai]

Help please! I am about to buy a house that we have been renting up in CM. Can any finance experts advise whether I should bite the bullet and buy now, or continue to rent for the next few months and delay the purchase, perhaps until after the UK election? I would be sending the money in Sterling. Property is Baht 4.25m. Thank you in anticipation.

I'm hard pressed to see GBP/THB get any stronger than it is at present in the short to medium term, as you're aware it is falling at present and it may well continue to do so for some time. Having said that, if you make your exchange now and buy your house you will likely show a paper profit on the exchange rate in a few months time as GBP/USD reaches its low point. But if you're buying your home as a home and as a place to live for many years, by the time you go to sell the exchange rates will likely be very different and it's possible that in say five or ten years time, you will show a loss on the exchange rate - do you really care about that though, if you're buying a home and not an investment, buy the place, live in it and be happy.

[chiang mai]

Have you legally agreed to the purchase? 4.25m is a lot for a house up there, must be a big one.

Don't know. It's too big a decision for me.

Help please! I am about to buy a house that we have been renting up in CM. Can any finance experts advise whether I should bite the bullet and buy now, or continue to rent for the next few months and delay the purchase, perhaps until after the UK election? I would be sending the money in Sterling. Property is Baht 4.25m. Thank you in anticipation.

I hadn't noticed MJP, maybe you've missed it also, but USD/THB is falling, around 1% in three days, is there no safe haven!

[MJP]

Yes, run a few posts back, I mentioned USD was down 0.5%.

Use that spreadsheet, do that budget and stick to it.

This could be that paradigm shift West to East.

Have you legally agreed to the purchase? 4.25m is a lot for a house up there, must be a big one.

Don't know. It's too big a decision for me.

Help please! I am about to buy a house that we have been renting up in CM. Can any finance experts advise whether I should bite the bullet and buy now, or continue to rent for the next few months and delay the purchase, perhaps until after the UK election? I would be sending the money in Sterling. Property is Baht 4.25m. Thank you in anticipation.

I hadn't noticed MJP, maybe you've missed it also, but USD/THB is falling, around 1% in three days, is there no safe haven!

[neil324]

Yes, run a few posts back, I mentioned USD was down 0.5%.

Use that spreadsheet, do that budget and stick to it.

This could be that paradigm shift West to East.

Have you legally agreed to the purchase? 4.25m is a lot for a house up there, must be a big one.

Don't know. It's too big a decision for me.

Help please! I am about to buy a house that we have been renting up in CM. Can any finance experts advise whether I should bite the bullet and buy now, or continue to rent for the next few months and delay the purchase, perhaps until after the UK election? I would be sending the money in Sterling. Property is Baht 4.25m. Thank you in anticipation.

I hadn't noticed MJP, maybe you've missed it also, but USD/THB is falling, around 1% in three days, is there no safe haven!

I agree about the shift, but Thailand better be prepared for the big drop in tourism.

[MJP]

There's another thread as bothersome. Thai inflation increasing.

Incoming!!!

[Chaimai]

I think that this thread, given it's title, should be shelved for a few months.

Care: Halifax shares may dip because they will be losing £9.50 per month from me for a while.

[chiang mai]

The OP should ignore flame posts and folks who talk out of their arse!

[Naam]

have a heart and show some mercy MJP!

[MJP]

[ChiangMaiFun]

am I missing something?

[chiang mai]

am I missing something?

The chart implies that you are now getting an ever decreasing number Zimbabwean Dollars for your Pound.

[ChiangMaiFun]

am I missing something?

The chart implies that you are now getting an ever decreasing number Zimbabwean Dollars for your Pound.

ah that explains it... useful...

[chiang mai]

am I missing something?

The chart implies that you are now getting an ever decreasing number Zimbabwean Dollars for your Pound.

ah that explains it... useful...

Only if you were thinking about taking a trip to Zimbabwe, planning a holiday were you?