Thai-US Relations Are Drifting Apart

[Lancelot]

I've heard it said that "Countries have no permanent friends; only permanent issues..."

A big part of the "glue" that caused Thailand and the USA to be such good buddies was their mutual distrust/fear of world communisim. Post Vietnam War and the fact that the Chinese are more interested in business (I think they will flex their muscles in the future though) has kind of deprived the US and Thailand of a mutual enemy.

Time will tell

[LaoPo]

Never seen so many China economists and specialists in one topic, one even better than the other, knowing exactly how to steer and develop a country with 1,3 billion people. A country which was locked to the outer world for so long and opened up a mere 3 decades ago.

Surprising so many here made a study of China.

And all that in a topic about Thai-US relations are drifting apart.

Amazing.

LaoPo

[Thai at Heart]

Never seen so many China economists and specialists in one topic, one even better than the other, knowing exactly how to steer and develop a country with 1,3 billion people. A country which was locked to the outer world for so long and opened up a mere 3 decades ago.

Surprising so many here made a study of China.

And all that in a topic about Thai-US relations are drifting apart.

Amazing.

LaoPo

Not to be glib, but of the 3 decades that it has been open, some have been there for most of them and learnt something. An individual something doesn't make much, but through shared experience, a decent consensus can be formed. If Thailand is growing away from the USA, where is it going, because it doesn't appear to have many natural allies anywhere nearby, either societally or religiously.

[animatic]

Wait, wasn't the communist take over in China in only 1949...

Prior to that, in modern times, when did it 'close to the rest of the world?'

It was no picnic and hard slogging to do business there, but prior to 1949 it did happen.

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20th Century Chinese History Timeline, Encasulated

1890s China is being slowly partitioned by foreign powers.

At a time when China desperately needs reform, the Qing dynasty government of Empress Dowager Cixi

offers stubborn conservatism. The Boxer Rebellion, with the stated aim of ‘overthrowing the Qing

and destroying foreigners’ claims that its followers are bulletproof.

1899 The Boxers are defeated by the Qing,

but Cixi decides they might be useful to her,

and sets them the task of killing all the foreigners in China.

1900 An international force arrives in Beijing and routs the Boxers who have besieged the foreign legation.

Cixi and the Emperor escape by disguising themselves as peasants.

20th Century Chinese History Landmarks – Fall of the Qing

1912 The Qing dynasty never really recovered from the humiliations of 1900 and finally collapses in 1912.

Sun Yatsen, who has spent decades travelling the world to raise funds and campaign against the Qing,

founds the Kuomintang (Nationalist Party) and takes control of the new Republican government.

In an effort to avert civil war he offers the Presidency to Yuan Shikai, former head of the Qing armies,

and warlord in control of Northern China.

1913 Yuan Shikai, who clearly has ambitions to found a new dynasty, dissolves the new Republican government

and sends Sun Yatsen into exile once again.

1916 Yuan Shikai’s sudden death sends Northern China into civil war,

while Sun Yatsen returns to take control of a Kuomintang government in South China.

1921 The CCP is formed.

Early members include Mao Zedong, Zhou Enlai and Li Dazhao, a Beijing University librarian.

At the behest of the Soviet Union, they join the KMT and fight the Northern warlords.

1925 Sun Yatsen dies. Chiang Kaishek is now in control of the KMT.

1927 After jointly defeating the Northern warlords, the CCP organise a strike against Chiang and the KMT.

They are brutally suppressed, around 5,000 people are killed, including Yang Kaihui, Mao’s second wife,

and Li Dazhao, who is executed by slow strangulation.

1932 Japan invades Manchuria (Northern China)

1934 The Long March – encircled and outnumbered, the Communists must fight or flee.

They flee, marching almost 10,000km and crossing more than a dozen mountain ranges.

Many die, but the succeed in regrouping and establishing a base in Yan’an, Sha’anxi.

1936 Chiang said that ‘The Japanese are a disease of the skin, the Communists are a disease of the heart’

and wants to focus on defeating the Communists first. His General Zhang Xueliang disagreed and kidnapped him,

forcing him to agree to a United Front with the Communists against the Japanese.

1937 The Sino-Japanese War starts. In an event known as the Rape of Nanjing, Japanese troops rape,

mutilate, torture and kill at least 200,000 civilians.

1937 – 45 The United Front ends when Chiang stops distributing US arms to the Communists.

During the war the KMT retreat westwards while the CCP retreat to the countryside, (?)

away from the lines of transport and communication both the Japanese and the KMT rely on.

1945 The Japanese surrender.

The CCP likes to underestimate the role of the KMT in the Japanese defeat, and exaggerate its own.

1945 – 49 By the end of WW2 the KMT had bankrupted China

whilst the CCP had built themselves a strong, national following from their countryside bases.

20th Century Chinese History Landmarks – Foundation of the PRC

1949 In 1949 Mao took Beijing and declared the foundation of the People’s Republic of China.

1949 – 1956 Generally seen as the ‘good years’ of Chinese socialism.

Land is redistributed to peasants and the economy grows.

1956 The Hundred Flowers Campaign encourages intellectuals to give their opinions about the government.

Many that do are sent straight to jail.

1958 – 60 The Great Leap Forward, an attempt to boost production through re-redistribution of land

(into enormous communes) and millions of backyard furnaces. The result was two failed harvests

and millions of deaths from starvation.

20th Century Chinese History Landmarks – The Cultural Revolution

1966 After a few years away from power, discredited by the Great Leap Forward,

Mao starts the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution. The Cultural Revolution is a time of utter chaos

where university students (and later, even younger students) formed into bands of ‘Red Guards’

and went round destroying anything redolent of the West, capitalism, religion or tradition.

Mao’s rivals within the Party were purged, thousands of lives were ruined,

the health and education system collapsed, and most of China’s cultural heritage was destroyed.

1972 – The Lin Biao incident sees the death of Mao’s greatest ally and propagandist, Lin Biao.

Historians speculate that he may have attempted a coup against Mao.

1976 – The chaos of the cultural revolution ends with the death of Mao.

Hua Guofeng takes over, but has no real powerbase.

1978 – Deng Xiaoping ousts Hua Guofeng and, for the almost the first time in Chinese history,

allows his predecessor a relatively peaceful retirement.

20th Century Chinese History Landmarks – Reform & Opening

1980 – Deng begins the policies of ‘reform and opening up’ which see China open up its economy

and (to a much lesser degree) political life.

1989 – Violent suppression of Tiananmen Square protests dents hopes for further political reform

and tarnishes China’s international image, but has little long term effect on economic progress.

Jiang Zemin becomes leader, some speculate he gets the leadership because of his firm ideological stance

and successful handling of student protests in Shanghai.

1995 – Work begins on the Three Gorges Dam.

1997 – Deng dies, Hong Kong returns to China.

2001 – China is admitted to the World Trade Organisation and bids successfully for the 2008 Olympics.

2002 Jiang Zemin hands the premiership over to Hu Jintao.

2003 – The SARS outbreak is the first major crisis of Hu Jintao’s premiership.

After initially attempting to cover up the problem, China’s response is robust.

2003 – Present. China’s economy continues to grow at around 10% a year,

some economists expect it to overtake the USA by 2020.

Government efforts to cut corruption have some effect, although some allege they

are being used to settle political feuds. Human rights remain a major concern for foreign NGOs,

but foreign governments and business increasingly overlook such issues in the charge to

make money in China.

------------------------------------

Of course this leaves out the visit by Nixon and the beginnings of openings back in the early 70's

the widening of economic ties and investments and other West / China moves well before,

Deng opened the floodgates.

Edited February 2, 2010 by animatic

[Thai at Heart]

Of course this leaves out the visit by Nixon and the beginins of openings back in the early 70's

the widening of economic ties and investments and other western / China moves well befor,

Deng opened the floodgates.

Sorry to cut it all short in your reply, but you are correct.

China dipped its toe here and there for a very long time. Deng opened the floodgates, and long may his economic and eventually political legacy (not forgetting the Tiananmen disgrace) continue.

[toybits]

Interesting that you should mention Nixon. Before being elected as President of the USofA, he served as an ambassador to the People's Republic of China. As president, he wanted to warm up Sino-American Relations. One of his advisers conjured a brilliant idea. The USofA was going to acknowledge China's departure from that notorious club of opium producers. This was done by popularizing the term Golden Triangle by US Asst. Secretary of State Marshall Green. http://www.geopium.org/cji.html

So in effect, the US of A was say that China was now a good dog - while Thailand, Burma and Laos were still bad dogs.

Nice to have friends like that.

Wait, wasn't the communist take over in China in only 1949...

Prior to that, in modern times, when did it 'close to the rest of the world?'

It was no picnic and hard slogging to do business there, but prior to 1949 it did happen.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

<cut>

Of course this leaves out the visit by Nixon and the beginnings of openings back in the early 70's

the widening of economic ties and investments and other West / China moves well before,

Deng opened the floodgates.

[Thai at Heart]

Interesting that you should mention Nixon. Before being elected as President of the USofA, he served as an ambassador to the People's Republic of China. As president, he wanted to warm up Sino-American Relations. One of his advisers conjured a brilliant idea. The USofA was going to acknowledge China's departure from that notorious club of opium producers. This was done by popularizing the term Golden Triangle by US Asst. Secretary of State Marshall Green. http://www.geopium.org/cji.html

So in effect, the US of A was say that China was now a good dog - while Thailand, Burma and Laos were still bad dogs.

Nice to have friends like that.

Wait, wasn't the communist take over in China in only 1949...

Prior to that, in modern times, when did it 'close to the rest of the world?'

It was no picnic and hard slogging to do business there, but prior to 1949 it did happen.

The nigger in the woodpile is actually Burma. If someone wants to control drugs in the region, that is the place to start

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

<cut>

Of course this leaves out the visit by Nixon and the beginnings of openings back in the early 70's

the widening of economic ties and investments and other West / China moves well before,

Deng opened the floodgates.

Didn't know that part of Nixon's plan to become friends with China was attached to a drugs policy. If true, very interesting.

I lived in South Western China (Yunnan) for a couple of years, about 10 years ago and have been back on business many times, and to be honest, the level of intravenous drug taking was so obvious as to be the norm.

But it was also very apparent that the central government in Beijing could not control anything down there. It was as far from Beijing as Istanbul is from London and the people did not feel any loyalty to Beijing at all.

We reside/live in a country where regional pride exists from Bangkok to Chiangmai to Khon Kaen to Sri Tammarat.

In China the scale is expanded 10 times. It astonishes me that the central govt has any say in some of these remote places.

But then being the law keeper in those places is a two way street.....

The nigger in the woodpile is actually Burma. Someone needs to sort it out.

Edited February 2, 2010 by Thai at Heart

[geriatrickid]

I was surprised to read one comment that Thailand had been caring for the Hmong. Please note that the costs of care were underwritten by international aid agencies, with the largest contributor being the USA. The US still provides almost a quarter of the UN's operating budget. One would think that the "great" economies as alluded to in here, Russia, and China would be picking up more of these costs. Therein lies the reality. China is not the powerhouse it is proclaimed to be. It can't be, for the simple reason that its population and the costs expended to keep that population under control, fed and housed, hold it back.

I don't know how many people have been in China, but once you get out of the big cities and into the rural areas, the poverty is visible. The lack of technology and modern conveniences is evident too. True, even if only 40% of the Chinese population makes it to developed world status, a number greater than the US population, the other 60% will do what populations where the gap between have and have nots have always done, worldwide; They will revolt.

The only thing China can do now is hunt for low cost resources to sustain itself as it tries to get its population predicament in order. Thailand needs the west and especially the USA. Look at where Thailand's food is exported. Thailand's big agro competitors are China and Vietnam. Although we can ridicule Thais at times, I have more confidence in the quality of food on my plate that comes from Thailand. The likelihood of toxic dyes put into the fish (e.g. Vietnam) or chemical adulterants in the food (e.g. China) is more manageable in Thailand. Unfortunately, big processors that source food for use in industrial applications (e.g. packaged foods) will pick the low cost supplier. China has been eroding Thailand's market share. Sorry, but Thailand gets fairer treatment from western countries than it does from its Asian brothers and sisters.

[Thai at Heart]

I was surprised to read one comment that Thailand had been caring for the Hmong. Please note that the costs of care were underwritten by international aid agencies, with the largest contributor being the USA. The US still provides almost a quarter of the UN's operating budget. One would think that the "great" economies as alluded to in here, Russia, and China would be picking up more of these costs. Therein lies the reality. China is not the powerhouse it is proclaimed to be. It can't be, for the simple reason that its population and the costs expended to keep that population under control, fed and housed, hold it back.

I don't know how many people have been in China, but once you get out of the big cities and into the rural areas, the poverty is visible. The lack of technology and modern conveniences is evident too. True, even if only 40% of the Chinese population makes it to developed world status, a number greater than the US population, the other 60% will do what populations where the gap between have and have nots have always done, worldwide; They will revolt.

The only thing China can do now is hunt for low cost resources to sustain itself as it tries to get its population predicament in order. Thailand needs the west and especially the USA. Look at where Thailand's food is exported. Thailand's big agro competitors are China and Vietnam. Although we can ridicule Thais at times, I have more confidence in the quality of food on my plate that comes from Thailand. The likelihood of toxic dyes put into the fish (e.g. Vietnam) or chemical adulterants in the food (e.g. China) is more manageable in Thailand. Unfortunately, big processors that source food for use in industrial applications (e.g. packaged foods) will pick the low cost supplier. China has been eroding Thailand's market share. Sorry, but Thailand gets fairer treatment from western countries than it does from its Asian brothers and sisters.

I know I am not meant to copy such long messages, but what you have alluded to, is such an important issue in China.

When we think of rural Kansas, or Yorkshire or Sicily, these places are 100 years ahead in government investment, and governmental help than anywhere in rural (100km from any major city) China.

China will change, and I hate to say it, but so should Thailand 45 years ago. There is no excuse for the pitiful results in Thai schools that have been going on for far too long.

I have been from North to South to East and West of China to outside the main cities it is an absoluse S__t hole. Some of the people are great, but there is an element in some that I see in some in Thailand, which is to say that some want to tell me:

"See how clever we are, we s**t in a hole", bet you don't do that at home.

Their ignorance is what allows the CPC to survive and a business place based on ignorance of your customer won't last long.

[animatic]

Been Shanghai to Guanchau China, over land and spent several days in each big hub.

I think I got a decent overview of the situation.

[toybits]

One thing about the drug trade is that everyone's hands are dirty - even that of the US. It is just the spin people put on things that makes one or another country appear to have dirtier hands. It also helps to have a media outlet that will print articles that heap scorn on other countries.

Didn't know that part of Nixon's plan to become friends with China was attached to a drugs policy. If true, very interesting.

I lived in South Western China (Yunnan) for a couple of years, about 10 years ago and have been back on business many times, and to be honest, the level of intravenous drug taking was so obvious as to be the norm.

But it was also very apparent that the central government in Beijing could not control anything down there. It was as far from Beijing as Istanbul is from London and the people did not feel any loyalty to Beijing at all.

We reside/live in a country where regional pride exists from Bangkok to Chiangmai to Khon Kaen to Sri Tammarat.

In China the scale is expanded 10 times. It astonishes me that the central govt has any say in some of these remote places.

But then being the law keeper in those places is a two way street.....

The nigger in the woodpile is actually Burma. Someone needs to sort it out.

[ding]

In 2003, the US Congress even allocated a little acknowledged one million dollars to promote democracy in Thailand, because of Thaksin's infamous judicial killings of drug suspects and muddling with freedom of expression.

Does he mean, "extra-judicial killing" and "meddling"?

Yeah, the US can't outsource all of its labor, or move all it's factories to Mexico or China. So US politicos are big supporters of in-sourcing labor. It's established practice to let illegal Mexicans in and add to the 22% real unemployment rate. Don't expect Ambassador Clinton to side with Thais ousting any exploitable cheap labor either.

edit to add; Follow the money, it's always about money and power.

Edited February 3, 2010 by ding

[petebkk]

Score another one for me for pointing this out awhile back on the Abhisit human rights thread.

I told you the current Thai government was not particularly well regarded by several foreign governments. Some of the bad rep is attributable to the lingering fallout from the airport seizures (doesn't matter if he was not responsible, it still attaches to Thailand), followed up by the treatment of Burmese refugees and now the Hmong. Throw in the increased number of complaints from nationals and I trust people will understand why the Abhisit regime will not be receiving valentines cards from many western countries this year.

How about this.. Thailand will accept one illegal immigrant freshly caught crossing into Texas for every two Hmongs and one Burmese that the US will accept. Furthermore, the US must promise to take care of these three refugees well, meaning not placing them in a ghetto or in an unfriendly part of town where they will be killed by skinheads and KKK brothers (or worse yet, forcibly converted into some intolerant, although originally compassionate, religion in return for sustenance), Thailand will look into granting the Mexican a soft loan to open a cantina in Bangkok. We surely need good Mexican restaurants. Similar deal can be offered to any holier-than-thou Western country, I am sure.

This will certainly put Thailand back in the good light with the US, just like good ole time. Yes, sir, yes, sir. In the mean while, I am sure Abhisit wont be hanging around the phone or checking the mailbox for valentine cards. He is too busy running the country.

[VegasVic]

The new China will be different from the one most of us have grown to know. It will probably be a very modern China and we are not even prepared for it. With such a large economy and labor pool, it could easily out-manufacture any of the current powerhouses today.

The is becoming more real by the day. To many Asians, it looks as if the sun is setting on traditional western powerhouses.

Asians do not consider this as a silly Idea.

So do you think China is going to team up with the EU and Japan against the USA?

No, very clearly its: USA, Canada, EU, Japan... and most likely Russia...

So therefore China has to hope for CHINA-INDIA-BRAZIL (?? GOOD LUCK)...

So please lets stop these very silly "China is taking over the world hysteria"... They DO NOT have the numbers... Its really very silly...

The biggest change that China will have against the China we see today and that of the last 40 or 50 years, it that it will become increasingly democratic.

The idea that the entire Chinese populous will continue to be obedient good little citizens as China move to dominate the world is rather naive. There are already enormous distortions and disparities of wealth in China, and it is not impossible to believe that there could be some quite serious social upheaval if the problems of the rural poor are not addressed. Don't we seem to discuss this about another country close to home also?

Unfortunately, for the Chinese economic juggernaut (GDP/head still a fraction of the developed world) to continue it needs to be able to subjugate to a degree the rights of its population. Furthermore, the government sector despite some improvement over the years is still enormously inefficient and wasteful. I was in China when the ridiculous discussion about condo owners owning their own parking spaces was being had. The system must change to allow China to continue to grow economically.

I don't foresee that China will be able to drag all of its people along with it economically with the current political and legal structures.

Thai at heart, You hit the proverbial nail on the head in your post here China will become the worlds second largest economy this year overtaking Japan, however the per capita income in China ranks 37th in the world The disparity of wealth in China is the greatest in the world, and is already manifesting itself in civil unrest around the countryside and this will spread exponentially over the coming years. China is also building massive commercial infrastructure projects all around the country many of which like the high end shopping malls are seeing very little demand for them. In the manufacturing business world there is something known as the law of diminishing returns, when that theory is applied to China as a business entity one can easily see that China is rapidly aproaching this critical juncture. One only needs to see what happened to Japan in the late 1980's to early 1990's in order to see where China is heading, in fact the fallout when China "hits the wall" could be far greater than in Japan. Giving this some historical perspective I guess that the situation has not changed all that much from 125 years ago when the U.S.A. was the worlds largest economy and China was the worlds second largest economy. As far as Thailand goes it would be wise for any future governments (I am guessing that there may be a new one soon?) to think long and hard about who it aligns themselves with, remembering that it was the U.S.A. in the 1950's - 1970's who built a good portion of the modern Thai infrastructure followed to a slightly lesser degree by Japans investsments in the late 1970's - early 1990's, whilst China just seems interested in raping Thailand of its resources and infiltrating its political process

[brahmburgers]

If Thai-US relations are strained, where is the Thai military going to go for renewed shipments of Humvees and Huey helicopters?

And how is it that tens of thousands of Thai farmers have the same type of Ford tractor (same size, same year, same attachments). Was there a massive give-away (or fire-sale prices) by Uncle Sam 14 years ago?

[toybits]

During my lifetime, I remember we used to laugh at goods that were marked "Made in Japan". Imagine that. Then we laughed at good that were "Made in Taiwan". Today, we are laughing at goods that are "Made in China". I wonder if people will still be laughing at good that will be made in China 20 to 30 years from today?

Thai at heart, You hit the proverbial nail on the head in your post here China will become the worlds second largest economy this year overtaking Japan, however the per capita income in China ranks 37th in the world The disparity of wealth in China is the greatest in the world, and is already manifesting itself in civil unrest around the countryside and this will spread exponentially over the coming years. China is also building massive commercial infrastructure projects all around the country many of which like the high end shopping malls are seeing very little demand for them. In the manufacturing business world there is something known as the law of diminishing returns, when that theory is applied to China as a business entity one can easily see that China is rapidly aproaching this critical juncture. One only needs to see what happened to Japan in the late 1980's to early 1990's in order to see where China is heading, in fact the fallout when China "hits the wall" could be far greater than in Japan. Giving this some historical perspective I guess that the situation has not changed all that much from 125 years ago when the U.S.A. was the worlds largest economy and China was the worlds second largest economy. As far as Thailand goes it would be wise for any future governments (I am guessing that there may be a new one soon?) to think long and hard about who it aligns themselves with, remembering that it was the U.S.A. in the 1950's - 1970's who built a good portion of the modern Thai infrastructure followed to a slightly lesser degree by Japans investsments in the late 1970's - early 1990's, whilst China just seems interested in raping Thailand of its resources and infiltrating its political process

[toptuan]

During my lifetime, I remember we used to laugh at goods that were marked "Made in Japan". Imagine that. Then we laughed at good that were "Made in Taiwan". Today, we are laughing at goods that are "Made in China". I wonder if people will still be laughing at good that will be made in China 20 to 30 years from today?

Probably not. Already the China-directed laugh is turning off on a number of computer products and ventures such high-speed trains and space travel. China already has 25+ years experience in computer production alone.

The way things are going, the laugh just may be directed toward products from the USA 20-30 years down the road. And Toyota.

[LaoPo]

During my lifetime, I remember we used to laugh at goods that were marked "Made in Japan". Imagine that. Then we laughed at good that were "Made in Taiwan". Today, we are laughing at goods that are "Made in China". I wonder if people will still be laughing at good that will be made in China 20 to 30 years from today?

Probably not. Already the China-directed laugh is turning off on a number of computer products and ventures such high-speed trains and space travel. China already has 25+ years experience in computer production alone.

The way things are going, the laugh just may be directed toward products from the USA 20-30 years down the road. And Toyota.

I second that; every single iPod, iPhone, Mac, iTouch etc is made in China apart from so many other manufacturers.

Granted, designed by Apple engineers of course but still made in China so the cooperation between the Apple Board & engineers and the Taiwanese/Chinese manufacturer Foxconn (550.000 workers!) is working out just fine...

Foxconn to invest another 200 million in Hangzhou(/Zhejiang province China)

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/m/hangzhou/e/...ent_9096058.htm

Too many people still think China is just manufacturing cheap stuff; they do still, because the Western buyers want them to make cheap stuff. Blame the buyers not the manufacturers.

Warren Buffett is smarter than most negative China viewers and took a percentage in the largest battery maker in China: BYD*, which (large company with 130,000 employees) recently received all permissions to start selling their electric cars in the US in which they are a leading manufacturer because of their advanced battery technology....

BYD started a mere 15 years ago; that says something of what's happening in China.

It takes time.

* http://www.byd.com.cn/views/home/indexe.htm

LaoPo

[brahmburgers]

Maybe they'll improve quality over time, but currently, much of 'Made in China' is inferior. Shops that sell tools in Chiang Rai have a section for Chinese tools, and a section for tools made in Japan, Korea, Europe and the USA. Guess which tools cost half as much, and break down twice as often?

Chinese have always been, and always will be copiers. Indeed, Chinese who are adept at copying (relics, etc) are often held in high esteem in China. With their intense control syndrome coming from their paranoid politburo, they're driving out the best search engine in the world (Google), so Chinese folks will sink further behind in terms of innovations.

Unless a person is a China watcher, he/she cannot name an international commercial brand name which originates in China. Heck, that same person could probably name 10 companies with worldwide respect that originate in relatively tiny Switzerland or Holland.

[Publicus]

During my lifetime, I remember we used to laugh at goods that were marked "Made in Japan". Imagine that. Then we laughed at good that were "Made in Taiwan". Today, we are laughing at goods that are "Made in China". I wonder if people will still be laughing at good that will be made in China 20 to 30 years from today?

Probably not. Already the China-directed laugh is turning off on a number of computer products and ventures such high-speed trains and space travel. China already has 25+ years experience in computer production alone.

The way things are going, the laugh just may be directed toward products from the USA 20-30 years down the road. And Toyota.

I second that; every single iPod, iPhone, Mac, iTouch etc is made in China apart from so many other manufacturers.

Granted, designed by Apple engineers of course but still made in China so the cooperation between the Apple Board & engineers and the Taiwanese/Chinese manufacturer Foxconn (550.000 workers!) is working out just fine...

Foxconn to invest another 200 million in Hangzhou(/Zhejiang province China)

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/m/hangzhou/e/...ent_9096058.htm

Too many people still think China is just manufacturing cheap stuff; they do still, because the Western buyers want them to make cheap stuff. Blame the buyers not the manufacturers.

Warren Buffett is smarter than most negative China viewers and took a percentage in the largest battery maker in China: BYD*, which (large company with 130,000 employees) recently received all permissions to start selling their electric cars in the US in which they are a leading manufacturer because of their advanced battery technology....

BYD started a mere 15 years ago; that says something of what's happening in China.

It takes time.

* http://www.byd.com.cn/views/home/indexe.htm

LaoPo

The one and only selling point the government of the People's Republic of China has to its subjegated peoples domestically and to critics internationally is economic progress and development, which affects only half of the 1,500,00,000 population of the PRC and which, although the half constitute a median of the PRC population, is a significant and substantial economy. (We do need to explore and discover the rural misery and hopeless destitution of the lesser half, 750,000,000, who live on less than USD $2 a day.) 

The PRC however cannot promote individual freedom and free or independent thought. It cannot promote the development of the best possible realization of the individual's human potential through freedom of expression, or for instance academic freedom. The PRC cannot nor will it allow for freedom of speech, or of press, or of religion. As demonstrated in Tienaman Square in 1989, the PRC government (led then by the 'great economic reformer' Deng Xiao Peng) will slaughter as many peaceful and unarmed protesters among the Chinese people, protestors and demonstrators, as is necessary to preserve its dictatorial self rule, in the interests of itself.

The PRC is a self limiting society economically and politically - in human terms and in cultural terms. If you like repressive rule, if you like top down authoritarian rule and government, a culture of fear and silence against the all powerful authorities and their fascist police state, you'll love the People's Republic of China now and in the foreseeable future. More power to the fascist dictators of Beijing! (Didn't anyone here read Orwell???)

For the PRC government to argue and state that economic progress has been made, and to present it as the only justification and rationale to support and promote support for it, is inadequate, insufficient and unacceptable in a world that is continually tending towards more, greater and better democracy. People empowerment is the key to the future of both the individual and society. It is in this regard that the PRC fails miserably. (Why is it products made in China are, well, products made in China - presently and for the foreseeable future?) The general level of education in China is equivalent to that of Thailand with no progress in sight for the 1,500,000,000 population as a whole.

The 5,000 year history of the PRC is top down rule, strictly required and strictly adhered to by its population, and strictly enforced. Few people, societies, cultures ever got anywhere by being grotesquely deferential towards authority, and this is ever more so in modern society, when the single party state and its apparatus has such self granted authority and powers as exist presently and for the indefinite future as in the PRC.     

Edited February 5, 2010 by Publicus

[Publicus]

...And you need not be from some place to also see what was done wrong there....

I can be quite hard on USA too, but for logical reasons and not because it's not 'Olde Enough'...

Bush ruined the country for generations in my eyes, and that isn't a joke, though many want to laugh at it.

Too many see the USA as this great agreement amongst all to be what it is, versus the reality of

so many opinions that it can't always keep it's mind straight.

Versus or compared to the alternative super power:

China gets its bashings for quite logical reasons to, it has earned them

in the eyes of much of the western thinkers. And regardless if you are in love with China or not

it is not this perfect wonderland and above reproach as some would like it to appear.

China comes into this picture because it is what is causing much of the realignment and disconnect

between USA and indo-china regional players. And in this discussion specifically Thailand.

I doubt that it is lost on Chinas uber-communist masters that 'Communism' didn't

make it a super power in the area, they won the wars, but not the battle.

It is the capitalist wolf in sheeples clothing of communism that actually has turned the tide,

in Chinas favor to greatly control the regional economic block,

which they NOW realize is more important than controlling the POLITICAL thought in the indo-China bloc.

And Thailands economic realities are more likely the cause of this Lao/Thai/USA realignment.

because the 800lb gorilla in the corner is China, and Laos and Thailand want it well fed,

and content not to tear up the cage. And to collect its gratitude at being fed enough to be content.

China gets bashed because of logical reasons, obvious to all, but not always stated because

some will play tattletaie, like school children and get the critiquing person in trouble with

the thought police, as opposed to seeing 'critique as part of the needed growth process of a super power'.

Thing is about tattletails, in school it's not much, just kids looking for brownie points with teacher.

In real life it is harmful even as the words told about, are really not much of an issue.

But the reaction to them can be deadly or dislocating or just plain an over reaction

from the overly sensitive. And if the tattletaler does it to make brownie points for business

or personal interests then that is as low as it gets. We KNOW this stupidity goes on of course.

USA gets bashed for it's wind swept changes of mind, a by product of democratic systems.

I often bash USA myself, but try to do it from a logical position, not one of resentment.

Points well taken by many more than I alone.

And tattletales can be tattletales for more than business reasons. There are reasons of credenda and ideologoy as well for such reprehensible behaviours. 

Edited February 5, 2010 by Publicus

[Publicus]

Interesting that you should mention Nixon. Before being elected as President of the USofA, he served as an ambassador to the People's Republic of China. 

Nixon never held a diplomatic appointment, and certainly never as US Ambassador to the PRC. Never.

Nixon's public career ended more than 30 years ago, so a bit of a major historical error is understandable and perhaps excusable. But to say Richard Milhaus Nixon was ever US Ambassador to the People's Republic of China is quite off center, not to mention entirely inaccurate.

[Publicus]

Oh good the US bashers are here. And they all come from such stellar places.

I have seen more China bashing so far than US bashing to be fair....

Apparently China bashing is nothing wrong with; US bashing is...?

I didn't participate so far but that's my opinion.

The thing is that the topic is about Thai-US Relations are drifting apart but the content actually drifted towards China (also), not so much the Thai-US relation but maybe I didn't read all messages well enough.

LaoPo

You've read this thread well enuff and other threads as well. After all, you have umpteen thousand posts around these parts. So how many read posts do you have....trumpteen thousand?

Again, touchy, touchy....sensitive.

My, my.

Edited February 5, 2010 by Publicus

[LaoPo]

Maybe they'll improve quality over time, but currently, much of 'Made in China' is inferior. Shops that sell tools in Chiang Rai have a section for Chinese tools, and a section for tools made in Japan, Korea, Europe and the USA. Guess which tools cost half as much, and break down twice as often?

Chinese have always been, and always will be copiers. Indeed, Chinese who are adept at copying (relics, etc) are often held in high esteem in China. With their intense control syndrome coming from their paranoid politburo, they're driving out the best search engine in the world (Google), so Chinese folks will sink further behind in terms of innovations.

Unless a person is a China watcher, he/she cannot name an international commercial brand name which originates in China. Heck, that same person could probably name 10 companies with worldwide respect that originate in relatively tiny Switzerland or Holland.

I agree; those countries and companies had 50-100 years more time to develop and grow; give it time. The Japanese car manufacturers had the same, or poorer chances, to sell their cars as the European and American car makers had, after WWII....

....and where are they now ?

LaoPo

[brahmburgers]

Yes, all types of scenarios could happen in the future.

China could develop towards democracy, free press, free speech, a decent justice system.

So could Zimbabwe or Saudi Arabia, if we're talking in hypothetical spheres.

Using the same logic, China could possibly devolve to fracturing in to fiefdoms or minor republics (as Yugoslavia did recently) ... which has happened numerous times in China during its turbulent history.

....or it could remain somewhat like it has been for the past twenty years, an emerging economy with human rights problems which is imperialist at home (Tibet), ineffective on the world stage, and anti-interference in its tolerance for (and trade with) rogue governments outside its borders. The exception for it's anti-interference policy pertains to Taiwan and parts of the Himalayas bordering India.

Thailand would do better to be friends with China and the US and Europe and the others. ...and not just a 'fair weather friend'. However, Thailand should stand up for itself when it comes to natural resources being 'shanghaied' by China, such as the Salween and Mekong rivers, both of which are being dammed by China. The dire consequences of losing much of that water is only starting to be felt by Thailand. Expect serious consequences for Thais in coming years, as more dams get built.

Edited February 6, 2010 by brahmburgers

[animatic]

The signs of China fraying at its edges are obvious, and leadership is aggravating the situation.

There will likely be for a long time a coastal manufacturing China that is PRC,

but if 6-8 border territories ALL go walk about, even China hasn't the power to line them all up again,

and being too heavy handed in one or two would likely cause an even greater territorial backlash.

Multiple medium scale civil wars in China is a worst case scenario, but I may live to see it.

Obama saw they were being recalcitrant and made a long pending deal for Taiwan weapons,

China is hyperventilating over that right now, but what can they do that doesn't hurt them

and the faltering world economy just as much. So they talk loud.

Edited February 6, 2010 by animatic

[Thai at Heart]

Maybe they'll improve quality over time, but currently, much of 'Made in China' is inferior. Shops that sell tools in Chiang Rai have a section for Chinese tools, and a section for tools made in Japan, Korea, Europe and the USA. Guess which tools cost half as much, and break down twice as often?

Chinese have always been, and always will be copiers. Indeed, Chinese who are adept at copying (relics, etc) are often held in high esteem in China. With their intense control syndrome coming from their paranoid politburo, they're driving out the best search engine in the world (Google), so Chinese folks will sink further behind in terms of innovations.

Unless a person is a China watcher, he/she cannot name an international commercial brand name which originates in China. Heck, that same person could probably name 10 companies with worldwide respect that originate in relatively tiny Switzerland or Holland.

I agree; those countries and companies had 50-100 years more time to develop and grow; give it time. The Japanese car manufacturers had the same, or poorer chances, to sell their cars as the European and American car makers had, after WWII....

....and where are they now ?

LaoPo

This is indeed one of China's most massive problems. However, companies in China, can become gargantuan in scale without having to venture overseas. It is indeed one of the major weaknesses of Chinese business that as yet there are no real international companies save minerals etc.

It is also interesting that many "large" Chinese companies in many markets in China have positioned themselves as the Chinese alternative to the internationals. Li-Ning, Geely, several mobile phone companies, which are domestically large companies but who's main marketing break is to sell a "Chinese" training shoe that looks like a Nike or a "Chinese" car that looks like a BMW.

The days of Made in Taiwan, and Made in Japan are long gone. You cannot take your place in the market on price alone, you have to have a better, or cleverer, or better designed, or better make product that stands on its own merits.

[LaoPo]

The signs of China fraying at its edges are obvious, and leadership is aggravating the situation.

There will likely be for a long time a coastal manufacturing China that is PRC,

but if 6-8 border territories ALL go walk about, even China hasn't the power to line them all up again,

and being too heavy handed in one or two would likely cause an even greater territorial backlash.

Multiple medium scale civil wars in China is a worst case scenario, but I may live to see it.

Obama saw they were being recalcitrant and made a long pending deal for Taiwan weapons,

China is hyperventilating over that right now, but what can they do that doesn't hurt them

and the faltering world economy just as much. So they talk loud.

Taiwan and China will unite one day in one form or another; the same as happened with Hong Kong and Macau. It's a matter of time.

The Taiwanese can't survive without China anymore if one realizes how much production is done for the Taiwanese on the mainland. Every single Apple device, although officially ordered by Apple from Taiwan, is made in China. Taiwan has enormous interests in China.

That China is not amused by this arms' deal to it's "neighbor" is understandable; the US would be very annoyed if China would deliver arms to Mexico...or Cuba or any other Central- or South American country.

Why do Americans always look upon world situations from their own perspective? There are other places in the world as well you know.

LaoPo

[Donnyboy]

That China is not amused by this arms' deal to it's "neighbor" is understandable; the US would be very annoyed if China would deliver arms to Mexico...or Cuba or any other Central- or South American country.

Why do Americans always look upon world situations from their own perspective? There are other places in the world as well you know.

LaoPo

so true

[LaoPo]

Maybe they'll improve quality over time, but currently, much of 'Made in China' is inferior. Shops that sell tools in Chiang Rai have a section for Chinese tools, and a section for tools made in Japan, Korea, Europe and the USA. Guess which tools cost half as much, and break down twice as often?

Chinese have always been, and always will be copiers. Indeed, Chinese who are adept at copying (relics, etc) are often held in high esteem in China. With their intense control syndrome coming from their paranoid politburo, they're driving out the best search engine in the world (Google), so Chinese folks will sink further behind in terms of innovations.

Unless a person is a China watcher, he/she cannot name an international commercial brand name which originates in China. Heck, that same person could probably name 10 companies with worldwide respect that originate in relatively tiny Switzerland or Holland.

I agree; those countries and companies had 50-100 years more time to develop and grow; give it time. The Japanese car manufacturers had the same, or poorer chances, to sell their cars as the European and American car makers had, after WWII....

....and where are they now ?

LaoPo

This is indeed one of China's most massive problems. However, companies in China, can become gargantuan in scale without having to venture overseas. It is indeed one of the major weaknesses of Chinese business that as yet there are no real international companies save minerals etc.

It is also interesting that many "large" Chinese companies in many markets in China have positioned themselves as the Chinese alternative to the internationals. Li-Ning, Geely, several mobile phone companies, which are domestically large companies but who's main marketing break is to sell a "Chinese" training shoe that looks like a Nike or a "Chinese" car that looks like a BMW.

The days of Made in Taiwan, and Made in Japan are long gone. You cannot take your place in the market on price alone, you have to have a better, or cleverer, or better designed, or better make product that stands on its own merits.

I agree.

What many forget is the enormous, GIGANTIC, consumers' market within China itself for so many products that it is mind boggling and there are local Chinese brands which sell more in quantity and turnover than many Western brands, considered to be famous in the western world.

Brand building cost time and money.

Many factories do not even sell their products yet abroad since they don't need to sell to other countries and/or don't have the proper staff to do so. Their production is not even high enough to deliver and fulfill demand from within China.

Others do and build their business for export slowly but surely, with and/or without their own brand names because they can get a much better price in foreign countries than they can in their home market.

Western brands however understood the importance of the Chinese market and are building and founding a base to try and sell their products into China.

Within 10-20 years, China (and later India also) will have a much larger turnover in many western brands than those brands will have sold ever before in their "own" west.

Next to that there will be major important shifting and changing in shareholders (majority) of western brands; meaning those brands' owners will sell the majority of their stakes to Chinese companies or Chinese companies will simply buy majority stocks on western stock markets.

The same as western companies/shareholders are doing in Western or Chinese companies.

Nothing new; the Japanese are doing so for decades; the same for the Americans, German , Swiss, British etc., buying (majority) stakes abroad.

For the normal Joe-the-Plumber is doesn't matter who owns the company as long as he likes a product.

LaoPo