You and your Thai Wife of 20 years.

[jackinbkk]

Hi,

i'm just curious if anyone here is tracking/trading the major indexes:

NIKKEI

FTSE

DAX

S&P

I'd like to know what methods/fundamentals you chaps use for a broad forecast of daily direction.

I'm well aware of the technical analysis so no need to go into that. such as

i.e. Trend lines, Indicators, patterns...

I'm just talking about fundamentals:

eg. Earning reports, economic calendar data, gold price, oil price etc, gold, banking, mining, commodities...

[nakachalet]

i just came off the stocks forum. you really need to go there where you'll find plenty of companies.... LOL

just curious though, from your past experiences, did you ever find anyone who can reasonably predict which way the downs, NIKKEI, FTSE, DAX or S&P.... is going?

is there any broker, analyst, long term trader, medium trader, day trader, nano trader et cetera.... out there yonder who with in depth knowledge of earning reports, economic calendar data, gold price, oil price etc, gold, banking, mining, commodities and many others etc...,

can actually predict the direction of the market with any degree of accuracy and consistency....?

if there is such a guru in existence....what would such a person be doing amongst us motals....

and why would such a person be doing anything at all but counting his/her trillion euro....?

about 6 hrs before u s mkt opened today, an established multimillionnaire called to ask--which direction is downs heading today? my response was, i do not really know....

he called back again around 9 am (est), 30 min before mkt opened with the same question.... again i told him, it is going higher.... he wants to know why is it going up....? i answered, i do not know....

he continued--i am serious now, which direction is it going for sure? my answer was, it would probably be going lower....

again he wanted to know why.... my answer again was, i do not know for sure....

he was a little pissed and said that one of his banker confidants told him that he should call me for trading advices.... lol

i told him again, i really do not know which way the mkt is going to move and nobody in the world would be able to tell him with any degree of certainty which way the mkt is going to turn....

and my sms to him read....

i am very sorry, i truly do not know what the mkt is going to do or how high or how low it is going to trade....

i only trade with the trend and take whatever the mkt would give me during that particular session....

and even with my well defined perimeters i still lost several millions since 1986.... LOL

and i also advised him to go to THAIVISA STOCKS MARKET FORUM where he can find all the answers.... LOL

so jackinbkk.... you'll find your answers and plenty of enthus companies there....

best of luck and more importantly wishing you profitable trading as well.

Edited February 5, 2010 by nakachalet

[jackinbkk]

Hi Nakachalet,

thanks for your response. I trade FOREX. I realise nobody can tell which was markets will go.

I was just hoping that someone on the index trading side of things might give me some pointers as to what they watch for.

Sometimes as you probably know there are strong correlations between things. Such as the Dollar and the cost of oil,

the Yen and risk aversion or the FTSE and banking shares...

I'm just hoping to broaden my horizons. Another tool in the toolkit so to speak.

By the way, your post reminded me a lot of the book 'Fooled by Randomness'. Is that where your quote came from???

It's funny. Even knowing when a trend is up or down in a long term the parts in between can make or break you.

Keynes: 'The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent'

Maybe a stock market area would be good

[ronz28]

I think fundamentals like revenue/sales growth fuel the markets but one has a better chance making money over the long term using moving averages and support and resistance since market corrections occur anytime regardless of sales growth of the companies in the average you are focused on.

[badge]

Hi Nakachalet,

thanks for your response. I trade FOREX. I realise nobody can tell which was markets will go.

I was just hoping that someone on the index trading side of things might give me some pointers as to what they watch for.

[...]

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Learn-Predic...ts-t217413.html

[Kf6vci]

Well, I trade the DAX futures see www.eurexchange.com Only selling them, due to personal convictions.

Warning: some market orders never get a fill, although they are acknowledged properly.

Instead, some quote request gets triggered.

Yesterday, I watch a MF Global webinar about automatic trading programs - these might help.

Check out CFDs as an alternative - I wish I could have just kept earning a small interest for holding a bad position.

You know the cost, starting with the initial margin? For the dAX it used to be higher, now it's EUR 12,000 I think.

Chris

[Orion76]

I was just hoping that someone on the index trading side of things might give me some pointers as to what they watch for.

The chart of the index in only one time frame. Nothing else, especially not the news.

Sometimes as you probably know there are strong correlations between things. Such as the Dollar and the cost of oil,

the Yen and risk aversion or the FTSE and banking shares...

I'm just hoping to broaden my horizons. Another tool in the toolkit so to speak.

Correlations are not set in stone, many correlations are perceived but don't actually exist and the prices of all these markerts can turn on a dime. If you believe your stock index has to go up today because gold and oil etc. are up and the dollar is down in the morning then likely you have clouded your receptiveness to what is really important: what the market you are trading is actually doing right now, ie. having a bearish or bullish bias reduces your ability to perceive information that is not consistent with your bias.

Looking at lots of markets and trying to think about how they all affect the market you're trading also reduces the amount of time you have to think about the market you are actually trading and less time to concentrate on the chart you are actually trading.

Probably not the answer you are looking for, but IMO stock indexes do not behave in a rational manner and attempting to call its direction by looking at a heap of other markets is more likely to reduce your success than help you.

[Pakboong]

i just came off the stocks forum. you really need to go there where you'll find plenty of companies.... LOL

just curious though, from your past experiences, did you ever find anyone who can reasonably predict which way the downs, NIKKEI, FTSE, DAX or S&P.... is going?

is there any broker, analyst, long term trader, medium trader, day trader, nano trader et cetera.... out there yonder who with in depth knowledge of earning reports, economic calendar data, gold price, oil price etc, gold, banking, mining, commodities and many others etc...,

can actually predict the direction of the market with any degree of accuracy and consistency....?

if there is such a guru in existence....what would such a person be doing amongst us motals....

and why would such a person be doing anything at all but counting his/her trillion euro....?

about 6 hrs before u s mkt opened today, an established multimillionnaire called to ask--which direction is downs heading today? my response was, i do not really know....

he called back again around 9 am (est), 30 min before mkt opened with the same question.... again i told him, it is going higher.... he wants to know why is it going up....? i answered, i do not know....

he continued--i am serious now, which direction is it going for sure? my answer was, it would probably be going lower....

again he wanted to know why.... my answer again was, i do not know for sure....

he was a little pissed and said that one of his banker confidants told him that he should call me for trading advices.... lol

i told him again, i really do not know which way the mkt is going to move and nobody in the world would be able to tell him with any degree of certainty which way the mkt is going to turn....

and my sms to him read....

i am very sorry, i truly do not know what the mkt is going to do or how high or how low it is going to trade....

i only trade with the trend and take whatever the mkt would give me during that particular session....

and even with my well defined perimeters i still lost several millions since 1986.... LOL

and i also advised him to go to THAIVISA STOCKS MARKET FORUM where he can find all the answers.... LOL

so jackinbkk.... you'll find your answers and plenty of enthus companies there....

best of luck and more importantly wishing you profitable trading as well.

This stuff was in today's telegraph:

The Fed's own Monetary Multiplier crashed to an all-time low of 0.809 in mid-December. Commercial paper has shrunk by $280bn ($175bn) in since October. Bank credit has been racing down a hair-raising black run since June. It has dropped from $10.844 trillion to $9.013 trillion since November 25. The MZM money supply is contracting at a 3pc annual rate. Broad M3 money is contracting at over 5pc.