Uk Economy And Sterling - Election, Then What?

[Wentworth]

I'm after some general feelings, please no doom-mongers forecasting a 30 Baft Pound. Also, these are my general thoughts so feel free to correct any misunderstanding - gently please!

In terms of the credit crunch, I believe that the US and UK governments took slightly different paths with helping the banks. From what I can tell the US leant money to the banks whereas the UK either took majority shareholdings like RBS and Lloyds or effectively nationalised Northern Rock. With the US banks the government felt that they would get the money back relatively quickly; the UK government are going to wait till the share prices or business eg Northern Rock are in good shape and sell off the shares; hopefully making a profit.

Which would you say is the better option? Not sure about the US but it seems likely that it will take a few years before the UK government sell their holdings. Does it mean that the cost of servicing public borrowing, whilst the actual money is in bank shares, will be higher than if they had just leant the money to the banks.

With regard to public Borrowing, which is forecast to hit 178 Billion Pounds this FY; it seems that the UK are in a better position than say Greece as they have tangible assets in bank shares, which will presumably repay all or most of the borrowed money.

The general feeling is that the Tories will get a small majority at the election or perhaps a hung parliament, probably in May. I'm not espousing the Lib Dem cause and take election manifestos with a pinch of salt; but they have said that in the event of a hung parliament they feel that, on the big issues, they will not put a spanner in the works. They say that the party with the largest number of seats has a moral mandate to govern.

How do you feel about the future government dealing with the budget deficit?

[Maizefarmer]

I think the options are limited irrespective of the party that comes to power ..... there is no money in the coffers and thats all there is to it, but I'll be glad to see the back of Labour.

[yabaaaa]

I think sadly apart from whatever government, the UK people have to start taking responsibility for what they have done. Many of them went out and borrowed a shed load of money and didnt give a care in the world about tomorrow. Now tomorrow has arrived, just glad I didnt borrow any.

I see many people have a wallet full of credit cards maxxed right out. The banks shouldbt have lent sop easily but there is the person at the end of this knowing they are borrowing it in the first place.

Whatever happened to savers, Im only 46 but if we couldnt afford it we didnt borrow it, yes for houses but for a new car bike holiday watch tv its all uneccesary.

I used to love those "consolidate your debts loans on tv" with the bit at the end, some beaming housewife spotuing to her neighbour " we even had enough left over for a holdiay/car" after they had done this.(whilst looking down on their neighbour who hadnt) Morons haaha.

I dont know what the Uk does anymore to actually make money?

[yabaaaa]

Hey lets hope they strike oil in the Falklands, sadly we wont have the navy left to defend it by then!!

[tooninthai]

After the election then people will know who is in power (unless a hung parliament) but things should then stabilise. Recent polls indicate the Tories do not have enough of a % swing to form a government. That way it looks like another 5 years under Labour.

As I recall did not a lot of the financial egg heads write to the Times or the Financial Times, backing Labour to get us out of the mire faster and in better shape than the Tories?

Seems only time will tell the outcome.

The Labour government has already stated it will sell shares in teh Nationalised banks to the 'people' giving them a share in these institutions. But will any of the 'people' have any money to buy?

[KhunDave]

I think a working majority for the Tories should be in the prayers of every expat. The financial world views them as historically sound with the public finances - rightly or wrongly - and Labour as spendthrift incompetants. A decent Cameron majority will do wonders for the strength of Sterling IMHO.

[chiang mai]

I don't know is the answer but I have my suspicions - for the earlier poster who doesn't know what the UK manufacturers any longer, here's a useful article:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/1861801.stm

I was looking for, but couldn't find, a fairly recent article that compared UK manufacturing output to that of other countries but I couldn't find it, I was amazed that the UK is in the very top league in this category.

Finally, like many ex-pats I hope that Labour do not win the next election, but I have this horrible feeling that sadly, the future may be Brown.

Edited March 7, 2010 by chiang mai

[mrbojangles]

A decent Cameron majority will do wonders for the strength of Sterling IMHO.

And finally get rid of the dip stick that no one voted in, in the first place.

[Ricardo]

Then What ?

Brits living in the Pattaya/Jomtien area, might look forward to having more sympathetic company, when bemoaning the fate of the world over a friendly Chang at their local watering-hole, following mass-evacuation mercy-flights to U-Tapao ?

[FarangBuddha]

What the h*ll does this post have to do with Thailand? It's my understanding that posts have to have at least some tangential relationship to Thailand...and just saying a lot of Brits work or are retired and living in Thailand is not really enough.

Edited March 7, 2010 by FarangBuddha

[chiang mai]

What the h*ll does this post have to do with Thailand? It's my understanding that posts have to have at least some tangential relationship to Thailand...and just saying a lot of Brits work or are retired and living in Thailand is not really enough.

Hopefully nobody forced you to read this thread, if they did, you should point out to them you didn't want to do so because it's not Thai related. Having said that, British ex-pats comprise a larger percentage of ex-pats in Thailand thus any change in UK government resulting from the forthcoming elections has a direct bearing on social and economic aspects in Thailand.

[Lite Beer]

Profanity loaded post deleted

[Slaps]

What the h*ll does this post have to do with Thailand? It's my understanding that posts have to have at least some tangential relationship to Thailand...and just saying a lot of Brits work or are retired and living in Thailand is not really enough.

Hopefully nobody forced you to read this thread, if they did, you should point out to them you didn't want to do so because it's not Thai related. Having said that, British ex-pats comprise a larger percentage of ex-pats in Thailand thus any change in UK government resulting from the forthcoming elections has a direct bearing on social and economic aspects in Thailand.

Well put chiang mai

[euca]

What the h*ll does this post have to do with Thailand? It's my understanding that posts have to have at least some tangential relationship to Thailand...and just saying a lot of Brits work or are retired and living in Thailand is not really enough.

Oh, really, now

I'm sure you are going to read this, FB, so , just to turn the iron in your wound, I will note that the bookies are offering 20/1-on for a hung parliament. 94.47% at the last count, see www.politicalbetting.com. Grab it, it won't last.

Some of us don't get out much, [don't want to], but enjoy politics, unattached to one party, as a blood sport. Relax and be with us, FB, old sport. It's fun but I think you disapprove of that.

Tangentially to that, I'm also enjoying Commas Day, today. , , , , , , , , ,

Ah, sun's over the yardarm

[thaibeachlovers]

I think sadly apart from whatever government, the UK people have to start taking responsibility for what they have done. Many of them went out and borrowed a shed load of money and didnt give a care in the world about tomorrow. Now tomorrow has arrived, just glad I didnt borrow any.

I see many people have a wallet full of credit cards maxxed right out. The banks shouldbt have lent sop easily but there is the person at the end of this knowing they are borrowing it in the first place.

Whatever happened to savers, Im only 46 but if we couldnt afford it we didnt borrow it, yes for houses but for a new car bike holiday watch tv its all uneccesary.

I used to love those "consolidate your debts loans on tv" with the bit at the end, some beaming housewife spotuing to her neighbour " we even had enough left over for a holdiay/car" after they had done this.(whilst looking down on their neighbour who hadnt) Morons haaha.

I dont know what the Uk does anymore to actually make money?

I doubt that "ordinary' people will take any responsibility, not when the gov't just wants the housing market to go back to what it used to be, which is why the problem started in the first place!

The gov't needs to put up interest rates for savers for a start, as why would anyone save anything for 0 interest?

I feel sorry for people who used to live off their interest seeing their capital disappearing, and when times get better, all the retired people will be the new destitute.

The thing that amazed me when it happened was how many people still carried on as if nothing had happened. In my workplace ( NHS hospital ) if I hadn't read the newspapers, and watched the news, I'd not have had a clue to what was happening ( except to my bank a/c interest ). No one had any interest in it at all. Sigh.

[Ricardo]

What the h*ll does this post have to do with Thailand? It's my understanding that posts have to have at least some tangential relationship to Thailand...and just saying a lot of Brits work or are retired and living in Thailand is not really enough.

OK, then I'll add that a lot of Brits come to Thailand on holiday, and the election-result will influence the strength of Sterling, and their continuing ability to afford to come here. Enuff already ?

[gregchambers]

The question also is how much stronger the baht can get, if it was still forty to the dollar then the sterling exchange rate would be tolerable at over 60 - a rising pound after a Tory victory and a falling baht after its government implosion is not impossible - or vice versa. The experts will basically tell you it is going to be volatile - ie they do not have a clue. I recommend movement of funds to a Singapore bank (income and capital gains tax free and no access to your funds by tax authorities) with multi-currency account and keeping the money available to change on a whim - you will lose a little bit of interest compared to long term saving accs but the gains on currency swings can be massive... but only use currencies that you can spend if it all goes wrong later!

[ukrules]

A decent Cameron majority will do wonders for the strength of Sterling IMHO.

And finally get rid of the dip stick that no one voted in, in the first place.

The people of the Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath constituency might not agree with you here as his name was on the ballot when they voted him in as an MP at the last general election.

[Zstarx]

It's amazing that Scotland have their own assembly yet they also vote in this election. The oil has nearly run out, why doesn't England get rid of Scotland, then you'd have a Tory government no problems.

[MiG16]

Im moving this to the business forum, provided people dont turn this into a full on political debate on the UK elections, but focus the discussion on the affect on the currency.

interesting as the election debate will be, this is a Thailand forum, and we have to draw the line somewhere

cheers

[01322521959]

What the h*ll does this post have to do with Thailand? It's my understanding that posts have to have at least some tangential relationship to Thailand...and just saying a lot of Brits work or are retired and living in Thailand is not really enough.

Hopefully nobody forced you to read this thread, if they did, you should point out to them you didn't want to do so because it's not Thai related. Having said that, British ex-pats comprise a larger percentage of ex-pats in Thailand thus any change in UK government resulting from the forthcoming elections has a direct bearing on social and economic aspects in Thailand.

Well put chiang mai

Agreed