Thai gov. to tax (remitted) income from abroad for tax residents starting 2024 - Part II

[aikawa]

With all the hype regarding the major rally. One would think that it would be the best time to exchange currency for their Bangkok trip. But when I look at the exchange rate at superrich. I was shocked. Last week the exchange rate was as high as SGD$1 to THB$23.50. But today it is as low as THB$23.10. Why is that so? Sorry as I am very new to all this.

[gotlost]

I have seen it change 3 to 4 times in a day. At the present the world economy sucks and is is sill volatile.

[soundman]

Moved to banking and finance section.

[chiang mai]

The US Dollar has fallen of late, look at the USD/THB exchange rates of late.

[gotlost]

GBP is 48.20

[gotlost]

USD 32.26

[colino]

GBP is 48.20

You think that is bad here at Heathrow the exchange rate is 42,baht to the pound

dont by baht here ,,,colino

[gotlost]

GBP is 48.20

You think that is bad here at Heathrow the exchange rate is 42,baht to the pound

dont by baht here ,,,colino

It's always been worst at Heathrow.

[jombom]

So why is the Baht getting stronger against every other major world currency ??

Vast new gold or oil discovery perhaps, or nervous jitters in the corridors of power ??

This used to happen in the days of the military coup, but they used to allow the Baht to return to some sort of ''normality'' within a couple of weeks.

Has Thailand suddenly become 5% wealthier ??

[aikawa]

That is what I am curious about. The rate at which THB is rising. It is as if the country got wealthy overnight. The change in the exchange rate is too drastic.

[hhgz]

"So why is the Baht getting stronger against every other major world currency ??"

How much money did Thailand have to borrow or print to handle the financial crisis during the past 18 months?

[chiang mai]

This question or similar gets asked almost weekly these days and invariably trying to answer it causes some fiction - I'll give you my take on the situation but be prepared for others to come along and utter all manner of nonsense, mostly this is because I think that some people find it too difficult to accept that Thailand could actually be out performing the beloved motherland(s) in terms of economics.

It's true that the Baht has been strengthening of late and the BOT has actually been spending money trying to keep the lid on it, fortunately the Baht is a lesser currency in Forex terms hence it doesn't require much of a spend to keep it around the mid point of a basket of regional currencies which is where BOT wishes it to be. But the bigger problem for the Baht is that Western currencies have been falling in value hence the Baht and GBP & USD have been going in opposite directions so the shift in value is actually magnified somewhat.

Why? Well Thailand is an export driven economy and their exports have recovered more quickly than many other countries, Thai GDP is now something on the order of 4.2% which is quite impressive. In addition, Thailand is showing a surplus in all its financial categories, current account, trade and foreign reserves (the latter by the way is around USD 140 bill).

[aikawa]

Well, but it couldn't be happening just over a couple of days right. It is a flucuation of around .40 thb.

[chiang mai]

Well, but it couldn't be happening just over a couple of days right. It is a flucuation of around .40 thb.

No, a number of currencies have been moving quite steadily for a number of weeks and then periodically we see a fairly significant fall/climb in a single day. On that point, if you log onto FXstreet or similar you can see the second by second movement in a range of currencies and it watching the way they move is quite educational, some days you'll see wild swings of several cents in just a matter of minutes, at other times it's like watching grass grow.

[aikawa]

Hhmmm, sighz. Just hope that it will normalize soon. The rate is way too low. It's even lower than when i was in BKK last year during the Song Kran Riot Period.. =(

[chiang mai]

Hhmmm, sighz. Just hope that it will normalize soon. The rate is way too low. It's even lower than when i was in BKK last year during the Song Kran Riot Period.. =(

If it's any consolation to you, I'd much rather be holding your currency in my banks than the one you spend daily, yours has a great chance at quick recovery, mine's toast or even burnt bits.

[Abrak]

"So why is the Baht getting stronger against every other major world currency ??"

How much money did Thailand have to borrow or print to handle the financial crisis during the past 18 months?

Why dont you look at the Bank of Thailand balance sheet before making an idiot of yourself?

[aikawa]

Let's hope for the better. It would be nice to see better exchange rate.

[Sunderland]

Let's hope for the better. It would be nice to see better exchange rate.

Best cash in now.

Might never go higher than 32.5 again.

Still a good deal higher than back in 1996.

[aikawa]

It's at SGD$1 to THB$22.90 now. Very very low...

[wordchild]

It's at SGD$1 to THB$22.90 now. Very very low...

baht / sing dollar spot rate = 23.37 today ,the rate was lower than this (around 22.90 in nov 2008 and again in march 2009. In fact the relationship between these two has been remarkably stable over time. For most of the last decade they have traded between 23 and 24 baht to sing dollar.

[aikawa]

They declared ISA for the duration of mid march. Let's see what happen to the rate in conjunction with events happening.

[chiang mai]

They declared ISA for the duration of mid march. Let's see what happen to the rate in conjunction with events happening.

Don't hold your breath for any substantial change.

[jdrake72]

It's at SGD$1 to THB$22.90 now. Very very low...

baht / sing dollar spot rate = 23.37 today ,the rate was lower than this (around 22.90 in nov 2008 and again in march 2009. In fact the relationship between these two has been remarkably stable over time. For most of the last decade they have traded between 23 and 24 baht to sing dollar.

did you see ?

I noted this relationship YEARS ago and anybody in this forum was telling me i was a madman.

THB is very close related to singapore dollar, but the problem is Thai economy is VERY different from Singapore economy.

By following this currency, there can be strogn distortions in time.

Apart from the current surpluses, there is not any long term fundamental for Thailand to have such a strong Baht.

It will fall down, one day, and it will fall just like a stone.

1997 bis...

you know which day ... i cannot tell , because i would go against the rules of this forum.

[Abrak]

Apart from the current surpluses, there is not any long term fundamental for Thailand to have such a strong Baht.

Normally a sentence tends to state the opposite, because of current surpluses it is not at all surprising to see a strong baht.

[Abrak]

This question or similar gets asked almost weekly these days and invariably trying to answer it causes some fiction - I'll give you my take on the situation but be prepared for others to come along and utter all manner of nonsense, mostly this is because I think that some people find it too difficult to accept that Thailand could actually be out performing the beloved motherland(s) in terms of economics.

It's true that the Baht has been strengthening of late and the BOT has actually been spending money trying to keep the lid on it, fortunately the Baht is a lesser currency in Forex terms hence it doesn't require much of a spend to keep it around the mid point of a basket of regional currencies which is where BOT wishes it to be. But the bigger problem for the Baht is that Western currencies have been falling in value hence the Baht and GBP & USD have been going in opposite directions so the shift in value is actually magnified somewhat.

Why? Well Thailand is an export driven economy and their exports have recovered more quickly than many other countries, Thai GDP is now something on the order of 4.2% which is quite impressive. In addition, Thailand is showing a surplus in all its financial categories, current account, trade and foreign reserves (the latter by the way is around USD 140 bill).

Well done you actually have spotted things like a US$70bn intervention by the BoT to stop it rising. You also noticed that the baht has about the strongest economic fundamentals in the world and was one of very few countries to generate surpluses. And you can see a massive economic recovery, so high that BoT didnt mention the QOQ SAAR of 15.3% last quarter.

But the intervention sterilization is the big point if you have 18% of your money supply stuck on the BoT's balance sheet doing nothing which implies 18% suppressed inflation or an 18% undervaluation you really have to wonder how much more pain and money they are going to spend. Arguably it is hard to think of a worse investment than a US$70bn short in baht.

I would suggest the baht generally tries to peg itself against the yuan at the moment. They have the extraordinary position of having capital controls and being part of a dollar peg. So a lot of speculative flows go to currencies like the baht. The baht has been particular strong recently. I think the BoT has run out of ammo to sterilize it must be almost counterproductive now, so they are moving to strong baht plus presumably increasd inflation. As speculation of a revaluation of the yuan increases so up moves the baht. Of course this is typical Chinese policy - they have destroyrf the competitiveness of their competitors not to mention the value of their forex reserves without changing their excvhange rate.